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Hawkeye Bean Counter

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Everything posted by Hawkeye Bean Counter

  1. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    No offense, but the pitching prospects since 2017 has been historically bad. You have multiple years that have been labeled as the worst pitching prospect classes in the modern era. When your prospect pool has been bad it is more likely you will have much more variability on success. Add in 2020 and overall the Twins have had a good philosophy to avoid pitching in the early rounds. I could see that changing if by some chance Skenes were to drop. Dollander is a possibility but I still think they would go with a bat.
  2. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    For the hitters this feels right. We need to remember the Twins have the 4th amount of salary pool available, so in reality we can outbid the pick in front of us which does give the Twins some maneuverability. Langford is my choice. I actually do prefer Clark over Jenkins due to a better compact swing.. I think the Twins could have a strong case at going underslot with any of the available prospects and who would do a deal with them. I think the big question mark is does anyone in the top 5 take a chance on Dollander. A consensus #1 pick at the beginning of the year. For me as it stands. 1. Skenes ( seems like a pipe dream). Skenes fits the Twins to a T. Has their prototypical build and Wes Johnson has coached him. 2. Crews (also likely a pipe dream). One of best hitting prospects in a decade. 3. Langford (possibility could drop). Has actually had better numbers than Crews this year. 4. Dollander (has at least shown high production at the upper levels) 5. Clark 6. Jenkins 7. Gonzalez 8. Lowder 9. Teel
  3. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Small stats can fluctuate greatly. Cano is up to just under a 1 ERA. But he has given up 3 runs in his last 6 innings pitched. Still hasn't hit a multiple home run situation that can inflate the ERA quickly. Hamilton and Cano both look like good relief options, something the Twins could use. Jorge Lopez stats are not bad, a .5 WAR, but most here would like more consistency. We are still ahead on the trade front overall. Ultimately the infield will be some combination of Correa, Lewis, Kiriloff and Lee for the majority of the next 4-6 years. That only changes if a wildcard can outperform someone else. Julien will most likely become a depth piece. Steer ultimately didn't have spot and we didn't have enough 40 man spots as is last year. We were going to lose some players. In hind sight Hamilton and Cano both would have been nice to still have on the team, but I am not sure our staff could fix Cano.
  4. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    This year it is going to be a 3 horse race between Miranda, Farmer and Lewis - as long as Polanco stays healthy. We have Polanco for one more year, but the near to medium term outlook for players looks to be 3rd Lee, SS Correa, 2nd Lewis, 1st Kiriloff or some combination of those players. If Miranda outperforms another player fine. However I think thats why the Twins felt comfortable dealing Steer last year for Mahle. We have ample options for the infield positions, and if someone fails we have backups. You have Julien, Helman, Miranda, possibly Martin or Severino that look like they have potential to be a big league player or fill in. That also doesn't consider the other higher drafted short stop prospects at the lower levels.
  5. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Just what we have coming in the future, I don't think a deal with Mahle makes sense unless he does a very team friendly deal and even in that case I think its better for the Twins to move on. Pitchers for next year - Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Varland, Winder, Paddack and possible QO to Sonny Gray. That ignores SWR and a few other prospects if they made large jumps between now and next year.
  6. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Arreaz tends to start the year out hot and then level out as minor injuries begin to nag and seem to effect his performance. When refreshed and fully off his new workout regime he has become a beast for the early part of the season.
  7. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    That ignores Gray, Lopez and Ryan. Also part of the reason we got Paddack as cheap as we did was because of the elbow concern.
  8. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Cossetti may give the Twins enough leverage they won't feel they need to pick a catcher early. Keep picking a couple each year in the mid to late rounds and see if you can catch lightning in a bottle. The other advantage is the reemergence of Ryan Jeffers. Cossetti has definitely been a revelation this year.
  9. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I see little chance Teel is an option at 5. The only way it works is that you can get 2 players around the 15-20 range to be a packaged deal effectively and can under slot Teel and overslot the other player, potentially a pitcher like a Thomas White (6' 5") who is projectible and has the height and size the Twins like, also low and behold another left handed pitcher. However I think that goes out the door when I think something really good falls into their laps. Don't know why but still think the 2nd best hitter drops to 5 in Wyatt Langford, and I think the Twins jump all over it. Otherwise I think the Twins will think they can fix Dollander and make him back into the #1 pitcher he was.
  10. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Lopez is a very good reliever. Yes from Time to time he might get in trouble, but unlike Pagan, he has the stuff to get out of the problem a majority of the time. He is steady and reliable. He has already give us .8 WAR. Right now I just want Duran to dial it in a bit more. Otherwise things are going very well so far. Still wish we would have kept Coloumbe, but Brock Stewart has been a nice addition so far. Pagan still scares me. Other than that, I think we can find a cheap addition if needed to bolster the bullpen this summer if needed.
