Nick Nelson

It's a risk that exists with any pitcher, of course. I'd be more anxious about it with these two if there were clear signs of over-performing. But these guys both dominated throughout the minors, and they both had spectacular K/BB rates, which to me is one of the most straightforward indicators of sustainable effectiveness. Both Ober and Ryan were homer-prone and I could see that getting out of control. That's the biggest red flag for me. But it's true of many pitchers today, and not just young ones.

Continuing our rankings of the most valuable player assets in the Minnesota Twins organization, we share our picks for six through 10. This list attempts to answer a simple question: Which 20 players and prospects are most indispensable in the team's quest to win a championship? Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports Continuing our rankings of the most valuable player assets in the Minnesota Twins organization, we share our picks for six through 10. This list attempts to answer a simple question: Which 20 players and prospects are most indispensable in the team's quest to win a championship? Before getting started, you can get up to speed on the ground rules, which were covered in the first installment, and also read up on our picks for #11-15. Here are the players we've ranked so far: 20. Matt Canterino, RHP 19. Josh Winder, RHP 18. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP 17. Gilberto Celestino, CF 16. Chase Petty, RHP 15. Jose Miranda, 2B/3B 14. Jhoan Duran, RHP 13. Jordan Balazovic, RHP 12. Trevor Larnach, OF 11. Luis Arraez, UTIL From there, we crack into the top 10. Top 20 Twins Assets of 2022: 6 through 10 10. Ryan Jeffers, C 2021 Ranking: 7 Two-way catchers are among the most valuable commodities in baseball. It's not yet clear that Jeffers will be one, but his young major-league career has offered promising signs. Defensively, Jeffers established himself as a strong pitcher framer and good overall backstop. His instincts and reaction speed enable him to make special plays. He seems to have the confidence of the pitching staff – no small feat for a 24-year-old who went from college to the majors in two years. Offensively, his rushed development has been evident. After an impressive rookie showing in 2020, Jeffers saw his OPS drop by 120 points as lacking plate discipline derailed his production. But while the .199 average and .270 on-base percentage were tough to stomach, Jeffers kept bringing the power with 14 home runs in 85 games. At worst, Jeffers looks like a good defensive catcher who can take one deep here and there. (A poor man's Salvador Perez, perhaps?) If he can evolve a bit in the batter's box, he'll become a highly coveted asset – the heralded two-way catcher. It's important to keep in mind Jeffers' age and experience; when Mitch Garver was 24, he was posting a .688 OPS in Single-A. 9. Max Kepler, RF 2021 Ranking: 3 Kepler is an average hitter and an elite defensive right fielder with a very favorable contract. That combination would have more value to a lot of other teams than it does to the Twins, who wouldn't mind spending on an outfielder and already have a top-notch defender in center. A persistent inability to turn the corner offensively – outside of a short-lived breakout in 2019 – has made Kepler a frustrating player to follow. But when you look past that, he's an excellent athlete and quality regular, still a year short of 30 and under team control at reasonable rates for the next two seasons, with a $10M option in 2024. 8. Mitch Garver, C 2021 Ranking: 8 Garver's struggles with the bat in 2020 carried over into the beginning of 2021, where he slashed .151/.196/.321 through 17 games while striking out half the time. As the catcher's incredible 2019 faded further from view, many began to wonder if his approach was broken. Maybe it was, but Garver fixed it in a hurry. He homered twice in his last game of April, and pretty much never looked back, hitting .292/.406/.584 with 11 homers and 12 doubles in 51 games the rest of the way. Garver rediscovered his plate discipline, and as soon as that happened, he got back to dominating and basically out-homering the world (on a per-rate basis). It was a second consecutive season for Garver that was cut short by injuries. The punishment he's taken behind the plate, along with the increasingly evident need to have his bat in the lineup, could compel the Twins to start shifting Garver to different positions more. But that needs to be weighed against the tremendous advantage gained by writing him in at catcher. Since 2019 Garver ranks second among all MLB backstops in wOBA (min. 500 PA). He'd be higher on this list if not for his waning team control, with free agency only two seasons away. 7. Joe Ryan, RHP 2021 Ranking: NR Managing to secure Ryan in exchange for Nelson Cruz ahead of the trade deadline was a nifty bit of work by the front office, and one that probably doesn't get talked about often enough. As a 40-year-old designated hitter approaching free agency, Cruz had limited value, but the Twins leveraged Tampa's situation and were able to add an asset that immediately becomes a key part of their plans. The 25-year-old Ryan dominated at Triple-A this year, and translated his performance to the majors. In five starts for the Twins, he struck out six times as many batters as he walked, and allowed only 16 hits in 26 ⅓ innings. The right-hander cemented his spot in a needy rotation, and he's lined up to be an inexpensive fixture for years to come. All in return for an aging and expensive DH who didn't really help the Rays that much, and is now a free agent. In terms of asset upgrades, it doesn't get much better than what the Twins pulled off here. 6. Bailey Ober, RHP 2021 Ranking: NR Like Ryan, Ober is a newcomer to the rankings and finds himself near the top. But unlike Ryan, he's not a newcomer to the system. The former 12th-round draft pick boosted his stock immensely over the past couple years by significantly increasing his velocity to shed the "soft-tossing" label. Aided by a more effective fastball, which plays up from his 6-foot-9 frame, Ober was highly impressive as a rookie. There was nothing particularly fluky about his performance for the Twins, although home runs were a bit of a recurring issue. He looks the part of a mid-rotation staple, and a guy you'd feel okay about starting in the playoffs. We've seen how difficult it is for the Twins to acquire impact pitching via free agency. Developing cost-controlled arms is instrumental to this front office's vision for success. That's why Ober and Ryan rank so highly on this list: the team's fate (especially in the short-term) is tied to them. Check back in on Wednesday when we wrap up these rankings with our picks for the top 5! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Order the Offseason Handbook — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

