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JD-TWINS

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  1. JD-TWINS

    Budgeting in Baseball

    JD-TWINS commented on Paul D's blog entry in Paul Danesi

    So, I don’t think any rational person would argue your points and general overview of business. IMO, there’s no need for transparency (complete) in a privately held business. There’s nothing wrong with profit either. Sports teams are high profile entities that are entertainment based with a broad cross-section of the public as customers/fans. Part of their Marketing approach to the customer base is to describe their “general thinking” on how they expect to compete - payroll being one element. That said, the Twin’s payroll total in 2024 has a few supporting factors that point to an expected total $30M higher than where they currently stand. They were 16th - 18th - 17th in payroll out of 30 MLB teams the past 3 years…….17th in 2019 as well. Right now, the team’s total is very near $122M……….the issue I have is that the revenues for ‘24 that are transparent, $$/seat - attendance, TV revenue, MLB Revenue Sharing, minimal net revenues from concessions & merchandise, are all pretty firm numbers. The commitment from the ownership has been a spending of 50-52% of liquid revenues. The general total revenue for ‘24, in a minimum range, seems to be $325M…………..50% equaling $162M. Twins are currently $3M under 2021’s payroll of $125M and change. They are $12M under 2022’s payroll. They are $32M under (an inflated spend in ‘23) 2023’s payroll. 2023 also netted increased revenues from the expected/budgeted norm, due to Playoff games and some portion of that TV revenue and Gate at Target field for a few games. This revenue should have significantly offset any extra payroll spend in ‘23. Not sure, with success & inflation, how the Team can justify the spending going backwards to a sub-2021 level this year?
  2. JD-TWINS
    Paddack seems to be best characterized as Chris Archer, relative to innings per start. Most games, just getting through 5 innings will be a hurdle……….with a half-dozen in the 3 2/3 range. 24-26 starts near 5 inning average is 120-130 innings & maybe a sweet spot before a mid-September move to the Pen. A break sometime in July/August seems like it would be prudent. Fingers crossed for durability. The cutter addition is interesting. Always good to hear guys are mixing things up to become more effective.
  3. JD-TWINS
    Posted in another TD thread - if one projects the team’s payroll forward from 2019 - $119M ……Covid year………...2021 - $125M ………2022 - $134M ………(skip 2023 as an over spending outlier - over by &10M at $154M) 7% annual increase is typical for MLB payrolls. 2024 projects to $153M to be parallel to previous years……..Team is at $122M as of today and that’s less than 2021 payroll. Why??
  4. JD-TWINS
    I like the group of 4 but I’d consider leaving Julien at 2B - let Lee play 3B - CC at short - Lewis at 1B. 2025: To me, going forward, it would be good for Lewis to play both corner IF spots & DH…….Kirilloff in LF or at 1B when Lewis is elsewhere…….Lee at 3B & depth at SS……Julien at 2B & DH. Julien at 1B scares me……at least at this point. Santana & Farmer both gone next year.
  5. JD-TWINS
    Mahle - Gray - Ober are all essentially a wash……seems to denote that they didn’t affect the ERA as catchers. Lopez struggled early in year more often - no accounting here for opponents (good/bad) - again, I think they both call a good game and the spikes here attributed to one or the other catcher is probably due to pitcher’s performance.
  6. JD-TWINS
    So, based on comments and data from the Pohlad interview/article in TD, I hi-light the following: Pohlad - “……since 2008…….,,Twins are, have been, committed to spending 50-52% of their revenues” on payroll. Article states the Revenue Share from MLB is $200M + TV revenue of $40M (I thought it was 85% of last year or $47M??) + with a decent club & playoff excitement carryover Attendance of 2,000,000 in ‘24 at last year’s avg ticket price of $33.89 = $67.7M. Last, NET revenues from concessions & merchandise sales at the Park ……….a CONSERVATIVE $8/patron = $16M. $200 + $40 + $67.7 + $16M = $323.7M 52% of Revenue = $168.3M 50% of Revenue = $161.85M Per Pohlad, team should spend $164M…….so what if the article numbers are off a bit and the spend should really be $145M…….please spend it! Wisely!! To me, this seems reasonable and it reflects what the owner has said they are committed to spend on payroll, as %, this week. Assumes they draw 25,000/game up from 24,300/game in ‘23. Assumes they do not change ticket prices. Assumes $8 total profit from each patron on concessions and merchandise ……this seems fairly conservative to me! Go get Clevinger and Max out at $138-$140M ….,ALCS bound! Everybody’s happy.
