Nick Nelson

The Twins parted ways with free agents, cleared space on the 40-man roster, and set the stage for an offseason primed with ample flexibility and a wide range of possibilities. Here's where things stand as we get started. Eight Twins Players Become Free Agents The end of the World Series triggered the official commencement of the offseason, meaning that the following players automatically entered the free agent market: Michael Fulmer, RHP Gary Sánchez, C Sandy León, C Billy Hamilton, OF Aaron Sanchez, RHP Aside from Fulmer, a solid deadline pickup for the bullpen, and Sánchez, who ended up being the team's primary catcher, these are all random midseason veteran pickups who played roles for the team out of sheer desperation. No big losses, although Fulmer will be an interesting target to pursue. Elsewhere, Carlos Correa opted out of his contract as expected. He'll hit free agency once again in search of a monster deal eclipsing $300 million. I wrote about what it will take to re-sign him as part of a three-part "Future of Shortstop" chapter of the Offseason Handbook. Anyone with a Twins Daily account can download that chapter for free. Finally, there were three players whose team options the club elected to decline, all as expected: Miguel Sanó, 1B ($2.75M buyout) Dylan Bundy, RHP ($1M buyout) Chris Archer, RHP ($750K buyout) Bundy and Archer were underwhelming bargain-bin free agent signings for the back of the rotation. Sanó's legacy with the Twins is, of course, much more lengthy and complicated. Probably worthy of a deeper examination in time. But for now, what matters for now is the way it ended: with the Twins paying $2.75 million to be done with him. Twins Pick Up Sonny Gray's Option There was one team option that the Twins were more than happy to pick up: Gray will be back next year at a $12.7 million salary. This was a no-brainer and a big part of the reason Minnesota was willing to give up Chase Petty for the veteran right-hander. Gray currently projects as the standalone #1 starter on the 2023 staff. Improving upon that situation should be a top priority for the front office this winter. Will they make an offseason addition who surpasses the Sonny Gray Threshold? We explored free agents and trade targets who could provide a legitimate top-of-rotation upgrade in the Starting Pitchers chapter of the Offseason Handbook, available to Caretakers. 40-Man Roster Shuffling Clears Room In addition to letting several players loose into free agency, the Twins also cleared up some 40-man roster room through waivers and outrights. Here's a quick rundown to catch you up: LHP Danny Coulombe was outrighted from the 40-man roster and assigned to the Saints. So were LHP Devin Smeltzer and RHP Jhon Romero. C Caleb Hamilton was claimed off waivers by Boston. SS Jermaine Palacios was claimed off waivers by Detroit. OF Jake Cave was claimed off waivers by Baltimore. All of these many removals from the 40-man were offset by a litany of players being removed from the injured list at year's end, so the Twins end up with 37 players currently rostered as illustrated in the grid below. Highlighted in red are eight clear candidates for removal, via non-tender or waiving, so the Twins will have no trouble finding room for new additions. The deadline to make contract tender decisions on arbitration-eligible players falls on November 18th – next Thursday. On that date we'll learn whether we can lock in or remove a few of those red-shaded names above, including Gio Urshela, Kyle Garlick, Emilio Pagan and Cody Stashak. Internal Promotions Impact MLB Coaching Staff As a result of a series of internal personnel shifts announced by the team this past week, a new member has been added to the major-league coaching staff for 2023: Derek Shohon, who served as the hitting coach for Class-AA Wichita last year – overseeing the breakouts of prospects Matt Wallner and Edouard Julien, among others – will join the Twins as an assistant hitting coach alongside incumbents David Popkins and Rudy Hernandez. Some other moves of note: Drew MacPhail, son of former Twins GM Andy MacPhail, takes over as farm director. Alex Hassan, previously in that role, is now vice president of hitting development and procurement. Former run creation coordinator Frankie Padulo transitions into the assistant director of player development role formerly held by MacPhail. Brian Maloney was promoted to director of minor league and high performance operations, and Amanda Daley was promoted to director of player education. Roster and Payroll Projection: v1 Here's an overview of where the projected roster and payroll currently stand, under the assumption that Urshela and Garlick are tendered, and Pagan is not. (Far from guaranteed on any count.) The biggest existential priorities, as you can see, are finding a starting shortstop (and his backup), filling the catcher vacancy, and adding impact arms. They've got nearly $50 million to spend merely to get back to the 2022 payroll level, so needless to say there's a world of possibilities ahead. As a reminder, you can explore options at these key positions of need by downloading available chapters of the Offseason Handbook, and you can use our roster-building tool to forge your own Twins blueprint. View full article

Right. I think the way this model is supposed to look is how Tampa Bay did it. Here are the inning totals for their starters: McClanahan: 166 IP Kluber: 164 IP Rasmussen: 146 IP Springs: 135 IP No one was a "workhorse" and they were similarly averse to 3rd trips through the order but these guys at least lived up to the modified billing for a full starter workload.

Right. There were so many nights where the Twins were rattling through 1-IP relievers until they got to the guy having an "off day" and things blew up. You're asking for trouble with this approach unless you have an Astros or Rays bullpen.

