Nick Nelson

You can't do it without your core. No amount of managerial savvy or front office maneuvering can offset the devastating impact of a foundational core that simply doesn't show up. That will go down as the lasting epitaph for the 2022 Minnesota Twins, who were officially eliminated from division contention over the weekend. Image courtesy of Charles LeClaire, USA Today Sports So: the front office. They've had more than their fair share of missteps, and it's natural to focus on underwhelming acquisitions like Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer, and Emilio Pagán. But there's a dirty little secret: their two biggest moves of the offseason paid off handsomely. Minnesota traded its best young pitching prospect for a frontline starter in Sonny Gray to stabilize the top of the rotation in the absence of José Berríos. Gray, despite missing time on a few occasions, came through with an excellent season, posting a 3.08 ERA over 119.2 IP while leading all Twins pitchers in fWAR (2.4). By investing modestly in pitching and clearing out Josh Donaldon's salary, the Twins were able to acquire the top free agent on the market late in the offseason. That move also has been successful – Carlos Correa has put together a customarily excellent year, leading the team overall in fWAR (4.1) while slashing .289/.365/.468 through 128 games. True to his rep, Correa's been stepping up his production here in the stretch run. The idea was that those contributions would be meaningful because he'd be melding with a greater veteran core to lead the charge for a contending team. Correa wasn't supposed to carry the load single-handedly, as he mostly has been throughout the second half. He was supposed to be combining powers with the likes of Byron Buxton, Luis Arraez, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler and Ryan Jeffers. Among position players who are still here, those five led all Twins in fWAR between 2020 and 2021. They are homegrown talents the organization has been cultivating for many years. Three are under long-term contracts – the only extensions this front office has handed out to inherited players from the previous regime. All are in the heart of their prototypical primes, with ages ranging from 25 to 29. These were the building blocks. They've earned that standing. And you know what? The plan was working for a while. As recently as July 13th, the Twins were eight games above .500 at 49-41, and 4 ½ games up in the AL Central. By that point, the five players mentioned above had combined to be worth 10.3 fWAR, and the first two – Buxton and Arraez – were days away from appearing in their first All-Star Game. Since then, the Twins have gone 25-38, with all five combining for 1.6 fWAR in well over a third of the season. That includes 1.2 fWAR from Buxton, who somehow managed to put up .275/.370/.513 in 23 more games before succumbing to his knee and hip injuries – meaning the other four franchise staples have collectively been barely above replacement level over a prolonged stretch of the season where the team experienced a 15-game freefall in the standings. What more is there to say? Yes, injuries are the main headline of this season and they certainly played a big role in the drop-off from this group, but all that aside: the core came up woefully short when it counted most. Again. So the question is: where do we go from here? The front office's strategy was structured around supplementing this tenured nucleus to make a push in 2022-23, while waiting for the next wave – Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, Austin Martin, Brooks Lee – to hopefully take center stage. But none of those players can really be counted on heading into 2023, for various reasons, so the Twins might need to consider making some short-term adjustments. Max Kepler stands out as the clearest candidate to be displanted. He presents quite the conundrum, under contract for one more year at $8.5 million (with a $10 million team option for 2024). On the one hand, he was clearly one of the single biggest culprits in the Twins' implosion, slashing a Sandy Leon-esque .179/.241/.226 since the All-Star break with a negative WPA. Despite showing flashes of greatness at times, Kepler has made a habit out of not showing up for the Twins when they need him. He's a career .056 hitter in the playoffs, with one hit in 18 at-bats. He's been at his absolute worst this year when the team has been forced to rely on him heavily amidst a barrage of injuries. On the other hand, Kepler still has undeniably intriguing traits. He remains an elite defensive right fielder. Before completely unraveling in the second half, he appeared to be on his way to an excellent year, pacing the team in fWAR with 1.6 for the first two months. It's reasonable to think that the new defensive shifting limitations will be positive for his hitting results. And even here in what's clearly been the worst season of his career from a production standpoint ... Kepler's measurables via Statcast are still really, really good: Personally I feel ready to move on from Kepler despite all of the above, especially with Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, and Matt Wallner all on hand as promising young RF options. The $8.5 million owed to Kepler could be better used elsewhere, and perhaps he'd benefit from a change of scenery as his game stagnates here in Minnesota. The redeeming qualities of his profile make it likely that some team will be open to taking on Kepler and his relatively favorable contract. The Twins might actually be able to get some value in return, although the 29-year-old's bottomed-out stock position doesn't help. Odds of Kepler being traded this offseason could probably be set at around 50:50. Everyone else is much less likely to move. The Twins could possibly find a suitor for Arraez or Polanco. Their contractual situations are even more team-friendly than Kepler's – Arraez has three years of arbitration ahead, while Polanco is owed $7.5 million next year followed by two team options. But to me, the backup options behind both of them are less compelling, and their impact is less replaceable than Kepler's. I don't find my faith in either shaken to the same degree. Jeffers won't be traded, since he's the sole major-league catching depth in the organization. Where he's concerned, the key decision – as Gary Sánchez heads to free agency – is whether the Twins should remain committed to him as their 1A catcher, seeking out a León-esque caddy for the minor timeshare. I'm not sure Jeffers has shown the ability or durability to be viewed as a cornerstone at the position, and at age 25 it's hard to project a lot of additional upside. The Twins will have a lot of spending money available this offseason if they're unable to retain Carlos Correa, with no especially obvious places to spend it. That is, unless they decide to set their sights on top free agent catcher Willson Contreras and completely reshape their future behind the plate. These are the kinds of pivots that need to be on the table as the Twins re-evaluate their fundamental makeup of a roster that has now failed to get it done in back-to-back seasons. View full article

Note: I updated the story to remove the erroneous reference to Lewis hugging Hamilton. Thank you to a reader for pointing it out! When you don't have an editor it is nice to have an audience that can quickly fact-check you. Anyway, point still stands. Lewis is that guy.

