Nick Nelson

By almost any standard other than the Minnesota Twins and their current front office, the newly minted three-year contract for catcher Christian Vázquez would not be all that significant or noteworthy. As it happens, their reported commitment of $30 million ranks as the third-largest for a free agent in six years since this front office took over. Image courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports Derek Falvey and Thad Levine moved quickly after taking the reins in 2016, signing catcher Jason Castro to a three-year, $24.5 million contract as their first move. It would be the new regime's largest commitment to a free agent until 2020, when they made waves by signing third baseman Josh Donaldson for four years and $92 million. An audacious move coming off a breakthrough season. Donaldson's deal nearly doubled the franchise record-holder for biggest free agent contract: Ervin Santana for four years and $52 million, almost eight years ago to the day (12/14/14). Donaldson's two-year tenure with the Twins was unfulfilling, and the team was happy to move on when they unloaded his remaining contract to New York this past February. They used the newfound payroll space to make an even bigger splash: signing Carlos Correa to a three-year, $105 million stunner. He opted out of that deal a few weeks ago, as expected. Which brings us to this week, where the Twins have agreed to terms with Christian Vazquez on a three-year deal worth $30 million over three years. With that, we've covered all of the biggest free agent commitments ever from this front office: Vazquez (#3) nests behind Correa (#1) and Donaldson (#2) as the heftiest contract in six offseasons, and – along with Castro – the only deals spanning three or more years. There are a few ways to react to this. The first, of course is: wow, that really puts the Twins' aversion to free agent spending in context. Their biggest splurges under this regime have been two solid yet unspectacular catchers, and two superstar infielders, whose contracts more or less melded into one. (Twins basically turned the last $52 million owed to Donaldson into $35 million for Correa.) Castro is, thus far, the only one of these players who actually played out at least three years of his contract as a Twin. Vázquez will presumably join him, bridging us to the other reaction: the front office must REALLY like Christian Vázquez. Clearly they are deeply uncomfortable with long-term contracts, especially for aging players. If they wanted to, the Twins could have certainly bided their time to wait out the remaining trade market, or turned their attention to another free agent around the middle tier. They passed up the opportunity to pursue a (likely cheaper) true platoon partner for Ryan Jeffers, such as Omar Narváez or Tucker Barnhardt, in order to aggressively acquire Vázquez – who was reportedly their #1 free agent catching target from the start. What do they like so much about the 32-year-old to make such a (relatively) big leap? Vázquez has a number of appealing qualities, one of which is pitch-framing – particularly high in the zone) – as Lucas Seehafer laid out in detail. There's also his relatively neutral platoon split, his strong throwing arm, and his reputed clubhouse presence. Beyond that, the Twins' willingness to pay a real premium for the backstop comes down to two core things: safety and experience. SAFETY This is the biggest factor without question, in my mind. Coming into this offseason, the catcher position was a glaring hole on an otherwise structurally sound roster. Dan Hayes writes in The Athletic that the team was "desperate to find a catcher in free agency." Vázquez has had an up-and-down career, with occasional solid offensive bursts counterbalanced by long unproductive stretches ... but he's been serviceable at worst. Even when his bat is amiss, he remains a steady defensive player and durable mainstay. He might arguably lack the upside of a Zunino or Narváez, but he's got a higher and sturdier floor. And that's what this move does: complete the front office's floor-raising setup for whatever is next. EXPERIENCE The Astros acquired Vázquez from Boston at the deadline this year, valuing him as a seasoned vet who could contribute during the stretch and into the playoffs. He played 41 games for Houston in August, September, and October, aiding their successful pursuit of a World Series championship. It was the second ring for Vázquez, who won another in Boston in 2018 and took part in a deep run with the Red Sox in 2021. For a Twins organization that was devoid of ANY meaningful big-league catching experience beyond Jeffers' 600 plate appearances ... it's easy to see why this track record would be very appealing. Now, the big remaining question is whether this front office is going to add another top contract to its modest historical ledger. Amazingly, Vázquez's $30 million contract has now entered their top three -- and the top six in franchise history, adding in Santana and Ricky Nolasco. If Vázquez remains on either of those lists by the time the offseason is over, it'll be hard to see how this winter would be viewed as a success. View full article

Flexen would not be the reason for giving up Kepler in that scenario. My thinking is that Seattle would be more willing to give up Miller (their second best pitching prospect) if they can move Flexen's $8M salary in the deal to offset Kepler's. It's about buying a better prospect since the Twins have no shortage of cash. I'd have low expectations for Flex but he's not without upside. Check out his 2021 numbers.

