LA Vikes Fan

Maybe that's a better answer, although they have Martin playing SS in AA. Not sure I see "loads" of corner OFs though. Larnach is a question mark after last year. Frankly. so is Kirilloff based on performance to date although that might be injury related. Who else is there? At AAA the other OFs are Cave, Garlick, and Contreras. Two journeymen who have shown they can't be everyday MLB OFs and a guy who might be good but only just showed something last year. AA, we ahve Wallner, Sturgeon and Julien, only one of which is hitting over .200. At the MLB level we have Kepler who doesn't hit much, Celestino who hasn't shown he can hit at the MLB level, an Injured and previously ineffective Kiriilloff, and Larnach who hit .223 with a .672 OPS last year, went to AAA and didn't hit there last year or this year so far. I really wonder if this surplus of corner OFs is real or just a hope.

Would love to trade for Bryan Reynolds. Tried to find a trade on MLB Trade Values. Problem is Reynolds has an 85 rating so short of trading Ober, Ryan and Larnach we can't get there and even that's not enough. have to entice the Pirates with high upside pitching. How about Winder, Sands, Strotman and Larnach for Reynolds?

Nothing like Minnesota in April. Find Your True North. That's why I live in LA. Here it's Find Your True Fruits and Nuts.

Ok, so Kirilloff to the 10 day IL, Larnach up, Cotton DFA'd, Rodriguez up after Alcala on Il and Jax up. Did someone say that Ober went on the IL? Haven't seen that one yet...

Arraez as "a much better hitting Astudillo"? Well said. You have that exactly right.

Arraez is a great hitter against RH pitching, ok against LH pitching (maybe could improve with more ABs against LHs), and a real joy to watch. But he really is a one trick pony. He has no real power and he is brutal defensively, just brutal. I live in LA and was listening the game on the drive home from work when he made the error in the 8th. He also apparently whiffed on a previous play he should have made and missed a third. His defense was the reason the Dodgers had a 6 run inning rather than a 2 run inning and he made the relief pitchers look even worse than they were. The Dodger announcers were polite but they not only questioned the results they questioned his effort saying that on his error he missed the ball by a foot and "didn't give a major-league effort". They actually wondered if there was a lighting issue such that he wasn't seeing the ball because he was so far off on these plays. We've seen this before. He can't really play 3B, SS or LF. I agree with the previous poster on his position, he can only play 2B and there is a little below average. Unfortunately, our second best player plays 2B so he hasn't got a spot in the field. I think Arraez should be the full time DH against RH pitching and sometimes against LH pitching in tandem with Sanchez so he can get better there. He can spell an IF occasionally but not too often. Let's be honest, it's not like we got anybody else to DH who's any good and he provides the only real high OBP bat on the team. At the present time, we appear to have basically a 4 hitter deep lineup when he doesn't play so let's DH him and make it 5 deep. Let's also get Urshela's glove in the field every day at 3B. He can actually play the position. The DH doesn't have to be a power hitter; it's just your best hitter is not playing the field that day. Most days on this team that's Arraez. Arraez as an everyday player in the field? Not on a good team. Arraez as a LH DH who spells IFs on an occasional basis? There's his value on a good team.

Agreed, although I would add Kirilloff into that mix. Hopefully this is just one series and at least one of those 3 will come around quickly because otherwise we have a pretty short lineup. Best bet on that is Sano. Kepler is what he is - a .220 hitter with some power who's a good defensive OF. 8th or 9th place hitter. Kirilloff looks bad at the plate right now and may need some time at AAA to get 4-5 ABs a game and get his swing back after the long injury layoff.

Well that was ugly. I guess with 2 strikes you take chances, but with Correa up next? Hmmm....

Celestino is the only roster position player who hasn't yet played. I would expect him to get a start against the Dodgers since they are throwing 2 left-handers and probably better to have him start against Heaney than against Kershaw. Winder is the only pitcher that hasn't got in but I expect he is the long man available tonight after Bundy. Regarding Kirilloff, we all need to remember that this is a young player without much of a track record coming off a major injury. He looked very good in 2021 for about 100 bats, looked very bad for about 100 bats, and then got shut down. He just hasn't looked comfortable at the plate so far. It's not an 0-12 with a few line drive outs, I don't think he squared the ball up yet. So that may mean it just requires some at-bats and some time. My only point is that it might be better to have those at bats and time in AAA IF there is someone to replace him who might give us more competitive at bats. That isn't likely to be Celestino, but maybe if we play him tonight or tomorrow night we will find out. I still would not be surprised to see the Twins sign Justin Upton and potentially lose Jhon Romero or put Stashack on the 60 day IL.

