Nick Nelson

You recall the state of their pitching staff in 2016, right?? Who other than Erv looked like a major-league starter on that roster? We've already gone over what the pitching pipeline looked like at that point. The idea they can't contend next year is not only an overreaction to this season but an overreaction to the unbelievably disastrous first 6 weeks of this season. The Twins went 14-28 in their first 42 games and are since 34-37. With all that's continued to go wrong, they've basically been a .500 team over the span of 3 months. That's almost entirely without Byron Buxton who was the most valuable player in baseball before he got hurt. It's not nearly as inconceivable as you're making it out to be.

OK. You can look back in hindsight and claim all these pieces were in place, and things were inevitably going to turn around even if the same regime stayed here, but that's extremely speculative, reductive, and not supported by evidence. The previous front office repeatedly showed an inability to develop and maximize its own young talent, especially pitching, so why would we assume things would've played out the same way? You're going so far out of your way to minimize the impact of Falvey and his operation (which made significant changes in coaching and development approaches throughout the system) and it's weird. Again: the Twins lost the most games in baseball in 2016, as well as from 2011 through 2016 overall, and went 6 straight years without making the playoffs. It is not controversial in the least to say the franchise was in despair at that point in time. (I didn't say roster, or farm system, so please quit twisting the original statement to suit your argument.) You don't make an overhaul as radical as the Twins did if you're not in despair.

Yes. Of course there is. We've already seen the Twins make year-over-year improvements of 26 wins (2017) and 23 wins (2019) in this front office's short tenure. There's no reason they couldn't do something similar next year with better health and some good breaks. They've got the offensive pieces in place and a bunch of young arms verging on MLB-ready. Definitely need a few offseason hits on the pitching staff but I believe they're capable. I'm sure it felt at times in 2016 and 2018 like there was no path to contention but things can change in a hurry. We need to not lose sight of the forest for the trees, which is essentially the point of this post.

While it's a boogeyman term for some, analytics is essentially the systematic study and analysis of what happened to inform decisions. Which is why I feel good about this front office learning valuable lessons from this year. They will take a hard look at everything that went wrong and assess a path forward based on evidence rather than fanciful thinking (i.e., the plan after 2011's disaster).

I would add that they're also two of the most analytical front offices in baseball, whose operational models the Twins have clearly tried to mimic and whose talent the Twins have repeatedly plundered in trades. Which is an ironic element of some of the critiques I've seen. "These geeky over-analytic execs and coaches! Why can't they be more like the Rays?!" lol wut

And last year the Twins had the Cy Young runner-up + a bullpen that ranked third in MLB in WAR behind the two World Series finalists. Again: I'm not saying the Twins front office doesn't deserve criticism for blowing it this year, only that it needs to be tempered against their successes from past years.

I think it's fair to say a franchise that led all of baseball in losses the previous 6 years and coming off a season with the most losses in Twins history was lacking vitality and vigor. You could say their system was healthy at that time but... was it? Their top 10 in 2016 included Nick Gordon (#4), Tyler Jay (#5), Stephen Gonsalves (#6), Alex Meyer (#8), Kohl Stewart (#9) and Nick Burdi (#10). I think you're looking through a really rose-colored hindsight lens to suggest this franchise was in anything other than a dire state when new leadership took over. TR's front office had been rebuilding fruitlessly for half a decade.

