Nick Nelson

Dear journal, It's been 49 days since darkness fell upon the world of baseball. Rekindled negotiations between the league and MLBPA last week went nowhere as expected. We're back in a holding pattern with February fast approaching. This sucks. When I wrote to you last I expressed minimal hope for the bargaining session that was about to take place. It turns out my total lack of faith was warranted. Passan's assessment above is being generous. Spring training starting on time is not "in peril," it's out the window. The question now is how far it'll be pushed back, and whether the delays will spill over to the regular season. Just writing that last sentence fills me with dread. This is all so dumb. The game of baseball is incredibly profitable and fans are hungry for it. Reasonable compromises are surely available. Yet there is no evident sense of urgency. The league waited six weeks before making a formal proposal on core economics. The players rejected it, and a week later, are said to be "preparing a response to MLB’s recent proposal to be delivered within days." We're fast closing in on February. "At present, the 'talks' between the parties still amount to theater," writes Ken Rosenthal at The Athletic, "a Kabuki dance of proposals and counter-proposals that neither side is taking seriously." I feel no confidence or optimism. Why would I? There hasn't been one signal to justify a positive attitude toward this process. It sucks. To reference a 20-year-old quote in Rosenthal's article from Bud Selig (the former commissioner who looks remarkably competent in comparison to his successor): "If you remove hope and faith from the mind of a fan, you destroy the fabric of the sport.” View full article

Correct. Which is why Kepler dropped from #3 last year to #9 this year and is ranked behind Polanco, Buxton, and Garver...

Twins leaders in fWAR since 2018: 1. Jorge Polanco (10.1) 2. Max Kepler (10.0) 3. Nelson Cruz (8.0) 4. Byron Buxton (7.8) 5. Mitch Garver (6.3)

Correction: he's had 5 solid major-league seasons and 1 great major-league season. I actually think reality here is the opposite: Twins fans have a lower opinion of Kepler than the rest of the league, and they generally underrate his trade value. That contract, for a 28-year-old whose floor is basically "quality regular," is quite appealing.

