Dman

I was keeping an eye on Osiris last year especially after dominating in low A. He slipped a bit in High A as his WHIP went up quite a bit. I assume due to adjusting to a tougher level. Not sure what to think just yet as you generally need to wait until AA and AAA to see how pitchers are going to do and the jump to MLB is even tougher. His A ball numbers give me something to dream on though. Reggie's numbers were solid but I have to say I was disappointed that he was hurt so much of the year. It was a tough year for our pitchers last year. Hopefully next year is better but just too little info to form any real opinion on Reggie Grace. I don't know why but my general impression on Casey Legumina was I questioned whether he had good enough stuff or not but looking at the numbers again it looks like he had a solid debut. I guess I must have seen the shaky starts? Vallimont is crazy inconsistent. I have seen him walk the bases loaded only to strike out the next two or three guys. Lots of K's but lot's of Walks. It was the beef MLB.com's profile had on him early on and it doesn't look like much has changed. I can see why the Twins added him but once again he has a big year ahead of him. Needs to harness his stuff if he ever hopes to make it. Moran was dominant in the minors last year but he was struggling as the season went on IMO. Tough debut at the MLB level but at least he has been there done that now. That change is a hammer but I worry about his Fastball getting hit out of the park. It was hittable in years past maybe it is better now but if he solves that he could be elite. His K rate has always been elite but control and and the fastball are the things that have held him back to this point IMO. I hope he reaches his ceiling I feel like I have been watching and waiting for him to make it forever.

His domination (K-rate and ERA) remind me of what Bailey Ober did in his time in the minors granted Ober doesn't have the big fastball Canterino does still their K rates were high, WHIP low and ERA low. If he stays healthy I think he will succeed when he gets the call. Has to stay healthy though and that is not easy to do as a pitcher. With health he could have positioned himself for spot in the rotation this year but hopefully he has another good year and is ready to start in 2023.

I tend to agree with you. The Twins do not have much for speed in the system so Martin is more valuable than others would be. Granted he isn't a burner as MLB has his speed rated at 55 but the only guys we have that are faster would be Lewis and Cavaco who aren't exactly proven hitters. Pretty much everyone else is average or below average. Having a good eye at the plate and an elite hit tool also makes it tough to want to get rid of him. I also don't see the Twins turning around and trading for Montas or some other pitcher on a two year deal who they won't extend because of years or whatever. I mean if they wouldn't extend one of the most durable pitchers in Berrios I can't see them ever doing it. If it is going to be a trade it will need to be in the form of the Odo or Maeda deals. A super young prospect whose potential looks good but is unknown or a highly rated relief pitcher with maybe some C prospects thrown in. We have seen the Twins deal young talent for players with Gil for Cave and Yanoa for Garcia. If there is a trade to be made that is how it will get done IMO. Like the Rays and A's they are loathe to trade close to ready future assets for a few years of control of players who they cannot or will not extend. Given the Twins trade history I think Martin is very safe to stay a Twin,

I like Bryant I really do but we have Donaldson and then there is Rooker, Kirilloff, Larnach and possibly Miranda to find room for let alone Arraez once in a while for left field. You have Sano and Garver to DH along with Donaldson. It doesn't feel like a match made in heaven to me. He will probably get a 7 to 8 year deal for big time money and he has been injured and is only getting older. It just doesn't feel like a good use of money to me. I would rather they spend on pitching than another corner guy. I just don't see the Twins doing something like this.

Yeah the Rod Carew, George Brett days were fun. To the eye hits are more beautiful than walks but I still think the home run is king and I think that is what has brought us to where we are today. That dribbler through the infield is harder to come by these days so why not swing for the fences and put a run on the board with one swing? The romance with batting average seems to be gone maybe not from a fan perspective but as a strategy to win it has been replaced with OPS.

The name of the game is OPS right now and the analytics tend to show batting average is not the best way to impact OPS. Slugging has the greatest impact on runs scored and even though mighty Casey strikes out a lot when he does connect he scores a run or gets a double or triple. OBP is also important to OPS thus taking walks becomes greater than batting average. Most of the guys on this list have an OBP in the mid 300's. Rosario was a free swinger with decent BA but he didn't walk much and his OBP and thus OPS suffered for it. Eye at the plate Hard hit rate are the popular kids right now. The three outcome game (K, Walk, HR) looks like it is here to stay and the players stats above show they are being groomed that way.