When you talk to people about Royce Lewis and what makes him special, you will invariably hear about his intangible character and leadership qualities. While difficult to quantify, there is undoubtedly value in having the 'it' factor. Even in another season wrecked by injury, the former No. 1 overall pick is finding ways to show up. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker, USA Today Sports In a parallel dimension of the multiverse – where there was no pandemic-ruined season, no ACL tear suffered on a freak offseason incident, no ACL re-tear suffered on an outfield wall collision – Royce Lewis would already be an established MLB player. He finished 2019 in Double-A before all that went down. He's a big-league talent, as we saw in a limited glimpse this year. Alas, just as he was getting going, calamity struck and Lewis had another season wiped out. He never pouted about it. And here as this lost season winds down, it's been noticeable to me how present he's been in the dugout. Whenever the camera flashes down in that direction during a game, you seem to see Lewis – with his whole 12 games of major-league experience – leaning over the railing, smiling, engaged in a conversation with some veteran teammate he's barely shared the field with. Somehow it's like he's been there for years. He's a natural. But as we discussed, Lewis hasn't been there for years. He's been sidetracked and derailed at every turn. So he can relate to anyone trying to savor that moment of triumphant accomplishment. The trials he's gone through give him a unique empathy and relatability to so many players throughout this organization, which is a strength he shares with the manager. I tend to think Lewis is gaining a lot of value from spending so much time around the big-leaguers and soaking in the experience. It will help prepare him for a role he's set to inherit that seems equally unfilled as starting shortstop: the more energetic and active clubhouse leader to counterbalance Byron Buxton's quiet confidence. A genuinely humble former first overall pick who's gained the perspective of going through hell injury-wise, and seems equally comfortable talking to an MVP-caliber veteran or a fringy minor-leaguer. That's Royce Lewis. He can become the connective glue of a clubhouse that figures to soon begin transitioning from a veteran core featuring the likes of Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler to an emerging young wave headlined by Lewis as well as fellow former first-rounders Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Brooks Lee, and Austin Martin. The timing of his knee rehab, which will carry over into the 2023 season, makes things a bit challenging, but the Twins would be silly not to make Lewis a central part of their plan. With a central locker location in the clubhouse. [EDITOR'S NOTE; This story was updated to remove a mistaken reference to Royce Lewis and Caleb Hamilton embracing in the dugout. Turns out they just look similar from behind.] View full article