With huge gaps to fill on a staff facing the losses of José Berríos and Kenta Maeda, Minnesota's front office took an unconventional approach to pitching this year. Did it work? I think we can safely say: not really! But a dissection of what went wrong reveals some worthwhile nuggets to take forward. Image courtesy of Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports Having lost their top two starters to a deadline sell-off trade and Tommy John surgery, the Twins headed into last offseason with a barren rotation outlook. It was unclear exactly how Derek Falvey and Thad Levine would realistically be able to offset these big losses. Yes, they had money to spend. But the next premier frontline starting pitcher to choose Minnesota in free agency would be the first. Some creativity was gonna be needed to field a contending staff, and Levine hinted as much early on. The general manager's quotes led me to write a column around this time last year: Are the Twins About to Build a Radically Unconventional Pitching Staff? “I think with the challenge comes opportunity,” Levine had said. “We’re going to be as creative as we can be in terms of not being necessarily hemmed into the notion of it has to look exactly the way it has always looked. We may end up looking at this from the lens of how many multi-inning guys can we add to a staff and how far does that take us?” The Twins followed through on their foreshadowing ... to an extent. With their only stable veteran workhorses – José Berríos, Kenta Maeda, and Michael Pineda – out of the picture for 2022, the team didn't acquire proven inning-eaters to replace them. Instead, their pickups were Sonny Gray, Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer and Chris Paddack, none of whom had thrown even 140 innings the prior season. Meanwhile, the only rotation incumbents were Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, who had thrown a collective 120 innings in the big leagues. The front office assembled a staff full of pretty good pitchers who were – almost uniformly – unequipped to provide any length, and so we saw Levine's vision more or less come to life: vast numbers of different arms rotating in and out to cobble together nine-inning games. The Twins used a franchise-record 38 different pitchers. Their starters averaged 4.8 innings, second-fewest in the American League. They used six or more different pitchers in a game 31 times. Radically unconventional indeed. And, had this approach been successful, you wouldn't hear me complaining. But clearly it was not. The Twins ranked 19th in ERA, 19th in FIP, 20th in fWAR. Even for a club that was built around the strength of its lineup, that's not nearly good enough. The plan, at its core, was not a terrible one: maximize the stuff of your pitchers in shorter stints, shield them from multiple trips through the order, and possibly reduce injuries from overuse. Alas, none of those supposed benefits came to fruition. So what went wrong, and what can we learn? Was the entire philosophy bunk, or was the execution botched? I would argue, probably more of the latter. There might be some merit to the concept, provided the Twins heed these lessons learned: The starters weren't good enough, or healthy enough, even in shortened starts. I don't dislike the idea of signing a cheap pitcher – who doesn't have the repertoire or durability to go deep – for the back of your rotation and unleashing him in highly effective 4-5 inning bursts. The problem is that this group lacked the capacity to be highly effective even with this usage. Bundy held his own the first time through the lineup, then got mashed the second time through (.291/.327/.534), often making the third time a moot point. Archer posted an 85 ERA+ despite almost never pitching past the fourth. He placed a heavy weight on the bullpen every fifth day, and rarely left them in a good spot. Meanwhile, the cautious management wasn't enough to prevent Ober, who only once threw even 90 pitches in a start, from being derailed by a season-ruining groin injury. It wasn't enough to prevent Gray, who grumbled about Rocco Baldelli's early hooks, from multiple significant hamstring injuries. If the Twins want an approach like this to pay dividends, they need to find pitchers who are actually capable of excelling in shorter starts (a la Andrew Heaney) and they need to better help their players physically adapt to the altered routines. You've got to have at least one starter who can be the workhorse. Even with all of the above being addressed, I still think you've got to have at least one starting pitcher in your rotation who you can count on to give you some length. This strategy built around five-and-flies, piggybacking and the like becomes a lot more palatable when there is a fixture like Berríos routinely firing 6-7 innings each time through the rotation. That likely contributed to the decision to acquire Tyler Mahle at the deadline. He threw 180 innings in 2021 (would've led the Twins by 60), and had completed six or more frames in eight of nine starts for the Reds leading up the trade. Of course, Mahle proved to be the opposite of a remedy for Minnesota, and now only adds to the uncertainty of a 2023 rotation in desperate need of stable and dependable durability. Their bullpen wasn't built adequately to handle the burden. This is what really gets me. Levine talked about "looking at this from the lens of how many multi-inning guys can we add to a staff," and then their only bullpen addition of the offseason was Joe Smith, who could barely be counted on for one inning. The Twins rarely carried anything resembling a long man on the staff, and would typically just march out endless one-inning relievers after short starts. This led to them frequently burning through all of their high-leverage arms on one night and burning out the back end of their bullpen for the next. To make a system like this work, you've got to have an array of arms capable of getting more than three outs on a regular basis. The routine of four-inning starts followed by 5-6 relievers is not a workable formula as we saw. Losing your pitching coach mid-season doesn't help. This one can't so much be blamed on the front office and their planning. It's difficult to anticipate such a disruptive event in the heart of your season, and Wes Johnson's abrupt departure made matters tougher as the Twins tried to hold together their experimental pitching staff through the second half. Pete Maki undoubtedly played a significant role in architecting this year's plan, and now, as the apparent choice going forward at pitching coach, he'll be able to more directly pull the strings and execute to his preferences. So, to summarize... The model of building a pitching staff with reduced emphasis on traditional 6-7 inning starters isn't bad in theory. Indeed, there's plenty of evidence that it is the inexorable direction of baseball at large. But if the Twins want to lean into this movement as they did in 2022, they need to get better at. That means: Filling the rotation with starters who can at least stay healthy and excel in 4-5 inning starts. Finding at least one workhorse type starter who can reliably give you 6+ innings each turn. Equipping the bullpen with enough firepower and multi-inning relievers to shoulder the load. Having one central mastermind oversee the operation (and if it's not working, find someone new). As you're looking through the options available in our bullpen chapter of the Offseason Handbook, these are lessons worth keeping in mind. View full article

