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JD-TWINS

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  1. JD-TWINS
    Larnach had a good ‘24 …… in ‘25 they let him have about 100 more AB’s v. LH pitching and it ripped up his stats line. He’s a good hitter v. RH pitching. Bring aging Bell on to roster will help Larnach specifically platoon v. RH pitching and this will push his OPS toward .765 and a BA near .260. With 450 AB’s against 90% RH pitching, this will get Larnach to 16-20HR and he’ll contribute as a solid DH and occasional few innings in corner OF spot. I think Bell sees 125 starts at 1B. I agree …….. $3-$4M each on a couple relievers and another $3-$4M on an IKF type at SS or maybe a little more for Castro’s flexibility (potential to bump Clemens off roster) ……..this is the sum of the adds for ‘25.
  2. JD-TWINS
    TWINS fans can only hope Bell blocks as many Eddie Julien opportunities as possible. If Julien is on the Team roster in ‘26 I’ll be shocked! How does Josh Bell or any 1B signing take AB’s away from Luke Keaschall at 2B???? #4 is some extra reason to complain with seemingly no basis since it doesn’t have any specific that it refers to at all. The only reason Bell would DH in front of someone else would be to utilize his ability to switch hit while keeping guys like Wallner & Larnach away from hitting against lefties……I have zero issue with that.
  3. JD-TWINS
    What MLB caliber First Baseman do the TWINS have that is getting his opportunities/innings blocked by the Bell acquisition? Bell has a career 114 OPS+ and his total for ‘25 was 110. Seems he can still be productive - switch hitter helps - he struck out 4 less times. than Clemens with 125 more AB’s. Not an ideal signing but certainly an improvement over present options. Buxton - Keaschall - Lewis - Bell - Larnach - Jeffers - Wallner - Lee - Martin …………still could use some juice with an additional pick-up. Can’t imagine TEAM not just hoping Lewis - Wallner - Lee just play to their average expectations & this no more additions. Castro could be an FA candidate adding depth that’s affordable and adds another switch hitting bat……..IF & OF option with the glove. Would leave $5-$8M for a couple middling FA relievers…………the Coulombe/Thielbar types. At some point one of Gonzalez - Rodriguez - Jenkins could add some needed energy at the plate………really need a young SS to be able to make there way to Big Club sooner than later in ‘26.
  4. JD-TWINS
    I hear ya - the consistent negativity here never wains! They do have a very competitive Rotation with guys that have been in the SHOW or have shown promise at MiLB level. Shifting a guy like Matthews to backend PEN guy or some similar move is a real option. Orze - Sands - Topa - Funderburk are all adequate pieces for a solid PEN…… Raya - Prielipp - Adams - Klein and probably 2-3 other guys I missed can have a real opportunity to add PEN depth/effectiveness. They need a bat and they need 2 relievers from FA. I like Arraez due to the known quantity regarding consistent productivity. If he hits in the 5 spot every day he has minimum of 85 RBI through his 185 plus hits and 30 or less strikeouts……. Acquire WHOEVER, as long as it’s fact based and not “hopeful” acquisition. I’ve been saying since October that the infusion of $425M or more wasn’t charity and that there had to be some expectations for TEAM success/competitiveness in ‘26 attached to the money from investors. I really don’t see any “inside info” coming from Dan Hayes of the Athletic nor anyone at TD. I don’t know why people think the Twins would tell anyone their plans? It’s common sense moves v. Pohlad’s potential reluctance to care about results. This “they may spend up to $110M & is that better than a rebuild?……” Another wild guess total - what if they spend $127M due to right deals coming together? How good could they be if the spread $32M (above the current $95M) over 4 players in FA? Hopeful, but not naive……….anxious to see what Team looks like on March 1st!
  5. JD-TWINS
    I think LaTroy Hawkins will seriously help with mental aspects and approach from the PEN! Orze - Sands - Topa - Adams - Funderburk are all 5th-6th-7th & maybe, occasional 8th inning guys. Add……..Prielipp - Morris - Raya - Mathews (Klein & I guess, Ohl have an outside chance) Personally, I’d add Thielbar & Coulombe for $7-$8M total & figure out the backend with the young guys (Matthews?). With that said, the TEAM still has $15M to spend in free agency. Spend on a depth SS & one of Arraez/O’Hearn/Lowe. Can then look at trades to really add a strength………to me, trading Ryan or Lopez for prospects makes no sense whatsoever.
