Nick Nelson

Fans in our community have been coming up with their own ideas, suggestions, and plans for the Minnesota Twins this offseason. We reviewed a bunch of them, and here we'll highlight some common threads, intriguing notions, and outside-the-box proposals. We created our Roster & Payroll Creator tool with the hopes that fans would dive in and devise their own blueprints illustrating different approaches to this crucial Twins offseason. I shared my own to kick things off. We're thrilled to see that in just a couple weeks since we officially launched the tool alongside the Offseason Handbook, several of you have taken us up on the challenge. In fact, we're kind of blown away. I went through the forums and blogs over the weekend and came across about a dozen submissions, most of them with thoughtful explanations of the decisions and motivations. You can click through to view any of them below. Each one has its own comment thread so you can share your thoughts: Andrew Mahlke blueprint Cory Engelhardt blueprint terrydactyls blueprint Greglw3 blueprint Sconnie blueprint TheLeviathan blueprint DocBauer blueprint mk blueprint mitcho8 blueprint sthpstm blueprint Ian23 blueprint wildtwinsfan045 blueprint As I perused these various perspectives on what a successful Twins offseason would look like, here are a few trends and specifics that caught my attention. Everyone Wants a Buxton Extension Almost every single blueprint submitted includes a contract extension for Byron Buxton, and it was usually the top priority accounted for. I was legitimately impressed by how many people took a stab at laying out their version of a reasonable framework. The particulars varied, but most conceptual deals called for about $15M in annual base salary plus incentives over 5-7 seasons. I don't think I saw a single blueprint proposing a Buxton trade – a little surprising, given the likelihood of such an outcome in real life. (For what it's worth, I tried hypothesizing one in this piece.) Basically everyone seems to be reaching the same conclusion. If reports in July were true – that Buxton's camp was comfortable with a deal built largely on incentives – it simply makes no sense for the Twins not to find a way to get it done. The Most Popular High-End SP Target Is... Blueprinters erred toward the side of realism, as I didn't see any write-ups that suggested signing Max Scherzer, or Clayton Kershaw, or Noah Syndergaard. The most common Tier 1 SP free agent to appear in these plans was Marcus Stroman, which doesn't surprise me because he looks like a fairly natural Twins fit. In the Handbook we noted how similarly he profiles to José Berríos as a fringe #1/2 type in the rotation. As @DocBauer put it succinctly in their blueprint: "He's quality and proven." Robbie Ray was the prime choice of those who wanted to dream big, such as @Greglw3 and @Sconnie, and Carlos Rodón showed up in the blueprints from @Andrew Mahlke and @mk. I was a little surprised by the lack of love for Kevin Gausman, who didn't appear in a single one of these blueprints. We Like Big Mike The most common free agent signing across all of these different plans was easily Michael Pineda. More than half of the blueprint submissions call for a Big Mike reunion. It's just too logical a fit. He has a known affinity for playing in Minnesota and should come with a reasonable mid-rotation price tag. In the Handbook we project him for an $8M salary – it may wind up coming in a little higher or lower, but that should be in the ballpark. If you have any faith in him staying healthy and keeping his fastball in the 93-MPH range, that's a good value and a rotation spot taken care of. What to Do at Shortstop? Opinions were very split on how to approach the Twins' biggest positional need. A few users called for going big – @mitcho8 proposed a Trevor Story signing, while @TheLeviathan and @wildtwinsfan045 made Corey Seager their centerpieces – but many relented to a stopgap like Jose Iglesias or Freddy Galvis. (Notably, Andrelton Simmons was absent from all blueprints.) Who Should Close for the Twins? It's a key question. Most blueprints advise the Twins to stick with Taylor Rogers in his final year of arbitration. Some call for adding a co-closer to offset some of the injury risk. User @Doctor Gast decided to crowdsource the question in the forums, which created some good discussion. Aside from Rogers, the most popular name seems to be Raisel Iglesias. Ryan Tepera and Kirby Yates (on an incentive-laden deal) were also tossed around. @Rosterman wondered if perhaps Jorge Alcalá could become a closer option as soon as 2022. (There may be something to that.) Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel are pretty clearly out of the question, but one name that conspicuously didn't seem to come up was Mark Melancon. The fact that no one seems to be looking at him almost makes me wonder if the Twins will. Rounding out that top tier with Jansen, Kimbrel and Iglesias, Melancon seems to be the unsexy choice given his age (36) and his unspectacular strikeout rate (8.2 K/9 this year, and in his career). But the guy's track record in the closer role is pretty incredible, and he was an All-Star in 2021. Some believe the Twins are better off keeping closer as a backburner priority, such as @nicksaviking, who made this comment that's (at least for me) hard to argue with: "Unless it's some surprisingly big name who is a year-in year-out reliable stud, I don't want to hand over the closer gig to any free agent. Relievers rarely have similar years back to back. Their small sample sizes, transient nature and lack of a third pitch tend to make them more unpredictable than other baseball players. In 2022 the high leverage relievers should = whomever is currently the hottest pitchers RIGHT NOW; not last year, or whomever is paid the most." Manaea Mania! There were several different creative trade scenarios outlined in these blueprints. The most frequent player targeted was Oakland's Sean Manaea. Packages used to acquire the lefty starter differed greatly, and illustrated the difficulty of predicting trades – @Cory Engelhardt pitched a return of Matt Canterino, Matt Wallner and Blayne Enlow (a bit much, IMO), while @Ian23 drew up an exchange of Drew Strotman, Keoni Cavaco and Jermaine Palacios for Manaea and shortstop Elvis Andrus (a bit light, although I like the two-birds-with-one-stone execution here). The bottom line is that Manaea looks like a very plausible trade candidate as a starter getting expensive in his final year of arbitration for the low-spending A's. (He's projected to make about $10M in 2021.) He's an excellent fit for the Twins and their needs. Mingling with Miami Aside from the Manaea trades, there were a few other interesting ideas offered up. For example, @terrydactyls mapped out a blockbuster that involves Minnesota sending Max Kepler, Luis Arraez, Mitch Garver, and Simeon Woods Richardson to Miami in exchange for Sandy Alcantera and Richard Bleier, with Alcantara serving as a young ace-type centerpiece. A blueprint from @sthpstm gives another take on a Twins/Marlins trade, proposing the following: Garver, Trevor Larnach, Miguel Sanó, Canterino (or similar), and $4M to Miami for Edward Cabrera, Jesus Luzardo, and Nick Fortes. Another high-scale concept that brings in high-end young pitching talent, this time with a top prospect as the prize rather than an established MLB starter like Alcantara. @TheLeviathan's blueprint included a straight swap of Garver for Sixto Sanchez. Clearly, people are zeroing in on the Marlins as a trade partner for Minnesota, and that makes plenty of sense: they have a wealth of young pitching and need bats. As Nash Walker wrote in his feature for the Handbook, "No team is a better trade partner for Minnesota than the Miami Marlins." Let's See Your Plan We've seen a lot of different ideas laid out above, but there are still endless combinations and permutations of what this Twins offseason could look like. We'd love to see yours, so if you haven't put one together yet, we invite you to grab a copy of the Offseason Handbook, pull up the Roster & Payroll tool, and show us what you've got. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Order the Offseason Handbook — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

