JD-TWINS

Bell & Larnach are not Stars but they are at a different level than Lee & certainly Roden! Wallner & Lewis have already had exceptional seasons …….. they need to repeat something “approaching” those seasons. Even if they are 5% above League average it will be an uptick. Buxton - Keaschall - Jeffers - Caratini - Martin play to their capabilities……..not All-star level but at or slightly above expectations. If these meager goals are generally achieved - with rotation health……..they’ll be in the mix in the Central.

His ERA in ‘24 was 6.69 so he wasn’t getting the ball past too many guys on the corners………..his “control” in the minors was fantastic if the BAR is just not walking guys …… he overpowered MiLB hitters. His command in the zone has been lacking at the MLB level. Probably wasn’t any better in MiLB. The ERA went down 1.1 runs in ‘25 to, a not MLB sustainable, 5.56. At 26, my opinion is that he is what he is (he obviously can evolve & improve) & he’s trying to master SIX pitches which is a very lofty pursuit! Trim to 3-4 pitches and “contribute effectively” from the PEN v. just filling a void for innings in the rotation as has been the case over the past 2 years. Duran - Jax - Stewart - Varland all have better stuff and were squarely in the Twin’s PEN - no disgrace in doing what you’re good at or being allowed to succeed in a new role.

- being demonstrative usually comes with/after successful results on a personal or team level (that comes first)………..Pete Rose was an anomaly in the 60’s & 70’s, not the norm ……..they aren’t circus performers. - Keaschall seems to be about as energetic and fun loving as they come, to the eye. Buxton too, as you mentioned. I think Martin brings an energy as well. (Bader & Vazquez last year). - being passionate looks good to the fan but it doesn’t create talent nor hard hit balls nor good defense - effort & talent get results, IMO, not waving your arms around or throwing bats or whatever “entertainment pieces” show passion. - from my viewpoint, Jorge Polanco couldn’t be any more quiet and laidback verbally and physically……..other than quiet desire to win/succeed I don’t “see passion” watching him play

The stats are a pretty big slap in the face, IMO, for those who insist he’s a real talent and needs to remain a starter for sure. I don’t have a crystal ball to gauge how he may or may not improve. He’s going to be 26 in 2026 ….. he was a low round draft pick and a great story in ‘24’s meteoric rise. That said: It seems he should eliminate his Sinker - Cutter - Curveball, based on the metrics shown above on OPS and focus on 3 pitches to use at a higher effectiveness rate from the back end of the PEN. With 1 inning stints he can throw his 4 seamer 96-98, which with proper location, will be effective. The slider needs to be the pitch he throws 50% of the time. The change-up as a waste pitch in & off the plate to righties about twice a week for show and then as a more effective offering to lefties he’ll face. The focus with 3 pitches would hopefully help him refine location skills and help him relax with far fewer pitches to master…………maybe he keeps the curve as a second “show pitch” and throws it 4-5% of the time. Theorizing the change-up is 15% with the Slider at 50% and Fastball at 30+%. I think he’s an 8th-9th inning guy as he gains experience and gets comfortable in a new role. 6 pitches with only one of real positive effectiveness doesn’t get me excited for him to be a rotation guy!

“Could be” the next Brock Stewart - maybe?

His BA against with runners on base was like .368. To me, it seems pretty obvious he had a physical problem. When you pitch just fine out of the Windup and can’t get guys out from the Stretch, it’s physical. If the same guy is throwing 91.5 or 89 mph and he gets guys out from the Windup routinely. The loss in velocity isn’t good but something physical is causing the drop off. If that gets fixed, whatever “that” is, I’m not worried about Ober going out and giving the Team a real chance in 4 of every 5 starts.

Because Caratini is a switch hitter that is a better hitter than Clemens. Jackson may be in the 26 man to allow Caratini to DH as well as Jeffers. Clemens is really a reach as the 13th guy on a decent club.

Not in love with Outman either. …. Don’t really see much more in Roden than in Kiersey - both can play OF, both can run, and both hit at AAA. St. Paul isn’t the SHOW. Outman, in years 2 & 3, is the same mediocre performer as Eddie Julien……I think, with better physical talent. There were a number of people at TD that held out hope that the organization would give Eddie an opportunity. They didn’t and that makes me happy………with Outman, I’m more neutral. Either way, if he starts the season on the 26 man, he can be DFA’d with a simple stroke of the pen or by pressing SEND on the keyboard. If he’s on the roster, he has NO extended runway!

