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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    Put the pipe down…….3 guys that are essentially all committed AND too expensive OR a guy that quit Managing 2 decades ago. How about Harvey the imaginary rabbit?
  2. JD-TWINS
    Martin “seems” to have evolved into a probable contributor (he looks to be playing with a maturity)……..Keaschall’s success after breaking his forearm & being down 3 plus months, that’s very encouraging. I agree with your comments on the guys that haven’t blossomed - in contrast to Julien, Outman was #3 in N.L. ROY in ‘23…….not washed yet, but a completely different organization in the Dodgers …. they couldn’t seem to fix him either & gave up.
  3. JD-TWINS
    I understand your point but to be clear, SF traded Wade Jr. in June for “player to be named later” and they had to pick up a chunk of his annual $5M salary in order for Angels to take him……he had modest success prior.
  4. JD-TWINS
    They won a playoff series in ‘23 with same Manager & GM. They were on the rise. Agreed?? Payroll went from $124M - $134M - $154M from ‘21 - ‘23. Agreed? Lopez salary increases in ‘24 per contract & CC was set to make $35M. OWNERSHIP CUTS PAYROLL from $154M down to $129M in ‘24. Agreed? (16.5%) ……pretty tough to add to the ‘23 core under these circumstances!! Based on previous trend with Ownership over 3 years, the FO’s expectation for budget planning in ‘23 wasn’t “…….we’ll probably cut payroll total next year by 16.5%”. Agreed? Can’t run a sports franchise nor an IT company nor a manufacturing company if Management doesn’t have a view for spending expectations from Ownership out 2-5 years…….at least a general feel. Can’t decimate the budget for labor/talent and then, after the fact, have analysts compare the company’s results to competitors that have historically spent less in your industry. Agreed? Has Falvey & regime been great? - maybe not. Was Baldelli a perfect Manager? - no. ………Should OWNERSHIP DECISIONS be blamed for 75% + (IMO) of the decline over the past 2 seasons? - certainly! Injuries and players not playing to just average/norm expectations have been (IMO) 20% of Team’s issues. Those two percentages added doesn’t leave a lot of blame to go around for FO & Field Mgmt.
  5. JD-TWINS
    Stewart - Coulombe - Cruz - Santana - Correa - France - Bader….. all thought of in 15 seconds of no research…….FA’s that delivered. No FO “consistently wins one sided trades”….that’s silly. Your depth of knowledge and expectations is weak, IMO. Payroll: $124M in ‘21 - $134M in ‘22 - $154M in ‘23 (playoff series win) - Correa had been signed to big $$ contract and Ownership cuts payroll to $129M in ‘24 & Lopez contract kicked up in $$ (2 guys made-up 41% of player spend) - $131M in ‘25. The “hope” is that the Organization can spend $125M in ‘26 with some in press thinking it may not be $100M……….my point is without the forward knowledge on spending cuts and no knowledge of them until the commitment was made on Correa, how does Falvey operate? He’s not a magician! Nobody signs a guy to pay him $35M and then cuts payroll total by $35 at the same time!!! Other Teams succeed with low payrolls - sure - but the President/GM have knowledge of spending expectations from ownership before CUTS are made. Correa’s $35M was 27% of the total spend in ‘24………. the player spend budget from ‘23 to ‘24 was reduced by 16.5%………both of these are kind of difficult to plan around with no knowledge spending was going to be slashed!!!!! Keep the guys now on roster and give Falvey $40M to spend (back to 2022 spending) - do it by mid-October & Team will be back in the playoffs in ‘26.
  6. JD-TWINS
    The players quit hitting from mid-August on …… can’t Nanage your way out of that. How’d the Mets hit this past weekend?
  7. JD-TWINS
    If Miranda spends the entire year at AAA & sucks after having a 12 game, historic hit streak last July, it seems to me that’s the failure of a 3rd year guy. Julien, essentially the same thing. Wallner hits .275 for a month and then hits .195 for 2.5 months…….the other 2 months are on IL or in St Paul for past 3 years. IMO, guys have to look in the mirror and figure it out. Listen to Plouffe describe how Morneau spent hours and hours in the cage nearly daily …..,,. 2 time batting champ & MVP. Work ethic & grinding season after season is how guys maintain and improve……..along with coaching/instruction. Coaches don’t have a magic wand……if they did, nearly all prospects would make it to the Show & be successful. Keaschall - Larnach - Wallner - Julien - Miranda all have access from same group of guys. Popkins was clueless at end of ‘24 and now he’s the one of the best instructors/coaches in the game as “he’s turned Toronto around” …..,, nobody is saying that. Springer - Guerrero - Bichette and others are all hitting well (at a high level) Kirk as well, 4 guys at .300 or better with 3 more above .265………players play!
