Nick Nelson

He currently has a career-high 5.0 BB/9 rate. His career mark is 2.5, he was a 2.6 last year, and he's never finished higher than 3.7. I don't think I need to explain why I find it reasonable to believe this will improve by year's end? Sometimes control/command comes and goes. He had a stretch prior to the Cleveland series where he walked 2 batters in 16 appearances.

The article does specifically address how & why he can improve though. Anyway, bottom line is that when you strike a bunch of guys out, you have more margin for error than a lot of other pitchers.

Pagan leads the team in saves and games finished, both by a wide margin. He's been the nearest thing to a "closer" they've had this season, and he only started pitching in earlier innings after getting his role bumped down semi-recently.

The front office's latest closer acquisition is being vilified much like the last one, and understandably so. But there's a path forward where things end differently this time around. The current iteration of the Minnesota Twins has numerous ties to the Tampa Bay Rays, including their manager and multiple members of the front office ranks. As such, maybe it should come as no surprise that they've targeted a handful of former Rays closers – Alex Colomé, Sergio Romo, Emilio Pagán – through various means, installing them in similar roles here. The Colomé signing, as we know, was a disaster. The Pagán trade is shaping up similarly. But here's the thing: Pagán may still be salvageable, and Colomé's example is a guiding light we can follow to this conclusion. It's easy to focus on the nightmare that was Colomé's April of 2021 – just as it's easy to focus on the nightmare that was Pagán's past couple weeks. But the reality is, even for a below-average reliever, once you remove the ugliest parts of a season, the rest tends to look okay. From May 1st until the end of last year, Colomé was completely fine: 56.1 IP, 3.51 ERA, 15-fo-19 on saves. Pagán had the reverse experience in San Diego – he had a 3.31 ERA on August 31st before completely falling apart in September. This year, Colomé is back to his old self, more or less, with a 2.45 ERA and no home runs allowed through 30 appearances for the Rockies. Pagán's "true self" might not be anything great but it's not nearly as bad as his latest stretch. And unless you think he's cooked, we probably just witnessed the worst of Pagán's 2022 season, meaning the best (or at least better) is yet to come. Here are a few reasons I find this plausible: He's throwing as hard as ever. In terms of raw stuff, there's no reason to think Pagán has lost his edge. He's averaging 95.2 MPH with his fastball (second only to his career-high 95.5 in 2019) and his spin rate on that pitch ranks in the 94th percentile. He has legitimately good pitches. The aforementioned fastball is holding opponents to a .190 average, even while he's struggled to locate it. His splitter has been truly dominant, with a .192 xwOBA and 39% whiff rate. He's throwing it less often than his cutter, which has been obliterated. I'm not going to act like that's some groundbreaking insight because obviously Twins coaches are aware of this data, but there's a real chance that pitch-mix adjustments make a big difference here. He's got the best credentials of anyone in this bullpen. That might change once Jhoan Duran's rookie season is over, but for now, no one in this relief corps can boast superior bona fides to Pagán and his sensational 2019 season in Tampa. He was a lights-out bullpen weapon for a 96-win team, posting a 2.31 ERA and 96-to-13 K/BB ratio over 70 innings. By the time Colomé came around last year, the campaign was already effectively sunk. His solid work in the second half was basically irrelevant. But Pagán still has a chance to make good. His struggles against Cleveland definitely stung, but the Twins still find themselves in first place by a decent margin. To hold on the rest of the way, they'll need all the help they can get from the bullpen, Pagán included. If he can harness the aforementioned strengths and get on a bit of a run – even the kind of luck-aided run that propelled him to a 2.45 ERA through mid-June – he could turn himself from part of the problem to part of the solution. From there? Who knows. While Colomé gave the Twins no real reason to consider exercising his 2022 option, Pagán has one more remaining year of control, and it's part of the reason they were drawn to him. A good second-half run could potentially punch his 2023 ticket. Keep in mind, Minnesota's bullpen has no veteran stability going forward – Taylor Rogers is gone, and Tyler Duffey and Joe Smith are expected to move on after this season. Pagán has been through the wringer, and it'll take a long time to earn back the trust of fans, but the path to redemption is right in front of him. He has what it takes to follow it. "I truly believe that with the way I'm throwing it, when you look up at the end of the year," Pagan said a few days ago, "I'm going to be one of the best relievers in baseball numbers-wise." Alright, then. Let's see it. View full article

To be clear, I'm not necessarily saying he's a similar player to Lewis, or nearly as talented. But the slash line he's put up since Lewis went down, and the makeup of Gordon's Statcast profile, are almost exactly what we'd optimistically like to have seen from Lewis.

The two players taken first and second overall in that draft (Brady Aiken and Tyler Kolek) never even reached the majors. So, could be worse!

