JD-TWINS

I’d like to see Miranda gone but his value is at an all time low after ‘23. He has potential but playing hurt really messed up his numbers and perception. We’re good at 3B & if Kirilloff is healthy, we’re good at 1B. IMO, Miranda doesn’t fit. Larnach should get another look in Spring Training but he’ll be challenged to make Big Club. Trading him with a cluster of other guys should be on the table. I live in Cincinnati & understand the allure of the two young pitching prospects they have - the issue is the Twins can’t trade Jeffers w/o somebody coming up & ready from the organization. The other issue is the Reds carried 3 catchers this year and one was nearly rookie of the year 3 seasons ago - he’s DH often on off days…….Stephenson is solid and a core piece of this Reds Club. The ultimate “trade high” guy (with risk!) would be Eddie Julien. Hitter - high OBP - with Pop. The bad news is we have a #1 pick coming sometime next year to play his position - Brooks Lee. In the meantime (if he were to be traded) our options are Farmer - Polanco - Castro - Gordon. I don’t know you could get proper value back for Julien - don’t like trading good offense - too hard to hit a baseball.

What would that potential be? Youth? Castro plays 5 defensive positions at average or better……..he switch hits……….he steals bases at a high level. hit .255 in ‘23. Farmer plays 3 positions better than average & has a proven track record vs. LH pitching. Hoping for the best for Jose but don’t see him playing in Minneapolis again in a TWINS uniform

Can’t imagine the organization holds any value in keeping Stevenson on 40 man. He’s got good speed and had playoff experience so he made sense in ‘23 for expanded roster & playoffs, with other guys being hurt. Can’t hit at high enough level. He’s gone. Similar profile for Luplow. IMO, Balazovic is in our 8 man Pen when Spring Training breaks at end of March. Needs experience - can’t let him get pilfered!! Interesting looks at the roster issues by the author - well done!!!

Already have a crowd at 2B with Lee at AAA. Castro - Gordon - Farmer - Julien - Polanco Julien’s a possibility to help get back to Kirilloff by June. IMO, Miranda is lower on my list for a comeback than Buxton. I re-sign Solano for $3.5M and expect him to be my RH hitting 1B for at least 3 plus months. Farmer also can be used at 1B as needed……particularly if he’s groomed to be there more, while in Spring Training.

Larnach seems as extreme as we can go but maybe worth a shot. Julien & Solano to start the year makes sense. Kirilloff by June. Sign Polanco & potentially trade in July if Julien is hitting & Lee seems ready. Miranda, IMO, has about a 10% chance to play for us again. To me, Kirilloff is our 1B going forward ……assuming health. We have OF covered with athletic OF’s.

Didn’t forget CC - my comments were about guys in the “logjam” of an infield that could be traded or not started. He’s a fixture and there’s no reason for conjecture at SS, other than depth. Brooks Lee is going to start at 2B at some point. Kirilloff doesn’t enter the conversation since he’s left handed and not going to play anywhere but 1B in infield. The Lee v. Julien issue is the elephant in the room. To get down to that, Polanco needs to be out of the picture, IMO. Therefore, moving Jorge from the picture via FA or extend & trade is what I see as our path forward.

For 140 years players tried to hit a ball to the right side on the ground to advance a runner from 2B to 3B with less than two outs. With a guy on first (particularly with new rules) starting a runner with no outs and trying to advance a guy into scoring position with a ground ball is an aggressive play to try & get runs. No matter how much I like or you like Wallner, rationalizing strikeouts doesn’t make sense to me. I know CC hit into an infinite number of double plays in ‘23 but he also lead the team in RBI - runners don’t score or move on a K. If Wallner hit 6 less homers over a season and cut his K rate by 6-8% my assumption is that’s a good thing.

Most HR’s in the AL in ‘23. I agree though - XBH does not denote a need for high K %. Home run hitters have notoriously high K % historically but some of them also hit .300 a bunch of times with 35 doubles. Rationalizing striking out at an extreme rate because a hitter has a high slug% is just that, a rationalization for underperforming or better stated, having a bad habit or flawed approach.

