Nick Nelson

Great comments and discourse y'all. I've really enjoyed reading all the thoughts.

As we all know, the current Twins front office has had some whiffs when it comes to offseason pitching pickups. Addison Reed, Lance Lynn, J.A. Happ, Matt Shoemaker and Alex Colomé are names that come to mind. While recency bias – primed by those last three names – might lead one to believe this leadership can do no right, that isn't the case. In looking at some of their most successful acquisitions, perhaps we can identify a formula for getting back on track this offseason. With a lens on 2022, we're judging these acquisitions in terms of immediate impact, so we'll rank them by the fWAR (Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement) in their first season after coming aboard. These are the seven names that stand out. 1. Michael Pineda, 2019 (2.6 fWAR) Signed as a free agent (2 years, $10M) This wasn't actually the first year after Pineda came aboard, because Minnesota signed him ahead of the 2018 season, knowing he'd miss most or all of it while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Once Big Mike was ready to get rolling in 2019, he was every bit the rock-solid mid-rotation starter they sought, posting a 4.01 ERA over 146 innings while leading the team to a 16-10 record in his starts. His PED suspension in September soured the overall season, especially because it prevented him from being able to make an impact in the playoffs (and led to Randy Dobnak starting Game 2). But all that aside, he was a key part of the team's success in 2019, and continued to provide value to the team after re-signing on another two-year deal, posting a 3.57 ERA between 2020 and '21. Takeaway: Patience is a virtue. The Twins were willing to commit money up-front and wait out Pineda's surgery rehab, and it has paid dividends for three years since. 2. Jake Odorizzi, 2018 (2.5 fWAR) Acquired from Tampa Bay in trade The Rays were looking to unload Odorizzi's salary ahead of the 2018 season. Finding a lack of demand in the market, they settled for a trade with Minnesota that brought back middling shortstop prospect Jermaine Palacios. It was a mystery to me why Tampa couldn't get more for Odorizzi, who posted solid numbers in 2017 and had two years of control remaining. Maybe it was the timing of the move, just before spring training. One could purport he fell into the Twins' laps, but alas, they made the move and no one else did. They were glad it was them. Odorizzi was once again solid in 2018, becoming a much-needed veteran fixture in a rotation that ended up getting nothing from Ervin Santana in the final year of his deal. (In fact, the condition of Santana's surgically-repaired finger when he showed up in camp was likely the primary driver of this move in the first place.) Of course, the real value in Odorizzi's acquisition came the following year, when he blossomed as an All-Star with 4.3 fWAR. Takeaway: If you're willing to take on salary from a small-market team, you can sometimes take advantage of weird desperation moves late in the offseason. 3. Kenta Maeda, 2020 (2.1 fWAR) Acquired from Los Angeles in trade Ranking Maeda third on this list doesn't do him justice. He is easily the most successful pitching acquisition by this front office. If you extrapolate his performance from the pandemic-shortened 2020 season into a 162-game sample, he'd have registered a 5.7 fWAR, which is Cy Young territory. (Accordingly, he finished runner-up in the AL Cy Young voting.) But to keep things consistent, we'll place him here, and it's fitting in a way, because he wasn't as much of a pure value-add as the two above. Whereas the additions of Pineda and Odorizzi cost the Twins only a bit of money and a dispensable minor-leaguer, acquiring Maeda required the organization to part with its top pitching prospect, Brusdar Graterol. Takeaway: Pay to play. The Twins' most impactful pitching acquisition during this regime has also required the greatest sacrifice. 4. Martin Perez, 2019 (1.9 fWAR) Signed as a free agent (1 year, $3.5 million) I know, I know. Many of you are rolling your eyes and scoffing at the notion of Perez as a "successful" acquisition. For what it's worth, I'd agree with you, and so would Baseball Reference's WAR calculation would agree with you (it had him at 0.1). For whatever reason, FanGraphs' version of the metric is charitable toward his 2019 season even though he posted a 5.12 ERA and 4.66 FIP, unraveling after a strong start. I will say this much: Perez took the ball every fifth day and did enough for an offense-driven club to go 17-12 behind him in 29 starts. Realistically that's probably the kind of thing we need to hope for from a Twins fourth or fifth starter next year. Moreover, while his poor results in 2019 were plain to see, Perez nevertheless found a new home in Boston the following offseason, and has made 48 appearances (34 starts) for the Red Sox over the past two years, not including his four appearances in the most recent ALCS (!). The Twins saw something in Perez and it's hard to say they were entirely wrong. Takeaway: This was an analytics play. The Twins were intrigued by Perez's late-season velocity jump in 2018, and by his experimentation with a cutter. They were onto something – his cutter held opponents to a .269 wOBA in 2019, during which he posted career-high strikeout and swing-and-miss rates. That just didn't end up being enough to offset his shortcomings. 5. Tyler Clippard, 2020 (0.8 fWAR) Signed as a free agent (1 year, $2.75 million) The last three names on this last will have the same caveat applied as Maeda: their performances came in a shortened season, so the cumulative WAR comparison is not apples to apples. Clippard's 0.8 fWAR would've been pretty decent for a regular full season (Tyler Duffey was worth 0.8 fWAR this year), but when projected to 162 games he'd have been at 2.2, which is like, prime Joe Nathan territory. Clippard did everything for this bullpen. He opened, he closed. He was effective against righties and lefties. He threw strikes, he limited hits, he kept the ball in the yard. Clippard was everything you could ever want from a free agent reliever signing, albeit in an abbreviated sample. Takeaway: The free agent relief market is volatile, but sometimes when you take an inexpensive flier on a veteran who's been consistently good for many years, it works out. 6. Rich Hill, 2020 (0.7 fWAR) Signed as a free agent (1 year, $3 million plus incentives) We can't fairly extrapolate Hill's 2020 season in quite the same way as we can the others. He was recovering from elbow surgery and wouldn't have been available until June or July even if the season started on time. The late start enabled him to join the rotation out of the gates, and he proved to be a quality asset at the back end, posting a 3.03 ERA in eight starts. Nothing special, but for such a low-cost investment, this is exactly what you hope to extract. Takeaway: Like with Pineda, the Twins were rewarded for their patience. They were willing to pay up-front and wait out an elbow rehab. Sometimes that type of willingness can be a differentiator for mid-market teams seeking impact pitching talent. 7. Matt Wisler, 2020 (0.6 fWAR) Claimed off waivers from Seattle Wisler was waived by Seattle after posting a 5.61 ERA in 2019, then the Twins snagged him and watched him put up a 1.07 ERA over 25 ⅓ innings in 2020. It's the kind of fix-up we were hoping to see frequently from this front office, and seemingly a recipe they tried to replicate in 2021 with pickups like Brandon Waddell, Ian Gibaut and Shaun Anderson – to little success. Takeaway: The Twins love to find a slider they feel they can unlock and unleash. In this case, they were right on the money. In others, maybe not so much. This speaks to the hazardous nature of gambling on fringy talent discarded by other organizations. ~~~ So what did we learn here? What kind of insight can we extract from looking at these seven acquisitions from the past four offseasons? A few things strike me. Patience reaps rewards. The Twins were willing to wait on Pineda and Hill. This played to their advantage. Looking at the current market, one could apply this thinking to someone like Kirby Yates (rehabbing from Tommy John surgery last March) or James Paxton (TJ surgery in April). Either one of these free agents could offer massive upside at a relatively low price. By the way, the patience factor also applies to the rhythm of the offseason itself, because this front office pulled off two of its best trades (Odorizzi and Maeda) in February. Rely on analytics to fill the fringes. Say what you will about Perez, but there was validity to the uptick detected in his arsenal. As a low-cost addition at the back of the rotation, he worked out fine. Wisler was a lower-tier bullpen cog, so his emergence was more of a luxury than a necessity, but it sure helped. So long as the Twins are making these kinds of bets in non-essential roles, I hope they'll keep making them. Go big or go home. While this front office has made several good pitching acquisitions, only one could be described as a true immediate slam dunk, and that's Maeda. The Twins needed an ace to slot in front of José Berríos – a monumentally tall task – and they managed to do it. The cost was a brilliant young arm in Graterol. We haven't seen this regime make such an aggressive bid for high-end starting pitching outside of that trade. The only starter they've signed to a multi-year deal is Pineda, which has turned out pretty well but was altogether low-stakes (in both cases). Their interest in Zack Wheeler was well known, and that obviously would've been a big hit if they could've made it happen. Will the Twins find a way to entice a top-tier target of their choosing this winter? The need has never been greater. Hopefully this front office can learn from what's worked – and what hasn't worked – during their first five years, and course-correct after a failed previous offseason. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Order the Offseason Handbook — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