The book is closed on Minnesota's 2022 postseason chances, and the Twins are sure playing like it. This past week saw an injury-ravaged, undermanned, seemingly disinterested team going through the motions to play out a soul-crushing second half of a sunken season. Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 9/19 through Sun, 9/25 *** Record Last Week: 1-6 (Overall: 74-79) Run Differential Last Week: -19 (Overall: -1) Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (12.0 GB) Last Week's Game Results: Game 147 | CLE 11, MIN 4: Guardians Humiliate Twins in Final Match-up Game 148 | KC 5, MIN 4: Bundy Bad, Bats Fizzle After Strong Start Game 149 | KC 5, MIN 2: Offense Lifeless Outside of Wallner's 2 RBIs Game 150 | KC 4, MIN 1: Lifeless Twins Swept by Lowly Royals Game 151 | LAA 4, MIN 2: Twins Can't Overcome Ohtani, Fall to Angels Game 152 | MIN 8, LAA 4: Losing Streak Snapped Behind Bats, Bullpen Game 153 | LAA 10, MiN 3: Halos Pull Away Late to Take Series NEWS & NOTES With contention now firmly out of the picture following a dozen-game slide in the standings over the past three weeks – from tied for first on September 4th to 12 games out on September 25th – the Twins are starting to pack it in and make preparations for the offseason and beyond. Step 1: taking action on Byron Buxton's broken-down body. The team announced on Friday that Buxton will undergo arthroscopic surgery to clean up scar tissue in the right knee that's bothered him for nearly the entire season. The hope is that this procedure, along with several months to rest his ailing hip, will put Buxton in a solid place physically heading into next spring, so he can take another shot at getting through a full season. He finishes 2022 with 92 games played and 382 plate appearances, both the second-highest totals of his career. He also posted 4+ Wins Above Replacement for a second straight year. Another solid yet ultimately unfulfilling campaign. Elsewhere... Sonny Gray went on the injured list with a hamstring strain, which drained his velocity in a brutal Monday start against Cleveland where he allowed four runs in two innings. Very reminiscent to the final start in Chicago from Tyler Mahle (also now confirmed out for the season). Louie Varland was recalled to join the rotation again, probably for the rest of the year. Trevor Megill was activated from COVID IL. Drew Strotman, designated for assignment last weekend, was claimed off waivers by the Texas Rangers. Dereck Rodriguez was outrighted to the Saints. Aaron Sanchez was also DFA'ed. HIGHLIGHTS The only real highlight of this miserable stretch of play was Matt Wallner, who is taking advantage of his late-season audition by showing what he can do with the stick. The 24-year-old found himself in the starting lineup for five of six games and delivered four hits with two doubles, two RBIs, and two walks. On Tuesday in Kansas City, Wallner provided the totality of Minnesota's meager offensive output, driving in two runs with three hits on the way to a 5-2 loss. He's making hard contact and showing the pop that helped produce 27 homers and a .542 slugging percentage between Double-A and Triple-A this season. An especially impressive aspect of Wallner's initial play was how he was keeping the whiffs in check, with only eight strikeouts in his first seven games, but on Friday and Saturday against Los Angeles he went 0-for-7 with six Ks. Growing pains for the young lefty slugger – but that's what these meaningless final games are for. LOWLIGHTS No, the pitching has not been especially good. Losing Gray from an already depleted staff only further diminishes a group that's been doing little to help the cause. Jorge López's complete meltdown on Monday (0.2 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 4 ER) was beyond discouraging and concerning. But let's be real: the offense is primarily responsible for dragging this team into a humiliating abyss. They scored more than four runs in a game just once all all week, and have done so five times in the entire month of September. Yeah, it hurts to be forced to use Jermaine Palacios – who is 0-for-33 with 15 strikeouts in the month of September – semi-regularly. And obviously it hurts to be without the likes of Byron Buxton and Jorge Polanco. But there are also key players who had been productive and now are just fading away completely. José Miranda went 6-for-25, all of his hits singles, with no RBIs. He is slashing just .261/.328/.384 with five homers in 52 games since the start of August. When Miranda first arrived on the scene, he was an ignitor and catalyst for the Twins offense, mashing homers with frequency and driving in runs reliably. That has since gone completely amiss, though he's continued to bat third or fourth almost everyday (and leadoff on Sunday!). Another underrated culprit in the team's demise, unfortunately: Luis Arraez. His once-firm grasp on the AL batting race has given way and he's now fallen to third, paving way for an Aaron Judge triple crown bid. The hits just continue to not fall for Arraez, who has only two multi-hit games in his past 12 and is batting .237/.256/.237 during this span. That can be how it goes when you don't have any power – his hard-hit rate ranks in the bottom 7% of all MLB hitters – and, as of late, no patience. Arraez has drawn only one walk in the entire month of September, where he has a .302 on-base percentage. His All-Star first half has been followed by a sub-mediocre second half – since the break, Arraez has been worth 0.3 fWAR in 54 games. Although, again, it should be noted that he's clearly playing nowhere near 100% as a hamstring issue hobbles him continuously. He has the second-worst WPA on the team since the start of August. (Miranda is fourth-worst, with Palacios and Mark Contreras occupying the other two spots. Two of those names you'd probably expect.) TRENDING STORYLINE With several players in the late stages of rehab here as this lost season draws to a close, the team must try to balance the value of getting them back on the field to finish on a positive note, versus the value of simply shutting them down and letting them get early starts on their offseasons. They've already chosen the latter path with Buxton and it seems they're inclined to take the same route with Polanco, although he hasn't officially been ruled out. Max Kepler, Ryan Jeffers and Trevor Larnach all have a decent chance to return in the coming week, for whatever that is worth. LOOKING AHEAD There is not an ounce of competitive drama left to extract from this season – even the White Sox, who Twins might have been motivated to spoil in six remaining match-ups, have already taken themselves out of contention. With that said, this is our last full week of Twins baseball until 2023, so try to enjoy these remaining moments. I know I'll be getting out to Target Field one last time for during the final home series against the White Sox, which will feature a trio of internally developed Twins starters who figure to be key parts of next year's plan. TUESDAY, 9/27: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Lance Lynn v. RHP Bailey Ober WEDNESDAY, 9/28: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Johnny Cueto v. RHP Josh Winder THURSDAY, 9/29: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Lucas Giolito vs RHP Louie Varland FRIDAY, 9/30: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Drew Hutchison SATURDAY, 10/1: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Dylan Bundy v. LHP Tyler Alexander SUNDAY, 10/2: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Bailey Ober v. LHP Joey Wentz View full article

Seems doubtful since they weren't really doing it before this year (and seemingly turned to it as a response to nobody wanting to come here). Starting pitchers have averaged more innings per start under Rocco than the typical MLB SP during his tenure.

Both have a negative Win Probability Added and significantly below-average ERA so that seems like wishful thinking to me. More realistically, if either one was here (or both) and playing like they have, everyone would be complaining that the front office wasn't proactive in moving them.

Takes two to tango. I feel like it's been made pretty clear that free agent pitchers generally don't want to come here, so that's not really an avenue for "building the pitching staff." Not sure it realistically is for any mid-market team? If they used the Correa money on pitching, would their outcome have really been any different? Again: signing him (to become their most valuable player) and relying on the internal arms was a measured risk, and a reasonable one. Then they got basically nothing from Paddack, Ober, Winder, Balazovic, or Canterino. Traded for Mahle to alleviate the shortage and got basically nothing from him.

