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Danchat

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Everything posted by Danchat

  1. Danchat
    Rocco's version? There is no way the front office is letting him run his own version of analytics, it's clear to me that he's executing their plan, as if they weren't happy with what he was doing, they would force him to change it up... similar to how Molitor got the can, with one of the reasons being letting his starters stay in too long (in their eyes). Exactly, this is a Falvine problem, not just a Rocco one. Having the current front office hire a new manager is likely going to have them find another analytics-driven manager, which I'm sure everyone would be stoked about! And the problem is that Rocco may not be allowed to sent him out there more than 70 pitches, especially with how Ober's innings were managed last year.
  2. Danchat
    What spreadsheet decision lost the game today? The back end of the bullpen lost the game, in baseball that's sometimes going to happen even when Jax/Thielbar/Duran were pitching well up to this point. And spreadsheet or not, the lineup is decimated by injuries.
  3. Danchat
    Hasn't Arraez graded well defensively at 1B? I'll pass on Hosmer, he's a below average bat for a 1B and getting old, and he does not have 16 HRs, he's at 8 and hasn't hit at least 16 since 2019... veteran prescence is nice, but it hasn't helped the Red Sox (he's hitting .611 OPS for them and injured now). So you'd rather the Pohlads sit on the money? It's not like we've lost many/any significant internal free agents in recent years.
  4. Danchat
    I was hoping they would prove that the 2021 was a fluke - I didn't expect any success in the playoffs, but if I were to know how bad this division was ahead of time, I would have expected us to win it. The initial promise was 'sustained competitivity', and I don't feel like that has been attained. We've gone off the rails since a successful 2019-20 stretch, and even during then this team wasn't competitive at all in the playoffs. It feels like we're miles from being our 2019 squad, which already wasn't good enough.
  5. Danchat
    Paddack not pitching in 2023 is the most likely result, though it's worth noting that athletes can return from an ACL tear in around 9-10 months, so I wouldn't rule out Lewis being good to go by some point in the first half of the year. I just have no hope long-term that this team will be able to avoid injuries - both the hitters and pitchers have been constantly plagued by it the past couple years and the minor league system isn't faring a whole lot better.
  6. Danchat
    This offense is suddenly good at scoring garbage time runs - what, is Cleveland playing prevent defense or something?
  7. Danchat
    Balazovic has a long ways to go, even with this step in the right direction. He's got to prove 2022 was an outlier with a hot start next year. I wouldn't mind getting Wallner up to the majors with some of our bats cooling, I'd like him over Cave and over Garlick vs RHs.
  8. Danchat
    I don't know how anyone could watch this team the past 6-8 weeks and come to this conclusion... they're clearly not built to go on any sort of run. They are barely treading water in the worst division in baseball! Not to mention how horrifically they play when they face the likes of the Yankees/Dodgers/Astros. If they do reach the postseason, it's probably the weakest team they've reached it since... I don't even know when. Heck, I'd take the 2017 squad over this one. They're poised to add on to their playoff loss streak if they do sneak in.
  9. Danchat
    2/3 of the 2020 season is 40 games... yeah, that's nice to get out of a minor league free agent, but it's nothing to write home about. Pretty telling if that's one of the primary success stories for the FO in 6 years. But we've been saying that for years, and yet this season we've had to trade for Gray, Paddack, and Mahle, and had to sign Bundy and Archer... and we'll probably need to add more for next year as well. As for the current pipeline... it's Varland and Woods-Richardson, and then not much on the horizon. MLB.com's last update placed the Twins farm system at #23 and I agree that it's in the bottom 10. There's certainly no starter prospects who profiles as a future ace, which is something we've been hoping that the new regime would be able to find since Cleveland developed the likes of Clevinger, Bauer (yes, I know he was traded) and Bieber.
  10. Danchat
    Bundy still gave up 9 hits and was lucky to only let in 2... buyer beware whomever signs him to a deal next year. I would wager a guess at another one year deal with a bigger price tag.
  11. Danchat
    I'd take him on the bench over Caleb Hamilton, that's for sure.
