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Rod Carews Birthday

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Everything posted by Rod Carews Birthday

  1. Rod Carews Birthday
    I think THIS is the right question. For me, Maeda only gets about two or three. Mahle about four. The other three guys I roll with a long time.
  2. Rod Carews Birthday
    Ober getting optioned to St. Paul is certainly disappointing, but it is no real surprise and quite necessary given the team’s current roster. One of the other five starters will be either injured or ineffective in short order (this is the nature of pitching!) and he will be starting for the Twins. I would bet on 20+ starts for the Twins from Ober this year (if HE is healthy). I’m soooooooooo happy that we’re not calling up Aaron Sanchez (yet) or Chris Archer. I’m oddly excited about Willie Castro. Every now and then, there is a lightning in a bottle non-roster guy that winds up playing really well for a while at the beginning of the season and I think hat Castro might be that guy. Defensively, he’s certainly very useful and maybe he can do enough offensively that we won’t miss Polanco and Kiriloff so much.
  3. Rod Carews Birthday
    I’d put the odds as follows: Duran to the All-Star team, about 80%. Gallo for 30 HR, about 50%. Joe Ryan as a Cy Young Contender. This would be something that would really propel the Twins team and bode awfully well for the next few years. However, not yet. Maybe. . .20% Buxton in 115 games, about 80%. I would like to add a couple of predictions. Trevor Larnach finds his health, puts up 25 HR and claims a regular starting spot. Carlos Correa puts himself in the MVP conversation with excellent defense, consistently good offense, and outstanding veteran leadership. I don’t really think it’s Buxton and Correa’s team. By the end of this year, it will be Correa’s team, and that’s a very big reason why the team signed him. Max Kepler will continue to frustrate everyone — the fans, the team, and likely Max Kepler.
  4. Rod Carews Birthday
    I think it is reasonable to think that Buxton, based on his numbers from the past three years, is going to be a solid DH to begin the year — probably stronger than anyone else we were going to play there. In the field, Taylor will play an excellent center field, even if he is not a great hitter. However, when we think of Taylor, he’s not replacing Buxton’s bat in the lineup. He’s replacing the bat of the DH who would bat if Buxton weren’t there. Some days that might be a strong hitter, like Miranda, but on plenty of others, that hitter won’t be that much better than Taylor, who is a very long distance from the black hole that Miguel Sano or someone like him would be. I also think Buxton is the new “we signed him to a big contract and now he needs to be Superman” argument that many made about Joe Mauer when he was playing. First of all, Buxton’s contract is for about $15M per year, which he is likely to well-earn, even in a year he isn’t playing 140 games. Second, $15M doesn’t buy nearly as much as it used to. Third, if this results in him playing even 120 games this year, I’m not at all worried about the value the Twins will get from him. Let’s let something go wrong before we search for reasons for problems that haven’t occurred yet.
  5. Rod Carews Birthday
    First of all, anyone who is complaining about “Cheap Pohlads” obviously wasn’t around during the Calvin Griffith ownership years. When Carl Pohlad bought the team he was absolutely a savior for MN baseball. The late 1970’s were PAINFUL. Second of all, it’s a business. Of course they would like to turn a yearly operating profit, just like the hair salon or mechanic shop down the street. Sometimes they will do really well and sometimes it is a bad year. I grew up on a farm and I get that entirely. What everyone (including the Pohlad family) needs to realize is that the big money to be made is when the team is sold for many millions (billions?) more than it was bought for. In the meantime, I’m sure they would like to make a few bucks off of their investment, whether they are promoting their product/putting a good product on the field or not. Are these numbers absolutely accurate? Of course not, because much of this is difficult to quantify. However, this is the best we have and it seems reasonable that one can compare between teams. That’s what the article is about.
