JD-TWINS

6 innings with 4 K’s & 3 Walks is nothing to get jazzed about ……. obviously, the baseball people don’t think he’s near a “best option” as a righty. He’s 37 and 3 full seasons distanced from success. They knew all this when signed on - he just didn’t show enough to push him in front of options like Klein or other young guys, that have the expectation of good health.

So I understand that people want to give younger players a chance ……. Rodriguez, obviously, near the top of the list. What I don’t understand is “freaking out”, for lack of a better term, over letting things play out for guys like Outman (if he shows a reason for this course) or Larnach (legit chance to be 3rd or 4th best hitter on roster) if he’s platooned properly. If these guys don’t perform they can be moved and/or released as Team sees fit, to provide opportunity for others. It’s easy to see a 4 month window for Rodriguez if others fail. Outman finished 3rd in ROY voting in ‘23 & Larnach was once a highly touted prospect. Just because a guy has promise and is touted by media doesn’t mean he should just be handed an opportunity. Emma, shine at AAA and force your way on to the roster!!! The “better use of resources” comments make ZERO sense to me. Larnach, relative to other non-minimum guys, is nearly free at $4.5M. The TEAM needing to release or trade him “to be able to afford or justify” spending $4.5M on a reliever is ridiculous & 110% on the Cheap Ownership!! Once the TEAM decided not to spend the fans act like the money spent is their’s and not the Professional Sports Franchise. There is no plausible explanation for an organization to spend $105M in 2026, particularly when the organization spent $155M in 2023. Rodriguez struck out over 30+% of his AB’s and he hit .254 last year. Then there are the injuries, year after year. That does not scream “hugely talented” to me.

Strife - every day here at TD! Ober threw 4 innings on Tuesday and didn’t break 90MPH …..4 innings - 2walks and 2 hits and 1 run. ……….. Over 8 1/3 this spring he has a 2.08 ERA - he’s NOT facing the ‘27 Yankees in the box this spring, granted. He’s coming off an injury and trying to work on refreshed - reworked mechanics. It’s Spring Training. He (& the rest of the starters) will ramp up over first 3-4 starts of the season……just like every year. With today’s access to information/analytics, every single detail is scrutinized. Obviously, I don’t know if Ober will be able to get guys out at a reasonable rate in ‘26 but with two guys on the IL - Matthews still trying to master his craft - Ryan not exactly pitching “workhorse” innings in Spring - with ABEL/TAJ/SWR as locks in the rotation ……….. Bailey seems to be lower (or at least not worse) on the list of potential worries in the big picture.

If Larnach hits 18HR and hits .260 while DHing 90% of the time (obtainable) v. RH pitching …….. .765 OPS, he’s nearly a lock for the ‘27 roster. If Outman hits .260 and plays decent defense, he too has a great shot at the ‘27 roster. IF, these guys (1 of them) is mildly successful but not viewed to be “part of the future” they’ll have trade value above where it is now, “in a crowded LH hitting OF situation”. Why? …….. because Rodriguez has done little to nothing to suggest he’s better or will be better than either of these guys at the MLB level. If Roden takes off……. Rodriguez is on the outside looking in going forward. He’s not of the talent level of Walker ……. he’s just the best we’ve had in the system for a couple years & people get bored and want the shiny new toy. Larnach & Wallner used to have very similar buzz.

“A crime”? ……. He hit just .254 with a 30+% K rate ………. ALL should be careful what they wish for…….oh, and he’s hurt 50+% of the time over last 3-4 years. I too would love improvement on the Roster but Emma is hardly a lock. He’s been a “coming prospect” for some time and all are anxious - I get that. Seeing if Outman &/or Clemens &/or Larnach &/or Wallner can get some positive results early, in a probable lost year, prior to “moving on” just makes sense. If these guys (Outman particularly) were not reasonable at the plate this Spring then one should act more swiftly. I could care less “who” is successful, just want someone to be successful ……. am not going to be upset if Outman can muster OK defense and some XBH and hit .265 BA. If Rodriguez can’t give the organization a solid reason to displace that type of guy, whoever it may be, tough.

“..much of the unit’s success hinges on Hendricks” ……… come on man! He’s maybe got a 50/50 chance of sticking on the roster. Never been higher than that since the first phone call/email. 2-3 months of “decent” Hendricks would be a win for the Club. Can’t imagine any expectations higher than that. They are going to need (young) guys that haven’t thrown to 2-6 batters at a time to figure it out & be effective. The list of fringe veterans will be OK for short stints but more than 1/2 of the original 8 getting through September is a real stretch.

2 hits - 1 run - 4 innings ……… “cooked”?

Jenkins - Rodriguez - Gonzalez seem to be 1-3 from a ceiling standpoint (& should be ranked 1-3) but Gonzalez, to me, seems closest to contributing now.

Ober (lack of any consistent velocity) - SWR (lack of velocity with lack of deception) - Matthews (lack of command in the zone) These 3 are a Proof for your statement about fastball being a base to work from …….. with a small margin for error, they can/have been successful in shorter bursts. SWR & Ober have developed “pitch mix” to try & overcome their fastball issues. Matthews is a work progress.

.400 plus batting average against by LH hitters with a 9.1% HR rate is all I need to see to defer to giving ABEL the chance ahead of Matthews.

Not sure what obvious evidence we have that Ryan is ahead of Ober at this point? Am certainly equally concerned about Joe.

