Dman

There is soo much to like about Buxton. Maybe I am goofy but I like that he calls Minnesota home. I love the State and it makes me like Buxton even more for calling Minnesota and its tough winters home. I like that he has strong character and is willing to prove that character by believing in himself to the point of taking that incentive laden contract as well as the way he handled his contract situation. That he continues to get better despite the many setbacks he has faced. The fact that his attitude is so positive after all the injury adversity he has faced. The fact that he is well liked by his teammates and that he has their backs. I like that he is confident but not arrogant that he has a certain humility about him. Beyond all those admirable traits I just love watching him play whether he is robbing some player of a hit or taking a pitcher deep or beating out an infield ground ball it is just fun to watch him play. He certainly has my respect as a person and a player and I am happy he will be around longer than I thought he might be.

First let me say I don't think you are wrong. It was a bit of a head scratcher for the Players Union not to agree to at least try a mediator. Although from what I understand given past history it hasn't worked out all that well in the past. I also agree that we make up our minds one way or the other on the good guy, bad guy scenario. I have gone back and forth on calling out each side in this ongoing process. As a fan though I feel like I have certain emotional hot points in regard to player treatment and what I feel is best for my team or my teams situation. I really don't like service time manipulation. If they play over half the games in a season then give them credit for a full season if they play less than half then give them super 2 status. That way they might as well just start the young guys at the start of the season instead of waiting. The other injustice I see is that young players that are extremely productive don't get paid enough for that production and there is no guarantee they will make it to a big payday if their arm gives out or their bat starts to slump. I get that everyone in the working world has a pay your dues moment but a baseball career can be relatively short. I think there should be a bonus system for young players that exceed production expectations. Those are things I would like to see addressed and when MLB doesn't even seem to want to look at ways to make that better well in my eyes they look like a bad guy. Same for the players union when they want to raise the cap when I am rooting for a team that cannot even compete for the best Free Agents without greatly impacting the rest of the team they can field. So that proposal makes them feel like the bad guy to me. While I see your point that both sides have their reasons for why they see things the way they do as fans I still think you end up picking sides. I do get that they agree to disagree and there will be no perfect solution but it is hard to keep emotion out of it.

Again a very nice writeup! Watching these guys getting interviewed by Seth makes you realize just how much discipline it takes just to make it to the top 500 in the college ranks. Now they have to go against the best college players to make it to MLB. The interviews give the players a much more human element but they also appear to realize that stats are pretty much what defines them and the harsh reality they can bring. Still everyone of the players Seth has interviewed appears extremely mentally tough and ready for the challenge. It is hard to believe how excited I am about the Twins 13th and 14th round picks. Festa still has projection left and has a pretty decent floor as a reliever and if he happens to find a plus curve or slider he could be a legit starter. The Twins do seem to be doing well in the later rounds with their pitcher picks. Ober was a 12th round pick. Winder was a 7th round pick. Gipson-Long a 6th round pick and in that same draft Varland was a 15th round pick. So they have found and maybe more importantly developed guys in the later rounds. So yeah at 6'6" a solid fastball and likely plus changeup I am pretty excited about Festa. Hopefully he just stays healthy and continues to get better year to year. Getting to know these guys via the video interviews really makes you want to see them make it. You can see they are going to put everything they have into being the best player they can be. The tough part about this process is that only 5% to 10% will have a role at the highest level. 90% of these players will not make it. Still as Seth has said before they are great players in their own right but it is really hard to be the best of the best.

I agree with the OP. All three players have seen their stock drop. I am still a believer in Lewis and Enlow though. Enlow looked about to break out before injury as did Lewis. There is probably going to be rust as they come back but I still think they will likely play big roles with the MLB team. I just don't know what to think about Cavaceo. Kind of feels like he might be a late bloomer? I don't think that bat is going to be as good as they hoped but it is very early and Covid really hurt his development time. Still I wish instead of a late riser they would have picked the guy I wanted in Corbin Carroll or even Bryson Stot who I wasn't in love with at the time but was a close to ready shortstop. Both of those players had known good hit tools and have been successful thus far in their careers. I hope the Twins learned a lesson there.

For fans in the know I think the Owners\MLB look pretty bad right now. I love baseball but I don't know that I can support such strongarm tactics and inability to compromise. We all know the current system was broken that certain things needed to be cleaned up. I haven't seen MLB propose anything that fixes how fans feel that players get taken advantage of especially in compensation for the years of control and service time manipulation. I know most of this is just posturing and will need to be waited out but right now I am not feeling good about the owners. Maybe it is time for the fans to get involved and write to Manfred\MLB and let them know how we feel.