When Royce Lewis emerged on the big-league scene with a dazzling debut back in May, fans were captivated by the promise of a dynamic former first-round pick making a big impact with his speed, versatility, and power. It turns out we've gotten that since. Just not from the source we expected. Stepping in for an injured Carlos Correa back in May, Royce Lewis was brilliant, slashing .300/.317/.550 in 11 games while filling in at shortstop. Upon Correa's healthy return, the Twins made the logical decision to option Lewis to the minors. This raised a great deal of consternation among fans who wanted to see the electric rookie stick around. At the time, I tweeted out a question: If you wanted Lewis to stay, who was getting bumped from the roster to make room for Correa? I was stunned by the number of responders casually casting their votes for Nick Gordon – even with the understanding he is out of options and would thus be lost from the organization. It's true that Gordon had worn off much of his prospect shine in the eight years since being drafted No. 5 overall. And it's true he was unspectacular as a rookie in 2021, albeit while training in as a utilityman on the fly. But he's also a 26-year-old whose development was derailed by physical issues, and who'd shown some genuinely positive signs in his checkered MLB play. Looking back, calls for waiving Gordon to keep Lewis illustrate the danger of short-sighted, emotional thinking. Had they done so, only to have Lewis suffer a season-ending knee injury, they'd now be without both. And that would really suck because, as it turns out, Gordon has basically turned into exactly the player we wanted Lewis to be. In 34 games since May 18th, the date of Lewis' demotion, Gordon is slashing .289/.330/.505 with five doubles, two triples, and four home runs. He has played all over the field: center, left, second base, even a little shortstop. His speed and range have been highly valuable in the outfield. His undisciplined and aggressive approach at the plate (22 K, 3 BB) is paying off with a bunch of power and consistent productivity. If Lewis had stayed healthy and produced the following Statcast measurables over the past five weeks, I think we'd have all been pretty much over the moon: This is not to say it doesn't suck Lewis is gone. But it's a very good thing Gordon is still here, and to his deep credit, he is helping fill the void of expectations set (perhaps optimistically) for Lewis as a free-swinging, speedy 800-OPS utilityman who makes contributions from all over the field. If he were a little better defensively at short, I'd almost say Gordon is building a case to serve as interim fill-in while Lewis rehabs in early 2023, but I think that's a stretch. Even so, the late-blooming first-rounder and top prospect is finally fortifying his fit with the organization that drafted him. And it's a beautiful thing to see. View full article