Over the past couple of weeks, across four installments, we ranked the top 20 players in the Twins organization based on their value toward winning a championship. Today we'll recap that list in search of trends and takeaways, with an eye on assessing how well the franchise is positioned to achieve that ultimate goal with its current collection of assets. The intent of this list was to answer a question: Which current players in the organization are most indispensable to fulfilling the vision of building a champion? We ranked current MLB players and prospects based on factors like production, age, upside, pedigree, health, contract, and positional scarcity. Here's how the top 20 shakes out for 2022 (click on the player's name to find his writeup): 20. Matt Canterino, RHP 19. Josh Winder, RHP 18. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP 17. Gilberto Celestino, CF 16. Chase Petty, RHP 15. Jose Miranda, 2B/3B 14. Jhoan Duran, RHP 13. Jordan Balazovic, RHP 12. Trevor Larnach, OF 11. Luis Arraez, UTIL 10. Ryan Jeffers, C 9. Max Kepler, RF 8. Mitch Garver, C 7. Joe Ryan, RHP 6. Bailey Ober, RHP 5. Austin Martin, OF 4. Royce Lewis, SS 3. Alex Kirilloff, 1B/OF 2. Jorge Polanco, 2B 1. Byron Buxton, CF If we're treating Kirilloff as an outfielder and Arraez as an infielder, that breaks down to: 8 pitchers 6 outfielders 4 infielders 2 catchers It's not a bad balance, roughly reflecting the proportions of positions on an MLB roster. However, the Twins do have a few clear areas of weakness and scarcity, as well as some areas of abundance that point to possible trade opportunities. We'll explore these along with other noteworthy observations and takeaways as we break down the list, taking stock of the Twins organization as a whole. Return of the King When I first took a shot at compiling this list, ahead of the 2018 season, Byron Buxton was at the top. At that time he was 24 years old, coming off a breakout season in which he was (mostly) healthy, a fringe MVP contender, and recipient of a Platinum Glove. It all seemed to be coming together. If only we knew. Recurring injuries and progressively diminishing team control have kept Buxton's stock in check since then, to the point where he nearly slipped out of the top 10 in last year's rankings. But all that's transpired since has vaulted him back to the #1 spot at last. While still dealing with his share of injuries in 2021, Buxton proved more than ever he's a rare difference-maker, stacking up against any player in franchise history on a per-rate basis. And after the season, Minnesota opportunistically locked him up. The uniquely team-friendly nature of Buxton's contract extension, which takes him through the entirety of his remaining prime, makes him one of the most valuable assets in all of baseball. The Fall of Maeda In last year's rankings, Kenta Maeda ranked #1. He was an accomplished veteran starter coming off a Cy Young runner-up season, with a highly favorable contract to boot. Maeda was the centerpiece around which the rotation would be built. Maeda didn't appear in this year's rankings. His dramatic drop-off encompasses the rotation's downfall as a whole. The 2021 season really couldn't have done much more to tank Maeda's value: he largely struggled through 21 starts, then underwent elbow surgery late in the season. By the time he returns in 2023, he'll be 35 and in his walk year. His team-friendly contract, with only $3M in guaranteed base salary, means Maeda's absence in 2022 won't hurt the team too much resource-wise, which was a big part of his value. But the Twins were counting on his arm for the coming season, and now they'll be without it, as well as that of José Berríos (#4 in last year's rankings). In a nutshell, this tees up the immense challenge of building a new starting rotation – from two starting pitchers among the top five assets to zero. On the bright side, Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan (#6 and #7 this year) are both under control for the next six years, so if either or both can affirm their early promise, they are poised to become premium commodities. Notably, neither one cost this front office very much to acquire. Power and Parity in the Pitching Pipeline This franchise's success over the next 3-4 years will be heavily dependent on the fruits of a pitching pipeline this front office has been cultivating since it arrived. The disruption of a pandemic stalled progress, but the Twins currently have a huge assortment of high-upside arms nearing MLB-readiness. Those arms are all grouped together around the back end of this top 20 list. The last three players we ranked – Simeon Woods Richardson, Josh Winder, Matt Canterino – are all part of this group, and if we extended the list to 30 or 40, several more would show up: Cole Sands, Blayne Enlow, Louie Varland, Chris Vallimont, Drew Strotman. Maybe even Randy Dobnak and Griffin Jax. By passing up the high end of free agent pitching, the front office has essentially made clear that it's staking itself to this group. If next year's rankings are flush with pitchers from it, that'll be a good sign. If not, then that'll be the most damning strike against this regime yet. Short on Shortstops Around the time I first put these rankings together in 2018, people were wondering if the Twins were filling their system with *too many* shortstops. They'd taken Royce Lewis first overall in the previous draft, adding him to a system that already included Jorge Polanco, Nick Gordon, and Wander Javier (all of whom appeared in that inaugural top 20 ranking). What's happened since shows why it's so damn hard to develop shortstops (and why the great ones are such tremendous commodities). Javier flamed out. Polanco and Gordon have moved to different positions. Lewis is still tenuously considered a shortstop, but the jury is out. Outside of him, the cupboard is now bare. With Andrelton Simmons gone, there's no current occupant at the MLB level, though the Twins will presumably sign someone to a short-term deal. In the system, Lewis sorta stands alone as a high-end prospect with legitimate major-league shortstop potential. Lacking Left-handers One commonality among all eight pitchers to appear on this list – and the next handful of honorable mentions – is that they're all right-handers. The most glaring scarcity in this system, without question, is left-handed pitchers. Were we to extend the list, who would be the top-ranked lefty pitcher? It's an interesting question. Without thinking too deeply about it, it's probably a toss-up between their three top bullpen lefties: Taylor Rogers, Caleb Thielbar and Jovani Moran. But they're all relievers with flaws and limited upside. How much does this particular scarcity matter? Hard to say. The Twins aren't short on high-quality arms in their system, but the most valuable and projectable ones are virtually all right-handers. I wonder to what extent this was intentional, and to what extent the team might try to course-correct and add balance going forward. Top Trade Candidates One of the most pertinent insights to emerge through this exercise is a clear understanding of where the logjams exist and which areas of strength the Twins are most likely to trade from. That analysis feels especially meaningful in this offseason, because the front office essentially has no choice but to leverage the trade market in order to acquire impact talent, with free agency now picked at key positions. For me, this is a pretty simple equation: Which players rank lower on this Twins-specific list than they would in other organizations? From this angle, five names stand out (listed roughly in order of what they'd bring back): Austin Martin Max Kepler Luis Arraez Jose Miranda Gilberto Celestino One could theoretically add Mitch Garver or Ryan Jeffers to this list, although I'm not sure I have enough confidence in either one to feel good about trading the other. Kepler and Celestino are both made somewhat more expandable by the Buxton extension, but the most intriguing redundancy from my view is with Martin, Arraez, and Miranda. With Buxton now entrenched in center, Martin's most likely destinations seem to be second, third, or left. The same can basically said for Arraez and Miranda (though I suspect left field is considered much less desirable for both). Second and third are currently occupied by Jorge Polanco and Josh Donaldson, who are under guaranteed contract for two more years. Trading Donaldson would alleviate this logjam in a big way, but the team's opportunities to do so are much more limited. Martin, Arraez and Miranda are all coveted young players with appealing contract situations. If the Twins want to bring in frontline pitching via trade once the lockdown ends, this would appear to be the path. What strikes you as you review this evaluation of players in the Twins system? Are you feeling good about the state of the franchise? Bad? Share your thoughts in the comments below, and feel free to catch up on past lists for a trip down memory lane: Top 20 Twins Assets: 2018 Top 20 Twins Assets: 2019 Top 20 Twins Assets: 2020 Top 20 Twins Assets: 2021 MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Order the Offseason Handbook — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