  6. Rod Carews Birthday
    You have hit on five guys with a lot of reasons to root for them. I think the most likely candidates are Ober and Larnach. Trevor Larnach has intermittently looked good at the MLB level after being wildly successful during his full seasons in the minors. Now that he’s healthy it seems like he is poised for more success. Ober, who is my number one candidate for a breakout, may start at St. Paul, but I think the chances of all five starters ahead of him being healthy and effective are very slim, so he will get plenty of opportunities to shine. I think he will get 20+ starts with the Twins this year and will have a solid (3.00-3.50) ERA as well. By the way, I’m going to hope for all five of your candidates to breakout! Wouldn’t that be something!
  7. Rod Carews Birthday
    I’m right with you on these predictions. I have faith that the improved pitching can get us to 90+ wins and that the Guardians will be right there with us. I think that ultimately our depth will be the difference. The White Sox couldn’t be less predictable. I think their ceiling is probably 90 wins, but their floor might be 90 losses. I think they will miss Jose Abreu and his magic RBI machine much more than they think they will. Hate to see him go to the Astros though. The Tigers and the Royals are bad enough that I almost find myself rooting for them to win some more games. They could get hot for a few games but there is just no depth there whatsoever. Strikeout #3K should be a nice highlight for the future hall of fame pitcher Zach Greinke, but I’m not seeing the highlight out there for the Tigers. Ouch.
  8. Rod Carews Birthday
    This year's bullpen seems pretty solid on down to about 4 or 5 guys. The back of the bullpen is a little iffy, but that's how we find the guy who's "next" to be good. Predicting how the bullpen will fare I think is much more difficult than the starting rotation. It could be one of the very top ones, but also given the nature of bullpens, could also be one of the worst. Having Duran certainly helps stabilize it, but remember, nobody is a sure thing in pitching. Bullpens are the ultimate in trying to judge small sample sizes. If a relief pitcher has two or three bad outings to start the season (this isn't about Pagan, he was pretty awful for longer than that), they get an ERA of about 8.00 and that looks really bad. Plus pitching in small samples it takes a very long time to get that back under control. Other pitchers can have a consistent decent ERA while still allowing runs to score here and there. Personally, I'd rather have the reliever with an ERA of 3.50 that throws a dumpster fire once in a while and then is lights out rather than a reliever that is "pretty decent" all the time but gives up a run here or there consistently. The former may cost you a game here or there, but the latter will trickle away leads all season long.
  9. Rod Carews Birthday
    It's true. On paper we have arguably the Twins' best starting rotation in memory. Be honest, when was the last time you weren't scared to death when the Twins trotted out their number five starter, or worse yet, the replacement for the number five starter? Being realistic about it, because it's pitching, one of them will spend a large amount of time on the injured list and another one will be mysteriously (or not so mysteriously) ineffective. Now we're down to three of the original five. Bring up Ober and Varland and the rotation is back to being pretty good again (and it could be argued that there is more talent left to tap into at St. Paul). THAT is why I'm extremely optimistic about the chances of competing for the division title and in the playoffs this year. Now let's go play some ballgames!
  10. Rod Carews Birthday
    Great shots! Thanks for putting them out there!
  11. Rod Carews Birthday
    Awesome night for Arraez! I am rooting for him to win another batting title and Lopez to win an ERA title! That's how trades are supposed to work out. It makes it easier and more productive for both teams to do business the next time!
  12. Rod Carews Birthday
    This was a great kick off the season article. Sometimes we as fans let the perfect be the enemy of the good. If after thinking this offseason through, you can't come up for any reason for optimism, then you are very difficult to please. Did they do EVERYTHING I wanted them to do? Of course not, but they have made some solid decisions in the past 12 months that make me believe Twins management is serious about trying to put a contender out there. Do I think that every decision is a perfect one? Nope, but they're working the problem instead of sitting on their hands. Is Rocco Baldelli going to make every perfect decision this year? I'm sure not, but he is a professional manager that is preferable to a lot of other guys out there. (I hear Tony LaRussa is available!). What I think we forget as the season goes on is that (nearly) every other team out there is also trying to field a contender and sometimes certain plans work out better than others. We can all say that we want to be just like . . . .<insert team name here>, but that team doesn't always win either and may have some circumstances that prevent that. Houston has a great team (currently, but definitely not historically), maybe the Yankees do, but we're not them. Which other AL Central team would you like to be? None of those seem obviously better than the Twins. Or would you rather be the Angels? How about the Rangers? I like our chances to be pretty good. I'd love the perfect but I'll certainly take some good! Time to enjoy some baseball!
