Nick Nelson

Today's Caretaker-only audio diary offers everything you need to know about Monday's spring training game against the Red Sox, all in under 18 minutes. After getting back from Monday's 4-1 loss to the Red Sox at JetBlue Park, I sat down to record some thoughts from the game, touching on topics such as: Pablo López's strong Twins debut, in which he struck out three over two scoreless frames. Jorgé López's slightly less impressive spring training debut, which was marred by command issues but did see him touch 97 MPH on the gun. (Which he was pleasantly surprised with.) A good day for Max Kepler, who batted leadoff and managed to sneak a ground ball single past the now-limited infield shift. A smattering of thoughts on other players like Austin Martin, Nick Gordon, and Red Sox starter Kutter Crawford who has an 80-grade pitcher name. I also for some reason attempted to improvise a theme song for this newly developed audio diary feature, and that didn't go so well. If you wish to avoid it, I recommend skipping the first 10 seconds or so. If you're a Caretaker, just scroll down for your exclusive content! And if you're not, maybe consider becoming a Caretaker? You likely visit regularly, and that's going to become even more likely as the season gears up. Supporting something you value feels good, especially when it's been here feeding your baseball habit for over 10 years for free, right? We're in spring training reporting because we love this stuff, and we want to share it as much as we can, so you can find lot of free content from Fort Myers other places on the site. But unfortunately, spring training is expensive, and that's especially true this year after Hurricane Ian damaged a lot of the lodging options. Plus, there are lot of other benefits, like a free Winter Meltdown ticket and early access for guest, special callouts on the site, and lots more inside or in-depth content like this. So please consider joining our little club. The money is going to a site you love, to support coverage you love, and writers you value. Thank you so much. Join Here to support Twins Daily and get your exclusive content! View full article

CLEARWATER, FL–Rocco Baldelli and a collection of Twins players made the two-hour trip from Fort Myers to Clearwater on Sunday to face the defending National League champion Phillies. Having arrived in Florida over the weekend, I too made the road trip and watched from the stands. Here are five takeaways that stuck with me on the long drive back. Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports If you're familiar with the dynamics of spring training, then you know it's uncommon for established veteran regulars to make long road trips, and that was certainly true of this game, which featured José Miranda as the only regular present in the lineup. There were, however, several notable players involved in the game, including 2022 Twins Opening Day starter Joe Ryan, who made his first outing of the spring. His performance ranked among the five most striking observations I came away with in a 10-8 Phillies victory at BayCare Ballpark. 1: My first impressions of the pitch clock The addition of a pitch clock this year represents one of the most significant and impactful rule changes in Major League Baseball for some time, so naturally I was eager to see it in action. There's been a lot of early handwringing from various corners about how distracting and disruptive it is. To me it seemed like ... not a big deal? It'd be tough to call the pitch clock unnoticeable, given the big digital countdown timer that now adorns the backstop, ticking off seconds from a starting point of 0:15, 0:20, or 0:25, depending on the game situation. The speedier pace of the game was definitely noticeable, especially in this case – a 10-8 spring training game is the kind of high-scoring affair that often drags on for nearly four hours, leaving everyone involved in a grumpy mood, but this one wrapped up in just over three (3:06, to be exact). I definitely got the sense that both pitchers and hitters were more intentional about readying up and doing their thing, but no one seemed especially rushed. Ryan, who started for the Twins, has always moved at a pretty good pace and he was flying, typically delivering his pitches with seven or eight seconds left on the clock. 2: Joe Ryan experiments with new pitches Ryan's velocity was good in this outing, sitting in the 92-93 MPH range regularly on the stadium radar and reaching as high as 94.3 MPH, which he seemed very pleased with. Of course, Ryan's fastball is not in question. It was the best pitch on the staff last year. Ryan's lack of overpowering secondary stuff is what limits his upside, and it's clearly something he's focused on addressing in his sophomore season, as he aims to refine a sweeping slider with more horizontal movement and a split changeup. Ryan's outing was not especially smooth – he needed 40 pitches to get four outs before being removed in the second inning – but that's forgivable in his first spring start, and even more so with the experimentation going on. And Ryan seemed pleased on that front as well. 3: Edouard Julien bats leadoff The big uncertainty in the wake of the Luis Arraez trade was ... who's going to replace what he brought to the table? Julien was a name that came to mind for many people (including myself) – he's been a lefty-swinging OBP machine in the minors, with no clear positional fit, harkening to Arraez in multiple ways. Julien was fittingly in the leadoff spot on Sunday in Clearwater. As expected, he took a lot of pitches ... but not with successful results on this occasion. The second baseman struck out in all three of his at-bats, including on called third strikes in both of his first two. For any prospect who draws way more walks than you'd expect based on his hitting ability, the question with Julien was whether his on-base skills owed more to patience or passivity. Games like Sunday's point toward the latter, and that's a perception he'll need to prove his way out of. But, it's only one game. 4: Big bases come in handy The new larger bases are not conspicuous to the naked eye – at least not mine – but there's no doubt they will come into play throughout the upcoming season in very subtle ways. We might've seen an example on Sunday. Miranda reached first base in the first inning, and seemed like he was inclined to steal second. During the next at-bat, he took a huge running lead on one pitch before Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto whipped the ball over to first in an effort to pick him off. Miranda scrambled back to the base, and seemed to be dead in the water. Yet, he was safe, getting his fingertip on the bag just in time to beat the tag. I feel confident in saying it's the first time a Twins baserunner has been saved by the bigger bases. I'm sure it won't be the last. 5: Trevor Megill struggles mightily Outside of Ryan, the only projected member of the Twins pitching staff to appear in this game was Megill, but he's hurting his chances. There aren't many true position battles happening this spring, which detracts from the drama a bit, but Megill is certainly fighting for one of the last bullpen spots. The Twins love his power pitch mix, which was on display as his fastball reached 97 MPH multiple times, but the righty continues to struggle with execution, and his outing on Sunday was flat-out ugly. Megill simply could not seem to find the zone, and when he did, he got crushed. While recording only one out, he gave up three walks and three hits, including two home runs – one of which was a grand slam. He threw only 14 of 33 pitches for strikes and mixed in a wild pitch for good measure. The first spring training appearance should be treated for what it is, but Megill isn't exactly on firm footing – he was a waiver pickup who posted a 4.80 ERA last year, including 7.66 after August 1st. His brutal first outing of the spring leaves him with a 162.00 ERA which will make it almost impossible to finish the exhibition season with decent numbers. And the timing of this clunker was especially bad on a day where the Twins brought in two new right-handed relievers: Dennis Santana (waivers) and Jeff Hoffman (minors deal). On Monday, Pablo López and the Twins face the Red Sox at JetBlue Park. We'll have plenty of coverage, with myself and John Bonnes both in the building. Make sure to check back and find all of the key takeaways from this one. View full article