The international signing period officially opens today. The Minnesota Twins have agreed to terms with three players ranked among the top 40 talents in this year's class, and now we know the dollar totals of their agreements. Read on to learn more about Yasser Mercedes, Yilber Herrera, and Bryan Acuña. The international market has been a key source of talent in the Twins system, yielding not only big-league players like Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, and Miguel Sanó, but also several of their current most intriguing prospects. They'll be adding to that pool when the following expected signings become official. The Twins have a $5,721,500 bonus pool for international signings this year and it appears this is how they'll be divvying up a large chunk of it. Yasser Mercedes, OF – Dominican Republic ($1.7 million) DOB: 11/16/2004 (17 years old) 6'3", 180 lbs | Bats R, Throws R Ranked #17 by MLB Pipeline Read our profile on Mercedes The headliner of this year's Twins international class is a big lean outfielder with an impressive and balanced skill set. Speed and defense are considered his biggest strengths currently, leading many to believe he can stick in center field. According to MLB Pipeline, "Mercedes has some of the best tools in this year’s class, but it’s his ability to use those tools in games that’s helped him become one of the most intriguing prospects on the international market." Yilber Herrera, SS – Dominican Republic ($700K) DOB: 1/15/2005 (17 years old) 6'0", 155 lbs | B: S, T: R Ranked #35 by MLB Pipeline Read our profile on Herrera "Think of a young Jorge Polanco. That’s the best way to describe the athletic Herrera." So claims MLB Pipeline's writeup on this switch-hitting shortstop, and this description comes as music to the ears of Twins fans. The Venezuelan infielder is currently known as more of a contact hitter with quick hands, but there is hope he'll start to develop substantial power as he grows into his frame. That's basically the path Polanco took on his way to becoming one of the best slugging middle infielders in the majors. Bryan Acuña , SS – Venezuela ($650K) DOB: 8/11/2005 (16 years old) 5'11", 155 lbs | B: R, T: R Ranked #39 by MLB Pipeline Read our profile on Acuña You probably recognize the last name. Yes, Bryan is the younger brother of Braves superstar Ronald Acuña Jr. He's been on the international scouting radar for sometime, and while he's not viewed as one of the premier talents in this class, it bears noting that his older brother signed with Atlanta for a mere $100K back in 2014. He's currently listed as a shortstop, but Acuña is unlikely to stick there. His bat is expected to be his ticket to advancement; he already has a good feel for hitting and the hope is that he'll add power he muscles up. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Order the Offseason Handbook — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

Thank you! You and me both.

You forgot to include the link! Great read, very in-depth and thorough:

Dear journal, It's been 42 days since darkness fell upon the world of baseball. There's still been no movement toward agreeing on a new deal and reviving the offseason, but at least we have small signs of something resembling progress. We've reached mid-January and, under normal circumstances, the spring training report date for pitchers and catchers would be about one month away. However, the idea of spring camps firing up on time feels like a pipe dream at this point. MLB and its players association still have yet to engage in serious discussions. On the bright side, that is finally about to change. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported earlier this week that the two sides plan to convene and hold a bargaining session on Thursday for the first time in six weeks. I wish I could say I was confident this meeting would result in rapid action, but I'm not. We all lived through the agony of following "negotiations" during the COVID shutdown in 2020, with proposals from each side repeatedly being scoffed at by the other. I suspect we'll see a similar series of rebuffs in the weeks ahead, with the urgency and stakes growing higher as spring approaches and scores of free agents remain in limbo. I've been using the downtime to fully take stock of the Twins organization as it currently stands, ponder the fallout of trade scenarios, and reminisce on Minnesota teams past. None of these activities serve as fitting substitutes for actual baseball news and the palpable excitement of spring training's approach but ... you work with what you've got. To that end, I've been incredibly impressed by the inventiveness of our Twins Daily writing community. I come here every day and find multiple new articles covering interesting topics despite the total lack of anything happening. It's quite amazing. I've read great stories about potential international signings, and Dereck Rodriguez returning to the Twins, and Jim Kaat's number retirement, and 2022 sleepers to watch, and a mother's perspective on two identical twins who happen to be start relievers, and much more. These are all from the past few days. The passion of fellow Twins fans is helping to keep my impassioned disgust with Rob Manfred and the league at bay, for now. When I helped launch Twins Daily a decade ago (10th anniversary coming up next month!), we envisioned it as exactly this: a refuge for lovers of baseball, even when baseball doesn't love us back. For me, it's been that and more. And it's honestly making a significant difference in my morale as this stupid lockout drags on. There's a good chance I'd have checked out on baseball – at least for the time being – amidst all this stupidity, if not for the writers, readers, and audience here at TD. I'd like to let them know how much I appreciate 'em. But for now I can only tell it to you, dear journal, here in this extremely private, anonymous, discreet setting. Anyway, seeya next week. Hopefully I'll bring news of any substance. I'm not counting on it. View full article

That's not exactly the case -- it's meant to be a mixture of short-term and long-term impact, which is why someone like Chase Petty made the list. But unfortunately the asset value of Maeda (who ranked #1 last year) was really tanked by his injury last year. When he comes back he'll be 35 with one remaining year of control. Not really a guy you can plan around much anymore. This will be discussed a bit more in the wrap-up post next Monday.

