PatPfund

This is a good question, because Arraez is clearly one of the better hitters on the team (right now the only three clearly ahead are Buxton, Correa, and Polanco). He gives consistent competitive high average at-bats regardless of who he is facing. He runs up pitch counts, gives those on-deck extended looks, and can help force pitchers out earlier. The problem is both mediocre D, and the fact that his positions in the field are already covered by Polanco (better with bat and D) and Urshela (better at D, probably similar tier with bat). A straight platoon with Urshela doesn't fix much because either way it puts one of the better bats on the bench leaving three major weak spots in the order (Sano at 1B, Kepler in RF, fill-in-the-blank in LF). Most of us hope/believe part of this will be fixed with Kirilloff starting to hit, but the above situation is why I think Alex needs to stay in LF. Everyone is excited to supplant Sano at 1B, but Miguel has actually played pretty well over there this year (fruits of the slim down?), and Kirilloff could fill one of the Three Bat Voids by staying in LF. Keeping Sano at 1B also lets you put one of the best hitters on your team in a position designed for one of your best hitters, DH. Arraez should probably be in the starting lineup about 3/4 of the time, and 2/3 of those should be at DH with the balance giving Urshela and Polanco days off. Lack of power? Who cares; this team's problem isn't a lack of people who can hit the ball out, it is a shortage of people who can consistently hit. And I guess hope Alex hits soon. (I'm afraid at this point, Sano and Kepler are what they are. A big guy who strikes out a LOT, walks, can hit really long home runs, but goes ice cold for months at a time. And a guy who literally seems incapable of adapting to shifts, and is really a defensive OF replacement at this point.)

The problem isn't really scheduling games in April; it's scheduling with few gaps? Not sure how much of this is due to the lockout stupidity and the late start, but it is a self-inflicted wound. Scheduling earlier in the day gives more flex, but the night game is probably to let LA get into town.

Seth, love the format; 10-15 minutes is something I'm more likely to watch, and kudos to Thomas; I'm enjoying the Kernels broadcasts! Not sure if this was forwarded, but maybe in a month or so it might be fun to connect to Jake Cave. Polarizing peeps make great ratings! So many beard questions! FYI, I was not able to comment here for those who had issues, but the site admin found a permissions issue that has been fixed. Upside, everyone should be set. Downside, I am! (giggle)

Ah, the agonies of the early season where these two games portend a horrible year! Or mean exactly nothing, and we're all laughing a month from now about how low we felt. It was pretty clear Rocco was going to give Duffey the first shot at closing (he was also getting ready to work the 10th on Friday if needed). Which I think is a terrible idea (Duffey is a variable somewhat above average reliever with declining velocity), but maybe had to be done from a team standpoint.) Hopefully, going forward, Alcala and Pagán will get their shots before the inevitable Duran takeover. (FYI, I doubt Duran was even available given his history of elbow issues and the fact he threw 2 innings in the Opener. But when even your opponents are saying 'WTH was that?' after facing one of your relievers, it might be a clue he should close games at some point.) Also, for those waving around the Rogers save; yep he's good, which is why we got two good players back for him. Also José Berríos's ERA is 108.00, so aren't we all glad now he's gone? (Or maybe it is just early, and games are 1/162 of a season.)

Great article, because draft position and bonus mean nothing once you run out on the field. It's play that breaks you out. Though I'd certainly have Encarnacio-Strand on the Kernels list somewhere; sure he can't hit .900 with 30% of ABs leaving the yard all year, but he's coming off a .391 (short) first year in pro ball, and still mashing to open 2022. Plus, he's a college player, so if he keeps it up, I can see him moving up pretty quickly.

Beloit's pitching staff must be having Encarnacio-Strand nightmares at this point.

