Richie the Rally Goat

I don’t have an agenda, I like data and want to frame up outcomes vs prediction. We know the outcomes based on how the events transpired. We don’t know what the outcomes would have been if the events were managed differently. I’m using FIP to predict what would have happened in if the Bullpen pitched fewer innings and Sonny Gray pitched more innings. The assertion that Sonny Gray would have pitched the same, were he to have pitched more innings than he did, is false. We don’t know what what the outcomes would have been. Also, Sonny Gray got shut down after 119.2 innings, due to injury. Were he to pitch more innings if he pitched longer starts, the theory behind hundred pitch starts says “no, a pitcher only has so many bullets in the chamber, and it’s better to get 100 high quality bullets, than 100 high quality and 20 bad ones”. So why FIP as a predictor, rather than ERA as a outcome? Because I don’t know about the meatball that Sonny Gray never served up for a grand slam or the complete game shutout he never pitched, because Baldelli had a quick hook. FIP is the best predictor I have.

If we want to know what would happen if we made a change, that’s a prediction and FIP fits better.

I’m a goat, I’m covered in hair. Thanks for asking

Mahle and Maeda are both coming back from injury, Sonny Gray pitches 120 innings per year on average, and Joe Ryan pitched a personal record 147 innings last year…. I bet the cumulative long man innings exceed Maeda’s and maybe Mahle too

It’s absolutely the place to be critical. Just because I support the manager in his general use of the bullpen doesn’t mean I agree with all of his moves. He started the season handed a bad pitching staff, and the trades backfired with injury (Paddack and Mahle). For instance. I think Rocco/FO should have played the St Paul shuttle on long relief/piggy backing to not blow out the bullpen. Rocco never really had that as an option, but I don’t really know how the dynamic works and Rocco’s ability to lobby.

Name IP ERA FIP Caleb Thielbar 59.1 3.49 2.42 Jhoan Duran 67.2 1.86 2.52 Griffin Jax 72.1 3.36 3.17 Jovani Moran 40.2 2.21 1.78 Trevor Megill 45.0 4.80 3.29 Emilio Pagan 63.0 4.43 4.21 Tyler Duffey 44.0 4.91 4.79 331.5 3.58 3.16857142857143 we don’t know how Gray would have pitched if he wasn’t pulled, but… The Twins had 7 relievers pitch 40 innings last year. The average ERA for those 7 pitchers was 3.58, compared to Gray’s 3.08 ‘22, 3.56 ERA career, 4.19 ‘21. the bullpen had on average 3.17 FIP compared to Gray’s 3.4/3.67/3.99. FIP is the best predictor of ERA (better than ERA) and so I’d still stick with the bullpen was the right choice.

Besides the metrics that show Bundy and Archer were two of the worst pitchers in the MLB last year 1) Joe Ryan pitched 147 innings, that was a record for him in his professional career 2) Sonny Gray 119.2 innings last year. He had a 3.08 ERA last year compared to 3.56 career, 4.19 2021. Last year he had 3.4 FIP, compared to 3.67 career, 3.99 2021. He’s pitched 1,192 innings in his 10 year career. Drum roll please….. that’s 119.2 innings per season. I’d say the Twins managed Gray’s innings pretty well, and stretched Ryan where it made sense.

THIS! If Forbes is accurate, it’s as much an indicator of past on the field product as it is the current year, if not more. Winning begets winning

That and last year’s record is the best predictor of ticket sales.

The Pohlads own Go 96.3 and B96 radio stations, quit their contract with AM1500 to air the Twins radio broadcasts on their own radio station which then brought in premium advertising revenue. That advertising revenue would not have been on the Twins’ books. I have no idea how much, but that was something that happened until they closed down the station. The Pohlads also owned Victory Sports One Network and aired Twins games there and received Ad revenue and cable network fees as a result. they owned a share of FSN (which was born out of the victory sports stuff) which may have brought them some ad revenue, I’m not sure how a minor ownership stake works in that case. It is unclear, but I wonder if they still own the minor stake in BSN today. I can’t find a reference. the Pohlads own dozens of companies, some of which do advertising and media, like Bring Me The News. Pohlad companies are a privately held, so they don’t have to publicly report earnings, so it’s hard to know where all their earnings come from, but they have in the past earned monetarily from the team. It makes sense to assume they continue to.

100%! case in point, the Green Bay Packers as a publicly held team, with public financials were one of the more cash poor (I know…) NFL franchises. Then they bought up all the houses and retail around Lambeau and built up the Title Town district and the Atrium which turned things around quite a bit (along with less Covid angst). this is the conundrum with the analysis. You have to scope the analysis to the question. But the impact to the owners (any owner, not just the Pohlads) is intertwined with many holdings. It’s beyond the scope of the question, but it’s not the reason the owner continues to own the team. why do we care if the Twins turn a profit for the Pohlads? For me, because if it ceases to be profitable they might sell or slash payroll. The devil I know is better than the devil I don’t. how do I know the Twins turn a profit for the Pohlads? I don’t.

Agreed, to an extent, that Forbes isn’t an objective source. Forbes is designed to make celebrities out of rich people. Forbes’ estimates are designed to make billionaires look as human and normal as possible while still flaunting their fabulous wealth. The Pohlads or their proxies may have even helped craft the message. one of the other questions I have, beyond the validity of the estimates. Is what other Pohlad entities besides the Twins benefit in what ways because of the Twins? even if the Twins themselves aren’t profitable or as profitable as the Pohlads would have historically liked them to be, how much revenue does the team drive to other ventures? as hard as the op is to actually answer, it’s even harder when you consider the Pohlads own media and advertising firms, at one point they owned a stake in FSN that could still be the case w/ BSN. The benefits and costs go beyond the game on the field, and without GAAP audit, we’ll never really know. so taking this with a huge grain of salt. Fun read, not news.

Agreed, but if you go too far with this strategy, you become the AAA farm team for the Yankees again. Trading Thielbar would return very little, keeping Thielbar costs very little. Why reduce the effectiveness of the pen in 2023 for very little return?

Awesome to see Royce hungry to get on the field but understanding and trusting in the process. Speaks well to Royce and also the FO in effective communication. Great Article Ted and great candor from Royce!

I’ll bet the over.

Odds makers use a half so you can’t guess it exactly. The first two guessses were 11 and 10, so set the line at 10.5

Welcome to TD

Scotch and Kool-Aid is an “interesting” combination

In my house it was lime. I remember being very upset with my aunt when babysitting me used the green stained wooden spoon to make soup because I was afraid the soup would take the kool-aid stain off

It’s Spring! Mitts are popping’, everyone is in the best shape of their life! World Series or Bust!

Agreed, but only if it’s a massive bargain like that. Relievers shine really bright and burn out fast. The Twins already have him locked up through age 29 season where velocity and K rate start to (on average) drop precipitously.

In retrospect, a 28 or 29 year old obliterating baseballs in the equivalent of AA with a very high K rate probably doesn’t translate to obliterating baseballs in MLB. If he was 22 or 23, I can’t imagine the posting fee and salary… Park was fairly cheap at 24 million total.

Predictions for an entire team formulated from one inning each by two different pitchers from a very early spring training game? Confirmation of what?

Agreed, best of luck to Martin that it is a mild sprain and he rests/recovers his way back to the diamond quickly!