With the World Series reaching its end, the baseball world now turns its attention to the offseason ahead. You can do the same by snagging your copy of the 2022 Offseason Handbook. The 63-page ebook is now available for immediate download on a name-your-price basis (including free). It's no secret that the coming offseason will probably not be a "normal" one, with the impending expiration of Major League Baseball's collective bargaining agreement on December 1st looming like a dark storm cloud on the horizon. This is discussed in one of the first chapters of the Handbook, in which John Bonnes lays out the situation and charts possible scenarios. Outcomes range from a cancellation of the 2022 season (very unlikely) to a delayed start of significant activity in the coming offseason (very likely). We may have to wait longer than usual for the Hot Stove action to get underway, but ultimately, the Twins do have a roster to build for next year. They'll have some work to do with a pitching staff to rebuild and a key vacancy at shortstop. You'll be able to spend the early offseason downtime sizing up all the possibilities and mapping out different paths forward. Within this full-color, 63-page digital guide to the Hot Stove landscape, you'll find: Profiles on more than 100 free agents at positions of need, including SP, RP, and SS Trade scenarios covered from both sides (who are the Twins most likely to deal, and which pitchers could they target?) A comprehensive overview of the organization's depth at each position, highlighting breakout prospects to watch Write-ups on the 12 arbitration-eligible Twins players, weighing pros and cons plus projected salaries Analysis of the budget and spending, with an eye on what's possible and what's realistic in terms of 2022 resources Feature stories examining the various avenues to rebuilding a sparse pitching staff, and the critical Byron Buxton decision If you're so inclined, you can use the Offseason Handbook in conjunction with our Roster & Payroll Creator tool to draw up your own scenarios and blueprints. In what figures to a slow-moving and drawn-out offseason, we're hopeful that these resources provide fans with some entertainment and enjoyment in the ongoing absence of real baseball news. Despite some expected turbulence along the way, there's a general consensus that the 2022 MLB season will proceed (mostly) as planned. The Twins have some work to do before then. With your copy of the Offseason Handbook, you'll have all the information and insight you need to analyze the road ahead. We eternally appreciate contributions of all sizes, but be assured: we're not the least bit offended if you grab a copy for free. Most of all we just want everyone to enjoy the product. Order yours now! View full article

I don't think this is quite fair. The average AL catcher had a .694 OPS this year. Jeffers has a .691 career OPS and was at .670 this season. If he gets slightly better he'll be average, and if he returns simply to his 2020 level he'll be very good. (Is it a coincidence he was more successful while playing more regularly in 2020 with Garver down?) Catchers, by and large, don't hit. If they're good at defense and you have bats elsewhere in the lineup, they don't need to. Houston got a .614 OPS from catcher this year. Atlanta got a .588 OPS from theirs. An offensive catcher like Garver is a luxury, but not that much of one when his playing time is so limited. Garver hasn't started more than 75 games in a season at catcher. I'm simply proposing we lower that planned number, and give him more PAs at DH to maximize his impact.

He also hit 14 HR as a good defensive catcher, and essentially a 24-year-old rookie. More uncommon than you imply. How many players at his age and experience level were in that sample of catchers with 250-PA this year? Yes, his plate discipline needs a lot of work. IMO the best way to help him develop that is to provide more regular ABs instead of having him split time with one of the team's best hitters in Garver. Keep in mind Jeffers has less than 50 total games worth of experience above Single-A in the minors. You can't evaluate him as some sort of finished product right now. If the Twins were all-in on a championship next year I might agree that Jeffers is best relegated to the bench, but that's not the case. The Twins need to get a clear read on what they have in him, because Garver is only under control for two more seasons...

