JD-TWINS

He lead the National League in hits the last two years with 200 & 181 respectively……gotta say that I don’t see those as “TWO DOWN YEARS” ……… he made $14M in ‘25. I may be wrong but my assumption is somebody might think he’ll negotiate for more $$ going forward. His OPS wasn’t fantastic but he did play 154 games …….. 144 - 147 -150 games per season from ‘22-‘24 ……… he’s not fast but his knees seem to be holding up just fine………not really knowing the guys value and stats and not thinking the organization should consider plugging him into middle of current line-up doesn’t make sense.🙄 Clemens hit .205 for most of his last 3 months - that constitutes a “down year” and that was his best year. The team needs offense & Arraez can provide a positive - Clemens just takes up space.

There is no argument - just pointing out the reasonable actions of the FO. Again, Duran - Jax - Varland trades can be short sighted and not in Team’s best interests in future (not huge $$ moves)……….the other 8 guys all made sense in any organization.

I left Correa out because moving his salary off the Team for his ‘25 output, & feet issues in ‘23 & ‘24, and prospects going forward, it makes complete sense. He is not sustainable on any payroll (for his performance) at $35M/yr. Certainly a money move for the future - but a good move, not a “fire sale” ……..I agreed that Duran & Jax were moved because they didn’t want to pay them $8-$9M total in ‘26, relative to the younger arms brought back in trade………Varland & Stewart’s contracts are at League minimum so fire sale hardly applies to them…. - right?

Naylor - 28……..50 XBH in ‘25 …… 160 hits O’Hearn - 31…….39 XBH in ‘25 …… 133 hits Arraez - 28……..42 XBH in ‘25 ………181 hits Somewhat affected by AB totals. Naylor is 3-4 years and most $$ ($19-$20M)….. O’Hearn is older and may only get 2 years ($13-$14M) ……. Arraez had 181 hits in a “down year” for him - I take that going forward and offer him 3 years ($15M) I bat Lewis 4th and Arraez behind him 150 games/year.

I don’t understand the depression & overstating “the fire sale”. Who in any FO, wouldn’t have moved Bader-Castro-Dobnack-Paddack-France ($21M x .33 saved) with starting pitching down with injuries & record at couple games under .500????? Those moves were smart! None of these guys would have been back (maybe Bader?). Castro/Bader cost $14M combined in ‘25. An everyday player/offensive contributor, I think, they will pay $16M/yr. in ‘26. The move of Jax & Duran, in theory, got them more starter upside and more years of control. Yes, saved approximately $8-$9M salary in ‘26. Varland move had nothing to do with $$$ whether one likes the trade or not. Stewart was moving a guy who is a constant injury risk for a flyer on an OF bat with decent speed, again, no $$ involved. My impression is that payroll would currently be $95M with existing roster. IMO, the infusion of investment doesn’t happen without an expectation to be competitive (spending reasonably) to get interest stirred and give new investors a reasonable opportunity for ROI.

I don’t know how to trade for worthwhile bats/position players? Nobody is trading an effective starting position player, with control. If they will trade, they make as much or more than a potential FA signing. IMO, paying $46M for Arraez over 3 years is a smart deal. 170-190 hits/yr in the 5th spot in the line-up every day sounds great. He’s a competent 1B and can shift back & forth to DH seamlessly w/o issue of team wants to groom another guy at 1B. His face is next to “Consistent bat” in baseball dictionary. He knows capability of Rotation guys…….,he knows Buxton/Lewis/Jeffers etc……..Keaschall is an obvious talent……..he seems to be a guy that would buy into a near-term, competitive level team. I try to sign Hoskins as well - it’s obvious he’s declined from his best 3 plus seasons ago (injuries have become real). An offer for 2 years at $27M could be reasonable to him. He’s brings defense at 1B - a RH bat with OK pop - can rotate through DH spot as well. Buxton - Keaschall/Houston - Larnach/Jenkins - Lewis - Arraez - Jeffers - Gonzalez/Wallner - Lee/Culpepper The FA’s above stabilized line-up and cost $29M. ……..spend another $11M on PEN…….. total payroll is $135M…. that’s 2022 spending!! With Rodriguez - Jenkins - Gonzalez coming, maybe tendering Larnach & trading him with a young pitcher Nets a PEN veteran?

Yep……. Great stats at AA do not drop into 26-man roster spot. From other comments here it doesn’t sound like he’s fantastic in the OF. See if he can stick defensively at 1B as “options” there are needed. If he continues to hit at AAA and he can adapt to 1B……maybe he’s around in July? Shifting to broad strokes………Aren’t the “upcoming OF spots” essentially taken by Gonzalez - Jenkins - Rodriguez for the foreseeable future? I’d love to see Gonzalez working at 1B as the RH option for Big Club sooner than later.

Not bad thoughts. Guys gotta want to do the job. Neither needs $$ nor headaches. Morneau seems to live a pretty comfortable existence just doing 40-50% of the games broadcast. Not sure Nelson wants the grind and responsibility/headaches? IMO, he probably does not have great interest. Competitors like to compete and that’s a big draw for both guys!!