Farmer - Polanco - Castro - Gordon - Julien - Lee………all capable of playing 2B. Farmer - Castro - Lee……….all capable of playing SS Polanco - Farmer - Castro……….all capable of playing 3B There’s a strong possibility that Julien plays every day at 2B v. RH pitching. Polanco played 104 games in ‘22 & hit .235 - he played 80 games this year & hit .255. He’s a career .270 hitter. It seems other clubs would have access to the information that shows a distinct decline in output & availability. If I’m a GM & discussing Polanco with the Twins it’s also pretty easy to see the clogged roster spots in the infield…….seems to be a clear bargaining chip. I’m taking the less cost player with best defense as my utility guy in the infield - guy v. LH pitching at 2B. Farmer. Castro is going to be on the roster and available at all 3 spots as well. We can sign & trade Polanco, as I stated, with the probable caveat that another player will need to be included to get reasonable return. We could also not take any financial risk and do him a favor and let him be a FA.

Q - Veteran decisions: This is a BIG deal! Not only a bit of potential financial relief but a much bigger deal from a clubhouse perspective. Does the Team re-sign or “execute option” & possibly work a trade? With Polanco’s health issues, & our infield depth coming up, I straight up let him walk & thank him for his service by letting him be a FA……….other option would be to sign & couple him with someone in a trade for an NL prospect. Don’t need him in the AL. For the $10.5M & with his 2nd half resurgence, I think we need to sign Max for 1 more year. Buxton - IMO, the PLAN has to be that he doesn’t exist. We need real CF options and he needs to be outside of those options (Castro - Gordon - Martin……..all probably comparable or better offensive stats with Taylor’s ‘23 output) & sufficient defensively. If CF & Catcher are the only sub-standard offensive spots we have we’ll be OK! Q -Top end starter adds/re-sign Gray: Been behind making Sonny an offer for 2-3 years but frankly, it’s mostly sentimental. His upside doesn’t offset the potential downside. We got burned with Mahle - Buxton is going to linger - don’t need a 34 year old pitcher with high injury risk/high $$$! Make the QO & take the pick and consider his tenure here a real plus……….that said, Festa or somebody is going to come out of our organization by ‘25. We have 5 starters now - we need affordable starter depth - that’s spelled KENTA! Q - Extensions: I’d try to extend Ryan…….if we could extend Durán, it makes real sense, before he is a national star……..he’s close to that now. His two innings of flawless relief in Game 4 stamped him as the most dominant young reliever in the game. Q - Fist base option: Kirilloff!!….130 games. If Solano is still able to hit, he’s the obvious 2B for all games not played by Kirilloff. He’s probably released or traded by the deadline if he’s not in that .265BA plus range. IF Buxton can’t run but can hit, he needs to get proficient at 1B throughout the year……….Spring Training - special assignment during season “coming off IL” - gotta be able to play there by end of August…….need options with him other than DH.

Definitely need more plate discipline - agree, comes with experience. Do need Kirilloff as well as a new talented bat to make our line-up SOLID through 6 guys. Assuming that guy is going to be Lee. That’s the kind of roster we have if Buxton can just hit .230 & bat 6th. Keep Kepler but drop him to 7th to stretch our line-up. ‘24 post-season line-up: Julien - Lee - Lewis - Kirilloff - CC - Buxton - Kepler - Jeffers - Wallner…….If Buxton can’t play OF I take a chance with Martin in CF & bat him 9th, as a 2nd lead-off type. Castro - Farmer - Vázquez - Martin on bench …………may re-sign Solano as insurance for depth & the first half while Lee & Martin mature through June at AAA. Maybe trade Solano or Farmer if it makes sense at the deadline? If we’re having success that’s a tough move in the clubhouse though!!