Dear journal, It's been 35 days since darkness fell upon the world of baseball. A new year is upon us, and under normal circumstances we'd be looking ahead eagerly to the start of spring training in a few short weeks. Alas, there is no end to this lockout in sight. Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp, Twins Daily Dear journal, It's been 35 days since darkness fell upon the world of baseball. A new year is upon us, and under normal circumstances we'd be looking ahead eagerly to the start of spring training in a few short weeks. Alas, there is no end to this lockout in sight. Reports emerged last month indicating that MLB and its Players Association were not expected to start talking core economics until January. We're here now, and still no movement is apparent. Bob Nightingale tweeted on Monday that "no negotiating sessions [are] currently scheduled" between the two sides. Seemingly determined to further tarnish his own tattered reputation while presiding over the first labor stoppage in three decades, commissioner Rob Manfred made waves this week by dropping the axe on Ken Rosenthal, one of the finest sports reporters in the biz, over perceived negative coverage. Rosenthal will no longer appear on MLB Network, though thankfully his exceptional work can still be found via FOX and The Athletic. Speaking of exceptional reporters, the latest writeup from Jeff Passan of ESPN opens up with this burst of sunshine: The first month of the lockout was largely unnoticeable to me amidst the bustle of the holiday season, but now I can feel my irritation growing and compounding. Manfred and the league are doing nothing to engender sympathy or support with their lack of urgency and bizarrely adversarial actions. To keep my mind off that whole stagnant situation for the time being, I'm focusing on Twins-related distractions. I've been putting together my annual top 20 Twins asset rankings, and rolled out part 1 (16 through 20) and part 2 (11 through 15) this week. I'm excited to dig into the top 10 next week. I'm also excited about a new podcast/video series project that I've been working with the team on. More details on that soon. For now, these serve as sufficient diversions. But as the month of January progresses and the traditional reporting date for pitchers and catchers grows nearer, it'll be harder and harder to ignore the elephant in the room. Before long, we'll be looking at an inevitable delay to spring training, and Opening Day will enter the crosshairs. How much more bad press will Manfred and the league manage to attract by then? View full article

I mean, he played all of 10 games after returning to Triple-A. He did have an injury, and it wasn't undisclosed: he mentioned being bothered by a foot injury for much of the summer, and one wonders if this played a role in the team shutting him down for all of September (ostensibly due to a hand contusion). One year ago Larnach was a top 100 prospect in baseball according to Baseball America, MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus (top 40 according to BA!). I understand why folks are down on him, but ranking him any lower than 12th on this list would feel like a major overreaction to me.