That's exactly how I see him. A stopgap until Lewis or Martin or Celestino can emerge. They're not far off at all. I definitely share your perception on the team's stance, but if Buxton leaves, the Twins should rethink their view on Kepler, holding him less as a top-of-order RF and more as a bottom-of-order CF, or even 4th OF. The great glove/sub-mediocre offense from right might work when you've got Buxton playing center and slugging like Bambino. Less so when you have to find a Buxton replacement, and you've got Kepler right there, with an adequate glove for CF. As far as the health thing goes, he wasn't that healthy this year while barely playing center so -- shrug --

I have him at DH, although I envision him spending a decent amount of time at catcher and maybe 1B as well, with Arraez, Miranda, Rooker, etc all rotating through the DH spot. My thought is that Garver is more likely to stay healthy this way, and IF he can stay relatively healthy he's a decent replacement for Cruz. (Cruz the last 3 years: 936 OPS / Garver: 894.) I actually think it's a wise approach regardless of what else the Twins do. It gives Jeffers more of a chance to play regularly and find his stride, plus I guess I'm not as down on others on Rortvedt as a backup C.

In the roster blueprint I had Miranda written in as the starting 3B, so my thought is that he'd be starting there pretty regularly. I just put Arraez in the Opening Day lineup because if it's against a RHP I figure that's what they'd do.

You seem to have a pretty high bar for "significant." Nelson Cruz was not a significant free agent signing?

