JD-TWINS

Rogers never should have walked a .207 BA, LH batter with 2 outs & bases empty! ……..AND neither Lee nor Lewis can hit, so there’s that. Fun to see good stuff with “promise” come from the system. I can certainly “imagine” Rojas being a bigger value than Louie Varland at some point in the next year or so.

When was his last HR? Tough to get excited bruh, about a guy that has an OPS & OPS+ lower than Kody Clemens & Brooks Lee!!

In Emma’s favor - it’s a low bar to follow. I didn’t look at the stats - assume you are correct. My point is for Wallner to achieve his numbers …… he was sent down in ‘23 & ‘24 to get sharp & it worked. Sending him down essentially “filtered” what his numbers would have been if he had stayed with Big Club. It’s just a fact. Why are people opposed to trying the same approach in ‘26? ……… his ‘25 was “unfiltered” and didn’t go very well! ‘26 is obviously not going well!

Cherry picking “weeks” of the Summer that Wallner was worthy to be on the roster in ‘23 & ‘24 skew his overall from beginning of ‘23 -‘25. If he didn’t have the luxury to be sent to St Paul as he struggled (like most MLB “regulars”) he wouldn’t be anywhere near this position.In ‘23 & ‘24 he was viewed as a developing guy and WAS SENT DOWN to get right, both years. He DID perform well once coming back from his AAA stints, granted. He has been mediocre to terrible since the beginning of ‘25! My question was “…..where does he rank from the beginning of ‘25?” ……….that’s 474 PA’s through last weekend. He may not be in the Top 70. He currently leads the A.L. in K’s and his Slug% is near .325 and he’s hitting .183. CANNOT DEFEND those numbers. He battled & looked competitive in some at bats on Tuesday night - hope he can keep that up! View YOUR POST (same topic) from 11:32 Monday night …… seem to have made an about face - why???

To me, comparing Matt Wallner to Bryan Reynolds is wish-thinking. They are not viewed as the same level player - I would say the same about Garcia - Myers is up & down.

What’s the motivation or logic to replace a guy with a (small sample - but same 22 games as everyone else on roster) with a .468 OBP so far this season?

Pitch mix ….. command. % of how often a pitch is thrown is an indicator for sure, however, 3 Splits in a row in the dirt, all for balls, is a “pitch mix” problem. That was SWR on Tuesday to Lindor ……. he had already walked Simien and was behind 3-0 ….. 3 straight fastballs followed the 3 straight Spilts and the 3rd ended up in RF bleachers. Slider usage - at least in the 3rd inning, seemed lacking. Mixing pitches was definitely lacking!…..change up away from LH hitters? Can’t walk 3 guys in a 5 inning outing - his major issue! Lack of command with fastball is a continual problem - get the ball up and down more. Nice job with it on corner, away from RH hitters. Last pitch (fastball) in 3rd to Lindor was put on a tee!

I think they need to “ease” Royce back - actually just hoping they let Gray hit in his place - defense probably suffers a bit but I like his chances better v. Holmes than Royce, after 10 plus days off.

No baserunners until late in game - had nine on base total & pushed 5 across ……….. Williams was helpful! Efficient, but need to create more traffic to support Prielipp. Clay Holmes has a 1.96 ERA so it’s gonna be another challenge!

MANY of the poor performers “showed up” positively on Tuesday night. Banda was big! Wallner broke the ice with a hit & then really worked for the bases loaded walk/RBI! Clemens with a hustle double and then scoring on a base hit with some aggressive 3rd base coaching! Outman, pinch running and applying pressure with a steal - then hustling to 3B to avoid force out and load bases with no outs! Cole Sands can’t be overlooked - 2 nice innings to end it with a big Save! Lee & Lewis, not so much!

I like SWR …….. I realize I don’t know what pitches he’s not comfortable with in an outing. That said, he threw about 50% more Split Finger pitches than were called for …… could not get the pitch to be “competitive” more than 25% of the time. He walked 3 in 5 innings. He threw the first 3 pitches to Lindor (all Split Fingers) that were not competitive. He shook off Jeffers repeatedly when count was 0-2, to throw another wildly uncompetitive Split. Then he throws 2 fastballs to get back in count - then THIRD STRAIGHT fastball middle-middle. It was difficult to watch - lack of command and poor pitch mix isn’t going to play. Where was the SLIDER?? Where was the CHANGE-UP?? Can’t have success striking a couple guys out with a Split and then throw 50+% Splits for the game! Seemed like sheer stubbornness, not cerebral pitch mix. Lee - Lewis, our “untouchable trade pieces” from end of ‘23 season ………. underperforming is too nice! I get the starter was REALLY good but one of them has to make contact with the bases loaded.

