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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    Not sure if you agree or disagree with the previous statements? I personally don’t see the rotation as having unanswered questions. Certainly agree though that SS and back end of bullpen are serious areas of concern in February!
  2. JD-TWINS
    Kind of a silly comparative point since they traded 10 people off the 26 man roster with 33% of the games left - right? I doubt that was part of the PECOTA formula. If the FO thought 84 wins would ultimately be competitive in ‘25 they probably would not have made the moves made?
  3. JD-TWINS
    Festa & Matthews “could be effective starters” but the reality is Matthew’s performance history does not denote that he will be effective starting! Festa’s health/arm issues do not denote that he will be effective starting! NOBODY thought Varland “should be given up on as a starter”, ………”give him another shot in rotation….”. All 3 of these guys are lower draft picks that worked themselves into the mix - commendable for them & the organization. Varland is NOW “the reliever we shouldn’t have traded”……after 4 months in that roll with the Twins. Matthews at a minimum, & probably Festa as well, should be in the PEN (backend) by Opening Day.
  4. JD-TWINS
    You make an interesting point about 4 years of control (140 innings/yr) traded for 2 years of control (75 innings/yr)………that is not only opposed to Tampa’s thinking, it’s against nearly every other organization’s thinking, if not in “built to win now” mode. Could be Taj is a head case with a very straight fastball and Rays had the opportunity to get some value? Pitch mix …….. if he throws more curves and splitters, his fastball will have more effectiveness w/o a doubt. Easier said than done, but it appears his “sinker” should generally displace his 4 seam and he bumps his curve up to 25-30% of his offerings - he could throw 4-seam 10-15% of the time and surprise guys with it in the zone. I get it’s not video game baseball but somehow getting him more mentally engaged and interested in getting his pitch mix refined, to promote effectiveness - that’s key to him reaching his ceiling. If Bailey Ober can make his 90-91Mph fastball effective via pitch mix and location, there’s hope for Taj!
  5. JD-TWINS
    No offense but how about he pitches 15-20 innings before he gets ANY attention. Discussing his physical therapy and his throwing results “on the side” are very empty to me. I’ve seen Matt in the mix here literally for years and he never actually pitches before getting hurt again. Sorry, I just don’t need to hear more “lofty potential results” from a guy that cannot stay healthy more than a month at a time. He makes Brock Stewart seem durable.
  6. JD-TWINS
    The TOP 2 guys still need to be identified from my perspective. Sands - Funderburk - Topa - Rogers - Orze are all very reasonable guys found in bullpens across the game for 5th - 6th - 7th & occasionally spilling into the 8th innings, depending on workload of the back end guys………..potentially, none of them makes it through the year w/o some minor injury. Klein - Adams - Raya - Lewis can be added to this mix of 5 guys as depth…….maybe one can be the “6th guy” in the mix? Matthews - Prielipp - Festa - Morris need to fill the back end void. I’m not a talent expert, but it sure seems that nobody left on the FA market has better talent than these guys - just experience, with just as much risk of mediocre results. Trading for a guy that would actually be an “upgrade” just doesn’t seem likely as all other 31 Teams need reliable arms as well.
  7. JD-TWINS
    In what world does Ryan Jeffers get a HUGE return? He’s a slightly below average defender and above average at the plate, for a Catcher. He’s under control for ‘26 only. Not sure how that works into TWINS getting real benefit? I guess maybe you were saying J Ryan as a single trade piece? Jeffers and Ryan ……. sure…….. for Duran and a solid reliever or young arm from Boston…….just a thought. Trades are mostly abstract thoughts from the Fan’s perspective with no real idea of what may be possible or considered, IMO. i.e. …… The Polanco trade got Team DeSclafani - Topa - some low level pitcher & GONZALEZ. Topa has been better than letting Jorge just walk - Gonzalez looks, today, like he could be in the OF mix for next few years. Jeffers “could” bring that type of return but I don’t think this mix of guys is of any interest to Team v. selling Jeffers at the deadline with a Team in the mix & with a real/desperate need. The Team’s payroll is currently so low that I don’t see value in not keeping Ryan in ‘26 & potentially to at least the deadline in ‘27, and paying him.
  8. JD-TWINS
    His OBP is solid BETWEEN being sent down to AAA to try and not strike out 2 AB’s per game.