  13. Rod Carews Birthday
    Figuring out potential relief pictures is an incredibly nebulous process. Bullpens across baseball are filled with failed starters whose stuff plays better in small samples, “mystery guys” who don’t seem to have great stuff but seem to get guys out, and lights out killers who just get up and blow people away. It sounds like Hoffman might have unlocked something, putting him in the first category, but I’m guessing we’ll learn a bit more in the next couple of weeks as he gets more use. If they have some faith that he could be effective, it makes a lot of sense to send Megill to St. Paul. It’s like having an extra reliever (and certainly more flexibility) for little to no investment. Psychologically, I feel better with this than I do with the continuing Pagan fixation, even if Pagan has the better stuff on paper.
  14. Rod Carews Birthday
    This has got to be one of Baldelli’s most difficult calls. Kepler’s great glove gives him a high floor such that he doesn’t hurt the team immensely if his bat isn’t working very well - even at a slugger position, but on the other hand, sometimes the bat gets so bad that the glove just can’t make up for it. He’s obviously the starting RF on opening day, but if things go South with his hitting, I think he’s going to get a lot fewer at bats as the season progresses. There is just too much depth behind him not to try some new players at the position.
  15. Rod Carews Birthday
    I think that Correa is happy, healthy, and comfortable coming into the year, which is already a switch from last year after signing a disappointing (length) contract at the last minute and having a short spring training to get his head, bat, and glove right. As a competitive athlete, he also probably would like to show the world (or at least NY and SF) that they made a big mistake by not signing him. All of those things point to a player who is likely to have a very good season, barring injuries. The Correa at the end of last season would be nice, but I would happily take the one from May and June.
  16. Rod Carews Birthday
    I think that this is the most likely outcome -- assuming no injuries prior to that time. Essentially, Ober "goes away" for a couple of weeks and shows back up when the overall pitching workload gets high, then sticks around for a while. I can't imagine that one of the pitchers wouldn't need a day off by skipping a start by the time we get to May either. No matter how I look at it, I don't see the Twins putting Maeda in the bullpen to start the season. It's possible through innings limits and ineffectiveness he may find himself there, but initially he's likely to start games. Too many effective starters in spring training. . . Wow! I never thought that would be a problem!
  17. Rod Carews Birthday
    Having lived near Chicago for the past almost thirty years, I can attest to the unpredictability of the White Sox with regard to projections, predictions, payroll, motivation, and every other variable you can think of. If sometimes you think that the Twins are maddening, just try figuring out the White Sox. Even in 2005, when they wound up winning it all, no one really saw it coming -- Frank Thomas didn't even play most of the season including the WS. They got hot at the right time and rode some amazing pitching performances through the series. They stayed "OK" for a bit but never really put it together again. The 2021 version that came from nowhere to win the division arrived at least a year earlier than they were expected to and probably overachieved because they didn't know they weren't supposed to be that good yet. Last year, injuries and ineffectiveness crept back in and they were a sub-.500 team (OK, they were actually 81-81, but they seemed worse!). On paper, with everyone healthy, they are pretty dangerous, but over the course of the season and minus Jose Abreu, things could go South pretty quickly. I think that no matter what kind of year Andrew Vaughan manages to come up with, the Sox will miss Abreu's presence in the lineup immensely.
  18. Rod Carews Birthday
    This is a terrific (re-)signing. Virtually no risk. While not a star, he has proven upside and has been effective for the team in the past. If we need him, he will likely be ready and able. I do agree with you. I wonder how many teams would have him active in their bullpen as a lefty right now?
