Nick Nelson

The Twins clearly need to trade for relief help before the upcoming August 2nd deadline arrives. And they're going to How much will it make a difference for the better? The past paints a checkered picture. For the sake of keeping things succinct and semi-relevant, we're going to limit this retrospective analysis to the Target Field years. Which of course means we begin with one of the most infamous deadline deals in franchise history. 2010 July 29: Twins Trade C Wilson Ramos to Nationals for RHP Matt Capps In a classic Minnesota Sports Twist of Fate™, legendary Twins closer Joe Nathan tore his UCL in spring training of 2010 – a season where the Twins would go on to field arguably the best team of their entire run under Ron Gardenhire. As the deadline approached, the team had one glaring need, at least in the eyes of a front office led by general manager Bill Smith: a proven veteran closer to offset the loss of Nathan. Sure, Jon Rauch – acquired in a post-deadline deal the previous season – had been doing a perfectly adequate job, but he didn't have all those precious saves on his résumé. In a display of the backwards thinking that would soon lead the franchise into a complete and sustained collapse, Smith's front office made the outrageous decision to trade away a highly touted, MLB-ready, slugging catcher in 22-year-old Wilson Ramos, to acquire Matt Capps from Washington. Capps was a pretty ordinary reliever who entranced the Twins with his good first half and experience as a closer (even though he'd been terrible the previous year). In fairness, he proved to be a successful acquisition for the 2010 season, posting a 2.00 ERA and converting 16 of 18 saves the rest of the way. But he was inconsequential in the playoffs, as the Twins never had a late lead against New York. Capps was bad the next season, hurt in 2012, and then done as a major-leaguer before turning 30. Ramos went on to finish fourth in Rookie of the Year voting in 2011, and make two All-Star games in an impressive MLB career that isn't necessarily over yet. He's currently rehabbing from ACL surgery at age 34. His loss became especially painful when Joe Mauer had to move off catcher a year later and the Twins were left with an empty cupboard at catcher. One of the worst trades in Minnesota Twins history, bar none – in large part because it was so obviously a horrendous decision at the moment it was made. 2015 July 31: Twins Trade Pitching Prospects Chih-Wei Hu and Alexis Tapia to Rays for RHP Kevin Jepsen This move, like the previous one, was driven by the Twins realizing a need in the late innings due to injuries impacting their star closer. Glen Perkins did not experience a season-ending injury in 2015 -- in fact, he made his third straight All-Star Game -- but as the trade deadline approached, it became clear something was amiss. He blew two saves in the second half of July as his strikeouts evaporated and hitters began to tee off. Finding themselves on the fringe of postseason contention for the first time in five years, Terry Ryan and the Twins knew they needed to shore up the bullpen. They struck a deal on deadline day to acquire Kevin Jepsen from the Rays in exchange for a pair of lower-tier pitching prospects. The Twins actually deserve a lot of credit for this move, even if it didn't pay real dividends as they missed the playoffs by a longshot. Jepsen pitched very well -- much better than he had up to that point in Tampa, or really at any point in his eight-year career, spent mostly with the Angels. In 29 appearances for the Twins, Jepsen posted a 1.61 ERA and 0.89 WHIP over 28 innings, converting 10-of-11 saves. Much like with Capps, it was all downhill from there. Jepsen absolutely bombed for the 2016 Twins, posting a 6.16 ERA in 33 appearances before they cut him loose in July. From there, he was pretty much done as a big-leaguer, posting a 5.80 ERA in 35 ⅔ innings for the Rays and Rangers. Capps was 27 when the Twins acquired him; Jepsen had just turned 31. Both were performing well and at least somewhat highly regarded. And yet both were essentially out of baseball after short, doomed stints with the team. Really something. In any case, the return on this deal never hurt the Twins. Chih-Wei Hu appeared briefly in the majors but fizzled out after 23 innings. He's now pitching in China. Alexis Tapia never got past Single-A. 2019 July 27: Twins Trade 1B Lewin Diaz to Marlins for RHP Sergio Romo Of all trades in this category from the past couple of decades, this is probably the prototype for getting it right. The Twins gave up a decent but hardly indispensable prospect in Lewin Diaz, and got back a veteran rental reliever who was (almost) everything they wanted him to be. A 12-year MLB veteran and three-time World Series champ, Sergio Romo was flat-out excellent down the stretch, posting a 3.18 ERA and 27-to-4 K/BB ratio in 22 ⅔ innings to help stabilize the bullpen and lock up a division crown. They liked him enough that they re-signed him as a free agent in the offseason, although that proved to be perhaps not a great choice. Diaz still has a chance to haunt the Twins, I guess. He's only 25 and has hit well enough at Triple-A to get some chances with James Rowson's Marlins. But even if not for this trade, Minnesota would've likely moved on a while long ago. It should be noted that while this has to be viewed as one of the franchise's most successful trades for a reliever at the deadline, they still didn't really get what they wanted out of it. Part of Romo's appeal was in his postseason track record, but that paid no dividends for the Twins. He gave up two runs in two innings in the 2019 ALDS and then had a meltdown in his lone appearance against Houston in 2020. July 31: Twins Trade 3 Prospects to Giants for RHP Sam Dyson And we conclude with the prototype for getting it wrong. So very, very wrong. The ill-fated trade with the Giants for Sam Dyson went sour almost immediately, with the Twins front office seemingly taking an unfair share of criticism in a situation where they themselves were bamboozled. The announcement of a move for Dyson trickled in just as the 3:00 PM deadline elapsed on the 31st, with the Twins sending a package of three semi-interesting prospects (outfielder Jaylin Davis, pitchers Kai-Wei Tang and Prelander Berroa) to San Francisco in the deal. Dyson was enjoying a very good season, with a 2.47 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 51 innings. Upon arriving in Minnesota, he fell apart right away, coughing up six earned runs while recording two outs in his first two appearances. Demoted instantly to a middle-innings role, the right-hander sputtered through 10 more unimpressive appearances before being shut down and revealing that he'd been dealing with shoulder pain since well before the trade. The Twins, miffed by the transaction of damaged goods, launched an investigation into the Giants, who claimed to unaware of Dyson's non-disclosed injury. It didn't go anywhere, that I know of. To top it all off, Dyson was subsequently outed as an even worse person than pitcher. Allegations by his ex-girlfriend Alexis Blackburn that November led to the reliever receiving the longest-ever suspension under MLB's domestic violence policy. More recently, this past December, Blackburn filed in court for accusations of rape, battery, and infliction of emotional distress against Dyson. He's all but certainly done as a big-leaguer, joining Capps and Jepsen as relatively young and effective relievers (he was 31 when acquired) who came to the Twins and saw their careers end very quickly -- albeit under very different circumstances here. The Twins certainly couldn't have known anything about Dyson's off-field issues, and they also didn't know about his pre-existing injury. That's the nature of last-minute deadline deals ... you don't really have an opportunity to complete in-depth medical evaluations. But maybe that's the lesson that can be taken away from this unfortunate example: when you wait until literally the last moment before the deadline, you leave yourself in a situation where your options become limited and your decisions can become rushed. Maybe it's no surprise that the reliever they acquired four days earlier worked out much better. In other words, it would be good to see the Twins act a bit more quickly on their needs this time around. The trade deadline is 12 days away. View full article