Continuing our rankings of the most valuable player assets in the Minnesota Twins organization, we highlight our picks for 11 through 15. This list attempts to answer a simple question: Which 20 players and prospects are most indispensable in the team's quest to win a championship? Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck, USA TODAY Sports (Jose Miranda) Continuing our rankings of the most valuable player assets in the Minnesota Twins organization, we highlight our picks for 11 through 15. This list attempts to answer a simple question: Which 20 players and prospects are most indispensable in the team's quest to win a championship? Before getting started, you can get up to speed on the ground rules, which were covered in the first installment. Here are the players we've ranked so far: 20. Matt Canterino, RHP 19. Josh Winder, RHP 18. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP 17. Gilberto Celestino, CF 16. Chase Petty, RHP From there, we dive into the top 15. Top 20 Twins Assets of 2022: 11 through 15 15. Jose Miranda, 3B/2B 2021 Ranking: NR The system's shining star of 2021. Since being drafted in the second round back in 2016, Miranda always seemed on the verge of a breakout, and last year it finally came. In 127 games between Double-A and Triple-A, he slashed .344/.401/.572 with 30 homers and 94 RBIs. The infielder's emergence was no accident. Similar to former Twin (and fellow Puerto Rican) Eddie Rosario, Miranda is gifted with amazing bat-to-ball skills, which can lead to overly aggressive tendencies. In 2021, the 23-year-old turned a corner that Rosario never really did. "At instructs last fall, our guys worked with Jose on the value of hard contact, of going deeper into counts if it meant getting a better pitch,” Derek Falvey told Phil Miller. “He saw the advantage of patience.” That's not to say drawing walks was a strength for Miranda. He's an aggressive hitter who wants to swing, and in 2021 he did damage. So much that it's impossible to dismiss as a one-off outlier from a perennial underperformer. The infielder's bat is legit. The question is HOW legit, and where will he settle in defensively. 14. Jhoan Duran, RHP 2021 Ranking: 12 In the last installment, I talked about the clustered grouping of minor-league pitchers at the back end of this list. As a composite, they're pivotal to the franchise's future, but individually, none have separated all that much. Duran and Jordan Balazovic are the pitching prospects in this system that have separated. Duran's demonstrated upside may exceed that of Balazovic, but injuries hold him back as an asset. In 2021, Duran was able to throw only 16 total innings, with an elbow strain costing him nearly the whole season. Surgery was not deemed necessary, and that hopeful sign keeps him relatively high on this year's rankings. With Brusdar Graterol gone, there isn't a more powerful arm in the system. It now seems more likely than ever that Duran will follow Graterol's path and wind up as a flamethrowing reliever, but he can bring huge value in that role. 13. Jordan Balazovic, RHP 2021 Ranking: 13 While he didn't avoid the injury bug entirely, missing the first month with a back issue, Balazovic held up better than most pitching prospects in 2021's return to action. He set a career high with 97 innings, and threw well at Double-A: 3.62 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 9 HR allowed in 20 GS. The fact that 97 IP marked a new personal record shows how slowly Balazovic has come along from a workload standpoint. Drafted back in 2016, he has accrued only 325 total innings as a pro. He's still very much on a starting pitcher track, but it's going to take some time to build his stamina to the level of a traditional SP workload. Maybe that's not what the Twins have in mind. 12. Trevor Larnach, OF 2021 Ranking: 10 Coming into the 2021 season, Larnach was one of the Twins' most outstanding outfield prospects. His debut brought forth both sides of that descriptor: "outstanding" and "prospect." During his first few weeks in the big leagues, Larnach looked like a natural, working counts and driving the ball with authority. Before long he was routinely batting third in Rocco Baldelli's lineups. Then, we were reminded that Larnach is a 24-year-old whose development was rushed by circumstance. While not quite as out-of-place in the majors as Gilberto Celestino, Larnach was definitely called up out of necessity, having only three Triple-A games under his belt after a lost year. To his credit, he handled it well, for a while. Through 32 games and 118 PA, Larnach was slashing .273/.390/.434 with a 29% K-rate. In the next 47 games and 183 PA, he'd slash .193/.279/.298 with a 38% K-rate. He further struggled after returning to Triple-A. It's hard to get a true feel for where he's at, and how heavily we should weigh the flaws that dragged him down after that good start. I tend to lean toward favoring his pedigree, reputation for adjustments, and raw skill. Larnach remains a crux piece for this organization going forward. 11. Luis Arraez, UTIL 2021 Ranking: 11 Many won't like to hear it, but this is a very generous ranking for Arraez. He's extremely popular and beloved among fans – understandably so – but there are a number of factors detracting from his value as an asset. First, there are the bad knees. They've frequently forced him off the field, and hobbled him while playing. Not a great long-term indicator for a 24-year-old. Then there is the lack of defensive impact. He's not above-average anywhere he plays, maybe not even average. Also, Arraez hasn't hit for any power, having turned in a paltry .376 slugging percentage last year. It feels necessary to get these drawbacks out of the way, only because anyone who's watched him knows Arraez is special. He has rarefied bat-to-ball skills, and a keen eye at the plate. His on-base proficiency is key to making a power-driven Twins lineup run. Arraez has a .313 average and .374 OBP through three big-league seasons. Those numbers speak for themselves. Though he's not great defensively at any one position, Arraez's ability to hold his own at several could be viewed as a major strength. I'm just not sure it's one that fits well with the Twins and their current situation. Will they trade him? Check back in next week for Part 3, where we'll crack into the top 10 of our rankings! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Order the Offseason Handbook — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