The Minnesota Twins' front office blew it this year. There is no way around that, and no credible argument against it. But ultimately, it's one year. The number of statements from fans I've seen along the lines of "Clean house!" and "Fire Falvine!" and "These guys have no idea what they're doing" ... It demonstrates short-term memory at best. At worst? A bit of an entitled mindset. The Twins hired Derek Falvey (who hired Thad Levine) in the wake of a disastrous 103-loss season in 2016. By that point, the Twins had gone six straight years without making the playoffs, and during that span they lost more games than any team in baseball. The following year, Minnesota stunningly reached the postseason as a wild-card team. Then they missed out in 2018, still finishing second, before rebounding in 2019 with one of the greatest seasons in franchise history. The Twins followed in 2020 with another division title. To run all that back: this front office took over a team that had gone 407-565 (.419) with zero playoff appearances in its previous six years, and went 300-246 (.549) with three playoff appearances in the next four. Does their success owe somewhat to the foundation built before they arrived? Of course. No one would deny that Terry Ryan and Co. had cultivated an impressive nucleus before being ousted. But during those years, the Twins repeatedly failed in the draft, failed in acquisitions, and failed in player development. The results bore that out. Let's be clear about something here: This current regime was so successful and so impressive through four years that they were repeatedly poached of talent, both in the front office and the coaching staffs they assembled. Not only that, but Falvey and Levine themselves have been courted by big-name franchises like the Red Sox and Phillies. What did they say, according to publicized reports on the matter? "No thanks, we're going to see through what we're building here." And so, to see flocks of fans calling for their heads because of one bad season, which is no worse than the ones we saw repeatedly before they arrived ... it's a little hard to take. Falvey became the youngest head exec in the league when he took Minnesota's top job. Currently he is 38 years old, which is three years younger than the DH he traded to Tampa Bay last month. Up until now he never experienced serious adversity during his tenure, which speaks to how smoothly things have gone in the first four years. The same could be said, by the way, for his managerial choice Rocco Baldelli, who was named Manager of the Year in 2019 (as the youngest skipper in baseball, with no experience in the role) and then won a second straight division title in his second season. These people have shown their mettle. They've won. A lot. I realize they haven't won in the playoffs, and that sucks, but they haven't had nearly the opportunity of their predecessors. Are we not going to give them a chance to learn from failure? Obviously the free agent pitching additions from the past winter have failed at every level. But this front office has made plenty of good and savvy pickups in the past, which helped fuel the success of high-quality staffs the last two years. And in any case, Falvey wasn't really hired to sign pitchers. He was hired to develop them. On that front, the jury is still out. This operation was four years in when a pandemic came along and wiped out an entire minor-league season. The fact that Minnesota's upper minors are currently loaded with intriguing high-upside arms would suggest the mission was on track, and is just now getting back on the rails. Soon we'll start seeing those arms (along with the ones acquired at the deadline this year) ushered into majors, and at that point we'll be able to make real assessments. But until then, you're judging an incomplete project. This reassembled baseball ops department has been working ahead of schedule basically since they took over a moribund franchise in despair. They hit a setback this year, and it's been painful. Let's give them a chance to get back on track in the wake of a major disruptive event and humbling follow-up season. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

There's a risk here when it comes to giving Gordon "more seasoning" though. You're taking away opportunities from others to give to him. You're potentially clogging a 40-man roster spot throughout the offseason on the longshot hope that he turns a corner, which could lead to another Akil Baddoo situation. Gordon will be 26 and out of options next year. The Twins have basically run out of rope on developing him. I think that's the main disconnect a lot of people have with regards to his situation.