It's no secret that Max Kepler is on the trading block this winter, entering his final guaranteed season under team control while growing redundant on the Twins roster. In sizing up possible trade partners for Kepler, there is one team that stands out to me as a particularly intuitive fit: an AL West club with whom Minnesota may find itself competing for a playoff spot next year. Image courtesy of Brad Penner, USA Today The 2022 season was a characteristic one for Max Kepler: solid yet underwhelming. He was a fairly valuable overall player, posting 2.0 fWAR thanks primarily to his elite defense in right field. His offense, as usual, was suppressed by a debilitatingly low BABIP as opposing defenses suffocated him with the shift. There's encouraging news on that front, which could enhance Kepler's marketability. But more on that shortly. The bottom line is that, even if his luster has largely worn off in the eyes of Twins fans, Kepler IS a quality asset with appeal to many contending teams in need of a lefty corner outfield bat. There are several such clubs, and one of the best ways to identify them is by following who is pursuing (and missing out on) free agents that share the same profile. Among them: the Seattle Mariners. There are a few different reasons the Mariners stand out to me as a logical trade partner for the Twins and Kepler. The first is that their general manager is Jerry Dipoto, one of the most prolific wheelers and dealers on the GM circuit. Trade speculation is always valid when Jerry's involved. Seattle's specific situation also frames them as a practical landing spot for Kepler. The M's got horrible production from both outfield corners in 2022, and it was one of the biggest flaws on a 90-win team that made the playoffs but couldn't push deep. Mitch Haniger's injury-plagued year put right field in limbo for Seattle, while Jesse Winker was a defensive disaster and mediocre bat in left. Haniger's now gone, with Teoscar Hernandez acquired from Toronto to replace his powerful right-handed bat. It still seems as though Dipoto and Seattle are still seeking another lefty-hitting outfielder to complement Hernandez and Julio Rodriguez, as illustrated by their reported pursuit of Brandon Nimmo (who re-signed with the Mets) and Andrew Benintendi. The Mariners are looking for assurance and Kepler offers it. He's been worth two or more Wins Above Replacement in every full season of his career. Entering his age-30 season, he's a safe bet to at least be a solid fixture and a big upgrade over what the Mariners had last year. The new defensive shifting limitations, along with the outfielder's stellar Statcast measurables, could hint at legitimate upside. Kepler's contract situation – one more guaranteed season at $8.5 million with a 2024 team option at $10 million – is part of what I see as making him attractive to Seattle specifically. They have a pair of top prospects who happen to be lefty-swinging outfielders: Jarred Kelenic (23) and Taylor Trammell (25). Both have struggled to turn the corner in the majors, but its too early to give up on either. And by following this route, the Mariners wouldn't need to. The flexible control over Kepler's next two seasons enables Seattle to keep the door open for both, while gaining reliable veteran stability as they push to take the next step in the interim. From Minnesota's perspective, what makes Seattle an intriguing partner is their abundance of young pitching. In addition to veteran stalwarts Robbie Ray and Marco Gonzales, as well as deadline acquisition Luis Castillo, the Mariners had three different pitchers 27 and under in 2022 who made 25+ starts with an ERA of 3.73 or lower (George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Chris Flexen). Kirby or Gilbert would likely not be on the table unless Minnesota offered significantly more than Kepler. But Flexen seems attainable, if not one of Seattle's many relief arms or mid-tier prospects. What do you think? Which teams strike you as the best trade partners for Kepler, and what would a realistic return look like? View full article

As Carlos Correa weighs his options and moves closer to a decision, it's clear the Minnesota Twins are among the finalists for this premier free agent and superstar. That's exciting! But the excitement will vanish if we learn tomorrow that Correa's going with the Giants or Cubs and leaving the Twins in the lurch. How likely is that to happen? Let's get caught up on the latest. Image courtesy of Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports Without question, the Twins remain intensely focused on their pursuit of Carlos Correa, which seems to be pushing all other offseason priorities to the backburner. Every report on the shortstop's market seems to name them among top remaining suitors, including this latest one from Jon Heyman on Saturday listing the Twins, Giants and Cubs among the "teams in on" Correa. More recently, the Yankees have emerged as a known contender for Correa's services, even after inking Aaron Judge to his landmark deal. ESPN's Buster Olney reported that he's "definitely picking up a lot of vibes there that yeah they signed Aaron Judge to that $360 million deal, but they’re working on something big." It's natural for hometown fans to be skeptical of Minnesota's legitimate involvement at this stage against multiple big-market titans for a free agent likely to land $300M+ guaranteed. But outsiders don't necessarily share that skepticism, including Vegas. As the website OddsChecker.com pointed out a couple days back, "The Twins are given -150 odds to retain Correa, that’s an implied 60% chance. The San Francisco Giants are right behind them though, as they’re given EVEN odds, an implied 50% chance, to land the star shortstop." It's unclear exactly when Correa will make a decision. The pressure is turning up on the Twins as time passes, because their contingency plans have rapidly come off the table. Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts have already signed. The idea of pivoting to another big bat like Jose Abreu, Willson Contreras or Brandon Nimmo is also diminishing as all those players are off the table. Carlos Rodon remains at the top of the free agent pitching pool, but his market is robust. Dan Hayes reported that the Twins are viewing Dansby Swanson as a possible Correa fallback option, having met with the shortstop via video call during the Winter Meetings, but personally I hope (and suspect) that's merely a negotiating ploy to parry against Scott Boras, who is understandably doing all he can to land his client an epic payday. You see it in small, subtle details like Heyman – a known friend if not mouthpiece of Boras – making a point to note Correa's appealing traits in a tweet updating his market. You see it in the fact Correa's free agency continues to linger as his camp evidently plays bidders against one another to run up the price. Eleven-year deals for Turner and Bogaerts set a sharp precedent, and really give Correa and Boras the ability to set their own terms. Up to this point, the Twins still seem genuinely invested in meeting them. How long will they hang around if the cost keeps rising? How long can we maintain our sanity as this saga drags on and the front office remains stalled out? Soon enough, the dominoes will begin to drop. It's probably a stretch to call the Twins favorites but without a doubt, they are in there. Would have been difficult to fathom just a few short years ago. View full article