  19. Rod Carews Birthday
    Agreed, although Camilo Pascual was fading hard by the time those guys got really good. Throw Dave Boswell in there in the latter part of the decade as well. It would be amazing to have several guys well over 200 innings like that. It probably made the bullpen a lot better as well. Comparing pitching across eras is pretty difficult though, plus in 1965 (especially) they really did have a murderer’s row of hitters — something like 7 or 8 well above average hitters even though Harmon Killebrew had an off year by his standards. I think an interesting study, although I’m not sure how to do it, would be to compare the really good Orioles rotations of the late 1960’s/early 1970’s with the Braves rotations that had Smoltz, Glavine, and Maddox. Unfortunately, I don’t think the Twins have ever had a rotation that compared to those.
  20. Rod Carews Birthday
    I believe the answer is two.
  21. Rod Carews Birthday
    I think Mahle could get a possible extension for probably no more than 4 years, which means the $$ will need to be pretty big on an AAV basis. Something like 4/$95 might be in the ballpark. Maeda and Gray are too old (and I don't think Gray is enamored with the Twins). If there is no Mahle extension, I could definitely see a qualifying offer for both Mahle and Gray, but probably not for Maeda. The pitcher(s) that I think are truly the most likely candidates are Lopez and Ryan. I think Lopez is young enough and promising enough (and they gave up a lot to get him) that they will want to lock him up for a while. Not sure on $$ because the resume isn't completely there yet, but he probably has more potential than any of them -- maybe 5/$125 (or maybe that's not enough, especially if he is very good this year). Ryan also doesn't have the long standing resume and is under team control for a while, which means they will try to get a more team friendly deal -- more than he would get through his league minimum and arbitration years, but less than true market value. At the end of the day, however, it depends on how much these pitchers want to go to free agency to chase the money vs. how much they would like to remain in MN (see Berrios, Jose). I think the tide may be changing a bit on free agents wanting to come to MN, as the Twins certainly seem to be trying very hard to build a winning team.
  22. Rod Carews Birthday
    As fans we almost always get excessively excited by prospects who show promise in the minors. Sometimes, we get lucky and it all works out, but just as often, we are left to wonder about what might have been if something had just worked out a little bit differently. Being a prospect is an uncertain thing! In Julien’s case, he had a good year and a tremendous AFL season, so we are all assuming that he could just show up at Target Field and rake. I really hope that is true, but I recall a couple of years ago we were all chomping at the bit for Kiriloff and Larnach to become big league power guys and fixtures in the lineup for years. . . still waiting on that. It might still happen, but I think our expectations have been tempered a great deal. All this is to say, relax about projecting the minor league guys into the majors and stop asking where we are going to put Lewis, Lee, Julien, et al, worrying that there won’t be enough spots for all of the star power. Give them more time to develop and we’ll see what it looks like then. Maybe they force their way into the lineup and never leave like Justin Morneau (although his second year wasn’t that great). Maybe something derails their path along the way, like has happened to Lewis (twice!), Balazovic (he could still make it), Kubel, and so many others. Let’s just hope they continue to develop and show up when they are ready to stay on the big club. Let’s get this season started!
  23. Rod Carews Birthday
    Great article Seth. While it sounds like he obviously has plenty left to do, he's young and very projectable. You can't really fake a strikeout rate like that - especially as a lefty. He is definitely a player to watch.
  24. Rod Carews Birthday
    The Twins did him no favors when he was rushed to the majors (out of necessity), and that has slowed his development quite a lot. What they did was find a guy seemed promising but needed two more years of school, hoping he could just skip those classes and succeed anyway. Unfortunately, now it looks like he is being punished and sent back down (after he heals) when he is really just getting in the classes and hopefully finishing the degree before he comes back. I understand why it had to be done, but now they are paying the price. The Celestino situation is EXACTLY why I am NOT clambering for Julien or Lee to be called up to the majors anytime soon. They are both incredibly promising but they need to put in the work and learn in a low pressure situation so that they can be called up, be successful, and stay up in the majors once they get here. Give them time to develop on the farm. Don't waste service time while they try to figure it out on the fly.
  25. Rod Carews Birthday
    Those would be amazing! I think Gallo and Lopez are most likely to actually happen with the Gallen trade the least likely. Buxton having a real season and finding a gem in Julien would be awesome but I'm not holding my breath. My fingers are crossed.
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