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JD-TWINS

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  1. JD-TWINS
    >.500 opponent data is interesting…….I do recall that we had a couple games snatched from us v. Orioles to finish 2-4 on the year. Swept by Braves…..slowed their role but still lost all 3. Not sure but I think we got swept in 3 by Tampa. So 3 opponents/4 series and we’re 2-10………v. 3 of best 4 or 5 teams in the game. Seems we didn’t do that poorly against the rest of Baseball (above & below .500) if we’re 13 games over .500 in remaining contests. Our pitching is more credible than most teams, however, our 2 most logical opponents (with 25% of season left) Toronto & Seattle both have very good starters and depth. I think I’d rather see Toronto pitching & Seattle bats. Great to have the games in Minneapolis!! I see Lopez, Gray, & Maeda as our starters with Ober in the Wings. Ryan & Varland are both built to let it fly for an inning with fastballs in relief. Those 2 plus 6 core guys from Pen should allow us 14 bats to work with in October. Duran - Jax - Thielbar - Pagan - Balazovic - Floro - Varland - Ryan seems like a very credible bullpen.
  2. JD-TWINS
    Didn’t check the list…….Alex Kirilloff & Donovan Solano……..total cost $4.5M.
  3. JD-TWINS
    I’m worried what Jeffers may be in October of ‘23 if all of a sudden he’s catching 5 days per week. Not concerned about 2030. Organization may have some concerns about 3-4 years out but that’s not the topic. Jeffers bat in ‘23 & how it may help is the topic. Yadi caught all the time because of his defensive abilities and his handling of the staff……not because he might hit some HR’s. We want Jeffers to play more for his bat and if he catches 50% more down the stretch than he has been, in my opinion, he may not hit as well which would be diminishing returns.
  4. JD-TWINS
    Seems he’s on pace for same or maybe a couple less innings than last year……..higher leverage this year as a rule. His problem is he’s throwing too many pitches per inning! Mental fatigue, maybe, but he isn’t physically overworked.
  5. JD-TWINS
    He seems to be a real Team guy. If the Option is picked up, regardless of playing time guarantees, don’t now how he could be disappointed? He’s played in 48 of 122 games this year. I like Polanco & if healthy I’d libby for him to be the guy!! ’24: Lewis - CC - Julien - Kirilloff ……. Jeffers/Vázquez ………..Buxton Wallner - Castro - Kepler……. Solano - Farmer - (Taylor/Martin/Gordon/Lee - RH Free Agent OF??) Don’t see a need nor a spot for Polanco…….could drop Farmer but we NEED availability!!!
  6. JD-TWINS
    He was hurt last year & has played 48 of 122 games this year. Farmer has played 88 games & got hit in the face to force him to miss around 25. Defensive stat shown here at TD 3-4 days ago regarding 2B defense for a Julien comparison, had Polanco at -2 whatever’s….., Julien at -1 …….Farmer at +1. The availability is the big issue & risk. I don’t see Kepler crumbling over next month the way he’s going right now……..I think they pick his option & that locks Kirilloff out of the grass & on to the dirt!
  7. JD-TWINS
    Completely agree!! With Duran, his Splinker is nearly impossible to hit at 98-100. His fastball, if elevated or just moved in or out is very difficult to square up. His “best pitch” according to the Team is his curveball. I see the nasty break but I also see it’s the easiest of the 3 to catch up with and to slap somewhere. I think if he threw his fastball 60% of the time (v. 46%) - splitter 23% of the time - curve 17% of the time (generalities) …….the curve and splitter appear more devastating with their movement. I get the fastball may be more taxing but I think he’d be more effective and throw 80% as many total pitches. Locating his fastball 4-6” up out of the zone is something he needs work on - currently his “show” high fastball is often a foot high…..just leads to more pitches. His out pitch should be a fastball an inch or 3” in or out OR fastball up 3-4”. Now he’s 0-2 & throwing curves over the plate to guys that are in protection mode - not effective! It’s the same approach Gray has taken over past 3 starts - off the plate sliders are starting in the zone now not spiking 2 in dirt every other at bat 58ft from mound - those waste pitches are worthless. He’s recognized & cut back & now throwing less total pitches per inning.
  8. JD-TWINS
    Agreed - just taking a “practical” look from Twins standpoint. They could afford to take a big swing…………probably a different FA & we could win more games with, more than ‘23, and it would kick up attendance as winning usually does. Get a $22M - $26M guy into the line-up & drop him in the middle of our anticipated order. OR we just wait for Lee & figure out how to mesh him & Julien & Lewis into the every day line-up.