Here's the part where I obligatorily remind people that the Twins played three playoff series with Johan Santana as their #1 starter and won zero of them.

The Twins scored 2 runs in the second game and 1 run in the third. No amount of pitching was going to carry them through that series against a great Yankees lineup. Ditto the next year against Houston. It's a fanciful scenario you've concocted though, I'll give you that! Having a true ace makes a difference in the playoffs. It's just not everything. Frankly a star two-way player like Buxton is quite a bit more important -- thus the irony of your OP. And Syndergaard wasn't pitching like a "true ace" at that point anyway.

Well that wouldn't have happened because: 1: Syndergaard was terrible down the stretch (6.69 ERA in his last 7 starts) likely because his elbow wasn't quite right (had TJ surgery at the beginning of 2020). 2: One pitcher wasn't going to be the difference between getting decisively swept in the ALDS and winning the World Series. Like, we don't have to hypothesize here, we have actual evidence. If the Twins had made that trade they'd now be without Buxton and without Syndergaard, and with nothing of substance to show for it. Maybe they win a single game in the first round of the playoffs. You'd take that? This is my struggle with these "go all-in at the deadline" conversations. There's such a tendency to fantasize about some grand exaggerated impact, while completely downplaying the repeatedly proven risks and downsides.

Again: no one is denying that they should (and will) get pitching help. The complicated question being addressed is how aggressive they should be and how much they should be willing to sacrifice to improve their chances this year. As for Jeffers, he ranks second to Polanco in OPS at the past month at 868. Meanwhile Gary Sanchez is at 578 during that span and Caleb Hamilton has never played in the majors. Not to mention the extreme defensive drop-off. You are underrating the severity of this loss.

This front office has an interesting history with the trade deadline – starting with their controversial first go at it in 2017 when they flip-flopped from buyers to sellers in about a week's time, stirring up some angst in the home clubhouse. The 2022 trade deadline has a chance to be this regime's most pivotal and pressure-packed yet. How much are the Twins willing to push – and sacrifice – in order to supplement a flawed, fading first-place team? Not so long ago, it appeared as though the Twins might be able to get by with a couple of bullpen pickups at the trade deadline. Not that doing so was going to make them World Series favorites or anything, but when the offense was clicking and supported by a consistently solid rotation? The front office might have believed – or at least publicly advanced – that a few relief upgrades would sufficiently help them secure the division and present a credible postseason threat. Much has changed in a few weeks' time. With the rotation nosediving into the break, and their lineup now missing a key piece in Ryan Jeffers, the Twins have seen their list of needs grow as the deadline approaches. At this point, to position themselves as true contenders, it feels like they need to add a frontline starter for sure, and they could really use a catcher. Meanwhile those pesky bullpen needs have not gone away. Far from it. That makes for a hefty shopping list. To fulfill all of these needs at high-demand positions in a seller's market will be very costly. Facing this harsh reality, the front office is going to have to ask itself: Is it worth it? Acquiring the kind of impact talent needed to put this team in a strong position will mean making painful sacrifices. If they really want to push, the Twins will need to part with a quantity of high-caliber prospect talent and maybe even established young players like José Miranda, Trevor Larnach, or Alex Kirilloff. There's also a strong case to be made that big, splashy deadline moves aren't as impactful as many perceive – not to mention the frequency of costly backfires. (Imagine if the Twins traded Byron Buxton for Noah Syndergaard at the 2019 deadline.) Atlanta's 2021 exemplifies how a more conservative, low-wattage approach to addressing various needs can work. Of course, such thinking won't do much to satiate fans who are hungry for decisive and definitive action. And maybe that's the right attitude. Even if Derek Falvey and Thad Levine always seemed to be setting their gaze more on 2023 and beyond with the latest offseason strategy, they can't take for granted where they're at right now. They can't take for granted they'll have Buxton and Luis Arraez both healthy and playing at an All-Star level next year. They can't take for granted they'll have anything approximating the force that is Carlos Correa on their roster. They can't take for granted they'll be in first place at the break, with a chance to act as a buyer and aspiring champ, because we saw just last year how the best laid plans can go awry. Logical as they are, this front office understands that once you get to the playoffs, anything can happen. (Yes, even for the Twins.) They know that these opportunities don't present themselves every year. And they didn't throw $35 million at Correa for no reason. All of which leads me to believe the Twins will assuredly be active at the trade deadline. They are going to make multiple moves. As to how bold and audacious those additions will be? That's the big question, and we'll find out soon enough. With the deadline now less than two weeks away, we'll be covering every rumor worth sharing here at Twins Daily. And starting today, we're rolling out special trade deadline preview content for those who contribute to the caretaker fund at any tier. Each of the next six weekdays we'll be sending out "Division Dossiers" with breakdowns of buyers and sellers, as well as trade targets who might appeal to the Twins from each team. This is the top-secret intel you need to be ready for anything during Deadline SZN. Check out a preview snippet below, and if you haven't already, sign up as a caretaker now to get the full dossier plus five more in the week ahead. View full article