Correa would have an automatic no-trade clause after the first four seasons (10-5 rule) so I think it's kind of immaterial.

The alternative to signing Correa is that this FO has to find better ways to spend that $40M. You don't seem confident in them, so why wouldn't you rather just take the "safe route" with a proven nucleus of superstar players instead of trying to cobble together mid-tier guys? I would say it worked out pretty well with Buxton and Correa this year, they were both 4-win players and worth a combined $65M according to Fangraphs.

Ahh gotcha. I guess I view it as creative in that it's never been done quite at this scale, to this extreme, and certainly not by a team like the Twins. Very true though that contracts like Arenado's and Hosmer's have pushed in this direction.

If you wanna play that "what if" game you'll never sign an elite free agent in the entire existence of your franchise. They'd be betting on their ability to develop cost-efficient pitching, but I'm okay with that. Even at a 150M payroll, I'm good with allocating $55M on two up-the-middle superstars in their prime in Correa and Buxton and building around them.

Could you name one? There has never been a front-loaded $300M contract signed in MLB history, let alone one with an option layout like this. I'm not sure what you mean by "structured this way" other than the vaguest of generalizations.

With the Winter Meetings now less than a week away, the Twins appear fully invested for the moment in their pursuit of top free agent target Carlos Correa. As they vie for his services against big-market titans with bottomless coffers, there's been much talk of the front office's efforts to 'get creative' in frameworks for a deal. What might a contract look like that Correa would actually accept? Image courtesy of Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports The mutual affinity between Carlos Correa and the Twins does seem genuine. He appears very open to returning, and is at the very least giving Minnesota the time of day by entertaining offers, which is something we've rarely been able to say about top-tier free agents in past years. There have been reports of the Twins submitting multiple different proposals to Correa's camp, as the front office gets creative in trying to put forth a framework that entices him away from other monster offers he's sure to receive – while also not being so risk-filled and player-friendly as to defy their sensibilities. That's a very difficult line to walk. Signing Correa would obviously be a precedent-shattering move for this franchise, at any level, and by all accounts they are ready to take that step. But it doesn't mean they'll hand Scott Boras a blank check. Is there a way the Twins could win the bidding for Correa without actually having the largest guaranteed offer? Is there are practical structure for a deal that doesn't force Derek Falvey and Thad Levine to abandon their regard for long-term planning? I think maybe I've got something. But you tell me if it works for both sides. Hypothetical Twins/Correa contract: 10 years, $325 million with two player opt-outs. Here's how it breaks down, year by year: Year 1: $40M Year 2: $40M Year 3: $40M Year 4: $40M *opt-out* Year 5: $30M Year 6: $30M Year 7: $30M *opt-out* Year 8: $25M Year 9: $25M Year 10: $25M It's a frontloaded contract that is essentially broken down into three parts. After earning $160 million in the first four years, Correa can opt out of six years and $165 million at age 32, or three years and $75 million at age 35. The reason this feels like a realistic concept is that I can look at it from both sides and talk myself into it, even while accounting for the front office's known tendencies and preferences. Why the Twins Like It In trying to come up with this theoretical contract, I presupposed two things from the team's point of view: They're willing to dish out huge salaries in the short term (they'd have happily paid out Correa's full three-year, $105 million contract), but they're deathly afraid of being burdened by gargantuan commitments for aging mid-30s players down the line. They recognize that player opt-outs are an effective mechanism for making contracts more appealing to players and their agents, but don't want to include them in a way that robs all of the team's upside from a deal. I believe the above framework satisfies their preferences on both fronts. The highest salaries are concentrated at the front of the contract, during Correa's prime years, so they'd be ostensibly paying most for his peak production. The diminishing salaries in the latter part of the deal reduce team downside to some extent should things go awry. Meanwhile, the opt-outs probably aren't too inhibiting. If Correa chooses to re-enter the market after four or six great years the Twins will have been happy to have gotten them. Why Correa and Boras Like It Well, for one thing, it's a legitimate all-time MLB free agent contract. Correa would tie Giancarlo Stanton and Corey Seager for the sixth-biggest guaranteed sum ever. His salary next year would be the highest for any position player in history, and second overall only to Max Scherzer ($43.3M). These things matter to Correa and Boras – not sheerly out of greed, as some would proclaim, but to pave the way for future players and contracts. It's no coincidence the past contract made Correa the highest-paid infielder ever, just by a hair. I also could see the frontloaded makeup of this framework having appeal to Correa, if he wants to be on himself an truly maximize his earnings. Should he tear it up while earning $160 million over the next four years, he could easily re-enter the market at 32 and seek another deal approaching $200 million. Could It Really Happen? Let's be clear: this contract would not only shatter precedence for the Twins, but for baseball at large. Of the 10 contracts that have ever been signed for $300 million or more, none came from teams outside of the major markets in Southern California, New York, Texas and Philadelphia. For Minnesota to be the first flyover mid-market club to break that barrier would be almost hilariously surreal, and yet, if ever there was a time I could see it happening, it's now. The Twins are ushering in a new era with a comprehensive rebrand and ownership shift. Out of sheer circumstance, they stumbled into getting acquainted with Correa and now have a verifiable IN with one of the most talented players in the world. They also have tremendously clear books going forward. Do I think it will happen? No, I still don't. But I've talked myself into there being a path. What say you all? View full article