  12. Danchat
    It is a massive leap, but we're talking about replacing Cave/Beckham with Julien, not doing something like replacing Kepler. Cave/Beckham have nothing to offer at the MLB level and there is a small chance that Julien could, and putting him on the 40 man won't be a problem. It's more a comparison of replacing a practice squad/backup QB who is starting with a rookie, since the starter is hurt.
  13. Danchat
    Can Julien play OF? Why not just promote him to the majors straight away, and if he struggles, then send him to AAA. We need something and he's hot, and will be added to the 40 man before December... might as well over the likes of Beckham and Cave!
  14. Danchat
    Well said, I was going to say something very similar. It's more likely he does not achieve what Berrios did over his career, but it's within the realm of possibility.
  15. Danchat
    Megill also had some fairly awful numbers before this year, so it's worth a shot to see if Jewell can be groomed into something like him. I'd rather give him a shot then the likes of Thornburg/Minaya/etc.
  16. Danchat
    I had it in my notes that Varland threw softer, I didn't realize he was hitting those numbers consistently. Maybe that gets him bumped up to #3. ? When it comes to Twins pitching prospects, always have low expectations, since most of the time they will not be exceeded. I'd love to get my hopes up but I have a hard time justifying it.
  17. Danchat
    Methinks Varland has a ceiling as a #4 starter, but the problem is that our rotation will already be full of those types next year... but of course, injuries will happen and he'll get a shot then. I'd keep him as a starter and experiment with the others (primarily Sands) to see if they can work as relievers.
  18. Danchat
    I guess we don't have many pending free agents (though I wouldn't mind re-signing Fulmer), but still, Contreras would be an option if we're not getting Correa back. There are several ways to spend that $35M and I'm not convinced dropping it all into Correa is the right call, but it may not be the wrong one either.
  19. Danchat
    Our strategy of not paying pitching the past two years hasn't worked out... add in signing a catcher and potentially extending any pending FAs, and there will be plenty of ways to use that $35M.
  20. Danchat
    IMO he's been worth more around $20-25M so far. Great to have at SS, but his bat has been streakier than I expected. I wouldn't be shocked if things clicked going down the stretch and his bat heats up... but I'd also rather not be the team that gives him a 8 year deal. I'd rather put that money into other positions and rely on Lewis and Palacios for the future of the position. But I wouldn't hate to have Correa opt back in for 2023.
  21. Danchat
    There is a key in the spreadsheet that reads: * = HR → = K ~ = BB That refers to the hitter/pitcher's rating check when it comes to HRs, Ks, and BBs. I didn't include this one, though: ** = If there are runners on base, they advance 2 bases instead of 1.
  22. Danchat
    For anyone who is interested, here is the spreadsheet with the Hitting and Pitching Master Cards, along with how to convert player stats to Strat-O-Matic ratings. Strat-O-Matic Baseball Hitting and Pitching Card.xlsx
  23. Danchat
    Usually the strikeout takes precedence over the hit/HR since the idea is that if the hitter is able to make contact, then the hit could vary, but if the hitter doesn't make contact then it's a strikeout. There aren't any HR/K options on the hitting card, but the pitching card has some examples where the K comes first before anything else. Well, nowadays if you want to buy a new season of cards it's $50 plus shipping, and if you want the latest/current season you will have to wait months until they're ready to be purchased. Yes, the original cards are absolutely superior to my machinations... but for my younger self, this was the best way to do it.
  24. Danchat
    Sorry folks, the bullpen is not a strength. You can't hide 3 guys on a consistent basis. Yes, I don't agree with bringing Pagan in during the 6th inning in a 1-0 game, you can put that on Rocco. But he also can't use his best arms in every game, so using the likes of Megill and Duffey in this one were unavoidable. The coaching staff has got to figure out how to get some of these arms in the minors working in the majors or we're going to keep seeing the backend of our pen getting wrecked often. Feels like this might be it for Duffey's career as a Twin, or at least it should be. It was a good run, but it's time to move on. Pagan will probably get more chances because he's this year's Colome, but at some point you have to realize that he's been one of the worst relievers in baseball for the past 5-6 months of baseball and move on. You can only wait for the positive regression for so long.
  25. Danchat
    Problem is that most of them are injured - and Balazovic is having a horrid year. Varland and Raya are doing alright but that's about it.
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