Actually this rule was never put into effect. I kind of doubt it will be.

I don't think anyone's actually suggesting the usage would be this rigid. Theoretically guys like Ryan and Ober will still go 5 innings frequently. There will also still be shorter-burst relievers like Alcala and Duffey for the late innings. Mostly the concept here is about shifting away from the idea that a SP has to go 5+ innings or it's a failure. Instead, you can plan around frequent short starts or piggyback situations. The way this plays out in practice would be fluid. But I think with a 14-man staff you can accommodate it.

The problem is that it's not always easy to determine which situations they're best suited for. Some pitchers spend a large portion of their careers being misused. There aren't many who've even been tested in a McHugh-type role so it's hard to say how they'll take it to it, which is why this is a bit experimental and risky. There's a big reason it's not THAT risky, though: For all their variations, one thing that is almost universally true for pitchers is that they;re better against hitters the first time facing them in a game compared to the second or third time.

Arbitration and baseball in general are moving away from valuing pitcher "wins" because we can all see they're a team-based stat -- not meaningful indicators of individual performance. Pitchers will go where they can make money and succeed. As the game evolves, teams will start paying more for roles that are deemed impactful. I could see these kinds of multi-inning/hybrid types earning more on average than the typical 1-inning setup man or scrap heap back-end starter (Shoemaker et al.) so it may become somewhat appealing for players. When the 2019 season ended, the Twins had Berrios penciled in for the 2020 season and that's it. Gibson, Pineda, and Odorizzi were all free agents.