With an upgrade atop the rotation shaping up as a clear need at the trade deadline, the division leaders targeted and acquired a frontline starter. They gave up a hefty prospect package to gain extended control, but now this big trade is in danger of blowing up completely after underwhelming performance gave way to a mysterious shoulder injury. Oh, did you think I was referencing Tyler Mahle? No, I'm talking about Frankie Montas. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker and Bruce Kluckhohn, USA Today Frankie Montas was one of the hottest names on the market at the trade deadline, and was known to be pursued by Minnesota last offseason. The Yankees acquired him alongside reliever Lou Trivino in exchange for four prospects on August 1st. The results have not been as hoped. Montas posted a 6.35 ERA in eight turns, including just one quality start, before undergoing an MRI on his shoulder this week. He landed on the injured list and there's a pretty good chance he won't pitch again for the Yankees in 2022. Barring further clarity around what's affecting him, Montas figures to be a bit of a question mark heading into next season, too. The Twins can obviously relate. They've gone through a similar ordeal with their own prized deadline pickup. Like Montas, Tyler Mahle had some known shoulder issues when he was acquired. Like Montas, those issues have now grown more problematic, even though – in both cases – MRI results revealed no structural damage, before or after the trades. This is what differentiates the Mahle outcome from, say, the Chris Paddack move, where the Twins accepted a rather extreme level of risk in the name of acquiring extended control of a good starter. That was a measured risk on its own, but it shouldn't be grouped with the one they took on Mahle, who (like Montas) was more typical of a deadline gambit. It's the nature of the beast: as a leveraged buyer in a seller's market, under big pressure to improve, you're going to have to take risks – like ponying up big prospect capital for a talented arm with ambiguous health concerns, or buying high on a breakout All-Star reliever who lacks a convincing track record. Those who constantly advocate for these types of assertive showings from the front office now sound rather toothless when criticizing them in hindsight. While we can all see the overall results have been unsatisfactory – albeit hardly disastrous for a reigning last-place team – this front office was audacious in shaking things up. Isn't that what we want? The big deadline moves. Locking down Byron Buxton with a creative extension. Trading their highest-upside pitching prospect for Sonny Gray. Unloading Josh Donaldson's contract. Signing Carlos Correa to a historic deal (albeit at the expense of investment in pitching). And going back a bit further, let's not forget about trading José Berríos to Toronto at the 2021 deadline, thus letting the Blue Jays sign him to a massive extension while flipping him into one of their breakthrough pitching prospects. That one looks pretty good now. Others don't. And it's beyond valid to criticize the front office for these many moves that haven't panned out, especially those like the Paddack trade, which carried huge red flags from the start. (Although, if we're being honest, they were kinda right about Taylor Rogers, just as they were Berríos?) There's a big gap between "merits criticism" and "needs replacement." I'm not close to the latter point with Derek Falvey or Thad Levine, although changes at various levels of the organization are well warranted. In terms of leadership vision, we've experienced the opposite approach – one characterized by risk aversion and playing it safe. I dare say that's what sunk them last year when their biggest additions were Alex Colomé and JA Happ. As the saying goes, scared money don't make money. Sometimes those bold gambles don't turn out as hoped, and you've got to live with the consequences. It happens even to the Yankees. That won't stop them from staying aggressive and shooting their shots in the future. It shouldn't stop the Twins either, albeit at a different scale given their resources. View full article