No lead was safe over the past week, for the Twins or their opponents. At Cleveland, Minnesota saw its bullpen woes extend in another series of crushing late losses, but the tables were turned in the team's return home against Baltimore. Alternating constantly between maddening and exhilarating, this Twins season – now halfway complete – never fails to stoke the emotions. Last Week's Game Results: Game 75 | MIN 11, CLE 1: Twins Dominate Behind Gray's Greatness Game 76 | CLE 3, MIN 2: Pagán Implosion Wastes Smeltzer Gem Game 77 | MIN 6, CLE 0: Winder Excels in Return as Twins Roll Game 78 | CLE 7, MIN 6: Bullpen Blows 3-Run Lead in 10th Inning Game 79 | CLE 5, MIN 3: No Relief as Bullpen Scraps Another Lead Game 80 | MIN 3, BAL 2: Twins Walk Off on Buxton Home Run Game 81 | MIN 4, BAL 3: Another Walk-off Win Courtesy of Miranda Game 82 | BAL 3, MIN 1: Offense Unable to Wake Up in Sleepy Loss Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 6/27 through Sun, 7/3 *** Record Last Week: 4-4 (Overall: 45-37) Run Differential Last Week: +12 (Overall: +44) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (2.0 GA) NEWS & NOTES Aside from the transition of power atop the pitching coach hierarchy – with Wes Johnson leaving on Thursday for his new job at LSU while Pete Maki stepped in to replace him and Colby Suggs joined the staff as an assistant – the past week was relatively quiet in terms of roster news. Jorge Polanco was activated from his short stint on the injured list, with Mark Contreras heading back to Triple-A. Polanco provided a nice boost in his return, launching a pair of key home runs in victories. Tyler Thornburg, who took one of the bullpen's three losses in Cleveland, was designated for assignment afterward. The Twins swapped in Juan Minaya as they continue to reshuffle deck chairs on a sinking ship. This bullpen needs help and needs it fast. But we'll get to that shortly. HIGHLIGHTS Of late, when the Twins win, they tend to do so by healthy margins, as in their 11-1 and 6-0 blowouts against the Guardians. When they lose, it tends to be by one or two runs, and often in a game where they had a late lead. I'm not saying it's a good thing that the bullpen is coughing up so many winnable affairs, but for the team to so consistently be in that position speaks to how effective the offense and rotation have been. Twins starters consistently excelled over the past week. Sonny Gray led the way with an ace-like effort to open the Cleveland series, tossing seven innings of shutout ball with three hits allowed. He followed with a less impressive outing on Saturday (5 IP, 3 ER) but kept the team within range for a late comeback. Joe Ryan delivered one of his finest performances of the season on Friday night, firing seven innings of one-run ball with seven strikeouts, one walk, and two hits allowed. It was a much-needed rebound after the right-hander struggled in June to the tune of a 5.74 ERA, perhaps struggling to shake off the after-effects of a long bout with COVID. Fresh off his own lengthy spell on the sidelines, Josh Winder was flat-out brilliant in the first half of Tuesday's doubleheader. Making his first big-league appearance in five weeks, Winder blanked the Guardians over six frames, allowing one walk and four hits. He struck out one, inducing just four swinging strikes on 81 pitches. On the one hand, it's good to see he can still shut down a lineup without his best stuff. On the other hand, it'd be nice to see that stuff from earlier in the year resurface, given the shoulder issues. Winder returned to the minors after joining the team as 27th man for the twin billing, but should be back soon. Perhaps as a reliever? Devin Smeltzer capped off a great day of pitching on Tuesday with a gem of his own in the nightcap. The left-hander refreshingly mixed in nine strikeouts over six innings of one-run ball. He was solid again on Sunday, but bit by the long-ball as Baltimore launched three solo homers to tag him with a loss. Two of those home runs came in succession during his third trip through the order in the sixth, illustrating why the Twins have been so reluctant to push their back-end starters despite many fans calling for it. Alas, the rotation definitely did its job last week, allowing 11 earned runs in 46 innings for a 2.15 ERA. The offense also did its job, albeit in spotty fashion. They exploded out of the gates with an 11-run onslaught against Triston McKenzie and the Guardians, keyed by Gary Sánchez's four RBIs. Tuesday's nightcap, a 6-0 win, saw six players notch multiple hits. The following day featured three big home runs from Alex Kirilloff, Gio Urshela and Max Kepler. At home against Baltimore, the lineup went into prolonged spells of total silence, rattling of inning after inning of consecutive outs. But they made up for it on Friday and Saturday with clutch ninth-inning theatrics fueling back-to-back walk-off wins. On Saturday it was José Miranda following up Polanco's game-tying home run with a well-struck RBI single to left. The previous night, Byron Buxton added another signature Target Field moment to his ever-growing catalog. With the Twins trailing 2-1 in the bottom of the ninth, Luis Arraez battled through a fantastic at-bat that concluded with a leadoff single to center. Up came Buxton, who got a slider he could handle and sent it into the bleachers on a half-swing. It must be noted that the reliever who was on the mound while Minnesota manufactured both of these stunning comebacks was closer Jorge López, who's been one of the best in the league. He allowed zero home runs all year before Buck took him deep, and entered the series with a 0.73 ERA. One could make an argument that the past week laid bare the Twins lineup's over-reliance on home runs, and susceptibility to slumping stretches. But at the end of the day, when you're averaging 4.75 runs per game – as the offense did last week – while showing a consistent ability to rise to the occasion with huge timely hits (including Kepler's three-run blast in the 10th on Wednesday, which went to waste), it's tough to complain. The rotation and lineup are equipped to propel this team to the playoffs and perhaps to do some damage once they get there. But making that happen is really a matter of damage control with the other lagging unit on this club. LOWLIGHTS If there have ever been worse eight-day stretches endured by a major-league reliever than the one Emilio Pagán just went through, there can't have been many. His hellish run against Minnesota's top divisional rival of the moment carried over from Minneapolis to Cleveland, where the embattled righty was AGAIN responsible for blowing late-game leads on back-to-back days. This marks the second consecutive week in which Pagán wore the goat label, repeatedly letting (sometimes comfortable) leads turn into losses on his watch. And look, I'm not going to say Pagán is good or that his poor results are undeserved. There is certainly a case to be made for Rocco Baldelli being in the wrong to keep calling on him, although it bears mentioning that... A - Pagán had a 2.45 ERA coming into this stretch. B - He has one of the best strikeout rates in the bullpen and has held opponents to a .214 average. C - Aside from Tyler Duffey, he is the only reliever in this unit with any track record as a standout late-inning MLB arm. Anyway, focusing solely on Pagán misses the point with this bullpen. It misses the point made clear by Duffey going through the same thing earlier in the season (he still rates worse than Pagán in Win Probability Added). The point made clear by Jharel Cotton and Thornburg failing to get it done when given their own chances in key spots. This relief corps is hopelessly undermanned in its current form. Baldelli has two good options and they happen to be two of the most important young pitchers for the bullpen's future outlook, so running them into the ground isn't a viable option. That frequently leaves him choosing between a bunch of known blow-up risks in close games. It's the second straight year in which Baldelli – who managed outstanding bullpens in his first two division-winning seasons – has been sabotaged by his front office on the relief front. In 2021, the Twins parted with several effective members of the 2020 group while making Alex Colomé their central addition. This year they traded All-Star closer Taylor Rogers on the eve of Opening Day for Pagán and a damaged starter. Baldelli could be doing certain things better, to be sure, but this isn't his mess to clean up. It's the front office's. How long will they let their poor bullpen planning continue to sabotage an otherwise continually impressive, likable, winning ballclub? TRENDING STORYLINE That question becomes paramount now that we're in July, with the trade deadline about a month away. Asked about his approach to the fledgling market, Derek Falvey didn't indicate much urgency. “I don’t anticipate anything that active in the short term,” Falvey told reporters. “That’s just common. There are a lot of teams trying to flesh out the market. Are teams in it? Are teams not in it? Have they had the chance to really talk through that? When you’re on the buy side of that, sometimes you have to wait for the sellers to make their final determination about whether they’re ready to go.” Okay, sure. But it's not like trades have never happened in early July. A team like the last-place Orioles, who just left town, has no illusions about their chances of reaching the playoffs, and would surely be open to conversations about one or two of their many outstanding relief arms. (They lead the American League in bullpen fWAR, even after the past weekend's hiccups.) Will the price be higher now than in four weeks? No doubt, but that's the nature of the beast. The front office passed up its opportunity to acquire more proven MLB bullpen talent at a lesser cost during the offseason, so now they'll have to pay the piper. Either that or continue to do a disservice to their manager, starting pitchers, position players, and fans by running out a bullpen that is blatantly unequipped to hold up its end of the bargain. LOOKING AHEAD While we've all been paying close attention to the Guardians and their hot pursuit of the first-place Twins, the White Sox have been ... well, continuing to putter around. With the calendar flipping to July, they've still been unable to able to crack the .500 mark – the last date Chicago had a winning record was May 22nd. Nevertheless, I consider this team a threat. More so than a mediocre Cleveland squad that's been squeaking out late-inning nail biters to stay competitive in the Central. The White Sox have a lot of good talent and are liable to go on a tear at any time if they can shake off the malaise that's characterized much of their season, although they are coming off a sweep in San Francisco. If the White Sox are able to do the same at home against the Twins, they'll move within a game and a half of first place. Make no mistake, this is a big series and a key proving ground for the Twins – especially their bullpen. MONDAY, 7/4: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Dylan Bundy v. RHP Johnny Cueto TUESDAY, 7/5: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Chris Archer v. RHP Michael Kopech WEDNESDAY, 7/6: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Lance Lynn FRIDAY, 7/8: TWINS @ RANGERS – RHP Sonny Gray v. RHP Martin Perez SATURDAY, 7/9: TWINS @ RANGERS – LHP Devin Smeltzer v. RHP Jon Gray SUNDAY, 7/10: TWINS @ RANGERS – RHP Dylan Bundy v. RHP Dane Dunning View full article