We traded Luis Arraez for a Marlin’s starter last year. Alcantara is out with Tommy John for ‘24. Luzardo is now their Ace. The skinny rookie phenom isn’t up to be traded! Who would trade a solid pitcher, Marlins or Mariners for Wallner???? I’d trade Wallner - Miranda - Sands ……….maybe be we get a 4th and starter for that group? I like Wallner - with another year of outfield refinement

Probably right - can’t hurt to see if the offer might fly. I don’t think his upside from here on out matches what we might get for $75M over 3 years. This year was most innings pitched for 8 years……he’s soon to be 34. Qualifying offer and then gaining a first round pick probably makes most sense.

Therefore, everyone else’s strikeout % would be lowered due to walks - sacrifices - errors - etc. I get it - been watching baseball for 55 years. Bottom line is that the Twins lead baseball in strikeouts. Must be reduced. I did put K totals next to the % so it’s easy to see the % for the individual of the Team’s whole total. We can debate whether acceptable level of % is 30% or 28% or 25%. We strike out way too much as a group and the shiny rookies that have better OBP are part of the problem as well, regardless of how many walks they draw or how many HBP they have. If I see Julien strike out looking, routinely taking pitches as if he’s Ted Williams, again next year I’ll have to start writing him personally. I realize his OBP is elite but he still doesn’t put the ball in play enough when making outs. Wallner has two big holes to attack in the zone (up & in ….. down & away) - and then, in his not big hole areas in the rest of the zone, he strikes out at a normal rate. Too many empty results in his PLATE APPEARANCES.

I’d offer Gray a 2 year deal for $26M/year…….a Team option for year 3 at $26M or a $4M buyout. This gives him a fair market offer for a 34 year old. Also, if he pitches well he gets a 3rd year or a goodbye present if $4M. That’s the simple OUT but I would prefer that same/similar deal offered to Jordan Montgomery of the Rangers. The Rangers have $ tied up in deGrom - Scherzer - Heaney - Eovaldi for ‘24 & they need bullpen help. Montgomery is a FA in a couple weeks. Would be good to get his experience and a left hander for our staff!! We could resign Maeda and let him be our fill the gaps starter & go with Lopez - Varland - Ryan - Ober - Paddack for our base staff. I understand completely the capability and great consistency that Gray brought to the Twins this year. The bottom line, we won only about 40+% of the games Gray started. If Varland can throw 30 starts and go 11–11 and we win 4 of his other 8 starts, we are ahead of the results we had with Gray this year. I think this is realistic - very realistic. Our team ERA will be higher - we may use a few more bullpen innings but the W-L’s could actually improve without Gray. Not saying Gray didn’t pitch well - saying that his talent & stats didn’t equate to a high win % in the games he started, whether or not he got a decision. Gray - Mahle - Maeda - Polanco - Gallo - the salary relief is $50M with these guys gone……….plenty of $ to pick up Montgomery or like pitcher & lower annual spending.

TV deal could strangle the team’s ability to get to next level. Gotta assume the club’s play is worth some TV revenue from some local source - worst case 60% of Bally’s number?? That’s $32M. Reasonable assumption? Am assuming the attendance got to 2 million plus a few after 4 playoff games……what’s that revenue worth? Gotta be millions in advertising $ attached to Twins - not sure how that flows to the club? I’m in Cincinnati and don’t know average Twins ticket cost - little feel at all. Is $40 plus as an average too high? That would mean they got to $85-90M for the year. Gotta be some radio revenue for 162 games per year………..$ number? Concessions & Merch?? $25M additional revenue……..maybe $15M net to Twins. Anybody have better, more refined & view of finances? Without considering revenue - knowing Club spent $153M on players roughly in ‘23………I was hopeful Twins would be willing to spend $150M going forward - maybe a stretch?

Taylor had 130 K’s - 37% of AB’s Gallo had 142 K’s - 51% of AB’s Larnach had 72 K’s - 39% Buxton had 109 K’s - 36% That’s 455 K’s between 4 guys………3 of which have a shot to not be on the club going forward. The % is the really alarming number. Julien had 128 K’s - 38% Wallner had 80 K’s - 38% Gotta get the numbers into the sub 30% range and we’d be markedly better!!