It's developing a method to get effective pitching results in the interim while you wait for the prospect pipeline to start providing. Again, as I said earlier: I don't think it's fair to judge this regime on on the merits of its systemic pitching development yet. It took 5 years after Berrios was drafted to reach the majors and he was terrible his first year. This is Year 5 for the current front office. If nobody from the Winder, Duran, Canterino, Balazovic, Strotman, Woods Richardson etc group pans out you'll have a point.

A few people have made comments along these lines and I think it's on point. What I presented in the article is a vision for a more extreme version of this model, but I think the sweet spot might lie in the middle: commit 2-3 rotation spots to more traditional starters who can go 5-6 regularly, but use the last couple as sort of "extended bullpen games" on a regular basis. And this kind of plan can always stay flexible over the course of the season. Maybe some guys step up and show they can be counted on to get through the lineup 2-3 times. Maybe a prospect comes up with workhorse qualities. The problem is, with all the pitching talent in the Twins' system, I don't see a single guy who is realistically equipped to do that.

So you're telling me that taking pitchers and implementing changes to make them more effective does not qualify as "developing pitching." I'd love to hear your definition! Yes, it's about bringing young players up through your system but development is an ongoing focus throughout a player's career. When the Twins brought in Matt Wisler and turned him into a high-quality RP, that was a development success. When Cleveland traded for a no-name prospect named Kluber and made him a Cy Young winner, that was a development success. Tampa Bay has enjoyed a number of development successes with older & more established pitchers, and it's a big part of why they are successful. This front office was not brought in to sign $150M starters in free agency. They were brought in to think creatively, find opportunities, and get more out of players. That's the kind of thinking this article is framed around. They had basically one proven starter on their MLB roster going in to the 2019-2020 offseason. Worked out fine. (shrug) The reason they have zero starters going into this one is because they traded Jose Berrios for prospects at the deadline, making a short-term sacrifice for a perceived long-term gain. Agree or disagree with the move, I'm not sure how you could describe it as anything other than "forward thinking"?

This is a fair point, because Gant's definitely a perfect fit with the model we're discussing here, but I think bringing him back at the arb price was a nonstarter. Wouldn't shock me at all if the Twins end up re-signing him for like 1.5-2M.

They have developed pitching. There are few if any teams in baseball with more quality arms awaiting at the top level of their system. In evaluating them on this front, we can't underestimate the disruptive impact of 2020's canceled MiLB season on health, routines, timelines, etc. It takes 4-5 years to develop pitching from scratch (which is largely what they had to do) and that was Year 4. Part of the appeal in this plan is that it becomes easier to bring those prospects along in a carefully managed way that also portends more immediate success (because the guys can lean more on their best pitches, not face lineups multiple times, etc.). Also, what we're talking about here is taking fringy arms (Griffin Jax, Lewis Thorpe, or free agents like Garrett Richards) and making them more effective by altering their roles and usage. Isn't that the definition of developing pitching?

Great point. Yennier Cano another example, pitched 2.0+ innings in 15 of his 30 appearances for St. Paul this year. You almost wonder if they've been building toward something like this for awhile and we just haven't noticed...