Nice list! I had Palacios making the Twins 40 man especially since they needed SS help but I guess I was wrong. I still think he gets taken in Rule V. If the Twins do lose him I think they will regret not adding him but we will see. They must have been saving that spot for a veteran SS with plans on Lewis playing there eventually but I still think Palacios would have been a better bet than Gordon but they know best. At any rate he had a monster season and was a big part his teams success last year. Was great too see him break out and given his past years performance was not expected by me at all. I agree with Seth that Mack turned the bat around late in the season. Hoping he has figured some things out as he could end up being a versatile player. Let me just say that I thought Contreras was never going to make it. His 2019 season was pretty brutal at the plate and I always liked De La Trinadad better. This past year though he was money. He showed really good power this year and he plays solid defense. I think he would be a good Jake Cave replacement. Definitely someone to watch next year. I was a big fan of the Holland draft pick but his swing still is concerning. The power is there but so is the swing and miss. Hopefully things go better next year. Gray started off pretty good and then tanked most of the rest of the season. Have to say I was pretty disappointed. The eye and bat have a ways to go IMO.

I tend to agree with you but I believe in prospects and their value too much and I don't like risking the future with trades unless my team is player or two away. Still you never know what might be out there on the trade market. I never thought Odo could be had for a longshot shortstop prospect, a prospect not even close to the top 100. While I didn't love trading Graterol for Maeda that trade helped the Twins win the division in 2020. That being said I think they likely will role with what they have this year and pick up at least one and likely two bounce back candidates in FA. They have to feel Winder, Sands and Strotman are close to ready and who knows if Balazovich and SWR figure things out they could be in the mix as well. If Duran is dealing he could be bullpen help for them. Canterino could figure into the pen as well. If a few of those guys work out that could be a lot of years of control and good pitching for years to come.

Cruz has been a bit frustrating to watch to this point IMO. When he is on and forcing batters to swing he can dominate. When he can't hit the zone consistently he tends to get lit up. Batters just take walks or let him get behind and sit on his fastball. He has quite a bit of work to do yet as his WHIP indicates but he throws hard and if harnesses it he could be even more dominant than he already is K wise at least. I was always nervous about Rijo until he started throwing 95 or so. He has an elite Curve I believe so if starter is not in the cards he could be elite out of the pen depending on if he can get his fastball to play up. Would hate to lose him so hopefully he comes back and does well. Beck had a really good year last year, Didn't know he needed\had TJ surgery that is a bummer. Not sure if he can make it all the way to MLB or not with what he has but he surprised me this past year so who knows. I was totally down on the Gross pick when the Twins made it, but he did well IMO. He was more than solid most of the year. He wore down toward the end of the season though. I was surprised at the K rate and it will be interesting to see if can continue to do as well at the higher levels. It is a pretty nice group of arms to have at the bottom of your list of 30. I will be very interested in your top 15 but even 15 through 25 should have some names to get excited about. Thanks for separating out pitchers and hitters it is more apples to apples and we all get to see a few extra names we normally wouldn't see.

I don't know enough about Duran and Feliz to comment But Valdez had great year in 2019. Was not happy to see him back slide in 2021. Granted the competition in the FCL is tougher since they are the only big short season league now. I know he has power just needs to make more contact. Big year for him next year. Bechtold had me believing in his bat a while there but then it seemed like he lost it at the end of the season. From what I have read he is a solid defender the bat is the only thing holding him back. I just am getting the feeling his hit tool isn't going to be quite good enough but he will get another year to prove me wrong. The knock on Helman was no power and he changed that in 2021. I still think he has a chance to make it as a utility player. Not sure it will be with the Twins but he has a chance. I think Spencer Steer, Julien will be better candidates but we will have to wait and see.

This article isn't a huge surprise to me and likely isn't to many as it is pretty much what this FO has been dong since they got here. I believe they have signed zero pitchers to anything over two years in FA and traded for one (Maeda) whose price tag was hard to beat and LA needed to move. This is pretty much what they do every year. The one major difference this year is that they do have about a dozen interesting arms bubbling up and if healthy a solid half dozen that could be more than a number 5 starter. So maybe just maybe this the year we see some pitching breakouts. This team needs a lot of them to compete with the big teams. I have to say my optimism for young pitching was sapped some last year with all the injuries in the minors. Arms are just so hard to develop and hold onto for very long. I hope this a breakout year but if it isn't we might be back to square one.

