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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    If “Baseball People” really think Wallner has 40 HR potential - he’s from Forrest Lake - he makes the minimum - doesn’t seem to make sense to trade……. regardless of who is in the Minor League system. I do not love Wallner - great flashes of potential to date but little signs of being consistently productive. Sent down for long stints in ‘23 & ‘24 to work on his offensive approach and then hurt 40% or so of ‘25. He may still have an option and this could be helpful with the qty. of left handed OF candidates Team currently has on 40 man. Honestly, I don’t see teams giving up “a lot” for Matt. IF Twins could get immediate 26 man value they can’t ignore the possibility that maybe they should move on for both sides. benefit?
  2. JD-TWINS
    Equally demoralizing would be to move guys up and watch them struggle and get bad habits trying to get to some sense of mediocre at the MLB level because they aren’t ready. It’s like benching the 6th grader that plays right field to move up the 4th grader because 6th grader has plateaued and everyone knows it and they are bored watching him. Great way to break the younger player if not ready. Getting an opportunity and being overmatched is not a path to success. BASEBALL people are evaluating these guys not people/fans at their computers. Outman has some sliver of upside and can be moved in early May just as easily as now. Kriedler hasn’t shown any offensive potential - I do not understand him ahead of Gray if defense is even close.
  3. JD-TWINS
    Sure thing! Really hope he’s ready in ‘27 ……… Culpepper & Lee to complete the middle infield trio. Keaschall to 1B.
  4. JD-TWINS
    This is not specifically on topic but it does relate to player affordability and the logic of an extension in the near-term. Do people/fans here actually think that with Baseball at its current wave of positivity relative to $$$$, there will be an extended work stoppage in ‘27? The issues, IMO, are not so much between the Players Union and the Owners but rather within the Owners. I realize that collusion isn’t an option but if the Teams that spend 2.5-4.0 times as much don’t have any competent competition, the game will lose National interest. I think that’s logical. All those around the table throughout ‘26 must see this. This may seem naive, but I don’t see the owners shutting down their current shine with the masses of the game’s fans by locking players out and not playing baseball.
  5. JD-TWINS
    The payroll for ‘26 is 2/3 of what it was in ‘23. How does that make any sense? Lopez is 20% of the Team’s ridiculously low total of $105M in ‘26. Going forward who eats up all the salary $$? If the Twins can’t afford Pablo with the salaries that surround him now and into ‘27 & ‘28, the owners need to complete a sale of the Club!
  6. JD-TWINS
    There’s all kinds of things that “could have been done” ………he’s a great Clubhouse guy and, when healthy, a Top 10-15 starter in the A.L. Seems extending him makes perfect sense in case the Team gets to actually be closer to “competitive” AND it also gives them a trade chip, with control, at a reasonable price for those who might want him going forward. There’s always risk in an extension - is it worthwhile?
  7. JD-TWINS
    Was Liam Hendricks “missing in action” when he had elbow surgery or cancer? I get Topa isn’t Mariano Rivera but he had physical problems in ‘24 like essentially EVERY pitcher experiences (Lopez/Ryan/Festa/etc.). The evaluation here is on top of what was a season of him meeting expectations in ‘25. Not great, but got what they paid for and met expectations. The fact that there’s a discussion of anyone’s performances through March 2nd other than human interest is silly. Sure, some are “encouraging” and some guys still seem to be inconsistent or underachieving. It’s Spring Training …….80% of it is left to take place. If he’s still struggling March 20th, they may consider displacing him, but it’s doubtful, given the risk that any of his potential replacements would bring.
  8. JD-TWINS
    Larnach will DH v. RH pitching in 90 of his 115 starts (assuming health). 83 games as DH in ‘25. If Martin stays healthy and Clemens earns a spot, they’ll be in LF a bunch!
