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Hawkeye Bean Counter

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Everything posted by Hawkeye Bean Counter

  1. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I will say with any player the level of Jax, Duran, Ryan, is doing the math you could get a comp pick you could get for them if they play through while the Twins retain control. That part of the equation has increased the value for smaller to mid market teams retaining players and/or increasing the trade value equation.
  2. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    You can't say Irish won't stick at catcher. The Twins have actually taken some decent bat 1st players and tried to make them into catchers. It appears they are doing more work with Gasper, they are doing it with Ferrer. Ryan Jeffers is the prime example. Irish is more likely to be gone by the Twins pick and we will see which direction they go. Go look back at Ryan Jeffers and tell me what is that much different. "Jeffers was not listed in MLB.com’s top-200 draft-eligible prospects list, and was No. 295 on the list compiled by Baseball America. The guys at BA remarked about his consistent numbers, but aren’t sure about his ability to stick behind the plate due to an average arm back there. He’s not much of a runner and there’s a question of how his bat will transfer over to using wood full-time."
  3. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    You go with the greatest overpay. You can always trade for a Catcher. Our plans could change a bit and beyond based on the draft this weekend. More and more my hope is for some reason Ike Irish falls and pick him at 16 and he is able to stick as a Catcher. He could/should be a fast riser and a situation where you may only need a place holder at C for a year or 2. We honestly do have some depth options at AA and AAA for C. Just no one with a bigger name or profile that you would expect to run with the position. I am ok with smaller trades but I am leaning more and more that I would be ok if the Twins traded a Ryan, Jax or Duran.
  4. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    In reading the headline I expected the bats to be quiet. Holy crap they were not. Our top 20 prospects for the most part have been hitting the crap out of the ball the last month or so. They started out a little slow but seem to be in the full swing of things. Culpepper and Gonzalez this year are just wow. Debarge - bat has been a little light, OBP really good, and then has been an absolute demon on the basepaths Winokur - the projection on him is pretty crazy. Winokur is much better athlete than I anticipated. The bat is violent. He really seems to be a streaky hitter. After doing pretty well at spring training, he really started off slow at Cedar Rapids. He has gotten a little better each month, and is starting off July on a bit of a hot streak. Yesterday was 1st homer of the month but OPS is over .900 in Those are long levers and and a big strike zone to manage at 6'5". He has been the primary SS for the kernels in July. I am also wondering if having a single position to focus on is helping. Will keep an eye on this. Lots to be happy about this year so far. I am very happy about Raya turning the corner. Him and Bohorquez really started off the season rough. Both have seemed to pull out of it.
  5. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    He's been hitting the ball all year, not just a heater. .320/.430/.920 slash line for the year in 2 leagues. To start the year I would have told you he didn't have much of a shot at catching, playing primarily 1st base. I really don't know much about his defensive metrics, but since he came up to AA he has been playing catcher over 50% of the time - while crushing the ball. His rotation appears to be catch 2 games, a game at 1st, catch a game, DH a game and then repeat. His career averages throwing out a stealer at 10%, in extremely small sample size is at 26% in AA. It does appear he may be making some improvements this year in that regards sitting at 16%. The catching prospects have been solid this year. Although we have had a few fizzle out. In AAA you have Winkle/Cardenas/Camargo. Camargo has really struggled with the bat. Winkle and Cardenas have had very solid years. Winkle and Cardenas both have OPS in the .800's AA - You have Baez, Cossetti and Olivar. Cossetti maybe more of a 1st baseman. Baez has been a stud with the bat both Cossetti and Olivar have been solid. High A - Diaw appears to be a legitimate prospect but I believe is shelved for the year with an injury. Low A - no major prospects in my opinion. The catching position looks a lot more solid than I expected when doing a deeper dive.
  6. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    1, Lets look at Joe. Very, very good pitcher for the Twins. The trend has been for him to do very well through about June/July, get injured or wear out and significantly regress the remainder of the year. His career OPS+ in the first half of the season is 91, the 2nd half is 120. This is a multiple year trend, so we have to expect regression even this year. 2. They only trade him if absolutely blown away and that they know they are winning the trade. Ultimately they have to replace a pitcher, have enough pitchers to replace him with and upgrade the prospects or roster or both significantly. 3. Say what you will about Falvey, I do think trade wise he does very well in valuations and trade returns for the most part. Joe is not a primary trade chip. I would not like to see him traded, don't expect to see him traded, but if he is I anticipate the trade return will be extremely good. I still anticipate a bit of a win streak taking us out of the sell side of the equation.