Festa will be 26 this year - Prielipp will be 25 this year - Matthews will be 26 this year. Festa & Prielipp have had injury issues and could use further inning monitoring in 2026. Much easier to control innings AND utilize benefit of the guy’s talents from the PEN, IMO. Matthews could potentially thrive in cutting back his repertoire to 2-3 pitches and shifting to a high leverage role in the PEN. Raya will be 23 and has more time. Opportunities in the Show via the PEN don’t eliminate any chance of starting in the long term.

Does anyone think Tom P. is going to push for a couple more FA signings to make “everything OK” going into the season. I think he wants to be the hero! Can’t do that just by making some phone calls and pushing Falvey out the door. My take from the article is that every word said about Festa could be applied to Prielipp. Rojas is a 2027 guy IMO & out of the picture until at least September. That said, “to be competitive” I’d stack Festa - Prielipp - Matthews all in the PEN if deemed necessary in Spring Training. It may take until early May to get one of them accustomed to a new role/regimen but ALL of them want to be in the Show and not in St. Paul, so I think they’re motivated to make it work. IMO.

To me, #4 is squarely on the OWNERSHIP. Can’t approve this deal and then sign Lopez to his extension ($56M total) just prior to cutting payroll steadily from $155M in ‘23 to $105M in ‘26. The flimsy basket is squarely on the ownership’s desire to cut payroll in a big way with ZERO prior warning nor plan. Nobody (FO) can navigate through that to build a strong roster.

Yep - to me, Vazquez was a great move and he turned out to be a real good guy and solid receiver but the .270 BA prior to the Twins almost seems like it had to be some deep fake on his stats that fooled everyone in the Twin’s FO and Twin’s fandom. Hard to believe the depths his offense fell to over the 3 seasons.

YES - can’t only give this a thumbs up …………. #1 Picks not producing at League Average to 15-20% better than league average is THE problem with the current roster. Wallner - Lee - Lewis ………. 1/3 of every day line-up. Larnach isn’t a flashy success story but he’s not a problem. The other 3 guys above have shown flashes of their Talent but they have been a real consistency problem. Martin, an obtained #1 pick, is similar to Larnach. If Lewis can’t be above average - if Wallner can’t be average - if Lee can’t approach average, team can’t succeed in ‘26. Nobody needs to be an All-star but they can’t be BAD! ………………. I live in Cincinnati and the Twins sure could use the consistency that Spencer Steer brings (lost in Mahle trade) every day at 2-3 positions.

From the Current 40 Man Roster: 11 of 19 pitchers are 22-25 yrs old. 4 of the other 8 are veteran relievers (not unusual) and they skew the average age Keaschall - Lee - Lewis are 22, 24, & 26 9 of 10 outfielders are 21-28 (many at 27/28, granted). Jenkins isn’t listed yet. Still seems that most of the Roster and the guys that will play regularly are fairly youthful. Bell - Buxton - Caratini are the only position players over 30.

They were ranked 21st and not 17th in a rankings list I saw with that “health comment.” I have no way to gauge where the Twins are relative to others. I assume, based on Top 100 list guys in the system that they are probably around 10-15 and not poor but not that exciting. Translating at the MLB level is all that matters - where the system is ranked is just some generally subjective conversation piece.

Isn’t the deadline “fire sale” overblown, relative to the effect on the 26-man Roster? Correa is about 50% washed, with up & down effectiveness at the plate - inability to play “well” at SS and being hurt routinely…….why, after taking a big swing with his signing (3.5 seasons later), would any reasonable FO not move off $25M/yr ……. assuming “some” of the funds would become available to help replace/rebuild the Roster? Coulombe - Bader - Castro - Paddack were all going to be FA’s & gone in ‘26 OR they would need to negotiate a new deal. Get some returns if at all possible IF Team has decided they aren’t competing in ‘25…….what’s the problem? Dobnack ……. good to get out from under. Stewart ……. in his best year he threw 37 innings for Team (1 inning every 4.4 games) and he threw 3 1/3 innings for Dodgers after July 31, 2025 - out for the year - hurt again! He was not a mainstay - he was very effective in short bursts - no real long-term loss with the continued lack of availability. That’s 7 of the guys that were moved……. Duran, Jax, & Varland are all missed on some level. Tait & Abel for Duran ……. we’ll see. Not terrible thing if EITHER of these guys develops into expectations. Never fun to see a high performer leave. Not long ago, traded Arraez after winning the batting title with fingers crossed. Bradley……big potential to start after JAX has previously washed as a starter ……can always consider Taj in the PEN. Griffin’s stuff was lights out most nights (fun to watch) but he was too often like a “wound too tight spring” with pitch mix issues……at least in ‘25. His ERA in ‘25 was 4.23 & he was 1-7. His 5 year career he has a 4.04 ERA and a record of 23-31. We didn’t trade Nolan Ryan. Varland had a 4.94 ERA for the Blue Jays in last 2 months of the season. He’s a horse & a competitor and he can be lights out some days. …….. I’ve said many times, if Louie was from Kenosha, the trade would be viewed differently………Rojas has a real shot at being a rotation guy after this year - this was the basis for the trade - Roden was another guy that has “a shot” but essentially a throw in guy. I’m sure many will not like this take but I just don’t see the moves being a bad thing for the organization’s future. There was a lot of drama and media buzz and surprise with the concentration of the moves, but not necessarily bad moves, from my viewpoint.