With a new season soon to get underway, the Minnesota Twins arguably have a new top prospect in the system for the fourth time in as many springs. Looking back through top emerging talents of years past – even while limiting our sample to the past decade – serves as a powerful reminder of the folly in casting confident outlooks for even the most 'sure thing' prospects. Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson, Jonathan Dyer, Jesse Johnson, USA Today Sports MLB prospect rankings were tough to find back in the early 1980s. Coverage of the minor leagues was not exactly prominent before the internet's takeover. However, Baseball America does have archives of its rankings dating back to that time, which is pretty fun. You may be unsurprised to learn that in 1984, ahead of his major-league arrival, Kirby Puckett ranked No. 1 on Baseball America's prospect list for the Twins. It was well earned. Drafted third overall in '82, he was an immediate sensation, batting .382 in his pro debut and reaching the majors for good within two years. Little did anyone know back then, but Puckett would go on to epitomize the thrilling highs and tragic lows that can come with a life in pro baseball – the variance involved in even a legendary Hall of Fame career. He was a shining star of the game for 10 years, and a World Series hero, before it all came crashing down in sudden and devastating fashion. "Don't take it for granted,'' Puckett reportedly told his teammates in 1996, after informing them of his retirement due to an irreversible eye condition. "Tomorrow is not promised to any of us, so enjoy yourself.'' His post-playing life became an even sadder story, but I'm not looking to dwell on that. Instead, I want to reflect on his parting sentiments toward the game, his fellow players, and his fans. Puckett was fortunate (as were we) that he was able to achieve the iconic heights he did. The same can be said for subsequent top prospects and MVPs like Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. These players had the chance to establish their enduring legacies, even if all three primes were cut short by freak injuries beyond their control. In recent years, we've seen that even a truncated run of notoriety like theirs is by no means assured for the brightest and most touted talents to come through the franchise. A lookback through the successive No. 1-ranked prospects in the organization over the past 10 years, according Twins Daily's lists, reminds us that even for the most promising, nothing is ever promised. Hopefully it also provides a bit of valuable perspective, with a nod to Kirby's advice about enjoying today and not worrying about tomorrow. Twins Daily #1 Prospects Over the Years Byron Buxton: 2013-16 Thirty years after Puck, Buck came along and followed right in his footsteps: high school star center fielder turned top-three draft pick turned immediate pro success. Buxton quickly emerged as the consensus No. 1 prospect in all of baseball and reached the majors by age 21. As we know, it's been anything but a storybook journey for him since then. The tools and talents that earned Buxton such prospect praise have been fully on display in between endless and excruciating bouts with injury. He enters this year surrounded by an especially high degree of uncertainty as he looks to move past a recurring knee issue some fear to be chronic. While much of his tale thankfully remains to be written, Buxton's turbulent journey to this point perfectly summarizes the theme of this list: everything he can control has gone right, and everything he can't, has not. Fernando Romero: 2017 Once Buxton had officially graduated to major-league status, a void opened in his entrenched perch atop Twins top prospect rankings. Different outlets went different directions, breaking with the firm consensus that ruled Buxton's reign, but TD's panelists chose Fernando Romero. The big right-hander had seemingly overcome his own gauntlet of injuries to re-emerge as a fireballing ace prototype with velocity, spin, command, and mound presence. Of course, this optimistic forecast never came close to materializing, and in his case, we can't chalk it up as much more than an age-old example of the encouraging young arm plateauing and fizzling out at the highest level. Romero struggled over 26 appearances with the Twins between 2018-19, and hasn't been back to the majors since. He spent the past two seasons playing in Japan, with mediocre numbers. Royce Lewis: 2018-20 When you get selected at the very top of the draft and immediately start performing in the minors, it's a natural path to the No. 1 prospect spot, which is why Buxton held it down for four straight years, and why Lewis opened up his own three-year reign shortly thereafter. Then, Lewis began his own battle with uncontrollable adversity. The shortstop was creeping toward MLB-readiness in 2020 when the COVID pandemic wiped out an entire minor-league season. During the following winter, he tore his ACL slipping on ice, requiring surgery that erased his 2021 season. Shortly after returning to the field following a lengthy rehab, he re-tore the same ACL in an outfield wall collision. He's again on the rehab track and aiming to return midseason, at which point he'll have played 46 official games in the past three-and-a-half years. Alex Kirilloff: 2021 No minor-league baseball was played during the 2020 season, so there wasn't much movement among returning players on our list the following year. We did, however, elevate Kirilloff to No. 1 on the basis of a loud showing at the team's St. Paul training site that culminated with an MLB debut in the playoffs. He'd already gone through his own cruel rite of passage as a Twins top prospect, losing a season of development in the minors to Tommy John surgery, but Kirilllof had seemingly come out on the other side. He got the official call-up in 2021 and looked like he was in the majors to stay before a wrist injury surfaced and sent his ascendant career spinning off the rails. Almost two years later, he's still trying to get it back on track, following a second surgery on the same wrist. Early signs are good, but Derek Falvey painted a stark picture of finality regarding the success (or non-success) of this last-ditch effort a salvage a career threatening to grind to a halt almost before it starts. "He’s never coming in at the end of the day, walking into that room and going, ‘Hey, I’ve got some soreness,’ " Falvey told reporters. “At this point, that’s all we can do because as you all know, this is the procedure. There’s not another one. This needs to work." Austin Martin: 2022 The headliner of 2021's José Berríos trade, Martin went straight to Double-A after being drafted and led the league in on-base percentage while showing stellar speed, contact skills, and strike zone control. With Kirilloff graduating and Lewis coming off two straight missed seasons, Martin overtook the top spot on our list. He followed up with an underwhelming encore at the same level, tarnishing his prospect luster, but the 23-year-old should not be discounted as a factor going forward. The same standout traits mentioned above were still intact even as his modest power evaporated, and talent is talent. Like Romero, Martin's drop-off is seemingly a more standard story of stalling player development than catastrophic bad fortune, but unlike Romero, he still has plenty of time to reverse course and show this was nothing more than a bump in the road. At the very least, Martin seems destined to pan out as a useful big-leaguer player, if not a star, and that's a (generally common) middle-of-the-road outcome that's been rare in these ranks. Brooks Lee: 2023 Alas, we arrive at The New Guy. Lee joined the organization as the No. 8 overall pick last summer, and he followed the tried-and-true path of Buxton, Lewis, and Martin before him: from top draft pick to immediate producer to No. 1 Twins prospect. As we've seen, the paths can diverge greatly from this initial juncture. By no means am I drawing out this pattern to place a hex on Lee (though one could argue, based on ample evidence, that he was cosmically hexed from the moment he was drafted by the Twins in the first round). I do think it sheds important context on the punishing nature of this profession, the lack of assurances for any player, and the importance of enjoying things in the moment. Things like Lee experiencing first major-league camp, or Lewis sprinting and smiling on the sidelines as he cheerily battles to overcome another setback. Each time Kirilloff swings and cracks a line drive with no ensuing wince, or Buxton springs up after a spectacular diving catch, it's something to appreciate because we've all seen how quickly and randomly it can all go away. People who obsess over following prospects, like myself, are apt to get overly caught up in projecting the future, and fixating on ceilings, and taking for granted that greatness will find a way. Sometimes, it doesn't. And even when it does, the moment can be fleeting. In fact, most often it is. No one knows what tomorrow will hold. And in large part, that's out of our hands. I think this is an important mindset for Twins fans to carry into a season that will inevitably be fraught with looming health concerns and triggering setbacks. My recommendation (and one I'll aspire to live by): Don't give into doomsday-ism, just enjoy the moment. Past does not dictate present or future. The Twins as a team will be setting out prove that following back-to-back disappointing seasons, and many of their former chart-topping prospects will be looking to support that cause by doing the same. View full article

I think they were talking about the general concept as opposed to the specific situation. Show faith in the players you believe in, do right by them, and you'll be rewarded. It's an approach that's legitimately paid dividends for them. You're right that this scenario is somewhat unique, but the Twins love to talk about getting creative!