Since the 2019 season, the bullpen has been one pervasive factor holding back the Minnesota Twins in their quest for contention. Ironically, during the same span, the two major-league leaders among relief pitchers in fWAR are former Twins Liam Hendriks and Ryan Pressly, the latter of whom just got done starring in the World Series (again). Image courtesy of Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports Liam Hendriks and Ryan Pressly spent one season pitching together on the Twins staff. It was 2013, when Pressly had just joined the club as a Rule 5 pick, and Hendriks was playing out the string with the organization that first signed him. At the time there was no indication we were looking at two of the future biggest relief stars in baseball. Hendriks posted a 6.85 ERA in 47 ⅓ innings and was waived in December, owner of a 5.31 FIP and 5.8 K/9 rate through 156 big-league frames. Pressly was moderately effective as a rookie long reliever, tossing 76 ⅔ innings at a 3.87 ERA but with an underwhelming 49-to-27 K/BB ratio. He might not have hung around the majors all season if the team were not compelled to do so by his Rule 5 status. I don't really blame the Twins for moving on from Hendriks, though it would've been nice to see him at least audition in a short-burst relief role first. When they waived him, he was claimed by the Cubs, who themselves waived him 10 days later. The Orioles, who claimed him from Chicago, followed suit by waiving Hendriks in February. Hendriks landed with the Blue Jays, who traded him to Kansas City in July. The Royals then traded him back to Toronto in October. Three weeks later, the Jays turned around and traded him to Oakland. You still keeping track? Me neither. Needless to say, it took a lot of scenery changes for Hendriks, and a lot of teams had him in their grasp (however briefly) before he finally settled in for the A's and began reaching his full form as the best reliever in baseball. Pressly, on the other hand, was already reaching his full form when the Twins decided to trade him to Houston at the 2018 deadline. This was a very different situation and one much more worthy of dissection. There seems to be a misperception that Pressly was a poor performer in Minnesota who instantly flipped a switch to become elite with the Astros, but that's not really the truth. Pressly's development with the Twins was a slow and gradual process. With each passing season, his velocity would nudge upward a bit, along with his strikeout rate. Under two different managers and three different pitching coaches, Minnesota stuck with Pressly through some fairly uninspiring seasons, all in the hope he'd eventually reach the dominant peak they long envisioned. In 2018, he did it. All that time and work finally paid off. By now Pressly was averaging 96 MPH with his fastball and decimating opposing hitters. In 47 ⅔ innings with the Twins he had a 13.0 K.9 rate and a 17.9% swinging strike rate. Those numbers ranked ninth and fifth in all of baseball, respectively. He had a 2.95 FIP at the time they traded him. His spin rates were off the charts. It's easy to see why the Astros came calling. Unlike the rest of their deadline sell-offs in 2018 – including the Eduardo Escobar trade that brought in Jhoan Durán – the Twins were not motivated to move Pressly, who still had another year of team control remaining. But they liked Houston's offer of Jorge Alcalá and Gilberto Celestino enough to pull the trigger. A reasonable decision at the time, especially considering the general volatility of relief pitchers. But with the benefit of hindsight, we can say that this trade has been an abject disaster for the Twins thus far. Alcalá and Celestino, to their credit, have both reached the majors, and the book is far from written on them. But neither has proven to be a major impact player yet, while Pressly has gone on to become one of the most impactful relievers in the league – and one the Twins could've desperately used over these past four years. Late-inning relief has been perpetual thorn in the organization's side. Thrust back into championship contention sooner than expected in 2019, the Twins found themselves short-handed in the bullpen, and traded for Sergio Romo and Sam Dyson at the deadline. Minnesota still got swept out of the postseason, with relievers taking the brunt of the negative WPA. In 2020, the bullpen was actually a big asset through the 60-game regular season, but again it was the relief corps (namely Romo) lapsing severely in the playoffs. I'll never waver that Minnesota's offense bears most responsibility for that miserable 0-5 stretch in October of 2019-20 (and the team's long-running playoff woes at large) but the fact remains: they ran out of guns in crunch time. Meanwhile Pressly was emerging as an All-Star annihilator for the Astros – not to mention a big-time postseason performer. The 2021 and 2022 Twins seasons were tanked largely by dreadful bullpens, with the main culprits being veteran pitchers targeted as late-inning replacements to fill Pressly's void. By now it seemed no matter which route the front office went in seeking bullpen help – signing a steady established name (Alex Colomé), trading for a buy-low candidate (Emilio Pagán), trading for a buy-high candidate (Jorge López), sticking with their staples (Tyler Duffey), moving on from their staples (Taylor Rogers) – they could do no right. Their lack of late-inning dependability became a major hindrance, a chronic momentum-killer and source of angst for fans. Through it all, Pressly just kept on dominating for the Astros, like almost no other reliever in baseball. With his help, Houston went to the World Series three times in four years, and just won it. Now, there are a number of counterarguments people could make (and have made) to refute the idea that Minnesota blundered with this move. To me, they all ring a bit hollow: They didn't have the coaching staff to unlock Pressly at the time. It's not exactly a big secret that manager Paul Molitor and bullpen coach Eddie Guardado were widely viewed as ineffective at translating and embedding analytics principles for players. I would respond that while these coaches might have been inherited by the current regime, baseball ops still controls who is on the staff. And, four months after Pressly was traded, Falvey would install his own new group led by the analytically-inclined Rocco Baldelli and Wes Johnson. If the Twins recognized what they had in Pressly, they could've held him and brought in the right people to bring it out. He wouldn't have thrived here like he did in Houston. One might argue that, even with new coaches, Pressly would've never reached the heights he did in Houston, where his ERA dropped from 3.40 in the first half with the Twins to 0.77 post-trade. Astros pitching coach Brent Strom is regarded as one of the best in the biz. Fair point. But in reality, Pressly only needed to stay the course to be a massive asset in the Twins bullpen. As mentioned, he was statistically one of the most dominant relievers in the league BEFORE they dealt him. They weren't going to sign him to the contract extension Houston did. The reason Pressly is still on the Astros is because they quickly signed him to a two-year extension, buying out his first two years of free agency with a two-year, $17.5 million option. (They recently re-upped with another two-year deal.) This Twins front office hasn't shown any willingness to extend relievers, or really even to shell out multi-year contracts to them. But ... there's no reason they COULDN'T have extended Pressly, other than their own volition. I think we're past the point of deferring to this front office's stubborn adherence to a status quo that hasn't gotten the job done. Ultimately, any counterargument that tries to absolve the Twins of blame in ends up directing it back to them in some different way. The bottom line is that they took a measured risk in trading Pressly and, like many they've taken, this one blew up in their faces. I'm not saying it's some unforgivable offense. One thing I like about this front office is their threshold for risk in the name of upside. It's possible we'll rue this particular decision less one day, because Alcalá and Celestino have years of control remaining and potential left to tap. Also, while the overall tone of this column may be critical, it should be emphasized that the Twins deserve credit for identifying and acquiring these talents to begin with: They found Hendriks as an unknown teenager in the barely-scouted continent of Australia. They developed him into a legitimate prospect, who appeared in back-to-back Futures Games, and a big-leaguer. The Twins set Hendriks on the path to stardom. They identified Pressly as a seemingly unremarkable arm in the Red Sox system, one who'd barely pitched above Single-A at age 24. They developed him from solid MLB long reliever to effective middle reliever to outstanding setup man before flipping him to Houston where Pressly completed his evolution. The Twins have shown an eye for the right relief talent, but they've usually been unable to properly actualize it while in Minnesota. In order to escape their cycle of bullpen torment, they need to break the spell. Twins Daily Caretakers can now download the new chapter of the Offseason Handbook, "Scouring Free Agency for Relief Help," and learn about the options available to them as they look to break the spell. If you haven't yet, sign up as a Caretaker to access all of the Handbook content as it drops! View full article