  9. JD-TWINS
    2.7 WAR “average” for Wallner is about as misleading as a stat could be…….. his 4 year real numbers are -.3 ……2.2 …….2.2 …….. .6. Twisting those 4 totals into an average of 2.7 WAR per year is creative “over 162 games”. The bad news is he’s hit so poorly in at least 2 of those seasons that he was sent AAA for big chunks of each summer. This past year he didn’t hit & he was hurt.,,,, 18 - 76 - 75 - 104 are the total games played per year in MLB over the past 4 seasons. Projecting numbers over 162 games per year is fictitious.
  10. JD-TWINS
    Is Matthews, with his pedigree and level of success over ‘24 & ‘25 at MLB, a better bet than Taj Bradley? How does he stack up with Abel’s stuff and probable capabilities ……& age? I get he’s a sentimental favorite but ESSENTIALLY EVERYONE here thought Varland should continue to get endless shots at being a starter as well. It’s time for Zebby to move to the PEN & trim his 6 pitch offering to 3-4 that work.
  11. JD-TWINS
    I get it, but a Team (staff) needs 5 starters with 2-3 alternatives in a typical rotation for a season…….while they need 8 relievers and 3-4 alternatives in the PEN for a typical season. Plenty of room for guys not in the first 3 rounds to be developed into real assets!
  12. JD-TWINS
    Bell & Larnach are not Stars but they are at a different level than Lee & certainly Roden! Wallner & Lewis have already had exceptional seasons …….. they need to repeat something “approaching” those seasons. Even if they are 5% above League average it will be an uptick. Buxton - Keaschall - Jeffers - Caratini - Martin play to their capabilities……..not All-star level but at or slightly above expectations. If these meager goals are generally achieved - with rotation health……..they’ll be in the mix in the Central.
  13. JD-TWINS
    His ERA in ‘24 was 6.69 so he wasn’t getting the ball past too many guys on the corners………..his “control” in the minors was fantastic if the BAR is just not walking guys …… he overpowered MiLB hitters. His command in the zone has been lacking at the MLB level. Probably wasn’t any better in MiLB. The ERA went down 1.1 runs in ‘25 to, a not MLB sustainable, 5.56. At 26, my opinion is that he is what he is (he obviously can evolve & improve) & he’s trying to master SIX pitches which is a very lofty pursuit! Trim to 3-4 pitches and “contribute effectively” from the PEN v. just filling a void for innings in the rotation as has been the case over the past 2 years. Duran - Jax - Stewart - Varland all have better stuff and were squarely in the Twin’s PEN - no disgrace in doing what you’re good at or being allowed to succeed in a new role.
  14. JD-TWINS
    - being demonstrative usually comes with/after successful results on a personal or team level (that comes first)………..Pete Rose was an anomaly in the 60’s & 70’s, not the norm ……..they aren’t circus performers. - Keaschall seems to be about as energetic and fun loving as they come, to the eye. Buxton too, as you mentioned. I think Martin brings an energy as well. (Bader & Vazquez last year). - being passionate looks good to the fan but it doesn’t create talent nor hard hit balls nor good defense - effort & talent get results, IMO, not waving your arms around or throwing bats or whatever “entertainment pieces” show passion. - from my viewpoint, Jorge Polanco couldn’t be any more quiet and laidback verbally and physically……..other than quiet desire to win/succeed I don’t “see passion” watching him play
  15. JD-TWINS
    The stats are a pretty big slap in the face, IMO, for those who insist he’s a real talent and needs to remain a starter for sure. I don’t have a crystal ball to gauge how he may or may not improve. He’s going to be 26 in 2026 ….. he was a low round draft pick and a great story in ‘24’s meteoric rise. That said: It seems he should eliminate his Sinker - Cutter - Curveball, based on the metrics shown above on OPS and focus on 3 pitches to use at a higher effectiveness rate from the back end of the PEN. With 1 inning stints he can throw his 4 seamer 96-98, which with proper location, will be effective. The slider needs to be the pitch he throws 50% of the time. The change-up as a waste pitch in & off the plate to righties about twice a week for show and then as a more effective offering to lefties he’ll face. The focus with 3 pitches would hopefully help him refine location skills and help him relax with far fewer pitches to master…………maybe he keeps the curve as a second “show pitch” and throws it 4-5% of the time. Theorizing the change-up is 15% with the Slider at 50% and Fastball at 30+%. I think he’s an 8th-9th inning guy as he gains experience and gets comfortable in a new role. 6 pitches with only one of real positive effectiveness doesn’t get me excited for him to be a rotation guy!
  16. JD-TWINS
    “Could be” the next Brock Stewart - maybe?