Come again? Are you saying teams optionally choose to pay $3M to pre-arb players who are slated to make the league minimum salary? That doesn't happen. Yall are really exaggerating the likelihood of these outcomes. Royce Lewis is not Vlad Jr and he's not Juan Soto. Come on. Him getting $90-100M in his first 3 FA seasons would be an extreme best-case scenario, even if not for the knee injuries. It's incumbent on a player and his agent to be a little more realistic and grounded. I'd love to hear all the same arguments here being applied to Michael Harris, btw! There's a reason I used his example in the article. You can't say "No player would ever do this" when we have a pretty comparable example from 6 months ago. By your estimates Harris has probably cost himself tens of millions down the line but there's a give and take with the increased amount he's guaranteeing himself up until then.

I assume the Twins can option Lewis before they place him back on IL? Is that accurate? In that case he'd only get like half a season of MLB service this year (at most) and his free agency would be delayed by yet another season. Another incentive for him in accepting a deal like this. Eliminates having to worry about any of that at all.

I think the extent to which this proposed deal is team-friendly is being a little overblown. I know you hear "7 years, $34 million" for a player of Lewis' caliber and it seems egregious but in terms of baseball economics it's (sadly) really not. As things stand, Lewis will make like $2 million over the next three seasons as a pre-arb player. In the extension scenario, he's making $7 million during that span. The proposal has him making $17 million during this 3 arbitration seasons. If things go really well for him, he could make more than that? Hardly a lock. What it comes down to is the first year free agency buyout ($10M) and those two team options. I'm open to the idea of reworking the salaries or options at the back end, but the Twins are taking a huge leap of faith by guaranteeing $25M over the first 6 years given his current situation so they'd need to recoup some value potential there for it to make sense. Basically I tried to start with the Michael Harris framework and then scale down appropriately, from a healthy 21-year-old Rookie of the Year and MVP contender, to a soon-to-be 24-year-old with two weeks of MLB experience (and very little game action the past 3 years) coming off two straight reconstructive knee surgeries. Maybe I scaled down too much but ... realistically, it should be significant.

The former No. 1 overall draft pick faces an uncertain road ahead coming off back-to-back major knee injuries. The Twins are in position to alleviate that uncertainty with the security of a long-term deal. Is there a framework that makes sense for both sides? Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker, USA Today Sports Last week at The Athletic, Dan Hayes wrote a great story about Chris Paddack and why the right-hander was open to a three-year contract extension with the Twins as he rehabs from Tommy John surgery. On the surface, the $12.5 million pact seems immensely team-friendly, locking him down at $2.5 million in 2024 -- when he will ostensibly be back to full health -- and buying out his first free agent year for a mere $7.5 million. If Paddack, who recently turned 27, can return to pitching anywhere near the level he was at prior to surgery, he'll be an incredible bargain and an ultra-valuable asset for the rotation in 2024/25. But that can't be safely assumed coming off a second TJ surgery, and he gets it. “I’m always kind of gambling on myself,” he told Hayes. “If this was my first one, maybe we’re talking just a one- or two-year deal with risk and gambling on myself going into my contract year. But this is something I couldn’t pass up, man. It’s a win-win for me." Which brings us to Royce Lewis, who is facing his own version of Paddack's journey, and happens to have the same agent (Scott Boras). Lewis is rehabbing from a second consecutive tear of the same right ACL. His odds of returning to the field as an impact player are probably much higher than Paddack's, given the murky history of double-TJ pitchers, but the risks of going through this ordeal cannot be downplayed, especially for a player whose game is based on springy athleticism. Of course, the Twins' No. 2 prospect is in a very different situation career-wise compared to Paddack. By virtue of MLB's service system, Minnesota controls Lewis' rights for the next six years, including at a league-minimum salary for the next three. Many teams have exercised their leverage in this position to work out long-term contracts with highly touted young players who've barely played in the majors, if at all. (The Rays have become famous for it and the Braves just did it with Michael Harris II.) In the case of Harris, Atlanta locked down the 21-year-old outfielder for eight years and $72 million last August, midway through a Rookie of the Year debut. The contract buys out his first two free agency years with a pair of team options after that. Here's how it shakes out: 2023: $5 million 2024: $5 million 2025: $8 million 2026: $8 million 2027: $9 million 2028: $10 million 2029: $10 million 2030: $12 million 2031: $15 million club option ($5 million buyout) 2032: $20 million club option ($5 million buyout) The big draw for Harris in this arrangement, aside from the ultimate security of guaranteeing himself $72 million, is the elevation of his income in the next few years. Rather than earning the league minimum each year in 2023-25, he'll make $18 million total over those campaigns. Compared to Harris, Lewis obviously has a lot less bargaining power at the moment. He's three years older. He briefly debuted in the majors and looked good, but didn't make nearly so emphatic and convincing a statement as Harris. And of course, there's the knee injuries. Still, Harris contract might provide a helpful framework for thinking about a Lewis extension that makes sense for both sides: increased pre-arb paydays, as part of a total sum of guaranteed money that assures generational wealth, in return for cost-controlled years of arbitration and free agency, plus the flexibility of some team options at the back end. The proposal below amounts to roughly a seven-year, $34 million contract, buying out one year of free agency with an additional two team options on the back end (not entirely dissimilar from the extensions given to Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco, albeit further along in their development): 2023: $1M 2024: $3M 2025: $3M 2026: $5M 2027: $5M 2028: $7M 2029: $10M 2030: $12M team option ($1M buyout) 2031: $15M team option ($1M buyout) For the Twins, the incentive here is obvious -- adding a star-caliber talent in Lewis to the entrenched long-term core alongside Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa -- with cost certainty that fits nicely alongside their progressive salary allocations. (Notably, by the time Lewis reaches even a $10 million salary in this framework, Correa would already be into his option years with declining salaries.) The team downside is nominal: if Lewis completely fails to make it back and pan out as an effective MLB player, the Twins would be on the hook for a total sum of money slightly below Correa's 2023 salary. For Lewis, the incentive also should be obvious, but it might not be quite enough. Very possibly, he's inclined to bet on himself and aim for bigger paydays, especially if he's feeling really good at this stage of his recovery. No one would begrudge him. At the same time, should anyone be surprised if he and Boras are open to this kind of extension? Not only has Lewis seen his outlook become shrouded in doubt by two straight freak injuries to the same knee, but at a higher level, he's experienced the way this game can cruelly take things away from you, in ways that are completely out of your control. For what it's worth, he also seems to genuinely enjoy being a part of this organization, which could factor as well. If Lewis is looking for long-term security, the Twins should be welcoming that conversation with open arms. Even if the terms above are not agreeable, there's a lot of room for flexibility to still find a framework that makes a ton of sense for both sides. View full article

