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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    My fault on the Ryan line from today’s game above………I got the two lines reversed. Ryan gave up a run on 3 hits. ……Cole Sands looks like he’s making a case for 8th spot in Pen.
  2. JD-TWINS
    “More” is 51% & above. If Kirilloff is hitting .270 or above he’s going to PLAY against RH pitching essentially every day. That’s about 122 games. Santana gets ALL the starts v. LH pitching at 1st Base. That’s 38-45 games or so. Kirilolloff may get starts in LF when Kepler rests some & Wallner moves over. He’ll DH maybe 40-50 games. So 10 in LF - 45 at DH - 70 at 1B………..that’s 125 games started. 92 total games at 1B for Santana per these assumptions. I don’t think he’ll get more starts than that if Kirilloff stays healthy.
  3. JD-TWINS
    Is that accurate, most Minnesotan’s can’t watch the Twins? I live in Ohio. I hear complaints but assume it’s the small minority of fans that have an issue. I have Prime Network for about $10/mo. ……..with that( all kinds of movies, and other programming) I sign up for the MLB Subscription and I get every game played in MLB, every day. $149/year. Twins got blacked out twice last year on Friday nights when Apple TV had their game. Watched Spring training game yesterday. Just turned on game today at 2:00 Eastern & Ryan is throwing in the 4th v. the Tigers. Ryan up to 62 pitches & only 1 hit & 1 run through 4. He cut his hair! …………….I have it so I don’t get the problems BUT I do understand not everyone has same access to programming/streaming etc. Fan since ‘67………..“Used” seems like a dramatic term. If that’s how you feel, I guess it makes sense. Personally, am upbeat about the F.O. and the personnel they’ve assembled. Disappointed in Organization’s spending reverting back to 2021 level! Think the Team has a good chance to build on what they put together last year - offense COULD be sneaky good!
  4. JD-TWINS
    Kirilloff hit .270 last year and was semi-healthy. If he feels right (big maybe) he may improve his power & average. He had an OBP of .348 and an OPS+ of 117 in ‘23. He can play! Just needs to stay healthy and he’s around for another handful of years.
  5. JD-TWINS
    Don’t see Miranda in Minneapolis unless Santana (RH hitting platoon guy) gets hurt. Santana almost always posts. Hasn’t missed any significant time since ‘14.
  6. JD-TWINS
    Pretty sure Lopez was 2-0 in playoffs in ‘23. Good pitcher! Only thing to add is, how can a guy that hasn’t started a game nor thrown an inning & has complained of elbow soreness, can’t see DeScla being in rotation for a number of weeks into the season at best.
  7. JD-TWINS
    Most fans have thought salaries have been out of hand since Catfish Hunter was in his prime……….’74 or so - right? Teams “informally” collude and then it becomes found out and the owners pay the price at some point. Cycle. The TV revenues have really driven cash flow for many organizations over the past 20 plus years. They seem to be unstable. IMO, this will get solved across some or a few platforms. The faucet will be turned back on soon after.
  8. JD-TWINS
    Can’t imagine you are not 100% correct!! Games start in 15 days……..even if the first start for the “5th starter” isn’t until April 8-10, I can’t imagine how a guy that’s been dealing with elbow soreness and HAS NOT thrown in a live game can viably be considered to be on the 26-man. I think Varland, if there’s no unforeseen meltdown, will be on the Staff well into May.
  9. JD-TWINS
    But, he can’t play. Certainly can’t hit! Bring up Larnach - Martin - Prato - Hellman - Keirsey - Severino - Miranda ………etc., & then let them option back to AAA. He’s been in the Majors parts of 6 seasons & 2023 wasn’t one. He’s 32. Career OBP of .299 - his best year and only league average year was 6 years ago with an OPS+ of 100. In 4 of his 6 years he hit .059 - .184 - .214 - .116. For those who don’t believe Batting Average is important, he had a NEGATIVE OPS+ in 2 of his 6 years. Not sure how that is accomplished? People here have complained about young guys needing a chance and that vets like Farmer & even Kepler are “blocking” guys from showing their abilities in the Show. How can anyone promote the Team having Goodrum on their 26-man, ever?
  10. JD-TWINS
    Article last week in the Athletic about the TWINS and the history of their good left handed hitters and how they were sharply skewed one way with results by weighing OPS. The results were v. RH & LH pitchers. Only Carew had an OPS over .800 facing left handed pitching. Koskie was around .770………Oliva was .690 ……Mauer was .760 I believe & Morneau slightly less. Hrbek wasn’t too bad from memory. They had another half dozen guys and nobody was what people would consider good v. LH pitching. That said, it’s not some terrible thing for Wallner or Julien to struggle v. LH pitching. Playing them & expecting them regularly v. lefties to “work it out” doesn’t make sense. This assumes the team has alternative RH batters. The amount of RH pitchers throughout life as a player gets the RH hitters more used to seeing pitching from the right side. LH hitters don’t see too many lefties growing up & very few are proficient hitting them. Being worried about guys sticking in the Show because they are struggling v LH pitching is worrying about something that likely isn’t changing any time soon.
  11. JD-TWINS
    Somebody’s gotta pitch….., Varland was up in ‘22 for 5 starts and had a sub 4.00 ERA. 60 plus innings in ‘23 and too many HR - higher ERA. He was pretty dominant in relief. If he continues to improve his command through reps he’ll be fine at some point. Seems he’ll be the 5th guy through April the way DeScla. is progressing. DeScla. may be toast as well - sore elbows, one season to the next, are not a good thing!! Varland could be up to start the year and stay for months…….SWR’s 2nd half of ‘23 and work so far in ‘24 is encouraging as well.