I agree that those are all great players, but it's not because of RBIs. Realmuto?? He's never even had 85 RBIs in a season! Elite hitters in good lineups are going to have high RBI totals, inevitably. That's the point.

Over the past several weeks, we've been gradually releasing content for a 2023 Offseason Handbook chapter by chapter, focusing on the payroll and every area of need on the roster. Now, Caretakers can download the full 39-page PDF and get ready for Hot Stove action as the MLB Winter Meetings bear down upon us. This year marks the 12th straight in which we've produced the Twins Offseason Handbook, a tradition that predates even this website. Long ago, the idea was devised by John Bonnes, Seth Stohs, Parker Hageman and myself as a way to fully embrace the offseason and its exhilaratingly endless possibilities. The original vision was this: place the reader in position of Twins general manager and provide them with an "inside intel" document to inform and guide their decision-making. We supplied practical payroll constraints, along with profiles and contract estimates for dozens of free agents and trade targets spanning every position. Everything you need to build your own blueprint for a perfect offseason – realistic or outlandish, your choice. We've more or less stayed true to that vision ever since. In the new 2023 Offseason Handbook, we break Hot Stove preview down into six different sections. Payroll Projection and Analysis: A back-of-the-napkin overview from Bonnes. The Future of Shortstop: Carlos Correa pursuit, other free agents, internal pipeline. (Want a sample? You can download this chapter for free.) Reinforcing the Rotation: High-end free agent starters, trade targets, prospect ETAs. Framing the Catcher Market: The best of backstop free agency and trade market. Scouring FA for Relief Help: Which free agents could provide a legitimate bullpen boost? Hunting for a Big Bat: Impact players at corner IF, corner OF, and DH (like Jose Abreu). The full PDF, including all six chapters, is now available to download for Caretakers. If you haven't signed up as a Caretaker yet, it's a perfect time to do so because through today (Monday, November 28th) you can enter the promo code 'BLACKFRIDAY' to get 20% off any subscription. In addition to the Handbook, you'll get exclusive content like Matthew Trueblood's phenomenal piece on Kyle Farmer and Bomba Rates, plus early (only?) access to tickets for the Winter Meltdown – details coming soon. We sincerely appreciate everyone who supports our community in any way, whether its contributing as a Caretaker or just checking out the site occasionally and telling a friend. We've got big things planned, and we're hoping the Twins do too. Download the Offseason Handbook and use it to construct your own blueprint. View full article