I figured I had to up the stakes this time 😎

We've spent the past few weeks revealing our choices for the top prospects in the Twins organization. Now, let's take a step back and assess the state of the system. Image courtesy of Thiéres Rabelo, Twins Daily The purpose of these rankings is to take stock of the Twins farm system leading up to the start of the season. This year we asked 10 different Twins Daily writers, all of whom follow the minors closely, to share their choices for the current top 30 Twins prospects. Then we aggregated them into the list that's been gradually rolled out here over the past few weeks. This is a snapshot in time. Prospect rankings are never static, and in order to better follow the movement that occurs over time, last year we launched the Twins Daily Prospect Tracker. It's updated monthly throughout the season with new stats, insights, and re-rankings. I recommend bookmarking that page and checking back often if you love to follow the next generation of Twins talent. For today, we're going to dive deep on that next generation and how it's shaping the future of the franchise. First, here's a rundown of this year's top 20 rankings – you can click on each player's name to find a profile on him from one of our writers. Minnesota Twins 2023 Top 20 Prospects 20. Misael Urbina, OF: Has come along slowly since signing as a top int'l talent out of DR in 2018, but still 20 with big tools. 19. Jose Rodriguez, OF: Opened eyes with a spectacular and rare power display in the Dominican Summer League. 18. Tanner Schobel, 2B: 2022 second-round pick saw his college power spike evaporate in pro debut, fading his hype. 17. Ronny Henriquez, RHP: Slider-slinging 22-year-old seems destined to break through in full-time relief role. 16. Jordan Balazovic, RHP: Stellar track record keeps him on the radar following a disastrous year at Triple-A. 15. Matt Canterino, RHP: Maybe the best raw stuff in the organization, but TJ surgery will sideline him again this year. 14. Noah Miller, SS: Outstanding fielder needs to find some semblance of offensive game other than drawing walks. 13. David Festa, RHP: Former 13th-rounder's domination of Single-A sparks hope for another deep-draft pitching find. 12. Yasser Mercedes, OF: Club's biggest int'l signing last summer flashed all five tools in highly impressive rookie-ball debut. 11. Matt Wallner, OF: His off-the-charts raw power will play in the bigs if he can stay relatively disciplined at plate. 10. Austin Martin, SS: Huge dropoff after topping this list a year ago, but the speedy OBP specialist can rebound. 9. Louie Varland, RHP: Continues to outperform his stuff, but also, the stuff continues to get better for hard-working SP. 8. Jose Salas, INF: Twins picked up a dynamic young athlete via Arraez trade in this versatile switch-hitting infielder. 7. Connor Prielipp, LHP: Slid to Twins in second round of latest draft coming off elbow surgery, but has frontline SP traits. 6. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP: Reached majors at age 22 following lights-out campaign between AA/AAA. 5. Edouard Julien, 2B: He has raked in the minors with an ultra-patient approach, and is knocking on MLB door. 4. Marco Raya, RHP: Word is out on the best-kept secret in Twins system, who dazzled in pro debut at Fort Myers. 3. Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF: Flashed superstar talent and production during full-season debut cut short by knee injury. 2. Royce Lewis, SS: Cemented legitimacy during a convincing return to action before being struck by another torn ACL. 1. Brooks Lee, SS: Drafted eighth overall with a bat that pretty much looked MLB-ready as soon as he reached the pro field. A True Deadlock at the Top The most fascinating dynamic of this year's rankings was the choice between Lee and Lewis for number one. I cannot possibly overstate how accurate the word "deadlock" is in describing the lack of separation between these high-end talents in our ranking process. The results from tabulating our panel of 10 voters placed the two in an exact tie: five voters picked Lewis, five picked Lee. In order to try and swing things one way or the other, we reached out for off-the-record opinions on the matter from a variety of trusted sources: scouting contacts, prospect analysts, baseball people inside the Twins organization and out. You know what came back? Pretty much a 50/50 split exactly. Almost everyone expressed a variation of the same sentiment: It's really hard to compare the two directly, because it all comes down to the upside & risk versus safety & floor equation. "If I had to choose, I guess I'd go with X." We all want to dream on the lofty upside Lewis still possesses: the potential for an electric power/speed combo from shortstop or center field, combined with character and charisma on the Jeter Scale. But no one can ignore the realities of a career that's been sabotaged by injuries, the latest of which undeniably clouds his future outlook. How do you properly account for this in projecting him as a major-league player? And how do you compare him to someone like Lee, who probably has a lower overall ceiling but also has one of the highest floors you could ask for in a prospect? Lee looked so polished and adept during his pro debut after signing last year that he found his way to Wichita for the Double-A playoffs and was up to the task. Lee makes it look really easy, and that's the highest compliment you can pay a 21-year-old barely out of college and facing experienced pro competition. Ultimately, we went with Lee as our choice for as the top Twins prospect of 2023, because the feedback we received seemed to tilt ever-so-slightly in that direction and because the majority of publications we chart our rankings against – MLB.com, Baseball Prospectus, The Athletic (both Keith Law and Aaron Gleeman) – have Lee in front of Lewis. But if there's a strong consensus to be found around these two it's this: the Twins are very lucky to have them both. Restocking the Low Minors with Upside Lee and Lewis both contribute to a robust top end of the pipeline, joining the likes of Julien, Woods Richardson, Varland, Martin, and Wallner as quality prospects who could essentially be ready to make an MLB impact at any time. But a number of breakthroughs from recent draft classes and recent high-profile international signings have populated the lower levels with promising young talent. This was missing last year, when essentially all 10 of our top prospects were in the high minors and approaching MLB-readiness, save for Chase Petty who got traded shortly after we published. The emergences of teenaged players like Emmanuel Rodriguez, Raya, and Mercedes – bolstered by the acquisition of Salas in the Luis Arraez trade – have done wonders for the lower levels of this system, and the franchise's long-term talent landscape. Still Lacking Catcher Talent The lack of standout catching prospects in Minnesota's system is something I noted last year, even before Mitch Garver and Ben Rortvedt were traded away. It's now even more conspicuous. The Twins have sought to backfill at the MLB level with veterans like Gary Sánchez and now Christian Vázquez, but the future of this position continues to hinge on Ryan Jeffers, who has proven little at age 25. Not only were there zero catching prospects in our top 20, but if you zoom out to the top 30, none are found in the 21-through-30 range either. The highest I've seen a catcher ranked by anyone is Noah Cardenas, who was 25th on Gleeman's top 40 list, but Cardenas was profiled there as a "future backup with some starter upside." Another tough year for Jeffers, with Vázquez under control through 2025 but turning 33 in August, would leave the organization's outlook pretty flimsy behind the plate unless new names emerge. Rebound Scenarios Present X-factors Aside from some of the big risers, the most stark movements from last year's rankings were the dramatic downfalls of Martin (#1 last year, #10 this year) and Balazovic (#4 last year, #16 this year). Those are tough blows for the system and help explain why it's generally viewed as middling compared to the league. (Law ranked them 19th out of 30 organizations at The Athletic earlier this month.) The flip side is this: it's only one season, and these players are not far removed from being viewed as viable (and imminent) difference-makers with convincing track records. Martin and Balazovic are legit talents, and both will be 24 this year with ample experience in the high minors. A turnaround for either could quickly thrust them into the big-league picture. Who's Your Pick to Click in 2023? I asked this at the conclusion of last year's recap article, so I'll send it your way again. Who is your pick to click and make a huge jump in the rankings in 2023? Last year I the name I submitted was Marco Raya, and he went from Honorable Mentions to #4 on our list, so that went well. This year I will go with Keoni Cavaco, who was merely an Honorable Mention this year having fallen off the radar in three unproductive seasons since being drafted 13th overall in 2019. Cavaco wasn't good last year, but he did seem to take a step forward and he remains an athletic and toolsy infielder. I like him to escape the pitcher-friendly Florida State League and put together a strong age-21 season that vaults him back into the top 20. How about you? Past Rankings Twins Daily 2022 Top Prospects Twins Daily 2021 Top Prospects Twins Daily 2020 Top Prospects Twins Daily 2019 Top Prospects Twins Daily 2018 Top Prospects Twins Daily 2017 Top Prospects Twins Daily 2016 Top Prospects Twins Daily 2015 Top Prospects Twins Daily Links: Misael Urbina, OF, Jose Rodriguez, OF, Tanner Schobel, 2B, Ronny Henriquez, RHP, Jordan Balazovic, RHP, Matt Canterino, RHP, Noah Miller, SS, David Festa, RHP, Yasser Mercedes, OF, Matt Wallner, OF, Austin Martin, SS, Louie Varland, RHP. Jose Salas, INF, Connor Prielipp, LHP, Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP, Edouard Julien, 2B, Marco Raya, RHP, Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF, Royce Lewis, SS, Brooks Lee, SS. Baseball-Reference Links: Misael Urbina, OF, Jose Rodriguez, OF, Tanner Schobel, 2B, Ronny Henriquez, RHP, Jordan Balazovic, RHP, Matt Canterino, RHP, Noah Miller, SS, David Festa, RHP, Yasser Mercedes, OF, Matt Wallner, OF, Austin Martin, SS, Louie Varland, RHP. Jose Salas, INF, Connor Prielipp, LHP, Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP, Edouard Julien, 2B, Marco Raya, RHP, Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF, Royce Lewis, SS, Brooks Lee, SS. View full article

