JD-TWINS

Martin .484 OBP ….. Larnach .468 OBP Martin’s splits are almost identical v. LH or RH pitching ………. should figure out a way to get him in the starting line-up 80% of the time and see how that works over the next month. Larnach’s splits are not advantageous (never have been), he should continue to be platooned v. RH pitching in Left - Right - DH. The number of RH pitchers Team faces will steeply rise ……. there are 70-75% RH pitchers - starters v. Twins to date have been an INORDINATE amount of lefties. Bell at 1B 60% of the time - Caratini at 1B 20% of the time …………this leaves a spot for Larnach to DH a bunch v. RH starters ……..allowing Martin to be more of a fixture in LF.

Martin has 14 Walks & Larnach has 13 Walks

Larnach, hopefully, realizes the platoon measures are to optimize his performance when “in” the line-up. It’s working. He’s striking out at a 15% rate and his walk rate is sky high. I don’t really understand the angst over him “not swinging enough”? Repeatedly stating he “whiffs often” doesn’t seem to jive with the 15% K rate. I haven’t seen anyone say Martin & his walk rate are due to him “not swinging enough”. A .265 BA & .468 OBP (which is elevated in a small sample size) is all positive & it is the intention of the Platoon………..Martin’s similar success is due to the irregular amount of LH starters the Team has seen so far in ‘26 - he is getting positive results due to the Platoon……..I ASSUMED THIS WAS THE CASE….. it turns out Martin is hitting .250 BA v. LH pitching with a .250 Slug%. Versus RH pitching he’s got a .375 BA & a .875 Slug%. Sure seems he’s showing signs he should be playing nearly every day! Larnach’s splits, very early in the season, are .292 BA v. RH pitching and .167 BA v. LH pitching. Seems clear how to use him effectively.

Looks like, to me, with Lewis being activated today ………….(26 guys with only 12 pitchers on Active Roster)…….. when either Funderburk comes back or Prielipp is added later this week, either Outman or Wallner is displaced. Should be Outman. Do not think they’ll move Kriedler back with his versatility……..ability to play CF. Clemens is a candidate but he’s become part of the Team & the vibe, so while competitive they won’t DFA him first………. and he’s still part of the 1B mix defensively.

I cannot imagine that one could not go to every one of the 30 Teams & find 1, if not 2, OF that one would prefer to have over Matt Wallner. I think the Twins have 4-5 guys that I’d rather have.

Continuing to let him look like a fool, while striking out at a 42% rate seems every bit as irrational. His “success” was in ‘23 & ‘24 and in both instances he was sent back to St Paul to work on himself. In ‘24, he went down on April 16th and came back & WAS successful from July forward. Why is this such a terrible idea for a guy with options? What is Wallner’s status in the game amongst Outfielders since the beginning of ‘25? That’s 474 PA’s. Also, Eddie Julien had a nice 2023 as well.

My point to Cory was that I would certainly DFA Outman, or Option Wallner before I would displace Larnach. I was questioning why he seemed to blend them together, at this point. Larnach, v. RH pitching is a .775 OPS guy at this point …….maybe 110 OPS+. (15 HR’s) He won’t continue to walk at his current rate but he seems better against the one side, OBP from current .468 down to probable .360 ……… BA of .260. Strikeout rate will increase from 15% to something in the low 20’s………..basically, a decent value for a platoon in LF occasionally & principally, a DH …….. for $4.5M/yr. I don’t understand the general fandom angst.

How can you defend a guy that MOST here have said, “deserves more AB’s v. LH pitching” and he does nothing (in any season) to show this makes sense. I’m not saying that he is being used to his strengths ….. not really clear on what they may be at this point? Paralleling your point, if Matt Wallner hits 2HR and only strikes out 3 times in the next series, most here would laud his “coming along”, yet it would only be performance over 3 games ………. just like Roden & Emma in their latest series. Neither of those guys will bring negative WAR to the outfield - at a minimum. EVERYONE wants Wallner to be successful. His M.O., in his 2 successful seasons of ‘23 & ‘24, was time spent in St Paul to work things out and get his mind/approach right. He doesn’t have to be banished from the Team but he needs to get it together for a few weeks. Larnach is hitting to a level of what is his norm, v. RH pitching. Last year he was “exposed” v. LH pitching as he was the guy “allowed to face LH” …….118 AB’s v. LH pitching (approaching 25% of AB’s) and he sucked against them & it pulled his overall numbers into “why would Team tender him?” range. Larnach’s current K rate is 15% & Wallner’s is 42%. Wallner, formerly an OBP guy is currently at .272 & Larnach is at .468. Granted, Larnach will probably drop to .360 (K @ 22%) …….remove Wallner’s LH pitcher AB’s and he’s hitting .211 with a .302 OBP (K @ 38% for season). WALLNER has a Slug% of .333 - this is his biggest Red Flag, in the short term, to me. Bringing up WAR at this point seems odd…… Wallner at -.700 & Larnach at .300, 22 games in, 13.6% of season. Larnach projects to 2.2 WAR and Wallner projects to -5.15 WAR. Obviously, this could (probably will) shift but the glaring difference is my point. Wallner’s splits aren’t the ONLY reason to look at someone different. OUTMAN is brutal ….. his 2 hits came in one game. Maybe he’ll get on a roll……..can’t imagine how anyone might actually believe this will happen. I am not a “let’s promote” because I’m bored or curious or “xyz deserves a chance” guy. Players should force their way on to the roster with performance. Sometimes, players force their way off the roster due to performance. I’d like the Team represent themselves as best they can with both near term & long term blended into the decisions…….Outman and (current version) Wallner don’t fit that in my view.

