Nick Nelson

Basically, yes. WPA is a pure measure of situational outcomes, with a lot of detail missing -- you get tons of credit for protecting a 1-run lead in the 9th, even if you faced the bottom of the lineup and they all hit rockets to the warning track. Wins Above Replacement is all about expected outcomes -- it's influenced by Ks, BBs, and HRs, and less by batted-ball variance. It is, from my view, far more predictive than WPA and usually more predictive than mainstream stats like ERA. Which is not to say it's perfect. I probably wouldn't have written this article if the gap between these two metrics were not so utterly dramatic.

... Yes? Underlying performance indicators tend to be predictive. That's my whole point. I'm not feeding "negativity wolves" I'm addressing a very real and palpable concern about this team's outlook.

In terms of impact on winning ballgames, the Minnesota Twins' bullpen has been one of the best in the league this year, playing a key role in propelling the team to first place by a healthy margin through 48 games. But a deeper look reveals alarming signs. Image courtesy of Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports In terms of impact on winning ballgames, the Minnesota Twins' bullpen has been one of the best in the league this year, playing a key role in propelling the team to first place by a healthy margin through 48 games. But a deeper look reveals alarming signs. Monday's game against the Tigers offered ominous signs of potential things to come. Joe Smith, who allowed zero runs in his first 16 appearances of the season, has now allowed four runs in his past four. He couldn't dance his way out of a leadoff triple in the seventh at Detroit, letting two runs in on three hits and taking the loss. The regression he's experiencing may be a harbinger for the relief corps as a whole. According to Win Probability Added, which quantifies the percent change in a team's chances of winning from one event to the next, Minnesota's bullpen entered play Monday as the fourth-best in baseball, adding more than two victories to the ledger through clutch performances in tight situations. With the Twins possessing a 9-5 record in one-run games, that sounds about right. However, according to Wins Above Replacement, which seeks to paint a more process-driven picture of value, Twins relievers have been the second-WORST in all of baseball – dead last in the American League. FanGraphs pegs this group as sub-replacement level on whole. That is the case despite breakout star Jhoan Duran pitching incredibly well at the back end. In fact, his status as a crux point in this Twins bullpen might be the scariest thing of all. Without him around, the unit would look dramatically worse and less imposing. In order to avoid turning too often to guys like Tyler Duffey and Emilio Pagán, who are hard to trust, the Twins will need to lean hard on Duran. But we're talking about a guy who threw 16 total innings the past two years, and who dealt with a serious elbow strain for almost all of 2021. There's a huge risk in overusing him. From a big-picture perspective, they should probably err toward underusing him. Reinforcements will be needed as we get into the heart of the summer. Yennier Canó unfortunately did not make a strong impression during his first turn with the big-league club. Danny Coulombe will be out for a while after aggravating his hip injury. Jorge Alcala's return is not imminent. Right now, there's a lot of pressure on the likes of Juan Minaya, Jovani Moran, and Trevor Megill to establish themselves as viable options in leverage, which is not a great place for the Twins to be. (This is where I must obligatorily point out that – as Chris Paddack embarks on the long road back from Tommy John surgery – Taylor Rogers has a 1.17 ERA for the Padres and leads the world in saves, although he did cough up a game to Pittsburgh the other night by allowing three runs.) Minnesota's bullpen has outperformed expectations and underlying metrics like no other in the game. As the season progresses, that balancing act becomes trickier and trickier. So far Rocco Baldelli has mostly been putting relievers in a position to succeed and relievers have mostly been getting it done. How much longer will that sustain? Unless a few guys other than Duran can step up, I fear Monday's slip-up was only the beginning. View full article