Completing our rankings of the most valuable player assets in the Minnesota Twins organization, we share our picks for one through five. This list attempts to answer a simple question: Which 20 players and prospects are most indispensable in the team's quest to win a championship? Before getting started, you can get up to speed on the ground rules, which were covered in the first installment. Here are the players we've ranked so far: 20. Matt Canterino, RHP 19. Josh Winder, RHP 18. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP 17. Gilberto Celestino, CF 16. Chase Petty, RHP 15. Jose Miranda, 2B/3B 14. Jhoan Duran, RHP 13. Jordan Balazovic, RHP 12. Trevor Larnach, OF 11. Luis Arraez, UTIL 10. Ryan Jeffers, C 9. Max Kepler, RF 8. Mitch Garver, C 7. Joe Ryan, RHP 6. Bailey Ober, RHP From there, we round it out with the top five. If you haven't yet, be sure to check out the writeups on #6 through #20: Top 20 Twins Assets of 2022: 16-20 Top 20 Twins Assets of 2022: 11-15 Top 20 Twins Assets of 2022: 6-10 Top 20 Twins Assets of 2022: 1 through 5 5. Austin Martin, OF 2021 Ranking: NR Since I started putting these rankings together after the 2017 season, here's where José Berríos has ranked: #3, #2, #3, #4. Ideally you keep an asset like that, but as it became clear the Twins were not going to be able to extend their two-time All-Star, they opted for the next-best thing: recouping value. By taking advantage of deadline urgency, as well as Berríos' additional year of team control, the Twins were able to extract a premium talent package from Toronto, including Simeon Woods Richardson (#18 on this list) but headlined by Austin Martin. The 22-year-old was one year removed from being the #5 overall draft pick, and recipient of a $7M signing bonus from Toronto. He was unanimously ranked as a Top 25 prospect in the game ahead of 2021, and appeared in the Futures Game in July. An athletic on-base machine who is nearly ready for The Show, Martin is one of baseball's premier young talents. His high floor – reflected by a .414 OBP through 93 minor-league games, all played at Double-A – offsets a ceiling that's uncertain due to his lack of established power or a clear defensive home. There is very realistic star potential here, and that's known around the league. Which is why some folks are wondering if the Twins might look to flip him in a trade for pitching when action resumes this offseason. Although he's played a lot of shortstop in the minors, no one really expects him to end up there. Martin's most valuable positions are likely center field and second base, where the Twins happen to be well set. 4. Royce Lewis, SS 2021 Ranking: 5 Here's an example of the Twins' needs outweighing a neutral assessment of player value. In a vacuum, I would probably rate Martin as a better prospect and player asset than Royce Lewis, who is an unknown commodity after struggling in 2019 and then missing two straight years. In spite of this, we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that Lewis was a #1 overall draft pick who has been a regular on the top end of prospect rankings since joining the pro ranks. His high character and innate physical gifts lead many to believe he'll find his footing quickly and re-establish himself as an electric difference-maker across multiple phases of the game. Most importantly, for the purposes of this list, you'll notice that Lewis is the only player on it listed as "SS." He's hardly a lock to stick at short, but he's got a better chance than any other player or prospect in the system currently. The Twins seem to firmly believe he can remain there, which may have guided them away from pursuing a free agent on a long-term deal. Unless the situation changes, Minnesota is putting the future of a vital position in Lewis' hands, which makes him one of the organization's most critical players. Here's hoping he can rise to the occasion after a lengthy dormant period. 3. Alex Kirilloff, 1B/OF 2021 Ranking: 2 Long viewed as one of the most advanced and explosive bats in the minor leagues, Alex Kirilloff arrived in 2021 and affirmed his rep. The overall numbers – .251/.299/.423 with eight homers and 34 RBIs in 59 games – were perfectly solid for a 23-year-old rookie. They also undersell his performance, which was hampered by a flukishly bad 0-for-15 start and then a serious wrist injury he played through for weeks before shutting it down in mid-July. Kirilloff underwent surgery around that time, and is expected to be back at full strength for spring training (whenever it starts). Hopefully he'll pick up where he left off: straight mashing. Kirilloff's xSLG as a rookie, according to Statcast, was .541 – same as Josh Donaldson (who was in the Top 8% of all qualified MLB hitters). With superb plate coverage, Kirilloff drives the ball to all fields and tortures opposing pitchers. Having watched him, I have little doubt he is going to be an offensive force (maybe even an MVP-caliber hitter) so long as he can keep future bouts with injury at bay. Defensively, he was serviceable in left but looked like a natural at first base, with instincts and movements that point to Gold Glove potential. For the time being, he's blocked there by Miguel Sanó, and given the team's current needs, Kirilloff's ability to play in the corners is quite helpful. The Twins still control him for six years (through age 29) after slightly delaying his arrival in 2021. 2. Jorge Polanco, 2B 2021 Ranking: 6 It's been quite the roller coaster for Jorge Polanco over the past few years. Coming off a breakthrough season where he was an All-Star shortstop and credible MVP candidate at age 25, he and his team-friendly contract reached the #1 spot in our rankings heading into 2020. Then, Polanco's performance nosedived in a shortened campaign marred by ankle issues. He dropped back to #6 last year – his more customary range prior to the 2019 glow-up. Unlike Max Kepler, however, Polanco rebounded to prove his star turn with the Bomba Squad was no outlier. In 2021, following a move to second base, Polanco regained his peak offensive form, shaking off a slow start to launch 33 homers and 35 doubles while setting career highs in SLG (.503) and OPS+ (125). He was a consistent centerpiece of the lineup, mashing from both sides of the plate as a switch-hitter. His transition to a new position was rocky at times, but Polanco seemed to get more comfortable as the season went on and showed all the skills to excel. Shifting down the defensive spectrum is theoretically a ding to his value, but sub-par play at shortstop limited his benefit there. He can offer plenty of value as a top-tier offensive second baseman in his prime, with two years of inexpensive team control followed by a pair of reasonable team options. 1. Byron Buxton, CF 2021 Ranking: 9 Byron Buxton's durability issues were hardly erased in 2021, another season cut short by long absences. But while he was on the field for 61 games, the center fielder's brilliance and MVP-caliber impact was more evident than ever before. He won AL Player of the Month in April, and had a 1.180 OPS in early May before back-to-back major injuries (a strained hip and broken hand) cost him nearly four months. When he was able to play, Buxton was a remarkable difference-maker, producing an absurd 4.2 fWAR in less than half a season. But while he was out, the team struggled to counteract his absence. Buxton's reliable unreliability will remain a reality until it's not. But his newly-minted contract extension accounts for that. The stunningly favorable terms of Buxton's deal make him an easy choice for #1 on this list. It's essentially unheard of to be able to lock up an elite talent throughout his prime while largely paying him based on rate of production. Buck's recurring base salary of $15M/year is an absolute bargain for a franchise centerpiece and premier player in the game. His unique contract, driven heavily by MVP voting incentives, is a perpetual self-motivator. Any other team in the league would be thrilled to have this contract. But a no-trade clause ensures none of them can have it. Buxton's here for the long haul, and now the Twins can fully focus on building a championship team around him. With our countdown complete, here's a look at the full list of the top 20 Twins assets of 2022: Byron Buxton, CF Jorge Polanco, 2B Alex Kirilloff, 1B/OF Royce Lewis, SS Austin Martin, OF Bailey Ober, RHP Joe Ryan, RHP Mitch Garver, C Max Kepler, RF Ryan Jeffers, C Luis Arraez, UTIL Trevor Larnach, OF Jordan Balazovic, RHP Jhoan Duran, RHP Jose Miranda, 2B/3B Chase Petty, RHP Gilberto Celestino, CF Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP Josh Winder, RHP Matt Canterino, RHP Check back next week for a full recap of the list, featuring analysis, takeaways, and more. Thanks for reading, and feel free to share your thoughts on these rankings in the comments below. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Order the Offseason Handbook — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