Injuries are unfortunately the number one storyline for the 2023 Twins coming off a promising campaign that was sabotaged by health woes. Now that spring training is underway and players are reporting, to camp here's where things stand with key players on the roster whose uncertainties weigh most heavily on the team's outlook this season. Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports I'll be honest, it sucks to write articles like these. When analyzing the impact players are likely to have, I much prefer to talk about guys with something to prove performance-wise, because it feels more actionable and controllable. Alas, it's impossible to talk about this year's team without addressing all of the cascading injury concerns that carry over from a 2022 campaign besieged by heath issues. One of the reasons we've all been so adamantly looking forward to the start of spring training is because we actually get some insight into these players' statuses, as opposed to endless speculating and hoping. Granted, the insights we're gaining at this very early stage of camp, with players still arriving and settling in, are very limited in their significance. But they're something. And for what it's worth, there's been a considerable amount of reporting and updates around these topics because – like we said – everyone understands the magnitude of importance. Here's what we we've learned so far about several pivotal players with injury concerns. Alex Kirilloff Situation: Kirilloff's rookie season in 2021 was cut short by a wrist injury that required surgery, and his 2022 season was again cut short by issues in the same wrist, requiring a more invasive and serious surgery. We start with Kirilloff because he is, in my opinion, the single most impactful health question mark for the Twins this year. The variance of outcomes here is wild: Either the second surgery doesn't take and Kirilloff is forever doomed to be a mere figment of his true potential, or he finally gains comfort at the plate and blossoms into the MVP-caliber hitter we've all envisioned. We're not going to be able to draw any kind of substantive conclusions until Kirilloff actually starts getting some game action and taking competitive swings – even then, we might not know a ton, since he seemed to feel OK around this time last year – but for now, the news is positive. Rocco Baldelli told reporters there was "no setback, no concern" attached to the 25-year-old at this point and he's "probably in as good of a spot as they've seen him coming into camp." Even if things are going smoothly, I would expect the Twins to take things very slowly with Kirilloff, holding him out of exhibition contests until there's full confidence he's in a good place. It wouldn't shock me if he was held back from the MLB roster at the start of the season, even without setbacks, to be totally honest. The club seems committed to a very cautious approach in these situations, as we'll see. Trevor Larnach Situation: Larnach's second season in the majors showed the similar promise he showed in his first season, but also ended in injury like his first season. A core muscle strain suffered in late-June required surgery, recovery was slower than anticipated, and then a rehab assignment led to a cascading core injury that ended his season. Larnach is also looking to establish himself, and also penciled into a big role for the Twins this year. He spent the offseason rehabbing a core injury with input from several doctors and trainers, and reports that he is at 100%, and hasn't even needed to see the trainer this year so far. In addition, the Twins also report him entering camp without any limitations. Tyler Mahle Situation: Mahle was plagued by ambiguous shoulder issues throughout the 2022 campaign – described at various junctures as soreness, weakness, and fatigue – and they shut him down shortly after he was acquired by Minnesota at the deadline. The unexplained nature of Mahle's 2022 shoulder malady is what makes it so hard to feel confident in a clean rebound. Each time the righty took the mound with diminished velocity and results, he expressed minimal concern. And yet, he threw only two innings after exiting his third Twins start early on August 17th, ending the season on IL. So far this spring, the vibe around Mahle is very similar: no problems, all systems go. Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports that the 28-year-old felt good enough at season's end to put in work at Driveline, an esteemed performance training center for pitchers. Much like with Kirilloff, the proof will very much be in the pudding for Mahle. Can he get out on the mound and throw in the mid-90s? Can he sustain that over increasingly long starts this spring? We'll see. But for now, all signs are positive, and customarily chill. Kenta Maeda Situation: Maeda missed the entire 2022 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in August of 2021, and is now coming back from all the missed time at age 35, with a baseline of only 175 total innings thrown since 2019. Maeda's inability to make it back onto the mound late last season was largely treated as a formality – the team faded from contention, why bother – but his early comments in camp suggest that he still wasn't feeling ready, one year removed from the surgery. The 2020 Cy Young runner-up reportedly threw 40 pitches in the bullpen on Thursday, and indicated that he already felt much better compared to where he was last September. Topping out at 89 MPH is not a bad sign for Maeda, especially this early in the process. He's less reliant on velocity than Mahle, and in this case the real questions are around stamina and command. We'll have to see how the spring progresses to get a good read on those factors. Royce Lewis Situation: Lewis missed the entire 2021 season after suffering an offseason ACL tear, then made a brief but electric return to the field last year before re-tearing the same ACL in an outfield wall collision. It was a beautiful sight. Eight months removed from undergoing his second reconstructive right knee surgery (with a twist), reporters caught video of Lewis opening up with a relatively high-intensity sprint on the grassy side fields of Lee County Sports Complex. Lewis still has a long way to go before he's in game shape, and his spring training activity will likely be limited to these kinds of on-the-side rehab drills, but the fact that's running comfortably at this stage is very encouraging. The estimated timeline for Lewis to return to the majors is "late June or July," but we'll see if a productive spring revises it on the shorter side. Chris Paddack Situation: He looked good in a handful of starts after being acquired from San Diego just before the 2022 season, but tore his UCL and underwent Tommy John surgery for the second time in mid-May. Paddack raised some eyebrows when he told reporters late last season his goal was to return to the mound in August of this year, establishing a notably longer rehab window than the 9-12 months now considered customary for TJ. Of course, undergoing the operation for a second time already at age 26 casts recovery in a very different light, and in Paddack's case there seems to a special emphasis on taking things slow and steady. "Because this is his second elbow surgery, Paddack is taking a conservative approach and performing each step in his rehab three months later than normal at the advice of Dr. Keith Meister," wrote Hayes for The Athletic. Indeed, Paddack shared with the beat reporters that with a second surgery, the timetable is generally moved back three months from the first Tommy John surgery. In the article, Paddack's quotes gave the impression that making it back at all this year is a stretch goal more than anything. “We made that clear at the beginning of this whole thing is like, ‘Hey, don’t tell me I’m not pitching,’ because I want to have some drive,” he said. “I want to have something to look forward to and then if September rolls around and we’re not ready to go, then we can address that situation when it comes.” You wonder if the Twins players, coaches, and trainers have basically committed to setting unambitious expectations after a year where every timeline seemed to drag past initial estimates, leading to criticisms being leveled at all parties involved. Wouldn't be refreshing to have a few players actually beat their estimated return timelines for a change? Jorge Alcalá Situation: The hard-throwing righty made two April appearances for the Twins last year before being shut down due to elbow discomfort. The issue was initially deemed minor, but setbacks in recovery led to arthroscopic debridement surgery in August. He's been billed as fully healthy coming into spring training and was seen throwing early bullpens with no apparent inhibitions. I'll be curious to see those in-game velocity readings. However, Falvey put Alcala into the category of "starting camp with limitations" meaning they'll be careful in bringing him along slowly. Randy Dobnak Situation: Dobnak's Cinderella Story was disrupted by multiple pulley ligament tears in his middle right finger, preventing him from throwing effectively or without pain over the past two seasons. Since signing a five-year contract extension ahead of 2021, he's thrown 50 MLB innings with a 7.64 ERA, and is now off the 40-man roster. Once viewed as a heartwarming success story, Dobnak has fallen off the radar due to his relentless struggles with a recurring finger injury that wreaks havoc on his ability to execute the trademark slider/sinker combo. He's no more than an afterthought in the Twins pitching plans at this point, but one that's easy to root for. Phil MIller had a great profile on Dobnak in the Star Tribune, relaying that "his finger, though not as flexible or strong as it once was, has been pain-free all winter." The caveat there looms large, given that Dobnak was a fringy overachieving talent to begin with, but he's proven doubters wrong plenty of times before. "I think we're way over the hump now," Dobnak said. "I've been slinging it fine." Jorge Polanco Situation: Polanco went on the injured list in late August, and – despite repeated indications that his knee issue was not severe and his return was near – he never made it back before the end of the season. Rocco Baldelli was conspicuously reserved when asked to share where things stand with the second baseman. "He'll be on a slightly different schedule," Baldelli said. "We'll slowly work him back into all facets of the game ... I think he's going to end up getting a lot at-bats on the back field. I think we're going to keep it controlled for a little while until we cut him loose in these games." On the other hand, Polanco met with reporters Saturday and said that there is no pain any more in his knee. However, he also admitted that the rehab work this offseason was extensive, that the recovery took more time than he hoped, and that he still needs to be conscious of it both on and off the field to make sure he takes care of it. It's likely that the next big step for him will be getting into a spring training game. That will indicate that they trust it enough for him to be full go for defensively. Byron Buxton Situation: Buxton was once again plagued by multiple injuries in 2022, costing him almost half the season, and the most significant was a persistent knee issue that required surgery after the season. He's the central storyline heading into this season and will be a primary player to follow in coming weeks. Unfortunately, we have the least information so far on Buxton, who arrived in camp on Friday and is just beginning to ramp up this weekend. Falvey address Buxton's condition, saying "There's nothing he's coming in with that's an issue" but also saying it will be a slow ramp up, similar to Polanco. It will be interesting to see how he's feeling and how he's moving around as the action picks up. Additionally, how will he be managed? The Twins walk a fine line between ensuring he's fully game-ready by Opening Day, while also limiting his exposure enough to minimize early wear and injury risk. John Bonnes is in Fort Myers following closely (and I'll be making the trek down there in a week to join him) so stay tuned as we track all of these crucial spring storylines. View full article