The All-Star break has arrived, and the Minnesota Twins are breaking down. A tough injury to a key player topped off a deflating finish to the first half. Can they use the coming time off as an opportunity to turn around their lengthy run of underwhelming performance? Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 7/11 through Sun, 7/17 *** Record Last Week: 2-4 (Overall: 50-44) Run Differential Last Week: -22 (Overall: +28) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (2.0 GA) Last Week's Game Results: Game 89 | MIL 6, MIN 3: Winder Struggles in Rainy, Delay-Filled Loss Game 90 | MIN 4, MIL 1: Miranda Delivers with 9th-Inning Walk-Off Game 91 | CWS 12, MIN 2: Gray Knocked Around as Sox Rout Twins Game 92 | CWS 6, MIN 2: Twins Outplayed by White Sox Again Game 93 | MIN 6, CWS 3: Arraez, Correa Homer as Lineup Awakens Game 94 | CWS 11, MIN 0: Blowout Concludes First Half NEWS & NOTES On May 24th, the Twins won their sixth consecutive game to move 11 games over .500, at 27-16. They were five and a half games up in the division. Since then, they've gone 23-28, failing to extend that division lead because they've failed to settle into a sustained groove at any point. While Rocco Baldelli and the Twins deserve credit for their resiliency – they haven't lost more than three games in a row all season – they also have earned criticism for their inability to get on a roll, winning more than two consecutive games only once in the past eight weeks (they won three straight June 25-27). A consistently leaky bullpen has been a big culprit, but so too is a feast-or-famine offense that goes into maddening slumps – an issue that re-emerged in a disappointing final week of the first half. And the lineup has now unfortunately lost a critical piece. Ryan Jeffers had been coming around in a big way, with an .847 OPS in his past 20 games, before lingering thumb pain forced him to the injured list on Friday. Further scans revealed a small fracture requiring surgery, so Jeffers will be out 6-to-8 weeks – most of the remaining regular season. Replacing him is Caleb Hamilton, a six-year minor-league veteran who has earned his chance by playing really well in St. Paul, where he was slashing .252/.387/.491 in 49 games, splitting time between catcher, third, and DH. He'll serve as backup catcher with Gary Sánchez elevating into a primary starter role. Josh Winder was optioned back to Triple-A after an uninspiring effort against the Brewers on Tuesday, with Joe Smith returning from IL to the bullpen. Smith had an unconscionably bad outing in Sunday's loss, and is immediately in DFA territory. Devin Smeltzer, experiencing some hardcore regression in his own right, followed Winder to Triple-A on Sunday to make room for Chris Archer, who was also bad on Sunday. While Winder and Smeltzer try to battle their way back to the majors, Miguel Sanó's campaign is already well underway. He launched two home runs for the Saints on Saturday night. There's been talk of the Twins moving on without Sanó, who has about a week left on his rehab designation, but I'm not sure how they could pass up the chance to at least try and unlock his difference-making potential, if it's still in there. They need a spark. HIGHLIGHTS When the Twins lineup has gotten a spark lately, it's generally been coming from the young sluggers, which is a good sign. José Miranda came through with his biggest hit as a major-leaguer on Wednesday, launching a walk-off three-run homer in the ninth against Milwaukee. His celebratory stare into the dugout was epic – another of those signature "I belong" moments. Miranda pairs with Alex Kirilloff to paint an exciting future for the middle of the Twins lineup from both sides of the plate. Kirilloff went 6-for-20 in a week that included a key two-run double with two outs. He's taken on the much-needed role of a run producer, with 20 RBIs in 28 games since returning from Triple-A. Carlos Correa enjoyed a good week with six hits including a big home run in Saturday's win. Jorge Polanco chipped in two more homers as his mid-summer power surge rages on. While the bullpen as a unit has not been a highlight for the Twins through the break, Jhoan Duran is a huge exception (literally) and one of the team's most important players. The 6-foot-5 fireballer closed out his first half in style on Saturday with a two-inning save that included two strikeouts. He previously picked up the win on Wednesday, escaping a tight spot in the ninth to set up Miranda's magic. LOWLIGHTS Byron Buxton feels like a perfect embodiment of the Twins offense as a whole, which I suppose is fitting since he's become the face of the franchise. Both he and the lineup are extremely talented and powerful, capable of more or less carrying the team at times. But they're also prone to major slumps where they are providing basically nothing. It's been one of those latter periods for Buxton lately – and by no coincidence the Twins are going through one of their worst stretches of the season. Buck's all-or-nothing approach is producing the latter result all often, making him more of a liability than asset while frequently playing at DH and always near the top of the order. The past week saw him go 5-for-22 with 11 strikeouts and one walk. He scored twice and drove in one. Dating back to the explosion in early June when he hit four home runs in two days against New York and Tampa, Buxton is batting .185 with a .254 OBP. It's a really strange time for Buxton fans such as myself. He was named an All-Star Game starter on Sunday, replacing Mike Trout. It's great to see him getting his due. At the same time, he's going through one of the worst prolonged stretches of his post-breakout career. Buxton's supposed to be leading this offense as its elite centerpiece, but instead he's throttling it by making out after out. Can some mental and physical rest in the week ahead help him straighten out his spiraling game? The top of the Twins rotation is looking shaky with Sonny Gray stumbling his way into the break. He backed up a disappointing letdown in Texas with an even worse performance against the White Sox at Target Field. Gray had nothing working on Thursday night, surrendering six earned runs on nine hits, including a back-breaking grand slam by Luis Robert. He couldn't get through four innings. That's been a trend for the starters. Smeltzer failed to complete four innings on Friday and Archer couldn't get through five in his return from IL on Sunday. Winder surrendered five innings on Tuesday, and now has a 9-to-10 K/BB ratio in 23 innings his past five appearances after starting out 20-to-4 in his first 22 ⅓. At one point, Winder and Smeltzer were looking like impact reinforcements for a rotation led by the high-performing veteran in Gray and aided by a sneaky free agent pickup in Archer. Now all of these things are in question, or worse, and it's got the looks of a house of cards ready to collapse. If it hasn't already. The Twins bullpen has barely equipped to supplement a good rotation. It has no hope of making up for a bad one. TRENDING STORYLINE This team needs serious help. A few weeks ago, one could've argued that a frontline starter was a nice-to-have more so than an essential addition. I don't think you can make that case anymore. If the Twins have any aspirations of a postseason run, they need to bring in a starter who is as good or better than Gray. That's pretty cut and dry. They also, obviously, need at least one impact reliever and probably two. AND they may now find themselves in the market for a catcher, in light of the Jeffers news. The coming trade deadline – coming up in just over two weeks, on August 2nd – figures to be one of the most intriguing and consequential for the Twins in many years. We'll have plenty of coverage here at Twins Daily, including special premium content for caretakers: division-by-division breakdowns of buyers, sellers, and targets of interest for the Twins – delivered to your inbox. If you haven't yet, make sure to sign up at any tier to ensure you don't miss out. LOOKING AHEAD Lots of time off. Then a two-game series in Detroit to kick off the second half. SATURDAY, 7/23: TWINS @ TIGERS SUNDAY, 7/24: TWINS @ TIGERS View full article