The first week of post-deadline baseball saw highs and lows for a reshaped rotation that now consists of 60% rookies. Ultimately, with help from the bats, Twins pitching was good enough to produce a winning week on the road against some solid competition. Let us review. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/2 thru Sun, 8/8 *** Record Last Week: 4-2 (Overall: 48-64) Run Differential Last Week: +2 (Overall: -73) Standing: 5th Place in AL Central (17.5 GB) Last Week's Game Recaps: Game 107 | MIN 7, CIN 5: Garver, Polanco Power Exciting Win Game 108 | CIN 6, MIN 5: Twins Comeback Falls Short Game 109 | MIN 5, HOU 3: Jax Earns First MLB Win as Starter Game 110 | MIN 5, HOU 4: Twins Rally from Early Deficit Game 111 | HOU 4, MIN 0: Lineup Has No Answers for Houston Pitching Game 112 | MIN 7, HOU 5: Polanco's 2 Homers Lift Twins to Series Win NEWS & NOTES Sidelined since early June by a bad hammy strain, Rob Refsnyder finally returned from the Injured List on Thursday, and has since resumed his role as semi-regular center fielder in Byron Buxton's absence. Refsnyder's activation led to Nick Gordon being optioned to Triple-A, which caused some consternation among fans who wished to see Gordon get a real shot. I get it. I like Gordon as a person and would love to see him succeed. It can feel hard to understand what's holding him back from more playing time on a bad team that's going nowhere. But this move makes it all the clearer how the Twins view him, and ... can you really blame them? While the speed is nice, Gordon has simply shown no signs that he can be an impactful contributor on a major-league team. He's a capable defender at several spots, but nowhere is he a standout, and the Twins seem to have zero interest in playing him at short. When you combine that defensive profile with a completely punchless bat, there isn't much value to be found. During his time in the majors, Gordon put 70 balls in play and recorded one barrel. He slashed .176/.263/.235 in his final 20 games. He lacks any discipline at the plate, offering at 45.8% pitches outside the zone, which is second on the team behind (of course) Willians Astudillo. It's not happening for Gordon this year. Now that doesn't preclude the possibility that he works his ass off during the winter, bulks up, and comes out next spring with a significantly bolstered skill set. We'll see if the Twins hold him on the 40-man roster and pursue that avenue. For now, the sad fact is that Refsnyder has a better chance of being a valuable contributor on the 2022 Twins. In other roster news of the week: Another right-handed reliever picked up off waivers. Just days after snagging Edgar Garcia following his DFA from Cincinnati, the Twins claimed former Astro Ralph Garza Jr., who was immediately optioned to Triple-A to join Garcia on the Saints. Garza, like many pitchers the Twins have added of late, has intriguing attributes and big strikeout rates in the minors, but also some clear flaws. There's no particular reason to think he or Garcia – discarded cast-offs from other organizations – will turn to anything useful. But then again, the same thing applies in the bullpen as in the rotation: the Twins are going to need help from the minors and every lottery ticket helps. It's a numbers game and the team is improving its odds. HIGHLIGHTS With veterans José Berríos and J.A. Happ departing at the deadline, Minnesota plugged in Griffin Jax and Charlie Barnes, who join incumbent rookie Bailey Ober in a suddenly very inexperienced rotation. It's quite the departure from Opening Day, when Berríos was their youngest starter. While veteran holdovers Kenta Maeda and Michael Pineda are interesting to track for their own reasons, the youth movement is now the central focus for the starting corps. None of the three rookies currently in the rotation are top prospects, but in the numbers game, it's all about letting them run and seeing if one emerges. This past week, the numbers showed some things to like from Jax and Ober: Jax spun 5 ⅓ innings of one-run ball in Houston on Thursday against the highest-scoring offense in the majors. (Albeit one missing several key bats.) He allowed only three hits and one walk in an efficient and impressive performance. Jax recorded zero strikeouts and only three swinging strikes in the outing, which is concerning, but he did pile up six strikeouts on 16 whiffs against the White Sox two starts prior, so he has at least shown the capability to miss bats. In his past three starts dating back to that one, Jax has a 1.88 ERA with six hits allowed in 14 ⅓ frames. Ober's start on Saturday was a mixed bag. On the one hand, we saw his strengths on display, with five strikeouts and one walk pushing his outstanding seasonal ratio to 56-to-15 ratio in 52 ⅓ innings. Ober's 3.7 K/BB ranks second among Twins starters behind Pineda. Ober also gave up two home runs in his five innings of work, surfacing his biggest weakness, but in general he too has been on a good track. In his past three starts, Ober has a 3.77 ERA and 15-to-3 K/BB ratio in 14 ⅓ frames. Several relievers also had strong showings as the bullpen rebounded from a very ugly run the previous week. Jorge Alcala allowed one hit (a home run) in three innings of work, striking out six of the 11 batters he faced. Alex Colomé worked four scoreless appearances and picked up three saves. Juan Minaya struck out eight over 4 ⅓ shutout