  9. JD-TWINS
    $24M from additional tickets is pretty reasonable. I’d add another $8M, net, on concessions. Payroll saved from ‘23 could be in the $40M range pretty easily…….as we’ll need to keep some veterans around the youth movement. Maeda seems to be an obvious re-sign. I’m thinking another $5/ticket on the existing 1.8 million fans drawn in ‘23 - estimation of total……$9M to the total. 24 + 8 + 40 + 9 = $81M/year ….,,Ohtani is responsible for $41M according to the logic above…….we throw in another $14M and he gets $55M/year for 6 years - maybe 7? Our total payroll only increases approximately $15M/year. Seems affordable. NOT MOVING TO MINNEAPOLIS though! . …………………. Julien - Lewis - Wallner - Ohtani - Kirilloff - CC - Kepler - Jeffers - Buxton (Wallner would see lots of good pitches) Vazquez - Castro - Solano - Farmer ……………………. Lee up at the deadline Buxton has to play OF or we need to trade & eat 50% of his contract……no real choice.
  10. JD-TWINS
    The organization’s inflexibility is granted & not appreciated by me either! 130 games is too many to me. Realmuto is a unicorn. Guys like Molina are the typical “catcher” profile and theoretically is what organizations are trying to guard against. Lost power & can’t run at all after 9-10 years. See Vazquez. I get they weren’t burners to start but they appear really beat up. Hoping for a heavy dose of Jeffers through October!
  11. JD-TWINS
    Good news is Festa/Raya are 3-4 or 4-5 or 5-6 on a bunch of lists, nearly all lists! Encouraging. Glad there is still some others that see potential in Headrick going forward.
  12. JD-TWINS
    Catching 4-5 games over 6-7 day series is a piece of cake for Jeffers ………..no argument………for a couple weeks……i.e. Playoffs. The debate was about physical/mental fatigue doing it throughout 162 games. The game is a grind for left fielders in August let alone a catcher playing the bulk of the time. They signed a guy for $30M and have been waiting for him to come around. Probably too long! Vazquez is hitting around .260 past few weeks. Still inferior to Jeffers for sure. Organization likes the results they are getting between the pair and seems they aren’t going to vary the routine this season. Next Spring, hopefully, the target for total games is well above 100.
  13. JD-TWINS
    Going for a lead runner, then a bit of power: Eddie Mathews - Ernie Banks - Rod Carew - Harmon Killebrew are my infield favorites.
  14. JD-TWINS
    Thought Jax would right himself & then his worst outing pops up. Bummer! Henriquez - Ortega - Funderburk are all worth looks………not sure if Ortega has regressed? Seems he had like a 3-1 good to bad outing ratio with Twins?……,we’ve proven over & over nobody is perfect. Funderburk is intriguing due to his look/delivery and being a leftie.
  15. JD-TWINS
    What do you or I know about the demands of catching in the major leagues? All opinions. 4-5 games per week average is 50% more than what he’s been doing. It’s not all physical - it’s wear & tear of being responsible for every pitch. You don’t think that playing 50% more may affect how he feels, then how he hits? We’re going to win the Division and if we don’t it’s not going to be because Jeffers didn’t start 5 or 6 more games from here to Oct. 1. The most important factor is to have him fresh to catch 3-4 games in a row in October as needed. Can Jeffers catch 23 or more out of 40 games left - sure. Is the change worth a change in routine - change with his offense? Only reason to catch more is so he hits more & effectively. Regarding next year, he catches 65% of games (105 total) if he goes into the year with the mindset that he’s the guy that’s got the majority of the job. Nothing like what’s been represented to him nor put into practice for ‘23. In ‘24, Team wouldn’t wait until April 3 to tell him he’s going to catch 2 of every 3 games. IMO, managing guys heads and keeping their heads clear on their roles ahead of time is as big as the physical rest………should be discussing his bigger role in playoffs in a couple more weeks. In the end a player’s confidence and ability to stay composed is what makes things go.
  16. JD-TWINS
    Also, if we want to not go from a guy catching 40% of the first 1/3 of the season, to then going 50% of the time, to then 60-70% of the time and changing his stamina to hit well, let’s ease into more time behind the plate. His BAT is why we want him to catch more. Do not want to get diminishing returns at the plate from playing more than he’s used to, too quickly. Completely agree that if managed correctly, he should be able to catch 110-115 games next year. At least target those numbers from start of the season.
  17. JD-TWINS
    I get you like Jorge. Me too. Switch hitter with pop & a good glove…..career .270 BA. He’s injury prone over a minimum of last 2 years. Played a bunch on a bad ankle another year. Again, played 47 games of 121 games this year. Letting go of both is interesting but that adds a lot of pressure to the young guys for not a lot of financial gain. Love Nick Gordon but he’s a really big risk at the plate after his last 3 months……deserves a chance, probably in CF & LF? Another LH bat on top of Julien. Need a RH bat, on paper, to play off of Julien. Polanco is a lesser hitter from right side, or a draw at best with Farmer. They are both getting paid in ‘23………the $10M saved in ‘24 is to spend “on pitching”, not a $10M pitcher. The clear delineation that Farmer is a platoon guy in the mix with Julien at 2B may have things shake out better going forward. With Polanco & Julien on the roster & with Lee coming for somebody’s spot, could get sticky. Gallo - Gray - Mahle - Polanco (potentially a piece) - Taylor - Maeda $55 - $60M total saved from ‘23 to apply toward pitching or other needs in ‘24. Assuming they act on Kepler. I think Castro as depth piece (switch hitter - base stealer - position flexibility) is a better value than Polanco at this point. Farmer & Castro for less than Polanco’s salary. Available.
