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Linus

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Everything posted by Linus

  1. Linus
    People’s impression of Julien is of the 2-3 months at the end of the 23 season. It was a fluke: the league had never seen his unusual hitting profile and he had a babip of 373. The league adjusted and we saw what that looked like in 24. Now he is going to have to adjust. Due to his swing style I am skeptical he can do it. Since is not a good fielder he isn’t going to get playing for any reason other than mashing the ball. I don’t believe Julien will contribute anything significant going forward. I hope I am wrong.
  2. Linus
    Lewis did not have Tommy John surgery.
  3. Linus
    Wow, this and 50 cents won’t get you a cup of coffee.
  4. Linus
    I’ve always enjoyed her company.
  5. Linus
    These are interesting numbers. Thanks for compiling them. Of course they can be parsed a bunch of different ways like lack of situational hitting that would push them over the top. I would also guess if we looked at those games we would find a mistake on the bases or in the field that cost us that all important run.
  6. Linus
    I’m glad they are trying something different. They have not been fundamentally sound in the field or on the bases for a long time and it never got any better. Maybe this is acknowledgment of the problem.
  7. Linus
    This is spot on. I’ve never had faith in defensive metrics for this reason. In my own feeble mind I view fielders fitting in to one of three buckets: 1 - exceptional or difference maker. Not many of these. Perhaps 5-10% of the players. 2 - bad or detrimental. Guys that cost you occasional games because their defense is just bad. This category has maybe 10 - 15% of the players. Then we have adequate or competent. This category has 75 - 85% of all players. Obviously some differences within a group this large but not enough to be dissimilar over the course of the whole season. This little process is by position so it’s possible a guy drops down a position and goes from the bad bucket to the ok bucket. To my SABR friends there is nothing scientific about this - just observation. I’m curious how other people view the percentages I assigned. Too high? Too low?
  8. Linus
    I’ll add on here a little. Good pitching means more lower scoring games where a defensive mistake is even worse. Hopefully the defense can be competent.
  9. Linus
    Or maybe with a year of experience this year he won’t be sun-par next year. That wasn’t so hard was it.
  10. Linus
    Can’t see him riding in the bullpen unless he is lights out and elbows start blowing up. If they like him this spring I could see them working out a trade.
  11. Linus
    Certain topics, certain posters can be an acquired taste 🙂
  12. Linus
    No question-the bats will make the decision.
  13. Linus
    You could win a bar bet or two with some of those numbers
  14. Linus
    I agree. And you know what Paddack might still be helpful. It would not be shocking if we saw a starter injury in spring training or early in the season and then we will be happy we have some depth. I like Festa but Mathews and beyond are complete unknowns from a perspective of big league performance.
  15. Linus
    Yep. The idea that Paddack is just going to parked in a closet somewhere is silly. He will be a starter until he is hurt or traded. At this point there isn’t even room for him in the pen. And I’m not a fan either.
  16. Linus
    So what are you going to do with Paddack and his $7.5 million guaranteed contract? Cut him?
  17. Linus
    As always keep running him out there and see what he can do. Perhaps he ends up being a long man in the pen. If his max outing would be 3 innings he could juice the fastball a little. This is a perfect example of what many posters have advocated: take a decent starter who may struggle in the bigs and proactively make him an investment in the pen.
  18. Linus
    Thanks for these articles as it’s interesting to get a more in-depth look at the prospects. I particularly liked the more objective analysis. Amick is a real lottery ticket in that he will end up at first or DH so he is going to need to really step it up as a hitter. He does have power so that is your first criteria for those spots. The Twins should move him to first right now so that if he does hit he may be able to offer competent defense at first. Good luck to him and hope he starts mashing.
  19. Linus
    And again……
  20. Linus
    Keep him healthy and challenge with AA hitters to start the season. Assuming health and success move him to AAA in June. If he succeeds there he is next man up for the Twins in either role. I don’t care if he can only go 3-4 innings as a starter tell one of the 15 expendable arms that the first guy to throw two inning competently gets a piggyback job. If it’s in the pen that is fine too. If he stays healthy he can start next year. If his talent comes through then you figure out a way to get him big league innings and if you are so rigid in your thinking that you can’t do that then you need to be replaced.
  21. Linus
    This is from memory so chime in if I’m wrong but it seemed like Royce’s throwing problems were primarily concentrated mid- August to mid-September or so. Don’t recall him struggling with the arm before that although the action on his throwing looks forced at times, not athletic. It’s almost like he is trying to throw like C4 and its not comfortable. Julien has lots to prove on both sides of the ball. I’m not giving up on him but not counting on him either. Start him in St. Paul and see what he can do. I would also have him playing a lot of first base. i believe Lee will be fine at second with the glove but has to prove he is a MLB hitter. He might have to start in St. Paul which means your starting second baseman is Castro which is fine. I’m on record as saying Miranda should be playing first. If you are going to be sub-par then give the experience to a guy who will be here next year.
  22. Linus
    Paddack will be in there as he is under contract. Sim should be the choice even though Festa has more upside Sim gives us a better chance to win the first part of the season. As we know injuries will solve this problem soon enough.
  23. Linus
    Especially that most look they have more upside than Varland.
  24. Linus
    Well isn’t it on us to not go for that crap? When was the last time you read a critical piece on a Twins prospect on this site? Most of the time the info provided on the prospect profiles (which I enjoy very much) does not mesh with independent scouting reports. The funny thing is posters will talk about “the Twins” talking up prospects which I rarely hear the FO do. It’s all fan stuff going nuts over their next perceived savior.
  25. Linus
    Ive seen scouts say that top level D1 baseball is roughly equivalent to A ball or even A+ ball (high A doesn’t make sense to me). Who knows how accurate that is but certainly guys succeeding at high D1 are far more advanced than high school players. I couldn’t agree more with the rest of your post. It happens so frequently that it should be common knowledge.
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