The Twins are in the middle of a lengthy run of games with no breaks. They've been taking some hits. They remain in first place by a healthy margin. Now, the going's about to get rough. Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports The Twins are in the middle of a lengthy run of games with no breaks. They've been taking some hits. They remain in first place by a healthy margin. Now, the going's about to get rough. Last Week's Game Results: Game 42 | MIN 5, DET 4: Urshela Walks It Off Again Game 43 | MIN 2, DET 0: Gray Dominates in Shutout Victory Game 44 | DET 4, MIN 2: Offense Goes Cold, No Sweep Game 45 | KC 3, MIN 2: Bullpen and Bats Fall Short Game 46 | MIN 10, KC 7: Polanco, Correa Provide Power Game 46 | KC 7, MIN 3: Archer Hits a Wall Against Royals Game 47 | MIN 7, KC 3: Twins Split Behind Gray's Win Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 5/23 through Sun, 5/29 *** Record Last Week: 4-3 (Overall: 29-19) Run Differential Last Week: +3 (Overall: +34) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (5.0 GA) NEWS & NOTES On Sunday, Royce Lewis was recalled from Triple-A, with José Miranda going down. Lewis started in center field. The first couple balls in play came his way, and he fielded them flawlessly. Then, he made a great play running into the wall and hurt his surgically repaired knee, which basically sounds like a worst case scenario. As of Sunday night, Lewis was diagnosed with a bone bruise. We'll learn more in the coming week, but he's going on the injured list. The Twins bullpen has seen a constant flow of churn, which is not exactly out of character for the Twins front office, but still exhausting to keep up with. The past week saw Danny Coulombe activated from the injured list and then placed back on it after aggravating a hip injury in his first appearance. Yennier Canó was optioned to Triple-A in the wake of another ugly outing Friday that left his ERA at 13.50. Juan Minaya and Jovani Moran, who both factored into the second-half bullpen mix last year, have been called up as reinforcements. Veteran reliever Hunter Wood was signed to a minor-league contract and will have a chance to make his case at St. Paul for another big-league shot. Coming back from elbow surgery, he has a 3.34 ERA in 91 ⅔ big-league innings. The Twins are digging deeper than ever into their reliever depth. With Coulombe, Cody Stashak, Josh Winder, and Jorge Alcala all sidelined, they need some guys to step up. In the rotation, Joe Ryan missed his scheduled start on Thursday due to COVID, so Devin Smeltzer was called up for another spot start. Smeltzer delivered once again with seven shutout innings. He'll get another turn in Tuesday's upcoming doubleheader. Elsewhere in the system, pitching prospect Chris Vallimont – designated for assignment the previous week – was claimed off waivers by Baltimore. Gilberto Celestino went on the COVID list two days after Ryan. Max Kepler left Saturday';s game with right quad tightness, although it looks like he'll avoid the IL HIGHLIGHTS The Twins are getting everything they could've possibly hoped for out of Sonny Gray thus far. He delivered his finest outing yet on Tuesday, striking out 10 Tigers over seven shutout innings to spearhead a 2-0 victory. He followed with six innings of one-run ball on Sunday against Kansas City, fanning four with no walks. He exited the game with pectoral soreness. Hopefully it's no big issue, because Gray is becoming exactly what the Twins need him to be: an ace. He's shutting down opposing lineups and going deep, with a clear level of confidence. Gray has been dominating. Of course, he's also been doing so against some pretty weak lineups, with a slate of opponents this month that has included Oakland (twice), Cleveland, Detroit, and Kansas City. We'll get a better idea of his potential playoff mettle when the schedule steepens in June. His next scheduled start is the opener of the Blue Jays series, against a high-powered offense on the road. Luis Arraez continues to key the lineup with remarkably consistent production. He ran his hitting streak to nine games last week, starting everyday and going 12-for-27 with four walks. His on-base percentage sits at .456 on the season, making him an ideal asset at the top of the order. Arraez has also looked surprisingly adept at first base – a position he has now firmly taken over for this team. It's an unexpectedly favorable scenario because it both addresses a key need on the field for the Twins, and also largely hides Arraez's defensive deficiencies. He's not a world-beater at first but he's completely fine there, and it's been huge for the team. Other standout performances from the past week included: Gio Urshela opening the week with a walk-off hit and ending it with a three-run blast on Sunday. He had a couple of three-hit games, and continued to make impressive plays at third base, providing a steady veteran presence at the hot corner. Trevor Larnach was a flat-out dominant force, going 9-for-16 with four homers and eight RBIs. He's a crucial cog in the offense right now. Dylan Bundy took care of business against Detroit on Wednesday, holding the Tigers to one run over 5 ⅔ innings. He struck out six and walked one. Since giving up nine earned runs in Baltimore on May 4th and going on the COVID list almost immediately after, Bundy has allowed just that one run over 8 ⅔ innings in two starts. Unfortunately, the Twins wasted his quality effort on Wednesday with a bullpen hiccup and lack of offensive support, just as they did with Smeltzer the following day. Carlos Correa finished 10-for-32 with two doubles and a homer. He doesn't appear hampered by the finger injury that sidelined him, and is starting to show flashes of his potential with an OPS steadily on the rise. It still feels like we're due for a true breakout hot streak from Correa, and it'd be really nice if that coincided with the upcoming run of tough opponents. LOWLIGHTS Byron Buxton went from red-hot to ice-old quicker than Minnesota temps in September. The center fielder saw his hitless streak stretch to 30 at-bats as he started the week 0-for-17 before legging out an infield single late in Friday's game then notching a couple hits over the weekend. The struggles lowered Buxton's average briefly below .200 and he now sits with a .205/.287/.512 slash line on then season – still well above average thanks to his ridiculous power-hitting display early on. In baseball it's pretty standard for cold streaks to counteract hot streaks in the endless dance toward equilibrium, and Buxton's slump seems like a somewhat extreme version of this. He isn't striking out a ton, nor producing terrible contact. Buxton's six-game hitless spell was driven by a high degree of bad luck and happenstance. Then again, he's also clearly playing through lingering discomfort and physical limitation while on the field. You can see it in his mannerisms as he pulls into second on a double, and you have to believe it's affecting his results. For now, the Twins seem intent to stick with their plan of giving him routine days off and avoiding the injured list. Minnesota's offense has been quite good, in relative terms, but like many around the league this year, they've been prone to lengthy periods of quietude. Buxton's slump is certainly a big ingredient in that, but Ryan Jeffers also taking a plunge (1-for-14 last week) has also factored. Various players throughout the lineup – even those who've generally been playing well – have been coming up short in a lot of key RISP spots lately. On multiple occasions the Twins loaded the bases with no outs in key moments, and came away empty. That, combined with some emerging warts in the bullpen, caused the Twins to lose some of the close games that were previously going their way. Tyler Duffey easily had the team's worst Win Probability Added of the week, as he single-handedly coughed up Thursday's contest by turning a 2-0 lead into a 3-2 deficit. The costly clunker was similar to Duffey's season debut, in that he came in with a clean frame and a lead, and ended up with an L. It bears noting that Duffey seemed to be righting the ship – between those two appearances, he had a 2.76 ERA with six holds and a save in 16 outings – but the right-hander is plainly bringing sub-par stuff. Even when he succeeds, it doesn't have sustainable underpinnings. His fastballs are 91-MPH cookies. Even the bread-and-butter breaking ball that fueled Duffey's emergence as a reliever isn't doing what it used to. TRENDING STORYLINE On Saturday night, with Max Kepler facing a potential IL stint following his exit with right leg tightness, I pondered whether Lewis or Alex Kirilloff would get the call to fill his roster spot. It turns out Kepler avoided the injured list, but Lewis was called up anyway, and he ended up on IL in a wild turn of events. So now... Kirilloff has got to be coming up. Right? LOOKING AHEAD The Twins are in the thick of it right now. They're amidst a stretch of 18 games in 17 days, including an upcoming scheduled doubleheader on Tuesday. This is going to be a hell of a week. Granted, the Twins open with five games against a Tigers team they have mostly handled. But they're on the road, and five games in four days presents many challenges no matter whom the opponent. Far from getting any respite after this sprint, the Twins head straight to Toronto for three games against a very good Blue Jays team. This opens a run of three straight series against the top three teams in the AL East. They did a solid job against an extended run against cushy competition, but now the Twins are going to see their mettle put to the test. We're scheduled to see an old friend next Saturday. MONDAY, 5/30: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Dylan Bundy v. RHP Beau Brieske TUESDAY, 5/31 (1): TWINS @ TIGERS – LHP Devin Smeltzer v. RHP Rony Garcia TUESDAY, 5/31 (2): TWINS @ TIGERS – TBD v. TBD WEDNESDAY, 6/1: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Bailey Ober v. LHP Tarik Skubal THURSDAY, 6/2: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Chris Archer v. RHP Alex Faedo FRIDAY, 6/3: TWINS @ BLUE JAYS – RHP Sonny Gray v. LHP Yusei Kikuchi SATURDAY, 6/4: TWINS @ BLUE JAYS – RHP Dylan Bundy v. RHP Jose Berríos SUNDAY, 6/5: TWINS @ BLUE JAYS – TBD v. RHP Kevin Gausman View full article