If the Minnesota Twins are going to bounce back next year, it will take more than savvy offseason moves from the front office. Impact veterans help but, as we've seen with Carlos Correa, they can't do it all. Internal help is crucial. The club was helped greatly this season – and saved perhaps from another all-out disaster – by key rookies making immediate contributions, including Jose Miranda, Jhoan Duran and Joe Ryan. Some positive developments in the minors offer hope that more impact help is soon on the way. Image courtesy of Ken Blaze, USA Today Sports Yesterday we assessed the damage from the most upsetting negative developments in the Twins system this year, with three of the organization's top six prospects experiencing calamitous setbacks that have sent them spiraling out of the Twins' plans. As a chaser to cleanse all those bad vibes, today we'll highlight some hugely positive developments on the farm, each propelling ascendent prospects more directly into the team's future. Best of all, we couldn't limit this list to just three. These five players have tremendously improved their stocks this year, setting the stage to potentially help the major-league team in the very near future (if they haven't already). Louie Varland backs up a big year. We've already seen the early returns on this breakout prospect star. Varland didn't exactly come out of nowhere – he was named the organization's minor-league pitcher of the year in 2021 – but there was still an air of skepticism around him, a former 15th-round draft pick out of a D-II college. Sure, he was amazing in A-ball last year, but plenty of collegiate draft picks have dominated those low levels only to get a reality check in the high minors. For Varland, that check never came. He translated his excellence to Double-A without missing a beat, earning a late-season promotion to Triple-A that quickly turned into a major-league debut. Stepping out under the lights of Yankee Stadium, Varland excelled and made a big impression. Things didn't quite as well his next time out, in Cleveland on Saturday, but this is a guy whose stated goal for this year was to reach St. Paul. He blew past it, and as a consequence, will find himself squarely in the MLB depth picture heading into next season. Matt Wallner mashes past his contact issues. Wallner is another prospect whose monster campaign has already paved the way for a sooner-than-expected MLB debut. And like Varland, he's a local kid, native to Forest Lake, MN. Unlike Varland, Wallner was not a late-round draft pick who emerged from low expectations to achieve top prospect status. He was a bona fide stud coming out of college, selected 39th overall in 2019. But he had his own set of doubts coming into this season, relating mainly to his contact and discipline issues. Even for someone with as much raw power as Wallner, it's really tough to project big-league success for a bat-first player who strikes out 33% of the time and barely walks – at Single-A as a 23-year-old, no less. Would upper-level pitchers chop him to bits? Turns out, it's been the other way around. Wallner obliterated Double-A pitching, posting a .299/.436/.597 slash line with 21 homers in 74 games. That earned him a trip to the Futures Game and a promotion to Triple-A soon after. Wallner got off to a slow start with the Saints, batting .105 with zero extra-base hits in his first 10 games. Then he flipped a switch. Since the beginning of August he's slashing .289/.414/.564. Walks are up, strikeouts are down, and that has a been an overall trend for him this year as he's shown the ability to actively improve his strike zone control and evolve his game. The huge breakout season, combined with desperation for help at the big-league level, led to Wallner getting called up in Cleveland this past weekend. He homered off Shane Bieber in his first MLB game. Wallner felt like a bit of a longshot at this time last year, but now looks like a guy you can confidently write into the team's plans going forward. The idea of both he and Varland, as hometown boys, turning into fixtures for the Twins over the next five years is pretty fun. Simeon Woods Richardson shows his true colors. A former second-round draft pick of the Mets, Woods Richardson has widely been viewed as one of the more prestigious pitching prospects in the minors, making both Baseball America's and MLB.com's Top 100 lists in 2020 and 2021. The Twins were thrilled to get him alongside Austin Martin in the trade that sent José Berríos to Toronto last summer. Looking at his 2021 season in isolation, fans might have been asking ... why? He had a 5.76 ERA in 11 starts with the Blue Jays' Double-A affiliate, and then put up a 6.75 ERA in a brief eight-inning September stint with Wichita. It was a weird year that saw him get aggressively assigned to Double-A at age 20, then take a bunch of time away from his team for the Olympics, where he didn't even pitch. The 6-foot-3, 210 lb right-hander has fully gotten back on track this year. He didn't allow a run in his first four starts en route to a 2.92 ERA over 71 innings at Wichita before moving up to St. Paul in mid-August. There he has continued to excel with a 2.55 ERA in 24 ⅔ frames. Between both levels, Woods Richardson has averaged well over a strikeout per inning, cut down significantly on the walks, and allowed only six home runs in 21 outings. Opponents have batted .206 against him. He's about three years younger than the average player at Triple-A. This reaffirming turnaround from Woods Richardson has been huge for two reasons, both tying to yesterday's article. First, it keeps the Berríos trade looking like a winner even with Martin falling off, and second, it keeps another high-caliber and near-ready pitching prospect in the wings even with Balazovic getting derailed. Emmanuel Rodriguez blossoms into prospect stardom. Unlike the others highlighted in this article, Rodriguez is probably not in line to make an MLB debut in the especially near future. He's a teenager who hasn't appeared above Low-A and his timeline was further delayed by a season-ending knee injury suffered in June. In spite of all that, his performance prior to that injury was so magnificent, and so incredibly encouraging, that he has to be included in this piece. Rodriguez ranked 15th on our preseason top prospects list, characterized as an intriguing yet distant international talent coming off an impressive showing in rookie ball. His follow-up at Single-A left no doubt as to the outfielder's sky-high potential: in 47 games before going down, he slashed .272/.493/.552 with nine homers, 11 steals, and 57 (!) walks. Yes, you read that right – nearly a .500 OBP and more walks than games played from a 19-year-old in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. Realistically, even if he comes back with gusto next year, Rodriguez is probably looking at a 2024 debut at the earliest, but his spectacular first half puts him in the "blue chip prospect" conversation and that's a hugely positive development for this system. Brooks Lee arrives and thrives. I honestly believe this will go down as THE biggest boost to the farm system over a span of many years: Lee, widely viewed as one of the premier talents in this year's MLB draft, somehow sliding to the Twins at No. 8 overall, where they were more than happy to take him. They may have landed a new franchise player. Quickly signed to a $5.7 million bonus, Lee has handled every assignment so far with aplomb. He went to rookie ball briefly where he batted .353 to earn a promotion to Single-A. Five weeks at Cedar Rapids was enough to convince the Twins he was ready for the next level, so over the weekend, Lee was called up to Wichita, reaching Double-A exactly two months after he was drafted. Touted for his "otherworldly bat-to-ball skills," Lee was one of the top hitters in college, an exceedingly advanced talent, and the Twins could barely contain their excitement when he fell into their laps. "It’s hard to say who made who fall to our pick," said scouting director Sean Johnson, "but regardless of who caused it, [for] the domino to trickle, we’re ecstatic." Their actions have backed up their words. Advanced talent or not, pushing a player to Double-A two months after drafting him makes an aggressive statement. Presumably billed to open back at Wichita in 2023, Lee will be in position to make a case for a big-league promotion next summer. It's almost as if the Twins are planning around that possibility. View full article