In the first full week following the abrupt departure of their pitching coach, the Minnesota Twins saw their pitching results spiral in a nearly staff-wide implosion, with leads repeatedly evaporating. The result was another unfulfilling .500 week that felt like it should have been much more. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 7/4 through Sun, 7/10 *** Record Last Week: 3-3 (Overall: 48-40) Run Differential Last Week: +6 (Overall: +50) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (4.5 GA) Last Week's Game Results: Game 83 | MIN 6, CWS 3: Buxton, Arraez Key 10th-Inning Win Game 84 | MIN 8, CWS 2: Offense Bashes 5 Homers in Blowout Game 85 | CWS 9, MIN 8: Twins Walked Off in Wild Series Finale Game 86 | TEX 6, MIN 5: 6-Run 5th Inning Sinks Twins in Texas Game 87 | TEX 9, MIN 7: Arms Can't Back Up Offensive Flurry Game 88 | MIN 6, TEX 5: Twins Finally Squeak Out a Close One NEWS & NOTES It seemed noteworthy when the Twins decided to bring Josh Winder on their latest road trip as a member of the taxi squad, bypassing his scheduled start for the Saints. Sure enough, Winder stepped in to start against the White Sox on Tuesday with Chris Archer going on the injured list. Archer's ailment was described as "left hip tightness" but it sounds like mostly a maintenance break for the oft-injured starter. He figures to return just after the All-Star break. Elsewhere on the pitching staff, Trevor Megill was activated from IL and swapped in for Juan Minaya, who cleared waivers and was outrighted to St. Paul. Minaya follows Tyler Thornburg, who did the same to make room for Minaya just days earlier. The bullpen continues to be a revolving door as fans impatiently await a more impactful deadline addition. Last Monday, Miguel Sanó officially kicked off a rehab stint in Florida as he progresses toward a return from knee surgery. Sanó launched a pair of home runs on Saturday night for the FCL Twins – a promising sign even if against rookie-league competition. He's probably a couple of weeks away from returning to the Twins, and it'll be interesting to see how they work him back into the mix with a suddenly crowded (and highly productive) offensive group. HIGHLIGHTS The offense was clicking all week, scoring five or more runs in all six games thanks to a power-hitting onslaught that included 15 home runs and 12 doubles among 63 total hits. Plenty of contributors got in on the action, with these standout performances leading the way: Jorge Polanco launched three home runs and drove in six. He's slugging .600 with five bombs in 11 games since coming off the injured list. Safe to say his back his feeling better. Polanco is also showing a keen eye at the plate, with seven walks drawn in 28 plate appearances over the past week. Luis Arraez kept on plugging away, finishing 10-for-25 (.400) even with an 0-fer in Sunday's series finale against the Rangers. His batting average continues to hover around the .350 mark, leading all of baseball. He was named an All-Star reserve on Monday alongside Byron Buxton. Max Kepler, now routinely appearing in the cleanup spot against right-handed pitchers, went 8-for-25 with a home run. Batting .244, Kepler is characteristically being suppressed by a low BABIP (albeit not as bad as in many years past), but he's offsetting it somewhat with much improved patience – his 13.2% BB rate is a career-high and at the high end of all MLB hitters – fueling a .350 on-base percentage. José Miranda continues to prove he belongs in the majors, and now looks more locked in than ever. He went 6-for-18 with two homers and seven RBIs, delivering multiple big hits in key spots. He struck out only once all week and has a 5-to-4 K/BB ratio in his past 20 contests, reflecting the improved discipline that's helped him turn around his offensive game. The Twins continue to solidify their elite standing as an offensive unit, with a team OPS+ ranking second in baseball behind only the Yankees. It's fitting, then, that their two All-Stars are the primary catalysts in the lineup – Buxton with his spectacular clutch power and Arraez with his unrivaled on-base skills and consistency. Seeing them receive this honor for the first time made for a special moment, especially because both players are so incredibly likable. LOWLIGHTS With all those runs coming across the plate, the offense certainly deserved better than a 3-3 week. Unfortunately, a rapidly unraveling pitching staff simply was not up to the task. The bullpen was a mess, coughing up leads repeatedly. That's nothing new, although Jhoan Duran being part of those woes rather than the exception was an unwelcome twist. He took the loss on Saturday night, yielding two runs on three hits and a walk in the eighth inning. He then put Sunday's win at risk, surrendering a (Gilberto Celestino-aided) home run to cut Minnesota's lead to one. Perhaps even more concerning than the bullpen's continued failures, which the Twins have managed to overcome in maintaining a sizable division lead, is the downturn of the rotation. Previously a source of stability, starters are beginning to see their fortunes shift for the worse. In some cases, this was more or less expected. Devin Smeltzer was clearly over-performing in his first several turns, and now his luck is catching up with a major HR regression. On Saturday he was taken deep three times for a second consecutive start. Joe Ryan, too, has had the long balls catch up to him in recent weeks. The fly ball pitcher gave up only three home runs in his first eight starts, but has allowed five in his past five starts, including a game-tying two-run blast by Eloy Jimenez in a Wednesday loss that saw Ryan and the relief corps cough up FIVE leads. But the leading concern in the rotation has to be Sonny Gray, who simply hasn't looked right since returning from a groin injury in mid-June. In five starts since coming back, he has pitched into the sixth inning only once, while barely resembling the dominating force that powered through the first two months. In 25 ⅔ innings since the latest IL stint, Gray has notched only 15 strikeouts – including zero on Friday night against the Rangers. This inability to limit contact is leading to longer at-bats, more hits, and a proneness to blow-up innings like the fifth on Friday, where he combined with Caleb Thielbar to turn a 3-0 lead into a 6-3 deficit. The Twins gave up one of their best young arms in Chase Petty (who's looking quite good in A-ball, as it happens) on the premise that Gray would bring a veteran edge to this rotation and serve as a relative workhorse among a bunch of young or embattled starters who – for various reasons – can't often be expected to go more than five or six innings. Gray looked like he was on his way to fulfilling that promise early on, but the recent results have been troubling and the outing at Arlington ranks as perhaps his worst of the season. They need him to step up. If indeed the groin is still playing some role in his diminished output, perhaps the All-Star break comes at a good time for him. TRENDING STORYLINE With one week to go until said break, the Twins have a chance to put the pedal to the metal a bit. They close out the first half with a six-game homestand against a pair of reasonably formidable opponents: the first-place Brewers and the ever-lurking White Sox. A strong week would send them into the midsummer hiatus with positive vibes and maybe a little more comfort. If so inclined, the Twins have an opportunity right now to take a step back from their typical "workload management" leanings. With the day off on Monday, followed by a five-day All-Star break next week, and then two days off the following week, Minnesota will have nearly as day off (eight) as on (10) in the next 18. It's a chance to push a little harder with guys like Buxton, and some of starters and relievers they've been trying to taking it easy on. And that comes at an opportune time as the Twins look to separate themselves a bit more in the division while the trade deadline looms. LOOKING AHEAD Six games, six right-handed pitchers on the docket – including one of the best in the biz in Corbin Burnes. To keep the offense rolling, the Twins will likely need left-handed bats like Arraez, Kepler, and Alex Kirilloff to play big roles. TUESDAY, 7/12: BREWERS @ TWINS – RHP Jason Alexander v. RHP Josh Winder WEDNESDAY, 7/13: BREWERS @ TWINS – RHP Corbin Burnes v. RHP Joe Ryan THURSDAY, 7/14: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Johnny Cueto v. RHP Sonny Gray FRIDAY, 7/15: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Michael Kopech v. LHP Devin Smeltzer SATURDAY, 7/16: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Lance Lynn v. RHP Dylan Bundy SUNDAY, 7/17: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Dylan Cease v. RHP Josh Winder View full article