As the Twins embark on the daunting offseason task of building their 2022 pitching staff nearly from scratch, it's worth wondering if their forward-thinking front office might step outside the box and take a nontraditional approach. A revealing recent quote from general manager Thad Levine leads one to believe it's a path they're considering. Earlier this week, Dan Hayes of The Athletic penned a piece sizing up the monumental challenge ahead of the Twins as they seek to fill the top three spots in their rotation from the outside. The end of the piece includes this quote from the Twins GM, which really caught my attention: “I think with the challenge comes opportunity,” Levine said. “We’re going to be as creative as we can be in terms of not being necessarily hemmed into the notion of it has to look exactly the way it has always looked. We may end up looking at this from the lens of how many multi-inning guys can we add to a staff and how far does that take us?” While Levine's allusion is not overly specific, one could take it to mean the Twins are envisioning a staff filled with "hybrid" pitchers – not quite starters, but not traditional one-inning relievers either – stringing together nine-inning games, without the expectation of one guy throwing six or seven. This is, in some respects, the direction baseball is trending, and it's been very noticeable in recent postseasons. For a team in Minnesota's position, embracing this revolution fully would make a lot of sense. Here are some reasons why: Free agent starting pitchers are expensive and hazardous. Mid-market teams like the Twins rarely play at the highest level because it's tough to be outbid resource-intensive (not to mention more appealing) heavy hitters, and because getting it wrong on a guy you commit $100+ million to can really set you back. As Hayes notes in his article, the Twins face an especially tough challenge because the two "sure things" in their rotation, Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan, are young and inexperienced starters who threw about 100 innings apiece this season. They'll surely have workload limits in place next year, and the model we're discussing would help accommodate that, while reducing a need to compensate by going out and finding proven durable workhorses on the open market (far and few between, highly expensive). Theoretically this could be a way to maximize effectiveness for a multitude of pitchers. We've seen many failing starters reinvent themselves as outstanding relievers, and this would be a pivot in the same vein. Guys can let loose more in shorter stints, rely on a two- or three-pitch mix, and avoid going through the lineup multiple times. In the not-too-distant past, it would've been difficult if not impossible to facilitate a system like this, but the expansion of rosters and the ability to continually carry 13-14 pitchers makes it feasible. You might ask, what types of pitchers would fit under an approach like this? There are a few names on the free agent market that catch my eye, but first, let's discuss some internal candidates to thrive under such an arrangement. Randy Dobnak: He's not really built up to a starter's full workload after throwing 46 and 70 innings in the last two seasons. As a multi-inning reliever or "extended opener" type starter, he'd be able to stretch out without pushing too hard. Griffin Jax: I wrote a while ago about why I like Jax as a candidate to level-up in a relief role: he's got one really good pitch (his slider), and he held opponents to a .597 OPS the first time through the lineup this year. Limiting him to two- or three-inning stints could help unlock his peak form. Lewis Thorpe: I'm not sure if the Twins will continue to try and see things through with Thorpe, and it wouldn't surprise me if he's dumped from the 40-man roster in the near future. That said, if they are committed to giving him one more shot to get healthy and show his stuff, this seems like the way to do it. Full-time starter is out the window at this point. Upcoming Prospects: The Twins have a wealth of near-ready prospects in the minors, but most of them have been plagued by injury issues and nearly all will need to be carefully managed and monitored. This approach helps here, just as it does with managing young MLB starters like Ober and Ryan. Of course, the Twins can't do it all with what they have on hand. They'll need to bring in some talent. The downside of this model is that established MLB starters are probably not going to want to sign on for such unconventional and reduced usage. The upside is that you can possibly make savvy and cost-effective moves, signing down-and-out guys and turning them around. To be clear, the kinds of pitchers who would likely to be signed to support this framework are NOT going to excite anyone. As you look at some of the names I'll throw out below, it's important to think of them not as they are, but as what they could be. Surely no one in Seattle was excited when they signed downtrodden starter Kendall Graveman for $1.25M last year, but now he's suddenly a hot commodity after posting a 1.77 ERA as a reliever. Here are a few pitchers from the current free agent class who strike me as fits in the hybrid mold: Garrett Richards: Struggled as a starter for Boston this year, but moved to the bullpen in mid-August and posted a 3.42 ERA with one homer allowed in 18 appearances the rest of the way. He threw two or more innings in five of those appearances. Jordan Lyles: Been terrible the past two years while mostly pitching out of the rotation. But he's still only 31 and had some success as a multi-inning RP/swing-man type as recently as 2018. Vince Velasquez: I don't have a specific reason for identifying Velasquez in this mix other than he's always had good stuff that has never really played as a starter. Why not try something else? He'll be extremely cheap despite a career 9.9 K/9 rate. Trevor Cahill: Sort of the same deal here as above. Cahill has a good repertoire but has struggled to sustainably harness it. He has plenty of experience as both starter and reliever, so the shift to a role like this could be relatively natural for him. Josh Tomlin: There's nothing very interesting or exciting about Tomlin; I just think he'd be a likely target if the Twins were to take an approach like this. He's an experienced veteran who spent the past three years in Atlanta pitching in such a capacity – frequent multi-inning relief appearances with the occasional start mixed in – and he has Derek Falvey ties from his days in Cleveland. I'm sure much of the response to names like these, or even to an overall experimental approach like the one being proposed, will be some variation of "Cheap Pohlads." But I'd submit that the cost efficiencies of this approach enable the team to invest heavily elsewhere – say, a star shortstop, or a high-end closer, or putting all of their chips on one workhorse type starter while using the shorter-duration usage patterns otherwise. Will the Twins actually lean into a radically innovative pitching staff model like this? I don't know. Would I personally advise it? I'm not sure. But you don't have to read between the lines much to see they're considering something along these lines, and you don't have to squint too hard to see the logic and potential value in it. "How many multi-inning guys can we add to a staff and how far does that take us?” Maybe we're about to find out. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Order the Offseason Handbook — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

I continue to believe people are way too down on Dobnak! The guy was pitching through a bum finger on his pitching hand most of last year. When healthy and on his game, he's a great fit in a long-relief role: a strike-throwing, efficient, GB pitcher who can bridge several innings on a regular basis. I'm not ready to judge him entirely on the basis of his 2021 season. He did some special things in the first ~60 MLB innings and he has a legit formula to succeed.