We recently released our Twins Roster & Payroll Creation tool, which allows any user to take a shot at crafting their own offseason blueprint for the team. (As I did last week.) The tool also can be used to map out different scenarios and strategic approaches. Here I'll try to answer a pertinent question: what would a major shakeup and roster overhaul look like for the Twins this winter? To be clear, the scenario we're hypothesizing here is not a commitment to a rebuild, which could involve gutting the payroll, trading stars for distant prospects, and letting the kids run. Instead, we're trying to depict what it might look like if the organization says, "We still want to compete, we still want to spend, but the current mix just isn't working." It will involve keeping some core pieces in place, but unloading large or expiring contracts and charting a new, dramatically different course for the franchise. This means starting with... THE SUBTRACTIONS Trade 1B Miguel Sanó to San Diego Padres for OF Samuel Zavala This is mainly a salary dump. The Twins owe Sanó $9.25M in 2022, with a $3M team option for 2023, so I have them picking up that option amount (added to the "Dead Money" section) while San Diego takes on the rest of his salary and exchanges a lotto ticket in 17-year-old Samuel Zavala. He's an athletic rookie-ball outfielder ranked as the organization's #17 prospect. This idea presumes that universal DH is implemented, which seems like a safe bet. The championship-minded Padres could use more pop in the lineup, with first baseman Eric Hosmer and the corner outfielders not providing a ton. Trade 3B Josh Donaldson to Washington Nationals for RHP Joan Adon and LHP Matt Cronin Another trade aimed more at salary relief than upgrading talent. This swap was proposed by J.D. Cameron in his story for the Offseason Handbook, so I'll just repurpose it here because it seems like a reasonable framework for a Donaldson deal: Washington sends a couple of mid-tier pitching prospects (ranked #12 and #22 in their system) while taking on two-thirds of JD's remaining commitment. The Twins eat the rest of his salary, so $7M gets added to the Dead Money pool. Trade OF Byron Buxton to Philadelphia Phillies for RHP Mick Abel and RHP Francisco Morales Here the Twins start getting some real value back. If they determine that an extension with Buxton can't be reached, this is the logical path. Philadelphia reportedly expressed interest in Buxton around the deadline, so here the two sides revisit and strike an accord now that the star center fielder is healthy. For a cost-efficient final year of Buxton's control, Philadelphia gives up its #1 pitching prospect in Abel, who was drafted 15th overall in 2020 (10 picks after Austin Martin) and was ranked by MLB Pipeline ahead of this season as the game's #76 prospect. Abel offers plentiful upside, but he's still a ways off (pitched in Single-A this year and turned 20 in August). To round out the package, Philly adds in Morales, their #6-ranked prospect. He's 22 and reached Triple-A this season, and would bring further depth to Minnesota's substantial crop of near-ready arms in the minors. To be clear, I don't personally endorse a move like this – I think failing to retain Buxton would be a colossal mistake – but if they can't make an extension happen, this feels like a reasonable way to soften the blow by acquiring some quality talent in offsetting the loss. Non-tender Taylor Rogers Of course a trade would be preferable, but in this scenario I'm assuming the Twins (and other teams) don't feel confident enough in his injured finger to tender an offer in the $7M range, because they feel they can make that money stretch further in free agency. (We'll get to the reallocation of these funds in the bullpen shortly.) THE ADDITIONS A lineup that's lost three key fixtures in Sanó, Donaldson in Buxton now needs an infusion, and of course there are still those three open rotation spots to address – not to mention a closer spot to fill. The good news is that the above moves have left us with about $85M in spending money for 2022 (assuming a steady $130M payroll). Let's take advantage of this flexibility with a free-agent spending spree, led by two landmark signings that radically reshape the franchise's identity. Sign SP Robbie Ray to a 5-year, $125M contract At long last, the Twins make their long-awaited plunge into the deep end of the pitching market, signing Ray to the largest free agent contract in team history, coming off a spectacular season in Toronto that will likely earn the Cy Young Award. Ray led the league in strikeouts, innings, and ERA. It had the looks of a true breakout for the 30-year-old, but Ray's mediocre previous run (4.53 ERA from 2018 through 2020) should keep him out of the Gerrit Cole range, meaning the Twins could plausibly win a bidding war. So, we've got our rotation-fronter. Now we turn our attention to a big splash at the shortstop position to counteract the significant subtraction of electricity from Buxton and others. Sign SS Javier Báez to a 4-year, $88M contract Like Ray, Báez is a high-tier prospect in his free agent class, but not quite at the top because he has some warts. Namely, Báez hasn't been all that great the past couple years. But in 2018 and 2019 he broke out as a superstar, finishing as MVP runner-up in the former. Báez would be well worth the $22M AAV if he his 2021 performance (3.6 fWAR) becomes his norm, but the Twins are banking on a return to form of sorts from the 29-year-old. He becomes a cornerstone next to Jorge Polanco, while the Twins hope that one of Royce Lewis, Austin Martin, or Gilberto Celestino can emerge in center to solidify their long-term strength up the middle. WIth that, we turn our attention back to the rotation. Sign SP Eduardo Rodriguez to a 3-year, $36M contract Rodriguez's advanced metrics shine a much more favorable light on him than his ERA, so it'll be interesting to see how the market gauges him. Based on FanGraphs' value calculation, E-Rod's 3.8 fWAR with Boston in 2021 made him worth nearly $30M; his record of durability and his age (only 28) help his case as well. Still, it's hard to see someone signing Rodriguez to a mega-deal coming off a 4.74 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. This looks like the type of opportunistic buy-low play the Twins aspire toward. The framework and approach are not dissimilar to the Rangers' (highly effective) strategy in free agent signings like Mike Minor, Lance Lynn, and Kyle Gibson. Sign OF Mark Canha to a 3-year, $30M contract Even with Baez added to the mix, the position player group still needs more veteran reinforcements to aid the internally-driven evolution of the lineup. Canha looks like a nice fit – he's a right-handed bat capable of playing left field, center, and first base. On-base skills are his calling card, as illustrated by a .377 OBP over the past three seasons. He's been a steady fixture for the A's. There will surely be some reservations about handing the reins to Jose Miranda and Trevor Larnach as starters. Canha's presence in the lineup mitigates the rookie risk by provide needed experience and leadership. Sign RP Raisel Iglesias to a 2-year, $16M contract The loss of Rogers obviously leaves a huge hole at the end of the bullpen. To address it, we're signing Iglesias coming off a great year with the Angels. His track record as a closer (134 saves and a 2.87 ERA over the past five years) may have yielded a bigger deal in years past, but I wonder if the league's generally declining fixation on the save statistic – along with a competitive high end of free agency that also includes Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, and Mark Melancon – might keep Iglesias relatively affordable. The FA relief market is notoriously volatile, but Iglesias looks like as much of a sure thing as you're going to find. (Of course, the same could've been said about Addison Reed when they the Twins signed him to a similar deal in 2018.) In case you can't tell, I'm not too enthusiastic about throwing guaranteed money at relievers, which is why this is my only significant move in the bullpen. But in order for this unit to have a fighting chance, we needed at least one. Sign SP Corey Kluber to a 1-year, $7M contract We've got a bit of money left and one key vacancy to account for: the third rotation spot. Kluber fits the bill as a short-term stopgap with some upside. Since signing his one-year, $11 deal with the Yankees for 2021, Kluber has gotten a year older and dealt with more injuries. His velocity was down, he was limited to 16 starts and 80 innings, and he did not appear in the postseason. With that said, the 35-year-old showed enough positive signs while on the field – 3.83 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 9.2 K/9 rate, above-average ratings in many key Statcast metrics – to merit belief that his tank is not yet emptied. SUMMARY This plan represents a complete change in direction for the Twins, both substantively and stylistically. In Buxton, Donaldson, and Sanó, we're losing our three most established power bats, eschewing the homer-driven Bomba Squad offensive model in search of greater balance and a youth infusion. I'd imagine an Opening Day lineup that looks something like this: Arraez, 3B Baez, SS Polanco, 2B Kirilloff, 1B Garver, DH Kepler, CF Canha, LF Larnach, RF Jeffers, C On the pitching side, Ray and Rodriguez become veteran building blocks – to be rejoined by Kenta Maeda in 2023 – as the system feeds the rest of the rotation. We're counting on Iglesias to become an anchor in the back of the bullpen, supported by returns of Tyler Duffey, Jorge Alcala, Caleb Thielbar, and Juan Minaya. Would the Twins actually follow a path this drastic during the offseason? I doubt it. But there are signs that a significant shakeup could be at hand. This blueprint shows a semi-extreme version of what this could look like in practice. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Order the Offseason Handbook — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

I like this a lot Greg! Well thought out. Ray would be so fun. Big fan of Canha and consider him a very plausible Twins target.

In favor of Oakland? It's three cost-controlled years of a good outfielder for one year of a fairly expensive pitcher, and as usual the A's have a ton of pitching depth to offset his loss. Based on the responses here I think a ton of Twins fans are vastly underestimating Kepler's trade value.

I actually had Canha instead of Dickerson in my original version, but ran out of money. I think Canha's a great fit for MN and would not be at all surprised to see them pursue him.