When the Twins have looked outside for late-inning relief help, it hasn't generally gone so well. (See: Emilio Pagán, Alex Colomé, Addison Reed.) This year's free agent market presents some opportunities to reconnect with a few former Twins who represent some of the brightest moments for bullpens of years past. Image courtesy of Thomas Shea and David Berding-USA TODAY Sports In our latest chapter of the Offseason Handbook, "Scouring Free Agency for Late-Inning Relief Help," we zoomed in on a dozen different options from this year's class who could help relieve Jhoan Durán's burden in crunch time. Among them are three former Twins relievers who will be available on the open market, and could be strong fits at the right price. Caretakers can read about all 12 targets in the full chapter – now available along with our previously released Handbook installments – but here are the blurbs on three familiar names: Michael Fulmer, RHP Age: 29 (DOB: 3/15/93) Former Team: Twins Career fWAR: 10.1 An appealing target for several reasons, beginning with the fact that he pitched (well) for the Twins in the second half and has some familiarity here. Fulmer was the most low-profile of Minnesota's three deadline pitcher acquisitions, but the only one that panned out. While not at the dominance level of the above pitchers, he's been consistently good since transitioning from starter to reliever, and as a 29-year-old coming off his first full-time relief campaign, he still might have room for growth. I'd consider him a worthy top bullpen pickup. Estimated Contract: 2 years, $14 million Taylor Rogers, LHP Age: 31 (DOB: 12/17/90) Former Team: Brewers Career fWAR: 8.1 Now here's an interesting case. It's essentially an opportunity to reverse the trade from last spring, swapping Rogers back in for Emilio Pagán. That might not sound terribly enticing given that Rogers actually had a worse ERA (4.76) than Pagán (4.43) in 2022, but Rogers' secondary numbers painted a much brighter picture: 11.8 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 3.32 FIP. Granted, Twins fans have heard that story before, but the lefty's finger seems fine and his down year could create the opportunity to bring him back at a bargain. Estimated Contract: 2 years, $12 million Trevor May, RHP Age: 33 (DOB: 9/23/89) Former Team: Mets Career fWAR: 5.5 May's two-year, $15 million deal with the Mets yielded 87.2 IP, a 4.00 ERA, and 14 home runs allowed. Not too impressive. It also yielded a 3.78 FIP and 11.6 K/9 rate as he continued to pump gas in the upper 90s. Injuries ravaged his 2022 campaign – a familiar story, as Twins fans know – so he might be had at a bargain. May's absence in Minnesota's bullpen the past two years has been noticeable; they miss his fire, his energy, his premium stuff. If he's open to returning, the hard-throwing righty would offer some nice López insurance. Estimated Contract: 1 year, $5 million Which of these reunions appeals most to you? Share your thoughts, and make sure to grab the full Handbook chapter and research all of the best available options. From there, you can build your own offseason blueprint. View full article

