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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    Obviously, high character is always sought after!! I do not think, if money is an issue, that the organization wouldn’t get flooded with interest in Lopez if he was dangled in the market, pretty hard to argue they would not ……. not an easy thing to do & maintain relationship. ………”we are willing to discuss any potential offers, blah blah, blah” is a possibility. Ryan was hurt at the end of the year for 3 straight seasons prior to ‘25. Other organizations pay attention and know all the details on injury risks with any potential acquisition. In ‘25, his last 10 starts after the deadline, he threw 49.2 innings ……..15 walks & 50 hits for a 1.32 WHIP. Maybe he was distracted/disinterested after the trades were made? He had 6 good outings and 4 poor outings. …….. I get he was an All-star and he’s a great $$ value in near term! Based on his history, he’s at a career high trade value. If he has his typical good first half, to me, his trade value is maximized at the deadline in ‘26. Again, I don’t want either to be traded. The thought of trading either of them “for prospects” makes me sick to my stomach. If $$ aren’t driving the move, the ability to remain competitive over next 2 years is higher with Ryan remaining with the Club v. any trade acquisition. Does new ownership % (invested $$) deem it’s necessary to be competitive? To me, that’s the question.
  2. JD-TWINS
    I was with you until Canterino came up……..he needs to throw 40-50 innings in St Paul before he gets ANY consideration in the Show. He may not achieve 50 more innings, with reasonable success, until sometime in ‘28. He is a bigger stretch than re-signing Chris Paddack for $4.5M for a middle reliever role.
  3. JD-TWINS
    So, do they keep Lopez just because he’s a high character guy? Both of them are under Team Control for 2 more years……why keep the $22M (x2) guy and trade the maybe $20M to Ryan over next 2 seasons? Pay Ryan a few million in ‘26 & then trade him …… trade Lopez over the Winter……this seems to be the frugal path. Can see how things go and jettison one or both at deadline in ‘26 ….. if things fall apart. I’d like to keep them both and try to reap the benefits, to be clear. If money is a big issue, I do not get why most here think Ryan, for some offensive help in a trade, makes more sense than Lopez? I wonder what you - most - think the budget will be for salaries in ‘26? I still cannot get past the fact that “a group” spent $400M plus for 20+% of the Team, and somehow they do not care if the product on the field is competitive, immediately. $125-$135M gets them to a Division Contender with current roster. Could trade young arm(s) for a bat but FA is more probable.
  4. JD-TWINS
    I agree with the others here. Festa should be a AAA depth guy if not 100% healthy OR better option for Team is to use him in 7th/8th innings, 4 innings per week to help solidify the PEN & minimize his innings & keep him producing on the mound. Lopez - SWR - Ober - Ryan are a solid core ……my assumption is Bradley gets the other spot to start the season. Abel’s pedigree tells me he’s the Top depth guy in St Paul. This leaves Matthews to be moved to back end of bullpen as the anchor…………I am open to trading young arms for a bat that steps in at 1B or Catcher. Trading Lopez or Ryan “……..to restock the system…..” is not at all what’s needed. The Twins currently have the #2 rated farm system. The role of the Farm System is to develop players to help the Parent Club win ball games - that’s the goal. Team isn’t trying to get a gold star for having the best collection of “prospects.” The rotation talent is in place! The C - 2B - 3B - CF & Corner OF spots are generally solid. Need to convert a couple guys into the Pen & sign 2-3 relievers. Need at least ONE FA bat (or via trade of pitching youth) that can positively contribute, not a prospect!
  5. JD-TWINS
    ??? Nobody acquires experienced bullpen arms at the Deadline nor MLB “ready” arms IF they are selling 5 bullpen arms. Thielbar had a nice ‘25. Coulombe had a nice ’25. Stewart is always hurt & hence traded. Stewart on a “Tonkin deal” at $1.1M along with both old lefties………all 3 for $9M? They have a couple young arms that may shift to late inning PEN guys ……… Matthews seems to have upside in that role…….a handful of other “possibilities”. Seems to me Team already knows a couple of lefties - either one of them & maybe one of the right handers shown in the article seems to fill out a competent PEN? Nobody has a crystal ball on who “will work”. That includes nearly every FO in the game. I do think they can lean on LaTroy Hawkins for experience and primarily mental help and day to day regimen thoughts.