For Twins fans who buy into analytics, as the front office does, Jose Abreu presents a paradox. He's an aging slugger with no defensive value – major red flags for a free agency pursuit. At the same time, there's plenty of (statistical!) evidence to suggest Abreu can provide exactly what Minnesota was missing in 2022. Image courtesy of Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports When you think back to this past year's team, and where it came up short, what comes to mind first? Some might point to late-inning bullpen lapses. Others will call out starters who couldn't stay healthy or pitch deep into games. These are valid answers, but for me, it's an offense that woefully underproduced because of a perpetual inability to cash in on scoring opportunities and keep key fixtures in the lineup. Despite generally a fielding a good group of hitters – at least up until the position corps became completely depleted late in the year – the Twins were shut out with stunning frequency, and they often gave their pitching staff no margin for error, which bit them time and time again. Enter: Jose Abreu. He's spent the past nine years terrorizing the Twins and other teams around the league from the heart of Chicago's lineup. Now he's a free agent, likely to be available on a shorter-term, high-AAV deal. When you look at the qualities that were amiss from Minnesota's lineup in 2022, you basically find them all present in Abreu's profile. The 35-year-old has been ridiculously durable, playing in 528 of a possible 546 games (97%) since 2019, with 145+ games played in all but one full season since he debuted in 2014. He obliterates left-handed pitching, with a career .925 OPS against southpaws. And above all, the man produces runs like an absolute machine. Last year he slashed .268/.366/.471 with RISP and in his career he's at .311/.389/.554. This, along with his reliable everyday presence in the lineup, helped him generate some of the gaudiest RBI totals in baseball over the course of his career. Since 2014 he ranks second among all MLB players with 863. Abreu has driven in 100-plus runs six times and led the league twice, including his MVP season in the truncated 2020. Of course, RBI is not a metric that's going to get a lot of resonance from the analytically inclined crowd. Including me! It tends to be a very overrated stat, reflecting opportunity and circumstance much more than individual excellence. In Abreu's case though, it does help tell the real story. He has been one of the most dependable, consistent run producers in all of baseball for nearly a decade. He is the prototype for an effective cleanup hitter. There's a reason the guy has received MVP votes in seven of his nine seasons. The analytical case against Abreu doesn't end with RBIs inflating his value. There's also the matter of his one-sided impact. As a defensively limited first baseman, Abreu doesn't add much in the field, helping explain why metrics like WAR view him in a relatively negative light despite his durability and production. Consider this: according to fWAR, Abreu has been a less valuable player on whole than Byron Buxton (12.3 to 11.1) since 2019, despite playing in literally almost twice as many games (528 to 279) and winning an MVP during that span. There's validity to this arithmetic. Baseball is a two-way sport, and you certainly can't build a whole team of Abreus. But there's evidence you kinda need at least ONE of those guys. One might look at Abreu's numbers at surface level and perceive a hitter in decline. In 2022 he hit a career-low 15 home runs, his total of 75 RBIs was his second-lowest for a full season, and his .824 OPS was down 36 points from his career mark. However, these figures need to be colored by the context of a depressed offensive environment and an underperforming lineup around him. Abreu's 133 OPS+ was his highest in a full season since 2017. His 40 doubles ranked sixth in the AL. A quick glance at his Statcast sliders does not give the impression of a guy who is wearing down in his mid-30s, with elite measures for exit velo and hard-hit rate. In the past season, Abreu produced an fWAR of 3.9. It was the second-highest since his rookie campaign back in 2014. Not exactly the most reassuring for a player who figures to command somewhere in the $20 million range annually. But consider this: Abreu's fWAR in 2022 was higher than Justin Morneau's (3.8) when he won the AL MVP in 2006. It was higher than Jim Thome's (3.1) in 108 games when he helped lead the Twins to a division title. It was in the same range as Nelson Cruz's (4.3) when he powered the Bomba Squad to 101 wins. These were the three best Twins teams of the past two decades, and all were supported in essential ways by cornerstone sluggers whose contributions are somewhat downplayed by advanced metrics. You can argue Morneau didn't deserve the MVP award in '06. You can argue Cruz's one-sided contribution prevented him from being the team's MVP in '19 (we named Max Kepler for that reason). But can anyone, from the oldest-school to newest-age mentality, plausibly claim these players were not integral to their team's resounding success? At its core, analytics is about analyzing what has happened to form insights for the future. We've watched Cruz – who had the same value-oriented quibbles back in 2019, as an aging slugger with no defensive value – become the most impactful free agent signing in franchise history. Incidentally, Cruz ranks right behind Abreu at third among MLB hitters in RBIs since 2014. No, runs batted in are not predictive indicators of value. But they are indicators of something: the demonstrated ability to stay on the field and consistently generate offense. Minnesota has been lacking for these traits since Cruz left – in 2022, they had only three players reach 500 plate appearances, and no one drove in even 70 runs. (Jose Miranda's 66 RBIs were the lowest total to lead a Twins team in a full season since John Castino's 64 in 1980.) Abreu is the elixir this lineup needs to reach the next level, and the Twins are well equipped to handle his defensive limitations, since they have no full-time DH and all of their current options at first base – Miranda, Alex Kirilloff, Luis Arraez – are capable of playing elsewhere. The fit here is very obvious once you zoom out past a myopic lens of what constitutes value. Abreu is in the same mold as the most celebrated and difference-making free agent signings in Twins history, and he's precisely what their lineup was missing in 2022. You can read more about Abreu, plus many more options available at positions of need for the Twins, by download the complete Offseason Handbook, now available to Caretakers! View full article