On both the offensive and pitching sides, the Twins were either very good or very bad over the past seven days. There wasn't much in between. The end result was another .500 week that saw Cleveland briefly overtake first place while putting the longtime division leaders on notice. On Sunday night, however, that all took a backseat to some explosive news. Last Week's Game Results: Game 69 | CLE 6, MIN 5: Pagán Slips Up, Twins Blow Late Lead Game 70 | CLE 11, MIN 10: Bullpen Melts Down Again in Crusher Game 71 | MIN 1, CLE 0: Smeltzer and Gordon Stave Off Sweep Game 72 | COL 1, MIN 0: Lineup No Match for Márquez Game 73 | MIN 6, COL 0: Twins Get Payback in Shutout Win Game 74 | MIN 6, COL 3: Buxton Flirts with Cycle, Scores 3 Times Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 6/20 through Sun, 6/26 *** Record Last Week: 3-3 (Overall: 41-33) Run Differential Last Week: +7 (Overall: +32) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (2.0 GA) NEWS & NOTES The week ended with a piece of bombshell news, when we learned that Wes Johnson, Twins pitching coach since the 2019 season, will be leaving the team abruptly next week to join Louisiana State University in the same role. Minnesota's assistant pitching coach Pete Maki will step up to take over Johnson's vacant spot. This is a legitimately stunning turn of events, and one we'll surely learn a lot more about in the coming days. For now, I recommend reading John Bonnes' story above to get the details as we know them. Here we'll get aim to catch up on everything else. Just as it ended, the past week could've hardly started in a more deflating way. The Cleveland Guardians arrived in town for a much-anticipated battle atop the division, and the action at Target Field was as advertised – three one-run games full of fireworks, drama, and big swings. Unfortunately, the Twins bore the brunt of those swings in the first two games, with the bullpen twice blowing late leads as Cleveland stormed into sole possession of first place. Adding to the bad vibes was the revelation that Byron Buxton, who sat out the second game of this key series, had in fact been totally unavailable due to overwhelming soreness in his right knee. He remained sidelined for Thursday and Friday, but the Twins kept him active, insisting that consultations with multiple specialists led them to believe they're doing the right thing. It's hard to disagree after Buxton returned with a bang on Saturday and Sunday, legging out two triples among his four hits. He scored three times in a three-run victory to end the week. The turnaround in Buxton's situation – from grimly depressing to relatively encouraging – personified the course of Minnesota's week as a whole. After the crushing setbacks in those first two Cleveland games, the Twins won three of the next four and by the end of Sunday, they were back atop the division by two games. Before we dive into the good and bad more deeply, let's cover a few roster developments that took place over the past week, starting with a potentially significant one: Since hitting his last home run on June 10th, Trevor Larnach had gone 5-for-35 with zero extra-base hits over the next two weeks, with his potent hitting prowess going completely amiss. On Saturday, we got a clue as to why. Larnach was placed on the injured list with a core injury that had evidently been bothering him for some time. Doesn't sound like it'll be a short absence. He was replaced on the roster by Mark Contreras, who got a start and made a really nice defensive play, although he's still looking for his first major-league hit. On Sunday, Joe Smith landed on the IL with Jovani Moran swapping into the bullpen as his replacement. Given that Smith went through a bit of an acrobatic act in his last appearance, loading the bases with no outs in a one-run game before managing to escape unscathed, it seems fitting his injury was announced as upper trapezius tightness. Josh Winder's rehab assignment came to an end and he was optioned to Triple-A, though he's expected to come up and start a game in Tuesday's upcoming doubleheader. His return will be more than welcomed by this pitching staff. HIGHLIGHTS Alex Kirilloff's return has certainly been welcomed by the Twins offense. As hoped, the sweet-swinging lefty has looked like a totally different player this time around, after working to get straightened out in the minors. He didn't deliver a ton of hits last week, but made them count, driving in seven runs on five singles and two doubles. This lineup just has a different vibe with his bat in it. The continued emergence of Carlos Correa also serves to reinforce the legitimacy of the Twins offense. He had another excellent week, notching hits in every game on the way to a 9-for-25 week that included a double and a pair of homers. Correa has raised his OPS by nearly 100 points over the past month, shaking off a so-so start to deliver on the offensive promise that attracted the Twins to him. Oddly, his defensive numbers are way down, but Correa has clearly been a major asset and he's also back to playing everyday after easing back into action following his time on the COVID list. Ryan Jeffers had an excellent week as he revives his bat from the depths of a brutal slump. In four starts behind the plate, he went 5-for-12 with three doubles. Perhaps most impressively, he drew three walks against only three strikeouts, reversing a trend of nonexistent discipline that played a major role in his lack of production in May and the first half of June. We've been here before, and typically Jeffers' brief hot streaks been followed by extended droughts to more than offset them. If he can buck that pattern and keep making noise at the plate with any kind of consistency, it'll be a huge difference-maker for this offense. In the rotation, Devin Smeltzer and Chris Archer have been big difference-makers – unexpected and much-needed ones at that. Smeltzer played the role of stopper in Wednesday's finale against Cleveland, shutting down a lineup that had its way with Twins pitching for two days. A bounce-back showing from the bullpen, along with a solo homer from Nick Gordon, supported Smeltzer's six shutout innings en route to his fourth win of the season. Meanwhile, Archer's reclamation tour continued on Saturday with five innings of one-hit, shutout ball against Colorado. He struck out five and walked one in the tidy outing, lowering his ERA to 3.14. Through 14 starts, Archer has yet to pitch into the sixth inning, but he's been about as good as one could ask for with that caveat. In five June starts, he's posted a 1.57 ERA while holding opponents to a .169 batting average. This at a time where the rotation has largely been without its best two starters. Now, to be clear, the underlying metrics for Archer remain very ugly. The gap between his shiny ERA this month and his mediocre 4.03 FIP illustrate the degree to which he's outperforming expected outcomes. But ... you've got to think the approach being used with him is playing a big part. Statcast numbers aside, the 33-year-old is more than getting the job done, and most importantly, he's healthy after pitching fewer than 20 innings the past two years. "I'm super grateful how Rocco is handling this whole situation," Archer told reporters. "I couldn't be happier with how everything