Yeah there are a lot of thing to like about Winder he was in Seth's top 5 for pitchers, His WHIP was elite at under 1 so command, control and ability to get outs appears MLB ready. Even his ERA sits at a shiny 2.61. He seemed to start to have issues when he was struck by a line drive in July and he was shut down not long after. He has pretty much been money since A ball and his velocity increase in 2020. If healthy to start the season Winder, Sands, Balazovich and Strotman have the best chance to make the rotation as they pitched enough innings and appear to have the stuff to make it. Given that Balazovich still seems be in search in refining a third pitch and his WHIP being at 1.41 feels like there is some work to do there. Strotman somewhat the same deal his WHIP\control is likely the only thing holding him back He has the pitches and the velocity the command and control need to be better. So I agree with OP I think Winder has the best chance to push his way into the starting rotation this year. Cole Sands could also be in the mix I just don't know how I feel about him yet as a starter. His numbers were comparable to Winders though so he is close as well but I still think Winder gets first crack. With likely no spring training none of those guys will have a chance to make the team to start the season so they will have time to refine their stuff before getting their chance but all four could see time at the MLB level if they stay healthy. Given what I have seen I like Winders chances the best.

Yeah I like the Platoon idea with Kepler especially if Celestino proves ready as then we still get good defense and both players get to play to their strengths in the batter box.

Yeah he seems like a familiar late round Twins pitcher pick. Good control, a fastball that needs to be amped up and a plus secondary pitch to go with it. Hopefully he can follow Winder and Varland to some minor league success. I really liked how honest he was in his interview about not getting drafted on the second day and or fielding low ball offers on the second day. Guy seems to have a wicked change up and if he finds a little more velo in the fastball who knows. Ohl really has a tremendous mental makeup so he sure looks like a guy with all the tools to make it. That was a good pick for the 14th round IMO. I guess we will know more once we see him this coming season.

Nice take! I like it. I think Rortvedt can hit your .220 to .240 range with a mid 700's OPS and with the elite defense he brings I think that will be enough. I just don't see him being much better than that. I don't know exactly why but lot's of defensive first catchers never do any better with the bat than when they started. Sometimes the light comes on late and you are correct he has been young for the levels most of the way up so no reason to overly pessimistic but also remember trends do tend to remain trends so he needs to break out before it is too late IMO. He was really mashing in AAA for a while there so I have some hope but he did fall back to earth there as well. Big year for Ben and the bat and a late start to the season likely isn't going to help. I really like your Strotman take and I feel the same way. I think he is just bit more pitching feel away from being a solid starter. I get that, that is easier said than done but his delivery is so smooth, he has the velocity he just needs to find the right mix and I have to believe he could be a good one. If both he and Ryan become viable rotation pieces the Twins will be well on their way to a much needed pitching pipeline. With Winder, Sands, Balazovich and Canterino still waiting in the wings for the other spots.

Rortvedt is our best defensive catcher hands down. With Mitch getting older and all the injuries behind the plate I can see the Twins trying to give him time at 1st and DH when it makes sense. Jeffers is still a work in progress with the bat as well and a tandum of lefty Rortvedt and righty Jeffers seems like the future to me. Catchers get hurt a lot so having three guys who can be play there is good. I like that we have Rortvedt in the wings and I bet he will play a fair bit this coming year. Still not in love with Gordons somewhat wimpy bat but he is very plug and play and one of the few guys with any speed on this team so he has a solid role. Like others have mentioned I am not so sure how long he will have that role with an even better player in Martin likely being ready soon. We will see what happens and I hope Nick proves me wrong but I think he could be a trade candidate at some point. Celestino is the one we need to succeed because we need Buxton and right field insurance. If he can prove he belongs that will be huge for this team to have another plus runner and decent bat in the outfield. He has a place ready on the team if he can prove he belongs. We don't have anyone else with his skillset close to ready so we really need him to be successful and make it. I think all three guys will help this team quite a bit if they can improve on what they did last year.

Honestly I wouldn't mind that scenario too much but I am more concerned we end up with Berry or Jung who again tend to fall into positionless players that are bat first. At least Green will be an above average defender with power. Hopefully he learns to hit. I think it took Buxton a while to get there maybe Green can get there too.