With the arrival of a new year, it's time to update my annual rankings of the most valuable player assets in the Minnesota Twins organization. This list attempts to answer a simple question: Which 20 players and prospects are most indispensable in the team's quest to win a championship? Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge (Simeon Woods Richardson) With the arrival of a new year, it's time to update my annual rankings of the most valuable player assets in the Minnesota Twins organization. This list attempts to answer a simple question: Which 20 players and prospects are most indispensable in the team's quest to win a championship? Before we get started, a quick overview of the ground rules: Things that are factored into these rankings: production, age, upside, pedigree, health, length of team control, favorability of contract, positional scarcity (within the system, and generally). Players are people. Their value to the organization, and its fans, goes well beyond the strictly business-like scope we're using here. But for the purposes of this list, we're analyzing solely in terms of asset evaluation. Intangible qualities and popularity are not factors. The idea is to assess players' importance to the future of the Minnesota Twins. In this regard, it's not exactly a ranking in terms of trade value, because that's dependent on another team's situation and needs. With that said, the ability to bring back assets in a trade is a major factor. This is a snapshot in time. Rankings are heavily influenced by recent trends and where things stood as of the end of 2021. Current major-leaguers and prospects are all eligible. The ultimate goal here to answer this question: Which current players in the organization are most indispensable to fulfilling the vision of building a champion? Before diving into our latest rankings, feel free to check out the last few years so you can get a baseline: Top 20 Twins Assets: 2018 Top 20 Twins Assets: 2019 Top 20 Twins Assets: 2020 Top 20 Twins Assets: 2021 With that out of the way, let's get started. Top 20 Twins Assets of 2022: 16 through 20 20. Matt Canterino, RHP 2021 Ranking: NR The back end of this list was extremely challenging to put together. Basically all the candidates are high-upside pitching prospects who are nearing major-league readiness: Canterino, Cole Sands, Drew Strotman, Chris Vallimont, Blayne Enlow, Louie Varland, etc. As a group, this collection is absolutely essential to the franchise's future, but individually, they kinda blur together. It's hard to differentiate and rank them. I elevated Canterino because I think he's a slight cut above the pack. His stuff is incredible and has produced absurd results in a limited pro sample – 1.13 ERA, 14.3 K/9, 0.63 WHIP with 18 hits allowed in 48 innings. But injuries restricted him to six starts in 2021, and he's made only 13 total since being drafted in 2019. If he can get healthy there's a little doubt he'll skyrocket in these rankings, but at age 24 the time is now to make it happen. Canterino recently told Nash Walker that it's "all systems go for 2022." 19. Josh Winder, RHP 2021 Ranking: NR Winder sits in that stable of intriguing near-ready arms alongside Canterino et al. He's relatively advanced, having reached Triple-A in late 2021, and was added to the 40-man roster this offseason. Like Canterino, this right-hander's velocity has risen dramatically over past couple years, along with his stock. Winder is poised to make a more immediate impact than anyone else in this tier because he's already so close. And if his minor-league track record is suggestive, that impact could be significant. In the most recent season, Winder posted a 2.63 ERA and 80-to-13 K/BB ratio in 72 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. Our Lucas Seehafer just wrote up a scouting report on Winder, drawing a loose comparison to former Twin Scott Baker. 18. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP 2021 Ranking: NR Another quality pitching prospect who has reached the upper minors but still has much to prove. Comparatively, Woods Richardson has a bit more prestige – he's a former second-round draft pick (#48 overall, in 2018) who appeared in the top 100 overall prospect rankings from both Baseball America and MLB.com in each of the last two years. He was also a costly acquisition for the Twins, comprising half of the package they received for trading José Berríos at the deadline. The team's investment in him raises the stakes on Woods Richardson's development. Despite the fact he's already reached Double-A, the righty is still only 21 years old, so there's ample time left for him to realize his potential. A big, imposing, broad-shouldered presence on the mound, he oozes projectability. 17. Gilberto Celestino, CF 2021 Ranking: NR A lot of Twins fans are underrating Celestino. This is understandable, since he was terrible in his major-league debut last year, slashing .136/.177/.288 in 62 PA with a -0.7 fWAR. The 22-year-old was not nearly ready for prime time, and the team knew that, but they had little choice as their CF depth evaporated. I wonder how differently Celestino might be viewed right now if he was never called up out of desperation. He was a good prospect coming into 2021 – ranking 11th in our preseason rankings – and hit .290/.384/.443 in 49 games at Triple-A. As a center fielder who was young for the level, that's quite strong. Celestino shapes up as long-term Byron Buxton insurance at least, or maybe even an impact trade chip. 16. Chase Petty, RHP 2021 Ranking: NR All we know about Petty is that he's a highly-touted teenage pitcher with standout velocity plus a promising slider, and the Twins liked him enough to use their first-round pick on him in July. That seems especially notable for a risk-averse front office that has largely trended toward drafting college players with its high draft picks. Petty offers plenty of promising traits to justify his selection at #26 overall, and he showed well during a very brief pro debut, striking out six of 21 batters faced with one walk at rookie ball. But the data we have to go on is incredibly limited. We should learn a great deal more about him in 2022. Check back later this week when we continue the rankings with Part 2. In the meantime, feel free to share your thoughts on these players and where they're ranked in the comments. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Order the Offseason Handbook — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