  12. JD-TWINS
    Castro is hitting .500 this Spring & Larnach is hitting .333………either work in LF. Larnach is the roster spot replacement. Wallner’s 1 for 16 isn’t real good - can’t imagine him being left in St. Paul.
  13. JD-TWINS
    Ask George Carlin.
  14. JD-TWINS
    Gray was 180 innings plus with a 2.79 ERA……Maeda was 106 innings at around 4.25 ERA. Seems the math is close on what Team is trying to replace. I’d like to focus on the Wins - Losses that have left the rotation. The Team ‘s Gray/Maeda combined record in their starts was around 21-26. Can Team go .500 in games started by the new starters? Am not really concerned about matching the combined ERA from last season. We’ll see.
  15. JD-TWINS
    I get being somewhat skeptical about a couple of new guys. I don’t understand the questioning of the Pen overall though? Even if we never heard of Staumont - Topa - Okert - Jackson………there are at least 8 decent options in the system. These new 4 all being terrible isn’t very likely. The added depth with these 4, to the guys the organization already had, seems to have been a good move to me.
  16. JD-TWINS
    He was obviously pitching - he’s got a 4 pitch mix right?? Not sure if I’m misunderstanding you? He played some SS as well as being a Star Pitcher is my assumption. Hope he stays healthy enough to contribute in 2-3-4 more years…….he sure has a lot to learn about pitching at 18!
  17. JD-TWINS
    You will need to loan (give) the organization about $110M to make that happen. Whole bunch of reasons that’s not happening but even if the $50M per year was only $22M per year……….the money is staying with guys they have and potentially on pitching if there’s a glaring need after ‘24.
  18. JD-TWINS
    Agree - don’t see him in the Show until at least June. If he doesn’t hit WELL he may not be up at all. I struggle with the thought that he may replace someone on the basis of poor performance……,,injury, sure. I do think Martin may be ahead of Lee at this point.
  19. JD-TWINS
    No doubt DeSclafani is a potential problem. He’s been hurt about 40-50% of his time in the Majors. I don’t see the Team letting OBER go much more than 170 innings in regular season. PADDACK, maybe 125 innings. Guys like SWR & Festa will be key from July onward. Varland is pretty strong and has been building up - I think he’s good for 110 plus innings this year. Lopez -185 Ryan - 175 Ober - 165 Paddack - 115 Varland - 110 SWR - 40 Festa - 50 DeSclafani - 60?? That’s 558 innings for the Pen divided by 10 -11 guys……….maybe some additional “starter innings”?
  20. JD-TWINS
    He seems, on paper, to be in a battle with Staumont and Weiss for the 8th spot in the Pen. Okert - Jackson Thielbar - Topa Jax - Stewart Duran This seems to be the 6th - 9th……..Alcala could step in anywhere if his command is right. Fingers crossed!
  21. JD-TWINS
    Have said 15 times here (not that my opinion rules - just watching the tendencies over 12 months) & will once again, Brooks Lee is targeted for the left side of the infield. He’ll back up CC in ‘25 & he’ll start a bunch at 3B v. RH pitching. He’ll play some 2B after Farmer leaves the team. Lee has to hit for 6-8 weeks at a high level at AAA before he’s considered ready to push somebody off the 26-Man. Julien is too good not to keep his bat in play & DH is clogged with Buxton for 5 more years……even if he’s completely healed and plays CF 80 games per year. Julien isn’t moving to 1B……..needs to focus on ONE position. Kirilloff & Lewis are the ????? on defense in ‘25. I think Lewis floats, LF - 3B - 1B. Kirilloff at 1B & LF. Martin & Castro between OF first and IF as needed. 4 guys moving back & forth between dirt & grass ……..ultimate in flexible roster. If Niko Goodrum makes it to Target Field at any point in time, I’ll have to quit following the franchise.
  22. JD-TWINS
    Nobody in the organization cares what Bailey Ober or Chris Paddack said in a Spring Training interview about how many innings they expect to throw….,,,,just be happy they didn’t say 140 & 100. At least they want to compete! Didn't read the article but I am confused about your comments about velo & spin rates being raised to new ceilings with “the innings expectations of yesteryear”……nobody, save a half dozen guys in the game pitch innings anywhere near guys from even 20 years ago. 200 innings is a huge amount. Any starter getting to 180 innings is a WORKHORSE. 135 - 170 seems to be a typical range for somebody with decent success and no serious injuries.
  23. JD-TWINS
    Yep, he’s our #7 batter coming off a year with a .380 OBP and a bunch of power……..Jeffers in the #8 spot to help protect him……..I think we’ll score some runs in ‘24!
  24. JD-TWINS
    ……can’t get too concerned about his sprint speed dropping if he was running like Killebrew in ‘23 with foot injury. To me his range isn’t fantastic but he’s very solid (to me) on balls he gets to and his arm makes up for some deficiencies. Agreed, a 4.0 WAR season should be on the way and that’s a big boost over ‘23!!
  25. JD-TWINS
    Seriously, no Wallner? …….Miranda??? The guy had a .370 OBP & a .507 Slg%……these aren’t deep dive stats. He’s a corner OF here for next 5 years. If he regresses after his ROOKIE year it’s understandable. But if he’s within 10% of the stats shown here, he’s very solid & “possibly” a star in the making.
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