The Twins have been relatively busy early in the offseason, with a couple of trades reshaping their infield outlook and an embattled reliever receiving a controversial contract tender. Read on to catch up on what the front office has done so far and where the roster currently stands. Image courtesy of Brad Rempel and Scott Taetsch-USA TODAY Sports Since we last checked in, the Twins have made news with a number of noteworthy moves: trading third baseman Gio Urshela, acquiring shortstop Kyle Farmer, tendering reliever Emilio Pagan. Let's take a quick look at the details behind each of these decisions, and where they leave the state of the roster as the Winter Meetings fast approach on December 4th. Twins Trade Urshela to Angels Just ahead of the arbitration contract tender deadline on November 18th, the Twins shipped one of their eligible players – the most difficult decision among them – to the Angels in exchange for minor-league pitcher Alejandro Hidalgo. A 19-year-old right-hander who hasn't yet advanced past Low-A ball, Hidalgo is a modestly intriguing young arm, but the return for Urshela was expectedly small. He's a valuable player, but at his projected arbitration cost in the $9 million range, a bit less appealing – especially for a Twins team that hopes to usher Jose Miranda in as regular third baseman next year. For the Angels, Urshela is an odd fit. Like the Twins, they seem to view him as strictly a corner infielder ... but they already have Anthony Rendon and Jared Walsh entrenched at third and first, with Shohei Ohtani typically occupying DH. It is very difficult to understand LA's motivation in making this move from the current view. Hidalgo's your usual big-stuff/bad-control lotto ticket. Certainly a preferable outcome to non-tendering Urshela for nothing in return. Pagan Is Coming Back for Another Year With Urshela shipped out, the Twins tendered contracts to all of their remaining arbitration-eligible players – including, controversially, the embattled Pagan. He'll earn a projected $3.7 million in his final year of team control, coming off a season where he earned the ire of fans with numerous lapses in crucial moments. He was the poster child for a bullpen that helped derail a promising Twins season. Now we'll see if he can become the figurehead for its triumphant turnaround. Amidst all the backlash this decision understandably provoked, I tried to explore the team's reasoning, noting that Pagan saw improved results down the stretch with a pitch mix change under pitching coaches Pete Maki and Colby Suggs. It's hard to give up on stuff of that caliber, and the upside it entails. While many fans struggle to make sense of it, Pagan does seem to be viewed much more highly in baseball circles than from the outside. Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported that the reliever "drew much more interest" than Urshela ahead of the non-tender deadline. Farmer Enters the Fold Not long after parting with some veteran depth in Urshela, the Twins quickly backfilled with the addition of Farmer, acquired from the Reds in exchange for minor-league righty Casey Legumina. This deal was, in many ways, the reverse of the Urshela trade: Farmer is a valuable enough player, but wasn't that valuable to Cincinnati at his arbitration price point, so they sent him to a team that could use the depth in exchange for a pitching flier. In this case, it's much easier to see the fit for Farmer, who could fill a number of different roles depending on what the Twins do elsewhere. For now, he's slotted in as their starting shortstop, and an adequate interim fill-in for Royce Lewis if that is the front office's leaning. In addition to his defensive flexibility, one aspect of Farmer's profile that surely attracted the Twins is his excellence against left-handed pitching. This looks like an effort to offset one of the offense's key weaknesses in 2021, when they slashed .240/.310/.391 against southpaws. Twins Showing Interest in Rodon Hayes wrote in a roster projection column over the weekend that the team has "definite interest" in Carlos Rodon, which comes as no surprise. However, Hayes adds, "his contract is likely to soar to areas it might not feel comfortable paying, perhaps as high as $160 million over five years." In a column unpacking the troubling realities of buying high on free agent pitching, I examined this very conundrum: Rodon is exactly the kind of proven ace that the Twins should be looking to land this offseason. He's a dominant force coming off an excellent season, and his addition would energize the fanbase while fortifying the rotation. But, he's also entering the market at peak value, have pressed a career-high workload upon a shoulder that has endlessly tormented him. With Rodon, you're going to be paying purely for the upside we just saw, and hoping it sustains. And the price tag will be quite high, with the free-spending Dodgers already in the mix as suitors. One Current Opening on the 40-Man Roster As a sum result of all this moving and shaking, along with the additions of prospects Edouard Julien, Brent Headrick, and Matt Canterino to protect them from the Rule 5 draft, Minnesota's 40-man roster currently stands at 39: Should the Twins need to be make room for more additions, the most vulnerable 40-man spots likely belong to Mark Contreras, Cole Sands, and Trevor Megill. Roster and Payroll Projection: v2 In looking at the projected 2023 roster in its current form, you can see how the Twins are setting a floor. They've basically got all they need to field a competent ballclub next year: a rotation with five proven big-league starters, a fairly deep bullpen with back-end power, and a credible – albeit somewhat underwhelming on whole – stable of position players. The only openings are a backup catcher and utility infielder for the bench, easily filled. That is not to say going forward with this group would be acceptable in anyone's eyes. But the point is that the Twins aren't backed into any corners, needing to allocate their funds in any specific way – just how they like it. With nearly $50 million in spending room just to get back to the 2022 payroll baseline, we'll see how opportunistic this front office can be, free from any kind of restraint. If you want to read up on all of the team's many options available at positions across the board, the Offseason Handbook is now available in full to download, with 39 pages covering the Hot Stove landscape from every angle. It's free to all Caretakers! Grab a copy and build your own 2023 blueprint. View full article

Sign Eovaldi. Or some other pitcher you like whose value is not inflated to an extreme degree. Or, find a way to get it done with someone you can truly count on like Verlander or deGrom. I absolutely do not think standing pat is an option. (And, to be clear, I'd love it if the Twins signed Rodon. I'm not arguing against that path, more trying to articulate what I see as the argument against that path via the lens this front office tends to use.)