is going." It's noteworthy that the Twins and Archer have a mutual option at $10 million for next season. These are rarely exercised, but in this case? Sure feels possible if things continue as they've gone. But now Archer will have to try and keep it rolling through a sudden change in pitching coach. LOWLIGHTS Nearly one month ago, on May 30th, I wrote that the Twins bullpen was teetering on the brink of disaster, citing the ominous contrast of a Win Probability Added ranking fourth-best in baseball and a Wins Above Replacement ranking second-worst. Since then, Minnesota's bullpen ranks 20th in WPA, with a negative overall impact. The chickens have come to roost. They were flying around everywhere on Tuesday and Wednesday night, with a pair of very winnable games slipping away in highly frustrating fashion. As painfully easy as it was to see this coming, it's all the more painful to recognize a shortage of clear solutions. Want to shout for dismissal of the offending parties? Simple enough. Confidently identifying better options. Much trickier. Emilio Pagán tops that list of offending parties. He came on in the eighth inning of Tuesday's game against Cleveland, just after Luis Arráez electrified the building with a go-ahead three-run homer. Pagán proceeded to put a runner on and then serve an absolute meatball to Franmil Reyes, who promptly erased a two-run deficit. The following day, Pagán seemingly was on track to rebound, striking out the side in a clean eighth. Rocco Baldelli tried to get another inning out of him, and that didn't go well. Pagán opened the following frame by giving up three straight hits, opening the floodgates on a four-run ninth that turned a three-run lead into a one-run loss. Pagán's fastball has actually been pretty effective, holding opponents to a .190 average, and his splitter has been downright excellent, with a 39.4% whiff rate. But for whatever reason he's turned to the cutter more often (29.3%) than the splitter (22.3%), and that cutter has been horrendous. Opponents are slugging .724 against it, with three homers including the above moonshot by Reyes. Also contributing to the bullpen's woes was Jharel Cotton, who gave up three runs as part of the late-game collapse on Wednesday, coughing up a pair of homers. Tyler Duffey pitched twice in relatively low-leverage situations (down a run on Friday, up three on Sunday) and while he didn't give up any runs he didn't look good, allowing two walks and three hits in three innings. He was bailed out by three double plays. As good as Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax have been – and they were both awesome last week, even if Jax was tagged with both losses against Cleveland – the Twins bullpen cannot sustain with them forced to shoulder so much of the load. You could tell Baldelli was making efforts to protect Jax a bit on Wednesday – he'd thrown 27 pitches the previous night, and 16 two days earlier – by sending Pagán out for another inning. Pagán's failure meant Jax ended up having to pitch again anyway, and the Twins lost anyway. Duran, who pitched 16 total innings last year due to elbow issues, was called upon three times last week, and asked to get more than three outs in two of those. These are important young arms. They need to be protected. Veterans like Pagán and Duffey aren't getting it done and the possible negative impacts go beyond tallies in the loss column. Of course, it would also help if any of the starting pitchers were providing length. Archer's aforementioned workload limitations, much like Buxton's frequent days off, are acceptable as the byproduct of a plan that is delivering its intended results. It's tougher to accept Sonny Gray failing to get an out in the fifth inning on Tuesday, or Joe Ryan losing the groove from his stellar start to the season. Ryan just hasn't looked the same since coming back from a lengthy stint on the COVID list, with 10 earned runs allowed in 15 ⅔ innings over three starts. The poised craftsman who efficiently carved up opposing lineups through mid-May hasn't been present of late as Ryan has labored and missed his spots. On Sunday he needed 102 pitches to get through five innings against Colorado, striking out just one. This rotation needs more from its top two arms. It probably also needs at least one other high-end arm added to that group if championship contention is a true aspiration. TRENDING STORYLINE As we've established, the Twins could really use some impact help in the bullpen. While they're short on potential answers, there are a couple of promising – albeit volatile – possibilities in the pipeline. First, you've got Jorge Alcalá, who is set to restart his rehab assignment next week after pausing due to elbow stiffness. If he can eventually come back throwing like he was in the final two months last year, when he posted a 0.96 ERA and 24-to-3 K/BB ratio over 18 ⅔ innings while throwing pure fire, Alcalá could be a transformative force. But the precarious situation with his arm makes it difficult to get hopes up. Meanwhile, pitching prospect Matt Canterino – himself dealing with elbow issues – is ready to start working back toward game action after a positive visit with a specialist, according to Darren Wolfson. For the most part, there aren't many true game-changing arms within range of the majors occupying the Twins system, unless you're especially optimistic about someone like Yennier Cano or Moran. Alcalá and Canterino are a different story. They have what it takes to dominate in the late innings. Although neither is close to entering the big-league bullpen fold at this moment, it's definitely a relief to hear both are again taking steps in the right direction after some scary hiccups. LOOKING AHEAD If the Twins are feeling sour about the way things went down at Target Field against the Guardians last week, they'll have a fast chance to settle the score as they travel of Cleveland for a five-game series against their (present) closest challenger in the division. These jam-packed stretches of the schedule, made necessary by the delayed start to the season, are challenging to endure – especially when you're traveling. The last time Minnesota experienced such a gauntlet, they dropped four of five in Detroit against the Tigers. Needless to say, a similar result in Cleveland would hurt. The follow-up series back home against Baltimore would ordinarily seem like a nice respite, but the Orioles have actually been playing pretty good ball of late. Eight games and a pitching coach transition (set to take place after the Cleveland series) lie ahead in the next seven days. Buckle up. MONDAY, 6/27: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Sonny Gray v. RHP Triston McKenzie TUESDAY, 6/28 (G1): TWINS @ GUARDIANS – LHP Devin Smeltzer v. RHP Zach Plesac TUESDAY, 6/28 (G2): TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Josh Winder v. TBD WEDNESDAY, 6/29: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Dylan Bundy v. RHP Cal Quantrill THURSDAY, 6/30: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Chris Archer v. RHP Shane Bieber FRIDAY, 7/1: ORIOLES @ TWINS – RHP Spenser Watkins v. RHP Joe Ryan SATURDAY, 7/2: ORIOLES @ TWINS – RHP Jordan Lyles v. RHP Sonny Gray SUNDAY, 7/3: ORIOLES @ TWINS – RHP Tyler Wells v. LHP Devin Smeltzer View full article