Of this group, Arcia gets cut or signed to Minor League deal - his choice. Gray is on 26 man. Kriedler is released or fills Arcia’s void with same MiLB contract offer…… seems realistic…….can’t have a non-factor guy in the box routinely with Kriedler. Per others, can Adam’s slot open up with him on the IL? ……… this a spot for Altavilla.

Curious about 4 non-roster guys making the Roster? Am not a huge follower of Spring Training details - are these guys to make the 26 man or 40 man in your opinion. Who has a shot that’s not rostered?

Am certainly hoping that the bar is higher than Bowman ………at least prior to 3-4 injuries. Cannot imagine he’s in the Top 8 mix.

You can’t think of anybody…….probably because lost velocity & shifting to a reliever something anyone gives thought to, or follows? Would usually happen in MiLB I would suspect? Baseball isn’t some abstract on a screen. I have no idea how to rationalize, with logic, how getting outs aren’t awfully similar throughout the game, regardless of inning. Velocity is a premium throughout a game not just for late innings, Pen guys. If a guy can get people out (has a history of doing so) for 4-6 innings with location, change of speed, & movement……..his velocity drops ………Ober isn’t a better option than Topa (or similar) in the 6th or 7th? I’m not of the mind that Ober’s velocity would jump 2-4 miles per hour if he pitched from the Pen and only faced 3-6 guys at a time (wishful thinking)……… may tick up but certainly not automatic. He’s a pretty different look 👀 n the hill - bringing him for an inning at a time or even for 4/5 outs for 2-3 times per week doesn’t seem far fetched to me. I’m not campaigning for Ober to be in the Pen but outright release or giving up on any value before some experimentation …….. within the group that’s now in the Pen, doesn’t seem to make much sense.

Chris Bassitt seems fine in the bullpen, as an example …….. Justin Topa or Bailey Ober in the 6th/7th - your choice? If he stumbles and they are somehow competitive but not performing, I’d give him a shot at getting 3-4 outs at a time.

You’re right, nobody has a crystal ball…….poor Springs can lead to solid seasons just like Great Springs can result in mediocrity or worse. We’ll soon see. Fingers crossed for ‘26!!!!

Not sure what media you’re following but Abel - Bradley - Zebby are all getting their own innings regardless of whether Ober is on the Staff or not - right? They are in a mix of 4-5-6 on list of starters, worst case……..probably higher. Prielipp is only half a season removed from Matt Cantinerro territory, relative to health. He’s not MLB ready for starter innings & his pitching performance through ‘25 didn’t/doesn’t warrant displacing anyone. If Ober pitches with good health - then sucks - I’m all for making moves. Trying to trade him with reduced velocity and coming off a 5.10 ERA season doesn’t seem like a “seller’s” position. He pitched through injuries most of ‘25 - but he showed up! Ryan - Lopez - Matthews - Festa were all down at varying times through the season……. Ober was shutdown late.

He’s 30 THIS year. He pitched 146 innings last year (27 starts) and was hurt for at least 50% of those innings. He had a terrible 5.10 ERA in ‘25 but his career ERA is 4.08. His ERA and BA against were solid from the Windup but poor from the Stretch ……..seems like the physical ailment and bad habit issues revolved around pitching from the stretch. I would think this would help him & others define the issues. Not giving him arbitration $$ (considering his health issues & determination to keep pitching for the team’s sake) is a bizarre thought, IMO. Lopez - Ryan - Festa - Matthews all missed segments of ‘25 while Ober pitched til he couldn’t. Ryan, a solid pitcher (nothing to do with Ober), has never had a full healthy season so anointing him, “just fine” is maybe a bit of wishful thinking?

“at the end the the day” was my trendy attempt at levity……..

Well, at the end of the day, is trendy speak that big of a deal? 😉

I don’t know enough about College players nor High School stars to have any feel on “who should be drafted” Houston was drafted and that’s when I got mildly familiar with his skill set. My “forever” comment is meant to be in reference to what can be done from today forward. My point is maybe he raises a bar at SS, defensively, until a better all-around guy can be procured via draft or free agency? Not really sure I follow your logic or thought process on affordability (seems you’re saying Team is drafting guys that they’ll be able to afford as free agents, “lesser talents”, 8 years or so in the future?) as they signed a SS specifically, that made $30-$35M/year. Obviously, I’m missing something.

I get it - you’re not happy with Houston, after 100 AB’s in MiLB. Culpepper is supposed to fit your description - Lewis fits the “bat” expectation - Lee, on paper from College, fit the “bat” expectation. All 3 #1’s at SS. With all of their results rolled together (too early for Culpepper) I have no issue with a contact guy, if he’s above average defensively, playing SS. He’s not necessarily the “forever” shortstop but Arcia is washed and Kriedler doesn’t seem to be as good with glove nor potential with bat, after a longer history…….those are the differences, IMO.

I don’t need you or anyone else to help me temper my expectations. I’m fully aware of the repeated mediocre results from Team’s #1 draft picks, particularly at SS. Noah Miller was traded because he had nearly zero hit tool. Houston is 21 ….. he isn’t near borderline defensively as a floor …... and I think that neither 54 successful AB’s in A Ball nor 46 AB’s in High A have much to do with what he’ll do in ‘26&’27.

HOUSTON: Might need to have a lost leader at SS for upside defense by middle of ‘27 - he may never hit “well enough” and his defense seems to be commonly regarded as already good enough to very good. There’s no perfect players in the TWIN’s organization and few anywhere else. .370 at A Ball (54 AB’s) .152 at High A (46 AB’s) Assuming he’s probably in between these two, near some midpoint, at High A by sometime in June ………. if he gets to AA by mid-July and sticks, I’ll be happy with his ascension.