It was reported during the season that Buxton's side was amenable to a framework that included around $80M in base guarantees -- likely over a longer term. My proposal condenses that guaranteed money into a smaller period (thus enabling him to hit free agency again and score another potentially big deal), and I said I'm open-minded to what he's looking for in terms of incentives. I'm not sure how anyone can say it's implausible he'd accept it, based on the evidence we have?

Lots of people expressing this sentiment, and I get it. My thought process is that: 1) Top contenders who are looking to spend $20M+ on a SP will be favoring more of a "sure thing" (Scherzer, Syndergaard, Gausman, Stroman ... even Kershaw?). That's not to say they won't be interested in Verlander, but maybe not rushing toward him. 2) The Twins can convince JV that last year was a blip and they're capable of contending. Is he really going to look at a team led by Buxton, Donaldson, Polanco, etc etc and feel like they can't win with him taking the lead in the rotation? Plus there's a level of familiarity here with his history in the AL Central. I'm not saying it's likely Verlander signs in MN by any means. All of the pessimism being projected toward that idea is valid. But I will say that to me he is the most realistic and viable Twins target of any Tier One free agent SP in the Handbook.

Curious to know what you (or others) think is a realistic figure for a guy with a career 4.59 ERA and 3.91 FIP (including 4.59 and 4.22 in the most recent season) who's never thrown 175 innings. Gray strikes me as being in a fairly similar situation as Phil Hughes when he signed with the Twins for 3/24 back in 2014.