Every step of the way, this Minnesota Twins front office has believed in Ryan Jeffers more than basically anyone outside of it. At times, their faith has been rewarded. But with Jeffers sinking into quicksand during his third major-league season, it's valid to question whether their extreme confidence is misplaced, and what that would mean for the franchise. Jeffers was widely considered a reach when the Twins selected him 59th overall in 2018 – the second draft overseen by Derek Falvey and Thad Levine. Per Puckett's Pond, Baseball America's big board had Jeffers ranked 295th among draft prospects and MLB.com's 200-player list didn't have him ranked. Although the North Carolina native had posted monster numbers during his collegiate career at UNC, he had a rep as a bat-first catcher without the receiving chops to stick behind the plate, negating his defensive premium. The Twins saw it differently. They overdrafted Jeffers to ensure he wouldn't escape their grasp. They moved him aggressively through the minors, even as he failed to post truly extraordinary numbers. In the COVID season, Minnesota called Jeffers up from the alternate site, despite his having played only 24 total games above Double-A to that point. To his credit, Jeffers seized the opportunity and made a great impression. While filling in the very big shoes of an injured Mitch Garver, the 23-year-old delivered a positive impact on both sides, posting a 119 OPS+ while flashing his vaunted framing skills on the big stage. Twins Daily named him Twins rookie of the year. The 2021 season was much more of a struggle for Jeffers. Pitchers began to exploit his lack of discipline at the plate. He batted .199 with a .270 OBP, and five times as many strikeouts as walks. Base runners increasingly exploited his inability to control the run game, stealing 46 bases on 59 attempts. Despite his sluggish sophomore campaign, the front office doubled down on Jeffers during the offseason, trading away two years of Mitch Garver and replacing him with Gary Sánchez in a walk year. The message was clear: Jeffers is our future behind the plate. Sure enough, the Twins ran Jeffers hard early on. He started every game in the opening series, catching the first two and playing DH in the third. In fact, Jeffers got three starts at designated hitter in the team's first dozen games, even with Minnesota carrying only two catchers. It's clear they expected Jeffers to hit. He hasn't. Jeffers opened the season in a brutal 4-for-27 skid, with zero extra-base hits. He then had a brief surge where he launched three home runs and four doubles in an eight-game span. Since then: 11-for-78 (.151) with one double, one home run, and 25 strikeouts in 26 games. Overall, Jeffers is slashing .174/.264/.303 – only six qualified big-leaguers have a worse OPS. He's consistently been an automatic out, cratering rallies and sapping an otherwise productive lineup. And what's more: Jeffers isn't exactly tearing it up on the defensive side to offset his hitting woes. He still rates well as a pitch framer, and it's clear he is stealing pitchers an extra strike here and there. (Although I'll note: notorious butcher backstop Gary Sánchez is also checking in above-average this year.) But Jeffers is being exposed for his throwing inadequacies like never before. For the season, Jeffers has successfully stopped only three of 28 aspiring base stealers. On Sunday, the Rays went borderline Matthew LeCroy on the bit, running at will as the Twins catcher helplessly cast tardy throws to second and third. Granted, Jeffers has often not gotten help from pitchers when it comes to stopping runners – Cole Sands on Sunday being a prime example – but it's a pretty clear weakness in his game. And again: it's not an unexpected one. His deficiencies in quickness and footwork have been noted in scouting reports over the years. They're part of why draft analysts doubted his future behind the plate. For Twins fans, it's now impossible not to doubt Jeffers' future behind the plate for the Twins. Framing skills aside, he's a 25-year-old with more than 500 plate appearances in the big leagues and a .655 OPS to show for it. The requisite signs of improvement aren't there. Jeffers looks lost and it's not inconceivable he could find himself ticketed for a Triple-A reset, should this trend persist. If Jeffers can't change course and resuscitate his wayward game, what does that mean for the future of the team at catcher? Garver is gone, as is Ben Rortvedt. The system is sparse on catching talent, which was noted in our preseason prospect rankings even before that depth was wiped out. This front office might be confident to the point some would describe as hubris, but they're not overly sentimental. At some point, they'll come to terms with the reality of Jeffers if it becomes undeniable. What happens then? In short, the Twins will either need to find a free agent (the upcoming market is ... not great) or a trade partner. OR ... they'll need to convince Gary Sánchez to stick around. It's not the most exciting proposition given his track record, and even in his resurgent rebound this year he's been pretty average. Still probably good enough to have some leverage in a weak catching market this offseason. So far, the team's unwavering faith in Jeffers has not paid off. But there's still time for him to prove them right. They could sure use it. View full article