  7. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    We seem to have some parts getting healthy I'm not sure now would be the time to be sellers but if so I think for the most part its just marginal pieces. I don't see us getting rid of Buxton, Ober, Ryan, Correa, Jax or Duran. So what does that leave us with. 1. Harrison Bader - With a very solid bat this year and excellent defense, I would think he would be the highest value. He has a mutual option year at $10 million for next year. 2. Castro - Could get some decent return. 3. Stewart - consistently injured, consistently elite pitching when available 4. Ty France, the definition of mediocre this year, but a professional bat for 1 million dollar and above average defense might find someone wanting as a back up like last year in Cincy. Would we be willing to run with Julien or Clemens? I suppose someone could try to pick off a Varland or Sands but the cost is too high. I also don't think anyone really wants Vazquez and we don't have anyone to put as a backup in my opinion.
  8. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Priellip has performed really well. 3.6 ERA in AA in 1st full year, with excellent strikeout ability. There is a reason he is popping up in top 100 lists. You also who had Soto who was in top 100 lists to start the year, and Dasan Hill who is now starting to pop up on lists as well. Dylan Questad had started off really strong and is tailing off a bit, with a 5 ERA but he is still 2 years younger than the competition at A ball. Pitching wise we have more pitching prospects than ever. We have some solid arms close to MLB level in Morris, Culpepper, and Lewis. You also have John Klein and Pierson Ohl, who really seems to be solidifying themselves as a very solid prospects who could find their way on the MLB roster. Chaney, Bowen, Adams, Laweryson, Macleod all seem to be solid pitchers, maybe not MLB level but solid. I will say the pitching performances have been a bit more hit and miss than I was hoping for coming into the season, but there is still plenty of talent. I would hope for a couple more solid prospects.
  9. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    If available, I think Marek Houston seems to fit our MO. I would be fine with Taylor as the competitive balance pick. Then pool resources for a really solid pitcher in round 2.
  10. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    You keep moving Garbriel Gonzalez up the ladder. He is absolutely spraying the ball in AA right now. .358 average and a .430 OBP in 27 games. The only thing missing right now is the home runs. He had 5 in A ball in similar amount of games. He is the closest thing to an Arreaz we have had in a while with more pop. This is the version of player we wanted when we traded for him from Seattle.
  11. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Twins have had a pretty good formula in place the last couple of years. Taking the best bats in the early rounds with 1 high level pitching prospect taken in their 1st 3-4 picks. I am not saying they won't take him, but I would say the odds are slim. Chase Petty is their highest pick of a pitcher at pick 26, followed by Priellip pick 48 in 2022, Soto picked 34th in 2023 and Hill picked 69 last year. Twins have pick 16, 36, 54 and 88 in the top 100 picks. Most likely their competitive balance pick or round 2 pick is where they will take a stab at a high end pitching prospect.
  12. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Speaking of FCL - Melvin Rodriguez is having another very strong year. My guess is he will likely win the short season pitcher of the year for the 2nd year in a row. Just to show how big of a jump it is to the minors though, I had high expectations for Bohorquez from last year and he has struggled mightily in A ball. Rodriguez probably has the most upside out of any pitcher in the DSL or FCL in the last 5 years. Huscar Ynoa and Moran are the most notable name of winners in the last 10 years, so we really haven't had much in pitching prospects from the international side in quite a while.
  13. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    1st off, batting average doesn't show the full story. Biggest thing is they are getting walked a lot, and when they do hit they are doing damage. 10 players have an OPS over .750. 2ndly - This is the best pitching staff top to bottom the FCL has had since I have been following them. To sum it up as a team they have the 4th best offensive OPS in the league and the 4th best ERA in the league. When you have good pitching and hitting you will win a lot of games.
  14. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Brandon Winokur is putting together a pretty solid June. He seems like a streaky hitter. With his speed and power he just needs to continue working on his hit tool.