Last week's second installment of my annual top 20 Twins assets rankings included Luis Arraez at #11. I concluded his blurb with what I feel is a fairly obvious reality: Arraez is a prime trade candidate. The sour reaction to that idea hints at how such a move would be widely received, regardless of the strategic logic behind it. Luis Arraez is an extremely popular player. This is known. Merely bringing up the idea of trading him can stir up considerable emotion and anger, as I've learned here and on Twitter. I get it. It's easy to see why he is so popular. Arraez has earned the affinity of casual fans and hardcores alike. His consistent .300 batting averages, in an era where those are increasingly rare, endear him to the more traditional follower. For those who gravitate more toward sabermetrics and advanced stats, it is the healthy OBPs driven by Arraez's bat and discipline that define his indispensable value. Everyone can agree that his personality and his amusing mannerisms on the field are treasures. Arraez is a joy to behold. But the front office can't make decisions based solely on likability or popularity if they want to steer this ship back into contention. They need to make savvy moves and opportunistic improvements. They need to make hard choices. Trading Arraez would certainly qualify, but the logic is undeniable: The 24-year-old's considerable strengths are balanced by significant detriments. His knees have already proven to be a chronic issue at his young age. He's not a defensive asset anywhere on the field. He doesn't hit for any power. Despite these drawbacks, he'd clearly be a coveted asset on the trade market. Arraez is still at the front end of his physical prime, with three remaining years of team control. He's a bona fide OBP machine at the top of the lineup, and still has a chance to develop some pop. His defensive versatility could be viewed as highly appealing for many teams. However... Arraez is very redundant within the Twins' roster planning. The two positions he's most capable of playing — second and third — are manned by two of the team's best veteran players, who are both under guaranteed contract for the next two years. Meanwhile, top prospects Austin Martin and Jose Miranda also seem destined to end up at one of the three positions Arraez has played most (2B/3B/LF). A year ago, ultra-plugged national reporter Ken Rosenthal mentioned the idea of Arraez being floated as a trade piece, suggesting the Twins had at least entertained such discussions. That was before the arrival of Martin and the emergence of Miranda. In the present situation, there's an urgency to clear a logjam and acquire impact pitching in the process. Arraez doesn't necessarily have to be the guy sent out in such an undertaking, but he sure strikes me as the most likely. Are fans ready for that? Is the front office ready for the reaction that would likely follow? How about ownership, which was reportedly applying pressure for a Byron Buxton contract extension in part because of dwindling fan morale? The Twins and their decision makers aren't exactly on firm footing in the eyes of a fanbase beaten down by a brutal season and totally inactive offseason thus far. If they make a move like this, the return had better be undeniably strong, as well as the messaging. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Order the Offseason Handbook — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

