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JD-TWINS

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  1. JD-TWINS
    Sounds like you’re just angry, period. No problem with that. “Shelton won’t change anything…..” None of the other potential hires have any more clout to “change things”. Sounds like there was no “good or acceptable hire”. I agree, no reason to HATE anyone. Can’t be any more disappointed in Ownership!! Pretty easy to fix if they take budget back to $130-$135M ………. then it falls on FO.
  2. JD-TWINS
    Thanks so much for the breath of fresh air! Using logic and reality to describe the role of a Manager in MLB is missed here most of the time. Players play. Position coaches tweak, motivate a bit, try to build confidence, try to improve tendencies, point out bad habits here or there as appropriate. Managers set a time/culture/feel. Baldelli, as you pointed out, has been the “face” of the organization’s approach. I get that the FO may, in reality or perception, be calling the shots in general. I do think the FO gets too much static as well with the complete lack of support from Ownership over past 2 years. Can’t sign 2 guys for $57M per year and then cut back $25M per year in spending. The “hope” for this year is Team spends at 2021 levels of $135M & 90% here don’t think it will get anywhere near that total. The ownership is pulling down the effectiveness anyone might have in FO, IMO.
  3. JD-TWINS
    “It’s not that we have bad owners,” ??? We don’t???? The ownership allowed an extension of Lopez at $21-$22M …… they allowed a 2nd signing of Correa at $35M. Then, the past 2 years they have cut payroll. A bit of a ripple effect relative to how to spend on the other 23 guys on the roster. There’s no cohesive plan from ownership on spending so the FO’s job is nearly impossible. The salary budget in 2021 was $135M. Fans here at TD are hoping for $125-$130M in 2026. 5 years later, a lesser total spend, who does that???? I just don’t understand the unbelievable amount of blame that goes to Falvey while the Pohlad’s essentially get a pass. Their actions have stunted what the FO & Club were able to bring to the table in 2023. They pulled the rug out from under the FO and 2 years later the FO gets 90% of the blame. I don’t think the FO is perfect - don’t love Falvey. His successes & failures with personnel are mixed…….just like every other organization. To me, the ownership backing up on $$ committed to player’s salaries has driven organization to its recent depths. Can’t sign up for $57M going to two guys from a $155M total (‘23) and then keep those 2 guys and reduce spend by $25M!
  4. JD-TWINS
    Nobody thought VOGT was some fabulous answer when hired in Cleveland. Nobody replacing Tito was going to be viewed as a step up. Rameriz & a great Bullpen made their season in ‘26. Remember, they were a game behind the Twins (15 out) in mid-July. Hiring a bench coach (from Cubs or Yankees) is not some great step in a “win for sure” direction for the Twins. It’s not an exciting hire but “disappointing” seems to be just more defeatist talk from TD. Players make the difference. If key guys are traded (pitching) and no helpful FA’s are signed, then I too will punt on ‘26……..Shelton, nor anyone else would win with the Pirates roster over the past 5 years!!
  5. JD-TWINS
    My assumption is MOST Teams would look at any one of these 3 guys and think $4M is not a bad deal at all!! There’s RISK with age/health on Thielbar & Coulombe but that’s why they don’t cost $8.5M. I’d sign them both and use one of them nearly everyday a win is feasible. Funderburk still has a spot alternating in somewhat lower leverage situations. Matthews near the back end (velocity might play up in 2-6 out scenarios) Sands - Topa. We’d be up to 6 competent guys and searching for 3-4 RH to try out, hopefully, one more guy from FA and a couple younger internal guys. Adams is OK for an inning - no more, IMO.