How'd Rodon do in those seasons? How about Robbie Ray in his pre-2021 career? This is the point in play here: all but the most elite pitchers are so volatile from year to year. Does it really make sense to pay for them at their absolute peak value, when it means a long-term contract you'll be feeling the effects of for many years?

He wasn't in 2022. He very much was in 2021. Same can be said for Robbie Ray. People would've been thrilled if the Twins signed Ray last year, not so much this year. But he's the same pitcher. You see what I'm getting at? If your criteria for "front of the rotation starter" is entirely defined by what the guy did in the previous season, you are all but assured to overpay on every occasion. If you're a bit more open-minded, that's how you land guys like Kenta Maeda, Charlie Morton, Tyler Anderson, etc. I just think it's a more realistic and practical path for a team like the Twins.

Spending big on free agent pitchers is a high-wire act by nature, as it involves making exorbitant commitments to aging arms that are often amid temporary peaks in value. It is, needless to say, a pursuit the Minnesota Twins have largely opted to avoid – much to the lament of many fans. This offseason, they may have little choice but to set their scruples aside and overspend on the boom-or-bust frontline starter they need. Exciting, but precarious. Image courtesy of Image courtesy of Stan Szeto, USA Today When you look at data around aging curves for major-league pitchers, it matches up to what you'd expect: as a group, they are most effective between the ages of roughly 24 to 28 before inevitably experiencing decline at varying scales. This makes sense, of course. As pitchers get older, their innings mount, their bodies wear down, and the league gets wise to all of their tricks. We see the cycle play out time and time again. Sure, there are some pitchers who manage to evade the ravages of age, but they are rare and beyond prized. For every Jacob deGrom, who keeps chugging along into his mid-30s, or even every Justin Verlander, who's on top of his game at age 40, there are many examples of fleeting greatness. Sometimes the drop-off is quite sudden. Madison Bumgarner was one of the game's greats throughout his 20s as a Giant but completely unraveled at age 30 after signing with Arizona. Hyun-Jin Ryu had a brief run of pure excellence for the Dodgers but has wilted in his mid-30s in Toronto. The Twins have been thankful to avoid free agent landmines like these – pitchers who entered the market with relatively high stocks and cashed in, only to fall victim to the curve, leaving their new clubs in a tough spot with lingering implications. (The D-backs owe Bumgarner $23 million next year coming off a 4.88 ERA; the Blue Jays owe Ryu $20 million after he posted a 5.67 ERA in 27 innings.) Slam-dunk pitchers like deGrom and Verlander do pop up in free agency, but because of their rarity they have their pick of big-market titans who can outflex the field. These guys are simply out of range for the Twins, and most other teams. The more common and accessible free agents are those like Bumgarner and Ryu types: pitchers in the early stage of the aging curve's declining trendline, looking to get paid off what they did in their prime. Robbie Ray is a perfectly good example from one year ago. He was the definition of a buy-high candidate, coming off a breakout age-29 season where he won the Cy Young while leading the league in ERA and strikeouts. The Mariners bought high with a $115 million contract that was eclipsed only Max Scherzer's $130 million deal with the Mets. During his first year in Seattle, Ray was ... meh. Certainly not a disaster, but a shining example of the dangers in overpaying for assets that are likely to depreciate quickly. Ray posted a 3.71 ERA, 4.16 FIP, and 1.8 fWAR in 189 innings. He was an average-ish mid-rotation starter making $21 million, and slated to make $44 million over the next two years. What's more, Ray's player-friendly contract includes an opt-out after 2024, meaning that if his performance continues to trend this way, Seattle will owe him another $50 million for his age 33 and 34 seasons. But if he returns to form, he can re-enter the market after two more years. Seattle's already been robbed of much of this deal's upside due to Ray's mediocre first season. The fact that Ray procured such a favorable contract coming off his only great season speaks to the leverage higher-end free agent pitchers enjoy during Hot Stove negotiations. Which brings our attention to the focus of today's discussion: Carlos Rodón. The parallels between Ray's situation last year and Rodón's this year are unmissable. Both are left-handers entering the market at age 30, coming off career seasons. Both had extremely suspect track records prior to their star turns, which came during short-term deals for that reason. The uncertainties shrouding these two players weren't of the same exact ilk – Ray's more performance-based, Rodón's more health-related – but both players carried obvious and notable risk. Last offseason, Ray wasn't the best free agent starter. Not in a class that featured future Hall of Famers like Scherzer, Verlander, and Clayton Kershaw. But he was the arguably the best starter who felt realistically available to mid-market teams like Seattle or Minnesota. And this year Rodón is in a similar position, albeit with sparser competition at the top tier. (Chris Bassitt is a far cry from Kevin