Always such a ray of sunshine for Twin’s fans!

Falvey is like a School Superintendent after the District builds a new school and wins an award ………. then the community quits paying taxes and the School District has to fire the good teachers (highest paid) to meet new budget constraints with no forewarning. Yep, it’s the Superintendent's fault ….”never liked him”! Can anyone see Tommy P. signing KFA with an overpay and maybe another FA to save face? “All part of our commitment to being competitive.” The franchise can obviously afford a $125M payroll if they can generate some interest. I SURE HOPE SO! I saw Dan Hayes state (maybe mis-state) on MlB Network that the Minority ownership bought 30% of the Club (I thought 20% range?) …………. regardless, I still do not believe that there was ZERO stipulation in “their investment terms” that said the Team needs to meet certain goals on spending/marketing/etc. Not having a say in day to day or in specific decisions doesn’t mean they are kept out n MUTE & IGNORED. Organization has to do something else positive with the roster or Falvey may be “The Martyr” be season’s end?

How many “good teams” have a Team Spend of $105M in 2026, with 10% of that total going to a former player???? The “partial blame” laid at the feet of ownership with the principal blame going to Falvey just doesn’t make sense to me. Spending 65-70% of what was spent in ‘23 and 9% of that total is being paid to Correa. It’s “Calvin Griffith Cheap” at Target Field these days!!!

If the media’s, completely subjective, comments have any effect on how your organization is run you need to fire yourself! The Athletic stated (Twins at #21) that if Rodrguez & a couple others had some better health ……”they would be much higher”. Does tga mean they’d be 16th or 6th? Historical health seems to have little sway on what’s happening now & into this summer if people/players are healthy now. It was a cowardly take in the Athletic!

Falvey probably lost his mind one day when Tom asked why ticket sales were down again……..that or he was tired of waking up and wanting to puke every morning because ownership and the fanbase don’t like the Roster, even though Team is spending 65-70% as much as they did in 2023. The fact that spending was cut/has been cut at the severe level we’ve seen & then to bitch about the FO’s inability to have an effective roster is nuts! Reducing spending to match revenues is business and essentially understandable BUT not after OWNERSHIP approves of a long-term signing of One guy at $35M/year. I’m not in love with Falvey or anyone else in the FO but the attacks for franchise current status being anywhere but on Ownership makes no sense to me.

Gonzalez is the organization’s “sleeper”, even after a stellar 2025. As you state, results matter not the rankings. Just hope he keeps it up through ‘26!

Absolutely think that 3 guys will leapfrog him. Of the FOUR depth starters (#5-#8) Festa seems like a very probable guy to be in the PEN, controlled innings coming off injury, prior to Opening Day. If the Top 4 guys are healthy, I think the Team chooses to be competitive and they move Matthews to the Closer role. This leaves Bradley & Abel along with Morris & Rojas for starter depth. I think Prielipp needs innings monitoring for another year with his fragile health…. can monitor his innings and get “production” from the PEN. By adding Raya & Klein to the mix, there are 5 total guys that have a solid chance to be in front of Adams. Then there’s the unknown of additional FA’s and n the PEN?

Not sure why timing on Jackson being waived is so critical/pressing or late? If Team wants him to pass through as to keep him in St Paul if unclaimed, it seems one would want other Team’s rosters to be filled or more “set” as time passes …. - right? Maybe there’s some twist I’m unaware of?

Agree completely with slant in first paragraph. As the writer, isn’t there a shade of not being honest in making Caratini’s Salary of approximately 10-12% more than Jeffers being an issue for playing time? Vazquez made more than 2X - 3X Jeffers for the duration of his contract and never approached a skewed amount of starts. Jeffers catching 70 of first 110 games and then getting traded at Deadline is possible. He may have some success as the Top guy and the Twins may offer an extension by July 1st - doubtful but things happen……probably backs won’t agree with stating? Jackson is. it a sought after catcher for ANY of the 31 other Teams so he’ll pass through after DFA’d and Twin’s will try to keep him at AAA with MiLB deal meeting his $1.8M plus a tiny bonus……..best case for Jackson.