  17. JD-TWINS
    His BA against with runners on base was like .368. To me, it seems pretty obvious he had a physical problem. When you pitch just fine out of the Windup and can’t get guys out from the Stretch, it’s physical. If the same guy is throwing 91.5 or 89 mph and he gets guys out from the Windup routinely. The loss in velocity isn’t good but something physical is causing the drop off. If that gets fixed, whatever “that” is, I’m not worried about Ober going out and giving the Team a real chance in 4 of every 5 starts.
  18. JD-TWINS
    Because Caratini is a switch hitter that is a better hitter than Clemens. Jackson may be in the 26 man to allow Caratini to DH as well as Jeffers. Clemens is really a reach as the 13th guy on a decent club.
  19. JD-TWINS
    Not in love with Outman either. …. Don’t really see much more in Roden than in Kiersey - both can play OF, both can run, and both hit at AAA. St. Paul isn’t the SHOW. Outman, in years 2 & 3, is the same mediocre performer as Eddie Julien……I think, with better physical talent. There were a number of people at TD that held out hope that the organization would give Eddie an opportunity. They didn’t and that makes me happy………with Outman, I’m more neutral. Either way, if he starts the season on the 26 man, he can be DFA’d with a simple stroke of the pen or by pressing SEND on the keyboard. If he’s on the roster, he has NO extended runway!
  20. JD-TWINS
    Festa will be 26 this year - Prielipp will be 25 this year - Matthews will be 26 this year. Festa & Prielipp have had injury issues and could use further inning monitoring in 2026. Much easier to control innings AND utilize benefit of the guy’s talents from the PEN, IMO. Matthews could potentially thrive in cutting back his repertoire to 2-3 pitches and shifting to a high leverage role in the PEN. Raya will be 23 and has more time. Opportunities in the Show via the PEN don’t eliminate any chance of starting in the long term.
  21. JD-TWINS
    Does anyone think Tom P. is going to push for a couple more FA signings to make “everything OK” going into the season. I think he wants to be the hero! Can’t do that just by making some phone calls and pushing Falvey out the door. My take from the article is that every word said about Festa could be applied to Prielipp. Rojas is a 2027 guy IMO & out of the picture until at least September. That said, “to be competitive” I’d stack Festa - Prielipp - Matthews all in the PEN if deemed necessary in Spring Training. It may take until early May to get one of them accustomed to a new role/regimen but ALL of them want to be in the Show and not in St. Paul, so I think they’re motivated to make it work. IMO.
  22. JD-TWINS
    To me, #4 is squarely on the OWNERSHIP. Can’t approve this deal and then sign Lopez to his extension ($56M total) just prior to cutting payroll steadily from $155M in ‘23 to $105M in ‘26. The flimsy basket is squarely on the ownership’s desire to cut payroll in a big way with ZERO prior warning nor plan. Nobody (FO) can navigate through that to build a strong roster.
  23. JD-TWINS
    Yep - to me, Vazquez was a great move and he turned out to be a real good guy and solid receiver but the .270 BA prior to the Twins almost seems like it had to be some deep fake on his stats that fooled everyone in the Twin’s FO and Twin’s fandom. Hard to believe the depths his offense fell to over the 3 seasons.
  24. JD-TWINS
    YES - can’t only give this a thumbs up …………. #1 Picks not producing at League Average to 15-20% better than league average is THE problem with the current roster. Wallner - Lee - Lewis ………. 1/3 of every day line-up. Larnach isn’t a flashy success story but he’s not a problem. The other 3 guys above have shown flashes of their Talent but they have been a real consistency problem. Martin, an obtained #1 pick, is similar to Larnach. If Lewis can’t be above average - if Wallner can’t be average - if Lee can’t approach average, team can’t succeed in ‘26. Nobody needs to be an All-star but they can’t be BAD! ………………. I live in Cincinnati and the Twins sure could use the consistency that Spencer Steer brings (lost in Mahle trade) every day at 2-3 positions.
  25. JD-TWINS
    From the Current 40 Man Roster: 11 of 19 pitchers are 22-25 yrs old. 4 of the other 8 are veteran relievers (not unusual) and they skew the average age Keaschall - Lee - Lewis are 22, 24, & 26 9 of 10 outfielders are 21-28 (many at 27/28, granted). Jenkins isn’t listed yet. Still seems that most of the Roster and the guys that will play regularly are fairly youthful. Bell - Buxton - Caratini are the only position players over 30.
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