I can still vividly remember the most formative weekend of my baseball fandom. In some ways, it led to everything I am today as a baseball writer and Twins Daily cofounder. It's why I'm so excited to be heading to Milwaukee with fellow TD partners this weekend to celebrate a new venture. If you're interested in learning more, come take a trip down memory lane. The year is 2006. I'm 20 years old, home from college for the summer, and my family is embarking on a road trip to see the Twins and Brewers in Milwaukee. This was planned partially because my parents enjoy baseball and love a good family vacation, but – in retrospect – maybe more due to their noticing my increasingly rabid interest in the Minnesota Twins. (About one year earlier, I'd started blogging about the team every other day.) Little could they have known how much this trip would fan the flames. We grab tickets for the Friday night game. It's my first trip to Miller Park. May 19th. On this date, a rookie named Francisco Liriano is making his first start of the '06 season. Given my now-ardent following of the team, I'm well aware of Liriano. He emerged as a top prospect after being scooped from San Francisco in the A.J. Pierzynski deal, and he's been dealing as a reliever for the first five weeks of the season. Much like the staff's current ace Johan Santana once did, Liriano is forcing the issue with his dominant performance in the bullpen. On this Friday evening in Milwaukee, the Twins finally let him loose as a starter. I'm sitting along the first base line with excellent seats (thanks Mom and Dad!) to take in the show. Not only does Liriano toss five innings of one-run ball, but he also hits a double at the plate – because, you know, those old National League rules. Liriano's win over the Brewers would set off an absolutely incredible run: he went 11-2 with a 1.65 ERA over his next 14 starts. His blazing fastball and wipeout slider blew everyone away. And the lefty's breakthrough coincided with one of the most spectacular stretches in Minnesota Twins history – a surge from 12 games out of first place in mid-July to 96 wins and a division title. Of course, Liriano's rookie season ended in heartbreak, as did the 2006 team's postseason flop. But I'll never forget being on hand for the game that sparked legendary runs for both. And that game isn't even my fondest Twins memory of that weekend. On Saturday, my family spends the afternoon in Milwaukee, and later that evening we're hanging out in the hotel. The news is playing on the TV, and my ears are perked by the mention of a Minnesota sports story. State legislature has approved a bill authorizing construction of a new Twins ballpark on the old Rapid Park site in Minneapolis' warehouse district. After years and years of starts, stops, and setbacks, it's finally gonna really happen. We're getting an actual ballpark. One week later, Governor Pawlenty would sign the official legislation before a big crowd at the Metrodome, ahead of a Twins game. (They won that game, by the way. Liriano threw five shutout innings in his second start.) Four years later, we were taking in baseball at Target Field, one of the finest baseball stadiums in the nation and a triumph in structural engineering. In the 12 years since, that yard has developed into one of my favorite places on Earth. During this time I've also had the privilege of taking part in the launch and growth of Twins Daily, a website dreamed up around the passion of fans and writers who also revel in the kinds of experiences I'm discussing here. Which brings us to the present occasion. On Saturday afternoon, in Milwaukee, I am beyond excited to hang and celebrate with a few of the folks who built TD alongside me as we celebrate the building of something new: a neighboring fan-driven community at Brewer Fanatic, following the same model and spirit as Twins Daily. We'll be tailgating and partying with folks from this community outside of Miller Pa––er, American Family Field and then catching a Brewers/Pirates game the best way: together with other hardcore baseball diehards. Sites like Twins Geek, Seth Speaks, Over the Baggy, and BYTO – which all essentially merged to become Twins Daily as we currently know it – were as instrumental in growing my fandom as that unforgettable 2006 season. I sincerely hope that Brewer Fanatic can serve a similar purpose for many Wisconsin baseball fans, even though I may dislike Wisconsin as a general concept. If they like ball, they're okay with me. Maybe my tune will change next week. Because, fittingly, as soon as the Brewers finish up with the Pirates this weekend they'll be heading to Target Field for a two-game series between two first-place teams. I'll likely be in attendance on Tuesday night. And while I might not be getting to witness the arrival party for the rookie sensation known as Francisco Liriano ... Josh Winder ain't a bad substitute. Especially when it's at the best stadium in the Midwest. (Sorry Brewer fanatics. No contest.) View full article