The offseason is officially underway, and while the Stove's temperature could hardly be described as Hot, there's been plenty of action percolating in MLB, with some surprising early moves. For the Twins, efforts have largely been geared toward clearing roster space and preparing for the work ahead. But there has been one noteworthy addition, and some intriguing rumors bouncing around. Roster and Payroll Outlook as of Nov 10th, 2021 In each of these "status update" posts, we'll share an up-to-the-moment look at the 40-man roster as well as the projected 2022 roster/payroll. On the 40-man front, we've already seen a cascade of cuts, with the Twins needing to create significant room for new acquisitions, 60-day Injured List activations, and protecting key prospects from the Rule 5 draft. Since season's end, the team has already removed Drew Maggi, Rob Refsnyder, John Gant, Andrew Albers, Kyle Barraclough, Nick Vincent, Ian Gibaut and Luke Farrell. That's in addition to Andrelton Simmons, Alex Colome and Michael Pineda, who all exited via free agency. That's eight cuts to go along with one addition (which we'll cover shortly), leaving the number of spaces currently occupied at 30. However, this doesn't account for players who will need to be re-added from the 60-day IL (Dobnak, Kirilloff and Maeda at the very least) nor the prospects who need to be added (Lewis, Miranda, Sands, Winder -- jury's out on Enlow). Several key questions emerge in looking at this current breakdown. Will any of Smeltzer, Stashak or Thorpe be re-added after totally lost years? Are the Twins going to retain Garlick? Will any prospects other than the aforementioned handful be protected? Regardless, it's clear that there are still cuts yet to come, because one way or another, the front office will need more than 2-3 open spots to work with. Astudillo, Cave, Barnes, and Strotman strike me as players who are especially at risk, on the fringe of the team's plans. Here's a look at the 2022 squad as it currently projects, from my view (courtesy of our Roster & Payroll tool? Cotton Claimed Off Waivers The Twins added the former Rangers reliever on Friday, and as you'll notice above, we've now got Jharel Cotton penciled into the 2022 bullpen. That's not a lock by any means, but I don't think Minnesota would've committed a roster spot to him unless they intended to keep him. The right-hander is projected to make around $1.2M in his coming first year of arbitration eligibility. That price tag likely compelled Texas to part ways. Cotton is coming off a solid but shortened season in the majors (30.2 IP, 3.52 ERA, 3.72 FIP) and his track record is riddled with injuries, so he's far from a sure thing. It would be tremendously disappointing if he turns out to be anywhere near the club's biggest bullpen addition, but Cotton's a clear upgrade over much of the flotsam that comprised their relief depth in 2021. It's a bold strategy, Cotton. We'll see if it pays off. Twins Exploring SS Market No surprise here, but Jon Heyman reports that Minnesota is among the 13 teams "at least gauging the SS market." As Heyman notes, the level of early competition for this group is good news for an historically great class of free agent shortstops, but less so for any needy team like the Twins that might've hoped to strike a bargain. Aaron Gleeman has a great new piece at The Athletic analyzing this winter's SS class in depth. Oakland Open for Business Another development that Twins fans should have eyes on: the Athletics appear ready to blow it up. This became somewhat evident when they let their world-class manager leave for San Diego, and quotes from their GM only serve to confirm that an offseason of scaled-back spending and talent-dumping is ahead. For teams like the Twins that are in the market for pitching and possessing robust farm systems, this is a big moment of opportunity. Oakland, as usual, is deep on arms, and there are a few specific names that jump out as candidates for immediate and dramatic impact in the rotation. Per Heyman, Chris Bassitt, Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea are all on the table. Montas and Bassitt bordered on ace status in 2021. Manaea was one step behind, but still very good with a 3.91 ERA, 3.66 FIP and 9.7 K/9 rate. Because he's entering his final year of team control, and will be fairly expensive next year (~$10M), Manaea is someone the A's will be motivated to move, and will come at a lower price than the other two. Regardless of whom they're targeting, it's a no-brainer for the Twins to engage in talks and make a push for at least one of these quality starters. The more they can reduce their reliance on the free agent pitching market, the better. Heaney Comes Off the SP Market There was a sense that free agency would remain in mostly a holding pattern throughout November as teams brace for an expected lockout in December. But while there certainly has been no rush out of the gates, there's already been one significant starting pitcher signing that puts the Twins on notice: Andrew Heaney inked a one-year, $8.5M deal with the Dodgers. I don't know if Heaney was a target of particular interest to the Twins, but he's certainly the type of guy they should be eyeing as a secondary free agent addition for the rotation, given his age and upside. The fact that Los Angeles jumped on him so aggressively hints that it may not be wise to wait on other players in this range, who won't be as inclined to wait out a slow offseason as the top names. Speaking of which, that top tier of potential FA starters might get thinned out a bit more in the coming week. Robbie Ray, Noah Syndergaard, Justin Verlander and Eduardo Rodriguez were among the 14 players to receive qualifying offers. If any of them take it, they'll cease to be options for the Twins and others. Their deadline to make a decision is November 17th. 2 Key Additions to the Coaching Staff Finally, in non-roster news, the Twins have already filled the two biggest needs on their coaching staff, adding a bench coach and hitting coach to replace Mike Bell (R.I.P.) and Edgar Varela. The addition of David Popkins leaked in late October but was made official on Monday, when the Twins also announced the hiring of former Padres manager Jayce Tingler. Tingler, 40, is of a similar ilk to Rocco Baldelli in that he's relatively young (40) and was considered a rising managerial star in the game before things went sideways in 2021. He was NL Manager of the Year runner-up in 2020. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Order the Offseason Handbook — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