I think the groupings you have are good, but don’t work at all with the numerical rankings (rank in order is good, or rank by group with the numbers out of sequence good, but not both?). The fun of any list, too, is the chance to suggest differences, and here are a few of mine: Cody Stashak and Griffin Jax are rated too high; both have given gutsy needed innings in the past, but both have been a bit exposed/injured, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they never make it back up to the Twins. Sands and Strotman (who you have down at the bottom) are already tossing at AAA, and unless Stashak/Jax get good results quickly, S and S are likely to be the early call ups. And Balazovic is looming to pass by Stashak/Jax as well. I’m putting Archer ahead of Bundy/Jax/Stashak/Romero. Winder is easily top 20; already in the Bigs, and possibly a rotation pitcher at some point this season. I love the Thielbar story, but no way is he a back of bullpen stud; an ERA in the ‘3’s for a one inning pitcher is more steady than stud, plus he is 35. I’d rate him no more than #30 on this list, and predict by the end of the calendar year he will be off the 40-man. (Here is where the groupings most distort the rankings; even if you like Thielbar there is no way he is better/more valuable than both your MLB catchers, and your everyday starting 3B.) No way as well that Duffey is #12 on the 40-man. Or anywhere ahead of Alcala and Duran for long (even in Rocco’s mind). I love Max, but he probably ranks more aroun the late teens or early 20s, and is vulnerable to benching/demoted-to-sub if any two young OFs start hitting. (Unless he actually starts to hit, but I've sort of lost hope there.) Totally agree that Larnach is an x-factor bat, but he needs to light it up pretty quickly or other x-factors will blow past him (non-40-man Martin, Miranda, Celestino if the lamp goes on in the Bigs as it did in AAA last year). I’d probably drop him into the 28-32 range, which fits better with him not making the 28-man roster. Based on his hot start, I'd also rank Jake Cave as an x-factor bat, and rank him highly. Well except he isn't on the 40-man, I just remembered he is actually Jake Cave, and this post is 3 times too long if I'm talking about Jake Cave...

You can see both of E-S's HRs on video in the article above; 1st was center at the knees, the second more center-center. As I remember from the first HR, the pitchers for the Sky Carp were struggling with control to an extent that had already cost them the lead, and filled the bases, so I'm guessing there wasn't the confidence/ability/instructions needed to tempt E-S at the edges. The second might have been a mistake, or a 'it's cold and we're down 5; throw strikes and let your defense play and move the game along.'

Amen, brother! Another MiLB bonus is the effort to pick up the pace of the game. Not sure about all of them, but the pace is definitely faster (which helps the spectating as much as it notoriously helps keep the defenders in the game).

Opposite going on in Louisville. A borderline pitch was called a strike, and the Louisville broadcast crew (on a bitterly cold night) openly speculated that anything close was going to get called to move the game, and the batters should be ready to swing. (And they were probably right. Looked like about 10 fans left at the park around the 6th inning.)

Great article! Since I lost my avenue for watching Twins games live (my old ISP's server was in Chicago, so MLB.tv blacked out the ChiSox/Cubs, and treated Twins as out-of-market; an unintended bonus for me until they disconnected this area), I plunked my MLB.tv money into Twins Daily, The Athletic, and an annual subscription to MiLB.tv. ($50). I'll be "watching" the Twins on radio (which is fine; I'm old so I'm used to the medium), but I'm getting way more bang for my buck! Had a gas scrolling between the Saints and Kernels last night with an added benefit being there were often no commercials between innings, and no black screen announcing a commercial was in progress. Instead you get to watch (soundless, alas) some of the 'tween innings hijinx put on in the minors. So much fun; a great chance to see the Twins up-and-comers (including that monster Cave!!! who is that guy?!?!?!?!), and visual to add context to these excellent Minor League reports.

Nice recap! As a local transit driver, I can also add that whatever festivities the Twins had on in the early morning had cars backed up from Target Field's plaza on 7th all the way back to near Hennepin even though there was still snow on the ground. (While a brief pain to work around, it was heart-warming to see all those fans fired up at 6 a.m.!)

I predict... Many will over-react to whatever happens on Opening Day and Opening Weekend. There will be moments of glory and despair. Someone will get hurt. The Dodgers and Blue Jays will be fabulous, and one will win it all... ...unless they don't. Game play will be so much better than anything we can predict. I'll be following it all on Twins Daily; thanks to the founders and all the posters (including any that rip me; taking a beating is part of the game) for such a great site. Glad I found you all!

And I'm sure most of us would be happier if Rogers and Rooker had gone to the Dodgers for Walker Buehler. But that's not how it always works, especially for a mid-market team. It sounds like the fans were always higher on Manaea than the Twins; it's a stretch referring to him as "high-end" (though compared to the Twins staff last year...), and he is an FA after the year. Montas is higher end for sure, and since the A's haven't been able to deal him (to the Twins or the rest of MLB), they probably are asking too much. Sometimes you have to roll with what you can get, and since this is baseball, you can often win with that. Or not win it all after getting one of the best pitchers in baseball (like the Yankees who haven't even won their division with Gerrit Cole). At any rate, the die is cast.

I'm pretty sure we didn't go from "OMG, need another SP!" to "there is no place for a new SP to pitch on this team" in the last week. No starter is fully stretched out yet; Gray has only faced MLB hitters once (though he did mow them down like grass). Given the 16 slots available, it seems like the Twins could easily structure a rotation with a starter (4 innings or X pitches), and a follow-up "middler" (3 innings or X pitches) much like they'd do in spring training. The actual name 'starter' wouldn't really matter the first couple times through, and by then results could dictate the 'final' starting five. ('Final' of course meaning until injury/bad-pitching brought change. So maybe as soon as a week from now.)