  6. JD-TWINS
    Shelton isn’t exciting as a hire - agreed. Has anyone watched Servais manage? It’s not exactly scintillating stuff! Rowson has had success as a hitting coach (no managing) with Teams that are full of Power Guys……he’s not making Garver, Rosario, Sano, Kepler, Cruz, Stanton, Soto, or Judge “into power hitters” …….they have had good/great years due to their abilities. Flaherty was my hopeful choice but that was because of his connection to Counsel. It was a wild guess!! The negativity here at TD is always profound……predict disaster and be pleasantly surprised with any positive results. I’m as “old school” as anyone can be at 63. I still use hand written notes in my work and whiteboards. I’m not a big computer guy, but I sure am smart enough to know their value! I realize tracking results on one’s performance trends and those of your opponents have real value. It’s just a more in depth, easy to access, “scouting report.” Bitching about using data to manage Professional Sports is so backwards it’s unbelievable! The complaining about Falvey/Baldelli/TWINS use of “spreadsheets and data and analytics” is nuts, it’s being done in 31 of the other 31 dugouts/clubhouses in MLB. Most here want to use ELECTRONIC strike zones but they don’t think Managers should manage their teams by using data & analytics. What the hell is the problem with utilizing information?????
  7. JD-TWINS
    Based on your other post, you won’t know nor care since you aren’t watching anymore!
  8. JD-TWINS
    Agreed, it’s not “everyone’s the same”! I did see a great post here a couple years ago - don’t know how to access? Basically, it showed about Top 15 Twin’s LH hitters of all-time. The data was pretty definitive! There was maybe 2 guys (Carew & ?) at .800 OPS or better v. LH pitching but there were only maybe another 2-3 over .700 OPS v. LH pitching (I believe Kubel was pretty solid?). Oliva was like .670 or so, from memory (for sure, lower than I expected). Hrbek was under .700 as well, I believe? What the premise was on this v. Right on Right is that the LH hitters saw Way More RH pitching growing up and then into Pro Ball so, they just don’t fare as well against LH pitching, due to “lifelong” lack of familiarity. Bunch of supporting stats were shown - very good piece but no idea how to access or find it - it made common sense! RH hitters grew up facing way more RH pitchers so they are immersed in that scenario from the start - not as much of a difference as we see (everyone, not just the Twins) with Left on Left. Baseball people, apparently see this difference as something that can’t be fixed in 2-3-4 years (seldomly) at Pro Level ……. after 14-16 years of habit building.
  9. JD-TWINS
    Larnach ‘24 & ‘25: .250 BA & .258 BA 15 HR & 17 HR 350 AB’s & 503 AB’s AB v. LH pitching (‘24?) & ‘25 more! - 118 total OPS .771 & .727 If Larnach didn’t have his “role expanded” in ‘25 to hit v. LH pitching more ………. reduce those AB’s from 118 down to 38 v. LHP…….. his OPS goes back up toward 2024 levels and everyone wants to sign him! Wallner hit .177 with RISP in ‘25. He struck out (114 times) as often as he got a hit or walked (114 times total) How many guys has he thrown out with his big arm over the past 2 seasons, when he wasn’t at AAA “finding his stroke” or on the IL? When you routinely waste a bunch of time surveying the field before throwing, you lose your throwing advantage. I don’t hate Wallner ……. just don’t see much, if any difference between the two in the OF. Wallner hit .202, had 22 HR with 40 total RBI & struck out 34% of the time…..not exactly stellar! Larnach at DH v. RH pitching and as a PH should get him 475-500 AB’s …… with that scenario, he’s a .770 OPS guy with 20 HR potential while playing 75-80% of the time. He can be the 6th OF as regular DH and won’t block anyone’s development! To me, worth $4.5M.
  10. JD-TWINS
    Pretty sure most/many here get the 75%/25% split in RH v. LH pitching. There’s just uninformed guess work in the thinking that if Larnach saw more in game left handed pitching, he’d be much closer to serviceable in that situation. There’s “baseball people” around Larnach - Wallner, etc. that see the struggles v. LH pitching 8 months of the year - year after year, behind the scenes. That said, letting a 29 year old guy go, that has a career OPS near .770 v. RH pitching, (75% of our foes) because $4.5M is too much to spend is nuts. At least sign him until Rodriguez shows he can be healthy for more than 45 days in a row - Roden shows he can hit consistently - Jenkins appears to be comfortable enough to move to MLB - Wallner shows he can hit .230 and actually collect some RBI. Can always trade a productive hitter mid-season if youth has shown out at AAA. To me, Larnach is insurance to being at a “competitive level” offensively until it’s deemed others around him aren’t keeping Team competitive….. then move whoever makes sense to move. Somebody mentioned yesterday Roden has hit .320 at AAA ……… Kiersey hit .300 in ‘24 at AAA and is 20 for 184 over his AB’s at the MLB level. My point with Larnach is he’s “the devil we know!”