  6. JD-TWINS
    Wouldn’t it be wonderful to find out he can play 1B or is at least working on a transition? 🤞🤞🤞…….to me, Jenkins - Rodriguez - Outman - Roden - Martin - Wallner - Larnach have the Corner OF spots covered!
  7. JD-TWINS
    Topa & Gonzalez were in the Polanco trade as well. Jorge played 104 games in ‘22 & 80 games in ‘23 for the Twins. He’d been hurt, playing through injuries, for his last 4 years with the Twins. In ‘24 he played in 118 games in Seattle and he hit .213. Nobody wanted him & Seattle re-signed him for $8M …….. he had knee surgery….. he felt better and had a solid ‘25. He’s again a free agent. DeSclafani washed out with no value - Topa was hurt essentially all of ‘24 …… he contributed in ‘25. Gonzalez may have been the best hitter in the Twin’s MiLB system this past year……he hit at 3 levels in ‘25 and ended up in St Paul. Gonzalez has a chance to be a contributor by June, if not sooner, in ‘26!
  8. JD-TWINS
    ????? What’s the logic? Anaheim sucks, they grabbed a guy that had marginal success in MLB last year. He might be optioned and claimed 3 more times between now & end of Soring Training? I sure don’t think the actions of the Angels signals any “big mistakes” for the Twins
  9. JD-TWINS
    I have no idea whether the Team will move more of their somewhat established players or not? No crystal ball. I too think that Roden is a 1 in 5 chance of sticking, essentially a throw-in….. Remember that Louie was pitching for Concordia and throwing one pitch in 2019 when he was drafted in 15th round…….he’s now 27 & up until 4-5 months ago, he looked lost in about every other outing for the Twins over previous 3 seasons. Rojas will be 23 in another month. Still a very viable trade, time will tell.
  10. JD-TWINS
    Prielipp - Raya - Matthews - Festa could all be considered for reassignment to the PEN in Spring Training. One or even two of Festa/Matthews/Abel/Bradley need to be a part of the 2026 PEN………I seriously doubt it will be Bradley or Abel. Adams/Sands/Topa/Funderburk are the only really obvious PEN candidates at this point. Cannot imagine Ohl making the Team as of April 1st. 33 spots on 40 man are taken as of this evening………Kreidler - Fitzgerald - Gasper - Ohl - Julien - Clemens - Kiersey - McCusker are 8 more candidates that could be short timers on the Team’s 40 man. Roden & Outman, IMO, are both now ahead of Kiersey. ……. Gonzalez & Jenkins are both probables for 40 man sooner than later.
  11. JD-TWINS
    Lawyerson is 5-6 years older than Rojas ….. probably one of the reasons for the differences in behavior. Rojas, young, left handed, 4 pitches…….needs another 1-2 years of development. Most guys that walk 6 people in 3 innings aren’t having a very pleasant day!!
  12. JD-TWINS
    The organization obviously has a number of guys they value more than Lawyerson that need to be protected on the 40-man. More to come on 40-man additions.
  13. JD-TWINS
    Outman placed 3rd in ROY voting in ‘23 for the National League…….he played in 151 games at MLB level and had a 3.4WAR. That’s why he was worth a flier - trading Brock Stewart (mostly injured) who was a no-show for the Dodgers after he arrived there. To me, the trade with Toronto was to get Rojas and Roden was a sweetener in the deal. Roden hit around .320 at AAA previously ……. DeShawn Kiersey hit .300 at AAA previously as well. Miranda tied an MLB record for consecutive hits in mid-‘24 and the next season he couldn’t hit at all. Success can be fleeting!! ….. ask Royce Lewis
  14. JD-TWINS
    Good one - you got me! Was going to point out that Arraez is a FA & team can just sign him ……. but you knew that.😉
  15. JD-TWINS
    I like Arraez a lot for 1B! ……many here pick at his “inability to hit LH pitching”, he hit .265 against them in 2025. He hit .311 against RH pitching in 2025. I think the Twins need is to eliminate holes in the line-up…….spots where guys are not coming through with RISP. A guy that struck out 21 times this past season and collects 180-200 hits per year (lacking foot speed), should hit 5th everyday!! He protects whoever is in the 4 slot …… he hits everyone and putting him in a slot that he can create RBI from makes more sense than batting him first. He’s “Bo Bichette light”. Bichette had 94 RBI with 18 HRs…….batting 4th. I believe that Arraez is a lock for 80 RBI batting 5th in Twin’s line-up…….(38 doubles & 8 HR’s) and doing nothing outside of what he’s done for the past 5 years. To me, the Google evaluation of his defense is somewhat meaningless - he’s just OK, not good. 3 year signing and if there’s a 1B developed internally in that span, he is more than reasonable at DH.