A potential leak from MLB apparel partner New Era might have accidentally given fans a glimpse of the Twins rebrand that has been teased. Image courtesy of Uni-Watch.com The above image comes courtesy of the website Uni Watch, which is built around a singular obsession with sports uniforms. They note that the subtle logo redesign appeared in the Twins cap from a new "southwestern"-themed line of team hats from New Era. Twenty-nine results come up when you search the new theme, with Minnesota conspicuously excluded. However, it seems the Twins iteration was briefly featured, and "an enterprising fan got a screen shot of it before the link was disabled." Why was the Twins cap removed? The logical conclusion, and one reached by Uni Watch, is that it revealed an embargoed brand update, which can be pretty clearly distinguished in the side-by-side comparison. It's hardly a drastic overhaul, but the classic "TC" logo has been streamlined and sharpened up, with a look that hints at the more "modernized" feel that's been promised. I will emphasize that, as author Paul Lukas noted at Uni Watch, "We can’t know with 100% certainty that this logo tweak will be part of the Twins’ new uniform package, but it seems likely." In addition to having no official verification, even if legit this is likely one small element in what's being billed as a more substantial and expansive brand update. What are your inital thoughts on these tweaks to the traditonal "TC" lettering? View full article

With this week's focus on the catcher position, there's plenty of talk about who the Twins might pursue to share time with (or supplant?) Ryan Jeffers in 2023 and beyond. I find myself pondering a more big-picture question, which itself – in a way – has implications on the team's decision making: Have we seen the last catcher win a batting title? Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports This past season, Luis Arraez became the first Minnesota Twin to claim a batting title since Joe Mauer last did it in 2009. That was, of course, an MVP season for Mauer, and it marked his third time in four years leading the American League in batting average. As we all know, Mauer was something of a unicorn: the third backstop ever to become a batting champ, and the first to do it in the AL. Needless to say, it has been a historical rarity, but the shifting tides of the game make me wonder if we'll ever see it happen again. In 2009, Mauer was one of nine catchers to qualify for the batting title. Same thing in 2008, and 2006, when he won his other two crowns. Compare that to five catchers who qualified this year, and just two (!) in 2021. Around the major leagues, clubs have progressively altered the way they manage catchers, opting in most cases to spread out the workload rather than placing the full burden on one player – a movement the Twins have fully embraced. Sure, there are still some throwbacks out there like Sean Murphy and J.T. Realmuto, but they're few and far between, and none of them are hitting like prime Joe Mauer. The current landscape really puts into perspective how incredible Mauer was. We're less than a decade removed from a stretch where he bore the rigors of catching over 10 years (albeit with some injury issues mixed in) and slashed .323/.405/.469. He made enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title in seven of those campaigns. It's a stretch of performance that, in my opinion, should (and will) get him into the Hall of Fame. But enough reminiscing about the past. Let's turn the clock forward to present day. The Twins now find themselves with a need at catcher, and it's one they could seek to address in a profound way. The big name on this year's offseason class, as covered in our extensive Offseason Handbook chapter on the subject, is Willson Contreras. One of the better free agent catchers to hit free agency in some time, Contreras received his third All-Star nod in 2022 while slashing .243/.349/.466 for the Cubs. His .815 OPS would've ranked third among all Twins, behind only Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton. Contreras is a highly-regarded star player and easily the pinnacle of the catching market. He's in his prime and coming off a career year. It'll take a very big contract to land him – I guessed 5/100 as a starting point in the Handbook – and that raises some challenging questions about the logic of spending so much on what is, essentially, a part-time player. He's a perfect example of the diminishing durability benchmark for the modern catcher. Despite avoiding major injuries, and producing at an elite rate when on the field, Contreras has qualified for a batting title only once (sans-2020) since debuting back in 2016. That was aback in 2018, when he was 26 and made 544 plate appearances over 138 games (a typical, if not light, workload for a Mauer campaign). Twenty million dollars is a lot of money in annual salary commitment for a team like the Twins. They've got to be smart in how they use it. Allocating such a big share to a player who has played 120 games per year on average, and would probably be in line for a timeshare of sorts here, if the Twins adhere to their existing philosophy ... it could be tough to stomach. And that's beyond all the other built-in risk with a player like Contreras who might have to move off catcher in the coming years anyway. As the mechanisms of Major League Baseball shift, we'll start seeing financial implications play out. With the expectation for a starting pitcher's workload being more in the 150-170 range as compared to the 180-210 range of previous eras, teams will start scaling back the relative amount they're willing to invest in starters (if they haven't already). We'll very likely see a similar effect in the catching market, and Contreras will be a fascinating example to follow. The Twins are among the few franchises to hand out a true mega-deal to a catcher, having signed Mauer for $184 million in 2010. They did so with the belief that he'd continue, at least for a while, to catch 900-1,000 innings per season. It's hard to realistically expect the same from someone like Contreras, who himself will be in the market for a mega-deal. Circling back to the original question posed in this article, the heart of the matter is not so much asking whether a catcher will win a batting title ... but whether it makes sense to invest heavy resources into players who might never qualify for one. View full article