  7. JD-TWINS
    Recent Twin’s Payrolls & relative position v. other MLB teams, for 2nd straight day: 2019 - $119.6M. - 17 of 30 2020 - Covid season with 60 games - 18 of 30 2021 - $125.3M 16th of 30 2022 - $134.4M 18th of 30 2023 - $154M 17th of 30 2024 - currently at $122M - (? guess 22 of 30) Based on a 7% annual payroll increase, as an average, 2023 should have been $143M total spend & 2024 should be $153M. These two years & their totals are derived from where the Twins Payroll was from 2019 - 2022! At this point, Team’s payroll is less than 2021’s spend of $125.3M. Cannot see how this is justifiable???? Am assuming if payroll stays at $122M, the organization’s position v. other 30 teams would be in the 22 of 30 range - will shake out in next month. Probable payroll explanation for 2023 is BAM $$ - the team only spent $10M more than expected in ‘23 - they received $30M in BAM money so they pocketed or spent $20M elsewhere.
  8. JD-TWINS
    Kirilloff had a 117 OPS+ ……. his wrist seemed fine last year. He hit .270…….hard hit rate as % was 6 % above average at 44%. OBP of .348. Averaged 1 HR per 25 AB. Shoulder seems to have healed over winter. With Kirilloff getting 500 AB’s being ready from the jump this year, he hits 20 HR. Santana gets 250 AB’s between 1B - DH - Pinch hitting……..he hits 10 HR. That’s good production between the two! I think Lee will take a bit to be ready with the bat……into June. His role will depend on many factors. Is Buxton healthy? If not, Lee - Lewis - CC can get AB’s at DH. Lee can share “the resting duties” between 2B - SS - 3B with Farmer. Castro will be very focused on OF if Lee’s brought up. I still think Lee is the Central guy at 3B after September 1………Lewis plays some at 3B - more at DH - possibly in LF as well. Gotta have Kirilloff - Julien - Lewis - Lee - CC in the line-up to hit!! Wallner - Buxton - Kepler is the baseline but with an injury, Lewis could fill in out there on grass along with Castro.
  9. JD-TWINS
    Gray obviously deserved better run support!! The outcomes are what we are trying to replace…….Gray maybe 15–19 including playoffs? Anyway, I think Varland/DeScla/Festa/SWR can pitch 220 innings and have a .500 record with a few more runs and a better Pen. The ERA may not match up but the wins should be reasonable. Come playoffs……Ryan & Lopez can give a team a chance into the 5th inning in their starts. Ober could go 7 or could go 3 depending upon his command. I really like Paddack/Varland/Canterino as parts of the Playoff Pen. We’ll see who performs in the Pen through the year & who’s hot in September……………I think the current staff can get it done.
  10. JD-TWINS
    Obviously, guessing here…….Vazquez doing bat speed drills this winter & highly motivated after being embarrassed in last year’s playoffs ……….lost some weight as well…….also, having desire for Jeffers (both) FRESH in October will keep the starts more “even” through the year. Am assuming only two guys for the whole season again just because injury time is even more of a guess. 86 for Jeffers @ Catcher (53%) with 14 at DH (if his offense stays stellar) & 76 for Vazquez (47%), with a bunch of those (25) coming v. LH pitching. Vazquez got $10M because of experience - Defense - .271 BA from ‘19 - ‘22……….expecting a bit of an uptick from him in ‘24 is certainly plausible ……….if that happens it may be more like 50/50?
