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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    I think your “formula” fits baseball Teams everywhere. Matthews/Lopez/Ober all hurt ……. needing Adams to eat bulk innings……not good! Sands - Coulombe - Stewart - Varland - Topa make up the vast majority of the “front end” ……can’t be much better than this group on average. They have had some stinkers but that’s going to happen over 162 …….. through 93 games they probably have 160 appearances between them so if 15 aren’t great, that’s 90% pretty good. Now, if we roll Alcala - Wentz - Funderburk - etc. (the 8th guy) into the mix, it hasn’t been pretty. Line-up is a problem - the problem in my estimation. Can’t score 2 or less runs in 1/3 of games played and gave much of a chance to be over .500! Lewis & Wallner need to light it up in a hurry and could really use Keaschall ASAP (couple weeks?) for some energy……..displacing Kiersey.
  2. JD-TWINS
    Gotta get Ober/Matthews back to take at least the 5th spot……..,Paddack is no longer living the charmed life ……… last 4-5 weeks have generally been very rough with him in the mound. Adams isn’t the answer. Paddack is the 8th guy in the PEN by mid-August…….may be too late at that point? If Team has to run Adams & Paddack out there another 2-3 times they might as well punt. 3 starters out may just be too much to overcome…….accompanied by an often anemic offense.
  3. JD-TWINS
    To me, the reason you don’t trade him for prospects is there is too much risk (obvious) & rising stars that may be attractive (Duran if Boston) will need to be paid in 2-3 years as well - just like Ryan. Collecting good starting pitching is a goal for every team - can’t trade out if that situation.
  4. JD-TWINS
    Not likely available is the reality. Holliday is nearly an All-star ……. hitting .300 plus for last 20 games & he’s 20. Maybe the most highly touted guy in Baltimore in my memory……..they marketed him harder than Rutschman & Henderson. They won’t consider trading him for at least 5 years…. he’s successful at 20. Not trying to be negative but if A’s trade Kurtz at this point the GM would be lynched in Sacramento. Can’t trade huge upside, controllable, every day bats………similar to Twins trading Lewis in mid ‘23. I guess my point is that no organization is going to trade a high end every day performer for a pitcher that makes a potential difference over 6 innings - 32 times per year. To me, high-end pitchers are developed internally or signed as FA’s. Don’t see good bats traded for established arms……..maybe if Holiday or Kurtz weren’t yet in the Show and there was uncertainty hanging on to them? …….as you know, these two are on their way.
  5. JD-TWINS
    Wallner & Lewis were on IL, then not performing - Jonah Bride, Kiersey, etc. have been filling out the roster…….Alcala & others were brutal ……. there weren’t as many options to use, IMO.
  6. JD-TWINS
    I thought that before the first pitch yesterday - no stopping him in Georgia, apparently.
  7. JD-TWINS
    The FO isn’t considering trading an All-Star pitcher, in his prime, & affordable for 2 more years…….not considering! Trading for Top 100 prospects is gambling - period. It’s not a win……it’s hoping & projecting 2-3 years out for results. Can’t do that with Lopez - CC - Buxton in their primes and signed for 3-5 more years (getting $68M combined) ……….gotta spend up to $160M on payroll and win now (‘25 - ‘28).
  8. JD-TWINS
    They won 13 straight at one point - right? That’s 162-0 pace. Lots of things are possible and not worth betting your house on………..Winning 4 in a row 3 times and .500 the rest …..plausible, to me. 3 games out of Wildcard as of this morning. Don’t understand the continual pessimism by what seems to be the majority. Is it just a drive to be “right” if things go wrong and silent if things go right? There’s a whole bunch of teams that aren’t happy with their season at this point ……. 18 of 30. Alcala & Jax both had double digit ERA’s & 4 big losses around May 1. Ober has sucked for most of half dozen outings - Lopez has been out. Lewis & Wallner have contributed almost zero. Going into season if these things were known to be facts & Team was 2-3 games out of Playoffs at All-star break, most would be optimistic - right? I get the Twins are not in prime position to be in the Playoffs but the teams behind and just ahead aren’t very confident either.