If the Minnesota Twins are going to bounce back next year, it will take more than savvy offseason moves from the front office. Impact veterans help but, as we've seen with Carlos Correa, they can't do it all. The Twins were partly derailed this year by a lack of expected contributions from key players in the system, including the following three premier talents. Unfortunately, their setback seasons will cast a shadow forward onto 2023. Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge (Austin Martin) Coming into the 2022 season, Twins Daily ranked Austin Martin, Jordan Balazovic and Matt Canterino as the first, fourth, and sixth best prospects in the organization, respectively. Not only were they high-caliber talents with polish and big upside, but they were all more or less on the precipice of major-league readiness. In each case, things hardly could've gone worse. Whether performance, injury, or a combination, each of these critical assets saw his stock nosedive over the past summer, and it adds another layer of complexity for a front office trying to build its way back to contention. With that said, hope isn't lost for any of these three. Let's take a look at each of their campaigns so far, as things come close to wrapping up here in September. Austin Martin and the power that never came. The prize of last year's José Berríos trade at the deadline, Martin was billed as a near-ready prospect right out of the gates. It was warranted, after he led all of Double-A in on-base percentage during his first pro season. Despite his resounding success, Minnesota sent Martin back to the same level this year, no doubt hoping he'd shore up his biggest weakness from 2022 – an absence of power to complement the excellent OBP – and earn a quick call-up to Triple-A or even the majors. That didn't happen. Martin's power trended the wrong direction this year. After slugging .382 with a .127 ISO and five home runs in 418 PAs between New Hampshire and Wichita, this year he's slugging .317 with an .074 ISO and two home runs in 406 PAs at Wichita. Martin has kept his on-base skills steady, with a .367 OBP despite the crummy .241 average, but his lack of ability to drive the ball with any authority almost renders it moot. Posting a .685 OPS as a 23-year-old in your second turn at Double-A, with no apparent underlying injury, is nothing short of disastrous. Given all the injuries the Twins have faced this season, it's likely Martin would've gotten a chance at some point if he'd even modestly improved his production from a year ago. His drop-off eliminated that possibility and will leave him as something of an afterthought heading into 2023. Martin's going to tank on national prospect lists, where he ranked around #50 by consensus coming into the season. Why you shouldn't lose hope: Martin would hardly be the first player to develop significant power rapidly in his mid-20s. In fact, two "shortstop" prospects who came before him in the Twins system serve as optimistic precedents: Brain Dozier totaled 14 home runs in 317 games through his first three minor-league seasons. Five years later he would set an American League record by launching 42 as a second baseman in 2016. Jorge Polanco hit 35 total home runs total in 598 minor-league games, and could barely muster an XBH in his early days. He hit 33 home runs for the Twins last year. Jordan Balazovic's puzzling struggles in St. Paul. We had Balazovic ranked as the #1 pitcher in the system coming into this year, following a strong campaign at Double-A where he posted a 3.62 ERA and 9.5 K/9 rate as a 22-year-old. Relative to other arms in the system, Balazovic had a more consistent track record and more established workload base, which is why it seemed feasible to envision him playing a significant role in the Twins rotation this year. His abominable performance at Triple-A has done away with that notion entirely. Balazovic started a month late with the Saints due to a knee strain. While he ostensibly put that behind him, staying healthy enough to take the mound each sixth day, he has never seemed right at any point. The right-hander's performance with St. Paul has been beyond awful. In 62 ⅔ innings across 20 appearances, he's 0-6 with a 7.47 ERA. Opponents have slashed .342/.412/.625 against him, as both his walk and home run rates have spiraled out of control. Balazovic has made 19 starts for the Saints and completed five innings ONCE. In late June, Balazovic told Dean Spiros of the Pioneer Press his struggles were "like a puzzle; every day it’s something new." "I’ve never pitched like this,” Balazovic said. “Last year (at Double-A Wichita) my numbers started to get worse in the second half because I was working on stuff. That’s kind of carried over to this season a little bit, but not to where it should be affecting me this bad.” The big 6-foot-5 righty boiled his issues down to consistency and execution, but expressed hope he was getting closer to solving the puzzle. "I’m still hoping for that day," he said, "and I’m hoping that day is tomorrow." It wasn't. The following day he needed 60 pitches to get through 2 ⅔ innings against the Iowa Cubs, allowing five hits (two homers) and two walks. His next time out he coughed up five earned runs in three innings against Omaha. These have been typical results for Balazovic this year, and as a result he's slid down a pitching pipeline hierarchy that's already been depleted by the Chase Petty trade and the development we'll look at next. Why you shouldn't lose hope: Balazovic didn't quite follow through on his "hoping that day is tomorrow" goal, but he might not have been far off? While he bombed in his next two starts, he's been on a bit of a roll ever since, posting a 2.52 ERA and 29-to-11 K/BB ratio with just three homers allowed over 25 innings in his past six starts. Sometimes guys need to experience their worst to unlock their best. Balazovic has plenty of talent to rebound and get back on track. Matt Canterino and the elbow that finally gave way. Canterino's elbow is the only thing that's stood in his way. Drafted 54th overall in 2019 after blowing people away at Rice University for three years, the hard-throwing righty immediately started doing the same to professional hitters. In a 25-inning debut between rookie ball and Low-A, he posted a 1.44 ERA with 31 strikeouts and only eight hits allowed. Then, the pandemic happened and wiped out the 2020 season. In 2021, he was limited to 23 total innings by a forearm strain (he posted a 0.78 ERA when he was able to pitch). This year, his elbow soreness re-emerged and while the Twins continually tried to navigate around it, treating surgery as a last resort, they eventually ran out of options. "It felt like we didn't have anymore stones to turn over," said assistant GM Jeremy Zoll. Unfortunately, the efforts to avoid surgery only delayed it, and now Canterino's prospective impact has also been pushed well down the line. Since he didn't undergo Tommy John until last month, Canterino will likely miss all of next year rehabbing, meaning that by the time he's ready to fully return to the mound, he'll be a 26-year-old with fewer than 100 innings as a pro. It's really difficult to come back from that. Why you shouldn't lose hope: Difficult, but not impossible. The biggest cost of all this lost time would theoretically be missed development for a guy who's barely been able to get in-game reps since being drafted three years ago. For Canterino, I'm not sure it matters as much. He's basically always looked like a guy ready for the majors when he's pitched, with raw stuff that speaks for itself. So long as that stuff remains mostly intact after the surgery, he'll have a chance to get back up to speed quickly and make his long-awaited impact on the bullpen, even if it's not until 2024. Feeling bummed out? I hear you! Make sure to check back tomorrow when I break down the most uplifting developments on the farm for the Twins this year ... Good news: I couldn't manage to limit that list to just three. View full article