  16. JD-TWINS
    Exactly, enough discussion of how the Team might pair someone with Kody at 1B. He has an outside chance of making the Club as a Utility guy, playing some corner OF, 2B, & 1B………he shouldn’t have more than a 25% chance to make the Team, IMO. Andujar - hits left handed pitching (25% of MLB arms), big time. Played 13 innings at 1B. So, if looking for a guy that can help the Team the “least potential amount” as a FA signing, he’s the guy! Agree that the options listed have been underwhelming. I have to think that some internal option, via position change to 1B, or taking a flier on an existing guy like Fedko, are better options than the dregs of Free Agency. We’ve heard Larnach & Wallner here ad nauseam…….extremely unlikely or would have been done by now. Gonzalez or Jeffers shifted there are other internal options with reasonable offensive upside…Fingers crossed!
  17. JD-TWINS
    Sounds like you’re just angry, period. No problem with that. “Shelton won’t change anything…..” None of the other potential hires have any more clout to “change things”. Sounds like there was no “good or acceptable hire”. I agree, no reason to HATE anyone. Can’t be any more disappointed in Ownership!! Pretty easy to fix if they take budget back to $130-$135M ………. then it falls on FO.
  18. JD-TWINS
    Thanks so much for the breath of fresh air! Using logic and reality to describe the role of a Manager in MLB is missed here most of the time. Players play. Position coaches tweak, motivate a bit, try to build confidence, try to improve tendencies, point out bad habits here or there as appropriate. Managers set a time/culture/feel. Baldelli, as you pointed out, has been the “face” of the organization’s approach. I get that the FO may, in reality or perception, be calling the shots in general. I do think the FO gets too much static as well with the complete lack of support from Ownership over past 2 years. Can’t sign 2 guys for $57M per year and then cut back $25M per year in spending. The “hope” for this year is Team spends at 2021 levels of $135M & 90% here don’t think it will get anywhere near that total. The ownership is pulling down the effectiveness anyone might have in FO, IMO.
  19. JD-TWINS
    “It’s not that we have bad owners,” ??? We don’t???? The ownership allowed an extension of Lopez at $21-$22M …… they allowed a 2nd signing of Correa at $35M. Then, the past 2 years they have cut payroll. A bit of a ripple effect relative to how to spend on the other 23 guys on the roster. There’s no cohesive plan from ownership on spending so the FO’s job is nearly impossible. The salary budget in 2021 was $135M. Fans here at TD are hoping for $125-$130M in 2026. 5 years later, a lesser total spend, who does that???? I just don’t understand the unbelievable amount of blame that goes to Falvey while the Pohlad’s essentially get a pass. Their actions have stunted what the FO & Club were able to bring to the table in 2023. They pulled the rug out from under the FO and 2 years later the FO gets 90% of the blame. I don’t think the FO is perfect - don’t love Falvey. His successes & failures with personnel are mixed…….just like every other organization. To me, the ownership backing up on $$ committed to player’s salaries has driven organization to its recent depths. Can’t sign up for $57M going to two guys from a $155M total (‘23) and then keep those 2 guys and reduce spend by $25M!
  20. JD-TWINS
    Nobody thought VOGT was some fabulous answer when hired in Cleveland. Nobody replacing Tito was going to be viewed as a step up. Rameriz & a great Bullpen made their season in ‘26. Remember, they were a game behind the Twins (15 out) in mid-July. Hiring a bench coach (from Cubs or Yankees) is not some great step in a “win for sure” direction for the Twins. It’s not an exciting hire but “disappointing” seems to be just more defeatist talk from TD. Players make the difference. If key guys are traded (pitching) and no helpful FA’s are signed, then I too will punt on ‘26……..Shelton, nor anyone else would win with the Pirates roster over the past 5 years!!