Yeah I will admit I am biased when it comes to Sabato and it comes from watching him become an almost 2 outcome player as he walked or K'd in most of his at bats early in the season. It seemed like his bat had a hole in it as he massively struggled to make contact in general. He did start to pick up stream late in the second half and he was impressive at High A. Maybe unfairly but I discounted High A to some degree because of the small sample size and because with so many pitchers falling off late in the season his hit mistakes prone approach seemed likely to be more effective. Still the numbers are the numbers and he did well at high A. Jullian and his bloated BABIP probably wasn't a great comparison but they both started in A ball and Jullien had his own contact struggles but when I watched him he at least he was making contact. His K rate was pretty high as well I think higher than Sabato's but he was actually hitting the ball as well. Should all of those hits have fallen in probably not but it certainly gave those watching the impression he could make good contact bat to ball. So yeah good point on your part as I didn't look at BABIP just used my impression of watching Jullien getting hits and a near 300 average at A ball. A 451 BABIP is no where near sustainable so you could say his batting average was easily 100 points artificially high at A ball. Although his patient approach probably did get him better pitches to hit. Predictably his Average fell to around 250 at High A but his slugging was actually slightly better there as well. At any rate your factual point stands that Sabato was better than Jullien by a good margin at high A. While Rodriguez didn't hit that well my main point is that he is only 18 years old and his OPS was higher than Sabato who is 22 facing pitchers that are even more erratic than Sabato. He has 4 more years to be as bad as Sabato we will have to wait and see. Maybe Rodriquez does stay K prone and can't take a walk hard to say haven't been able to watch him so I don't know anything for sure but the numbers seem to indicate that if he can do that at 18 he likely can get much better by age 22. It was more a point about pitching and if someone 4 years younger can do just as well if not better than Sabato then how good is he? At any rate you did prove your point well. I am biased and I can see that for sure now. I do hope I am wrong and Sabato becomes the next Harmon Killebrew but he will need to show me a lot more next year to convince me.

While I haven't completely lost faith in Sabato and SSS's cannot be relied upon I think if you watched him swing in A ball it would cause concern. I saw a guy swinging out of his shoe's with the barrel not even close to the ball. Especially on breaking stuff. I get that it takes time to recognize those pitches and lay off but his ability to make contact appears limited to me. He is not an Eddie Rosario I can hit almost anything kind of bat. He is more a I think I can guess what is coming and swing out of my shoes type of bat. I am sorry but I don't buy into the hitting better with pitchers with more control. What does that say about Eduoard Jullien who was in the same league had the same walk rate or better and he hit better than Sabato. Or how about Emmanual Rodriguez who is younger and in and even lower league dealing with pitcher's with even greater lack of control and his OPS is much higher? I think it comes down to ability to put the barrel on the ball and I am concerned Sabato might not have the same level of ability some others do. Does two SSS in an inaugural season tell us much? Probably not. I kind of look at Sabato as maybe like a Nick Pratto type player. Hopefully he can adjust and get better and find that breakout season. His High A numbers give some hope but he has a ways to go to convince me he even gets a shot at MLB ball after what I saw last year.

That is a decent top 10. I would quibble with whether a few of those qualify as breakout candidates but all the names are intriguing. SWR was really good to start the season and like a lot of pitchers last year ran out of gas half way through the season. He was very young for AA and proved he belonged there at least to start the season. He has as good a chance as any of the Twins top pitchers to get the call next year. Soularie does look like a good pick to bounce back. He didn't show much power last year but with the broken foot probably understandable. The question about him in the draft seemed to be if he would have enough power in his bat to make it as he didn't really have a strong position to play other than left field. I know the Twins were thinking 2nd base as well but they have a glut of talent at 2nd right now he has a better path to left field if he can find a power stroke. After watching Sabato struggle last year I really question his ability to make it. I think if you just don't throw him any fastballs he will always have a high K rate. He looks like Rooker part 2 to me but it is early. He does have better plate discipline than Rooker so maybe just maybe he can get better outcomes at the plate. He had one of the more brutal starts for a college first round pick that I can remember. He is a long shot IMO but I hope he figures it out and becomes a force at the plate. Like everyone I love Durans potential but he hasn't pitched much and there are always questions about arms that throw 100MPH because they get stressed and seem prone to injury issues. Right now he feels more like a tease than a sure thing. He has nowhere to go but up after the last two years so should be a good breakout candidate. My guess is he gets injured again and likely needs surgery but we'll see. Agree with your number one Rodriguez. The FCL was a tougher league last year and he excelled as a young player. With more experience that K rate should get better. He looks like he could be special but it is early.

