Rod Carews Birthday

"Julien is at best one-half the offense player Polanco is" I will quote you. This is preposterous. Look at the overall numbers. "Without Farmer" But they have Farmer. He will probably start against some lefty pitchers. That's like saying "Without Lewis, the Twins would be in trouble at 3rd base". They have Lewis, the statement is moot. Again, I am merely stating that I am pleased with the overall return for Polanco and that his position in the lineup can be reasonably compensated for by the talent currently on the team. We disagree. I'm very OK with that.

That's an interesting question actually. I would say that the fanbase and the media tend to focus on the shiniest objects in the room such that half (or more) of the players in MLB are just "others". That's not a fair assessment of those players, but speaking for myself, there are a HUGE number of players that I just don't know much, if anything, about. It seems like players with an interesting back story or an unusual trait (baseball or personal) are going to get more press than a guy who is just "solid major leaguer". I think a couple of great examples of that would be Donovan Solano and Kyle Farmer -- really solid major leaguers that are a little nameless and faceless to the average fan (unless they play for your team). I think to a lesser extent Jorge Polanco is like that as well to fans of other teams. On the opposite end of the spectrum are guys like Nick Gordon, who many people outside of Twins fandom know about because he comes from a strong baseball lineage, even if he isn't as good a player as those other three guys. I think actual major league front offices have much more information and a much less subjective opinion of many more players than we do as fans, so they can make decisions that we would be uncomfortable making. That being said, sometimes they screw it up. That's when we as fans can call them idiots! I guess the end answer to the question would be "not very satisfied" but that probably sells the incoming players a little short.

Dude. Seriously. I like Polanco. I have enjoyed watching him, but a guy five years younger with team control who puts up better numbers is a better offensive player than he is currently and is more likely than not to be so in the future as they both age. Choosing the SSS of lefty vs. lefty as the summation of Julien's batting ability almost reinforces the argument because that means that something else is dragging down Polanco's overall numbers, since they are lower than Julien's. Julien has work to do against lefties, for sure, but it's certainly not crippling him offensively at this point. He's a good player who is likely to get better. Defensively, "the TV commentators said, during games, hat he should have been scored with errors but the scorers were babying him" doesn't move the needle. He was a bad defender when he came up but his defense improved immensely over the course of the season. That happens all the time with young players. I don't have the stats in hand, but I have seen his season divided such that he was essentially a neutral (average) defender in the last half of his season vs. the first half of his season. Don't misunderstand. I'm not saying he's ever winning a gold glove, but Polanco wasn't winning one either. Julien will likely improve from where he is as he gains experience and a comfort level in the big leagues. Polanco is very unlikely to improve at this point in his career as he ages and loses physical skills. Julien: Polanco: I will agree to disagree here because you will not be convinced, but I would reserve preposterous for "Let's trade Nick Gordon for George Kirby straight up" kinds of comments. In this case, I am merely stating that I am pleased with the overall return for Polanco and that his position in the lineup can be reasonably compensated for by the talent currently on the team.

I will agree with the argument that you can never have too much pitching, but thinking that there’s only one way to experience playoff success is only right until it isn’t anymore. The game is too variable for that to be true. As for the Twins rotation, I don’t think things are so dire. Lopez is widely expected to take another step and become a top fivish pitcher in the league. I think that might be true and that’s great (but it may not happen). Assuming the Twins don’t have a “playoff starter” means that you don’t expect Ryan, Ober, or Paddack to take any type of step forward this year. I don’t think all three will, but I would bet on at least one of them being very good and maybe even two of them. There is your second playoff starter. Will this happen? I don’t know, but the idea is very plausible.

You’re correct. It is speculation from either side, much as the sky was falling last year when the Arraez/Lopez trade happened and everything was great when the midseason Tyler Mahle for prospects trade happened. DeSclafani isn’t a top of the rotation guy but he is needed 5th starter depth and based on last years usage, Topa is likely a Griffin Jax level reliever which is also something we need. The Santana signing doesn’t move the needle much for me but then again neither did last years MAT trade or Donnie Barrels signing, so I’m reserving final judgement. Whether Polanco was needed on this years team is also open to interpretation. I happen to think that Eddie Julien replaces him well in the lineup and in the field at no cost, with Brooks Lee lurking in AAA. Most signs would point to one or both of these two players equating to a Polanco-like contribution or higher. But again, it’s always speculation (or more informed hypothesizing).