What am I looking for from Bundy? At least 5 innings, hopefully 6, and 3 or fewer runs. I think we have a less than 50/50 chance of either. I would nominate him as "most likely to be the odd man out when the rotation goes from 6 to 5 in a month", but then there's Archer. Archer is a great cartoon, not such a great starting pitcher.

Thanks for letting me know that. Sounds like the IL strategy doesn't really advance the ball on adding a non-40 man replacement. Sadly, the only OF in St. Paul on the 40 man is Larnach and he's hitting .118 in AAA.

An IL stint for Kirilloff might be an even better answer than just sending him down. If I understand this right, putting him on the IL would allow us to add a free agent or someone on a minor-league contract to the 40 man roster without dropping anyone until the IL stint was over. Kirilloff would then get some rehab time in St. Paul before having to be added back to the 40 man. That would give us a time to either sign a guy like Justin Upton or bring up Garlick, Cave or Contreras without having to lose somebody on the 40 man roster. Sounds like a good plan to me.

Kirilloff has looked bad. Frankly, he's looked over matched. Part of that may be the long layoff from last year's injury. He hasn't really faced live bullets since July, 2021 - Spring Training doesn't really count. Still, it's not just that he isn't hitting, there aren't any signs that he's ready to bust out any time soon. The question is would it be better to send him to AAA to play every day and find his groove. The problem with that is who replaces him. Cave and Contreras are the OFs hitting in AAA, Larnach is not, so its hard to get excited there, Upton is the FA flavor of the week, also hard to get excited. Add to that Kepler can't hit and now you 2 corner OFs who aren't contributing at the plate. Not good. Much as I dislike the alternatives, I think its time to send Kirilloff down to AAA for a month, play him every day until he really gets going, and then bring him back up. I would give Contreras a shot but i suspect that Cave would be the call up. Still, better than watching him flail away up in the bigs. Watch, now he'll get 3 hits today and make me look like and idiot. Ahh, to dream....

While it definitely would help us to have a right-handed hitting Outfielder on this roster, Upton doesn't look like the answer. The problem is, who else is there? Kepler cannot hit left-handed pitching and frankly, right now, Kirilloff can't hit anything. He looks overmatched and may be in need of a trip back to AAA to refine his stroke. Celestino is basically it though in the organization for a RH hitting OF. Garlick didn't hit in spring training and is a lousy fielder, and every other decent outfielder in St. Paul and Wichita hits left-handed. The only RH hitting real infield prospects at either level are Lewis, Miranda and Martin. So Celestino is it in the organization unless we move Miranda or Martin to the outfield and have them try it at the MLB level. Doesn't seem like a good idea and right now Miranda is playing third base and Martin is playing short. Looks like we have three choices, We can keep Celestino on the big club and actually play him, recall Garlick (yuck), or find someone to pick up. Hence, the interest in Upton because it just aren't any other decent RH OF bats out there yet. I'd like to see them play Celestino tomorrow night in place of Kirilloff to give him a chance and clear the latter's head, and then play him again in place of Kepler on Tuesday when the Dodgers pitch Andrew Heaney. Seattle gave us LH starters twice in 4 games and the Dodgers are giving us two in two games. It looks like the book is getting to be throw left-handers against the Twins and half their lineup goes kaput because Arraez sits, Kepler and Kirilloff can't hit lefties, and Polanco is a better LH hitter than RH hitter. Let's find out if Celestino's impressive run in AAA was real improvement because it sure looks like we need someone to fill that RH hitting OF role pretty quickly. If not, we're going to have to try Garlick or Upton.

I don't agree with the idea that Duffy is somehow 67-76 because of his holds in innings other than the 9th, There's a big psychological difference between pitching in the 9th with a one run lead and pitching earlier innings with that same lead. Earlier innings are less tense and psychologically easier to do because your team always has the ability and the time to rally if you don't pitch well. There is a reason that some guys thrive in ninth inning close situations and some don't; it's their ability to handle pressure where there is an air of finality attached to their performance. I think Duffy is a very good setup man, can do a great job in the sixth, seventh or eighth innings, and I'm glad we have him. He does not have the temperament to be a closer based upon his very poor record in that role. I think baseball has become so analytically based that sometimes we forget these are human beings, not robots. You have to take the human element into account. Some players are able to maintain their performance in clutch or pressure situations (no one actually gets better in those situations), and some are not as good at that. A closer needs to be someone who could maintain his performance. Duffy's track record showed that he is not that guy in ninth inning situations. Trying him as a closer might have made sense without considering his emotional makeup but it doesn't when you take that into consideration. The failure to do that is on the manager. That is his primary job. I've been a defender of Rocco but it is getting hard.