There is so little out there at short that Story makes some sense. I don't love him but after Correa he is the best of what's left and it is getting tiring of having nothing at Short. That being said there are still other teams in need of a SS and something tells me we would be outbid in the end anyway. I hope Royce is going to be the answer but there are so, so many question marks there I don't know if a one year stopgap and dreaming on Royce does it for me anymore. This whole season is a question mark though so the FO might just punt until they know what they have for pitching after this year. Here's hoping they find a good solution somehow, someway.

I get that this is what things have likely come to and while I don't hate the idea I don't love it either. It sure seems like a move the Twins might make. I would guess the return for Houston would have to be light to make it work for me. Odo is still the same Odo who has trouble the third time through the order and he isn't getting any younger. Yet here we are looking for innings eaters. It could be a good play but has even greater potential to be a Happ like signing IMO. Also I wouldn't be so sure that Houston will be willing to give up Odo that easily. They have some older arms on that team and we all know that you need about 8 to 10 starters just to get through a season. If they re-sign Correa I could see them looking at dropping salary as much as possible but if they are not able to resign him then they should have the money to keep Odo if they want to. I don't find this scenario exciting but I can see it happening.

I am going to go with Rodriguez as he has shown the most so far. I like the swing and hopefully he continues to get better. He actually has decent speed as well so likely a plus defender somewhere. If I had to pick it would be him. I like Petty I really do but until I see more I just don't know what to think yet. Miller doesn't seem to have any standout tools other than being a switch hitter so again just not sure where he is at but he seems the least likely to be in the top spot to me.

Let me just say I wasn't enamored with the pick when the Twins made it. Another potential positionless player with a high K rate but good hard hit rate. His numbers are a bit deceiving as his BABIP was .526 he is not going to keep up that pace so regression is in his future. The K rate is still a concern at nearly 30% and he didn't walk much like at a 5% or 6% rate. So he has things to work on as he moves up. The thing I have to say I didn't see at the time of the draft is his good contact rate. He is a bit Miranda like in his ability to get the bat to the ball. His K rate is much higher than Miranda so he is not quite that level but anyone that can do what he did at that level where lot's of players struggled you have to dream on him a bit. I think Seth had him ranked pretty high and I too think he could end up a top 5 prospect in the Twins system before he heads to MLB. I think that was a very solid pick for the 4th round. Still has to work on that eye at the plate and make sure pitchers throw him good strikes to hit. If he does that I think he will be OK.

It feels like a trade like this is a move you make when you have more knowns in your rotation. You are only getting Glasnow for one year so things need to line up. You could be giving up good future assets with long term team control for one great year that might not matter or if injured again in 2023 then for nothing. Timing doesn't feel right and too risky for my blood but then I guess that is probably why I am not GM material.

I know SSS shouldn't cloud one's judgement but the trends he has as a bat first player make it hard to be a believer. The lack of contact and 30% K rate or more is concerning for someone who was supposed to have good contact skills. I will say the one positive he has and it is a big positive is that walk rate\eye at the plate. That is the one thing that gives me hope he can bring that K rate down and in time get more contact on more swings. It is way too early to give up on Sabato but I can sure see why there is some angst especially since he was a 1st round pick that was supposed to be bat ready.

I think the trade scenarios offered by Hayes are a bit pie in the sky. The Twins would be trading some of their best close to ready players for two years of another player because the Twins as proven in the Berrios trade don't like to extend pitchers. They would be giving up a lot for two years and with a rotation of Ober, Ryan and Bundy just how good will this team\rotation be in 2022? All three of those pitchers are pretty much unknowns at this point. Giving up Austin which is half of the Haul from the Berrios trade and including Canterino possibly a better pitcher than SWR it feels hollow to me. Why not have just kept Berrios and extended him? Sorry but I just don't see them getting that kind of trade for a starter done. If they had a solid rotation already and were just missing a piece I could maybe see it but with so much up in the air on the pitching side it seems more likely a waste than a help. They can and likely will try to pickup Pineda or someone like him but IMO I think that will be it.

Sano was brutal the first month and a half of the season and really hurt the teams offense in April when he had an OPS of about .550. Maybe the cold doesn't agree with him but he was a liability in the field and while at bat to start the season. By Mid May he starts to get it together and when the weather warms up from June to September he has OPS's of right around .800 or better. If you take out that first month he trends as a pretty potent hitter. Just a tad bit more plate discipline and a greater ability to hit stuff low and away and he could be a monster hanging around the 900 OPS range. It is a lot of if's and this will be a big year for Sano but feels early to give up on a guy that seems to be slowly working his way to elite status at the plate. While DH does make the most sense for Sano the Twins have several players that will likely need time there in Rooker, Donaldson and Garver as well as others. Not sure how it all works out but given his lack of defensive upside I would try to keep him at DH as much as possible. Call me overly optimistic but despite the K rate I feel optimistic that he can become a hitter that can find his way to 900 OPS seasons. If he stumbles this year though I think the Twins will likely end up cutting him loose. This really is an important year for the big guy.