Sorry but you make it difficult to respond to your argument in any way. So I won’t. We apparently disagree.

There is probably a 50/50 chance that Polanco will have a good season. If that were with the Twins as full time second baseman, it means far less at bats for Julien, who was clearly better offensively last year while being at least his equal on defense. There is probably a 50/50 chance (or even greater) that Topa will have a good season. A solid setup guy is pretty valuable. There is probably a 50/50 chance that Gonzalez will become a MLB outfielder of some skill, with probably a 10% chance that he will be a star some day in the future. He's a top 100 talent. That makes his chances of at least some success pretty decent. There is probably a 40% chance that DeSclafani will be a serviceable pitcher in the #5 spot. Meh. There is probably a 10% chance that Bowen becomes a serviceable MLB relief pitcher some day in the future. It's a flyer. All of this is to say I think you are overestimating Jorge Polanco's value to the Twins at this point.

That's a terrible idea. He's a substantially worse version of something the Twins already have twice over. Please no.

There are several things about DeSclafani that make him intriguing. The most obvious, of course, is whether he will be healthy or at least mostly healthy this season. That in and of itself could take him back to being a solid starting pitcher. The second is that he possess a four-seamer that is seemingly effective, but that he doesn’t use. Granted, with more use could come less effectiveness, but it is worth a try. Finally, both of these things are without the old “learning a new pitch” like the sweeper. If learning a sweeper was so easy, then every pitcher would do it, so while that is an option, he has two steps before he gets there. As others have said, this will come down to whether DeSclafani can make it happen. Is he ready to change his pitch mix? Can he make some adjustments to his repertoire that will be effective? Will the Twins’ coaches be able to say just the right thing that will click? Those unfortunately are the unknowns, but this does seem to be a worthy path to pursue.

He sounds like a really good baseball player. Hopefully he can get everything to translate as he moves up the ladder and eventually to the Twins. He definitely helps fill an organizational hole of right handed outfield power bats, which is also good. If only he were MLB ready right now. We could sure use one of those!

You’re absolutely correct in saying that DeScalfani in the rotation is not as good as having Gray. However, Gray is no longer on the team. DeSclafani is an excellent depth/floor setting piece that we didn’t have before, and he was basically free. Gonzalez and Topa were the actual pieces in the trade. Topa will fit into the bullpen very nicely and Gonzalez is a very tradable top 100 prospect.

I don't think you can really interpret prospect rankings like that. They are more like "buckets" that break down into relative levels. I would say a top 20 is a little better than a top 50 is a little better than a top 75. . . etc., but the differences between those prospects after the very top level is extremely subjective and volatile. As far as "low 100 types", we only have three that beat that on paper, so it's not something to dismiss easily.

I think Falvey would have made that trade in a heartbeat. It likely wasn't on the table. A trade like that would have required Julien or Lee as the centerpiece, plus likely a pitcher like Festa in return and that price is too high.

I think it is a solid trade. Polanco at his healthiest and best is an excellent player. However, he is aging, less-healthy, less-available, and less of a defensive player than he used to be. Certainly I would have liked to trade for Logan Gilbert or Bryan Woo, but undoubtedly they were asking for more (Lee? E-Rod? Julien?) than the Twins were willing to pay. Polanco is also the most tradable asset the team had given the current infield depth. He's good, but replaceable. DeSclafani - Reasonable fifth starter. Better than Dallas Keuchel and Aaron Sanchez. Better than Happ and Shoemaker. Allows the Twins to move Louis Varland into the Bailey Ober role (or into the bullpen). If healthy, he could pitch 100 innings of decent ball. If not, DFA him. Topa - He's old, but with options. (Caleb Theilbar anyone?) He was very good last year, pitching around 70 innings at an ERA of under 3.00. 155 ERA+. He will be quite valuable if he can duplicate that. Gonzalez - Top 100 prospect. Not a finished product, but solid potential. On paper, he's better than all but three of our prospects, so he can't completely suck. Bowen - He's a throw in, but a real wildcard who sounds like he could be a decent relief arm if things break right. Not bad for a throw in. $$$ - Always fungible. Does this trade make the 2024 team better? Great question, but I would say yes and the key is Topa. He looks to be a reliable arm to slot into the bullpen. The other key is helping to set the floor of the starting rotation by DeSclafani pushing Varland into the sixth starter role. Will they miss Polanco? Maybe a little in the clubhouse, but I think his offensive production will be replaced by some combination of Julien (mostly), Farmer, and Lee (eventually). Nothing against Polanco, I'm a fan. But, Topa and DeSclafani are more useful to this roster than Polanco, so that makes it a decent trade. Let's keep them coming. . .