  9. JD-TWINS
    I agree - no guarantee with guys coming back! IF Lopez is what everyone expects - IF Matthews is just League average - IF Keaschall does 80% of what he did in his first 7 games - IF Royce Lewis - Wallner - CC play to their capabilities (not out of their minds - just at a minimum of expectations) it’s very plausible for Team to go 42-29 from here on out……that’s still only 86 total wins……borderline Wildcard. Ober needs to bounce back & Paddack needs to hold up with health!
  10. JD-TWINS
    Agreed - if they win current series and next two against Pirates & Rockies they can be at .500 and 3 games (or so) out of Playoffs on July 20. Lewis - Wallner - CC - Lee get going, with addition of Keaschall (for Kiersey) they can go 41-29 free m July 20 forward. Complete left turn here - how is Randy Dobnack or somebody in St Paul not a better option than Joey Wentz?????? His ERA is comparable to Jonah Bride.
  11. JD-TWINS
    Their mop-up guy gave up one run - PEN was well rested and it was a 2 run lead when SWR was lifted. His WHIP in last 3 starts is .800 and his ERA is .60 …… he’s 3-0 in those games - that means Team is 3-0 in those games. SWR is obviously being misused!!!! …..more senseless complaining. Lopez is the ACE - he’s 29, makes $21.75M to continue in a 2-0 game. SWR is the 4th/5th starter and he’s 24 and makes $800K because he’s in his 2nd real season in the Show & is 24.
  12. JD-TWINS
    Super entertaining broadcast with the quartet last night……… wondering how this type of approach may be tried again with Twins or other organizations as it would certainly boost interest & ratings? Very enjoyable listening to the “baseball details” with a reality check from guys who lived it for years.
  13. JD-TWINS
    What wonderful players that are going to impact the roster in ‘26 or ‘27 are you trading “rentals” for??? Nobody is motivated to give you premium youth for 2 months of service, regardless of their needs. All you are getting back are “prospects” for role players. As good as Bader & Castro have been this year……. their career numbers & age going forward don’t vault them forward in how they are viewed. They are role players/fringe starters. If Castro keeps hitting, he is going to command $12M plus - I think 5 years is a big stretch for sure. Bader as well, if he keeps hitting, he could command $12M on a short deal. If Team is out of it at end of the month - trade Bader for whatever……..assuming there’s no vibe that he’d like to stay. Can trade and try to re-sign in off season if desired. Castro, I would keep and try to work toward an amicable 3 year extension. Supposedly, Emma will be ready next year? Martin is a slim possibility. Other guys that keep payroll under $155 (w/o trades) can fill the last 4 spots. Bottom line is that without NEW ownership and the FO having the ability to spend in ‘26 what they spent in ‘23, expecting (hoping for) success is a fantasy. There are no magical deadline trades for fringe players. Trade Duran - OK, that could harvest real value. Castro & a young arm gets you back something less than Castro or the young arm. France, Julien, etc. do not move the needle for anyone on the other side.
  14. JD-TWINS
    Based on what has been suggested so far, Eddie Julien must be lighting up AAA?……I can’t imagine him on Twin’s roster this year nor going forward. He deserves a chance somewhere else but needs to be blended as a throw in with one or two others to get any interesting return. Adams showed, IMO, nothing to be excited about this past weekend. Stuff isn’t good enough. I see us continuing to try and compete, at least through August. May then see Martin and/or Emma. Vazquez may be attractive for a Playoff bound team with an injured 2nd catcher at the end of this month. Return would be an A ball “prospect” at best ……. maybe just $$$? If Wallner doesn’t get it together, Emma may get his spot by end of July? I try to make playoffs with an assumed .500 record by end of July - Playoff roster: IF: Lewis - CC - Lee - France - Keaschall - Clemens - Vazquez - Jeffers OF: Bader - Castro - Buxton - Wallner - Larnach Rotation: Lopez - Ryan - Ober - Festa PEN: Coulombe - Sands - Topa - Paddack - Varland - Jax - Duran - SWR Bader - Castro - Coulombe ……if still healthy & performing at ‘25 current levels……they should all be offered fair extension $$. Bader needs another $2.5M on top of his existing deal for next year - push mutual option year to ‘27. Castro should be offered $26M for 3 years. Coulombe is worth extending a year at $3.75M. Trading these guys for scraps at the deadline to see if somebody else can play is short sighted to me.