  15. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Culpepper is ahead of the curve. The initial analysis was a bat first with limited power, and questions on his defensive position. What this article has really undersold was the defensive expectations. The report on him was a player that likely couldn't stick at short and would have to be a 3rd or 2nd baseman. Meaning whatever bat skills he had would be going against better offensive players than shortstops. There is 1 line - Keith Law stating he can now be an above average shortstop. That completely changes Culpeppers profile and how good the bat needs to be. If he is getting positive WAR on the defensive side of the ball at short stop, his improved power and bat to ball skills will really start to stand out. Its why Law moved him into his top 50, even with the improved bat his profile is likely still a top 150 prospect if he is a 3rd baseman, but solidifying himself as a SS has really increased his value. . I agree we will know more when he moves to AA, but this is looking promising.
  16. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    1 year later, in a draft that supposedly looked weak the Twins hit this draft out of the park. 1. Culpepper looks like a legit shortstop, and the bat is outperforming expectations. Looks like a legit prospect. 2. Debarge - firecracker, decent bat, great speed, good defense 3. Amick - the bat appears to be real, and the defense is better than anticipated 4. D. Hill - Looks like a legit SP prospect. 1.8 ERA in A ball as a 19 year old and 14+ K/9. Absolutely ridiculous. 5. Diaw - may be the Catcher prospect we have been clamoring for.
  17. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    It may be odd, but would rather take this than Tommy Johns. If our approach is putting more strain on the back but less on the arm and elbow, I am ok with that tradeoff.
  18. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I really think they caught Pablo's injury fairly quickly. I am hoping it is on the shorter time table for Pablo. Honestly though, this is a year where we seem like we can handle an injury to one of our better pitchers. Now, we just can't compound the injury and have more.
  19. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Seriously what are we doing here. Lets trade some of our better players this year because they are doing well. I am all for accumulating value and assets, but this is just moronic. If you want to adjust the plan after the season, or we suddenly start to fall apart and you can get great value I would be ok with it. However we seem to have more than enough trade bait if we need something this year. You have Keashall, Debarge, K. Culpepper, Eeles and Schobel, and I would say Lee that you have ample infield options options for the foreseeable future. You could easily trade 1 or multiple.
  20. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Or he could just play the Athletics more often, a .870 OPS for the month of June in an extremely small sample size hehe. Personally I think he is coming along and will be a solid hitter especially if he can lay off the high pitch more. My guess is the hit tool continues to improve, he is an extremely hard worker and intelligent and 24 years old. I would be surprised if he ends with a batting average of .260 to .280 in most years with developing power.
  21. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Actually, the Pablo thing sounds more preventive than anything. He was pitching but felt discomfort. I will say this staff does seem willing to take the long approach. We have the pitching depth. Rest him for 2-4 starts and get him healthy and rested. Bats are willing to punish weak bullpens. I am still concerned about the bats against better pitching.
  22. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    This front office has been fairly strategic except when forced to do something. I feel like they forced the trades in 2022 trade deadline, although in hindsight although we didn't get a lot out of it, it doesn't appear we gave up a major player either. If someone wants to overpay, I am sure they will listen. If they think there is an option at a qualifying offer and potential draft compensation I am sure they will take that into consideration as well. Paddack seems to have found trying to get more soft contact and not going for the strikeout as much. He does not have the multiple years of success like other pitchers that got 60 million year contracts, and there is likely more concern with Paddacks elbow so he might actually be discounted a bit. He might actually be one the Twins would be comfortable if he accepted a QO. Like I said you would need a lot of things to go right.
  23. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Ok, so this discusses trading a pitcher who has performed well in a small sample size but the underlying numbers are not as good as the surface ones, and then thinks we can get something valuable for Paddack. Just seems very odd. You have Paddack for $7.5 million. Unless someone is going to blow you out of the water with a bat or a top 100 prospect why on earth do you trade him. You won't get the value of his current performance, like 1/2 to 2/3rds because of the peripherals. So you ride him. If he does really well you have options at the end of the season, and possible draft compensation. Its a long ways off, and no different than Kepler. Its a situation that likely won't come to fruition, but if everything fell right, you get a full year of good Paddack and a draft pick. That sounds like the best outcome.
  24. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    I would have thought they would have caught myocarditis - inflamation of the heart from a virus. If can overcome it, goes away in a month or two, or possibly may need rehab. That honestly sounds like what you had if I were to guess.
  25. Hawkeye Bean Counter
    Pitching is crazy expensive anymore. The recent recollection where it backfired was Martin Perez with Texas. he was looking for the big payday but took the Qualifying offer. Based off the pitching contracts from last year, if they think Paddacks health and performance can be a long term solution, I think he could easily get 50 million over 3 years.
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