  11. JD-TWINS
    You’re right, it’s not that hard…… HE SUCKS! He hit .177 with RISP …….. no “coaching demons” in that. He has no ability to dial back to make contact. He strikes out 34% of his AB’s. His bat to ball skills are often non- existent. His OBP of .311 is a combination of his 68 hits & 46 walks. One can’t strike out (114) the same amount of times one gets a hit or he walks. That has a little bit to do with his inability to drive in runs. 392 plate appearances and his walks plus strikeouts = 160 or 41% of the time he doesn’t put the ball in play……..that makes it difficult, when guys are on base, to produce runs. 392 plate appearances and he had 18 RBI other than driving himself in with a HR. Nearly statistically impossible to do!
  12. JD-TWINS
    I don’t dislike the “guy” but relative to critiquing his hitting……I guess I’d be considered one of the hounds you refer to above. I just don’t understand how one can have 22 HR with 40 total RBI over nearly 400 AB’s??? Getting “his stats” are what every guy is trying to do - I get that, but Wallner (getting back to his stats) walking as much as he does along with his pretty good frequency and total of HR’s, his Production as contribution to Wins is abysmal! I guess that after ‘25, I have lost any confidence in the guy. In ‘24, he started so slow that he was sent down for 10 weeks. He came back and had a pretty decent last 10 weeks. One can’t be hurt or performing poorly for big chunks of time, season after season, AND be involved in a Teams plans for the future!
  13. JD-TWINS
    I just think he has too many holes to be exploited with his current/past approach. He’s not shown much in the RBI dept. (.177 with RISP in ‘25). IMO, if he wasn’t a native Minnesotan, TD would be carving him up continuously!! .245 - 30 HR - 70 RBI would be a remarkable season for Wallner. assuming he gets to 550 PA’s this season. He needs to figure out how to stay healthy enough and productive enough to warrant consistent time over a whole season! ’23 - 2.2 WAR ……’24 - 2.2 WAR ……’25 - 0.3 WAR He played in 30 more games in ‘25 than in the other two years. BIG drop in production AND in the potential for any shine going forward!
  14. JD-TWINS
    An awfully lot of volatility with Ron from a physical health perspective………and he’s 74. Nobody’s hiring him for the Top Spot anymore. I think that Flaherty from Cubs with Twin’s organization mating him with Washington as bench coach would be a great mix, on paper anyway. I wish Ron the best!
  15. JD-TWINS
    I like the Flaherty angle. Any extension of Craig Counsel makes sense to me. He’s a Pro’s pro after 8 years as a utility guy & similar length of time as coach. Seems like a guy others would want to coach for in a building situation. (None of us know who might be best!) Won’t matter w/o Wallner & Lewis playing much better, along with some FA help in infield and Pen. Hiring the Yankees coach takes Team back into the middle of the ”Hit for Power” offensive strategy - that makes sense if coaching Soto - Stanton - Judge! Twins don’t have those guys, Anyone that was bitching about hitting approach for Twins in ‘24 should volunteer to eat crow! Popkins took over a relatively ineffective group in Toronto and they are an offensive juggernaut!! 4 guys at or above .300 & 7 guys over .265. Strikeouts are down as well. Twins, with existing group, need to promote contact and barrel contact without locking in on launch angle. Hit the ball & hit it hard whenever possible……..baseball 101. Blue Jay’s ‘2025 mantra at the plate!