  15. JD-TWINS
    I’m not at all concerned with it messing up his swing ……. I understand the emotional pull for him to do this in Georgia! Great opportunity. That said, the entire coaching staff & FO will be on sedatives and holding rosaries throughout the contest - he’s been a walking injury for 7 straight years and doing this, to me, doesn’t fit with Team sport ideology from the Player.
  16. JD-TWINS
    I didn’t read any thread about Wallner other than your arguments that he doesn’t deserve criticism. Not jumping on some bandwagon nor blaming him for Sunday’s outcome. I don’t care about yesterday’s game or Thursday’s game or any other single game ……… he’s been very disappointing nearly every game! Sunday Jax gave up a couple hits and then got snake bit with 3 consecutive toppers/rollers in front of or adjacent to the mound - Topa failed to make many good pitches and blew up on a routine play to 1B. Between them they gave up 5 runs. Wallner isn’t anywhere near the blame for Sunday, IMO……. He’s 50 points below his OPS+ for last year - he’s been disappointing, routinely since his return from IL………after a handful of decent games immediately upon his return. I don’t get the serious defense of his performance? I understand he strikes out (love his power) - still, Clemens has 2 more HR in 28 less AB’s - he’s a waiver pick-up, so not an extremely high bar.
  17. JD-TWINS
    Kiersey hardly counts - if anybody is stacking him up in an offensive debate, there is no real debate……..Vazquez has to play because of the scheme the Team uses at catcher, defensively. That said, France has tailed off as well & the formerly DFA’d Clemens has never been expected to be an offensive cog……seems tend on to plug a hole. Wallner was supposed to be one of the Top 3-4 performers in the line-up going into the season, offensively…….he’s got 28 more AB’s than Clemens and 8 less RBI. It’s tough to have 8 HR & only 14 total RBI……bad ”recently” has been well over a month.
  18. JD-TWINS
    I’m assuming that unless the pitcher mistakingly throws out of the Wind-up with Wallner on base, everyone knows Wallner (and most of the rest of the Club) does not have a green light to steal on his own.
  19. JD-TWINS
    DJL44 - what’s there to disagree about? Wallner is brutal. He’s from Forest Lake and that’s great for fan interest but that’s about his sole contribution lately…….. He’s got 160 AB’s 55% of the way through the season and he’s produced .1 WAR. His OBP is under .300. He has ability for sure - if one can’t put it to use it doesn’t help. Royce Lewis has ability as well. No doubt, the two biggest disappointments of the year, to date. Kody Clemens was a DFA claim and in 138 AB’s he’s produced .8 WAR…….to me, there’s no defending Wallner. I like him, and wish him the absolute best but he’s been not very good for some time!
  20. JD-TWINS
    Guys with lower OPS than Wallner since he has been back from his pulled leg muscle? ….. ZERO. He’s somewhere between ,195 - .205 BA, & there is no defense for that!
  21. JD-TWINS
    He did pitch the 9th - it was Sunday afternoon and he threw 2 innings on Friday night and had pitched Tuesday/Wednesday as well.
  22. JD-TWINS
    Can’t imagine you were searching for McNally & Dobson……..the CF was Paul Blair.
  23. JD-TWINS
    So, at 29, he’s hitting a HR in 7.8% of his AB’s…..every 12.8 AB. In 3 plus years prior he hit a HR in 3.9% of his AB’s or every 25 AB……his bat speed is up this year………what’s changed?
  24. JD-TWINS
    Even with Keaschall at 100%, Clemens stays in roster ahead of Kiersey. Larnach - Bader - Buxton - Wallner - Castro - Clemens (RF) is plenty of coverage and it seems to me that Clemens is also the back-up 1B right now. Even at .215 BA he still has some leash……Kiersey pinch runs or plays defense 2-3 days per week and gets a hit about once a month.
  25. JD-TWINS
    6 for 44 with 4 HR in those 6 hits………I saw the Bomb to Right in Cincinnati in person and last two I’ve seen have been to left field, one in power alley and today’s LF drive………….10 HR since joining TWINS. 29 years old. 376 AB’s before joining Twins - 15 HR 128 AB’s with Twins - 10 HR …….he’s found something here! 🤞
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