  8. JD-TWINS
    Do we think Dave Roberts doesn’t lean on analytics - nor the other 28 teams in MLB? Get ready for more of the same from whoever takes over - it’s the new reality and has been and there ain’t no going back. Roberts is successful because they have outstanding players. Do people here really think they know baseball better than Rocco and his staff. Do they think he wouldn’t win in 2/3 of the Clubhouses in the playoffs?? 3-4 teams are in on smoke and mirrors and a couple got a lot of help from mediocre to terrible competitors down the stretch. Managers can matter, for sure! But they don’t win 85-95 games w/o good players - that perform to their norm levels!!!
  9. JD-TWINS
    The MANAGER doesn’t “develop young players” ……… I live in Cincinnati and Francona isn’t/hasn’t developed anyone here. They send guys up & down continually to find “somebody” to contribute. Outside of DeLaCruz (about 38 & half of last year) they don’t steal bases. They do have 3-4 guys that can actually bunt - developed well before they arrived at MLB level. ……….”systems” and handfuls of coaches develop talent through the minors. Guys don’t “develop” at the MLB level other than mental fortitude and physical toughness to handle the grind. Sure, they improve but they had to already be successful to get up through 3-4 levels in MiLB over 2-4 years. Managers build a team culture and try to establish an attitude he wants players to take on, in general I don’t disagree that a fresh voice from the Manager won’t be a positive going forward …., I don’t believe much of the Twin’s issues over the past 2 years were heavily Baldelli’s issue…. players play & his were hurt or mediocre in many cases! Skip Schumacher is going to get paid by someone.
  10. JD-TWINS
    Yes, change is good! Lee - Clemens - Roden ….. are all degrees of changes to make. Guys below them should be gone……Miranda - Julien - Fitzgerald - Gasper ….,……etc. etc. How about Jeffers at 1B (Catch once a week) and Perada & FA at catcher? ……. Vazquez for $4M? Anyone else worthwhile in FA market behind the plate? PEN help & 1 proven BAT are needed!!
  11. JD-TWINS
    Low Bar isn’t the approach to take……. .202 over last 300 AB’s, even with a dozen HR’s ……. he’s barely the 13th guy to start the year, IMO……essentially the same spot he had with the Phillies last Spring.
  12. JD-TWINS
    Agree, he looks like a 48 year old playing in a 25 year old body - lack of strength and quickness is glaring!! He’s a good depth guy around the dirt but I sure would like to see him not in the starting line-up more than 3 days/week. His Dad being a College Coach and Brook’s level of baseball acumen has been overshadowed by his lack of success at the plate. He could & is probably close to emerging into a 20 HR guy but his lack of hard hit balls outside of that stat is way too low!
  13. JD-TWINS
    IMO, they are committed to Rojas from Toronto and Roden was as much of a flyer as Outman. Can he hit???? …..doubt they hang on to both he & Outman for more than a couple months as it seems higher upside youth will be pushing. No clue on options available for either? Gonzalez & not far behind, Jenkins in May - June eat up a couple OF spots. I’m HOPEFUL that one of their last 3 #1 picks at SS can actually be ready by later May as well. Not sure on Fitzgerald’s options? Lawyerson has been close enough to keep…… Ohl seems to be on the fringe of enough stuff to be consistently effective, IMO…….less confident in him than even Tonkin.
  14. JD-TWINS
    Don’t want to hear about Julien’s high OBP ……. his league leading “strikeouts looking” in ‘24 and mild improvement in ‘25 (less AB’s) negate any value of working pitchers for walks. He can’t hit with ANY reliability. Clemens hits for same poor BA!! His OBP is 30-60 points less depending upon which year of Julien’s career one looks at, while he had a pretty good power season. Clemens is probably the 13th guy on the roster due to defensive flexibility/cost/continuity……gotta get a regular, better hitter, at 1B!! Fitzgerald - Vazquez - Julien - Miranda gotta all be gone from 40 man……might bring Vazquez back for $4M?? Hatch - Lawyerson - Ohl - Misiewicz are all questionable 40 man guys…….Tonkin? Kiersey - Outman - McCusker - Roden are all one step out the door relative to 40 man….to be filled by Youth!
