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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    Sure, if those are real, that’s his best move. Obviously, my point is Twins positioning themselves to somehow justify offering Jeffers a QO has to have better alternatives!
  2. JD-TWINS
    If Team (any team) can absorb $23M for a year, seems signing Realmuto for 2 years at $31M would make more sense - trade Jeffers and a young arm (Festa/Morris) somewhere for another player that’s ready now or has been successful in the Show……….same 2 years spend of near $31M for this year’s $6.6 plus next year’s $23M if it’s Jeffers in Arb & QO. …….??
  3. JD-TWINS
    So, I think we agree - “keep”, yes………$23M via QO, not likely in this world.
  4. JD-TWINS
    Your #2 scenario maybe comes true if he hits .300 with 18HR ………or is trending awfully close to those numbers. He’s not a good defensive catcher and probably doesn’t have enough stamina to perform at a decent level if he catches more than 100 games. QO? I get your scenario for ‘27 and the lack of organization’s motivation for signing up to spend money in such an uncertain labor situation! That’s going to be an interesting buzz after Winter Mtgs…….the ‘27 outlook.
  5. JD-TWINS
    No trades unless it’s outside the Top 3 starters and coupled with someone for a REAL bat (Red Sox - Duran type) Lopez/Ryan SWR are Top 3 to me heading into the Winter. This said, Bradley is #5 just because we gotta give it a shot for at least 6 weeks to start season. Abel was brought in as a future starter. Festa & Matthews were both lower picks that have developed. I try Matthews in a back end/Closer role and if Festa’s health allows, he’s at AAA with Abel and potentially a Pen arm by June? Prielipp gets converted to Pen ASAP. Rojas develops at AAA.
  6. JD-TWINS
    It seems that if Jeffers is “probably the top catching free agent in next year’s class”……. he would have pretty fair value at this year’s deadline - right? Anyway, trading the only real/viable catcher currently in the organization for a High A pitcher with a 4.41 ERA and a AA Catcher that’s 25 and not in MLB top 500 prospects (#22 in Philly) is not a great idea. Not sure how the author thinks this may be close to worthwhile?
  7. JD-TWINS
    Or you could spend $33M to have a similar defensive shortstop (declining) and a guy who doesn’t hit at his previous level nor stay healthy………so Lee plays a third of the games anyway, covering for Correa’s back, feet, need for rest, etc. Abel gave up half dozen runs in an inning plus and was sent down then pitched at MlB level again. Roden was playing in the Show and got hurt. Idk what you’re arguing here. Jax, in ‘25, 4.23 ERA …. 1-7 record ……. .5 WAR. He’s got tremendous stuff!! Like many guys on the mound, I wonder about his pitch mix and what’s going on between his ears? He’s got a 4.03 ERA for his stellar career. I like Jax - independent of that, Bradley has thrown 140 innings in the SHOW for 2 consecutive seasons - if he can’t work as a starter, I do think he has an opportunity to match Jax like numbers throwing to 3-5 guys per outing. ……. Jax too washed out as a starter…….same with Varland……..lack of durability was the root, but same for Duran.
  8. JD-TWINS
    Bradley is the only “non-prospect” they got back. (why would others be in MLB last 2 months of ‘25?) He wasn’t good but if he were good in Tampa in ‘25 they wouldn’t have traded him. He’s a relatively young guy with good upside. He has as much chance of contributing to wins going forward as Jax would have had in his role. Didn’t love the trade either but 6 starts are just that, SIX. Thinking getting rid of $23M per year for a guy that’s hurt A LOT, and is obviously declining, makes perfect sense. The trade didn’t suck, Brooks Lee, that’s a different story.
  9. JD-TWINS
    The Varland trade was definitely difficult to understand at the time. Bottom line is it was Rojas for Varland…….a very good prospect, left handed, with a chance to be in the rotation by ‘27. Roden was a throw in sweetener as a flyer, no real expectations. I like Louie and was not in love with the trade. However, Varland was a 16th round (close) draft pick and he’s overachieved. He’s very durable at this point and has great potential as a mid inning/set-up guy! Probably effective but a real ceiling. Not personal here but to all his supporters here at TD, if he was from Kenosha and pitched at Wisconsin Stout I think there would be far less angst. Still a questionable move but not nearly as sensitive.
  10. JD-TWINS
    Stewart has always been an injury waiting to happen - no issue there. No issue with Bader/Castro - Coulombe was a short time signing so no issue. Dobnack & Paddock were not worthy of keeping. Correa move made sense due to his level of health/performance & saved $24M/yr over next 3 years. Jax - Duran - Varland are the guys that stung on differing levels. Bradley, Rojas, Tait, & Abel have the ability to make the sting subside, over time. Sure should’ve some results from pitching options well before the end of ‘27! I don’t see the deadline as some “firesale” since most of the $$ saved revolve around just the Correa move.