innings between three appearances, allowing just two hits. On the offensive side, it was a relatively quiet week with a few standout performances. In spite of his barking knees, Luis Arraez continues to rake; he notched hits in every game he played and went 10-for-17 overall to raise his average to .318, which would rank sixth in baseball if qualified. Jorge Polanco drilled three more homers, and leads the American League in long balls over the past month. It's a remarkable turnaround from a player whose power had been totally sapped. Miguel Sanó did not have a particularly strong week overall, but he did make a game-saving defensive play at third on Friday night, and did this to a baseball on Sunday: LOWLIGHTS While Jax and Ober came through with encouraging performances, Barnes was less inspiring. Facing Cincinnati on Wednesday, the left-hander was knocked around for five earned runs on seven hits and two walks in four innings of work. Through two major-league starts he has a 6.23 ERA with three strikeouts and three walks in 8 ⅔ innings. He has induced only seven swinging strikes on 148 pitches between the two outings (5%). Barnes isn't embarrassing as a spot-starter type but it'd be nice to get someone in that fifth rotation slot with a little more upside. The Twins are slowly starting to get healthier in their starting pitching ranks, so maybe a few options will emerge in the coming weeks. Lewis Thorpe was activated from a lengthy IL stint and started Sunday for the Saints. Randy Dobnak was reportedly doing some "light throwing at Target Field" on Sunday morning, suggesting he's on the comeback trail. I realize these names aren't going to have folks leaping with excitement but they both have a better chance of factoring significantly into the 2022 rotation than Barnes. Brent Rooker cooled off following a red-hot start to his second stint with the Twins this year, going just 3-for-22, although he continued to flash power with all three hits going for doubles. Selectiveness at the plate will be the key thing to watch from Rooker, and he's leaving much to be desired in that area. He's not working into enough favorable counts and when at-bats end with pitchers ahead, he's just 1-for-29 this season. Alas, Rooker looks like an unstoppable offensive force in comparison to Andrelton Simmons. Anyone does. Simmons just continues sinking to new depths, with a 2-for-18 week dropping his slash line to a pitiful .216/.280/.275. His last extra-base hit came on July 2nd, 30 games ago, and since then he has a .355 OPS. There's no point in continuing to run him out there. Remaining money owed is unfortunately a sunk cost. The Twins would be better off sliding Polanco back over to short for the rest of the season and giving the reps at second base to someone like Arraez or Gordon or even Jose Miranda. TRENDING STORYLINE When they acquired him as the headliner in the Berríos trade, I wrote about why Austin Martin is a prospect very much worth getting excited about. Since the trade, he's been doing plenty to fuel the hype. Following a three-hit game for the Wichita Wind Surge on Sunday, Martin is now batting .400 with a .571 on-base percentage since coming over to the Twins organization. His eye at the plate is outrageously good, as illustrated by a 1-to-6 K/BB ratio in six games with Wichita. He has proven already to be a playmaker in the outfield and on the basepaths. Since the start of July, Martin has reached base in 52% of his plate appearances. That's no tiny sample. The idea of him complementing Arraez at the top of order, in front of a proven pack of power hitters, is beyond tantalizing. How far is it from becoming a reality? Next year seems likely, and maybe even from the start. But in order to make Martin a viable candidate for Opening Day, the Twins will need to take some preparatory steps. I'll be quite curious to see if he joins the club as a September call-up, or at least gets a late-season look in Triple-A. His defensive profile makes Martin an especially intriguing piece in the team's planning. Could he take over in center field if Buxton is traded this offseason? Maybe Martin steps in at second with Polanco pivoting back to short. Or perhaps, as I posited in my theoretical 2022 lineup on Twitter, left field is Martin's best initial entry point into the majors. LOOKING AHEAD It bums me out to look ahead at the schedule right now. If things had gone as planned, this would've been an absolutely crucial and thrilling stretch: The Twins, returning home from their longest road trip of the year, face off against the White Sox, Rays, and Cleveland, in consecutive series at Target Field. Could you imagine the stakes and intensity if Minnesota was in contention?! Alas, they are not. So all we can really look forward to is the return of Nelson Cruz to Target Field in another uniform. Hooray. MONDAY, 8/9: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Lucas Giolito v. LHP Charlie Barnes TUESDAY, 8/10: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – LHP Dallas Keuchel v. RHP Griffin Jax WEDNESDAY, 8/11: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Lance Lynn v. RHP Bailey Ober FRIDAY, 8/13: RAYS @ TWINS – LHP Shane McClanahan v. RHP Michael Pineda SATURDAY, 8/14: RAYS @ TWINS – RHP Michael Wacha v. RHP Kenta Maeda SUNDAY, 8/15: RAYS @ TWINS – LHP Josh Fleming v. LHP Charlie Barnes MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