Exactly. Again, averaged 76 games per year in 7 of 8 previous seasons to the 85 games in ‘23. No reason to think the rest of his physique will be bullet proof if his knee gets better. I still think that if healed, he still can only play CF 25% of the time & DH 50% of the time. If we are more aggressive with his playing approach his chances of going on IL are about 100% - even with a load mgmt. plan his injury chances are about 90%………sad but pretty realistic.

Sonny Gray re-signed for $25-26M/year is a fair deal at 34 years old. Couple years with Team option for a 3rd? Watching Jordan Montgomery pitch for Rangers for 3rd time in playoffs this year…….they have $ tied up in deGrom - $ tied up in Eovaldi - $ tied up in Heany - $ tied up in Scherzer. Montgomery is a free-agent. $25M to a lefty with fresh playoff experience for 2-3 years could be a nice replacement for Mr. Gray??? The $ would come from Gray’s plus Mahle’s combined ‘23 salary. Interesting thought!

Any supposition on how things will turn out & how he’ll play or not next year is strictly guesswork/fantasy. As I stated somewhere else tonight, it is my assumption that his best case is 40 games in CF - 80 games at DH - 10 games as pinch hitter - 30 games off (20% of the schedule) ………..this doesn’t have anything to do with his surgical results - I guess it assumes success - but it relates to preserving his ability to be in the line-up. BEFORE ‘23 Byron played 140 games one year……….,the other 7 years he averaged 76 games per season. He played 85 games in ‘23. IF he’s got a reasonable knee spring of ‘24, if used the way he has been prior to ‘23, he’ll break down due to some unknown. Need to temper his efforts - needs rest - we all know we don’t NEED his defense, it’s just entertaining.

Sorry this is so harsh, but I mentioned in another post, that Celestino won’t ever wear a home uniform again in Minneapolis - gotta say I feel the same way about Miranda. Miranda can’t play the position he was groomed to play at 3B. Moving him to OF is a worthwhile experiment I guess. Don’t see him catching up to nor surpassing any of our existing outfield options. Defensively, in the Twins organization, he’s behind Julien and that’s not a good thing. He can’t hit. Celestino can’t hit. Larnach looks way better with way more upside at the plate and he can stay on big club because he can’t hit well enough. I realize guys can improve but the window is open for a brief time, particularly on a team that is trying to get to a World Series now, not in 4-5 years. Miranda’s issues may be linked to injury way more than has been communicated or broadcast - hope so, then he may have a chance to bounce back!

There’s a helluva cavern between Nick Gordon and Bellinger, nearly $30M……..,,side note, Celestino will never were a home uniform in Minneapolis again. Can’t imagine not bringing Taylor back for $5M range - if Buxton is healthy and Gordon & Castro are creating a log jam in CF at the end of Spring Training somebody gets traded. If Martin has a nice Spring then he becomes a LF & CF option on the big club.

So, would love to see Buxton come back! The real issue, to me is that if he comes back fairly strong after this new procedure, his history in 7 of his first 8 years is that he averaged 76 games per season. He finds all kinds of ways & all kinds of things to get injured. I still think he can only play 40 games in CF & DH 80 games & pinch hit in 10 games while resting 20% of season over the remaining 30 games. With this PLAN we may start to get true value for his contract but more importantly value in his performance!

Maki does deserve some serious credit. Easy to overlook the guy. I’d like to know if we could supplement his capabilities by poaching a staff guy (or some analytical equipment) from “Driveline” since they seem to have really helped a few of our pitchers profoundly. Seems like it would be a good hire - probably costly but I doubt there’s much more than a handful of guys affiliated with Driveline?? Worthwhile!!!

Why is Ryan being in or out a concern? We gave up 3 runs to the World Series Champs at home, pitching was fine no matter who was doing it………gotta score more runs to win the game. Period!