  11. JD-TWINS
    Not thrilled with the CC outcomes but to be fair, he hit .290 in 2022!! He hit over .400 in 2023 playoffs over 6 games!! He had a foot injury most of ‘23. Let’s take a look back after another season or two. The other players are, or it seems to be reported, enamored with his clubhouse attitude & leadership & experience & ability. We’ll see. Buxton’s OPS is really pretty reasonable since he signed - he just doesn’t stay on the field. Disappointing, for sure!!! A little bit of hindsight involved on the signing though. All-star in ‘22 & he makes $15M/year……………Lourdes Gurriel makes $14M/yr……..
  12. JD-TWINS
    Gurriel in ‘23 - .309 OBP & 108 OPS+ - 24 HR in 551 AB’s & 5 steals. Plays LF…….$14M/yr for 3 years W. Castro in ‘23 - .339 OBP & 106 OPS+ - 9 HR in 358 AB’s & 33 steals. Plays 3 OF & 3 IF as needed……..$3M/yr for 1 year F.O. does a pretty good job IMO. Topa made 70 appearances and had a 2.61 ERA ……..#76 Prospect (not a big deal to me) ……..potential 5th starter - Polanco played 80 games in ‘23. Seems like a good return for two arms & $5M total cost. Between the two arms they throw 10% of the Team’s innings (145) at worst. To me, Burnes for a year, & having to give up 4 - 5 assets (3 of which would have been pipeline guys) isn’t worthwhile. Keeping guys that have talent and will be inexpensive on your club in 1 - 4 years makes sense. Then though, FA is the path for the short term bump ahead…….I think team is fine!!
  13. JD-TWINS
    Paying Buxton $15M. Bellinger off a pretty good year for big $$???? Not wise, not happening. Can’t sign great or bust IMO, no Snell. Really good 85% of the time works really well. Montgomery has a CAREER 3.68 ERA - last year he was the Rangers (world champs) best pitcher from time he arrived over next 3 months. His stuff isn’t dynamic - don’t care, if he gets guys out! $30M - $24M - $24M…….player option after 2nd year…….$5M buyout for team for year 3. Worst case he gets $59M if Twins option out after year 2. His 3 year payout is potentially $26M average at $78M total. Boras wants the world, always, probably not enough?
  14. JD-TWINS
    No hate here, just reality, should be an easier job catching without Gray’s slider & curve diving into the dirt off the plate in the Left hander batters box.
  15. JD-TWINS
    Nick, not sure if this is accessible information, but it would be interesting to know what the fWAR prediction was for ‘23 for our duo. They finished 9th of 30 in ‘23…….very respectable. This year, for some reason, they are predicted to drop 20% of the slots to 15 of 30. Am assuming there isn’t much difference from 6-25??? Wondering if &/or by how much they overachieved in ‘23? May lead to a better expectation for ‘24.
  16. JD-TWINS
    Jeffers isn’t Johnny Bench but the expectations for nearly every Twin, other than Correa & Buxton & Vazquez (the bottomed out trio), to go backward seems to be midwesterners (Minnesotans) shooting low to not be embarrassed in the end. Low expectations to not draw attention. (am from MN!) Specific to catchers on roster…….if Jeffers hits .240 with an OBP of .330 and a slug% of .460, it’s regression but still All Good! Vazquez was embarrassed in the Playoffs after being acquired for his playoff experience & playing zero innings……..he’s been working hard on bat speed and has lost 7-8lbs and is dedicated to bounce back. Fingers crossed. Line-up OPS+: 130 - 98 - 117 - 150 - 121 - 94 - 139 - 134 - 106 Buxton & Correa are the guys expected to improve in ‘24………..#2 & #6 respectively above. Yet, this team “needs offensive help” because most hitters will regress or fail in ‘24. Nobody repeats success - nobody improves…….I don’t get it??? Julien - Buxton - Kirilloff - Lewis - Kepler - Correa - Wallner - Jeffers - Castro Vazquez - Farmer - Satana veterans that play defense & POST & don’t make mistakes…..,that’s bench depth…………FO, working with ownership imposed budget, assembled a really solid team!! Projected best bullpen in AL!! 3 good starters and another is pretty elite. Will have to piece together the 5th slot with 4-5 capable guys starting with Varland & DeSclafani. Seems like there should be a bit more optimism - tired of the “we lost Sonny Gray & all is lost”…….