The Twins traded away three pitchers on deadline day, including their best starter. Now, the team moves ahead with the directive of establishing a new identity, minus a franchise fixture. Read on for our recap of a week that saw big roster shakeups, along with encouraging showings from young pitchers and key hitters. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 7/26 through Sun, 8/1 *** Record Last Week: 2-4 (Overall: 44-62) Run Differential Last Week: -4 (Overall: -75) Standing: 5th Place in AL Central (18.0 GB) Last Week's Game Recaps: Game 101 | MIN 6, DET 5: Twins Lose Rogers, Win Roller-Coaster Game Game 102 | DET 6, MIN 5: Late Lapse from Robles Leads to Loss Game 103 | DET 17, MIN 14: Twins Fall Short in Offensive Slugfest Game 104 | STL 5, MIN 1: Offense, Bullpen Can't Back Up Jax's Strong Outing Game 105 | MIN 8, STL 1: Pitching and Power Propel Twins to Victory Game 106 | STL 7, MIN 3: Sloppy, Sleepy Play Sinks Minnesota NEWS & NOTES The Twins made one of their most significant deadline "sell" moves in franchise history on Friday, trading José Berríos to the Blue Jays for a pair of Top 100 prospects in Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson. It's a tough loss but a major haul, as Martin and Woods Richardson arguably now become two of the top three prospects Minnesota's system. Berríos made his Jays debut on Sunday, pitching six shutout innings. Getting used to the sight of him in a Toronto jersey will take some time. The front office made a couple other smaller-scale moves on Friday, dealing J.A. Happ to St. Louis for MLB reliever John Gant and minor-league lefty Evan Sisk, as well as Hansel Robles to Boston for pitching prospect Alex Scherff. Surprisingly, that was the extent of their movement on deadline day. Josh Donaldson, Andrelton Simmons, Byron Buxton, and – most inexplicably – Michael Pineda all stayed put. Taylor Rogers would likely have been among the departing players if not for a finger injury suffered earlier in the week that landed him on IL. The issue was described as a sprain and it's not clear how long Rogers will be sidelined – very possibly the rest of the year. Beau Burrows replaced him on the active roster. Another new arm joined the organization, beyond the many acquired in trades: Edgar Garcia, who was claimed off waivers from Cincinnati. He was optioned to St. Paul but should presumably get a look in the big-league bullpen later this season. Finally, Luis Arraez was activated and Gilberto Celestino sent to Triple-A. HIGHLIGHTS The Twins seem fully committed to giving Brent Rooker a very real look here in the second half of the season, and so far he's taking advantage. Recalled the day after Nelson Cruz was traded, Rooker has since started every game, and has been the No. 2 hitter in eight straight. The past week saw him doing damage from the damage spot, collecting eight hits in 24 at-bats including a double and a pair of homers. Perhaps most importantly, he struck out only three times against three walks. Previously he had a 22-to-1 K/BB ratio as a big-leaguer. We know the power is going to be there for Rooker, who leads the organization in home runs with 23 between Triple-A and the majors. But his overall impact at the plate, and ultimately his value as a player, will be dictated by an ability to draw walks and hit for a decent average. We've seen promising signs on that front since his return. Some other noteworthy batting performances in a big week for the offense: With Cruz gone and Donaldson dealing with another leg injury, Jorge Polanco has become the clear focal point of the lineup. He batted leadoff or third in every game last week and was a consistent threat, finishing 11-for-28 with seven runs scored. In a season full of disappointment, Polanco's rebound has been a much-needed positive development. Miguel Sanó also finds himself breaking free of a prolonged slump that stretched back to last year. He had an absolute monster week, going 9-for-23 with two homers, two doubles, and nearly as many walks (6) as strikeouts (7). He posted a .253/.349/.480 line in July after slashing .254/.280/.507 in June. Much like Rooker, the key for Sanó is not so much the home runs as what he does in between, so it's very nice to see his average hanging in the .250 range and the patience coming back. Twins catchers collectively drove in 14 runs in the six games, with Mitch Garver and Ryan Jeffers chipping in grand slams on consecutive days. Garver just continues to do his thing, boosting his OPS up into the vicinity of .900 which seemed unthinkable early in the year. Jeffers getting on track offensively is very nice to see; with two walks and three homers in his two starts, he lifted his OPS by 73 points