We see things pretty much the same. Unless the FO blows me away with some major trades for starting pitching I see things playing out pretty much as you described. If things go their way they could be a 500 club maybe slightly better but given what it takes to be a playoff team these days it doesn't look like we have what we need. I would have given them a C to C- for the offseason so far and like you it is because of the structure of the Buxton contract. They got a potential super star player signed to a deal that covers for injury. When does that ever happen in baseball? I think that was a pretty major accomplishment and picks up their grade from D range. The rest of their moves mainly non moves are nothing to write home about. They took a flyer on a pitcher and snuck another pitcher they wanted through to the minor's. There are still moves to be made but I think this lockout will last until close to spring training so will interesting to see how things ultimately shake out.

I can agree with this for the most part. The owners are not showing their books and not negotiating in good faith. I think there needs to be a solid floor and I believe the owners proposed something along those lines. I am fine with a floor but what is the players association doing about creating fairer competition for Free Agents? I want my team to be able to compete in Free Agency and they currently can't. If they want me on their side they need to work on things like that as well. Until they do I am sorry but I am with the evil owners who at least afford my team some measure of fairness. Even if it is small it is better than anything the players association is offering.

I agree that if we don't want the players association to go just with the big teams the floor has to be higher. The money has to be spent on the players not just pocketed by the owners. I do think teams like Tampa, Oakland, and maybe Pittsburgh and Miami need to be moved to cities that can support them or contracted so that the floor can be at least 100M. I want to be behind the players believe me but proposing to make half the league less competitive is a non starter for me. As a fan I really do like caps as it creates a fair playing field. Everyone has the same things to work with they just need to make better decisions than the other clubs. I get why the players don't want a cap as they have no idea what the owners are making and it seems likely that it is a lot. I hate this whole thing but as a fan my greatest concern is fairer competition among teams. I don't see either side as having a proposal I am in complete agreement on but so far the players side with less revenue sharing is where they have lost me completely.

I don't think it makes negotiations tougher lets be honest the owners hold all the cards here. They can hold out forever and move to use MiLB players. The players are not going to risk losing all that money over a strike. It won't work and the owners will come out ahead one way or another. Players will start to cave one by one. There is too much at stake especially for the highest paid players. Personally I am pissed at the players union and hope their lawyer has to choke on his proposal. He doesn't have the best interests of baseball in mind. If I was a revenue sharing team I would propose major league baseball buy me out for market value and take 1 billion in salary off the books for all of baseball and see what kind of win the players get. Let them lose hundreds of jobs and lose millions of fans because his proposal does half of the teams no good. They might as well not exist and if he thinks less competition for players is a good thing then he has to be one of the biggest fools alive. If he wanted to make the players look bad he has done an excellent job. No one in their right mind could come to the conclusion that what the players are proposing is good for the teams or the players. This guy is dumber than a rock. If the players association lawyer was trying to find a way to make the game more competitive for all that is something I could get behind as a fan but personally I hope he chokes on this proposal. He has me on the side of the owners right now and I hope most baseball fans see him for the clown he is.

I don't love the owners either and I agree with you that this is about money for both sides. To me it looks like the players union is cozying up to the richer more powerful teams owners as this proposal benefits them as it weakens their competition and strengthens their pocket book. The owners of the top 10 to 15 revenue generating teams have nothing to fear in this proposal absolutely nothing. The bottom 10 teams have much more to lose. As a fan of actually one the better lower end teams it stinks that we can't compete in the FA market. How many revenue sharing teams came out with the winning bid for one of the big FA signings this year? Any? I can't think of one. Things are skewed enough as it is and they expect us as fans to hang onto hope every year? The players association wants to make my team even less competitive? Yeah they will never have me on their side with proposals like this, never.

In my mind Manfred isn't completely wrong. If that is what the Players union truly wants I would counter propose contracting all teams that currently need revenue sharing to be competitive. That would allow the other 20 teams to be closer in revenue and then compete at a closer revenue level which would allow for what the Players union wants in terms of player movement and flexibility. All teams would have close to the same amount of money to compete for FA's so there wouldn't be as large a disparity. Granted the players would lose around 300 jobs but they can gain the flexibility they require. Otherwise the players union needs to understand there needs to be a cap of some kind and greater revenue sharing to allow teams to compete in the FA market fairly. So for me yeah what the players union is proposing is likely the death of my team maybe not right away but most likely eventually. It would strengthen the larger revenue teams and those fans would be happy. It would also cost the players lots of jobs but increased pay for the ones who remain. With less revenue sharing and a shorter path to free agency teams like Tampa, Oakland, Pittsburgh, and Miami really shouldn't be included in MLB anymore. It would take a miner miracle for them to compete. They are able to now only because they control players just long enough to make a run and or can sometimes trade their way back to relevancy. What the Players union is proposing is their certain death. So to me yeah I think Manfred is right their proposal will help the rich teams get richer and the poor teams get poorer. Eventually teams won't be able to draw fans when all their good players move on after 3 or 4 years to teams that can pay them more in free agency. I just don't see how this works without more revenue sharing and a cap or contraction to keep spending at a fairer level. IMO I don't think it will be good for baseball but who knows maybe getting rid of the weaker teams will make the sport stronger?