I think it is a bit of a stretch to say the Twins let Donaldson down. 2020 turned out to be shortened by COVID and Donaldson himself never really got on track that year and the Twins had a pretty fluky year in 2021 where nothing went their way to start the season. Donaldson was brought in to solidify the Bomba Squad from 2019 and make the lineup incredibly deep with power and they needed his right handed bat. He was supposed to be a piece that would help them take the next step. So far that plan hasn't worked out and now with so much unknown pitching, 2022 looks like it might not end well either. Maybe those young pitchers turn out OK this year for the Twins and this team is the hunt for the division title but it feels like a long shot. I think the Twins will keep Donaldson to start the season there are not really many teams in need of his services at the moment right now anyway and if you look back he did not have ton of suitors for his services in free agency other than Atlanta. If Donaldson is healthy and has an 800 OPS or higher and the Twins are out of it I could see them trying to trade him at the deadline. By then another another team might have injured players and need his services or see him as a better option for DH\3rd base going on a playoff run. His salary will be further paid down as well. There doesn't seem to be any reason to trade him until the deadline IMO. I will say this about Josh. He has been nothing but a good team mate who cares about playing winning baseball. He has been what the Twins wanted when they signed him it just seems like things moved sideways on this team and its outlook since they signed him. Still there doesn't seem to be any reason to trade him until the deadline IMO. If the Twins do find some luck they might need his bat yet.

Don't know much about Povich as most analysts had little info or at least little to say about him. The most I have heard about him is on this site and Seth stating he was an arm that turned heads in camp. I am hoping Doc's take turns out to be true. We could use a good lefty or two to balance out the rotation.

In 2017 it looked like the Twins might have something in Granite. He had an 867 OPS in AAA that year and got called up to the big leagues. Unfortunately he never put up numbers close to that again. I guess once teams figure out a weakness and you cannot adjust then at some point you hang up the spikes.

Yeah I tend to agree with you. There isn't much that they can get in free agency that will matter at this point. They still could pull off a meaningful trade but I am not holding my breath there either. With the Berrios trade and lack of action on getting top end arms it feels like they have left themselves too thin on the pitching side. It really feels like this is a take your lumps with the younger arms and see what sticks and or maybe get a breakout or two or three and suddenly this is a team that can compete. I think they are mainly going to keep the reinforcements internal though.

Hard to say how Free Agency will go after the lockout and new CBA. Will it be a feeding frenzy to try and sign players as fast as possible or will teams want to figure out what they have and take their time getting there. Personally, I think things will happen fast. They gain two 40 man spots when they can put Enlow and Maeda on the injured list but other than a shortstop and another starter I am not sure what else the Twins plan to do this year in free agency. The 40 man is pretty full of younger players so unless they are trading they might have to lose guys to add guys. Thorpe, Jax and maybe Stashak seem like the only pitchers that they could remove if they find something substantially better. I guess I don’t see them being overly active unless there are players out there that look like bargains once the merry go round stops.

I have been worried about Duran being a pen arm for quite a while. There were a fair number of scouts that seemed to question whether he could hold up to starting pretty much from the time Minnesota got him in trade. Granted with 2020 off and 2021 extremely short it is hard to say where he is at or could be at stamina wise in the future. Still given the high velocity arm and not an over the top K9 I think the pen looks like his best chance for success. I think SWR as a pick is a bit premature. He is only 21 and still getting a feel for all his pitches. That being said I can understand why he was picked as he fell off pretty badly after a great start to the season and it makes you wonder if he will have what it takes to keep it going all year as a starter. Still I don't think I would pick a 21 year old for this list especially when you have Vallimont that would be a better one to add to this list. I know Sands has had his issue's and he stopped and started a bit again last year but I thought he held his own as starter last year. There is lot's of chatter from analysts that see him in the bullpen but he seems a bit like a bull dog type pitcher and he might be able to remain a starter if his stuff plays at the MLB level. FWIW remember a lot of analysts had Canterino pegged as a pen arm as well. Hard to say how any of these guys will turn out in the end but if this were my list I would have Duran, Vallimont and Jax as the guys most likely to be relievers.