  17. JD-TWINS
    With a better offense (even mildly better) & with a Bullpen expected to be the best in the AL, the expectations for more wins than eleven for Lopez is a pretty low bar, IMO. He got in better shape in ‘23 than he has ever been in - new team - new league - new pitch (sweeper). Lots to adjust to over a season. He was lights out in 2 playoff starts - .71 ERA. 3rd in baseball in K’s in ‘23. Expecting a step forward in ERA (was at 4.66 in mid-June) from 3.66 down to maybe 3.40 would be a nice goal. No major improvements if you go back a half-dozen years but there have been many guys in franchise history to steadily improve. Lopez was 11-8 ………again, he faced 2 Playoff teams and threw 12 plus innings with a .71 ERA. No reason to not think he can win 16 games with some health. Probably more if he starts 31-32 games.
  18. JD-TWINS
    So, I get they got $30M in BAM $$ in ‘23. Only a one time thing. The problem or, a problem, I have with the logic is that IF their payroll increased as it should have in ‘23 & parallel to what they had been doing, the ‘23 Payroll would have/should have been $143.8M. They did NOT spend $30M extra on payroll - it appears they spent an additional $10M. They were a year ahead of themselves - stay the SAME in ‘24 and let the years catch up to your payroll …..don’t go backward 3 years. A real stretch at a rationalization saying they went up a bit in ‘23…….. ’21 - 16th …… ‘22 - 18th …. ‘23 - 17th Not into being argumentative for debate sake ………. I just want the team to maintain commitment in the 30 team mix & commensurate to market size revenues.
  19. JD-TWINS
    So, I see there was discussion on the BAM money and where it came from - what it was, on 2/11. Baseball Advanced Media $$ is my understanding. No luck googling BAM relative to MLB so I have limited knowledge. I see your comments from the 11th. My comments were parallel to “don’t all teams get these $$?”. Assuming yes. If the Twins historically spend between 15-19th in MLB payroll (w/o BAM $$) ……pretty accurate? ……….& they spent 17th in baseball in ‘23, why is there such a need for a step back? Is every other team in baseball stepping back $30M in ‘24? If yes, no problem. If Twins were the only team to get BAM $$ in ‘23, no problem. Not sure if I’m completely apples to apples here - open to be educated! Looking at a source that compares last 4 years of Twins Payroll (starting in ’22) & where they ranked among 30 other teams, I see the following: ‘23 - $154M …….17th (based on what I’ve read) ’22 - $134.4M ……18th ’21 - $125.3M……. 16th ’20 doesn’t matter - 60 games - 18th ’19 - $119.6M …….18th Why would the Team/Organization spend in ‘24, at a level that is less than where they were at in ‘21? That doesn’t seem to have anything to do with BAM money in ‘23 & none in ‘24. Seems, if teams typically increase payroll 5-10% (we’ll call it 7%) annually, the Twins should be in the neighborhood of $155M in ‘24. $134,400,000 in ‘22 + 7% = $9,400,000 equates to expected payroll in ‘23, w/o BAM $$, of $143,800,000 $143,800,000 in ‘23 + 7% = $10,000,000 = $153,800,000 with normal increases year to year. Where is this flawed? Would be open to any thoughts. Thanks.
  20. JD-TWINS
    DeSclafani/Varland/Festa/SWR!!! SWR apparently had a solid entire 2nd half in ‘23. ……..I saw some footage of Festa at the Future’s Game - good stuff! Gotta be able to get 8-10 starts or 45-55 innings out of these two in strategic spots through the season. DeSclafani & Varland for 90 innings each at a probable minimum. Everyone’s fresh for September/October. Would also love Montgomery for 4-5 years but not very likely.