  11. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Get as many good hitters as you can, and try to hit on a couple pitchers lower in the draft. Trade excess hitters for pitching. So far the formula has worked and we should have more pitching prospects coming to help support the big leagues here this year and in future years. I am becoming more and more confident the managements approach is working. However we just need Correa to start hitting again.
  12. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    The issue is we gave up on him, San Diego gave up on him, a team that could have really utilized him this year Kansas City gave up on him. He looked like AAAA prospect. To me some things are up for fair discussion. Questioning the trade for Mahle or a few other minor things. 2. This is still in the extremely small sample size. I hope something clicked for him, but we are still well within Akil Baddoo territory. I do think he has more talent than Baddo but I think its more likely his strikeouts begin to increase again and overall production will decrease. There is nothing wrong with be happy for his success.
  13. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    The Connor Priellip news is even better than expected. First its just generalized soreness, secondly he is more advanced than they had expected at this point. Meaning he is progressing faster and/or possibly has a higher ceiling than they had anticipated. Looks good to me. I think we will see a lot more kid gloves from this organization dealing with injuries and rehabbing from them in the future.
  14. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    They have now done it twice, they did it with Jorge last year. Sometimes you can say it was just luck. They have now done this in back to back years. We are getting out of the territory of luck and going in to they are doing something systematically different that is helping these types of pitchers. Hard throwers with control issues.
  15. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I think it is very clear that Baltimore has some very good bullpen and pitcher coaches, along with analytics, that are harnessing elite pitchers with control issues. This is a trade that has worked out for the Twins, but I am becoming very impressed with what the Orioles are doing.
  16. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Over 1/2 of his hits are homeruns. What we are looking at is he becomes much more valuable if he can sprinkle in more singles and doubles with those home runs.
  17. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Gallo with another homer today. Even with being out for an extended period is now 10th in total home runs. He is currently 8th in OPS for players with over 20 plate appearances.
  18. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Its pretty clear at this point you are just trolling. Hits are hits, and yes if they are going to shift to right field to avoid hits, I am thrilled with all the cheap hits, including doubles he gets to left field, to offset the hits he is losing hitting into the shift. If he gets enough of them the shift will loosen up.
  19. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    He just has to hit over .800 to be worth the $11 million. Now that he has gone nearly a month and has an 1120 OPS and a 208 OPS plus is pretty good. FYI Arreaz at his incredible start is only at a a 202 OPS+.
  20. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Which hitter on our roster has been more productive than Gallo in this early season so far? I think this answers your question. Now he could go on a hitless streak and prove your point.
  21. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Ummm . . . seems slightly backhanded there. I think a few people thought that he had a change to get to 1.000 OPS and if he did that he would be well worth the $11 million we are paying him. Yes he had had poor production the last 2 years so it was a bit of a gamble, but it is looking like he is performing pretty well here in the early going. We need a few more hits but overall a good OBP and good OPS.
  22. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I really want to watch Cossetti some more this spring. See if his bat continues to perform and potentially at higher levels. Right now he is leveling A ball pitchers so far. If he provides some promise we may not need to look at catcher as something we need to address in the 1st round. To me there are 2 elite bats and 2 elite pitchers. Can we get 1 of the 4.
  23. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    He has hit .250 once in his lifetime, the thing is can the Twins get his batting average closer to .250 than .190? The higher it goes the more valuable he becomes. He has had an over .800 OPS 4 times. Last year the threshold for a top 30 hitter was right around .800 OPS. The goal is that Gallo would be higher than that.
  24. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    There is 2 things you aren't accounting for, 1 is a more compact swing, 2 is less shift. He should have an additional hit to his total as well for what was counted as an error in the Kansas City game. I don't anticipate to hit at this level. However, if he maintains a .250 batting average he will be a top 30 hitter in the MLB and that is valuable.
  25. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I disagree, they started having prospects and ammunition to do the deals they needed to get the type of pitchers we needed. We traded away our 1st round draft pick high school pitcher for Sonny Gray. That was over a year ago. That was 18 months ago. The got Ryan at the end of 2021. They got Maeda in 2020 Health wise the cumulative affect is starting to show up now, due to health and other reasons. It just feels like more has been done. No the difference is they have been gradually getting to this point, we had a health issue with Maeda. We have better catching now to help the pitchers. We also have a better bullpen and better starting pitching which help out each other. You can't rebuild a pitching staff overnight, and the Twins haven't even though it feels that way. As to the pipeline, we have a couple options at higher levels, and we have traded away 4 of the decent pipeline arms for help on the major league team. Even still to have the arms in the major leagues, Paddack available for future years, Varland, Winder, SWR, Balazovic and any other arm that might surprise us in the future. That is light years better than the past. I will stop here as we each have our own opinions.
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