  9. JD-TWINS
    If guys can play - young or old or in between, they will find a spot on a Roster if not with the Twins, somewhere that needs a contributor. The continual second guessing of signing veterans on short deals is old …….. they are a bridge to young talent. If guys don’t pan out …….. i.e. Lee - Lewis - Wallner this year, and guys like Rodriguez & Culpepper are hurt or not ready, the FO will try to find bridges to keep the Club respectable in the meantime. Nobody is getting blocked by Solano or France or Bader or Rogers………Team needs to fill roster spots with guys that may be helpful. Can’t beg for 3 months for Veteran relievers to help in ‘26 so young guys can continue their journey as starters and then bitch when guys like Rogers/Hendricks/Chafin are brought in to provide a short-term bridge. I don’t understand the logic anyway.
  10. JD-TWINS
    Agree, Festa as a starter was far fetched. Littell for 2 years, to me, stabilizes things. It allows Lopez to not hurry for ‘27 ……. it allows possible trade of Ryan if someone offers a nice ransom at the deadline or in the coming offseason. Little threw 186 innings in ‘25. His ERA for career is 3.88 and Pablo’s is 3.81. They get results with different level of stuff but he’s a VETERAN that is pretty solid. Maybe have to spend $9.5M for a year or maybe two years for $17M? I assume he’s been negotiating with more than a couple clubs to date. I understand excitement with youth at ALL spots but I also like to have a chance to win and Littell gives us that until young guys are ready.
  11. JD-TWINS
    I don’t think it’s a criticism of the choices written about, it’s a criticism of the Pitching Staff……IMO.
  12. JD-TWINS
    MLB at bats for this trio is 136 (all Roden with a .191 BA) while Larnach has 1461 AB’s and a .241 BA ……… 25 points higher exclusively against RH pitching. I think that’s called logic. He certainly can be forced off of the Roster but FO’s need guys to force people off the Roster not give guys a spot and HOPE. And you’re right 6-12 AB’s for these guys does not a true debut make ………. need to see where these 3 are at March 20th. They need to face MLB vets and produce. Fingers crossed - would love to see Roden & Gonzalez excel!
  13. JD-TWINS
    The .692 OPS assumes no strong side as a Pinch Hitter……..Not familiar with his numbers but often there’s a strong side with switch hitters. Larnach is barely average OPS v. all pitching he’s seen, but he’s around .765 v. RH pitching. I think it’s a reasonable idea to keep guys fresh through May/June until some OF hits his way on to the Big Club. Clemens - Larnach - Martin - Wallner - Outman - Buxton Lewis - Lee - Keaschall - Bell 3 Catchers ……..13 guys. No back-up IF in this scenario …… doesn’t work! ……..looks like 2 Catchers and either Kriedler or Grey……….with Lewis and Lee and their propensity to be nicked up, Team will need 2 depth IF sooner than later. Outman, because Roden has options and somebody other than Martin needs to be able to spell Buxton. Not trading Larnach so Jackson can get in the line-up.
  14. JD-TWINS
    Larnach is the DH v. RH pitching……..starts in LF or RF 20 games through the year. Martin is a lock as well as Caratini! Wallner - Buxton - Clemens ……… Lewis - Lee - Keaschall - Bell - Jeffers Back up SS and another OF candidate ……. don’t think anyone knows who these two will be for another 3-4 weeks of baseball in FLA.
  15. JD-TWINS
    Sign Zack Littell for 2 years at $8.5M/year. Need innings and consistency! Can free up the opportunity to actually consider trading Ryan at the deadline if things aren’t going as well as hoped. If youth blooms through the year, Littell or another Vet could be traded in the off-season. Ryan🤞- Ober - SWR - Bradley - Abel/Matthews …………could use somebody else with experience!!