Martin .484 OBP ….. Larnach .468 OBP Martin’s splits are almost identical v. LH or RH pitching ………. should figure out a way to get him in the starting line-up 80% of the time and see how that works over the next month. Larnach’s splits are not advantageous (never have been), he should continue to be platooned v. RH pitching in Left - Right - DH. The number of RH pitchers Team faces will steeply rise ……. there are 70-75% RH pitchers - starters v. Twins to date have been an INORDINATE amount of lefties. Bell at 1B 60% of the time - Caratini at 1B 20% of the time …………this leaves a spot for Larnach to DH a bunch v. RH starters ……..allowing Martin to be more of a fixture in LF.

Martin has 14 Walks & Larnach has 13 Walks

Larnach, hopefully, realizes the platoon measures are to optimize his performance when “in” the line-up. It’s working. He’s striking out at a 15% rate and his walk rate is sky high. I don’t really understand the angst over him “not swinging enough”? Repeatedly stating he “whiffs often” doesn’t seem to jive with the 15% K rate. I haven’t seen anyone say Martin & his walk rate are due to him “not swinging enough”. A .265 BA & .468 OBP (which is elevated in a small sample size) is all positive & it is the intention of the Platoon………..Martin’s similar success is due to the irregular amount of LH starters the Team has seen so far in ‘26 - he is getting positive results due to the Platoon……..I ASSUMED THIS WAS THE CASE….. it turns out Martin is hitting .250 BA v. LH pitching with a .250 Slug%. Versus RH pitching he’s got a .375 BA & a .875 Slug%. Sure seems he’s showing signs he should be playing nearly every day! Larnach’s splits, very early in the season, are .292 BA v. RH pitching and .167 BA v. LH pitching. Seems clear how to use him effectively.

Looks like, to me, with Lewis being activated today ………….(26 guys with only 12 pitchers on Active Roster)…….. when either Funderburk comes back or Prielipp is added later this week, either Outman or Wallner is displaced. Should be Outman. Do not think they’ll move Kriedler back with his versatility……..ability to play CF. Clemens is a candidate but he’s become part of the Team & the vibe, so while competitive they won’t DFA him first………. and he’s still part of the 1B mix defensively.

I cannot imagine that one could not go to every one of the 30 Teams & find 1, if not 2, OF that one would prefer to have over Matt Wallner. I think the Twins have 4-5 guys that I’d rather have.

Continuing to let him look like a fool, while striking out at a 42% rate seems every bit as irrational. His “success” was in ‘23 & ‘24 and in both instances he was sent back to St Paul to work on himself. In ‘24, he went down on April 16th and came back & WAS successful from July forward. Why is this such a terrible idea for a guy with options? What is Wallner’s status in the game amongst Outfielders since the beginning of ‘25? That’s 474 PA’s. Also, Eddie Julien had a nice 2023 as well.

My point to Cory was that I would certainly DFA Outman, or Option Wallner before I would displace Larnach. I was questioning why he seemed to blend them together, at this point. Larnach, v. RH pitching is a .775 OPS guy at this point …….maybe 110 OPS+. (15 HR’s) He won’t continue to walk at his current rate but he seems better against the one side, OBP from current .468 down to probable .360 ……… BA of .260. Strikeout rate will increase from 15% to something in the low 20’s………..basically, a decent value for a platoon in LF occasionally & principally, a DH …….. for $4.5M/yr. I don’t understand the general fandom angst.