I know it's Halloween but there's no need to frighten the children

In terms of existential "needs" on the Twins roster, catcher ranks behind only shortstop on the offseason priority list. In determining the plan going forward, Minnesota's decision makers need to ask themselves a series of questions, with the answers pointing to various different sets of options. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports There are several different ways to view the catcher position, and they largely hinge on your opinion of Ryan Jeffers. Has he shown enough to remain entrenched as the 1A fixture behind the plate, or have his injuries and middling performance created the need to find a new catching cornerstone? In our new chapter of the Offseason Handbook, "Framing the Catcher Market," we explore these two scenarios and everything in between, unpacking four questions and where they lead: Do you view Ryan Jeffers as your catcher of the future, and a viable primary starter in 2023? If the Twins want to more or less run back the same plan from 2022, while hoping Jeffers can stay healthier and take a step forward, there are a number of low-cost targets available in free agency, including the option to literally run it back with Gary Sánchez or Sandy León. Do you want to sign the top free agent catcher on the market and make him your new cornerstone behind the plate? The top name in this year's catching market, without question, is Willson Contreras, a three-time All-Star who gained notoriety with the Cubs. At age 30, coming off a season where he posted a career-high 128 OPS+, Contreras would satisfy the needs for both a primary catcher and a middle-of-the-order bat. (Plus, he could DH a fair amount and keep Jeffers solidly in the mix.) As I wrote in the Handbook, "If you're looking for a place the Twins could flex their ample spending flexibility if they miss out on the shortstop and pitching markets, this is the obvious answer." He'll be in high demand and certainly has his downsides, which are also explored in the chapter. So maybe you want to set your gaze slightly lower: Do you want to gamble on a free agent who could be your #1 primary catcher, but also could blow up entirely? Mike Zunino, Christian Vázquez, and Omar Narváez are examples of former standout – even star-caliber – catchers who are coming off down years. You'd be buying low on any of them and taking on a considerable amount of risk. But they'll also bring real upside while requiring short-term commitments. If none of the free agent options in these three categories are appealing, there's only one option remaining. You want to trade for a new primary catcher. Several intriguing options could be in play, with Sean Murphy of the Athletics being the most exciting. The Twins would need to pony up big-time in order to acquire a controllable catcher, but you can certainly make an argument it's justified given how heavily their organizational talent is distributed at other positions. If you're a Twins Daily Caretaker, you can download the full chapter and explore these questions more deeply. If you're not subscribed yet, you can sign up as a supporter of our community for as little as $6/month and get access to this plus all other Offseason Handbook content as it drops. Which of the four routes laid out above is most appealing to you when it comes to approaching the catcher market? View full article

They do?? ? I thought I was mostly aiming on the high side. Most of these guys are not in a strong position to market themselves, and there are at least 8 better SPs than all of them in free agency.

Any such agreement came off the table when he missed an entire season with Tommy John, IMO. (And earned $3M to not pitch, fwiw.) If it's true that he can be "fantastic in the bullpen" then the Twins should use him in the way that helps them most. I like Kenta but I don't think think he has much of a leg to stand on after being bad in 2021 and throwing zero innings in 2022.