If you can throw strikes and miss bats in the majors I feel pretty good about your chances of having at least moderate success. Mejia and Romero never quite nailed down the "throwing strikes" part. How often have we seen a rookie pitcher (let alone two) come through and have the kind of K/BB success that Ober and Ryan did?

Dear journal, It's been 28 days since darkness fell upon the world of baseball. As the start of a new year bears down, this feels like a good time to reflect, and to look forward. Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp, Twins Daily Dear journal, It's been 28 days since darkness fell upon the world of baseball. As the start of a new year bears down, this feels like a good time to reflect, and to look forward. A big theme for me in the past year, and especially the past week, has been gratitude. During the Christmas holiday, I was able to spend time with numerous family members and close friends — in person. Maybe not as many as I would under "normal" circumstances but it was a seismic improvement over 2020, when these interactions largely took place through a computer screen. I wasn't going to take that for granted. I doubt I ever will again. One of the few silver linings to emerge from this awful pandemic is a renewed sense of perspective and awareness. You don't know what you've got til it's gone. As I look back on the 2021 Twins season, I'm struck by the same feelings. Around the All-Star break, I wrote up a post reflecting on the best and worst first half ever. It sort of summarizes my sentiments on the season as a whole. In terms of the product on the field, it sucked. The team was incredibly disappointing, and managed to effectively eliminate itself from contention by Memorial Day. There were heartbreaking defeats, devastating injuries, and seemingly endless setbacks. At the same time, to even HAVE a product on the field, and to be able to watch it live, in-person, surrounded by my baseball-loving brethren, was reinvigorating. I went to more games at Target Field than in any season before. I savored each moment in the ballpark, even as my favorite team spiraled before my eyes. A road trip to Kansas City with the wife in early June probably best epitomized my experience as a Twins fan in 2021. The six-hour cruise down I35 is one of our favorite summer traditions, and another that went conspicuously amiss in 2020. Arriving in time for a series opener between the Royals and Twins, we strolled into Kauffman Stadium on a gorgeous Friday night. After grabbing a couple of local beers, we found our way to our seats with the first inning already underway. Once we sat down, Matt Shoemaker had already given up three runs. By the end of the inning, that total would be nine. Like the Twins season as a whole, this game was really never competitive. In fact, it was at times kind of embarrassing (particularly while in hostile territory!). But you know what? I still enjoyed the hell out of it. The surrounding fans were never mean-spirited or contentious. We were all just happy to be back at the ballpark. While I very much want the Twins to get back to playing better baseball next year, the more immediate concern is whether (and when) they'll be playing baseball at all. Which brings us back to this whole lockout business. Things remain stagnant on the CBA front, as expected. Negotiations are understandably set aside during the Christmas and New Year's stretch. But once we've rung in 2022, the vibe will quickly change. Suddenly, the scheduled start of spring training is only six weeks away, with dozens of free agents unsigned, and Minnesota among many teams whose needs are largely unaddressed. Going forward, dear journal, I suspect these missives will grow more urgent and less forgiving. But for the time being, I'll happily put my energy toward celebrating the end of a weird year, and embracing my deep gratitude for everything it brought back. View full article