  16. JD-TWINS
    I do not see how/why Clemens has somehow become some sort of anchor on the Twin’s Roster in so many minds? To me, the only reason is because he’s a familiar name. He was picked up after being released and makes the minimum. He’s not some great find or diamond in the rough that Team should covet. He had some big moments last season, granted. 3 HR’s in one game! To me, that type of production, his successes, are going to come to many many marginal players, given playing time. He had 19 HR’s in a limited number of AB’s….. that’s notable. His overall numbers are not MLB sustainable. To me, he’s the 13th guy on the roster for position players. He certainly should not be the everyday first baseman v. RH pitching on any team seeking to be competitive. He is, to me, a back-up in LF, RF, 2B & 1B. Value there for sure! If he’s not “in the line-up” daily there is no real loss to the offense nor player development. IMO, Larnach starts 25 games in LF or RF through the year v. RH pitching. He is the DH for 90 games v. RH pitching. It seems the root of your questions #1 & #2 is do I think Larnach is a more positive effect in the line-up v. Clemens - right? I’d take Larnach for sure! If Rodriguez or Gonzalez or whoever forces their way on to the Roster ……… Clemens is expendable OR Roden gets sent down OR Outman is DFA’d OR some neons got hurt. If somebody forces their way on to the Roster, somebody probably isn’t performing on the big club. Potentially, if there is a deal to be made, Larnach gets traded late in July to a Team in need.
  17. JD-TWINS
    $4.4M …….. CHEAP for nearly every other Team in baseball. Known quantity v RH pitching v. “potential” or “promise” guys. Eventually, one of the young guys will prove they are ready but guys don’t just get inserted in MlB because writers think they’ll be good at some point. He’s a DH, IMO. Strictly v. RH pitching. Am not worried about his defense.
  18. JD-TWINS
    ………AND if better talent, sought after by a dozen other Clubs!
  19. JD-TWINS
    If Outman should be out of the mix based upon recent 2 years of ugly OPS……….there is absolutely zero reason to think that Kriedler would be chosen with a career sub .400 OPS! Maybe be he hits .450 this Spring? If not, he has no chance.
  20. JD-TWINS
    Larnach will make $4.48M in ‘26. Larnach is the DH and Clemons/Martin ……… maybe Roden will play LF & RF, along with Wallner. Outman may get chosen instead of Roden? Martin, to me, is waaay ahead of Clemens when it comes to being “a lock”! Starting IF with Bell at 1B - almost exclusively, Larnach at DH (v. righties) - 2 Catchers (1 of them may be DH v. lefties?) - Martin, Clemens, Buxton, Wallner in OF. Roden or Outman or Rodriguez based upon Spring Training. Gray, at 29, seems to be stable and with .638 OPS (in a small sampling) seems to be the best option to start with as the depth IF guy ……… still can use Clemens in infield as well.
  21. JD-TWINS
    I agree - he’s got more than just Buxton - Keaschall - Martin to work with but those 3 (Roden-Outman-Kriedler) have to be on the roster and more difficult, they have to get on base, increases velocity order to steal bases.
  22. JD-TWINS
    They have a handful of 15-20 SB guys along with Keaschall at 30+ and Buxton at 25+. Can’t run these latter two guys into injury …………risk/reward comes into play relative to health.
  23. JD-TWINS
    That doesn’t happen…..22HR and 41 total XBH with a whopping 40 RBI …….damn near impossible to pull off. The definition of “not clutch”! To me, he and Lee consistently battled for biggest disappointment!!
  24. JD-TWINS
    “….moving all these young starters” is way more than needs to be done to help the PEN be competitive. Raya is making the move. They need maybe one or probably two more of the “starters” to make a shift. Festa is probably the next most logical due to arm health issues……… that leaves, IMO, Morris or Matthews or Prielipp. Prielipp has “potential” for a higher ceiling and they have 3-5 lefthanders in or near the PEN now…….it’s probably not him. Klein is in the mix for ‘26 PEN. Morris and Matthews are essentially clones …..low walk rates in the Minors, increased velocity that touches 98 once in a while, 6 pitch mix with only the slider/sweeper as the real Plus pitch. One of them needs to lose 2-3 pitches and move into the backend of the ‘26 PEN………if the Team cares about competing and not just going through the motions. Cole Sands can’t routinely be looked on to close games……..a blend of 2/3 guys including Sands once in a while……OK.
  25. JD-TWINS
    Festa’s ERA v. 3-5 guys at a time has a chance to be much, much better than his ERA trying to throw 4-6 innings per outing. Prielipp is obviously a question mark - also though, potentially respectable in short bursts of 14-22 pitches per outing.
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