Ideally the Twins will aim toward the top end of starting pitching free agency this offseason. History tells us they won't. Luckily, this year's market features strong depth in terms of mid-rotation starters with upside to be more. Today we'll look at 15 free agent options in that range. Image courtesy of Bill Streicher, Gary A. Vasquez, Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports Earlier this week, we set the bar for where the Twins front office needs to aim in reinforcing the rotation: the Sonny Gray Threshold. In the Offseason Handbook, we highlighted eight free agents who arguably fall above that threshold – No. 1 caliber starters who would slot above Gray. The Twins certainly have the financial flexibility to pursue one of those arms if Carlos Correa isn't re-signed, but still, we have to acknowledge that they've never waded into that deepest end of the SP pool before. Based on their track record, it's much more likely this front office shops at the next tier, which isn't the worst news because there is some quality to be found and maybe even some decent values. These are the most likely free agent targets for the Twins. None would be particularly exciting as a primary addition for the rotation, but they are all potential playoff starters, and failing to acquire someone AT LEAST at this level would be downright unacceptable. 1. José Quintana, LHP Former Team: Cardinals Age: 34 The cutoff for my "Sonny Gray Threshold" was in between Martín Peréz, the last player profiled in my Handbook story, and Quintana, the first player profiled here. Admittedly, it's a very thin line, because these are both previously underwhelming veteran left-handers coming off breakthrough seasons where they pitched like legitimate No. 1 starters, despite unimpressive K-rates. I'm less high on Quintana – who posted a fantastic 2.93 ERA and 2.99 FIP in 32 starts for the Pirates and Cardinals – because he's a few years older (turning 34 in January) and threw 30 fewer innings. You'd be buying high on either southpaw, but in both cases, there's no knocking the 2022 performance. Estimated Contract: 3 years, $45 million 2. Noah Syndergaard, RHP Former Team: Phillies Age: 30 I'll be fascinated to see how Syndergaard's market takes shape. He's got the big name, the mighty aura, the flashy track record. He also pitched two total innings between 2020 and '21, and in his return to action last year he was ... Thor Lite. The fastball velo was way down, along with the strikeouts. He posted a 3.94 ERA and 3.83 FIP in 134.2 IP between the Angels and Phillies. Even in this lesser form, Syndergaard was still solid, but if you're signing him it's probably based on the belief that his velocity and dominance will return. At this point that's a leap of faith. Estimated Contract: 3 years, $51 million 3. Taijuan Walker, RHP Former Team: Mets Age: 30 There were rumblings that the Twins were close to signing Walker ahead of the 2020 season, banking on a return to form for the former top prospect who missed nearly all of 2018-19. No deal ended up materializing, but their instinct was right: Walker has stayed mostly healthy in three seasons since, posting a 3.80 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. He has a player option but is sure to opt out in search of a multi-year deal coming off a strong season. He's one of the youngest players on this list. Estimated Contract: 4 years, $52 million 4. Kodai Senga, RHP Former Team: Fukuoka Softbank Hawks (Japan) Age: 30 One of the biggest pitching stars in Japan is reportedly set to opt out of his contract and pursue a deal in the majors. Senga has been excellent in NPB, where he posted a pristine 1.89 ERA last year with 159 strikeouts and seven home runs allowed in 148 innings. There is obviously uncertainty about how his game will translate to MLB. With a mid-90s fastball accompanied by unremarkable secondary stuff, he's definitely not on the Masahiro Tanaka or Yu Darvish tier, but Senga could be a quality #2 type. A big risk but a potentially intriguing one. Estimated Contract: 4 years, $50 million 5. Sean Manaea, LHP Former Team: Padres Age: 31 He was the apple of many a Twins fan's eye last offseason, when the Athletics were known to be dangling him. Manaea ended up going to the San Diego, and didn't have a very good season: 158 IP, 4.96 ERA, 4.53 FIP, 29 HR allowed. His stock is down, but there's a reason he was in demand to begin with: Manaea has consistently been a quality performer while at times flashing top-of-rotation upside. Even in his disappointing 2022 he still averaged about a strike out per inning. Estimated Contract: 3 years, $48 million 6. Michael Wacha, RHP Former Team: Red Sox Age: 31 Once a promising young 17-game winner for the Cardinals, Wacha's career was derailed in his late 20s to the point where he had to take a one-year make-good deal with the Red Sox last offseason. He made good indeed, going 11-2 with a 3.32 ERA in 127.1 IP, but the underlying metrics weren't that impressive and Wacha's prior recent track record was brutal (5.11 ERA in 2019-21). There's a lot of risk in gambling on him, and I'm not sure how much reward. Estimated Contract: 3 years, $45 million 7. Jameson Taillon, RHP Former Team: Yankees Age: 31 When they acquired Taillon from the Pirates, the Yankees hoped to emulate what Houston did with Gerrit Cole: extract an underperforming former top draft pick from Pittsburgh's rotation and unlock his true potential. That didn't happen. Taillon was much more good than great during two seasons in the Bronx, posting a 4.08 ERA in 322 innings – translating to a 100 ERA+ that rates him as exactly average. That said, he's been pretty durable and his 4.72 K/BB ratio in 2022 is appealing. Contract Estimate: 3 years, $36 million 8. Zach Eflin, RHP Former Team: Phillies Age: 28 Advanced metrics have always viewed Eflin more favorably than his core results, which amount to a 4.49 ERA in about 650 career innings. He has very good control but isn't dominant, with middling fastball speeds and strikeout rates that belie his big 6-foot-6 frame. I'd describe him as the very definition of a mid-rotation starter, but a fairly reliable one at that. His biggest selling point perhaps is his age – still only 28 as of next Opening Day. Estimated Contract: 3 years, $36 million 9. Andrew Heaney, LHP Former Team: Dodgers Age: 31 Much like with Tyler Anderson, the Dodgers gambled on Heaney with a one-year deal, believing that the left-hander had much more ability in him than the sub-par numbers showed. Much like with Anderson, that gamble paid off in a big way, as Heaney dominated to the tune of a 3.10 ERA and 13.6 K/9 rate. The only reason he's not alongside Anderson on this list is that he simply didn't have the volume – only 73 innings thrown in 14 appearances (12 starts) due to injuries. His preceding track record is also much uglier than Anderson's. Still, Heaney finally realized his frontline stuff this year and offers tantalizing upside. Estimated Contract: 2 years, $28 million 10. Drew Smyly, LHP Former Team: Cubs Age: 33 The veteran lefty lost his entire 2017-18 seasons to injury, and has since bounced around a whole bunch: from Texas to Philly to San Francisco to Atlanta to Chicago, all within a span of four years. So many teams have seen promise in his undeniably intriguing stuff from the left side but no one's been able to fully unlock his top performance over an extended period. The Cubs came as close as anyone this past season, where he had a 3.47 ERA over 106.1 IP, but he posted a career-low K-rate and home runs continued to haunt him (he's allowed 77 in 373.1 IP since 2019). He does have a mutual option with Chicago although those rarely seem to get activated. Estimated Contract: 2 years, $18 million 11. Ross Stripling, RHP Former Team: Blue Jays Age: 33 Stripling is, in many ways, a prototype pitcher for this front office: a hybrid pitcher who's consistently phased between starting and relieving, while remaining mostly successful in both roles: he has a 3.86 career ERA as a starter, 3.51 as a reliever. The right-hander is coming off a season where he won 10 games and posted a 3.01 ERA in 134.1 IP for Toronto, so he'll probably be looked at as more of a starter with swingman qualities. Estimated Contract: 2 years, $18 million 12. Jake Odorizzi, RHP Former Team: Braves Age: 33 Odorizzi once again heads into free agency on a sour note. Following a strong first half in Houston, he was traded to Atlanta, where he posted a 5.24 ERA in 46.1 IP and dealt with arm fatigue, then struggled in one postseason appearance. Despite the flat finish, he'll still probably turn down his $6.5 million player option in search of a somewhat larger payday. But much like after his 2020 season, which was ravaged to the core by injuries, Odo won't be in a position to command a ton. He projects are more of back-of-rotation starter at this point but Twins fans have seen him at his best; maybe it's still in there somewhere. Estimated Contract: 2 years, $14 million 13. Corey Kluber, RHP Former Team: Rays Age: 36 We probably need to divorce ourselves from the idea that the two-time Cy Young winner will ever regain his previous form. But that doesn't mean he can't be, or hasn't been, effective in this reduced state. He posted a 4.34 ERA and 3.57 FIP in 164 innings for Tampa in 2022. While he no longer has the stuff to blow people away, with a fastball that's dropped to the high 80s, he still gets people to chase his slider. And one strength that HAS returned is his elite control – he led the league in BB/9 this year, as he did in 2017 and 2018. Estimated Contract: 1 year, $12 million 14. Kyle Gibson. RHP Former Team: Phillies Age: 35 Another former Twin and former All-Star whose stock is down. Gibson had a career year in 2021, posting a 3.75 ERA and 3.0 fWAR in 182 innings, but the past season was more of a struggle: 5.05 ERA, 1.8 fWAR in 167.2 IP. He just turned 35 and it's hard to see much upside left, but Gibson has been durable (29-plus starts in every non-pandemic year since 2017) and steadily solid. He falls well short of the Sonny Gray Threshold but can't be ignored as an option given the familiarity and likelihood of a short-term deal. Estimated Contract: 1 year, $8 million 15. Wade Miley, LHP Former Team: Cubs Age: 36 The well-traveled veteran was limited to just 37 innings in 2022 due to elbow inflammation and a shoulder strain. After missing most of the season, he came back and pitched pretty well in September, as if to make a statement about his readiness to rebound next year. Miley has consistently pitched well when on the mound, and he'll probably be available for an incentive-laden one-year deal, which is up Minnesota's alley. But his age combined with two scary arm issues this past season pose a lot of risk for a team that's trying to steer toward dependability. Estimated Contract: 1 year, $5 million View full article