It was a week of thrilling highs and gut-wrenching lows for the Minnesota Twins, who returned to Target Field against some very tough competition. They scored, and gave up, a whole bunch of runs, ultimately making a big statement about their viability as contenders in the American League. Let's sort it out. Last Week's Game Results: Game 56 | NYY 10, MIN 4: Duffey Clobbered, Yankees Roll Game 57 | MIN 8, NYY 1: Twins Offense Blows Up in Rout Game 58 | NYY 10, MIN 7: Pitchers Waste 5-Homer Night Game 59 | MIN 9, TB 4: Buxton and Twins Ambush Rays Game 60 | MIN 6, TB 5: Arraez Grand Slam Keys Victory Game 61 | TB 6, MIN 0: Lineups Cools Off, Can't Seal Sweep Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 6/6 through Sun, 6/12 *** Record Last Week: 3-3 (Overall: 35-27) Run Differential Last Week: -2 (Overall: +25) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (3.0 GA) NEWS & NOTES Let's get the unbelievably bad news out of the way first. A second MRI on Royce Lewis' knee, with his swelling reduced, revealed a partially torn ACL. This means he'll once again need to undergo reconstructive surgery on the same ligament they just repaired last year. He's expected to be sidelined for another 12 months. It's an excruciatingly crushing blow for one of the most likable players in the organization and one of the most talented prospects in the game. Somehow Lewis managed to maintain an optimistic and unflappable front in the face of this unthinkable setback to his career. Not only does the Lewis news eliminate a key potential difference-maker from the rest of this season's picture, but it also throws a big wrench into the team's future plans. With Carlos Correa expected to opt-out after this year, Lewis was lined up to take over as shortstop. Now, he could be out into June of 2022 and at that point he'll be coming back from two straight major knee surgeries. We'll cross that bride when we get there, I guess. In happier news, the Twins did get Correa back from COVID IL. He had an excellent week, launching two homers and a double among eight hits in four games. It sounds like he's still dealing with some fatigue, but showing zero signs. Correa's successful return meant Jermaine Palacios headed back to Triple-A after making a great impression with his glove. Chi Chi Gonzalez was added to the 40-man roster with Lewis going on the 60-day IL. He started Saturday and was okay. At week's end Gonzalez was DFA'ed to make room for reliever call-up Tyler Thornburg, who made a solid debut on Sunday. Cole Sands was recalled for starts against both New York and Tampa, struggling against both. He's likely to be optioned on Monday. Juan Minaya was swapped off the 40-man roster in favor of Jharel Cotton, who's earned a bigger shot. Kyle Garlick landed on the IL with a hamstring injury, though it sounds like he won't be out long. HIGHLIGHTS The Twins offense proved last week beyond a shadow of a doubt that it belongs in the conversation as one of the best in baseball. Day in and day out, they showed up and flat-out raked, despite facing some genuinely excellent pitching all week long. Going against three straight All Star-caliber starters for the Yankees, and then taking on a Rays staff full of quality arms, the bats never went quiet – at least until the final game of the homestand. All told, even with Sunday's shutout, the Twins piled up 34 runs on 61 hits and 12 homers in six games, including back-to-back-to-back bombs off Gerrit Cole and a walloping of the league's ERA leader (at the time), Nestor Cortes. The Twins currently find themselves third in the AL in runs scored and second in OPS. No one can say their bats are getting fat off weak competition. While Correa's physical return made a big impact, it was Byron Buxton's spiritual return that led the way in this offensive barrage. Buck simply hadn't been himself for the better part of a month, leading some schmo to suggest that an IL stint could be in order to help him heal up. But soon after, he flipped the switch and turned right back into the guy who terrorized pitchers in April. Buxton showed signs of awakening last weekend in Toronto, when he homered and doubled in Saturday's win. Then, he went 1-for-7 with five strikeouts in his next two games and you wondered if he was sinking right back into the funk. No sir. Buxton proceeded to collect six hits in 13 at-bats over the next three games, five of them home runs. Buxton is now hilariously on pace to hit roughly 45 home runs in 115 games this season. Luis Arraez continues to be one of the most consistent and effective offensive forces in baseball, and he's even begun sprinkling in some power. His long ball against Cole opened the triple-whammy on Thursday, and Arraez delivered a game-breaking grand slam against Tampa on Saturday. After wrapping an 8-for-22 week, Arraez is leading the world in batting average and on-base percentage – neither by a slim margin. Although his lack of defensive impact takes a major toll on his overall value from an analytical standpoint, I do think that if he keeps this up (especially the bursts of power), the narrative around Arraez could propel him into the MVP conversation, and it wouldn't be totally unwarranted. Other big performances in a statement week for the Twins offense: Jorge Polanco opened up with a four-hit performance against New York and finished 9-for-21 with a homer and pair of doubles. After an extended cold spell that dragged his OPS down into the mid-600s, Polanco seems to be back in the groove. José Miranda continues to come into his own at the plate. (In the field and bases, not so much.) He had three hits and three RBIs in Wednesday's lopsided win over the Yankees, and added another double as the #3 hitter on Saturday. (Though he got thrown out trying to stretch it to three. Like I said.) Trevor Larnach managed only four hits in 19 at-bats, but he did absolutely CLOBBER a home run off Cole: LOWLIGHTS As good as the hitting was for the Twins last week, the pitching was almost equally bad. That's gonna happen to some