  15. JD-TWINS
    Definitely need pieces in PEN! I’m assuming Funderburk has earned a spot over last 2 months and Topa - Sands are in as well. Raya - Prielipp - Rojas - Matthews - Festa - Adams………..re-sign Thielbar? Couple other FA signings? First Base & PEN have to be the Focus for ‘26. Abel or Bradley - Lopez/Ryan/Ober/SWR Catcher, arguably still a hole……..the kid that came up last 3 weeks seems to be serviceable ……. nobody is going to like this, but Vazquez, for $5-$6M may not be a terrible choice.
  16. JD-TWINS
    All good! …….. BUT Clemens is not an acceptable MLB starter going forward (realism), 13th guy on the roster in ‘26 because he can play 4 positions and is durable, OK. Not a starter on a GOOD team. I’m not a Clemens hater but he had his BEST year and had a .284 OBP. 19 HR’s are significant in 342 AB but he hit 3 in one game (big game!) & he was at .205 BA and rallied to hit .216. ………Lewis - Lee OBP are not good either but theoretically they had down years (Lewis) or are learning (Lee).
  17. JD-TWINS
    “You need to spend money & get good players” Spending money at “a reasonable rate” (i.e. $154M in ‘23) is a pretty big factor in getting the players. The GM/President doesn’t decide on the spend level of an organization. If $$ spent went the right direction, modestly, in ‘24, the results of last 2 years would have been different (4-4.5%/yr.)……….imagine if payroll increased $7M/yr each year since ……… $161M & $168M the past 2 seasons. They are more likely to be above .500 at deadline, and trades of relievers don’t happen at end of July and Team is giving Guardians & Tigers problems. Can’t reduce spending from $150M (‘22) - $156M (‘23) - $130M (‘24) - $138M (‘25) & expect a bunch of positive moves from the GM.
  18. JD-TWINS
    Generally, I agree completely. I didn’t like trading Varland (3-4 more years of control) but Rojas seems to be a worthwhile risk to take for your 3rd/4th best reliever. ……. Roden seems like another AAAA guy, IMO. Abel & Bradley are both upside guys along with Rojas. The odds of 2 of them being productive are pretty strong! Complaining about “all the trades” is just emotional nonsense due to a terrible outcome to the season. Understandable. Can’t abandon logic though, as you point out. Paddack - Coulombe - Bader - Castro were all getting traded if not competitive enough at deadline. All impending FA’s. Dobnack was always up for trade for 2-3 years. That’s 5 of the eleven guys. Stewart has always been an injury waiting to happen - went to LA & then got put in IL within 2-3 weeks…… FO took a flyer on Outman. Can’t argue that with his fragile physique…….getting off Correa made sense! Duran - Jax - Varland were all tough to see go but the returns were at least reasonable even if not embraced by fans.
  19. JD-TWINS
    What’s he supposed to say about the PEN? Write us the “proper statement”. ?????……. ”……,we need to strengthen the PEN both with internal options and by exploring the Free Agent market……” Just as basic & empty as saying nothing. People at TD (many to most) thinking that any professional sports organization owes its fans details of the specifics on personnel plans is nuts. The bullpen obviously has to be addressed. Until a budget is established by (the real problem) OWNERSHIP, there’s no plan that can be discussed nor implemented. Prielipp - Rojas - Funderburk are all lefties that can be in the mix. Sands - Topa - Adams - Matthews - Festa - Raya are all in the mix. ………Seems Abel & Bradley, their pedigrees, gets them more in line for the rotation mix. Coulombe - Thielbar are 1 year guys (1 of them) to consider as FA’s that are effective & affordable………Thielbar is having an excellent year with 60 plus appearances and a .86 WHIP & 2.37 ERA……currently $2.75M/yr …….bring him back home for $3.6M?? SWR - Ryan - Lopez - Ober - Bradley/Abel in rotation seems pretty probable. To me, the fate of Matt Wallner and how he gets fixed or tracking in a better direction is a big key for what direction/how the position players shake out. Lewis - Lee - Keaschall - Larnach - Martin - Buxton - Jeffers - Wallner ………. couple FA’s that have offensive track record can help supplement the coming of Gonzalez - Jenkins - Rodriguez. Clemens is “maybe” a 13th guy on the roster in April………next 4 months will be enlightening.