It's a risk that exists with any pitcher, of course. I'd be more anxious about it with these two if there were clear signs of over-performing. But these guys both dominated throughout the minors, and they both had spectacular K/BB rates, which to me is one of the most straightforward indicators of sustainable effectiveness. Both Ober and Ryan were homer-prone and I could see that getting out of control. That's the biggest red flag for me. But it's true of many pitchers today, and not just young ones.

Continuing our rankings of the most valuable player assets in the Minnesota Twins organization, we share our picks for six through 10. This list attempts to answer a simple question: Which 20 players and prospects are most indispensable in the team's quest to win a championship? Before getting started, you can get up to speed on the ground rules, which were covered in the first installment, and also read up on our picks for #11-15. Here are the players we've ranked so far: 20. Matt Canterino, RHP 19. Josh Winder, RHP 18. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP 17. Gilberto Celestino, CF 16. Chase Petty, RHP 15. Jose Miranda, 2B/3B 14. Jhoan Duran, RHP 13. Jordan Balazovic, RHP 12. Trevor Larnach, OF 11. Luis Arraez, UTIL From there, we crack into the top 10. Top 20 Twins Assets of 2022: 6 through 10 10. Ryan Jeffers, C 2021 Ranking: 7 Two-way catchers are among the most valuable commodities in baseball. It's not yet clear that Jeffers will be one, but his young major-league career has offered promising signs. Defensively, Jeffers established himself as a strong pitcher framer and good overall backstop. His instincts and reaction speed enable him to make special plays. He seems to have the confidence of the pitching staff – no small feat for a 24-year-old who went from college to the majors in two years. Offensively, his rushed development has been evident. After an impressive rookie showing in 2020, Jeffers saw his OPS drop by 120 points as lacking plate discipline derailed his production. But while the .199 average and .270 on-base percentage were tough to stomach, Jeffers kept bringing the power with 14 home runs in 85 games. At worst, Jeffers looks like a good defensive catcher who can take one deep here and there. (A poor man's Salvador Perez, perhaps?) If he can evolve a bit in the batter's box, he'll become a highly coveted asset – the heralded two-way catcher. It's important to keep in mind Jeffers' age and experience; when Mitch Garver was 24, he was posting a .688 OPS in Single-A. 9. Max Kepler, RF 2021 Ranking: 3 Kepler is an average hitter and an elite defensive right fielder with a very favorable contract. That combination would have more value to a lot of other teams than it does to the Twins, who wouldn't mind spending on an outfielder and already have a top-notch defender in center. A persistent inability to turn the corner offensively – outside of a short-lived breakout in 2019 – has made Kepler a frustrating player to follow. But when you look past that, he's an excellent athlete and quality regular, still a year short of 30 and under team control at reasonable rates for the next two seasons, with a $10M option in 2024. 8. Mitch Garver, C 2021 Ranking: 8 Garver's struggles with the bat in 2020 carried over into the beginning of 2021, where he slashed .151/.196/.321 through 17 games while striking out half the time. As the catcher's incredible 2019 faded further from view, many began to wonder if his approach was broken. Maybe it was, but Garver fixed it in a hurry. He homered twice in his last game of April, and pretty much never looked back, hitting .292/.406/.584 with 11 homers and 12 doubles in 51 games the rest of the way. Garver rediscovered his plate discipline, and as soon as that happened, he got back to dominating and basically out-homering the world (on a per-rate basis). It was a second consecutive season for Garver that was cut short by injuries. The punishment he's taken behind the plate, along with the increasingly evident need to have his bat in the lineup, could compel the Twins to start shifting Garver to different positions more. But that needs to be weighed against the tremendous advantage gained by writing him in at catcher. Since 2019 Garver ranks second among all MLB backstops in wOBA (min. 500 PA). He'd be higher on this list if not for his waning team control, with free agency only two seasons away. 7. Joe Ryan, RHP 2021 Ranking: NR Managing to secure Ryan in exchange for Nelson Cruz ahead of the trade deadline was a nifty bit of work by the front office, and one that probably doesn't get talked about often enough. As a 40-year-old designated hitter approaching free agency, Cruz had limited value, but the Twins leveraged Tampa's situation and were able to add an asset that immediately becomes a key part of their plans. The 25-year-old Ryan dominated at Triple-A this year, and translated his performance to the majors. In five starts for the Twins, he struck out six times as many batters as he walked, and allowed only 16 hits in 26 ⅓ innings. The right-hander cemented his spot in a needy rotation, and he's lined up to be an inexpensive fixture for years to come. All in return for an aging and expensive DH who didn't really help the Rays that much, and is now a free agent. In terms of asset upgrades, it doesn't get much better than what the Twins pulled off here. 6. Bailey Ober, RHP 2021 Ranking: NR Like Ryan, Ober is a newcomer to the rankings and finds himself near the top. But unlike Ryan, he's not a newcomer to the system. The former 12th-round draft pick boosted his stock immensely over the past couple years by significantly increasing his velocity to shed the "soft-tossing" label. Aided by a more effective fastball, which plays up from his 6-foot-9 frame, Ober was highly impressive as a rookie. There was nothing particularly fluky about his performance for the Twins, although home runs were a bit of a recurring issue. He looks the part of a mid-rotation staple, and a guy you'd feel okay about starting in the playoffs. We've seen how difficult it is for the Twins to acquire impact pitching via free agency. Developing cost-controlled arms is instrumental to this front office's vision for success. That's why Ober and Ryan rank so highly on this list: the team's fate (especially in the short-term) is tied to them. Check back in on Wednesday when we wrap up these rankings with our picks for the top 5! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Order the Offseason Handbook — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