  16. JD-TWINS
    Maybe the 6th time in last 5 weeks I’ve stated this, the $425M infusion that garnered 20+% of the ownership stake wasn’t a charitable donation. Cannot make that move w/o an expectation that the Team will be made marketable by acquiring some talent. Can’t invest those $$ and know the fan base hates the current product, as is, without some positive changes on the near-term horizon. I don’t expect Big Name signings but 4-5 FA’s can blend with the current core and make a run at the Division Title. C - 1B - PEN (2-3). Rotation is in decent shape, talent wise. There are 2-3 guys back in the PEN ……. another 2-3 to consider ……… 2-3 young arms that can be blended into Relief role …… 2-3 FA’s and the PEN is more than adequate. To me, if $$ are the chief issue, you don’t trade the $5.8M guy and keep the $22M guy when both have ”like effectiveness”. Lopez on the trade block would have Team’s salivating at a known cost for a couple more years. I don’t trade either - spend up to $130M and win the Division.
  17. JD-TWINS
    Would you like to compare 2024 stats between Bo & Luis? In 2025 for Twins: Lewis had 52 RBI and hit .237 with 89 hits & 376 AB’s Clemens had 52 RBI and hit .216 with 74 hits & 342 AB’s Arraez had 181 hits ……… v. their 163 hits. RBI are created by a player batting in runs by getting HITS and putting the ball in play if making an out. Arraez struck out 21 times in ‘25 & lead the N.L. in hits.
  18. JD-TWINS
    Because he’s lead-off or batted 2nd for most of his career - if Bichette didn’t hit in the 4 spot for Toronto this year he wouldn’t have had 94 RBI. My arguement isn’t that Arraez “is Bo Bichette”, my arguement is that a “contact guy” can thrive when coming to the plate with base runners……. i.e. Bichette in ‘25! Bichette: .294/.337/.469 for his 7 year career Arraez: .317/.363/.413 for his 7 year career If Arraez hits 5th every day for the Twins for 145-150 games, his ability to reach 80 RBI is almost guaranteed…….if he hits 5th in Toronto he might have a 100 RBI………Matt Wallner is proof that HR’s don’t directly lead to RBI totals being high. My other point is “productivity per $$ spent” …….. Arraez at $11-$12M is a great value for a guy that’s played 144 - 147 - 150 - 154 games over past 4 seasons……….again, Bichette is expecting $25M for 3-4 more years & he’s only a year younger.
  19. JD-TWINS
    I looked at Bo Bichette’s stats & in 2025 he has 628 PA’s over 139 games, with 63 XBH (18 HR’s) and hit .311 with a .357 OBP (.337 OBP career) along with 94 RBI………..in ‘24 he had 336 PA’s over 81 games, with 21 XBH (4 HR’s) and hit .225 with a OBP of .277. He plays a premium defensive spot at SS for the Jays - he’s assumed to be signed for $25M/yr for 7 years and he’s an oft injured 27 year old. Goldschmidt has retired from MLB. Luis Arraez in 2025 has 675 PA’s over 154 games, with 42 XBH (8 HR) and hit .292 with a .327 OBP (.363 OBP career) along with 61 RBI…………in ‘24 he had 672 PA’s over 150 games, with 39 XBH (4 HR’s) and hit .314 with a OBP of .346. He has averaged 149 games per year over last 4 seasons. If he hits 5th every day for MN he collects 180-195 hits and 80 plus RBI with 7 HR’s. First base is handled for 3 years at $11M/yr. His defense is adequate, not great and he’s 28………btw, he hit .265 v. LH pitching in ‘25 & .311 v. RH pitching …….. no big platoon need! For 48% of Bo Bichette’s salary, offensively he’s 90% of the output offensively. That’s if Bichette has a good year and stays healthy. Bichette wants 7 years and is 27 ……… Arraez would sign for 3-4 years and is 28. I don’t understand the hate for Luis here at TD? He’s not perfect - sure. He’s a hell of a lot of a better risk/signing than Rhys Hoskins!!!