OldNurse couldn’t more right. Not just you, but the seeming majority here think that the Manager of a club is supposed to individually instruct each player on basic skills. That’s not real…….wasn’t real for Connie Mack - not real for Ralph Houck - not real for Mike Schildt. Managers set a tone - they suggest a path for their coaches to take with players & yes, are ultimately responsible. Managers emphasize things to the group & position coaches, instructors, & players are responsible for individual improvement………do we think Justin Morneau was looking to Ron Gardenhire for help in the batting cage? I quit playing baseball at age 13 but knew how to go to second base on my base hit if the OF threw behind me or missed the cut-off, by the age of 10. I knew how to bunt……,proper form, what not to do, etc. These baseball skills are not high level thought!!! There are many players now that haven’t had basics jammed down their throat like I did in early 70’s - different world. Many uber talented players get by on talent and their lack of basic knowledge/competence isn’t exposed and hasn’t mattered much in their “development years”. Bottom line is guys have played baseball for 12-17 years before getting to MLB. Their Manager, at this level, shouldn’t be expected to individually teach guys how to play……. what is being done/taught in high school - Legion Ball - travel teams & 2-4 years of Minor Leagues???? I’m not suggesting zero input nor communication individually but there isn’t going to be instruction going on between Managers & their players. Mental help/direction/support/criticism, as needed, and leading by example are Manager’s role.

Joe Madden may be the Pioneer of analytics so be careful what you wish for……..he’s 71 and living life in retirement. He does a 10 minute segment once a week with Brian Kenney on MLB Network and fishes. Jimmy Leland is 80. These two aren’t practical candidates and Tito isn’t going to a new job …….. particularly one that has a more screwed up ownership group than here in Cincinnati! His buddy that’s assisting him in Red’s dugout won’t leave Terry’s side. I can’t imagine hiring anyone out of the group that worked there under Rocco. Gardenhire hasn’t shown any real skills other than personality, that I know of at a distance. There has to be an assistant in Boston or Houston or Detroit or San Diego or Philly, etc. that fits the bill. It really depends upon the wish list Falvey has for his ideal candidate.

It’s not a popularity contest……WINNING gets people energized not a big smile nor what Twin City neighborhood someone is from …… WINS! ……fundamentals, effort, class, more hard work & Wins.

He was brought in to Texas a year ago as a special advisor a year after bailing on the inept Marlins……….can’t see him going anywhere but Texas…….he’s the best candidate brought up here for sure.

Put the pipe down…….3 guys that are essentially all committed AND too expensive OR a guy that quit Managing 2 decades ago. How about Harvey the imaginary rabbit?

Martin “seems” to have evolved into a probable contributor (he looks to be playing with a maturity)……..Keaschall’s success after breaking his forearm & being down 3 plus months, that’s very encouraging. I agree with your comments on the guys that haven’t blossomed - in contrast to Julien, Outman was #3 in N.L. ROY in ‘23…….not washed yet, but a completely different organization in the Dodgers …. they couldn’t seem to fix him either & gave up.

I understand your point but to be clear, SF traded Wade Jr. in June for “player to be named later” and they had to pick up a chunk of his annual $5M salary in order for Angels to take him……he had modest success prior.

They won a playoff series in ‘23 with same Manager & GM. They were on the rise. Agreed?? Payroll went from $124M - $134M - $154M from ‘21 - ‘23. Agreed? Lopez salary increases in ‘24 per contract & CC was set to make $35M. OWNERSHIP CUTS PAYROLL from $154M down to $129M in ‘24. Agreed? (16.5%) ……pretty tough to add to the ‘23 core under these circumstances!! Based on previous trend with Ownership over 3 years, the FO’s expectation for budget planning in ‘23 wasn’t “…….we’ll probably cut payroll total next year by 16.5%”. Agreed? Can’t run a sports franchise nor an IT company nor a manufacturing company if Management doesn’t have a view for spending expectations from Ownership out 2-5 years…….at least a general feel. Can’t decimate the budget for labor/talent and then, after the fact, have analysts compare the company’s results to competitors that have historically spent less in your industry. Agreed? Has Falvey & regime been great? - maybe not. Was Baldelli a perfect Manager? - no. ………Should OWNERSHIP DECISIONS be blamed for 75% + (IMO) of the decline over the past 2 seasons? - certainly! Injuries and players not playing to just average/norm expectations have been (IMO) 20% of Team’s issues. Those two percentages added doesn’t leave a lot of blame to go around for FO & Field Mgmt.