What would it take for the Twins to vault back into contention in 2022, while maintaining a standard budget and navigating the realities of this year's offseason market? Our roster-building tool challenges users to do just that. Below, you'll find my blueprint for a return to relevance. First, let's go over the ground rules. In my plan, I'm aiming to be relatively realistic. This means trying to incorporate limitations and constraints that the Twins front office will actually face in its quest. Two implications: Payroll: In the roster tool, you can choose from a variety of preset payroll thresholds, or enter your own custom number. You could select a 10% increase from 2021 ($143M), or even punch in a number like $160M if you want to give yourself some bigtime money to play with. Personally, I think it's optimistic (but plausible) to project payroll remaining steady at $130M, so that's the self-imposed limit I'm working with. Free Agent Choices: Even if you can find the money in your budget to bring in a guy like, say, Max Scherzer, the reality is that he and other top-tier stars will have preferences pulling them away from Minnesota as a destination. It's a smallish market coming off a last-place finish, and these players will be in demand. We've seen in the past with targets like Zack Wheeler that money isn't everything and it takes two to tango. With that out of the way, here's a look at my roster, and how I built it. Starting with the Starters The rotation is naturally where our journey begins, because it is far-and-away the biggest need on the roster. With both of the rotation carryovers being inexperienced young pitchers who offer nothing close to certainty, I knew I'd have to bring in some legitimate names to give this unit contention cred. Atop the list, my boldest offseason move: signing free agent RHP Justin Verlander to a one-year, $20 million contract. Verlander looks very much like a gun for hire, coming off Tommy John surgery at age 39. Given those factors, he carries considerable downside, but also massive upside: we're talking about a ready-made ace who finished first and second in the Cy Young voting his last two full seasons (2019 and 2018). Will $20 million be enough to outbid the competition for Verlander? It should be in the ballpark. I've already used up a huge portion of my available funds on Verlander, so for my next free agent target, I set my gaze on the middle class of starters. There are a number of guys available here in the $10 million range – including Michael Pineda – but instead I decided to go with RHP Jon Gray on a three-year, $30 million contract. Like most at this level, Gray's a good pitcher with flaws and shortcomings, but he brings the qualities I'm looking for in a secondary rotation signing behind Verlander: decent track record of durability, reasonably high floor, and a touch of real upside. If Gray merely pitches up to his Pineda-esque career 3.91 FIP and 107 ERA+, I'm fine with that, but it feels like there's another level for the former No. 3 overall pick to unlock outside of Coors. He turns 30 next month. For my third rotation edition, I'm turning away from the free agent market and toward the trade market. In a deal inspired by J.D. Cameron's feature in the Offseason Handbook, I'm trading OF Max Kepler to the Oakland Athletics for LHP Sean Manaea. This hypothetical swap was put forth by J.D. in his story, and to me it makes a lot of sense: The cost-conscious A's need outfield help, and are likely to value Kepler's contract (owed about $16M over the next two seasons with a team option in 2024) over Manaea's (projected by MLBTR to make $10.2M in his final year of arbitration). It's a bit of a lopsided exchange in that regard, and maybe the Twins can get Oakland to tack on a bit more, but quality starting pitching is at a premium. Manaea was worth 3.3 fWAR in 2021, posting a career-high 9.7 K/9 to go along with a 3.66 FIP and 3.91 ERA in 180 innings. Turning Back to the Lineup Admittedly, my efforts to bolster the rotation come at the expense of the position player group. With so many dollars committed to our three new starting pitchers, there wasn't much left in the bank for impact hitters. So I went instead with a transitional approach here. First: signing Freddy Galvis to a one-year, $3 million deal. Galvis is no one's idea of a long-term solution at shortstop, but he can play the position capably, and he brings enough power at the plate to be useful offensively. I'm looking at him as nothing more than a stopgap to fill in until Royce Lewis is deemed ready (maybe midway through the season?). This move is as much a vote of confidence in Lewis as anything. I'm sliding Miguel Sanó to designated hitter and Alex Kirilloff to first base. These aren't static assignments – I foresee Sanó playing plenty of first, and Kirilloff plenty of outfield – but they'll be their prime positions, since it's where I think they're best suited. Luis Arraez reprises his role as a roving utility regular, seeing a health dose of action at third base with Josh Donaldson spending two days per week at DH. Our corner outfield depth has clearly taken a hit since I've traded Kepler, non-tendered Jake Cave, and moved Kirilloff to regular first base duty. To offset this, I'm signing Corey Dickerson to a one-year, $5 million contract. There's nothing especially appealing about Dickerson, who has slashed a mediocre .266/.321/.406 in 161 games over the past two seasons, but he strikes me as a solid buy-low candidate that will be available on a one-year deal. I've filled Kepler's vacancy in right field with Trevor Larnach, which might be a hazardous gamble after Larnach unraveled in his rookie campaign. But I'm a believer in his talent. I'm confident he'll get back on track, and quickly. That said, I'm for sure bringing in a few Kyle Garlick/Rob Refsnyder types to compete in camp, and leveraging the presence of Brent Rooker to protect Larnach from lefty pitchers. But at the end of the day, I'm inclined to let him run at age 25. One other detail in the position players section might catch your eye: Byron Buxton's salary. I've got him slated to make $14M instead of the $8M he's projected to get in his last year of arbitration. That's because I'm electing to channel some of my limited spending flexibility toward taking care of my utmost priority. A Long-Term Contract for Byron Buxton This is the last chance to keep Buxton in Minnesota long-term. Leverage is running low with only one year remaining until he can hit the open market, but Buxton's history of serious injuries should at least keep him open-minded about long-term security. So too should his aforementioned arbitration salary projection. Injuries have hampered Buxton's earning potential in arbitration. Getting the center field for around $8M next year – at age 28 and fresh off flashing his full potential – is an absolute bargain that the Twins (or any trade partner) will be happy to take. Since extension talks fell short over the summer, I'm trying to figure out a framework that will be attractive to his side. The first step is nearly doubling his 2022 salary, in the first leg of a five-year, $84 million contract for Buxton (technically a four-year extension): 2022: $14M (plus incentives) 2023: $16M (plus incentives) 2024: $18M (plus incentives) 2025: $18M (plus incentives) 2026: $18M (plus incentives) The "plus incentives" aspect of this should be accentuated, given that it's where the last round of talks apparently fizzled. I don't have specifics in mind but I'm pretty open to whatever Buxton's side wants. As long as he's doing the things necessary to trigger those bonuses, I'm happy to pay significantly more than the above for this historic player, and I'm not sure why the Twins wouldn't be. In any case, this deal protects the Twins' financial interests with relatively low annual guarantees. It locks Buxton up throughout his remaining peak athletic years, and gives him a chance to hit the open market once again at age 33. And Finally, the Bullpen My additions to the rotation and lineup, along with Buxton's salary boost, have mostly depleted my spending flexibility under the $130M threshold. With incumbents Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey, Caleb Thielbar, and Jorge Alcalá all returning, I'm left with about $6 million to spend on filling the final four bullpen spots. Here's how I'm divvying that up: Randy Dobnak ($800K) is the long reliever. He's making that guaranteed money as part of his contract so we might as well try to get some value from it. I'm hopeful an offseason of recovery for his problematic finger gets Dobnak back on track. In his proper form, he's a good fit for this role as an efficient, strike-throwing ground ball pitcher. Héctor Neris ($3M) is a setup man. He spent a few years as Philadelphia's closer – which will be handy, given Rogers' uncertainty – but lost the job this season due to first-half struggles. He rebounded in the second half, but Neris has never quite had the results to match his stuff, and that figures to keep him in an affordable range as a free agent. I'm taking my chances on that nasty splitter. Juan Minaya ($1M) is a middle reliever. As we wrote in Arbitration Decisions section of the Handbook, "His FIP (3.97 in 2021) is more representative than his ERA (2.48); nonetheless, Minaya’s probably as dependable of an option as you’ll find for twice the price in free agency." He brings experience and a 95 MPH fastball. I'm fine with letting him keep a seat warm for one of the upcoming arms in the system. Kirby Yates ($1M plus incentives) is a gamble. The Twins were in advanced talks with him last winter before he ultimately signed with Toronto, and then underwent Tommy John surgery in March. He might not be ready for the start of the season but the upside and track record are good enough to be worth the wait on a low-risk deal. In short, my view of the bullpen is that 2021 was an outlier, and this organization still has what it takes to identify and unleash overlooked relief arms in a cost-efficient manner. We saw them do that over the past couple seasons, building high-quality bullpens at low costs for division winners, and in fact we saw them pull it off on a smaller scale this year (Minaya, Danny Coulombe, Ralph Garza Jr.) following a series of misfires. To me, this is the only model for building a bullpen when you're a team with Minnesota's resource constraints and competing needs. We've seen time and time again how easy it is to completely whiff on free agent relievers – even those with seemingly safe track records (paging Addison Reed and Alex Colomé). Give me one proven commodity in Neris, a wild card in Yates, and then build the depth with minors signings, waiver claims, and internal arms like Jovani Moran . The Final Product Ultimately, my intent with this blueprint was to create something that aligns philosophically with what the Twins front office might actually do. For the most part, it's a series of short-term commitments – one year for Verlander, Manaea, Galvis, and Neris – thus keeping the ability to build from within intact. I am bringing some longer-term stability to the rotation with Gray's three-year contract, and most importantly, cementing Buxton as a franchise centerpiece for the next half-decade. What would your 2022 roster look like if you held yourself to a $130M payroll limit? Grab a copy of the Offseason Handbook, use it with our Roster Creator tool and share your own blueprint to share in our forums! View full article