  21. JD-TWINS
    They are currently around $121M - that’s what I’ve seen……….assuming they will release or sign & trade Farmer in ‘25……$7M more off the total. So, $15M added to this year’s total - end up at $136M…………at that point they are $18M under ‘23’s total of $154M. In ‘23 they were 17th in payroll and it fit with their history and their market size. Gotta get back to $155M next year at a minimum!
  22. JD-TWINS
    I do not see (a Big Fan of Kyle) Farmer back with the Team in ‘25………….Lee & Martin & maybe Prato (or like) bump him off the roster at $770K. That’s a $7M reduction to the estimated $140M. If the Twins were at a major league (based on market size) commensurate Payroll of 17th in ‘23, why is a budget of $133M scary 2 years later??????? Not personal question - question to the group. There will be TV money at a minimum, to match this year’s revenue…..no excuse there. Wallner is in RF in ‘25. DeSclafani is gone by then, if not prior. Santana - Farmer - IMO - if Alcala is healthy, he’ll perform. His cost next year might be $2.5M or so ……he’s a maybe. Farmer is gone due to push from younger options and his cost.
  23. JD-TWINS
    All the “baseball guys” analysis to date have Lee projected for left side of the infield. Can he play 2B, without a doubt. I understand being nervous about Lewis in the OF but realistically, LF is physically less demanding than 3B. It solves the RH hitting OF issue & allows the better 3B defender into the line-up. DH is also a good health move occasionally for Lewis. I’ve compared Julien & Kirilloff’s offense here before. Julien has better power by a HR in 21 AB’s v. a HR in 25 AB’s for Kirilloff. Kirilloff, while still hampered at times by injury (which can’t last forever) hit .270 (7 points higher than Julien btw) with a .348 OBP & 117 OPS+ …………….other than being injury prone & then playing not even half the time in ‘23…….am not really sure why anyone thinks Julien would supplant a healthy Kirilloff at 1B? Why do people, objectively, not think the Twins should want &/or need his bat in the line-up as much as possible???? Julien at DH is a reasonable thought. Sorry, as I said above, if Miranda hits .400 this spring, he still doesn’t have a spot on the roster. Can’t roster a DH to hit against LH pitching (and not get everyday AB’s he’d get in St. Paul) Interesting stat here in last couple days - Buxton has better reverse splits than v. LH pitching. If that’s accurate, he slots as DH often and limits Julien’s options there. I expect stays quo for the 26 man unless they acquire an OF. Meaning, to start the year, Larnach is the 26th man.
  24. JD-TWINS
    Keirsy Jr. showed up in ‘23 & with CF chops and nice speed…….could be in the mix. Don’t understand the Goodrum move other than they just had a spot and could DFA later & try to float through waivers?
  25. JD-TWINS
    Seems he faded in late ‘22 - no real reason to have confidence his bat will play - earn attention in St. Paul first…………Santana is squarely ahead of him at 1B. No reason that a guy coming off injury, with options, that’s a mediocre defender at his two positions is going to have a chance at a roster spot. Even if he hits .400 this spring, where does he play? Unless the team commits to have Lewis take reps in LF this spring, the last roster spot definitely goes to an OF. Martin on the roster or Lewis in LF clears up the “need” for a RH outfield bat v. LH pitching………..Castro is an option in that role as well. Lewis there opens a spot for Lee at 3B, if he’s the last guy on roster. Martin in CF - Castro in RF - Buxton at DH v. LH pitching makes sense to me. Larnach as a rotation guy in the corner spots is probable to start the year. LH bat v. RH pitching at DH. Lets Castro float and remain flexible through the games. Kiersy Jr., nice speed in CF & off bench, probably isn’t ready & a long shot - Martin is more probable. With all 3 guys having options, my assumption is they’ll give Larnach AB’s early in the year and see how he looks. He did lead the team with 38 RBI at some point in June last season. Lastly, a long shot early but a “maybe” by July, is Lee at 2B a bunch and Julien at DH v. RH pitching. To me, the Julien at 1B talk is not a real option……….unless Kirilloff has a significant injury & out months.
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