Stewart - Coulombe - Cruz - Santana - Correa - France - Bader….. all thought of in 15 seconds of no research…….FA’s that delivered. No FO “consistently wins one sided trades”….that’s silly. Your depth of knowledge and expectations is weak, IMO. Payroll: $124M in ‘21 - $134M in ‘22 - $154M in ‘23 (playoff series win) - Correa had been signed to big $$ contract and Ownership cuts payroll to $129M in ‘24 & Lopez contract kicked up in $$ (2 guys made-up 41% of player spend) - $131M in ‘25. The “hope” is that the Organization can spend $125M in ‘26 with some in press thinking it may not be $100M……….my point is without the forward knowledge on spending cuts and no knowledge of them until the commitment was made on Correa, how does Falvey operate? He’s not a magician! Nobody signs a guy to pay him $35M and then cuts payroll total by $35 at the same time!!! Other Teams succeed with low payrolls - sure - but the President/GM have knowledge of spending expectations from ownership before CUTS are made. Correa’s $35M was 27% of the total spend in ‘24………. the player spend budget from ‘23 to ‘24 was reduced by 16.5%………both of these are kind of difficult to plan around with no knowledge spending was going to be slashed!!!!! Keep the guys now on roster and give Falvey $40M to spend (back to 2022 spending) - do it by mid-October & Team will be back in the playoffs in ‘26.

The players quit hitting from mid-August on …… can’t Nanage your way out of that. How’d the Mets hit this past weekend?

If Miranda spends the entire year at AAA & sucks after having a 12 game, historic hit streak last July, it seems to me that’s the failure of a 3rd year guy. Julien, essentially the same thing. Wallner hits .275 for a month and then hits .195 for 2.5 months…….the other 2 months are on IL or in St Paul for past 3 years. IMO, guys have to look in the mirror and figure it out. Listen to Plouffe describe how Morneau spent hours and hours in the cage nearly daily …..,,. 2 time batting champ & MVP. Work ethic & grinding season after season is how guys maintain and improve……..along with coaching/instruction. Coaches don’t have a magic wand……if they did, nearly all prospects would make it to the Show & be successful. Keaschall - Larnach - Wallner - Julien - Miranda all have access from same group of guys. Popkins was clueless at end of ‘24 and now he’s the one of the best instructors/coaches in the game as “he’s turned Toronto around” …..,, nobody is saying that. Springer - Guerrero - Bichette and others are all hitting well (at a high level) Kirk as well, 4 guys at .300 or better with 3 more above .265………players play!

Do we think Dave Roberts doesn’t lean on analytics - nor the other 28 teams in MLB? Get ready for more of the same from whoever takes over - it’s the new reality and has been and there ain’t no going back. Roberts is successful because they have outstanding players. Do people here really think they know baseball better than Rocco and his staff. Do they think he wouldn’t win in 2/3 of the Clubhouses in the playoffs?? 3-4 teams are in on smoke and mirrors and a couple got a lot of help from mediocre to terrible competitors down the stretch. Managers can matter, for sure! But they don’t win 85-95 games w/o good players - that perform to their norm levels!!!

The MANAGER doesn’t “develop young players” ……… I live in Cincinnati and Francona isn’t/hasn’t developed anyone here. They send guys up & down continually to find “somebody” to contribute. Outside of DeLaCruz (about 38 & half of last year) they don’t steal bases. They do have 3-4 guys that can actually bunt - developed well before they arrived at MLB level. ……….”systems” and handfuls of coaches develop talent through the minors. Guys don’t “develop” at the MLB level other than mental fortitude and physical toughness to handle the grind. Sure, they improve but they had to already be successful to get up through 3-4 levels in MiLB over 2-4 years. Managers build a team culture and try to establish an attitude he wants players to take on, in general I don’t disagree that a fresh voice from the Manager won’t be a positive going forward …., I don’t believe much of the Twin’s issues over the past 2 years were heavily Baldelli’s issue…. players play & his were hurt or mediocre in many cases! Skip Schumacher is going to get paid by someone.

Yes, change is good! Lee - Clemens - Roden ….. are all degrees of changes to make. Guys below them should be gone……Miranda - Julien - Fitzgerald - Gasper ….,……etc. etc. How about Jeffers at 1B (Catch once a week) and Perada & FA at catcher? ……. Vazquez for $4M? Anyone else worthwhile in FA market behind the plate? PEN help & 1 proven BAT are needed!!

Low Bar isn’t the approach to take……. .202 over last 300 AB’s, even with a dozen HR’s ……. he’s barely the 13th guy to start the year, IMO……essentially the same spot he had with the Phillies last Spring.

Agree, he looks like a 48 year old playing in a 25 year old body - lack of strength and quickness is glaring!! He’s a good depth guy around the dirt but I sure would like to see him not in the starting line-up more than 3 days/week. His Dad being a College Coach and Brook’s level of baseball acumen has been overshadowed by his lack of success at the plate. He could & is probably close to emerging into a 20 HR guy but his lack of hard hit balls outside of that stat is way too low!

IMO, they are committed to Rojas from Toronto and Roden was as much of a flyer as Outman. Can he hit???? …..doubt they hang on to both he & Outman for more than a couple months as it seems higher upside youth will be pushing. No clue on options available for either? Gonzalez & not far behind, Jenkins in May - June eat up a couple OF spots. I’m HOPEFUL that one of their last 3 #1 picks at SS can actually be ready by later May as well. Not sure on Fitzgerald’s options? Lawyerson has been close enough to keep…… Ohl seems to be on the fringe of enough stuff to be consistently effective, IMO…….less confident in him than even Tonkin.