He currently has a career-high 5.0 BB/9 rate. His career mark is 2.5, he was a 2.6 last year, and he's never finished higher than 3.7. I don't think I need to explain why I find it reasonable to believe this will improve by year's end? Sometimes control/command comes and goes. He had a stretch prior to the Cleveland series where he walked 2 batters in 16 appearances.

The article does specifically address how & why he can improve though. Anyway, bottom line is that when you strike a bunch of guys out, you have more margin for error than a lot of other pitchers.

Pagan leads the team in saves and games finished, both by a wide margin. He's been the nearest thing to a "closer" they've had this season, and he only started pitching in earlier innings after getting his role bumped down semi-recently.

The front office's latest closer acquisition is being vilified much like the last one, and understandably so. But there's a path forward where things end differently this time around. The current iteration of the Minnesota Twins has numerous ties to the Tampa Bay Rays, including their manager and multiple members of the front office ranks. As such, maybe it should come as no surprise that they've targeted a handful of former Rays closers – Alex Colomé, Sergio Romo, Emilio Pagán – through various means, installing them in similar roles here. The Colomé signing, as we know, was a disaster. The Pagán trade is shaping up similarly. But here's the thing: Pagán may still be salvageable, and Colomé's example is a guiding light we can follow to this conclusion. It's easy to focus on the nightmare that was Colomé's April of 2021 – just as it's easy to focus on the nightmare that was Pagán's past couple weeks. But the reality is, even for a below-average reliever, once you remove the ugliest parts of a season, the rest tends to look okay. From May 1st until the end of last year, Colomé was completely fine: 56.1 IP, 3.51 ERA, 15-fo-19 on saves. Pagán had the reverse experience in San Diego – he had a 3.31 ERA on August 31st before completely falling apart in September. This year, Colomé is back to his old self, more or less, with a 2.45 ERA and no home runs allowed through 30 appearances for the Rockies. Pagán's "true self" might not be anything great but it's not nearly as bad as his latest stretch. And unless you think he's cooked, we probably just witnessed the worst of Pagán's 2022 season, meaning the best (or at least better) is yet to come. Here are a few reasons I find this plausible: He's throwing as hard as ever. In terms of raw stuff, there's no reason to think Pagán has lost his edge. He's averaging 95.2 MPH with his fastball (second only to his career-high 95.5 in 2019) and his spin rate on that pitch ranks in the 94th percentile. He has legitimately good pitches. The aforementioned fastball is holding opponents to a .190 average, even while he's struggled to locate it. His splitter has been truly dominant, with a .192 xwOBA and 39% whiff rate. He's throwing it less often than his cutter, which has been obliterated. I'm not going to act like that's some groundbreaking insight because obviously Twins coaches are aware of this data, but there's a real chance that pitch-mix adjustments make a big difference here. He's got the best credentials of anyone in this bullpen. That might change once Jhoan Duran's rookie season is over, but for now, no one in this relief corps can boast superior bona fides to Pagán and his sensational 2019 season in Tampa. He was a lights-out bullpen weapon for a 96-win team, posting a 2.31 ERA and 96-to-13 K/BB ratio over 70 innings. By the time Colomé came around last year, the campaign was already effectively sunk. His solid work in the second half was basically irrelevant. But Pagán still has a chance to make good. His struggles against Cleveland definitely stung, but the Twins still find themselves in first place by a decent margin. To hold on the rest of the way, they'll need all the help they can get from the bullpen, Pagán included. If he can harness the aforementioned strengths and get on a bit of a run – even the kind of luck-aided run that propelled him to a 2.45 ERA through mid-June – he could turn himself from part of the problem to part of the solution. From there? Who knows. While Colomé gave the Twins no real reason to consider exercising his 2022 option, Pagán has one more remaining year of control, and it's part of the reason they were drawn to him. A good second-half run could potentially punch his 2023 ticket. Keep in mind, Minnesota's bullpen has no veteran stability going forward – Taylor Rogers is gone, and Tyler Duffey and Joe Smith are expected to move on after this season. Pagán has been through the wringer, and it'll take a long time to earn back the trust of fans, but the path to redemption is right in front of him. He has what it takes to follow it. "I truly believe that with the way I'm throwing it, when you look up at the end of the year," Pagan said a few days ago, "I'm going to be one of the best relievers in baseball numbers-wise." Alright, then. Let's see it. View full article

To be clear, I'm not necessarily saying he's a similar player to Lewis, or nearly as talented. But the slash line he's put up since Lewis went down, and the makeup of Gordon's Statcast profile, are almost exactly what we'd optimistically like to have seen from Lewis.

The two players taken first and second overall in that draft (Brady Aiken and Tyler Kolek) never even reached the majors. So, could be worse!