You can make a case that Emmanuel Rodriguez was THE single most meteoric player in all of the minors last year. He shined bright and burnt out quickly, succumbing to a knee injury. Now, he's back and ready to light the minors aflame once again. Age: 19 (DOB: 2/28/2003) 2022 Stats: (A): 199 PA, .272/.493/.552, 9 HR, 25 RBI ETA: 2025 2022 Ranking: 16 National Top 100 Rankings BA: 46 | MLB: 88 | ATH: 48 | BP: 42 What's To Like It's hard to properly explain just how special and stunning Emmanuel Rodriguez's performance was last year in the Florida State League. First, I'll try to set the stage a little bit. Rodriguez had just turned 19 before the start of the season, and had played a total of 37 professional games, all in 2021 at the rookie-level Florida Complex League. He had played pretty well there, showing a lot of power (.524 SLG) along with a lot of swing-and-miss (36% K-rate, .214 AVG). He was embarking upon his first full-season campaign in the Florida State League, always known for its pitcher-friendly conditions. (In 2022, FSL hitters posted a .687 OPS overall.) E-Rod was younger than the league's average by two years. He was facing more experienced, more advanced competition. Here's what he did, while playing a very solid center field: In 199 plate appearances, he hit five doubles, three triples, and nine homers with 11 steals, 52 strikeouts, and 57 walks. That last part is worth repeating: 52 K, 57 BB. He cut his problematic K-rate down to an acceptable range while also drawing walks at a truly staggering frequency. Fifty-seven walks (just one "intentional") in 199 plate appearances equates to a 28.6% BB rate. It's a figure so astronomically high it almost defies belief. Juan Soto led the majors at 20.3% last year. The freakish rate of free passes indicates that Rodriguez has quickly developed both an incredibly keen eye, and a reputation among pitchers as a feared slugger to avoid. He lived up to the latter billing when he got something to hit, slugging .552, and rode all those walks to a .493 on-base percentage. The lefty swinger had a .522 OBP against left-handed pitchers. Among players with 100+ PA in the FSL, no one was within 80 points of OPS to the teenaged CF Rodriguez, other than a 24-year-old 1B/DH named Jacob Gonzalez. Rodriguez's breakout season was cut dramatically short by a knee meniscus injury suffered in June, but evaluators have seen enough in the small sample to elevate him into the elite tier of prospects. All four nationals outlets above have the outfielder in their top 100, and three have him in their top 50. Baseball America called him "one of the strongest up-arrow candidates" on their list. "He might be a top-10 prospect in baseball by midseason if what we saw last spring holds up," observed The Athletic's Keith Law. It's not hard to see where the hype is coming from. And while you couldn't exactly say he came out of nowhere -- the Dominican scored a $2.75 million bonus at age 16 as one of the top talents in the 2019 international class -- he's definitely going somewhere. What's Left to Work On There is not a single thing you can quibble with in Rodriguez's brief flash of brilliance last year. Complete all-around dominance. But, that's all it was: a brief flash. Turning 20 later this month, he's got a very sparse track record – just 84 pro games – and a long road ahead to the major leagues. There are many possible paths forward for the high-upside, high-variance talent. The direction he'll try to steer clear of goes something like this: As he moves up and faces better pitchers (who can better command the strike zone), Rodriguez's patience gives way to passiveness and his K-rate climbs, while the walk rate drops precipitously. Meanwhile, he loses a step after the surgery and keeps adding bulk as he ages into his 20s, forcing a move to a corner outfield spot and raising the bar for his offensive impact. Even in this scenario, Rodriguez can still pan out as a pretty valuable player, because his power tool is outstanding and there's nothing wrong with a classic slugging right fielder who can run and throw. But if Rodriguez can come back healthy at High-A and keep remotely intact the robust skill set we saw on display over two spectacular months in Fort Myers ... he'll likely be viewed among the top prospects in all of baseball by this time next year, following the trajectory of a future MLB superstar. What's Next Prospect rankings tend to be all over the place, but there's a stark level of consensus surrounding Rodriguez and his current estimation from the evaluation community. While there was tremendous dissent regarding the top two spots on the list this year (as we'll soon explore), there was none about who should rank #3: all 10 people who voted on Twins Daily's list had Rodriguez here. Even as you zoom out to the national 100 prospect rankings, the level of consensus is pretty stunning for a player who was on none of these lists a year ago. Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus and The Athletic all have E-Rod ranked between 42nd and 48th overall. We're all seeing the same thing: a highly touted international talent who showed everything you could possibly want to see during an all-too-brief breakthrough in 2022. Now he needs to rebound from the injury, and put together a full season of work. From there, the sky is the limit. He might not necessarily be the best prospect in the Twins system, but Rodriguez is almost certainly the most exciting, with a ceiling that rivals any promising young player who's ever graced these rankings. Feel free to discuss E-Rod as a prospect and ask as many questions as you like in the COMMENTS below. Previous Installments Honorable Mention Prospects 21-30 Prospects 16-20 Prospects 11-15 Prospect #10: Austin Martin, SS Prospect #9: Louie Varland, RHP Prospect #8: Jose Salas, INF Prospect #7: Connor Prielipp, LHP Prospect #6: Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP Prospect #5: Edouard Julien, 2B Prospect #4: Marco Raya, RHP Prospect #3: Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF Prospect #2: Coming tomorrow! View full article