Dear journal, It's been 21 days since darkness fell upon the world of baseball. Despite a total lack of news or activity from the realm of MLB, Twins fans are finding ways to generate lively discussion and spirited debate. Here in the holiday season, I find it rather heartwarming. Like the Whos of Whoville singing and celebrating in defiance of the greedy Grinch. Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp, Twins Daily Dear journal, It's been 21 days since darkness fell upon the world of baseball. Despite a total lack of news or activity from the realm of MLB, Twins fans are finding ways to generate lively discussion and spirited debate. Here in the holiday season, I find it rather heartwarming. Like the Whos of Whoville singing and celebrating in defiance of the greedy Grinch. On the latest episode of the Gleeman and Geek podcast, Aaron and John lamented the Twins' lack of significant action before the lockout. They were echoing the sentiments of fans far and wide, who are underwhelmed by the club's lack of urgency and glaringly incomplete current product. I know I found myself nodding along. Inspired by that conversation, I wrote up a blog post examining the front office's mindset and rationale. We're all frustrated with what appears to be a major missed opportunity at the high end of the free agent market. I wanted to understand why. The best theory I can come up with, which I outlined, is that the Twins are seeking to maintain maximum flexibility with a long list of pitching prospects who are about ready for a shot in the big leagues. The pipeline this regime has been building and cultivating for half a decade is ready to start producing, and they want to see what they've got. They need to, in fact. That's not to say they are done. The Twins will have work to do when things fire back up, and no one denies it. But I do see some logic in the reluctance to pursue expensive multi-year deals for veteran starting pitchers. That article sparked a lot of good discourse, with nearly 100 comments nesting beneath. Beyond the enjoyable chatter with Twins fans on TD and Twitter, I've had other tangentially baseball-related diversions to lean on this past week. Seeing our friend, and MLB.com Twins beat writer, Do-Hyoung Park compete on Monday's episode of Jeopardy! was an absolute thrill. He made us all proud by giving the dominant Amy Schneider a run for her money. Speaking of Twins writers, I had a chance to grab beers with John Bonnes and Dan Hayes the other night, which led to plenty of jokes, laughs, and diatribes over baseball and beyond. Chatting with Dan served as a stark reminder that – while I might be bored and annoyed by the lockout drama as a fan – it's a whole different level when your entire job is dedicated to covering a shuttered team. For me, the stoppage has been mostly unnoticeable, in part because of the above diversions and in part because MLB tends to be very quiet in the latter half of December anyway. We'll see how long the remains true, because we still seem to have a long road ahead. It sounds like the league and union don't even intend to start getting into the meat for their negotiations until after the new year. Tension and discontent will likely start rising around that time. But right now, 'tis the season for none of that. And so I wish a warm Christmas and holiday season to you, journal, along with anyone who might be reading. View full article