How can you defend a guy that MOST here have said, “deserves more AB’s v. LH pitching” and he does nothing (in any season) to show this makes sense. I’m not saying that he is being used to his strengths ….. not really clear on what they may be at this point? Paralleling your point, if Matt Wallner hits 2HR and only strikes out 3 times in the next series, most here would laud his “coming along”, yet it would only be performance over 3 games ………. just like Roden & Emma in their latest series. Neither of those guys will bring negative WAR to the outfield - at a minimum. EVERYONE wants Wallner to be successful. His M.O., in his 2 successful seasons of ‘23 & ‘24, was time spent in St Paul to work things out and get his mind/approach right. He doesn’t have to be banished from the Team but he needs to get it together for a few weeks. Larnach is hitting to a level of what is his norm, v. RH pitching. Last year he was “exposed” v. LH pitching as he was the guy “allowed to face LH” …….118 AB’s v. LH pitching (approaching 25% of AB’s) and he sucked against them & it pulled his overall numbers into “why would Team tender him?” range. Larnach’s current K rate is 15% & Wallner’s is 42%. Wallner, formerly an OBP guy is currently at .272 & Larnach is at .468. Granted, Larnach will probably drop to .360 (K @ 22%) …….remove Wallner’s LH pitcher AB’s and he’s hitting .211 with a .302 OBP (K @ 38% for season). WALLNER has a Slug% of .333 - this is his biggest Red Flag, in the short term, to me. Bringing up WAR at this point seems odd…… Wallner at -.700 & Larnach at .300, 22 games in, 13.6% of season. Larnach projects to 2.2 WAR and Wallner projects to -5.15 WAR. Obviously, this could (probably will) shift but the glaring difference is my point. Wallner’s splits aren’t the ONLY reason to look at someone different. OUTMAN is brutal ….. his 2 hits came in one game. Maybe he’ll get on a roll……..can’t imagine how anyone might actually believe this will happen. I am not a “let’s promote” because I’m bored or curious or “xyz deserves a chance” guy. Players should force their way on to the roster with performance. Sometimes, players force their way off the roster due to performance. I’d like the Team represent themselves as best they can with both near term & long term blended into the decisions…….Outman and (current version) Wallner don’t fit that in my view.

I appreciate the thought of wanting change, but trading Wallner for anything of value is a storyline off Fantasy Island …… Larnach has value to the Twins & would bring value to another contender for “some” return.

Wallner has 34 AB’s v. LH pitching, I agree - too many for him, and his BA is .147 Wallner has 38 AB’s v. RH pitching, and I would say that’s enough for him, and his BA is .211 Wallner has a -.700 WAR & Larnach has a .300 WAR through 22 games (while Larnach’s use has been “shielding” him) I would take limited use of Larnach and a 2.5 WAR for the season! Rodriguez & Roden should both be elevated to the SHOW, displacing Outman & Wallner. Rodriguez for a DFA’d Outman & then a few days later, Roden for an Optioned Wallner (assuming his production doesn’t elevate profoundly).

Gotta ask, replace Larnach while keeping Outman & Wallner? ……..seems there is probably a specific order on who should be replaced. ……. -.300 WAR ….. -.700WAR ….. .300WAR respectively.

I have no problem (would prefer Culpepper actually at 2B & Houston at SS) ……… guys deserve to be deemed mentally ready for the step to MLB - everyone’s different……… I gotta rely on the organization to know when that “readiness” has arrived, decision not made on my fandom ………..my “short-term” is to ACT now regarding Lee’s defense while allowing Culpepper another 2-6 weeks to feel ready. If he’s ready Wednesday - let’s go!

Am a little surprised Wallner hasn’t been designated to the IL as of this morning after missing yesterday (scratched) with discomfort in his ribs after getting hit in the ribs a few days earlier. He’s still leading League in K’s with 34 & his WAR is tumbling, now at -.700. ……… Outman, after 2 hits has his WAR up to -.300. Due to his EFFORTS and flashes of nice play, Keaschall has been going unscathed here. Have lots of faith in him BUT his defense is blah and his offense, right now, is also really Blah. He may need an extra day off or a re-set in St Paul (sacrilege, I know) in another week? Keaschall has an OBP of .258 and only Outman (-13) has a lower OPS+ on the Club.

Assuming that they will start Prielipp one of the 3 games in New York. Since there was a day off Thursday & today, SWR is full rest (plus a day) on Tuesday ……… probably Prielipp Wednesday, with Ryan Thursday, after 5 days rest? Pitchers get hurt - just a bummer for Abel & Team on the timing after a couple nice outings! I thought the move with the two lefties was more of a “form” decision. Looks very likely both will pitch in the next 2-3 days.