Relief pitchers have a quantitatively small job – pitch one or two innings a couple times per week – but they have an outsized impact on a team's fortunes, as we've seen. Is the front office playing with fire in its passive approach to the bullpen this offseason? Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports The impact of the bullpen on a team's fate can often be overstated by fans, which is understandable. Not to get into specifics, but ... a certain reliever melting down several times in close games against a division rival lingers in memory more starkly than, say, the offense that couldn't build a sufficient lead, or the starter who couldn't go deep enough to prevent that scenario. Many fans will tell you the bullpen was the primary downfall of the 2022 Twins. Is that true? Not really. Their bullpen ranked 20th among MLB teams in fWAR, 16th in ERA, 14th in FIP, compared to a rotation that ranked 21st, 20th, and 18th respectively. The offense, which was supposed to be the engine driving a competitive team, ranked 17th in the majors in runs scored. Notably, the Twins bullpen ranked 29th in fWAR in the first half last year, but improved to FOURTH in the second half, once they'd parted ways with the likes of Tyler Duffey and Joe Smith. They weren't just improved in the latter portion of the campaign, after ironing out an uninspiring opening group – they were elite. All of which is to say they're not working from as lousy of an existing base as many seem to perceive or assume. The front office's decision to bypass any significant offseason RP additions – which now seems all but affirmed, with Michael Fulmer and Andrew Chafin both coming off the market in the past few days – is justifiable on merit. That said, failing to properly build a deep and resilient bullpen can be a costly misstep that fans won't be eager to forgive. Even if it's sometimes exaggerated, there's no question that the bullpen plays a vital role in any team's success, and is often a key differentiator between the good and the great. Is this group up to snuff? The team is placing it's chips on a series of outcomes shaking out mostly the right way, in order to fulfill the vision of a bullpen suited to a World Series contender: The Twins are betting on Jhoan Durán holding up. He's one of the best relievers in baseball, so Durán would serve as a linchpin in almost any bullpen makeup. But the Twins are set to once again lean hard on him for the late innings, because there is so much uncertainty surrounding him (as we'll discuss). The big right-hander was remarkably healthy and durable last year, but he was limited to 16 total innings in 2021 by an elbow strain. He throws about as hard as any pitcher in history, so the injury concerns are self-evident and unignorable. The Twins can't do much about that other than manage and protect his arm to their best ability, but if they wanted some peace of mind, they might've shelled out or traded for a big-name reliever to serve as co-ace of the bullpen. The Rafael Montero to their Ryan Pressly, if you will. Alas, it's possible – maybe even probable – that the front office feels it already accomplished this at the deadline last year: The Twins are betting on Jorge López getting back on track. If López and Durán are both pitching at a level approximating their work in the first half last year, they provide Minnesota with one of the most dominant 1-2 punches at the back end of any bullpen. This no doubt played a major role in the front office's strategy during a 2022 deadline that seemed as much oriented toward strengthening the '23 club as boosting their chances for the stretch run. The plan can still work, and the Twins are counting on it. López's results dropped off big-time after the trade last year, but it was only 23 innings and the stuff was still there. If his drop-off didn't coincide directly with switching teams, it probably would've been less noticeable, and we'd have been more inclined to judge his overall body of work – 71 IP, 2.54 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 4 HR allowed – as a tremendously encouraging first go as a full-time reliever. Merely replicating that overall level of performance for the full season would make López a worthy setup man or closer. But if getting comfortable while making adjustments brings him back closer to the level of his All-Star first half, the Twins have two powerhouses lurking at the back of the bullpen. They'll be the envy of almost every team in the league. The Twins are betting on Emilio Pagán proving doubters wrong. The doubters are many, and they have ample evidence to support their stance. Pagán authored from the mound some of this team's lowest moments in 2022. His propensity for hanging meatballs that got launched 450 feet at dire moments was legendary ... and it's a rep that's now been following him around for a while. And yet. The Twins believe in the quality of his stuff and they are not alone. Perhaps they feel it started to shine through in the second half and down the stretch, with help from a new breaking ball swapped in for the cutter. After posting a 5.23 ERA in the first half, Pagán lowered that figure to 3.56 in the second half – including 2.16 ERA in his final 16 ⅔ innings, during which he held opponents to a .170/.279/.288 with only one home run allowed. The overpowering arsenal is undeniable, and in the latter stage of the season – under tutelage from a rearranged coaching staff featuring Pete Maki and Colby Suggs – Pagán finally started to unlock it. Or so the Twins are betting. The Twins are betting on unproven middle relief options coming through. Griffin Jax looked very good last year in his transition to relief, but posted a 6.37 ERA the prior season as a rookie. Caleb Thielbar was phenomenal following a rocky start, but he's 36 and was out of pro baseball a few years ago. Jorge Alcalá undoubtedly has the stuff to dominate righties, but missed nearly all of last season with an elbow injury. Add in the likes of Trevor Megill and Jovani Moran, and you've got a great deal of high-end potential within the middle tier of his bullpen mix – including some very viable setup candidates – but also substantial question marks relating to age, injury, track record, or otherwise. The argument for adding another veteran reliever is that you can mitigate some of this uncertainty with more of a proven commodity. The argument against it is that you might be limiting well-earned opportunities for some of the guys lower on the list. Moran for example posted a 2.21 ERA while averaging 12.0 K/9 and allowing zero homers in 41 innings for the Twins last year, and he's about to turn 26. Does he really deserve to be buried back in Triple-A with another vet of questionable superiority stacked above him on the depth chart? The Twins are betting on manufacturing relief arms over the course of the season. Even if the Twins are mostly right about the pitchers mentioned above, they'll need to rely on an influx of talent throughout the course of the season, because that's always the case. The underlying premise seems to be one guiding this front office philosophically from a bullpen standpoint: we can find them. Maybe that means extracting good performances out of minor-league signings and waiver claims, such as Danny Coulombe and Oliver Ortega. They've been okay at that, on the fringes. But really, it comes down to identifying pitchers from a wide-ranging pool of flawed starters who can elevate into true relief weapons. We saw this last year with Durán and Jax, and I suspect the Twins feel they're only scratching the surface. Keep a close eye on names like Josh Winder, Ronny Henriquez, Jordan Balazovic, Blayne Enlow, and Brent Headrick as candidates to shift to relief and make a major big-league impact. This philosophy that basically boils down to, "Capable relievers are everywhere, but volatile, why pay a premium?" is not exactly unique to the Twins, but it's one they're embracing with all their might. And it might ultimately play a huge role in defining their success this season. Let's hope they're right on that bet, and the others inherent to a status quo offseason for the Minnesota bullpen. View full article