Exactly this! I picked the AL Central because, well, that's the division the Twins are trying to win, and the teams they compete against most frequently. But I also picked it because those teams operate on somewhat similar financial footing. It is utterly irrelevant to say "Look, the Yankees/Dodgers/Astros signed a big free agent pitcher, why don't the Twins??" Those teams operate in a completely different context. So many people act like throwing money at free agent pitching is some surefire path to contention or getting over the hump. From my view there is just no real evidence of this being true, at least for a team like the Twins.

That sure is a long-winded way of not answering the question!

The goalposts haven't shifted. The plan has always been to develop pitching as a means to success. The Twins rebuilt their infrastructure around that philosophy. They made outside-the-box coaching and front office hires. Falvey was hired away from Cleveland on this basis, and he was always going to be judged ultimately on the merits of his pitching development system. The goalposts are the same. I don't know why you act like this is such a radical idea. When was the last time an AL Central champion was propelled in any significant way by a big free agent starting pitcher? Serious question. As for the bit about "rationalizing sitting out an offseason and wasting a year," this is is what I'd call moving the goalposts. No one is out here defending the notion of sitting out the rest of the offseason and making no more significant additions. And that isn't going to happen. The article is specifically addressing the team's choice to bypass the top tier of free agent starting pitching.

I wasn't specifying them? When I say "You can't treat their development cycle like a typical 24/25 year old's" I meant typical as in pre-2020. The same applies to any minor-leaguer. 25 is the new 23, if you will,

I don't think that's a fair way to look at it. They missed an entire minor-league season and then had to try to build back up the following year. You can't treat their development cycle like a typical 24/25 year old's. I do think that point underscores the urgency of getting them looks in the near future, however. The widespread injuries, to me, are the foreboding concern. But you've gotta believe some of these guys will see their lack turn around on that front after last summer. And I wonder how many of the IL trips/shutdowns were the result of extreme caution, given the circumstances.

The offseason is not over folks! Not even close. Just want to make sure we're all aware of that.

Fair points. I didn't really mean to frame it as a 1:1 comparison, more so just an example of a Twins team that's been able to overcome low expectations and compete with a young rotation. But your final statement is hard to deny. If some of these young pitchers catch on and the team contends, we may look back and wish the front office did more. (That said, I still fully expect multiple significant pitching additions before the season.)

They were basically all injured, and/or trying to build their stamina back up after the lost season. That's kind of the underlying point in this post ... the lost season in 2020 was hugely disruptive to prospect development so last year was basically spent getting everyone back on track. That's why the coming season feels pivotal. Now it's go time.