With the World Series about to get underway, we've officially started delivering the brand-new 2022 Twins Daily Offseason Handbook to those who pre-ordered. You can buy your copy now and receive it immediately! We're also launching our interactive 2022 roster builder tool at TwinsPayroll.com. Free and accessible to anyone with a Google account, this spreadsheet can be used in conjunction with the Handbook to build a realistic contender for next year. Let's take a tour. Rounding Out the Roster When you get started, you'll find a number of players preset in their expected roles, although you're free to change and move things around. This base layout brings back most of the incumbents, with Alex Kirilloff in left field, Luis Arraez as the utility man, and Ryan Jeffers as backup catcher. The shortstop and DH positions are open and need to be filled, along with a couple of bench jobs. On the pitching staff, we've got six spots needing to be filled, and that feels like the bare minimum. (It assumes that Taylor Rogers is back, Joe Ryan gets a rotation spot, and Randy Dobnak opens as the long man in the pen. But again, you can change those too.) You'll also notice a "Dead Money" section. If we want to realistically reflect payroll obligations, we need a space to account for things like Kenta Maeda's sunk-cost 2022 salary, Alex Colomé's option buyout, and any money being eaten in – say – a Josh Donaldson trade. Filling Open Spots If you scroll down in the spreadsheet, you'll find a number of internal options listed for these open roles, along with projected 2022 salaries. These include ready or near-ready prospects, and players with optional contracts. To include these players in your blueprint, simply copy-paste or write their names into an open field, and then fill in the associated salary, which will be reflected in the TOTAL on the right side. If you scroll beyond the budget to the far right side of the spreadsheet, you'll find a number of free agent options listed at SP, RP, SS, and Other, although this sample of names only scratches the surface of what we cover throughout the Handbook. Plug in the players and salaries you're adding via free agency or trade to fill out key offseason needs. Setting Payroll Limits Of course, it's easy to say "Sign Scherzer, Gausman and Correa" as your grand plan for a dramatic offseason improvement. That'd be sweet. However, Minnesota's front office isn't realistically equipped with a blank check. You'll need to stay within a certain spending threshold, which means you've got finite resources, and must selectively choose where you want to allocate. The BUDGET field on the right side includes a dropdown menu, which you can use to set your own parameters. Do you think the Twins will realistically cut down significantly on spending in a rebuilding year? Then choose the "Big Cut" option and do your best with $32 million in available payroll. Think ownership will double-down on their championship aspirations and endorse a few big moves? Select a 10% raise. For what it's worth, Derek Falvey has indicated that he expects payroll to remain relatively steady, so the "Even" option ($130M) might be most probable. Let's See Your Offseason Blueprint! We'd love to see what you come up with! Once you've finished filling out your roster, take a screenshot and share it with us on social media or here on the Twins Daily Blogs! If you are one who took the front office to task for their misses in the previous offseason, here's a chance to back up the talk. Can you fix the Twins? Grab the Offseason Handbook and head over to TwinsPayroll.com – let's see what you've got! View full article

Thanks! The Twins don't view him as an everyday SS. I don't think any team would, really. He's not a strong defender there, and it's one of the most important positions on the field. At best it's somewhere he can play in a pinch. Also, he wasn't good this year. Do you really think his performance justified giving the starting SS job?