  11. JD-TWINS
    To me, Matthews seems to provide the ability to be a Closer……right? Forget that he has potential to be an OK starter and ask, could he be an effective back end guy? We all want every prospect to be the next Blyleven but that happens every 10-15 years. Abel - Rojas - Bradley all seem to be profiled as “starters” to me. Morris - Adams - Matthews - Raya - Prielipp are all guys that should be in the mix for the ‘26 PEN.
  12. JD-TWINS
    Nothing wrong with not struggling early in career, particularly coming back in same season after getting hit and having a broken wrist …….. I do give the nod to Keaschall in the box just due to Martin’s accumulated PA’s prior to his last 181. That said, to me, Martin definitely looked like he had turned the corner last year over last couple months! His demeanor seemed more calm and confident and he got results at the plate. As you state, his OBP was impressive. He should start 115-125 games (as the plan) coming out of Spring Training. Hoping for good health! He can be a real positive.
  13. JD-TWINS
    Gonzalez given a try at 1B going forward v. corner OF? How about shifting Martin to 1B if Gonzalez can’t handle IF? Martin definitely has good infield instincts as a former middle infielder……maybe the best conversion candidate from the OF to 1B? Gotta have better options at 1B than Clemens! Roden hitting .180 over 153 AB’s combining both stints in MLB is not making me warm & fuzzy. He’s got to hit his way on to the club - can’t just give him a slot in the OF. I like Martin - Gonzalez - Buxton - Larnach - Wallner to start the season with most of the changes you suggest by end of July…….would like to keep Buxton though.
  14. JD-TWINS
    My point is that more spending on players to attract more fans, via being competitive with a better roster, is a $$$$ wash or very near to being a wash. Spend $50M to be competitive and draw 600,000 more patrons and the difference in dollars in and dollars out is meager.
  15. JD-TWINS
    The spending from Teams on players to satisfy fans desires and thus getting more people in the seats seems like $$ spent on diminishing returns. If Teams spends $40M more on salaries and each fan brings $75 of revenue/game…….they need 533,000 more in attendance than current norm just to break even. Sharing a baseline 60% works for sure & is needed but maybe results (where Team finishes) skews how much of the remaining 40% of MLB revenue the organization gets at end of the year. “Some split” that would incentivize each Team to spend to ultimately better their bottom line.
  16. JD-TWINS
    Overall, very upbeat……….”the game may never recover from it…..” ????? Seriously?
  17. JD-TWINS
    5) My issue with recognizing Rodriguez as an “option” is because EVERY year we could say, “he could have had a decent year if he was healthy……,” His “health issues” are a real problem!! 4) Prielipp’s health has been shakier than Rodriguez. ………team need, his stuff, and the need to control his total innings for another year seems to cement him as a PEN guy in ‘25. Culpepper & Lewis are 2 guys I forgot about for PEN help……….Morris is probably in the mix as well. 2) Goldschmidt is not the answer. To me, spending $4-$5M/ year more for a “known” output makes great sense - logical sense. This is whether a fan or the organization. 180 hits and 25 or less strikeouts for the year make Luis Arraez pretty attractive for $14M/yr. 3) Internal options fill the bulk of PEN needs. D. Williams or Hensley or like for $7.25M seems to be $$ well spent! Coulombe or Thielbar are worth $3.25M to help stabilize. 1) As you state, is a no brainer!
  18. JD-TWINS
    Why? ……… No kidding!! Named Red’s MVP in ‘23 as a Rookie (after McClean got hurt) & has hit 20 HR for 3 straight years and played very well at 1B …….. played some 3B & quite a bit of LF until ‘25. Wishful thinking by fans here just because they know his name, IMO…… I’d love it! Could be done, as their best hitting prospect plays 1B, principally. Reds would want a serious player(arm) …….. Chase Petty seems to have flamed out so they would be very particular. Speer has averaged 21 HR & 85 RBI for 3 years as an MLB player with a .245 BA ……… “infielder hands” on ground balls with great instincts at 1B. Solid player.