I appreciate the thought of wanting change, but trading Wallner for anything of value is a storyline off Fantasy Island …… Larnach has value to the Twins & would bring value to another contender for “some” return.

Wallner has 34 AB’s v. LH pitching, I agree - too many for him, and his BA is .147 Wallner has 38 AB’s v. RH pitching, and I would say that’s enough for him, and his BA is .211 Wallner has a -.700 WAR & Larnach has a .300 WAR through 22 games (while Larnach’s use has been “shielding” him) I would take limited use of Larnach and a 2.5 WAR for the season! Rodriguez & Roden should both be elevated to the SHOW, displacing Outman & Wallner. Rodriguez for a DFA’d Outman & then a few days later, Roden for an Optioned Wallner (assuming his production doesn’t elevate profoundly).

Gotta ask, replace Larnach while keeping Outman & Wallner? ……..seems there is probably a specific order on who should be replaced. ……. -.300 WAR ….. -.700WAR ….. .300WAR respectively.

I have no problem (would prefer Culpepper actually at 2B & Houston at SS) ……… guys deserve to be deemed mentally ready for the step to MLB - everyone’s different……… I gotta rely on the organization to know when that “readiness” has arrived, decision not made on my fandom ………..my “short-term” is to ACT now regarding Lee’s defense while allowing Culpepper another 2-6 weeks to feel ready. If he’s ready Wednesday - let’s go!

Am a little surprised Wallner hasn’t been designated to the IL as of this morning after missing yesterday (scratched) with discomfort in his ribs after getting hit in the ribs a few days earlier. He’s still leading League in K’s with 34 & his WAR is tumbling, now at -.700. ……… Outman, after 2 hits has his WAR up to -.300. Due to his EFFORTS and flashes of nice play, Keaschall has been going unscathed here. Have lots of faith in him BUT his defense is blah and his offense, right now, is also really Blah. He may need an extra day off or a re-set in St Paul (sacrilege, I know) in another week? Keaschall has an OBP of .258 and only Outman (-13) has a lower OPS+ on the Club.

Assuming that they will start Prielipp one of the 3 games in New York. Since there was a day off Thursday & today, SWR is full rest (plus a day) on Tuesday ……… probably Prielipp Wednesday, with Ryan Thursday, after 5 days rest? Pitchers get hurt - just a bummer for Abel & Team on the timing after a couple nice outings! I thought the move with the two lefties was more of a “form” decision. Looks very likely both will pitch in the next 2-3 days.

Matthews was an 8th round pick and Festa was a 13th round pick. Either of them contributing at the MLB level would be a presumed bonus by the organization. Either, or both of them may be in the PEN by June or sooner. I agree that Prielipp & Rojas can get somewhat acclimated to the Show throughout the season with spot stints in the PEN ……..certainly doesn’t ruin them for future stater roles. It is difficult to see some combination of all 4 of those guys in relief roles as the viable starter depth at AAA (bean5302’s point) would be extremely thin. 2027: If Ryan isn’t traded (part of Tom’s “competitive plan”) & Lopez is back …………. Abel & Bradley are back with health…….. either Ober (seems to be steadying into a #4/#5 slot) or SWR completes the rotation. …… not worried about NEEDING Prielipp or Rojas ready for Big Club Rotation spring if ‘27…….. there may be room for an FA starter after Labor Agreement is settled?

They have today off which gives the other 7 guys a day of rest ……… can’t imagine Funderburk is not back by Friday. Rojas might see an inning or maybe 2 batters, just to give him a taste. Prielipp isn’t even on the roster - he may very well start this weekend for Saints. Don’t see this as any sort of gutting of the AAA rotation. It does send a bit of a message to these two guys that they may actually be called in if Team is in the mix going forward. Somebody will be coming up to replace 2-3 of the current PEN guys at some point (varying timing) Klein - Raya - Matthews - Prielipp ………. whoever - it’s going to happen - I don’t pay enough attention to know who’s at the head of the line in St. Paul - probably fluid week to week. Anybody know what’s up with Festa’s recovery?