When Royce Lewis emerged on the big-league scene with a dazzling debut back in May, fans were captivated by the promise of a dynamic former first-round pick making a big impact with his speed, versatility, and power. It turns out we've gotten that since. Just not from the source we expected. Stepping in for an injured Carlos Correa back in May, Royce Lewis was brilliant, slashing .300/.317/.550 in 11 games while filling in at shortstop. Upon Correa's healthy return, the Twins made the logical decision to option Lewis to the minors. This raised a great deal of consternation among fans who wanted to see the electric rookie stick around. At the time, I tweeted out a question: If you wanted Lewis to stay, who was getting bumped from the roster to make room for Correa? I was stunned by the number of responders casually casting their votes for Nick Gordon – even with the understanding he is out of options and would thus be lost from the organization. It's true that Gordon had worn off much of his prospect shine in the eight years since being drafted No. 5 overall. And it's true he was unspectacular as a rookie in 2021, albeit while training in as a utilityman on the fly. But he's also a 26-year-old whose development was derailed by physical issues, and who'd shown some genuinely positive signs in his checkered MLB play. Looking back, calls for waiving Gordon to keep Lewis illustrate the danger of short-sighted, emotional thinking. Had they done so, only to have Lewis suffer a season-ending knee injury, they'd now be without both. And that would really suck because, as it turns out, Gordon has basically turned into exactly the player we wanted Lewis to be. In 34 games since May 18th, the date of Lewis' demotion, Gordon is slashing .289/.330/.505 with five doubles, two triples, and four home runs. He has played all over the field: center, left, second base, even a little shortstop. His speed and range have been highly valuable in the outfield. His undisciplined and aggressive approach at the plate (22 K, 3 BB) is paying off with a bunch of power and consistent productivity. If Lewis had stayed healthy and produced the following Statcast measurables over the past five weeks, I think we'd have all been pretty much over the moon: This is not to say it doesn't suck Lewis is gone. But it's a very good thing Gordon is still here, and to his deep credit, he is helping fill the void of expectations set (perhaps optimistically) for Lewis as a free-swinging, speedy 800-OPS utilityman who makes contributions from all over the field. If he were a little better defensively at short, I'd almost say Gordon is building a case to serve as interim fill-in while Lewis rehabs in early 2023, but I think that's a stretch. Even so, the late-blooming first-rounder and top prospect is finally fortifying his fit with the organization that drafted him. And it's a beautiful thing to see. View full article