Dear journal, It's been 35 days since darkness fell upon the world of baseball. A new year is upon us, and under normal circumstances we'd be looking ahead eagerly to the start of spring training in a few short weeks. Alas, there is no end to this lockout in sight. Reports emerged last month indicating that MLB and its Players Association were not expected to start talking core economics until January. We're here now, and still no movement is apparent. Bob Nightingale tweeted on Monday that "no negotiating sessions [are] currently scheduled" between the two sides. Seemingly determined to further tarnish his own tattered reputation while presiding over the first labor stoppage in three decades, commissioner Rob Manfred made waves this week by dropping the axe on Ken Rosenthal, one of the finest sports reporters in the biz, over perceived negative coverage. Rosenthal will no longer appear on MLB Network, though thankfully his exceptional work can still be found via FOX and The Athletic. Speaking of exceptional reporters, the latest writeup from Jeff Passan of ESPN opens up with this burst of sunshine: The first month of the lockout was largely unnoticeable to me amidst the bustle of the holiday season, but now I can feel my irritation growing and compounding. Manfred and the league are doing nothing to engender sympathy or support with their lack of urgency and bizarrely adversarial actions. To keep my mind off that whole stagnant situation for the time being, I'm focusing on Twins-related distractions. I've been putting together my annual top 20 Twins asset rankings, and rolled out part 1 (16 through 20) and part 2 (11 through 15) this week. I'm excited to dig into the top 10 next week. I'm also excited about a new podcast/video series project that I've been working with the team on. More details on that soon. For now, these serve as sufficient diversions. But as the month of January progresses and the traditional reporting date for pitchers and catchers grows nearer, it'll be harder and harder to ignore the elephant in the room. Before long, we'll be looking at an inevitable delay to spring training, and Opening Day will enter the crosshairs. How much more bad press will Manfred and the league manage to attract by then? View full article

I mean, he played all of 10 games after returning to Triple-A. He did have an injury, and it wasn't undisclosed: he mentioned being bothered by a foot injury for much of the summer, and one wonders if this played a role in the team shutting him down for all of September (ostensibly due to a hand contusion). One year ago Larnach was a top 100 prospect in baseball according to Baseball America, MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus (top 40 according to BA!). I understand why folks are down on him, but ranking him any lower than 12th on this list would feel like a major overreaction to me.