  18. JD-TWINS
    Looked a couple days ago & he went from previous number down into mid twenties by percentage on K’s in St. Paul. Realistically, he did K 3 times around the granny last night. After 104 AB’s he projects “conservatively”, with 550 AB’s in a full season, to a .235 hitter with nearly 100RBI - around 100 runs scored - mid 30’s K % - 40 HR - .850 plus OPS. Great arm. Nice player!
  19. JD-TWINS
    It doesn’t connect to Wallner - thought I was commenting on how Polanco fits, from DocBauer’s thought. Farmer at $5M? “under team control for an established number”……….RH bat ………..& Julien at $700K……LH bat ……& Castro from either side for depth. Polanco, at 29, has played 47 games as an “everyday player” after 121……..Farmer has played 87 games as a “utility guy.” They are both hitting .240…….,,don’t have the spilts but I assume Farmer is at least comparable from right side of the plate. Polanco has 100 points advantage in OPS in ‘23. Farmer availability, along with Julien seems to be a good fit for ‘24. Polanco’s $10M from this year’s budget to apply to pitching in ‘24.
  20. JD-TWINS
    Gotta think with Lee pushing into the infield by middle of ‘24……,the fact that Farmer is signed for ‘24………..the need to get Julien on the field………….Castro being the speed catalyst for the club………all this adds up to a bunch of guys at 2B & letting Jorge go after ‘23, IMO. Saving approximately $10M as well.
  21. JD-TWINS
    Absolutely! Ober is our 3rd/4th starter along with Maeda……..probably depending upon match-ups/history v. opponent. Lopez & Gray are out front. Ryan’s a guy that can come in and not have to worry about going for more than 5-6 batters ……with the strikeout profile…….high fastball for out pitch, he’s ideal for this role! I think Kuechel could be a guy to bring in and get outs with lefties coming up……an inning in a game or two. Match-ups with Kuechel are key. Gotta see some success between now & end of September though - he may be DFA’d in 12 days? Varland, same deal as Ryan. Can leave it all out there with short stints …….5-6 guys at a time. He needs a clean inning to work - no traffic when entering. He can be emotional and a little loose with command.
  22. JD-TWINS
    Agree with the Lewis above Lee comments because he’s done it over a couple stints in MLB. Really though, who cares how they are listed, which is 2 or 6? What matters is, are they going to be a solid pro. Duran - check ……Lewis - Check …….Julien - check……Wallner - check……Kirilloff - check Lee - gotta believe yes……that’s a core of 6 guys. Varland - Martin have a great shot with a little more time……..75% chance. Martin may be for another team? Happy to hear Woods-Richardson is only 22……he has all of ‘24 & maybe some of ‘25 until we should expect him to help. That’s a lot more seasoning and a way to master command. Miranda……IMO needs to go somewhere else. Unless he’s really been hampered by his shoulder injury (possible) due to hiding injury (see Larnach or Ryan) I think he’s washed. Does not seem to have any pop with normal contact……..he’s somewhat positionless not a great contact guy………..he can’t squeeze into our infield plans which seems to be his only path. Martin - Miranda - Larnach are potential trade pieces to me for pitching. Lewis to outfield - Rodriguez coming after Kepler - Wallner is there too. ‘24 - ‘25 & forward.
  23. JD-TWINS
    No - he’s catching & hitting well when playing 50% - 60% of the time. We don’t need him at first with Gallo - Solano - Farmer & apparently Vazquez (who looked sharp at 1B) …….he needs to rest on his off catching days so he’s fresh in 45 days. He can DH a handful of times over last 41 games to get him to the plate a bit more. We face RH starters 75%+ ………Gallo is there until Kirilloff returns. Solano will be fine once or twice a week.
  24. JD-TWINS
    I’m a big Luis fan so looked at it pretty hard at the time. Luzardo was the guy I was enamored with (young/lefty) - Lopez had some shoulder stuff and he wasn’t going to be under control for long………both are pitching well……..ups & downs. Lopez has turned out to be solid once he’s settled in after the contract extension. No complaints!! Another 4 years plus to look forward to with Twins. Great to see Luis getting notoriety nationally - glad he’s playing really well!
  25. JD-TWINS
    If you believe the stat gurus here at TD, Polanco is -2 at 2B………Julien is -1 at 2B ……….Farmer is +1 at 2B. Thus, Farmer starts at 2B against LH pitching and Julien starts at 2B against RH pitching. Polanco is becoming expendable. If Kirilloff is healthy, I think Polanco is gone or should be. This assumes Castro is on roster and healthy. Gallo’s flexibility on D, while Kirilloff IS hurt, has him going nowhere. Solano had 3 hits Sunday - should be able to play first by now after being off since Sunday afternoon. He & Gallo have first covered until Kirilloff is ready to go.
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