While I agree in principal I am not so certain reality wouldn't be different. I remember the NFL strike and the replacement players. People still watched and some cities came out ahead because instead of having a bad team suddenly they were competitive. Fans root for their home team. If the product is all MiLB players for every team then that is the pool. Would some fans leave and never come back sure but I am not certain enough of them to make a large enough difference and over time I think it would even out. Might take a while like the last strike but MLB will still be there the machine is just too big. Comparing MLB tickets\games to MiLB is disingenuous. Most MiLB sites are in smaller cities, the players don't stay there long as they move up levels, they don't have a TV presence\advertising or the marketing the MLB clubs enjoy. MiLB serves a completely different purpose as that talent bubbles up to MLB which is promoted as the best of the best so that is the league that becomes the most important to fans. If the MLB players were locked out indefinitely then the best MiLB players would now be the best of the best that fans would watch. I don't see that the players have a ton of leverage here. I think they should focus on service time issues as I think that is something fans can get behind. I agree that players should get at least 50% of the pie revenue speaking and I don't like that we don't get to see the teams books because to me that means they are hiding things. Things that would most likely show them in a bad light. I am not for either side really but probably on the players side more given what I know. The issue is there is only so much they can do if the owners don't open the books. If they could get that then maybe public outrage would be enough to change things but until then what MLB is offering is likely the best they are going to get.

I am a prospect lover but after watching pitcher after pitcher go down last year it is harder to keep faith in those up and coming pitching prospects. I tend to agree with you Duran and Canterino seem in danger of arm issues and I personally don't count on either one staying a starter. They both threw limited innings last year so their ability to help the team this year seems unlikely. Sands had his own stops and starts last year but his stats are as good as Winders and Balazovic wasn't exactly dominant last year. Winder looked pretty good until he got hit with a baseball but still only 72 innings last year. Strotman threw the most innings (101) but his WHIP is currently so high he won't make it as a starter. I know they all were coming off a year layoff and injuries seemed up league wide but really we only have 3 legit guys that might be ready this year as starters and even then unlikely to make it the entire season. So yeah I agree with you that if they truly are depending entirely on the young arms we are sunk. Still I hope we get and arm or two to work out and I hope Duran and Canterino can prove more durable in 2022. The tough thing is the offense could be pretty good this coming year so if we have the pitching we probably could compete. Still with all the best FA pitchers off the board they will have to get lucky with the leftovers to help the pitching staff. I think we are in for another tough year.

While lot's of owners did complain ours did go the extra mile during the pandemic. Mr. Pohlad also was willing to spend coming out of the pandemic a year where revenue was down or in the red the year before. So when player like Nelson Cruz say Minnesota is a top notch organization I think we have proof to back that up. A strike could cost owners revenue moving forward as fans get frustrated and move on to different pastimes.

Yeah I think I got that notion on this board. I don't know then he likely has quite a hill to climb to make it. We'll see if he stays on the 40 man.

I think Winder has a chance depending on what they do in free agency other than him for pitchers pretty much no one. I think it will be last year all over again pretty much. Enough vets to cover the start of the season and as they get injured or fail then fill in from there. I expect it will fail just as it did last year and then the younger players will get their chance. If the guys they get perform well then great we should have decent team but I am not banking on that. They are already counting on two young (rookie) pitchers (Ober and Ryan) Jax has a shot to make the pen. Winder could end up in the mix with a good spring and or AAA dominance. Moran might have a shot at pen spot or injury replacement. Same with Sands. They might not start the season with those guys but they are likely an injury away from being called up. So the rotation likely looks young already. They have Strotman, Balazovich and maybe SWR in the wings as well if they start off well in AAA they could be callups. Duran, Vallimont, Canterino, Moran could all be pen options if needed. There are a lot of young (rookie) guys they could funnel through IMO depending on how they perform this year. Given how the FA pitching market shook out I don't see what the Twins can do to meaningfully improve their pitching other than depend on some younger talent or work out a trade. That is just my opinion though.