The prized pitching prospect who came over in the José Berríos trade has reached the majors and will now aim to establish himself there. As something more than a mid-rotation starter? That is the question. Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints Age: 22 (DOB: 9/27/2000) 2022 Stats: (AA/AAA): 107.1 IP, 2.77 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 9.6 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 ETA: 2023 2022 Ranking: 8 National Top 100 Rankings BA: NR | MLB: NR | ATH: NR | BP: NR What's To Like The 2021 season was a slog for Simeon Woods Richardson. Pushed aggressively to Double-A at age 20 coming off the lost COVID season, he struggled to find his rhythm, finishing with a 5.91 ERA in 53 1/3 sporadic innings. Spending several weeks abroad with Team USA for the Olympics (where he didn't actually pitch) and getting traded at mid-season for the second time in two years surely didn't help. The young right-hander took it in stride. He committed to a smoother ride in 2022 and made it happen. After giving up six earned runs in eight innings spread across four appearances at Wichita following the trade in '21, Woods Richardson got off to a much better start in his second tour, going four full turns on the mound before allowing his first earned run of the season. He turned the hot opening into a strong run with the Wind Surge before a bout with COVID in June knocked him out of action for six weeks. This time, he wouldn't let the time off derail him. Woods Richardson returned in late July and was lights out. He made five more starts for Wichita, striking out 10 over five innings in the last one before a promotion to Triple-A, where he was consistently excellent through the end of September. By the time Woods Richardson got the call to start at Detroit in one of the last games of the Twins season, he had posted a 2.15 ERA while holding opponents to a .188/.255/.266 line in 54 ⅓ innings over his past dozen outings between Double-A and Triple-A. Not much more you can do to earn the opportunity. He made the most of that opportunity, holding the Tigers to two runs on three hits over five innings. Granted, it was a meaningless game between two eliminated teams eager to close up shop, but still it was a big and impressive moment for Woods Richardson, who was the youngest pitcher to throw in the majors last season. He showed all the polish and poise that got him there. There are some limitations to SWR's game, as we'll discuss, but his youth gives you the ability to dream on further evolution of his talent. He's still only 22 with room for growth yet. (For comparison, he's about two months older than our #7 prospect Connor Prielipp, who was drafted out of the University of Alabama last summer and hasn't yet thrown a professional pitch.) What's Left to Work On Woods Richardson saw a big velocity spike during his senior year of high school in Sugar Land, TX, prompting the Mets to draft him 48th overall and sign him to a $1.85 million bonus. His advanced stuff played well in the low levels of the minors and Woods Richardson moved fast, reaching High-A by the age of 18. But the trouble is, his stuff sort of stagnated over the next few years. SWR's fastball velo hasn't picked up any added oomph and is now solidly below average in the low 90s range. He hasn't developed a true putaway pitch, although the changeup has emerged as star of the show and helped him decimate lefties last year with an extreme reverse platoon split. To his great credit, Woods Richardson got the job done everywhere he went in 2022, averaging more than a strikeout per inning, but he wasn't overpowering hitters based on the raw caliber of his pitches. Part of what helps him succeed is a funky over-the-top delivery with good extension that routinely keeps hitters from jumping on his pitches. (He allowed only six home runs in 107 innings last year, and has a 0.6 HR/9 overall in the minors.) But Woods Richardson's quirky mechanics can also become a source of inconsistency, leading to occasion command issues that never seemed to surface in the low minors. This was an especially big problem during the 2021 campaign, but he was able to tighten things up last year. If the lanky 6-foot-3 hurler can further refine and orchestrate all the moving parts in his delivery and find a way to juice up his fastball, he still has the potential to reach another level as a starting pitcher. If not, the Twins will need to decide if they want to keep pushing toward a future in the lower part of the rotation, or potentially bigger things in the bullpen. What's Next Woods Richardson reached the majors alongside Louie Varland at the end of last year, so these two stand as the most readily available depth in the prospect pool should a need arise. However, Varland is three years older and seems like more of a finished product, so he's firmly ahead in line. The Twins will be inclined to show patience with Woods Richardson, giving him ample time and seasoning in Triple-A before they feel ready to promote him for good. They should hopefully have that luxury with at seven starters lined up ahead of him on the depth chart. Feel free to discuss SWR as a prospect and ask as many questions as you like in the COMMENTS below. Previous Installments Honorable Mention Prospects 21-30 Prospects 16-20 Prospects 11-15 Prospect #10: Austin Martin, SS Prospect #9: Louie Varland, RHP Prospect #8: Jose Salas, INF Prospect #7: Connor Prielipp, LHP Prospect #6: Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP Prospect #5: Coming Monday! View full article

Lots of good discussion here of velocity for pitching prospects and how much weight we give it. (Too much? Maybe.) If you want a super duper optimistic comp, here's one: Shane Bieber. He also was not super highly drafted (albeit 4th round not 15th). He also didn't show up on any global top prospects lists, despite putting up ridiculous numbers in the minors. He was #5 in the Cleveland system, per BP, ahead of his rookie season. Two years later he was in MVP contention. Last year Bieber put up a 2.88 ERA with a fastball that averaged like 91 MPH. Obviously it helps to have the Guardians pitching development juggernaut but, so far so good with the Twins and Varland, whose "coachability" is a standout trait that gets talked about all the time.