There's been a lot of frustration expressed over the Twins and their unwillingness to spend on free agent pitching. I share that frustration. I'm not going to defend it here. I'm just going to try and explain the likely reasoning behind it. Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge (Jordan Balazovic) There's been a lot of frustration expressed over the Twins and their unwillingness to spend on free agent pitching. I share that frustration. I'm not going to defend it here. I'm just going to try and explain the likely reasoning behind it. Aaron Gleeman penned a great piece for The Athletic last week addressing the team's hesitance to spend on pitching. This has been a trend for years, and now has become a glaring oddity, given the severe need for rotation help. Unless they sign Carlos Rodón (unlikely), it is clear the Twins have actively decided to bow out of the high-end free agent pitching market this offseason. They had money in hand, and yet they let every frontline type fall off the board, with no signs of serious pursuit. Why? Part of it undoubtedly ties to a fundamental aversion to risk, but I think there are deeper strategic underpinnings. When you look at the organization's pitching pipeline, and the number of MLB-ready arms that need to be evaluated, it becomes a bit easier to understand the desire for extreme flexibility. A pipeline ready to pay off It's no secret: this front office was brought in to develop pitching. That was Cleveland's specialization when Derek Falvey was there, and it's been a calling card of successful mid-market organizations over the years. There seems to be a sense that Falvey has fallen short in this regard, but we're judging an incomplete picture. Realistically it takes around five years or so to draft-and-develop a pitcher. This regime had a minor-league season wiped out by COVID in their fourth. When you look at the proliferation of intriguing arms in the system that are approaching MLB-readiness, the plan appears to be on track following a jarring disruption. All of these pitching prospects could feasibly be listed with an ETA of 2022: Jordan Balazovic, RHP (23 next season) Jhoan Duran, RHP (24) Josh Winder, RHP (25) Cole Sands, RHP (24) Chris Vallimont, RHP (25) Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP (21) Drew Strotman, RHP (25) Matt Canterino, RHP (24) Louie Varland, RHP (24) When I say these are "interesting" pitching prospects, I don't mean, "These are guys with raw stuff who could put up numbers if they figure things out." They've all put up numbers. In some cases, ridiculous numbers. Most of them have reached the high minors, and nearly all are at an age where good prospects tend to take the big-league step. Are the Twins viewing 2022 as a season to fully evaluate the quality of these pitchers and assess the strategy they've been developing for half a decade? It seems that way to me. What to expect after the lockout If this theory is correct, it doesn't mean the Twins are going to stand idly and let Dylan Bundy be their only pitching addition. None of the prospects mentioned above will be ready to go out of the gates, barring an unforeseen spring development. But it does mean they'll likely continue to avoid larger investments in pitchers, and the commitments those entail. I wouldn't be surprised to see them sign one or two of the better mid-tier starters remaining – say, Zack Greinke or Michael Pineda – and then round out the staff with a bunch of hybrid starter/reliever types who can contribute bulk innings while offering some upside. I outlined what a model might look like in practice back in early November. This model would be ideal for gradually bringing along young rookie starters in a controlled setting. You're not asking them to go out and throw six innings every fifth day, which none are physically built up to do. You're simply asking them to let loose and impact games. Maybe even win some games. Is this a "rebuild"? Falvey has bristled at the notion his team is headed for a rebuild in 2022. "I'm not using that word," he told reporters. Is he off base? Even if the approach I've put forth above is accurate, I think it's fair to steer away from such a characterization. "Rebuild" implies having no real aspiration to contend, but rather starting anew with a long-term scope. The Twins aren't starting anew. They're sticking with the rebuilding plan that's already been in place throughout this front office's tenure. These internally-developed arms were always going to the hold the key to Falvey and Thad Levine's vision for a sustainable winner. It's time to get a gauge on the validity of that vision. A prototype to follow Looking back through franchise history, we can find a pretty decent parallel for what a youthful takeover of the rotation could look like: the 2008 season. That season, too, had the makings of a rebuild on the surface. Minnesota traded Johan Santana for prospects during the previous offseason, while letting Torii Hunter walk. They didn't go out and make any big moves in free agency. The rotation ended up being led by Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey, and Glen Perkins. Of those four, only Baker had more than 100 innings of major-league experience coming into the campaign. All were between 24 and 26 years old. Ironically, the biggest misstep by the front office that year was signing Liván Hernández under the pretense that this young group of starters needed a veteran leader. Hernández posted a 5.48 ERA over 23 starts before being cut in August to make room for Francisco Liriano – another young starter who rounded out the youth-led rotation. That youth-led rotation proved very capable. The Twins came within a game of a postseason berth, thanks in part to a solid offense led by a pair of MVP contenders in Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer. The 2022 Twins offense, led by Byron Buxon, Jorge Polanco and others, will have a chance to win if they get any help from the pitching. Why can't that help come primarily from the internal pipeline? It's happened before. A learning year Despite my efforts here to understand and justify the front office's lack of aggressiveness on the pitching market, I can't deny that the youth movement plan is a long shot. For every example like the 2008 Twins, there are plenty more where inexperience doomed a young rotation. But I'd argue that even in that scenario, the coming season can be a valuable one. They can throw numerous guys into the fire, take stock of what they've got, and assess their needs going forward more accurately. Ideally, they'll add at least one more moderately good free agent starter and another impact arm via trade, so as to improve their odds and lessen the total reliance on unknowns. But as a general course of action, I don't hate the idea of letting the pipeline produce. It's not the start of a rebuild. It's the summation of a rebuild that was initiated six years ago when Falvey and Levine first took over. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Order the Offseason Handbook — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article