last week alone. While it's nice to see the offense clicking again, what we'll really be looking for in these final two months is positive signs on the pitching staff – particularly from those who can play a role next year and help offset the critical loss of Berríos. Griffin Jax took the ball in JB's place on Friday night, and delivered an impressive performance with five innings of one-run ball against the Cards. The following night, Bailey Ober delivered four stellar innings, allowing one run on four hits and one walk while striking out six. Charlie Barnes, recalled to fill Happ's vacated roster spot, will likely take his turn in the rotation on Wednesday. These aren't top prospects, but they're MLB-ready arms with good minor-league track records. What kinds of roles could they play on a reshaped 2022 staff? These three and others should have plenty of chances to make their cases the rest of the way, although Rocco Baldelli must balance the need to carefully manage workloads (as we saw with Ober, who was pulled after just 64 pitches on Saturday). LOWLIGHTS Things did not go well for the Twins bullpen last week. On Monday night, the team took a two-run lead into the ninth and turned to its All-Star closer. Unfortunately, Rogers had to exit during the first plate appearance, and in came Alex Colomé, who promptly gave up a single and a home run to tie the game. The Twins did end up winning in 10. They weren't so lucky the following night, when Robles amazingly managed to blow a four-run lead in the ninth by serving up a grand slam to Detroit's Eric Haase. Wednesday was the lowlight of the season for Minnesota's staff, which coughed up 17 runs against a mediocre Tigers offense. Burrows and Juan Minaya combined to give up eight of those runs in six innings of relief, after Happ surrendered nine in his three-inning start. The final appearances from Happ and Robles as Twins could hardly have gone worse, making it all the more surprising that takers for either (let alone both) stepped up on the trade market. Alas, they're gone, and soon enough Colomé, Burrows and Minaya will follow them. It's tough to get too worked up about struggles from guys who have no future here. Trevor Larnach, conversely, does have a future here, and hopefully a very long and successful one. For now, he continues to deal with growing pains as a rookie facing the league's adjustments. Baldelli remains committed to playing him almost everyday, but has bumped Larnach down to the lower part of the lineup as his skid persists. The last week saw him go 3-for-22 with nine strikeouts and one walk. In the month of July he slashed .191/.252/.266 with 43 strikeouts and just seven walks. Reputed as a disciplined hitter with a knack for putting bat to ball, Larnach is clearly out of sorts. It's jarring to see him striking out 40% of the time. One wonders if the slumping will reach a point where the Twins feel a return to Triple-A might be in order, but it doesn't feel like we're quite there yet. TRENDING STORYLINE The Twins need to start getting a grasp on what they're going to do with the bullpen going forward. There will be no shortage of innings to go around with Robles shipped out and Rogers out indefinitely. How long before Triple-A relievers with legitimate potential – such as Yennier Cano, Jovani Moran, and Ian Hamilton – are called up for a look-see? None are presently on the 40-man roster, but clearing up space shouldn't be too difficult. Garcia, acquired off waivers last week, also should be in line for an imminent call-up. With the game outcomes no longer mattering, one of the most productive things the Twins can do in the remainder of this lost season is gain any kind of clarity around what they have going forward in their embattled relief corps. Presently the outlook for that unit is bleakly uncertain, especially with Tyler Duffey's dramatic drop-off this year. LOOKING AHEAD Their longest road trip of the season rolls into next week as the Twins travel to Cincinnati and then Houston. Maeda will have an opportunity to hit and run the bases on Tuesday, which he's surely excited about. Official starters have not yet been announced for Wednesday and Thursday, but I'm assuming Barnes and Jax fill the rotation spots of Berríos and Happ. TUESDAY, 8/3: TWINS @ REDS – RHP Kenta Maeda v. RHP Tyler Mahle WEDNESDAY, 8/4: TWINS @ REDS – LHP Charlie Barnes v. RHP Luis Castillo THURSDAY, 8/5: TWINS @ ASTROS – RHP Griffin Jax v. LHP Framber Valdez FRIDAY, 8/6: TWINS @ ASTROS – RHP Bailey Ober v. RHP Zack Greinke SATURDAY, 8/7: TWINS @ ASTROS – RHP Michael Pineda v. RHP Luis Garcia SUNDAY, 8/8: TWINS @ ASTROS – RHP Kenta Maeda v. Lance McCullers Jr. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