Continuing our rankings of the most valuable player assets in the Minnesota Twins organization, we highlight our picks for 11 through 15. This list attempts to answer a simple question: Which 20 players and prospects are most indispensable in the team's quest to win a championship? Before getting started, you can get up to speed on the ground rules, which were covered in the first installment. Here are the players we've ranked so far: 20. Matt Canterino, RHP 19. Josh Winder, RHP 18. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP 17. Gilberto Celestino, CF 16. Chase Petty, RHP From there, we dive into the top 15. Top 20 Twins Assets of 2022: 11 through 15 15. Jose Miranda, 3B/2B 2021 Ranking: NR The system's shining star of 2021. Since being drafted in the second round back in 2016, Miranda always seemed on the verge of a breakout, and last year it finally came. In 127 games between Double-A and Triple-A, he slashed .344/.401/.572 with 30 homers and 94 RBIs. The infielder's emergence was no accident. Similar to former Twin (and fellow Puerto Rican) Eddie Rosario, Miranda is gifted with amazing bat-to-ball skills, which can lead to overly aggressive tendencies. In 2021, the 23-year-old turned a corner that Rosario never really did. "At instructs last fall, our guys worked with Jose on the value of hard contact, of going deeper into counts if it meant getting a better pitch,” Derek Falvey told Phil Miller. “He saw the advantage of patience.” That's not to say drawing walks was a strength for Miranda. He's an aggressive hitter who wants to swing, and in 2021 he did damage. So much that it's impossible to dismiss as a one-off outlier from a perennial underperformer. The infielder's bat is legit. The question is HOW legit, and where will he settle in defensively. 14. Jhoan Duran, RHP 2021 Ranking: 12 In the last installment, I talked about the clustered grouping of minor-league pitchers at the back end of this list. As a composite, they're pivotal to the franchise's future, but individually, none have separated all that much. Duran and Jordan Balazovic are the pitching prospects in this system that have separated. Duran's demonstrated upside may exceed that of Balazovic, but injuries hold him back as an asset. In 2021, Duran was able to throw only 16 total innings, with an elbow strain costing him nearly the whole season. Surgery was not deemed necessary, and that hopeful sign keeps him relatively high on this year's rankings. With Brusdar Graterol gone, there isn't a more powerful arm in the system. It now seems more likely than ever that Duran will follow Graterol's path and wind up as a flamethrowing reliever, but he can bring huge value in that role. 13. Jordan Balazovic, RHP 2021 Ranking: 13 While he didn't avoid the injury bug entirely, missing the first month with a back issue, Balazovic held up better than most pitching prospects in 2021's return to action. He set a career high with 97 innings, and threw well at Double-A: 3.62 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 9 HR allowed in 20 GS. The fact that 97 IP marked a new personal record shows how slowly Balazovic has come along from a workload standpoint. Drafted back in 2016, he has accrued only 325 total innings as a pro. He's still very much on a starting pitcher track, but it's going to take some time to build his stamina to the level of a traditional SP workload. Maybe that's not what the Twins have in mind. 12. Trevor Larnach, OF 2021 Ranking: 10 Coming into the 2021 season, Larnach was one of the Twins' most outstanding outfield prospects. His debut brought forth both sides of that descriptor: "outstanding" and "prospect." During his first few weeks in the big leagues, Larnach looked like a natural, working counts and driving the ball with authority. Before long he was routinely batting third in Rocco Baldelli's lineups. Then, we were reminded that Larnach is a 24-year-old whose development was rushed by circumstance. While not quite as out-of-place in the majors as Gilberto Celestino, Larnach was definitely called up out of necessity, having only three Triple-A games under his belt after a lost year. To his credit, he handled it well, for a while. Through 32 games and 118 PA, Larnach was slashing .273/.390/.434 with a 29% K-rate. In the next 47 games and 183 PA, he'd slash .193/.279/.298 with a 38% K-rate. He further struggled after returning to Triple-A. It's hard to get a true feel for where he's at, and how heavily we should weigh the flaws that dragged him down after that good start. I tend to lean toward favoring his pedigree, reputation for adjustments, and raw skill. Larnach remains a crux piece for this organization going forward. 11. Luis Arraez, UTIL 2021 Ranking: 11 Many won't like to hear it, but this is a very generous ranking for Arraez. He's extremely popular and beloved among fans – understandably so – but there are a number of factors detracting from his value as an asset. First, there are the bad knees. They've frequently forced him off the field, and hobbled him while playing. Not a great long-term indicator for a 24-year-old. Then there is the lack of defensive impact. He's not above-average anywhere he plays, maybe not even average. Also, Arraez hasn't hit for any power, having turned in a paltry .376 slugging percentage last year. It feels necessary to get these drawbacks out of the way, only because anyone who's watched him knows Arraez is special. He has rarefied bat-to-ball skills, and a keen eye at the plate. His on-base proficiency is key to making a power-driven Twins lineup run. Arraez has a .313 average and .374 OBP through three big-league seasons. Those numbers speak for themselves. Though he's not great defensively at any one position, Arraez's ability to hold his own at several could be viewed as a major strength. I'm just not sure it's one that fits well with the Twins and their current situation. Will they trade him? Check back in next week for Part 3, where we'll crack into the top 10 of our rankings! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Order the Offseason Handbook — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article