extent when you're throwing the likes of Sands and Gonzalez at very good offenses, but it wasn't just the temporary plugs contributing to these woes. Tyler Duffey bombed again on Tuesday night, turning a close deficit into a blowout by surrendering a back-breaking home run to Anthony Rizzo. He gave up another homer and double in garbage time on Sunday. Dylan Bundy – whose fastball velocity has now incredibly slipped below that of soft-tossing lefty Devin Smeltzer – coughed up four runs in four innings on Thursday, wasting a big early cushion before the bullpen combined to allow six runs in a painful loss that slipped away. This included an uncharacteristic implosion from Jhoan Duran, who was charged with two runs on four hits while recording only one out. Jovani Moran's control issues reared their head in the same outing, as he issued three walks in 1 ⅔ innings and threw just half of his 36 pitches for strikes. Joe Smith continued hurdling back to Earth with three runs allowed on four hits in his two innings. He's allowed at least one run in five of his past eight appearances after allowing zero in his first 16. Minaya punched his ticket off the 40-man roster with a laborious and ugly outing against New York. While both the starters and relievers have grown rather unreliable, it's easy to see a path to improvement in the rotation with its best two starters, Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan, both slated to return in the coming week. The bullpen, however, is a much more worrisome animal. Impact reinforcements are not close and the Twins have already burned through a whole bunch of their internal options. Jorge Alcalá had his rehab stint put on pause last week due to renewed elbow stiffness. Cody Stashak is out of the year due to labrum surgery. Matt Canterino – the highest-upside arm in the system currently – went on IL with a forearm issue that's been dubbed "minor." (We'll see. Canterino was limited to 23 innings last year by elbow problems.) The trade deadline is still a month and a half away, but you wonder if the front office may be compelled to spring into action early on this increasingly urgent need. TRENDING STORYLINE The Twins aren't exactly in dire need of offensive help at the moment, but it's still getting harder and harder to justify leaving Alex Kirilloff and his scorching hot bat in the minors. The 24-year-old has done everything he can at St. Paul to prove that his wrist is no longer impeding him. Saturday was just the latest example – Kirilloff launched a pair of home runs to boost his slash line at Triple-A to .350/.453/.607, including .405/.488/1.000 in the month of June. Power was the last remaining piece that we've been waiting on for Kirilloff, who's consistently displayed a strong plate approach ever since being sent down. His 1.000 slugging percentage this month is a pretty good indicator that we can check off that final box. At a glance it might seem tricky to find a fit for Kirilloff in a mostly-healthy Twins lineup, but in reality it won't be that hard. As great as Arraez has been offensively, his defense at first leaves much to be desired and this was evident on a few occasions last week. Plugging in Kirilloff at first and moving Arraez to DH as a regular setup against righties will improve the Twins defense – a recurring sore spot amid the pitching struggles last year – and make their lineup even more imposing. The question is how to make room for Kirilloff on the active roster. No one in the current picture looks like a clear candidate to go, unless the Twins decide to cut down to 13 pitchers (something they'll be forced to do in a week anyway). Keep in mind the team will also need to find a spot for Garlick soon. Nick Gordon came out of Saturday's game with a hamstring injury, and placing him on the IL might have helped alleviate the logjam, but he entered Sunday's game as a sub, negating that possibility. LOOKING AHEAD The schedule relents in the week to come, as the Twins hit the road to take on a pair of fourth-place teams. With Gray and Ryan expected to return in the "TBD" spots, Minnesota is poised for successful stretch if the bats can stay hot. Of note: The Twins are lined up to face three straight left-handers starting on Wednesday. Garlick is eligible to come off the injured list on Tuesday. MONDAY, 6/13: TWINS @ MARINERS – RHP Chris Archer v. RHP Chris Flexen TUESDAY, 6/14: TWINS @ MARINERS – TBD v. RHP Logan Gilbert WEDNESDAY, 6/15: TWINS @ MARINERS – TBD v. LHP Marco Gonzales FRIDAY, 6/17: TWINS @ DIAMONDBACKS – RHP Dylan Bundy v. LHP Madison Bumgarner SATURDAY, 6/18: TWINS @ DIAMONDBACKS – LHP Devin Smeltzer v. LHP Kyle Nelson SUNDAY, 6/19: TWINS @ DIAMONDBACKS – RHP Chris Archer v. RHP Merrill Kelly View full article

Yeah. That's definitely something I speculated. Honest question: did you actually read this article?

Buxton ranks 170 out of 178 MLB players in wOBA over the past month, after ranking 8th out of all MLB hitters in the first month, and he's been openly playing through physical issues, but we're gonna act like this is all some overreaction to a standard baseball slump, huh? Okay. It's clearly not a "minor injury" if it's still affecting him now and the team implies it'll take an entire offseason to fully heal. What a remark.

He's literally had one good offensive game in a month and I'm the one cherrypicking. Come on now.

I think you are overestimating the certainty of medical science. And also we're talking about degrees here. not absolutes Maybe it won't "resolve itself" but will it get better? How could it not?

What is this idea of him "coming around at the plate" based on? One good game on Friday night? Outside of that he's got five singles and one double in 30 at-bats since snapping the 0-fer streak, and zero multi-hit games in the past month.

How would we know until giving it a try? Playing regularly doesn't seem to be helping. It stands to reason that two weeks off of his legs, getting steady treatment, will be helpful to some extent. Only one way to find out how much.