I truly hope the Twins don't get down to Joe Smith as anything but an emergency closer. (He'd be my first pick to pitch himself off the team, except Pagan might be edging past him.) Committee of Duffey/Alcala/Duran with a dash of Thielbar crazy sauce would be my guess in the 9th until/unless someone steps forward and seizes the spot. Still love this trade after reflection, but also love that we are only a day away from putting aside pure speculation for reactions to actual games! Play ball!

I love this trade. The Twins get a young and talented SP, and a BP arm (who maybe stays, and maybe doesn't). They give up the 2022 playing year of Taylor Rogers, and a prospect who is now 27, and is still trying to make the jump to major leaguer. Plus, the Twins retain exactly the same chance of re-signing Rogers as they would have had without the trade. Considering the number of SPs on the big league team, I too thought '6 man rotation', but given the short spring training, it might be craftier to basically schedule piggy-backs through the first couple turns, then let performance start to build your basic 5 while keeping everyone stretched out. (Along with the current 5 of Ryan, Ober, Gray, Bundy, Archer; can be added Paddack, Winder, Cotton, and Jax.) I have my own guesses to as to who will pitch themselves off the roster or into more regular bullpen gigs, but I suspect play will make it evident quickly enough, and it does allow for a slower ramp up in a year likely to have a bumper crop of pitching injuries.

For the last spot, though, I'd go with Garlick especially now that Rooker is gone. Unless somebody leaps out on the waiver wire (Upton does nothing for me; once-great player with serious hitting/defense issues relating to chronic back issues. Which don't get better as the years pass.) Nothing exciting about Garlick, but he has his moments, and I believe the Twins expect one of their minor league outfielders to play their way up to the majors. (Contreras, featured on Twins Daily lately, went yard last night.)

The Athletic is reporting Rooker is going with Rogers to the Padres for Paddack and Pagan. So I guess the Garlick/Rooker convo is done. Now... what will be the Twins rotation?

I consider Urshela an upgrade over JD. Speaking of angles of attack, JD swung a potent bat on deteriorating pins that hobbled him badly outside the batter's box (watching him run was painful), and probably means a downward path on defense (when he can even take the field). The salary difference is especially key since it meant they could sign a top shortstop (and in the end, THE top FA SS). Let me see... which would I rather have... Urshela/Correa or JD/Simmons?

I feel pretty good about this group, though my biggest concerns have to do with some of the supposed 'front line.' As you said, Duffey started popping red flags last year, Thielbar was outstanding in 2020, but more of just okay last year (though he looked great in comparison to some of his 'pen mates), and Joe Smith had one of his worst years as a pro and is pretty old. I'm hoping the leashes are pretty short, because the second line looks better than some of the first.

Good piece covering the biggest ??? position on the team (though pretty big 'Q's still remain at corner OF and C). We can all guess, but only real games now can tell the tale on the retreads Archer and Bundy. I feel somewhat better about them than Happ/MattyShoe, because there still seems to be some power in their arms, but... well, we just need to see. I'm still mildly optimistic, but as you say, if it doesn't work there isn't a place for the Falvines to hide.

Great summary! I'm fine with where they are. I'm also optimistic about the team, though I guess that is a relative term since (like mikelink45) I see something around .500 this year. (But something around .500 is much better than last year, so...) You are probably closer to the actual decisions, but I'd still like to see DFAs for Stashak and Thielbar (rather than Rooker) to add Garlick (or somebody else who can play OF, can hit and is DFA'd elsewhere), and start with Moran in Mpls instead of St Paul. The need for a real OF option grows if Kirilloff's knee-tweak today limits his outfield play.

Good article, and catcher is definitely key to success this year. Not just Jeffers who needs to progress as a hitter, but Sanchez, who I think the Twins believe in. Taking them at their word (which probably is not just spin this time), I'd expect something like a 2 (Jeffers) to 1 (Sanchez) split with the majority of Sanchez's at-bats coming at C. (I also believe the Twins mean it right now that DH will rotate to give people not in the field that day some extra ABs; sure Sanchez gets swings, but so do the others on the bench depending on matchup and production.) Have no idea how it will play out, but I guess that is the joy of this week; we start to find out for real!

(Giggle) And I swear I wrote that about Gordon before checking the Strib site and seeing he knocked in 5 today with a 3 run HR, and a 2 RBI triple!