Personally I'm not all that surprised. He always had it in him, and showed flashes during his time here. Nice to see Gibby pull it all together.

Yep, I think you're correct on all counts.

The Twins traded away their top pitcher on Friday, but in return, they might've gotten back a new top prospect. Make no mistake: Austin Martin is a phenomenal talent and one of the best young players in the game. These five facts will help explain why he's a worthy deadline centerpiece. 1. Some felt Martin was the top player in last year's draft class. The Vanderbilt star ended up going to the Jays fifth overall, but plenty of outsiders (and I would imagine some insiders) viewed him as the best player available in the 2020 draft – both before and after it took place. CBS Sports had Martin ranked No. 1 on their board ahead of the draft, one spot ahead of Arizona State's Spencer Torkelson, who ended up going first overall to Detroit. Months later, when The Athletic's Keith Law put together his preseason top prospect rankings for 2021, he remarked: "The best prospect in the 2020 draft class slipped to the Blue Jays, who picked fifth." This appears to be a fairly common sentiment, and it's not hard to see why analysts and evaluators would be high on Martin's potential. He had a monster collegiate career, marked by standout athleticism, defensive versatility, steadily increasing power, and ridiculous bat-to-ball skills. (In his COVID-shortened junior year, he struck out twice in 69 plate appearances.) "This bat at a skill position is pretty unusual and gives him some MVP upside," said Law in his writeup. 2. Most prominent prospect publications now view him as the Twins' best prospect. In our recently released midseason top 30 prospects update, we had Royce Lewis ranked as Minnesota's top prospect, which reflects the industry consensus now that Alex Kirilloff has graduated. Some outlets still view it that way – MLB Pipeline has Lewis ahead of Martin, though it's close (No. 13 versus No. 16 in the overall top 100 rankings), and FanGraphs has Lewis ranked No. 32 compared to Martin at No. 59. That's one virtual tie, and one outlier. The rest of the big pubs view Martin more favorably than Lewis, and often by significant margins. Law's preseason rankings for The Athletic had Martin at No. 14, and Lewis at No. 46. (Law's updated midseason top 50 saw Martin move up to 12, with Royce not appearing.) Baseball America has Martin ranked 21st, and Lewis ranked 60th. Baseball Prospectus likes them both, but also gives Martin the edge: their preseason rankings had him at No. 22 with Lewis at No. 31, and the midseason top 50 bumped Martin up to 20 with Lewis sliding off. Said BP in their latest blurb on Martin: "There are too many ways he can provide value to a team for abject failure to be a possibility." It's difficult to assess the two in comparison right now. Martin is a 22-year-old getting his first taste of the majors at Double-A, whereas Lewis is out for this whole season and hasn't played since 2019. The bottom line is that they're both really high-caliber prospects and the Twins have a very healthy system with these two at the top. 3. He could end up filling one of several positions of uncertainty for the Twins. One of the most intriguing things about Martin is his defensive fit. Like Lewis, his future in the field is uncertain, but as with Royce, that's not because he's bad with the glove – quite the contrary. Martin can play several different positions well, which is surely something that drew the Twins to him. This year at Double-A, he has split time evenly between shortstop and center field. By the end of his career at Vanderbilt, he was playing primarily third base. Hmm... what are the most glaring positions of uncertainty for the Twins going forward? Well, there's center field, where Byron Buxton is heading into a walk year, and shaping up as an offseason trade candidate. Then there's shortstop, which is essentially unspoken for after Andrelton Simmons wraps his one-year deal. Oh, and let's not forget third base, where 34-year-old Josh Donaldson is a chronic injury risk and also could be shipped out next winter. Perhaps Martin's future is not as a full-timer at any one spot. The Twins love their flexibility, and it's probably not by accident that their top two position prospects embody such a quality. As R.J. Anderson wrote in Martin's pre-draft profile for CBS Sports: "A creative team could maximize his value by having him split time between the infield and the outfield, a la Whit Merrifield and Scott Kingery, among others." 4. He posted a .500 on-base percentage over 76 plate appearances in July for the Class-AA New Hampshire Fisher Cats. Martin's pro career got off to a bit of a slow start, but he's improved with each passing month. May: .265/.378/.353 June: .284/.402/.432 July: .296/.500/.352 Yes, you read that right: Martin reached base in 50% of his plate appearances this past month. Sandwiched in their was an appearance at the 2021 Futures Game, where he batted second and started at shortstop. You'll never guess: he reached base both times up. This speaks to Martin's offensive strengths. He's a natural-born lead-off hitter, with tremendous discipline, solid speed, and a knack for finding knocks. In his July slash line we also see Martin's biggest current shortcoming: the .352 slugging percentage – just one double and one triple in those 76 plate appearances. But the 22-year-old is still growing into his body and most scouts agree that power will come, and on-base skills like this are a lot rarer in today's game than slugging prowess. 5. He's the best minor-league talent the Twins have acquired in decades. I mean, time will tell whether this ACTUALLY proves to be true. But if you look at prospect rankings and available evidence when moves were made, it's hard to find a precedent for the Twins making an acquisition like this. The closest example would have to be Delmon Young, who was viewed as one of the best prospects in baseball before the Twins traded Matt Garza for him, but he'd already played a season and change in the big leagues. (Not a great precedent, obviously, but Martin and Young are polar opposites as players.) Outside of that, who would even qualify in this discussion? Carlos Gomez was the centerpiece of the Johan Santana package, and was highly regarded as a prospect but not on the level of Martin. (Gomez ranked No. 52 according to BA and No. 65 according to BP when the Twins acquired him, and also, he'd already played some in the majors.) How far back do you have to go to find a real comp for Martin? Back before the days of prospect rankings really even being a thing, I would think. The bottom line is, this organization has rarely ever brought in a prospect of this caliber because they've rarely been willing to do what it takes to land one. In Martin, the Twins added a true prize with legitimate franchise-altering potential. Now that's how you sell at the deadline. It doesn't take away the sting of losing a cherished fixture in Berríos, but makes it a whole lot easier to stomach. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

Twins Daily writers live-streamed and reacted live as Friday afternoon's trade deadline arrived, interacting with fans in real-time as news broke. You can watch the full show below. Nick, Seth and Matthew break down a busy trade deadline, sharing thoughts on the José Berríos, J.A. Happ and Hansel Robles deals. You can catch future live streams by following our YouTube, Twitter and Facebook channels. View full article

Right. It's definitely not a "blank check" situation, and it's possible Buxton's camp is just totally uninterested in a reasonable accord (I did see La Velle tweet "they think the agent is determined to bring him to free agency"). But the reported "improved" offer from the Twins is just so far away from even the parameters you laid out.