Coming into last week, the Minnesota Twins still had a glimmer of remaining hope to turn things around and mount a run in the AL Central. They kept the spark alive with a sweep of the Royals at home. But by losing the first three games in Cleveland over the weekend, blatantly overmatched in their short-handed state, the Twins snuffed out any long-shot scenarios and sealed their fate. The division they led for so much of the season has slipped away. Image courtesy of David Richard-USA TODAY Sports Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 9/12 through Sun, 9/18 *** Record Last Week: 4-3 (Overall: 73-73) Run Differential Last Week: +6 (Overall: +18) Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (6.0 GB) Last Week's Game Results: Game 140 | MIN 6, KC 3: Twins Lose No-No in Ninth, Win Easily Game 141 | MIN 4, KC 0: Gray Leads Shutout with Seven Scoreless Game 142 | MIN 3, KC 2: Bullpen Locks Down Slim Lead for Sweep Game 143 | CLE 4, MIN 3: Twins Can't Hold Onto 3-Run Lead Game 144 | CLE 5, MIN 1: Wallner Homers in Debut, Twins Lose Game 145 | CLE 6, MIN 5: 15-Inning Marathon Yields Same Result Game 146 | MIN 3, CLE 0: Twins Salvage Win Behind Ryan's Brilliance NEWS & NOTES As this lost season winds down, the Twins continue to fittingly be besieged by a never-ending onslaught of injuries. Max Kepler became the latest to join the infirmary pack this past week, with his wrist issue forcing him onto an injured list that already includes fellow planned lineup staples Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Alex Kirilloff, Ryan Jeffers and Trevor Larnach. Polanco, who's been sidelined for weeks by a knee injury, tried to give it a go in a rehab start at St. Paul on Friday night but couldn't make it all the way through, exiting after five innings. He's probably done for the season. Jeffers and Larnach had more encouraging starts to their rehab assignments, and both have a chance to make it back for the final slate of games, for whatever that's worth. As a silver lining to Kepler going down, the IL move did create an opportunity for Matt Wallner, who homered in his major-league debut on Saturday. In this total wreck of a season, it's nice at least to see local boys like Wallner and Louie Varland get these chances – well earned with monster years in the minors. Another young player set to get his first chance: Ronny Henriquez, who was promoted on Sunday despite posting a 5.66 ERA at St. Paul. Not quite as well earned, but they just need bodies on the staff at this point, basically. HIGHLIGHTS The Twins have this going for them: they can still flat-out dominate the Royals. They ran up their winning streak against Kansas City to seven with another sweep at home, suppressing any hint of offensive threat from the woeful Royals lineup. On Monday, Joe Ryan pitched seven innings of no-hit ball before being lifted at 106 pitches. Reliever Jovani Moran nearly completed the feat, but the Royals were finally able to get on the board in the ninth. Sonny Gray looked somehow even more dominant the following night, tossing seven shutout innings of his own. Thursday saw the bullpen step up with a huge string of clutch performances, as five different relievers contributed one shutout inning apiece to maintain a slim one-run lead. Relievers weren't able to hold up quite as well on Friday, following an excellent return to action from Bailey Ober (5 IP, 0 R), but we'll get to that later. After flirting with a no-no in his first start of the week, Ryan turned in one of the finest performances of his career in the second, hurling 7 ⅔ shutout innings against Cleveland. He allowed just three hits and two walks in the highly efficient outing, lowering his ERA to 3.61 in the process. While Ryan has shown his warts this year (namely, a problematic proneness to home runs), he's undoubtedly been one of the team's most successful starters, and is on his way to finishing strong. LOWLIGHTS Plenty of frustration has been aired far and wide about the Twins and their management of the pitching staff. Personally, I don't have a problem with the general philosophy, given their personnel. But it's the complete rigidity of Minnesota's strict adherence to the playbook that gets to me. There's no room for reacting to circumstances, or pushing the boundaries when it's absolutely necessary. Take Friday night for example. The Twins had every reason to set aside their cautionary nature and push Ober a bit in his return to action. He looked great. He was at only 70 pitches through five innings. Most importantly, the bullpen had been run ragged in protecting a tight lead for five innings the previous day, and a double-header was on deck the next. Didn't matter. Ober came out after five innings, as is custom. Rocco Baldelli ran through arguably his four best relievers, all pitching on back-to-backs, and lost anyway. It left essentially no relief ammo for the rest of the weekend, culminating with Dereck Rodriguez pitching four frames in extra innings as the team's season hung by a thread and gave way. Alas, while it's easy to get caught up in the early hooks and shortcomings on the mound, there's no doubt where the blame primarily lies for this team's downfall: an offense woefully unequipped to compete. This team was always built around the strength of its lineup, which has turned into a debilitating weakness here in the late stages of the season. Since the start of August the bullpen has largely been stabilized and the pitching has been fine overall (6th among AL teams in pitching WAR, 8th in ERA). Meanwhile, the offense has fizzled out during this span, ranking 11th in wOBA and 10th in runs scored. The last time the Twins notched double-digit runs in a contest was August 30th against Boston; since then they have averaged 3.4 runs per game, scoring more than four times in just four of 18. With production like that, a 6-12 record is about what you expect. No amount of savvy pitching management or bullpen string-pulling can overcome such a dearth of run scoring. Saturday night epitomized the team's inability to muster anything with the bats. In a grinding 15-inning affair, the Twins could not will themselves to victory despite receiving opportunity after opportunity. They managed only seven hits in 15 innings and went 3-for-21 with runners in scoring position before finally succumbing to their eighth consecutive loss against Cleveland. Astonishing ineptitude. Then again, it's pretty easy to see how we've gotten to this point. You look at their lineup on any given day and it's now filled with minor-leaguers, third-stringers, retreads. Jake Cave batting fifth. Jermaine Palacios drawing daily starts. Billy Hamilton receiving major league at-bats, in an ostensible pennant race. Even (especially?) with all the attrition, it'd be nice to see anyone stepping up other Carlos Correa, whose September surge continued with another excellent week (10-for-28, two homers, two doubles). The most conspicuous under-performer in the lineup at this point might be Luis Arraez, himself battling through a hamstring issue. He went 3-for-14 against Cleveland and is slashing .284/.316/.397 since appearing in the All-Star Game in July. Since the break, Arraez has been worth 0.4 fWAR (tying him with Cave) and he has the worst Win Probability of all position players other than Kyle Garlick, Kepler, and Palacios. Given that I ranked Arraez a month ago as the single most important player to the team's chances in the stretch run, his drop-off – while several others near the top of that list have gone down with injuries – tells the story of this team's downfall in a nutshell. TRENDING STORYLINE Following their flop in Cleveland, the Twins find themselves with about a 1% chance of making the postseason – and that's based merely on historical odds, not accounting for the fact that almost their entire team is injured while their rivals (especially the Guardians) are enjoying much better health. It's over. So what now? What are the focuses for these final three weeks? Aside from playing out the string, the Twins' motivation has been reduced to: Trying to finish with a record above .500. Play spoiler against the White Sox, who now trail Cleveland by 3 ½ games. Have a few injured players get back on the field and finish the season on relatively positive notes. Get a look at some young players to set them up for bigger impacts in 2023. Personally, only the latter two are all that meaningful to me. And in the case of injured players, I think they're probably better off just shutting down the likes of Buxton, Polanco, and Larnach with hopes of getting them as healthy as possible for next spring. With that said, I hope we'll get to see Wallner, Varland, Henriquez, and maybe even Simeon Woods Richardson take the spotlight here in this final stretch. For me, it'll be the only real draw. LOOKING AHEAD Good news for the Twins in their quest to finish above .500, I guess: they've got three more games ahead against Kansas City, who they've defeated in 12 of 16 matchups. Then they'll host the Angels, with a Shohei Ohtani start on the slate for Friday night to kick off the final homestand of the season. MONDAY, 9/19: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Sonny Gray v. RHP Cal Quantrill TUESDAY, 9/20: TWINS @ ROYALS – RHP Dylan Bundy v. RHP Zack Greinke WEDNESDAY, 9/21: TWINS @ ROYALS – TBD v. LHP Daniel Lynch THURSDAY, 9/22: TWINS @ ROYALS – RHP Josh Winder v. RHP Jonathan Heasley FRIDAY, 9/23: ANGELS @ TWINS – RHP Shohei Ohtani v. RHP Joe Ryan SATURDAY, 9/24: ANGELS @ TWINS – LHP Reid Detmers v. RHP Sonny Gray SUNDAY, 9/25: ANGELS @ TWINS – LHP Jose Suarez v. RHP Dylan Bundy View full article