  6. JD-TWINS
    I don’t follow “player values”, wherever that info can be found but if Julien & Larnach are similarly rated, it’s a bad system. Agreed, Lopez or Ryan for Mayo is laughable. Organization doesn’t need to move effective players for “potential prospects”, particularly a guy that’s hit .201 over 102 games! I’d seriously consider Lopez for Rutschman as the O’s extended the guy behind Rutschman at Catcher & they have Alonso cemented at 1B. Twins take $$ saved on moving Lopez to get another bat (Arraez-O’Hearn) and they could have the best Catcher combo in the game in short term. Still leaves $15M to spend on PEN & SS depth in FA market…………it’s a potential path to consider, but I would really prefer to keep Lopez and spend up to $125M on player salaries while keeping good core players on roster.
  7. JD-TWINS
    Those are all DFA guys that have been kept as “just in case” guys for early ‘26 in case of crashing injuries or a really disappointing off-season from FA. Their spots are placeholders until better options are acquired, IMO. Trade value for any is essentially non-existent. To me, Outman & Gasper have potential to start the year with the organization - that’s it from this group. Rule 5 guys have to stick the whole season with big Club and can’t be optioned - doubt that’s Culpepper’s future in ‘26.
  8. JD-TWINS
    How do we, as fans, know more about who may contribute to the Club in the future than the internal baseball people within the TWINS organization? How far are these guys down the line on the organization’s depth chart? They are player assets and not all can be kept forever or for sentimental sake. I don’t get the angst as it seems to be just a Wild Guess - right? Specifically, who would you exchange off the 40 man and why?
  9. JD-TWINS
    Sure, if those are real, that’s his best move. Obviously, my point is Twins positioning themselves to somehow justify offering Jeffers a QO has to have better alternatives!
  10. JD-TWINS
    If Team (any team) can absorb $23M for a year, seems signing Realmuto for 2 years at $31M would make more sense - trade Jeffers and a young arm (Festa/Morris) somewhere for another player that’s ready now or has been successful in the Show……….same 2 years spend of near $31M for this year’s $6.6 plus next year’s $23M if it’s Jeffers in Arb & QO. …….??
  11. JD-TWINS
    So, I think we agree - “keep”, yes………$23M via QO, not likely in this world.
  12. JD-TWINS
    Your #2 scenario maybe comes true if he hits .300 with 18HR ………or is trending awfully close to those numbers. He’s not a good defensive catcher and probably doesn’t have enough stamina to perform at a decent level if he catches more than 100 games. QO? I get your scenario for ‘27 and the lack of organization’s motivation for signing up to spend money in such an uncertain labor situation! That’s going to be an interesting buzz after Winter Mtgs…….the ‘27 outlook.
  13. JD-TWINS
    No trades unless it’s outside the Top 3 starters and coupled with someone for a REAL bat (Red Sox - Duran type) Lopez/Ryan SWR are Top 3 to me heading into the Winter. This said, Bradley is #5 just because we gotta give it a shot for at least 6 weeks to start season. Abel was brought in as a future starter. Festa & Matthews were both lower picks that have developed. I try Matthews in a back end/Closer role and if Festa’s health allows, he’s at AAA with Abel and potentially a Pen arm by June? Prielipp gets converted to Pen ASAP. Rojas develops at AAA.
  14. JD-TWINS
    It seems that if Jeffers is “probably the top catching free agent in next year’s class”……. he would have pretty fair value at this year’s deadline - right? Anyway, trading the only real/viable catcher currently in the organization for a High A pitcher with a 4.41 ERA and a AA Catcher that’s 25 and not in MLB top 500 prospects (#22 in Philly) is not a great idea. Not sure how the author thinks this may be close to worthwhile?
  15. JD-TWINS
    Or you could spend $33M to have a similar defensive shortstop (declining) and a guy who doesn’t hit at his previous level nor stay healthy………so Lee plays a third of the games anyway, covering for Correa’s back, feet, need for rest, etc. Abel gave up half dozen runs in an inning plus and was sent down then pitched at MlB level again. Roden was playing in the Show and got hurt. Idk what you’re arguing here. Jax, in ‘25, 4.23 ERA …. 1-7 record ……. .5 WAR. He’s got tremendous stuff!! Like many guys on the mound, I wonder about his pitch mix and what’s going on between his ears? He’s got a 4.03 ERA for his stellar career. I like Jax - independent of that, Bradley has thrown 140 innings in the SHOW for 2 consecutive seasons - if he can’t work as a starter, I do think he has an opportunity to match Jax like numbers throwing to 3-5 guys per outing. ……. Jax too washed out as a starter…….same with Varland……..lack of durability was the root, but same for Duran.
  16. JD-TWINS
    Bradley is the only “non-prospect” they got back. (why would others be in MLB last 2 months of ‘25?) He wasn’t good but if he were good in Tampa in ‘25 they wouldn’t have traded him. He’s a relatively young guy with good upside. He has as much chance of contributing to wins going forward as Jax would have had in his role. Didn’t love the trade either but 6 starts are just that, SIX. Thinking getting rid of $23M per year for a guy that’s hurt A LOT, and is obviously declining, makes perfect sense. The trade didn’t suck, Brooks Lee, that’s a different story.