Here are two hot takes which I fear might actually turn out to be true. First, this lineup is not very good overall and only decent if Buxton, Correa and Polanco all hit well. The rest of the lineup looks like a wasteland other than Urshela and Arraez and it doesn’t look like we’re going to be able to play both of them the same day. Kirilloff appears badly overmatched and needs a trip back down to AAA, and we already know that Sano is the best a streaky number six type hitter, and that Kepler is simply not a good hitter overall and can’t hit left-handers at all. The rest of the spots are just Hopes and wishes. Moreover, we can’t hit left-handed pitching at all since it effectively takes Arraez and Kepler out of the lineup. That right handed hitting outfielder we were hoping for to be the fourth outfielder? We need that guy now and we need him to play every day either in left field or in right field when a lefty starts. We are way to home run dependent to score runs, bad roster management. The second is that it’s going to take us at least a month or two to find any sort of reliable closer. Duffy is not the answer and was just a bad managerial choice given his track record of 4 out of 13 in save opportunities. But watch, Rocco will give him at least three or four more tries before he does the right thing and starts running Pagán, Alcala, and maybe Duran out there. We will have to find one or two of those three to close games. My overreaction is that this team will be something like 12 - 18 after 30 games, struggle and fail to even get to .500 by the All-Star break, and the hot topic on this board will be who we’re going to get when we trade Carlos Correa at the All-Star break or deadline. I’m following Lewis at SS and Miranda, who is hopefully playing in left field at AAA, and Martin who hopefully is also playing in the outfield in AA. Those guys will need to make a big contribution this year for us to make a second-half run. Final record: 78–84.

While I'm not sure about Urshela at clean up, I like the idea of Kepler hitting 9th. He should definitely be there against LH pitching and I think even against RH pitching since it sets up the top 3 in the order. As for the #4 hole, I would rather see sano there with Kiriloff at #5 and Urshela dropping to #6. Against RH pitching, I would expect to see Arraez in 2 hole with Correa and Polanco dropping back one each, Kiriloff at 5, and Urshela at Dh with Sanchez/Jeffers on the bench.

What ashbury said. We need controllable quality starting pitching. You have to give something of quality up to get that, something like Rogers. The real question is did we get controllable starting pitching in Paddack. I think so IF he isn't and doesn't get hurt. The "small UCL tear" is a little concerning. If that isn't a problem, I think we got a guy who will slot in as a #3/4 starter with an ERA in high 3s to mid 4s who can go 150 + innings a year. and who might be better than that. Plus we got a reliever who should be average and who also could be more. Giving up a quality reliever near the end of his contract is worth that return. Rooker had no trade value since he was on the verge of being waived so we can't count him as "value" lost. Great trade? No. Fair trade? Yes.

I don't see any chance that Ober is going into the bullpen anytime soon. I don't think we have a single starter stretched out to go more than 5 innings, if that. I think we will simply have a 6 man rotation through May as we work through the starters, assuming Archer is stretched to enough to start games. If not, he's the bullpen piece. Ober was brought up from the Minors to be a starter and was very effective in that role with room to grow. Moving Ober to the bullpen would frankly be just be poor roster management. There is no magic to 5 starters, the rules actually allow you to have any size rotation you want. Ober is a picture this team wants to have as a starter for the foreseeable future so that's where he's going to be this year unless he is ineffective. I think we will run a 6 man rotation for the 1st month while we are carrying 16 pitchers and then, and only then, will we be making some changes or thinking about moving anyone to the bullpen from these top 6.