The Twins already have rotation depth going into 2023, at least in terms of pure quantity. They don't need more bottom-of-rotation starters like Dylan Bundy or Chris Archer. What they need to do is acquire someone at or above what I call the 'Sonny Gray Threshold.' It'll be our guiding barometer as we assess the team's rotation strategy this offseason. Image courtesy of Lindsey Wasson-USA TODAY Sports I am of the opinion that it's a failure if the Twins go into 2023 with Sonny Gray as their standalone No. 1 starter. This might've been the underlying rationale behind adding Tyler Mahle at the deadline, but unfortunately, Mahle should be viewed as no more than a question mark and hopeful contributor for next year. You simply can't plan around a guy who threw 16 innings after being acquired, and finished on the injured list with an unresolved shoulder issue. Kenta Maeda, much like Mahle, is a pitcher who's shown top-of-rotation ability but can't be firmly depended upon for a whole lot. At age 35, with only 173 total innings under his belt over the past three seasons, the Twins may be best off placing him in a long relief or swingman role, as he often filled in Los Angeles. Meanwhile, Gray himself was limited to just 120 innings in 2022, with multiple hamstring injuries disrupting a full season even by his modest standards for what one looks like. With all this instability near the top of the rotation, the Twins really need to add a proven, durable, high-caliber starter who would be a credible option to start a postseason game. They need near, or ideally above, the level of Gray. In the newest chapter of the Offseason Handbook, Reinforcing the Rotation, I took a look eight high-end free agents and 10 potential trade targets who arguably land at or above the Sonny Gray Threshold. I also broke down the internal pitching pipeline with a look at which prospects might be able to help, and when. It's all now available to download for Caretakers, who can also access our previously released Handbook installments covering the payroll and the future of shortstop. If you're not a Caretaker already, you can sign up here for as little as $6/month and get plenty of other perks including free entry to the Winter Meltdown (details coming soon!). Of course, there will also be plenty of free content available to everyone on the site this week a we take a collective deep dive into the Twins' starting pitching needs and options. Stay tuned and let's see if we can surpass the Sonny Gray Threshold. View full article

Let's be clear, the Twins didn't really win a bidding war for Correa. They took advantage of very unique circumstances in a unique offseason. It's not like they were throwing out $250M offers like they'd need to do in order to re-sign Correa, or get into the convo for Turner/Bogaerts. Also, there are other ways to spend that extra money if they don't use it on a SS. I think suggesting that all light-hitting, glove-first defenders at SS are the same is misguided. Someone like Nick Ahmed, at his peak, is a huge difference-maker because of what he does in the field. That 670 OPS hasn't prevented him from putting up basically the same career WAR as Jorge Polanco.

It's subjective, and you make a good case for the validity of Iglesias. To me, it comes down to this: Andrus has shown he can be a legitimately valuable player over the past two seasons (5.1 fWAR). Iglesias, less so (2.7 fWAR). I'm not convinced Iglesias is much of a defender at SS anymore. Statcast agrees. You can live with Iglesias as a plug-in but Andrus has actually flashed modest upside of late. That's the difference maker for me.