  20. JD-TWINS
    Not sure what you’re saying here? Varland - Jax - Duran are all guys I’d rather have than any reliever that will be available via FA or via trade. Am I agreeing with you? Paddack - Stewart - Coulombe - Dobnack made up about $14M annualized in their salaries and two are ineffective and other two were hurt, so moving any or all of them made sense and their flaws have materialized over last 8 weeks…………Getting off France - Bader - Castro - Correa all made sense as well, with Ober - Lopez - Festa - SWR - Matthews all missing time at varying lengths & therefore not being able to compete. The 3 relievers mentioned right away would all be solid contributors going forward ……. trading any one of them I would have understood - all 3, that’s created a problem going forward.
  21. JD-TWINS
    Pagan makes $8M/yr, last 2 years, and just got his 30th Save yesterday. Marte stole a HR in RF to get Emilio his save! Cannot pay him $8-$10M and then fret every time he comes into the game! Jax at $3-$4 in ‘26 & Duran at maybe $8M…….didn’t want to pay them so the spending potential on PEN is bleak, IMO. Williams at $8.6M this year. His WHIP isn’t terrible - striking out 13.3 per 9 innings. His Walks are down in ‘25. Can’t imagine some Team doesn’t pay him at least that much going forward. ……. he’s taken more lumps since coming back from injury last year with a bunch of losses …. ERA is up 2.75 runs in ‘25 but. IMO, the ‘20-‘23 stats will carry his future paycheck……….he’s not the same guy after last year’s injury! Matthews - Prielipp - Raya - Adams - Funderburk - Sands - Topa - FA’s x 2 ….. can this work??
  22. JD-TWINS
    Cody can’t play everyday (75% of starts v. all righties) on a good MLB Club. IMO, he may get a shot at the 13th roster spot due to his position flexibility. He’ll be 30 and in his best season, by far, he’s carrying a .291 OBP. His OPS+ is 101 & that’s with 19 HR’s. Probably deserves a shot out of Spring Training but can’t be considered the primary guy at any position! Gonzalez & Jenkins both have a real shot with Big Club by June 1st…….. seems to be Fedko weighed against Martin in the Spring. Seems Martin has done enough over last few weeks to earn an OF spot (1 of 5) in ‘26, at least to start. ‘26 OF: Martin - Buxton - Larnach or Wallner - Gonzalez - Jenkins by June 1st.
  23. JD-TWINS
    Outman was #3 in N.L ROY voting in ‘23. …… I haven’t quit on him yet - Roden, personally, I have no interest in going forward.
  24. JD-TWINS
    Why trade a really good, committed guy that just had his best season ever and has played over 100 games in back to back years? As you point out, he’s very affordable and that’s not changing. I have him on the field as much as possible for the next 4-5 years. Atlanta wanted him and openly made it known (through channels) to the Twins at the All-Star Break, and Georgia is his home - he didn’t want Twins to entertain the trade. Martin - Larnach - Wallner on the periphery for ‘26………. Jenkins - Gonzalez - Rodriguez are coming ……. Churning veterans (continuously) that can play, for “prospects”, isn’t a plan to a winning Club…….it’s just musical chairs. I see the same comments about Lopez and Ryan - two more guys that can play at known costs for 2-3 years…………..why trade them to get a guy that “might be the next Ryan?”
  25. JD-TWINS
    In August-September of ‘24 the TD following had determined the Twins players needed a new voice and the hitting coach was a bum………..same this year with a new hitting coach. Odd? Toronto fired a guy and hired David Popkins. He has got 4 guys in Toronto that are at .300 or very close AND producing runs. 7 guys hitting .265 or higher……… so does Toronto have players that take responsibility for their own improvement while working with their new coach or is it just dumb luck that (after the Twin’s hitters collapsed in ‘24) Toronto has improved immensely in ‘25 with Popkins over their ‘24 campaign? Sighting different styles amongst hitters seems silly to me as every line-up I’ve ever seen has 5/6 different looks with their everyday hitters……Matt Wallner needs to get to work in the off-season, period. His list of holes and poor habits need to be fixed by him. You & I could each give him 3/4 things to change from our couch……HE needs to get it through his head he needs to make changes…….coaches don’t step into the batter’s box……..my point is he’s getting coached & has been coached & nobody suggested what he’s doing is the right way!!! Organizations let players that have had success continue to do what makes them feel comfortable and do what has brought them prior success……until it isn’t working, clearly. Players play and they are responsible for results!!
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