  21. JD-TWINS
    My assumption is MOST Teams would look at any one of these 3 guys and think $4M is not a bad deal at all!! There’s RISK with age/health on Thielbar & Coulombe but that’s why they don’t cost $8.5M. I’d sign them both and use one of them nearly everyday a win is feasible. Funderburk still has a spot alternating in somewhat lower leverage situations. Matthews near the back end (velocity might play up in 2-6 out scenarios) Sands - Topa. We’d be up to 6 competent guys and searching for 3-4 RH to try out, hopefully, one more guy from FA and a couple younger internal guys. Adams is OK for an inning - no more, IMO.
  22. JD-TWINS
    Shelton isn’t exciting as a hire - agreed. Has anyone watched Servais manage? It’s not exactly scintillating stuff! Rowson has had success as a hitting coach (no managing) with Teams that are full of Power Guys……he’s not making Garver, Rosario, Sano, Kepler, Cruz, Stanton, Soto, or Judge “into power hitters” …….they have had good/great years due to their abilities. Flaherty was my hopeful choice but that was because of his connection to Counsel. It was a wild guess!! The negativity here at TD is always profound……predict disaster and be pleasantly surprised with any positive results. I’m as “old school” as anyone can be at 63. I still use hand written notes in my work and whiteboards. I’m not a big computer guy, but I sure am smart enough to know their value! I realize tracking results on one’s performance trends and those of your opponents have real value. It’s just a more in depth, easy to access, “scouting report.” Bitching about using data to manage Professional Sports is so backwards it’s unbelievable! The complaining about Falvey/Baldelli/TWINS use of “spreadsheets and data and analytics” is nuts, it’s being done in 31 of the other 31 dugouts/clubhouses in MLB. Most here want to use ELECTRONIC strike zones but they don’t think Managers should manage their teams by using data & analytics. What the hell is the problem with utilizing information?????
  23. JD-TWINS
    Based on your other post, you won’t know nor care since you aren’t watching anymore!
  24. JD-TWINS
    Agreed, it’s not “everyone’s the same”! I did see a great post here a couple years ago - don’t know how to access? Basically, it showed about Top 15 Twin’s LH hitters of all-time. The data was pretty definitive! There was maybe 2 guys (Carew & ?) at .800 OPS or better v. LH pitching but there were only maybe another 2-3 over .700 OPS v. LH pitching (I believe Kubel was pretty solid?). Oliva was like .670 or so, from memory (for sure, lower than I expected). Hrbek was under .700 as well, I believe? What the premise was on this v. Right on Right is that the LH hitters saw Way More RH pitching growing up and then into Pro Ball so, they just don’t fare as well against LH pitching, due to “lifelong” lack of familiarity. Bunch of supporting stats were shown - very good piece but no idea how to access or find it - it made common sense! RH hitters grew up facing way more RH pitchers so they are immersed in that scenario from the start - not as much of a difference as we see (everyone, not just the Twins) with Left on Left. Baseball people, apparently see this difference as something that can’t be fixed in 2-3-4 years (seldomly) at Pro Level ……. after 14-16 years of habit building.
  25. JD-TWINS
    Larnach ‘24 & ‘25: .250 BA & .258 BA 15 HR & 17 HR 350 AB’s & 503 AB’s AB v. LH pitching (‘24?) & ‘25 more! - 118 total OPS .771 & .727 If Larnach didn’t have his “role expanded” in ‘25 to hit v. LH pitching more ………. reduce those AB’s from 118 down to 38 v. LHP…….. his OPS goes back up toward 2024 levels and everyone wants to sign him! Wallner hit .177 with RISP in ‘25. He struck out (114 times) as often as he got a hit or walked (114 times total) How many guys has he thrown out with his big arm over the past 2 seasons, when he wasn’t at AAA “finding his stroke” or on the IL? When you routinely waste a bunch of time surveying the field before throwing, you lose your throwing advantage. I don’t hate Wallner ……. just don’t see much, if any difference between the two in the OF. Wallner hit .202, had 22 HR with 40 total RBI & struck out 34% of the time…..not exactly stellar! Larnach at DH v. RH pitching and as a PH should get him 475-500 AB’s …… with that scenario, he’s a .770 OPS guy with 20 HR potential while playing 75-80% of the time. He can be the 6th OF as regular DH and won’t block anyone’s development! To me, worth $4.5M.
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