  20. JD-TWINS
    As others have pointed out and my eye test would agree with, the fact that he looked pretty good at 3B from mid-summer forward AND he stole 11 of 12 times over last (roughly) 35 games. To me, the legs, and confidence to use them, is back. He needs to sort himself, with coaching input, at the plate.
  21. JD-TWINS
    I have more hope with Martin than Lewis. 😉 Seriously, the first round picks that Team is leaning on for ‘26 (expectations), obviously, Buxton……. but it may be Martin - Lewis - Lee in descending order …….. that’s a lot different than everyone thought at beginning of ‘24. Lee too, is nearly unplayable for big stretches of time………as you state, at least Lewis has seemed to recapture a bunch of his athleticism. Not sure how much there ever was for Lee?
  22. JD-TWINS
    Sign a LH guy at 1B is the sentiment from you & I agree! ……..Clemens is not the answer with regular playing time. Clemens may be the 13th guy, until youth is ready, because he can play 4 positions. Maybe? Per you, won’t be able to compete for Naylor. O’Hearn at around $8-$10M will be tough for organization to pull the trigger on, but it’s needed. Probably other clubs in the mix for him as well. Wallner - Larnach - Clemens - etc. as a 1B solution are all bad ideas if trying to actually be competitive. Don’t see the OF guys magically becoming competent at 1B ……. Wallner has plenty of issues just focusing on struggles at the plate. 2 position signings needed (C & 1B) with 2 reliever signings needed. Can get these done for $35M - right? Takes them to $130M total (less than 2022 spend) with current roster guys. LH free agent at 1B with Jeffers being the platoon RH guy at 1B (40 games). Hopefully, LH guy at C from free agency and Jeffers catches 30 games & is DH 70 games, with Parades (?) on the Roster for 50 games.
  23. JD-TWINS
    So, Popkins got fired as hitting coach after ‘24. Everyone here bitching about approach and poor results from players for big chunks of time due to “poor coaching.” Immediately, Toronto hired Popkins. Blue Jays, with essentially same core that didn’t perform to expectations in ‘24, took off! 4 guys at .300 or better - 7 guys at .265 or better. How does this happen?…….Popkins is clueless, it couldn't have anything to do with his input - right? Players play & execute, on their own, in the box. Coaches tweak - suggest - encourage - build good habits - instill confidence………. players play!! Blaming coaches for poor play from players is nuts, IMO. Baldelli hit .290 over first 3 full seasons in MLB - he knows something about approach both mentally and physically. Earl Weaver had a .583 winning % in Baltimore. Don’t see Earl in or around the cage coaching up Frank or Brooks or Boog. He managed good pitchers and good position players and THAT is what generates W’s!
  24. JD-TWINS
    League average or slightly better (L/R) hitter that can play all 3 OF spots if necessary and provides depth as needed at 2B & 3B certainly has value. I’d at least make him an offer for 1 year at $5M or 2 years at $8.5M……..don’t know how that snakes out with his “perceived value” via his metrics? Gut feel, not a bad signing, not exciting. I’d much rather have Castro at the plate & live with his OF defense (utilize his IF flexibility) than Roden!!! I have zero faith in Roden at the plate and very, very little faith in Outman. Keaschall “ready to take a step forward” ……can you take a bigger step than starting essentially every day one is healthy enough to play?
  25. JD-TWINS
    I like trying to sign Vazquez (or Vazquez like) or another FA to catch 80 games. Paredes catches 60 games. Jeffers stays competent and adds roster flexibility while catching 22 games (3-4 per month). He can DH after he catches to keep his bat in the line-up as MGR chooses. He’s the principal at 1B, playing 100 games there. I think with lighter defensive load and a bit of tweaking his HR power returns. Gotta be realistic on the HR comments, he “averaged” 17 per year previous two seasons and fell back to 8 or 9. He was out with injury a bit which, I assume, reduced his AB’s in ‘25? Didn’t fall off a cliff! I like his size/strength & general durability! His strikeout % being under 20% is a good sign as well. 10% walks - good rate! Gotta sign him & IF there’s a 3 year deal to be made, go for it from TWINS perspective.
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