It’s short term for sure - need Houston’s glove there but not sure they (or any team would push that hard w/him) ………….do we not think these two are better defenders at SS? At least Kriedler? I see Prielipp & Rojas are being brought up for a look ………. maybe the youth will start to flow more aggressively and Culpepper is at SS by Cinco de Mayo?

Lee passed the back-up SS test and the “he’s OK at 3rd or 2B if needed test”. We had CORREA! They drafted Culpepper & Houston in first round the last 2 years - so do not think Lee was the long-term answer. Lee has options - Keaschall has options - Wallner has option…………Keaschall may need to go to LF with Martin & Larnach platoon in RF ……….. maybe Keaschall and Lee alternate at 2B? Something needs to happen to improve defense in the middle of the infield. Since Lee has an OPS+ approaching 100………. he should maybe go to 2B and let Gray & Kriedler platoon at SS …….. all once Lewis is back.

He has options - I’m thinking I.L. after today and then at least a couple - ten week re-set. 🤞🤞🤞

Were leading A.L. in run differential (17) going into the series. Starters gave up 4 Earned over 18 plus innings - UNDER 2,00 ERA from those 3 starters. Cannot lose all 3 games! Day off last Thursday and another one tomorrow. Can’t pull together enough good innings the past two days from PEN to hold leads - pretty disappointing. Knew PEN was going to be an issue - knew defense was going to lack at numerous spots - knew the offense was probably going to be suspect………….maybe just need to assume they can’t be good, only OK once in a while…….not sure yet?

He’s pitched in relief TWICE. So, unless your last name is Nostradamus it may be too soon to give up on him. He had good stuff in the 9th - not throwing strikes early enough in counts to a couple hitters really hurt him! I thought after the two hits to right he should have been removed just due to his lack of command. Most here at TD have been clamoring for more velocity from someone in the PEN not. ore “spin”. Results vary with good pitchers and with guys that have mediocre stuff. I think he needs more of a chance to acclimate himself to this new role………probably a month or two in reality………particularly if he’s used in “long situations” once a week or 3 times every couple weeks. Needs to get a feel!

So did Tom Glavine & Greg Maddux for more than a decade - close enough for the knucklehead Reds batters to not challenge.

Culpepper & Gonzalez are RH hitters. No need to trade for “RH hitters” ………. BETTER HITTERS, regardless of which side is certainly of interest!! The “game” hasn’t completely flipped in 2026……..there are still between 70-75% RH pitchers. Twins have seen an INORDINATE amount of LH starters to this point in ‘26. Just beat Skubal - Valdez - Crochet within 7 days last week. Buxton - Martin - Keaschall - Jeffers - Kriedler(Lewis) are 5 RH bats…… Larnach - Wallner - Clemens - Outman - Gray are 5 LH bats…… 3 guys are Switch hitters. Symmetry. Now, replacing Outman - Clemens - Wallner with other options would be great news to my ears.

So, I realize the ball wasn’t intended to land in the middle of the Zone (nobody’s perfect) - but it’s not Funderburk’s intention to hit the guy either. My point is Taj shouldn’t be “all praise” and PEN guys be “all blame”. It was a piss poor 0-2 pitch! In a parallel, (not trying to pick a battle here) but I do not understand how so many are upset, frustrated, or unsympathetic to the Front Office (regardless of who is in charge) when ownership has essentially abandoned them. $155-$160M in ‘23 on payroll & in ‘26 the spend is $105M……….$10M to Correa & $22M to Lopez ………. this has the Team operating in 2026 with a spend of $73M for the guys on the field. I realize other Teams have injured guys as well but I really can’t imagine anyone else is fielding a Team of 26 guys for under $73M. There was no “plan” to become a frugal (Guardians - Pirates - Tampa - Cincinnati) spending Club. Without a plan do this or operate this way, the FO looks like they are clueless in some situations. An organization can’t change their approach, successfully, in 4 months nor 18 months …….. it’s a long-term philosophy. The problem with the Club, IMO, is a deficiency on some reasonable spending to be able to have a Pen with an ERA of 4.00 or less (v. 4.50) and a position player roster w/o Outman - Clemens. It’s only $25M range in sum. Expectations, as you accurately state, can’t be that “these guys need to or will, fix themselves” but rather, this is what is there to work with - particularly with Lopez not pitching an inning. Gotta get used to things not going well. GOOD baseball teams lose or have disappointments 45% of the time so it’s inherent to the sport in many ways.

Bradley looked solid for the most part ………very encouraging! The guys have to continue to put runs on board when opportunity is right in front of them. Critical maybe, but Taj cannot give up an RBI single with two outs & an 0-2 count on the batter. I live in Cincinnati and Stephenson has numerous holes in his approach at the plate………Bradley, again up 0-2 in count, throws a middle of the plate - thigh high breaking ball that got ripped. Mistakes happen but in this situation they really shouldn’t. My point here is the PEN guys are not the only ones making mistakes that cost Team runs they shouldn’t be giving up.