Extension talks have fizzled between the Twins and Byron Buxton, and media reports on the matter have a sense of finality to them. It appears Buxton is heading for free agency, if not departing via trade before then. I adamantly believe this is a mistake that will haunt the franchise for years to come. But it's not too late to reverse course. In Minnesota baseball lore, David Ortiz is the equivalent of Boston's Bambino, or Wrigleyville's billy goat. The very mention of Big Papi causes a visceral shudder for any Twins fan within earshot, surfacing deep feelings of regret and lament. How differently things might have gone for the Twins had Ortiz stayed in Minnesota. (Aaron Gleeman wrote a fun "what if" article about this last year.) Naturally, the Ortiz example is invoked any time a promising Twins player departs unduly – the sports fan's equivalent of a PTSD reaction. Lingering fear of a recurrence envelopes us, clouding our judgment. In most cases, this apprehension proves unwarranted. Nonetheless, the Curse of Papi persists. You all know where I'm going with this: Is Byron Buxton the next David Ortiz?? In some ways, it's a fitting parallel. Ortiz left Minnesota in his late 20s, having shown flashes of standout ability, before immediately blossoming elsewhere. In Boston, he emerged as a perennial MVP contender, postseason legend, and franchise icon. It's all too easy to envision the same path for Buxton, except therein lies the difference: you don't need to imagine it. Buxton already IS that guy. He was the AL Player of the Month in April and has been one of the game's best players on a per-game basis for the last three years. After a long and meandering path, he has finally reached his true potential as a top-shelf elite MLB player. Yes, the injuries have remained a constant. But that's exactly why a long-term extension with Buxton would even be attainable right now for a team like the Twins. If not for the implications and associated risk of his health history, he'd likely be eyeing a deal outside of Minnesota's realistic scope. It might seem odd when you're talking about offering more than $100 million to a player whose track record is as sparse as Buxton's, but the Twins should theoretically be able to secure a relative bargain here due to the circumstances. Alas, the front office seems a tad too ambitious in its hunt for a bargain. The allure of signing Buxton long-term is that he can offer a potential impact on the level of a Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, or Fernando Tatis Jr., but at a fraction of the guaranteed commitment. That said, the clear value needs to be there for Buxton, who knows his level of ability, and it is evidently not. His camp rejected Minnesota's offer, which reportedly elevated from $73 million to $80 million in guaranteed money with a "unique incentive package." Sounds like those incentives were the sticking point. At this juncture we don't what was proposed or countered, so analyzing the negotiation is murky. Then again, it's also difficult to fathom what kind of request or suggested terms from Buxton's agent would make the Twins balk to the point they're giving up on an opportunity to secure this generational talent, at the precipice of true superstardom. A somewhat similar dynamic is at play with José Berríos, who was drafted the same year as Buxton and is also looking ahead to free agency at the end of 2022. One can certainly argue that Berríos is more critical to the Twins' future, given their scarcity of high-quality arms. But in a way, he is the antithesis of Buxton: ultra-reliable with a capped ceiling. Berríos has been one of the most durable and consistent pitchers in the game – steadily very good, just short of great, always available. Meanwhile, Buxton has improved every season in a setback-riddled career that's been full of ups and downs. He's just now reaching his full form, displaying game-changing greatness that is almost unparalleled. Yes, Berríos will be difficult to replace, in that arms like his don't come along often. The Twins certainly haven't proven adept at finding or developing them. But Buxton is irreplaceable in a more absolute sense. Athletes and human beings like him almost NEVER come along. His speed, power, and defense are off-the-charts good. He's one of the most entertaining players I've ever seen. And he's still getting better. I can see the rationale in moving on from Berríos. He's clearly intent on testing free agency and maximizing his earnings. There will be no discount or bonus-contingent contract in play there. And it's awfully hard for a mid-market team to build balanced contending rosters when paying one of their five starting pitchers $25+ million annually. Their everyday center fielder, though? One who's proven to be an MVP-caliber talent while on the field? And who won't even be reaching that salary range unless he's staying on the field enough to trigger incentives? I'm struggling to understand why the Twins aren't stepping up here. Target Field was ostensibly built for the exact purpose of keeping a player like this. From available evidence, it doesn't seem like the team is making a particularly hearty effort to do what it takes to retain him. Whatever Buxton's side is asking for – $30-plus million in annual achievable salary, an early opt-out clause, lower-than-desired bonus thresholds – none of those should be deal-breakers. Maybe there's still a way. Buxton said on Monday "it's not the end," leaving some faint cause for hope. But at this point, the outlook is grim. It's true that signing Buxton long-term would entail some risk. But it pales in comparison to the risk of watching him go elsewhere, shake off the snakebitten injury luck, and emerge as a late-blooming legend while Twins fans spend another decade lamenting the one that got away. In this case, it'd be a much less excusable gaffe than releasing David Ortiz. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

This lineup -- with no Cruz, Buxton, Kirilloff, or Arraez -- is not good. And the pitching staff is worse. No manager would have this team succeeding.