No lead was safe over the past week, for the Twins or their opponents. At Cleveland, Minnesota saw its bullpen woes extend in another series of crushing late losses, but the tables were turned in the team's return home against Baltimore. Alternating constantly between maddening and exhilarating, this Twins season – now halfway complete – never fails to stoke the emotions. Last Week's Game Results: Game 75 | MIN 11, CLE 1: Twins Dominate Behind Gray's Greatness Game 76 | CLE 3, MIN 2: Pagán Implosion Wastes Smeltzer Gem Game 77 | MIN 6, CLE 0: Winder Excels in Return as Twins Roll Game 78 | CLE 7, MIN 6: Bullpen Blows 3-Run Lead in 10th Inning Game 79 | CLE 5, MIN 3: No Relief as Bullpen Scraps Another Lead Game 80 | MIN 3, BAL 2: Twins Walk Off on Buxton Home Run Game 81 | MIN 4, BAL 3: Another Walk-off Win Courtesy of Miranda Game 82 | BAL 3, MIN 1: Offense Unable to Wake Up in Sleepy Loss Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 6/27 through Sun, 7/3 *** Record Last Week: 4-4 (Overall: 45-37) Run Differential Last Week: +12 (Overall: +44) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (2.0 GA) NEWS & NOTES Aside from the transition of power atop the pitching coach hierarchy – with Wes Johnson leaving on Thursday for his new job at LSU while Pete Maki stepped in to replace him and Colby Suggs joined the staff as an assistant – the past week was relatively quiet in terms of roster news. Jorge Polanco was activated from his short stint on the injured list, with Mark Contreras heading back to Triple-A. Polanco provided a nice boost in his return, launching a pair of key home runs in victories. Tyler Thornburg, who took one of the bullpen's three losses in Cleveland, was designated for assignment afterward. The Twins swapped in Juan Minaya as they continue to reshuffle deck chairs on a sinking ship. This bullpen needs help and needs it fast. But we'll get to that shortly. HIGHLIGHTS Of late, when the Twins win, they tend to do so by healthy margins, as in their 11-1 and 6-0 blowouts against the Guardians. When they lose, it tends to be by one or two runs, and often in a game where they had a late lead. I'm not saying it's a good thing that the bullpen is coughing up so many winnable affairs, but for the team to so consistently be in that position speaks to how effective the offense and rotation have been. Twins starters consistently excelled over the past week. Sonny Gray led the way with an ace-like effort to open the Cleveland series, tossing seven innings of shutout ball with three hits allowed. He followed with a less impressive outing on Saturday (5 IP, 3 ER) but kept the team within range for a late comeback. Joe Ryan delivered one of his finest performances of the season on Friday night, firing seven innings of one-run ball with seven strikeouts, one walk, and two hits allowed. It was a much-needed rebound after the right-hander struggled in June to the tune of a 5.74 ERA, perhaps struggling to shake off the after-effects of a long bout with COVID. Fresh off his own lengthy spell on the sidelines, Josh Winder was flat-out brilliant in the first half of Tuesday's doubleheader. Making his first big-league appearance in five weeks, Winder blanked the Guardians over six frames, allowing one walk and four hits. He struck out one, inducing just four swinging strikes on 81 pitches. On the one hand, it's good to see he can still shut down a lineup without his best stuff. On the other hand, it'd be nice to see that stuff from earlier in the year resurface, given the shoulder issues. Winder returned to the minors after joining the team as 27th man for the twin billing, but should be back soon. Perhaps as a reliever? Devin Smeltzer capped off a great day of pitching on Tuesday with a gem of his own in the nightcap. The left-hander refreshingly mixed in nine strikeouts over six innings of one-run ball. He was solid again on Sunday, but bit by the long-ball as Baltimore launched three solo homers to tag him with a loss. Two of those home runs came in succession during his third trip through the order in the sixth, illustrating why the Twins have been so reluctant to push their back-end starters despite many fans calling for it. Alas, the rotation definitely did its job last week, allowing 11 earned runs in 46 innings for a 2.15 ERA. The offense also did its job, albeit in spotty fashion. They exploded out of the gates with an 11-run onslaught against Triston McKenzie and the Guardians, keyed by Gary Sánchez's four RBIs. Tuesday's nightcap, a 6-0 win, saw six players notch multiple hits. The following day featured three big home runs from Alex Kirilloff, Gio Urshela and Max Kepler. At home against Baltimore, the lineup went into prolonged spells of total silence, rattling of inning after inning of consecutive outs. But they made up for it on Friday and Saturday with clutch ninth-inning theatrics fueling back-to-back walk-off wins. On Saturday it was José Miranda following up Polanco's game-tying home run with a well-struck RBI single to left. The previous night, Byron Buxton added another signature Target Field moment to his ever-growing catalog. With the Twins trailing 2-1 in the bottom of the ninth, Luis Arraez battled through a fantastic at-bat that concluded with a leadoff single to center. Up came Buxton, who got a slider he could handle and sent it into the bleachers on a half-swing. It must be noted that the reliever who was on the mound while Minnesota manufactured both of these stunning comebacks was closer Jorge López, who's been one of the best in the league. He allowed zero home runs all year before Buck took him deep, and entered the series with a 0.73 ERA. One could make an argument that the past week laid bare the Twins lineup's over-reliance on home runs, and susceptibility to slumping stretches. But at the end of the day, when you're averaging 4.75 runs per game – as the offense did last week – while showing a consistent ability to rise to the occasion with huge timely hits (including Kepler's three-run blast in the 10th on Wednesday, which went to waste), it's tough to complain. The rotation and lineup are equipped to propel this team to the playoffs and perhaps to do some damage once they get there. But making that happen is really a matter of damage control with the other lagging unit on this club. LOWLIGHTS If there have ever been worse eight-day stretches endured by a major-league reliever than the one Emilio Pagán just went through, there can't have been many. His hellish run against Minnesota's top divisional rival of the moment carried over from Minneapolis to Cleveland, where the embattled righty was AGAIN responsible for blowing late-game leads on back-to-back days. This marks the second consecutive week in which Pagán wore the goat label, repeatedly letting (sometimes comfortable) leads turn into losses on his watch. And look, I'm not going to say Pagán is good or that his poor results are undeserved. There is certainly a case to be made for Rocco Baldelli being in the wrong to keep calling on him, although it bears mentioning that... A - Pagán had a 2.45 ERA coming into this stretch. B - He has one of the best strikeout rates in the bullpen and has held opponents to a .214 average. C - Aside from Tyler Duffey, he is the only reliever in this unit with any track record as a standout late-inning MLB arm. Anyway, focusing solely on Pagán misses the point with this bullpen. It misses the point made clear by Duffey going through the same thing earlier in the season (he still rates worse than Pagán in Win Probability Added). The point made clear by Jharel Cotton and Thornburg failing to get it done when given their own chances in key spots. This relief corps is hopelessly undermanned in its current form. Baldelli has two good options and they happen to be two of the most important young pitchers for the bullpen's future outlook, so running them into the ground isn't a viable option. That frequently leaves him choosing between a bunch of known blow-up risks in close games. It's the second straight year in which Baldelli – who managed outstanding bullpens in his first two division-winning seasons – has been sabotaged by his front office on the relief front. In 2021, the Twins parted with several effective members of the 2020 group while making Alex Colomé their central addition. This year they traded All-Star closer Taylor Rogers on the eve of Opening Day for Pagán and a damaged starter. Baldelli could be doing certain things better, to be sure, but this isn't his mess to clean up. It's the front office's. How long will they let their poor bullpen planning continue to sabotage an otherwise continually impressive, likable, winning ballclub? TRENDING STORYLINE That question becomes paramount now that we're in July, with the trade deadline about a month away. Asked about his approach to the fledgling market, Derek Falvey didn't indicate much urgency. “I don’t anticipate anything that active in the short term,” Falvey told reporters. “That’s just common. There are a lot of teams trying to flesh out the market. Are teams in it? Are teams not in it? Have they had the chance to really talk through that? When you’re on the buy side of that, sometimes you have to wait for the sellers to make their final determination about whether they’re ready to go.” Okay, sure. But it's not like trades have never happened in early July. A team like the last-place Orioles, who just left town, has no illusions about their chances of reaching the playoffs, and would surely be open to conversations about one or two of their many outstanding relief arms. (They lead the American League in bullpen fWAR, even after the past weekend's hiccups.) Will the price be higher now than in four weeks? No doubt, but that's the nature of the beast. The front office passed up its opportunity to acquire more proven MLB bullpen talent at a lesser cost during the offseason, so now they'll have to pay the piper. Either that or continue to do a disservice to their manager, starting pitchers, position players, and fans by running out a bullpen that is blatantly unequipped to hold up its end of the bargain. LOOKING AHEAD While we've all been paying close attention to the Guardians and their hot pursuit of the first-place Twins, the White Sox have been ... well, continuing to putter around. With the calendar flipping to July, they've still been unable to able to crack the .500 mark – the last date Chicago had a winning record was May 22nd. Nevertheless, I consider this team a threat. More so than a mediocre Cleveland squad that's been squeaking out late-inning nail biters to stay competitive in the Central. The White Sox have a lot of good talent and are liable to go on a tear at any time if they can shake off the malaise that's characterized much of their season, although they are coming off a sweep in San Francisco. If the White Sox are able to do the same at home against the Twins, they'll move within a game and a half of first place. Make no mistake, this is a big series and a key proving ground for the Twins – especially their bullpen. MONDAY, 7/4: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Dylan Bundy v. RHP Johnny Cueto TUESDAY, 7/5: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Chris Archer v. RHP Michael Kopech WEDNESDAY, 7/6: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Lance Lynn FRIDAY, 7/8: TWINS @ RANGERS – RHP Sonny Gray v. RHP Martin Perez SATURDAY, 7/9: TWINS @ RANGERS – LHP Devin Smeltzer v. RHP Jon Gray SUNDAY, 7/10: TWINS @ RANGERS – RHP Dylan Bundy v. RHP Dane Dunning View full article