This past weekend, several of the top free agent starters received qualifying offers, meaning they'll either come off the market by accepting, or inherit a draft-pick attachment by rejecting. One name conspicuously absent from the list: Jon Gray, who is now available in free agency with no strings attached. He'll have plenty of suitors, and the Twins are sure to be among them. In an alternate universe, the Twins very well could've been matched with Gray from the very start. They held the No. 4 overall pick in the 2013 draft, with a clear need for pitching, and he was considered the top college arm after Stanford's Mark Appel, who went to Houston first overall. The Twins had deeply scouted their eventual pick, prep pitcher Kohl Stewart (who turned out to be a disastrous bust). But if the University of Oklahoma star Gray hadn't been claimed one spot ahead of Minnesota, by the Rockies at No. 3, would the Twins have opted for the far less risky commodity? Alas, we will never know. But now the Twins have an opportunity to reunite with the pitcher they just missed. As for Gray, his journey with the Rockies could best be described as ... rocky. Jon Gray's Tenure in Colorado The top draft pick established himself accordingly in the minors, and emerged as a consensus top-20 prospect after dominating the low minors. He moved quickly to the majors and finished sixth in Rookie of the Year voting. His performance in that rookie season of 2016 – 168 IP, 4.61 ERA, 3.60 FIP, 9.9 K/9, 1.26 WHIP – would basically set the benchmark for Gray. He was more or less that same guy throughout his time with the Rockies, with some high points and low points mixed in. He completes his run in Colorado with a 4.59 ERA and 3.91 FIP, displaying the gap one expects from a pitcher in Coors. While we all know the mile-high environment suppresses pitching results, Gray has failed to break through on any merit. He's never posted an ERA lower than 3.67, and he has a 4.19 FIP over the past four seasons. His year-to-year performance places him firmly in the "mid-rotation starter" category, which helps explain why Colorado didn't want to commit for $18.4 million. Gray likely would've accepted the QO, if offered. Instead he'll turn to the open market for a longer-term deal. The Rockies reportedly reached out with an extension offer before season's end, but were rejected. Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post posited that Gray "is likely seeking a three- or four-year deal at about $9 million-$10 million a season." That's right in Minnesota's wheelhouse, for their second rotation addition if not their first. Is Gray worthy of an intense pursuit? 3 Things to Know About Jon Gray He's durable. But not super durable. Gray has mostly avoided arm injuries throughout his professional career, despite hurling a fastball in the mid-90s plus a consistently heavy dose of sliders. He did miss a bit of time with an elbow flexor injury this past June, though he returned without issue. Gray ended up throwing 149 innings this year, which is almost exactly what he averaged from 2016 through 2019. He's never thrown more than 173 innings in a season but he's also never missed more than a handful of starts in a season, save for 2017 when a stress fracture in his foot cost him two months. In Colorado, Gray has mostly been treated as a five-and-fly type, pitching five or at most six innings before giving way to the bullpen. Some might say that fits the Twins' style of management. I'd argue its more reflective of the sport's evolution at large, but alas, it adds to the sense of alignment. He gets strikeouts, but doesn't make people chase. Gray has averaged more than a strikeout per inning in every full season he's pitched, including 2021 where he averaged 9.5 K/9. However, he did so this year with a chase rate ranking in the 5th percentile of all major-leaguers. O-Swing % represents the percentage of pitches where a batter swings outside the zone, and in this category Gray's 25.8% mark in 2021 would've ranked 29th out of 35 pitchers who pitched for the Twins this year, surpassing only Beau Burrows, Shaun Anderson, Kyle Barraclough, Andrew Albers, Edgar Garcia, Brandon Waddell and Willians Astudillo. Yeesh. The latest season was no outlier. Since his debut in 2015, Gray ranks 54th out of 54 pitchers (800+ IP) in chase rate. It's impressive Gray has been able to find relative success despite this critical shortcoming. But it also speaks to a potential opportunity to level-up. If Gray could make more batters chase out of the zone, he'd likely cut down on his mediocre walk rates, increase his already-good strikeout rates, and unlock greater overall efficiency. Undoubtedly his coaches in Colorado were working on this fairly obvious fix, but maybe a new voice helps him turn a corner — perhaps via increased usage of the changeup and curveball, which have generated his highest chase rates this year despite being his least-used offerings. He's one of the youngest starting pitchers in free agency. By nature, free agents tend to be past 30, and sometimes well past 30, because it takes six-plus years to reach that point. But Gray's reaching the open market on the early side, as a collegiate top draft pick who was fast-tracked to the big leagues by age 23. He just wrapped up his age-29 season and turned 30 a few days ago on November 5th. Given his relative lack of career earnings (he's banked about $16 million total up to this point), Gray may value the security of a longer-term deal at a reasonable sum, which holds appeal for teams given his age. In this respect, and also because he won't cost a draft pick to sign, Gray feels like a good fit for the Twins with their stuck-in-between status of contending and rebuilding. He could be a real difference-maker in 2022 but also '23 and '24. Jon Gray and the Twins An important thing to recognize about free agency is that you're not paying for what someone has done, you're paying for what they are going to do. No one can predict the future, obviously, but there are numerous indicators and signs. It's foolish to treat history as the only impactful one. Teams (including the Twins) didn't fixate on the past when they went hard after Zack Wheeler a couple years ago in free agency, despite his unspectacular career numbers (3.77 ERA, 3.71 FIP, 1.29 WHIP, 100 ERA+). The Phillies ultimately won out, signing Wheeler to a $118 million contract, and they've been richly rewarded as he's been one of the best pitchers in baseball since, posting a 2.82 ERA in two ultra-durable seasons. Now, I'm not saying Gray is anywhere close to the same as Wheeler, whose flaws were less readily apparent and his upside more so. Because of that, he won't get a deal anywhere near that same range. But there will be plenty of teams intrigued by his seemingly unscratched potential, and it would be no surprise if a modest bidding war breaks out. In the Offseason Handbook we projected a $10 million yearly salary, figuring he'd land a deal in the 3 years, $30M range, which jibes with what the Denver Post projected he would get. However, it would come as no shock at all if his eventual price tag climbs considerably higher. Ricky Nolasco territory (4 years, $49M) seems achievable. Would the Twins go that high? Should they? Are they even a destination of interest to Gray, whose own preferences will ultimately play a pivotal role in where he lands? It's hard to say. But what's clear is that Twins fans should be paying close attention to him, because there's little doubt Minnesota will be in the running. And despite expectations that this offseason would crawl its way to an early stop with a lockout looming, LA's signing of Andrew Heaney on Monday throws this presumption into doubt. Teams are out here looking to score early values on the market. If the Twins are serious about Gray, they'd be wise to make their intentions known quickly (if they haven't already). MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Order the Offseason Handbook — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article