  17. JD-TWINS
    The Varland trade was definitely difficult to understand at the time. Bottom line is it was Rojas for Varland…….a very good prospect, left handed, with a chance to be in the rotation by ‘27. Roden was a throw in sweetener as a flyer, no real expectations. I like Louie and was not in love with the trade. However, Varland was a 16th round (close) draft pick and he’s overachieved. He’s very durable at this point and has great potential as a mid inning/set-up guy! Probably effective but a real ceiling. Not personal here but to all his supporters here at TD, if he was from Kenosha and pitched at Wisconsin Stout I think there would be far less angst. Still a questionable move but not nearly as sensitive.
  18. JD-TWINS
    Stewart has always been an injury waiting to happen - no issue there. No issue with Bader/Castro - Coulombe was a short time signing so no issue. Dobnack & Paddock were not worthy of keeping. Correa move made sense due to his level of health/performance & saved $24M/yr over next 3 years. Jax - Duran - Varland are the guys that stung on differing levels. Bradley, Rojas, Tait, & Abel have the ability to make the sting subside, over time. Sure should’ve some results from pitching options well before the end of ‘27! I don’t see the deadline as some “firesale” since most of the $$ saved revolve around just the Correa move.
  19. JD-TWINS
    To me, Matthews seems to provide the ability to be a Closer……right? Forget that he has potential to be an OK starter and ask, could he be an effective back end guy? We all want every prospect to be the next Blyleven but that happens every 10-15 years. Abel - Rojas - Bradley all seem to be profiled as “starters” to me. Morris - Adams - Matthews - Raya - Prielipp are all guys that should be in the mix for the ‘26 PEN.
  20. JD-TWINS
    Nothing wrong with not struggling early in career, particularly coming back in same season after getting hit and having a broken wrist …….. I do give the nod to Keaschall in the box just due to Martin’s accumulated PA’s prior to his last 181. That said, to me, Martin definitely looked like he had turned the corner last year over last couple months! His demeanor seemed more calm and confident and he got results at the plate. As you state, his OBP was impressive. He should start 115-125 games (as the plan) coming out of Spring Training. Hoping for good health! He can be a real positive.
  21. JD-TWINS
    Gonzalez given a try at 1B going forward v. corner OF? How about shifting Martin to 1B if Gonzalez can’t handle IF? Martin definitely has good infield instincts as a former middle infielder……maybe the best conversion candidate from the OF to 1B? Gotta have better options at 1B than Clemens! Roden hitting .180 over 153 AB’s combining both stints in MLB is not making me warm & fuzzy. He’s got to hit his way on to the club - can’t just give him a slot in the OF. I like Martin - Gonzalez - Buxton - Larnach - Wallner to start the season with most of the changes you suggest by end of July…….would like to keep Buxton though.
  22. JD-TWINS
    My point is that more spending on players to attract more fans, via being competitive with a better roster, is a $$$$ wash or very near to being a wash. Spend $50M to be competitive and draw 600,000 more patrons and the difference in dollars in and dollars out is meager.
  23. JD-TWINS
    The spending from Teams on players to satisfy fans desires and thus getting more people in the seats seems like $$ spent on diminishing returns. If Teams spends $40M more on salaries and each fan brings $75 of revenue/game…….they need 533,000 more in attendance than current norm just to break even. Sharing a baseline 60% works for sure & is needed but maybe results (where Team finishes) skews how much of the remaining 40% of MLB revenue the organization gets at end of the year. “Some split” that would incentivize each Team to spend to ultimately better their bottom line.
  24. JD-TWINS
    Overall, very upbeat……….”the game may never recover from it…..” ????? Seriously?
  25. JD-TWINS
    5) My issue with recognizing Rodriguez as an “option” is because EVERY year we could say, “he could have had a decent year if he was healthy……,” His “health issues” are a real problem!! 4) Prielipp’s health has been shakier than Rodriguez. ………team need, his stuff, and the need to control his total innings for another year seems to cement him as a PEN guy in ‘25. Culpepper & Lewis are 2 guys I forgot about for PEN help……….Morris is probably in the mix as well. 2) Goldschmidt is not the answer. To me, spending $4-$5M/ year more for a “known” output makes great sense - logical sense. This is whether a fan or the organization. 180 hits and 25 or less strikeouts for the year make Luis Arraez pretty attractive for $14M/yr. 3) Internal options fill the bulk of PEN needs. D. Williams or Hensley or like for $7.25M seems to be $$ well spent! Coulombe or Thielbar are worth $3.25M to help stabilize. 1) As you state, is a no brainer!
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