  19. JD-TWINS
    OF/DH: Buxton - Wallner - Martin - Larnach - Gonzalez IF: Lewis - Lee - Keiner/Felefa($3M) “type” - Keaschall - Arraez($14M) - Clemens (I live in Cinti, and Steer would be a welcome addition via trade at 1B……instead of Arraez) C: Jeffers - Jackson Starters: SWR - Ryan - Lopez - Bradley - Ober Matthews/Festa - Raya - Prielipp - Thielbar or Coulombe($3.25M) - Funderburk - Adams Sands - Topa … Jansen or D. Williams or similar($7.5M) $95M baseline currently plus $14 - $3 - $3.25 - $7.5M ………$123M total payroll. Can’t imagine NEW investors would not have had the Pohlad’s being OK with this level of spending prior to a $425M infusion. As many have pointed out, it’s all guess work on the spend. Outman (traded oft injured reliever for him) & Roden (Rojas was the primary piece) were flyer additions, IMO. No need to worry about rostering either of them.
  20. JD-TWINS
    Seems right at this point for OF ……….Martin/Larnach - Buxton/Outman - Wallner/Gonzalez(?) …… Roden at AAA (potential, but a throw-in with Rojas!)…… Rodriguez & Jenkins on the come with good work & health through May, in St Paul. Clemens is (#13 guy on roster) to play OF if others were PH for and they come back with RH reliever late. He CAN play 2B if absolutely necessary. He’ll get some PH opportunities and, obviously, he’ll get some play at 1B. Cannot be the everyday guy at 1B on a competitive Team. Gonzalez could make the Team with a nice Spring Training. Gasper - Julien - Kriedler - Fitzgerald seem to all be set for DFA……..Fitzgerald may become back-up SS?
  21. JD-TWINS
    Not personal here, but I don’t understand why many at TD point to Career stats or one year removed stats if it’s someone they like and those stats show a positive BUT if the advantage (or the negative) is looking at only the previous year for the argument, then that’s gospel on the Player. Larnach: Spotty play due to nuisance injuries and mixed (streaky) production prior to ‘24. 2024 - 116 OPS+ with 15 HRs in 400PA’s. Platooned against predominantly RH pitching. He had a .771 OPS 2025 - 99 OPS+ with 17 HR’s in 567 PA’s. Difference for ‘25 is 118 AB’s v. LH pitching. Larnach still had a .727 OPS Continue to just Platoon him! 100 OPS+ is average for MLB hitter OPS in MLB for ‘24 was .711, for ‘25 was .719 I get he doesn’t bring speed & real good defense ……… Team has other OF’s. Not too many hitters. $4M is hardly a prohibitive salary.
  22. JD-TWINS
    I agree, in general. I think the sentiment that’s trying to be made by many, is that almost everyone here at TD forum wish the Bar was much higher than this for a Catcher move for ‘26. Is he better than Pereda? I know this sounds nuts but I’d like to see Pereda or some other acquisition for roster at Catcher. This allows Jeffers to play 1B maybe 100 games and catch maybe 20 games to stay viable behind the plate. PH/DH another 25 games.
  23. JD-TWINS
    They kept LH hitting Clemens - Julien - Gasper - Roden - Outman ahead of him. This should say something! These are baseball people making these decisions - they aren’t oblivious to the concept of development and proper opportunity. Obviously, I too wish him well but am glad that the organization is slowly making needed changes.
  24. JD-TWINS
    I didn’t neglect defense - I said he got Zero WAR from defense (WAR was probably a negative adjustment as DH)………. we all know he’s not fast nor a great defender …….. any DH type - occasional OF, used against RH pitching in a platoon, that made $2M with a .771 OPS, is a win! If he wasn’t used in 118 AB’s v. LH pitching, due to weak roster in ‘25, his OPS would have been .750 plus again, easily. My point is Team doesn’t have many average or better hitters, so until some are ready and producing they don’t need to jettison Larnach at $4M. My other thought is you negated that he can hit just fine v. RH pitching. Platoons are used across MLB and wish thinking more AB’s and opportunities will somehow balance a guy’s production just doesn’t work. In the vast majority of cases, particularly with Left on left, the hitter remains at a disadvantage through their careers. Oliva’s career numbers are .690 v. lefties and .890 v. righties…….as an example.
  25. JD-TWINS
    He’s career .759 OPS v. Right handed pitching. His BEST year was 2024 and his slash line was .259/.338/.434/.771 with a 116 OPS+ ……. Average OPS for MLB was .711 in 2024 (Larnach was 60 points higher) 2024 …… 1.3 WAR with only 400 PA’s …..no defensive contribution in this WAR total They let him get 20+% of his PA’s in 2025 (118 trips) v. LH pitching ………poor move! His OPS dropped to .727 Average OPS for MLB was .719 in 2025 Not sure where the stats you refer to come from?????
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