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AlwaysinModeration

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  1. For as fast as he is, he’s exceedingly cautious.
  2. The Twins really excel when Buxton is doing well at the plate as well as roaming the OF. The Twins sure could use another player in double digit homers.
  3. I will mark down one vote for 0% chance. It’s true, Cleveland could catch or pass Minnesota by August 1. That is definitely within the realm of possibilities.
  4. Just speculating on the chances the Twins manage to trade for Trevor Bauer. He’s an iconoclast, does his own thing, spent years working with Driveline baseball, has a million pitches and lots of unique drills and stretches, and insists that he will be going year by year for contracts. Cleveland is extremely hot right now and is looking to hunt the Twins down. Bauer would be a big part of that chase. And of course trading within the division means the Twins would potentially spend years facing some of their best prospects playing for Cleveland. But, but, but - Derek Falvey has a really close connection with Bauer. That was the source of the Indians trading for him from the Diamondbacks in the first place (where his newfangled ways weren’t appreciated.). He hugely embraces, and really, has been at the vanguard, of new approaches to pitching, strength training, tunneling, improving velocity, etc. He says he was an average athlete who through persistence and video and repetitions and creativity and science created himself into a great pitcher. I can’t imagine that Falvey wouldn’t love to get Bauer back on his team, and I am sure Wes Johnson would love to work with him and talk shop. He’s 28.5 years old, eligible for one more year of arbitration. He’s posted 16 WAR in his career, including 3+ the last two, and increased his K% the last three years. What are the chances he is a Twin by August 1, and what would the Twins need to give up to land him?
  5. I agree with Brian / Stringer that defensive positional flexibility has been an important part of the team’s success this year. Two points I would add to this discussion. 1. In addition to defensive flexibility, I think that Falvey and Levine have done a good job of trying to upgrade every spot on the roster they possibly could. This has resulted in a deep roster that Rocco can use successfully. In the past, the 23-27 guys on the roster were really marginal, and it never felt like Ryan was trying to get anything better than mediocre with those fringe roster spots. 2. In addition to “defensive positional flexibility” and “maximize every roster spot”, the third tenet I am seeing emerge is “ability to put bat on ball.” I was thinking about this when Buxton botched the suicide squeeze play. He’s way down the list of players I would want doing that. When you look at the roster, you see Astudillo clearly at the top, followed by Arraez, Polanco, and Rosario. Those four guys have elite contact skills. I think that skill is almost becoming underrated in the age of launch angles and strikeouts. But come playoff time, I think the ability to put the bat on the ball becomes more valuable. (Also makes me think Kirilloff might have a better future with the club than Lewis.)
  6. Agreed that they should be willing to spend that $1.2mm overage. What’s strange to me about it is that, let’s say, they had a slightly higher pick, or an extra comp pick, totaling $1.2mm. I can’t imagine them having any problem spending that amount. That overage should just be considered a part of their pool, in my opinion.
  7. Ok, I concede that saying it was a 20% chance of a wild throw (which includes, mostly, deflecting off of Buxton; it almost happened on that play) is probably too high. But I still think there was 10% or less chance that he is thrown out. Gallo threw the ball 94.7mph, it bounced once and was caught literally on Buxton’s side, and even with all that, he still was out by only a fraction. (To me, if the ump calls him safe, there isn’t enough evidence to overturn it.) That was a highly unlikely out. I agree the risk of ending the inning was a huge downside, and I also agree that the advantage gained was small. But let’s say that the throw is six inches to the left, hits Buxton’s shoulder, he scores, and they go up 3-1, and go on to win the game. It was the same decision. Would you be harping about his awful decision then, or would you be applauding his aggressive play? I’m still not arguing he made the right decision. I’m just saying it wasn’t as clearcut as you contend.
  8. I can see that you feel strongly that it was the wrong decision, and I respect that. However, I don’t think it’s as clearcut as you say. There were three possible outcomes: a) thrown out safe c) safe, ball gets away Figuring out the likelihood of each is what you have to figure out. Just speculation, but my guess is: 10/70/20 So 10% chance the inning ends, 70% chance of a run score, runner on 3rd, and 20% chance of two runs scoring. Then you also have to figure out what percentage of the time he would score from third with two outs when he wouldn’t have scored from second; wild pitch or infield hit. I know the rule don’t make the third out at third. I just don’t think the decision was as definitively poor as you say. The percentages could make it pretty close.
  9. Buxton is safe at third 9 times out of 10 on that play...but it cost them the winning run, unfortunately. Incredible throw, bounced right into the glove on his shoulder. Good play and incredibly lucky were the only way it results in a double play with no run scoring.
  10. You forgot to mention that Rodney’s relief appearance was to preserve a 2-0 lead, which was provided by a Brian Dozier two-run homer. The Nats are 27-11 since May 23, in the NL wild card spot and only 6 back of Atlanta. Any dreams of trading for Scherzer (who struck out 11 and stole a base yesterday) are looooong gone.
  11. That was a wild game. Did not expect the Twins to win that one. Was also surprised they overturned that tag at second base, though he got in there.
  12. While it’s kind of crazy that there are 20+ people running for the democratic nomination, it is refreshing. No one is a forgone conclusion. It’s a wide-open race, and the diversity and overall quality of the field is quite impressive.
  13. I only watched the second debate. I was extremely impressed by Harris throughout the debate, not just on the exchange with Biden, and the moment where she silenced the bickering children with her line about “America doesn’t want a food fight”, but consistently throughout. (She also quieted the bickering candidates and moderators when she said “as the only black person on stage, allow me to address that.”) She struck me a smart, poised, experienced, personable and charismatic. She connected in a way no one else on stage did, from my vantage point, as I watched. I was pleased to see that view was pretty universally shared in the post-debate coverage. Her polling numbers have doubled in some early post-debate polls. To me she looks like an extremely strong candidate. (Biden and Bernie look like they are past their expiration date.). My question is this: why is “her prosecutorial record” viewed as baggage that is going to hurt her? Obviously I need to (and will be forced to) learn more about some of the potentially distasteful and/or objectionable hard stances she took as AG. However, as a candidate from a liberal state with very progressive policy stances, it seems to me like having a tough as nails background should be a positive. “Prosecuting the case against Trump” and being extremely tough can only help her. Coupled with the fact that she immediately had social media fake account bots taking birtherism “she’s not really black” shots at her (during the debate, retweeted by Don Jr!), makes me think she is a formidable candidate - who is going to win.
  14. Between Duran, Cavaco and Balazovic, some serious upside. No idea what the future holds for any of them, but hopefully a) it is with the Twins and all three of them reach close to their potential.
  15. Nice to see Lewis warming up. Hope Allen puts up a string of scoreless innings.
  16. Although my proposal included two MI. How about instead: Brusdar/Javier/Jeffers/Enlow (Or Smeltzer) Or Brusdar/Duran/Arraez/Wade I think it would be possible to get Thor without giving up Lewis or Kirilloff. The Twins system is quite deep, and if you come up with 4 players who are top to mid, I would have to think it would be a pretty attractive package. I don’t think this would get it done, but what about a package of players who have already debuted with the Twins? Romero/Arraez/Smeltzer/Tortuga/Wade
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