There is a tremendous amount of potential in #16-20 this year, which bodes well for the strength of the entire system. A few years back this could have been our #6-10. If they can put injuries behind them, there are three pitchers here that have all sorts of potential. The two youngsters seem more typical for this range -- young but off to really great starts in their career. It could be fun to watch this group develop.

Put me in the camp of having plenty of decent options. None are Byron Buxton at his peak performance (likely including Byron Buxton), but there look to be some capable players out there. After Buxton, I would start with Castro but would look to include Austin Martin at the first opportunity. I don’t have much faith in Nick Gordon to have sufficient offensive production to keep the job. I think calling Castro “Astudillo-esque” probably does him a bit of a disservice. Astudillo became popular mostly because of his appearance and nickname of the Turtle along with a few quirky baseball skills, not so much because of his true achievements. While Castro is “fun” because he makes some things happen on the basepaths, he seems to be (so far) a genuine major league contributor that is an excellent asset to the team. That’s actually a lot more fun than a chubby guy with funky hair rounding the bases.

I'm glad that they have caught on with other teams and wish them both the best of luck. Both have the kind of power that doesn't come along that often, but the high price in strikeouts just doesn't make them that useful.

“Regardless of where Varland goes from here, the Twins have an electric arm capable of filling multiple roles, which is a champagne problem.” THIS. Exactly. Varland appears to be a good pitcher who is young and adaptable, and all teams need more of those. I could definitely see him as a starter this year who transitions to the bullpen come September, or if he’s not needed in the rotation, as a 7th/8th inning guy all season.

Nothing was probably too strong, but he never became what he was projected and assumed to become. That may have been my anti-Cubs bias showing through a little, but his career wasn’t that memorable. Excellent for one year and pretty good for two years doesn’t really compare to what Mauer wound up doing.

Fun retrospective Seth. The Twins definitely got it right when they picked Mauer, but it definitely shows the uncertainty at the top of the draft board. What looks really great for a team (Pryor to the Cubs) can wind up being a big nothing in the end. The Twins have had that happen as well so it's nice to see the sun shine on them once in a while.

Great article. I can echo everything in it, particularly the part about going to the museum before or after the ceremonial day. The HOF is really two parts, the "Hall" with all of the individual plaques, which got a little overwhelming after a while, and the history of the game museum exhibit, which is awesome! In the realm of "other things to do" in/near Cooperstown, I would add that the town sits on Lake Otsego, which is very nice - with sailboats on the lake. On the north side of town there is the Fennimore Art museum, and if you drive a ways, there are wineries in the finger lakes region. There is a state park called Glimmerglass that is quite cool with covered bridges, as well as an opera company of the same name, but I'm not sure how much the Venn diagram of Twins fans and Opera buffs really intersects!

Still no. Slightly better projection, but not remarkable enough to justify trading a Royce Lewis.

That was a pretty fun season, even if there were many naysayers at the beginning of the season with him being hurt. He put that to rest pretty quickly, and I remember thinking, “Well, this is great but he can’t really keep this up for the whole season - especially those home runs.” Yes he could. . . and did. Now, if only Buxton would have done that after starting the year injured last season!

I guess the question really is are you actually willing to trade Royce Lewis for a few more innings of a guy who isn’t quite as good as (or at best, similar to) Bailey Ober? I’m not. https://stathead.com/tiny/khcvs

Hunter was a terrific MN Twin -- great fielder, excellent hitter, strong leader. He belongs in the hall of very good, with some consideration (which he is getting) for the Hall of Fame. He won't get in now, and I think probably will not get in via the veteran's committee (or whatever they are calling its current iteration). And that's OK. He was an awesome part of some very good teams and made baseball fun to watch. Not making the HOF doesn't make him less of a player. Bravo for a fine career!