At a macro level, there is one overarching question that will dictate the front office's strategy this offseason: Are they actually pushing to contend in 2022? The answer will heavily influence the eventual payroll, their aggressiveness in free agency, and their tolerance for risk. But within this dichotomy, there are many micro-decisions that are interesting to unpack. The answers aren't yet clear, but will become so as the offseason progresses and the moves play out. In the Offseason Handbook (reaching your inbox in ONE WEEK if you preorder now!), we cover a wide array of options to address various needs via free agency and trade. However, before perusing these options, it's necessary to take a step back and figure out what the objectives are. Here are six questions the team must ask itself. The answers will bring focus to a presently hazy offseason agenda. #1: Are we grooming Royce Lewis to take over at shortstop, or do we need a long-term solution? With Andrelton Simmons' one-year deal expiring, the Twins are back to square one at shortstop. They seem disinclined to move Jorge Polanco back there, and Nick Gordon isn't a legit full-time option, so they'll be shopping this winter. The question is: to what degree? If they still believe in Lewis and his viability at the position, they'll likely aim at the lower end of free agency, seeking a short-term stopgap. In the Handbook, we divide the Free Agent SS class into two tiers, with the second featuring players who'd fit this purpose. But be warned: with the exception of Dodgers utilityman Chris Taylor, the second-tier names are not very appealing targets. If the Twins don't feel Lewis is the ultimate solution at short – either because his defense there isn't up to par or because his long layoff produces too much overall uncertainty – then they could try to get in on the high-end free agent action, with five different All-Star caliber shortstops hitting the market. It's rare that you see ever see this kind of talent up for grabs, which is why the Twins are under some pressure to make a call on Lewis. If he's not the guy, they might not get another chance like this to procure their next fixture on the open market. #2: Are we attempting to build a credible contending rotation, or are we intent on developing the pitching pipeline? There are plenty of intriguing names in the free agent starter class (we profile more than 50 in the Handbook), and the Twins will surely sign at least a couple. But again, the external approach here will be contingent on an internal decision, which directly links back to the overarching question cited at the outset. If the Twins are serious about investing and contending, they could be in play for someone like Justin Verlander or Noah Syndergaard, who offer proven ace potential and relative affordability coming off lost seasons. But they also carry a ton of risk. Only if guided by an adamant intention to contend would the Twins make a splash like that. Should they commit to a transitional year, it's very possible someone like Michael Pineda could be Minnesota's biggest rotation signing – more of a steady innings eater than a high-upside replacement for José Berríos and Kenta Maeda. In this scenario, the strategy would be more oriented toward building from within around Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober. The Twins do happen to have a ton of near-ready prospects to sort out, although health is a question mark with nearly all of them. Speaking of health question marks: #3: Do we trust Taylor Rogers to bounce back from his finger injury? In the Arbitration Decisions section of the Handbook, we break down a dozen different cases for arbitration-eligible players this year. No decision is tougher than Rogers, who's coming off an All-Star season that ended with a scary middle finger injury. He's projected to make around $7 million in his final year before free agency – a rather exorbitant price for a reliever, even without the looming uncertainty. If they're going to tender him, the Twins better have every confidence he can return to form next year, because that expense would deplete a sizable chunk of their resources. For a similar salary, you could likely land a more reliable closer from the free agent pool, such as Raisel Iglesias or Mark Melancon. And if Rogers is moving on, you almost need to go get a guy like that, because without him, the back end of this bullpen becomes a glaring weakness. #4: How much confidence do we have in controllable relievers who performed well last year? Lowering our gaze from the closer role, decisions around what's keepable from the 2021 mix will dictate the broader bullpen strategy. If the Twins have faith in a series of second-half performances that helped propel the Twins relief corps to a surprising 2.0 fWAR (11th in MLB) and 5.82 WPA (3rd in MLB) after the break, turnover in this unit could be fairly light. Alex Colomé is a critical crux point in this scenario. He posted a 3.51 ERA and 3.86 FIP after his nightmarish April, including 3.51/3.71 after the All-Star break. Not exactly a no-brainer to bring back on his $5.5 million option for 2022, even if you disregard the first month, but it's really a $4.25 million decision when you account for his buyout. If the Twins decide to move on from Rogers, they could theoretically just activate Colomé's option and plug him into the closer spot, although that's surely not a move that would generate much enthusiasm with fans. Then you've got Tyler Duffey, Caleb Thielbar and Jorge Alcalá. All three seem likely to return (Duffey and Thielbar are arbitration-eligible, Alcalá is still pre-arb so he'll cost around the minimum). But how will they be slotted into the hierarchy? Duffey was rather unreliable for much of the season but turned a corner after the trade deadline, posting a 2.05 ERA, 2.17 FIP and 28-to-6 K/BB ratio in 22 innings between August and September. The same pattern played out to a greater extreme with Alcalá, who entered August with a 5.27 ERA before putting up a 0.96 ERA, 1.78 FIP and 24-to-3 K/BB ratio in 18 ⅔ IP the rest of the way. Finally, there's Juan Minaya and Danny Coulombe. Both were minor-league signings who took opportunities and ran with them this year. Minaya posted a 2.48 ERA and 9.7 K/9 in 40 innings. Coulombe turned in a 3.67 ERA and 4.7 K/BB ratio in 34 ⅓. Each has a history of big-league success, so they're not total flashes in the pan. Each will also arbitration-eligible for the first time; it'll cost about $2 total million to bring both back. Theoretically, if the Twins decide to bring back all of the above players (Rogers, Colomé, Duffey, Thielbar, Minaya, Coulombe) they'd have six of eight bullpen spots filled, greatly reducing the work to be done this offseason. However, it's pretty easy to envision only three or four being retained, which would lead to a heightened reliance on the utter crapshoot known as relief free agency. #5: How will the designated hitter position be utilized going forward? For most of the past three years, the Twins have had a full-time DH in Nelson Cruz. He'll be available this winter (likely at a reduced cost following his post-trade drop-off in Tampa), as will a few other primary DH types like Kyle Schwarber. Internally, someone like Miguel Sanó or Brent Rooker might make sense. Of course, the Twins can also steer away from a regular designated hitter and leverage the position rotationally. This would open up a world of different possibilities, such as using Mitch Garver or Josh Donaldson as part-time DH, thus reducing their likelihood of getting injured while opening up more playing time for young players behind them (i.e., Jose Miranda and Ryan Jeffers). Using Luis Arraez there semi-regularly would be another option, protecting his balky knees and limiting his defensive exposure. #6: What to do with Byron Buxton? This is the biggest question of the coming offseason, no doubt. The Twins have three paths forward with regards to Buxton: trade him, extend him, or retain him with one year of service remaining. The last of those three seems least likely and the first seems most likely, based on the indicators we've received. But it's all on the table. Within the trade scenario, there is another decision that correlates directly with the "retool or rebuild" ultimatum: Are we looking to get back MLB-ready talent (maybe even a replacement center fielder) or seeking to increase the upside with younger, rawer prospects? Cody Christie has a feature story in the Handbook that breaks down the Buxton decision in depth. Suffice to say that it's a pivotal moment for the franchise and its future. Let's hear from y'all. Which way do you lean on these six questions, and which important ones did I miss? Share your thoughts in the comments. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Preorder the Offseason Handbook — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article