Based on your analysis that the separation between Paddack and our other 6–8 starters isn't significant, I understand your concern. I'm kind of assuming that the 6-8 starters for 2022 are Winder, and some combination of Smeltzer, Balazovic (IL), Sanchez. Henriquez and Megill since that's who seems to be starting at AAA. Maybe in 2023 you could add Strotman, SWR, Varland, and Canterino, who are opening at AA, but probably not this year. If you accept that list, where I would disagree as I think Paddack is significantly better than anyone on that list except for Winder and maybe SWR or Caterino, both of whom are probably a full year away. So I think the play here is twofold. This year Paddack adds starting pitching depth that we will undoubtedly need given the 5 starters we have. I would expect both Winder and Paddack to get a minimum of 10 to 15 start each if only for injury and innings limits. That assumes everybody's reasonably effective and I think the odds on that with Bundy and Archer in the rotation are not real great. I think next year Bundy and/or Archer are gone, Winder and Paddack are in the rotation. So this year he's needed depth and the expectation next year he is in the rotation every 5th day. Now all of that can go south if he gets hurt or is ineffective so there is risk. Is that risk worth one year of Taylor Rogers (I think it's a fair assumption that he would not be re-signed by the Twins once he hits the open market)? I think so but recognize that reasonable minds can differ.

The issue here is how one evaluates Paddack. Rooker for Pagan is a solid win for the Twins. If Patick is what he was in 2019, Paddack for Rogers is a win for the Twins. Starters are worth more than relievers. If Paddack is what he was in 2021, FIP notwithstanding, it’s a clear win for the Padres. As with many things, I think Paddack is going to turn out to be somewhere in between those two years, essentially a number 3/4 starter who gives us 150+ innings a year with an ERA from the high 3s to the low 4s. I think that means that the Padres win that end of the trade and it winds up about even overall given the different years of control. I don’t like losing Rodgers. Still, three years of Paddack could actually be a very good thing If he turns out better than I am thinking and a pretty good thing if he hits the mark I’m anticipating. In short, we improved the rotation at the expense of the bullpen and I’m OK with that.

Marisnick might be what they need short term as a good fielding RH OF, except he is a lousy hitter - .216/.286.385 (.671) for his career. I don't know if he has good splits against lefties to help platoon with Kepler in right. Still, he's a better fit for what this team needs than wither Garlick or Rooker. My guess is that he or someone like him will fill the last spot on the roster.

Over/under at 83. A lot of IFs need to come true to hit more than 85. I predict 84-78, playoff contention but no playoff spot, and Correa is one and done.

Upton might very well be worth a look, especially if we consider our other options. If we go on ST performance, neither Rooker (.063/.211/.125) or Garlick (.037/.161/.037) should be in the MLB discussion, and maybe not even in the "should we care if they stay in the organization" discussion. I know ST isn't the best indicator always but for guys fighting for a roster spot they are sure stinking up the joint. If they can't handle the make the team in ST pressure it's hard to see how they will handle the pressure of playing games that actually matter. Also, by the way Jax (13.50 ERA), Velez (27.00) and Romero (6.75) gave up 9 earned runs (6 by Jax) in the last 3 innings to cost us the last ST game. I don't care about the game but I just hope those 3 are not on the MLB roster on Opening Day (although I guess Romero might be). Sheesh. I think there is a better than 50/50 chance that out RH hitting 4t OF is not on the team right now but will be Upton or someone grabbed on waivers from another team. Rooker gets waived for the 40 man spot and probably gets through (not a big deal if lost) and Garclick is assigned to the AAA team or released. By the way, I think this is the right answer.

Sounds like the saw Godoy and decided he wasn't the LH hitting catcher they need, so they moved on to Cisco. Better pedigree, but not much performance at the plate. The 2nd/3rd/AAA insurance LH hitting catcher carousel may just keep spinning for awhile. And who knows, Godoy may wind up in St. Paul or Wichita if he liked us and we liked him enough. A little scary though, because it now appears that Sanchez will catch at least 2 days a week. I think it's Garlick over Rooker on merit. I'm guessing that the Twins will wait until the last second to run Rooker through waivers and hope that he gets by in the crush of waived players in a day or so. Not a big deal if he doesn't since he only fits on a bad team roster like Oakland or Baltimore. Anyone else will just have to waive him again in a month. Still, the extra 2 guys until May 1 might give a team a spot to stash him and see what they got. Finally, I'm a little surprised that Smeltzer didn't make the club given his ST performance. I guess the Twins have decide to make him a starter in AAA, stretch him out, and have him be the 7th or 8th starter this year. I'm assuming Winder is starter #6, Duran is now in the bullpen for at least a season, so who's #7? Smeltzer may fit in there over Strotman, Balazovic and Sands, at least for now. We will go through at least 8 or 9 starters so I see Smeltzer getting 5-10 starts this year, more if he's effective. Gray is the only 160-180 IP guy in the rotation now, if even him, so there will be plenty of starts to go around.