To be clear, I meant "devastating" as a combination of how impactful and unforeseeable they were. Losing Paddack or Buxton or Mahle certainly cost the team more in terms of projected WAR, but they were injuries we could have reasonably seen coming. For Kirilloff's season-ending wrist surgery a year ago to basically do nothing, due apparently to some rare biological anomaly? For Buxton to suffer a freak knee injury in a wall collision? These are calamitous events to first-round picks who became top prospects and (rightfully) primary building blocks for the franchise's future. Lewis is a born leader and amazing talent. The only reason you're calling him a bust is because he missed last year with another freak injury and the previous year due to a global pandemic. Which makes this latest setback all the more devastating.

But to suggest his bad moves are responsible for where the team is at, would be to suggest that they're dramatically underperforming their talent level. And my whole premise with this post is that they are not. They are playing about up to what anyone should reasonably expect given the sheer number of injuries that have ravaged their roster. He didn't trade Taylor Rogers for Emilio Pagan. He didn't set up the rotation with a bunch of SPs incapable of going 6+ IP, he's just working with what he's got. I'm not saying he's been perfect by any means but I just don't see him as high on the list of problems. The front office is far more culpable for what they provided him (including the pitching plan he's been executing on) but I still don't see this as the time to fire the top dogs. Shake some things up? Sure.

Pretty sure that would show up on a scan, Dr. Jimbo

What exactly did you expect coming off a year where they finished last place in said division? Seems like you're not being very realistic or practical. They should be fired for not building a World Series champion in these circumstances? We can all recognize that 2021 was a mess and was largely on their shoulders. That doesn't mean we can't extend some grace as they try to work back on track, which they mostly did this year outside of the catastrophic injuries.

As I watched the team play over the past week, it was the only thing going through my head. You can't expect to beat decent teams with Max Kepler hitting 4th out of sheer necessity and 3rd-string options making up half your lineup. Or with Ryan and Bundy as essentially your only healthy starters. The slide was basically inevitable. Maybe you could argue they could've scraped together more wins early on and been in a better position right now but even if they managed to win the garbo division they'd stand zero chance in the playoffs with this decimated roster. The injuries have given them no chance to realize their (considerable) potential.

I think then problem with this analysis is that it doesn't account for good management decisions and smart calls that led to victories. It's very one-sided hindsight analysis. Everyone wants to talk about how going to Pagan against Cleveland lost them games. No one wants to talk about how many games the Twins won because Rocco removed a starter before he imploded, or pulled the right bullpen strings. No one wants to talk about how many games they've won because of Jhoan Duran, one of the best rookie relievers in franchise history that this FO targeted, acquired, developed, and unleashed. There were a lot of things done right to generate meaningful improvement this year. With truly incompetent oversight it could've been a lot worse. IMO.

It was explicitly stated that nothing was expected from Maeda or Dobnak this year and that's why they were throw-ins at the bottom of the list. Why use them as your examples?

1) Typically when a guy undergoes serious season-ending surgery to address a long-standing issue, it resolves it, rather than doing nothing and requiring a more invasive surgery a year later. You're telling me they should have seen this coming? How do you plan around this turn of events with the best young hitter in your organization? You can't just go find another Alex Kirilloff to replace him. 2) Maybe some people considered Lewis a "bust" or "not expected to have much impact." Others knew better and weren't shy about saying so. He's a franchise player. I'm not sure how you could've watched what he did in Triple-A and briefly in the majors this year and not recognize the massive difference-making role he would've played.