The Minnesota Twins announced on Monday that they've hired former San Diego Padres manager Jayce Tingler as their new bench coach. He joins fellow newcomer David Popkins, who was also officially announced as the team's hitting coach. Tingler, who turns 41 later this month, previously served as a coach in the Texas Rangers system. In 2016, when the Twins hired away Thad Levine to become one their general manager, Tingler moved into an assistant GM role with the Rangers. He was hired to become manager of the Padres in October of 2019, but lasted only two years on the job. He was fired last month after San Diego came up well short of expectations following an active offseason. Tingler fills a role on the Twins staff that has been vacant since its previous tenant, Mike Bell, passed away tragically last spring. The news that David Popkins would be the Twins next hitting coach broke a couple of weeks ago on Twitter. The 31-year-old had been the hitting coach for the Great Lakes Loons, the Dodgers' High-A affiliate. While Tingler is a Missouri native who was the San Diego manager, Popkins is a San Diego native who played at UC-Davis before spending three seasons in affiliates ball (Cardinals) and then three seasons in independent baseball). He was going to be the Dodgers' Arizona League hitting coach in 2020, but then the minor league season was cancelled, and he moved up to High-A in 2021. Tingler played at the University of Missouri and then was a tenth round pick of the Blue Jays in 2003. He played four seasons in the minors before becoming a coach in the Dominican Summer League, and then he managed the team. He become a Coordinator (of Instruction) in 2011, and then the Rangers minor league Field Coordinator for three seasons. We'll have more details about the new hire here shortly. Stay tuned and share your initial thoughts below. View full article

Knebel was an extremely popular FA relief option in these blueprints. Probably the most popular. I definitely get the appeal.

Share a link and I'll add it to the list in the article! My searching process was by no means comprehensive