Gausman.) Rodón has been one of the best starting pitchers in baseball over the past two seasons, a true ace in every sense of the word. He's been mostly healthy, with the exception of a shoulder scare in late 2021. There's much to like. But the magnitude of risk in handing out a mega-deal to Rodón weighs very heavily on a team with spending constraints (self-imposed as they might be). The shoulder woes have surfaced time and again, wiping out most of his ostensible prime years. He's coming off a career-high workload and heading into his 30s. As Twins fans know all too well, shoulder injuries are pernicious. The downside with Rodón isn't that he'll follow Ray's route and revert to middling performance levels, but that he won't be able to pitch at all. Or he'll become entangled in lengthy cycles of starts, stops, and setbacks, all while accounting for about one-fifth of the payroll year after year. That's undeniably a scary specter, and knowing what we know about the Twins front office and their particular aversion to these kinds of flexibility-inhibiting scenarios, it's easy to see why they've tended to stay away. But this offseason is different. If the Twins miss out on Carlos Correa, it almost feels like they HAVE to find a way to sign Rodón in order for the winter to be considered a resounding success, and to build widespread excitement for the 2023 product. Most other big-splash type moves that are within their range would be somewhat underwhelming as marquee headliner, at a time where they just lost a premier superstar, and had unprecedented spending power as a result. This is not just a matter of optics and PR. It's hard to imagine any singular move, outside of signing one of the top four shortstops, capable of making such a massive impact on the team's quality and upside. Adding Rodón atop the rotation would transform the outlook for that unit and the pitching staff as a whole. Coming off back-to-back Cy Young-caliber seasons, Rodón would be a worthy centerpiece of the offseason from any vantage. So how much would this gamble cost? If we suppose that Rodón is open-minded and simply looking for the best deal, it becomes a straightforward bidding war – albeit one with high stakes and some imposing competition. The left-hander is reportedly receiving early interest from the Dodgers, Mets, and Rangers, among others. The Rangers are said to be one of his most serious suitors, and they exemplify the type of uphill battle Minnesota's front office faces in this pursuit. Texas spent more than half a billion in free agency last offseason alone. With such a free-wheeling mindset, made possible by operating in a top-five market, they can more easily sink big money into shaky investments – like, say, signing Corey Seager for $32 million annually through age 37 – and worry about the repercussions later. For the Twins, it's a different ballgame. The stakes are graver, the downside greater. And depending on Rodón's personal preferences, it might take a significant outbid to woo him from more attractive destinations. It's hard to know exactly where the southpaw's contract figure might land, when you factor in all the risk and all the reward. One article in The Athletic projected five years and $160 million, which is higher than I've seen elsewhere but certainly within reason. For the Twins to make it happen, they might need to get creative with a contract framework that leans strongly in the player's favor – a Scott Boras specialty. Again, you can make a good case to say "screw it, just make the deal happen, whatever it takes." But then, I come back to this front office and what we know about them. As much as they might like Rodón and the fit, it would be very uncharacteristic to outslug a bunch of heavy-hitters in an all-out auction for a peaking asset. What seems much more likely is that they'll turn to other pitchers near the top of the remaining free agent starter pool in search of real upside without the extreme "buy-high" dynamic. One name that really stands out in this group is Nathan Eovaldi. He's got the credentials, the big stage experience, the power fastball. In 2021 he finished fourth in the Cy Young voting with 5.7 fWAR, placing him at the premier class of MLB starters. In 2022 he took a step back, with production that was more or less Robbie Ray-esque. Unlike Rodón and Ray, Eovaldi is not a buy-high target. Unfortunately for him, the right-hander's date with free agency came a year too late for that. He'll still get paid handsomely but the proposition should be much less daunting for a team like the Twins. How much less realistic upside does Eovaldi bring to the table compared to Rodón and Ray, relative to the chasmic difference in cost? If you look at 2022 in isolation, far less, but results aren't that dependably consistent from year to year. To prove that, look no further than all of the dudes we're talking about here. Signing Rodón feels, in some ways, like a move the Twins need to make, should they miss out on Correa. But turning away from the feeding frenzy and focusing on an arm like Eovaldi would be much more on-brand, while still showing a touch of boldness. He would very likely be the most expensive free agent pitcher signing in franchise history, and a plausible upgrade from Sonny Gray in the #1 rotation spot. This course would also allow the Twins to save some coin and spread more of it to other needs, while still addressing the rotation in a meaningful, emphatic way. View full article