Fans in our community have been coming up with their own ideas, suggestions, and plans for the Minnesota Twins this offseason. We reviewed a bunch of them, and here we'll highlight some common threads, intriguing notions, and outside-the-box proposals. We created our Roster & Payroll Creator tool with the hopes that fans would dive in and devise their own blueprints illustrating different approaches to this crucial Twins offseason. I shared my own to kick things off. We're thrilled to see that in just a couple weeks since we officially launched the tool alongside the Offseason Handbook, several of you have taken us up on the challenge. In fact, we're kind of blown away. I went through the forums and blogs over the weekend and came across about a dozen submissions, most of them with thoughtful explanations of the decisions and motivations. You can click through to view any of them below. Each one has its own comment thread so you can share your thoughts: Andrew Mahlke blueprint Cory Engelhardt blueprint terrydactyls blueprint Greglw3 blueprint Sconnie blueprint TheLeviathan blueprint DocBauer blueprint mk blueprint mitcho8 blueprint sthpstm blueprint Ian23 blueprint wildtwinsfan045 blueprint As I perused these various perspectives on what a successful Twins offseason would look like, here are a few trends and specifics that caught my attention. Everyone Wants a Buxton Extension Almost every single blueprint submitted includes a contract extension for Byron Buxton, and it was usually the top priority accounted for. I was legitimately impressed by how many people took a stab at laying out their version of a reasonable framework. The particulars varied, but most conceptual deals called for about $15M in annual base salary plus incentives over 5-7 seasons. I don't think I saw a single blueprint proposing a Buxton trade – a little surprising, given the likelihood of such an outcome in real life. (For what it's worth, I tried hypothesizing one in this piece.) Basically everyone seems to be reaching the same conclusion. If reports in July were true – that Buxton's camp was comfortable with a deal built largely on incentives – it simply makes no sense for the Twins not to find a way to get it done. The Most Popular High-End SP Target Is... Blueprinters erred toward the side of realism, as I didn't see any write-ups that suggested signing Max Scherzer, or Clayton Kershaw, or Noah Syndergaard. The most common Tier 1 SP free agent to appear in these plans was Marcus Stroman, which doesn't surprise me because he looks like a fairly natural Twins fit. In the Handbook we noted how similarly he profiles to José Berríos as a fringe #1/2 type in the rotation. As @DocBauer put it succinctly in their blueprint: "He's quality and proven." Robbie Ray was the prime choice of those who wanted to dream big, such as @Greglw3 and @Sconnie, and Carlos Rodón showed up in the blueprints from @Andrew Mahlke and @mk. I was a little surprised by the lack of love for Kevin Gausman, who didn't appear in a single one of these blueprints. We Like Big Mike The most common free agent signing across all of these different plans was easily Michael Pineda. More than half of the blueprint submissions call for a Big Mike reunion. It's just too logical a fit. He has a known affinity for playing in Minnesota and should come with a reasonable mid-rotation price tag. In the Handbook we project him for an $8M salary – it may wind up coming in a little higher or lower, but that should be in the ballpark. If you have any faith in him staying healthy and keeping his fastball in the 93-MPH range, that's a good value and a rotation spot taken care of. What to Do at Shortstop? Opinions were very split on how to approach the Twins' biggest positional need. A few users called for going big – @mitcho8 proposed a Trevor Story signing, while @TheLeviathan and @wildtwinsfan045 made Corey Seager their centerpieces – but many relented to a stopgap like Jose Iglesias or Freddy Galvis. (Notably, Andrelton Simmons was absent from all blueprints.) Who Should Close for the Twins? It's a key question. Most blueprints advise the Twins to stick with Taylor Rogers in his final year of arbitration. Some call for adding a co-closer to offset some of the injury risk. User @Doctor Gast decided to crowdsource the question in the forums, which created some good discussion. Aside from Rogers, the most popular name seems to be Raisel Iglesias. Ryan Tepera and Kirby Yates (on an incentive-laden deal) were also tossed around. @Rosterman wondered if perhaps Jorge Alcalá could become a closer option as soon as 2022. (There may be something to that.) Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel are pretty clearly out of the question, but one name that conspicuously didn't seem to come up was Mark Melancon. The fact that no one seems to be looking at him almost makes me wonder if the Twins will. Rounding out that top tier with Jansen, Kimbrel and Iglesias, Melancon seems to be the unsexy choice given his age (36) and his unspectacular strikeout rate (8.2 K/9 this year, and in his career). But the guy's track record in the closer role is pretty incredible, and he was an All-Star in 2021. Some believe the Twins are better off keeping closer as a backburner priority, such as @nicksaviking, who made this comment that's (at least for me) hard to argue with: "Unless it's some surprisingly big name who is a year-in year-out reliable stud, I don't want to hand over the closer gig to any free agent. Relievers rarely have similar years back to back. Their small sample sizes, transient nature and lack of a third pitch tend to make them more unpredictable than other baseball players. In 2022 the high leverage relievers should = whomever is currently the hottest pitchers RIGHT NOW; not last year, or whomever is paid the most." Manaea Mania! There were several different creative trade scenarios outlined in these blueprints. The most frequent player targeted was Oakland's Sean Manaea. Packages used to acquire the lefty starter differed greatly, and illustrated the difficulty of predicting trades – @Cory Engelhardt pitched a return of Matt Canterino, Matt Wallner and Blayne Enlow (a bit much, IMO), while @Ian23 drew up an exchange of Drew Strotman, Keoni Cavaco and Jermaine Palacios for Manaea and shortstop Elvis Andrus (a bit light, although I like the two-birds-with-one-stone execution here). The bottom line is that Manaea looks like a very plausible trade candidate as a starter getting expensive in his final year of arbitration for the low-spending A's. (He's projected to make about $10M in 2021.) He's an excellent fit for the Twins and their needs. Mingling with Miami Aside from the Manaea trades, there were a few other interesting ideas offered up. For example, @terrydactyls mapped out a blockbuster that involves Minnesota sending Max Kepler, Luis Arraez, Mitch Garver, and Simeon Woods Richardson to Miami in exchange for Sandy Alcantera and Richard Bleier, with Alcantara serving as a young ace-type centerpiece. A blueprint from @sthpstm gives another take on a Twins/Marlins trade, proposing the following: Garver, Trevor Larnach, Miguel Sanó, Canterino (or similar), and $4M to Miami for Edward Cabrera, Jesus Luzardo, and Nick Fortes. Another high-scale concept that brings in high-end young pitching talent, this time with a top prospect as the prize rather than an established MLB starter like Alcantara. @TheLeviathan's blueprint included a straight swap of Garver for Sixto Sanchez. Clearly, people are zeroing in on the Marlins as a trade partner for Minnesota, and that makes plenty of sense: they have a wealth of young pitching and need bats. As Nash Walker wrote in his feature for the Handbook, "No team is a better trade partner for Minnesota than the Miami Marlins." Let's See Your Plan We've seen a lot of different ideas laid out above, but there are still endless combinations and permutations of what this Twins offseason could look like. We'd love to see yours, so if you haven't put one together yet, we invite you to grab a copy of the Offseason Handbook, pull up the Roster & Payroll tool, and show us what you've got. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Order the Offseason Handbook — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email View full article