Max Kepler left Saturday's game with right quad tightness, and it sounds like there's a fair chance he'll land on the injured list. Should that happen, the player called up to replace him will almost certainly be either Alex Kirilloff or Royce Lewis. So let's try to answer two questions: who will it be, and who should it be? Image courtesy of Jonathan Dyer and Bruce Kluckhohn, USA Today Max Kepler left Saturday's game with right quad tightness, and it sounds like there's a fair chance he'll land on the injured list. Should that happen, the player called up to replace him will almost certainly be either Alex Kirilloff or Royce Lewis. So let's try to answer two questions: who will it be, and who should it be? After coming out of Saturday's loss to Kansas City with leg tightness, Max Kepler's status going forward was in doubt. The right fielder was due for an MRI, with Rocco Baldelli saying "it could go either way" in terms of an IL stint. The thing is: even if the Twins think he could return in a few days, they might be inclined to place Kepler in IL anyway. They've already been bitten by shorthanded benches, in instances where Byron Buxton and Jorge Polanco were active yet unavailable as late-game subs. Now the Twins are in the middle of an absolute gauntlet of games and travel, with no breaks. Even if Kepler avoids the IL, Minnesota is surely going to need reinforcements soon enough, so the question is pertinent either way: which of their top two talents at Triple-A is next in line? The Case for Royce Lewis Many felt he should've never been sent down to begin with, having excelled during an 11-game stint with the Twins following a scorching hot start at Triple-A. But the Twins wanted to get him a little seasoning around the field so as to ensure Lewis – fresh off missing two full seasons – wasn't taking on too much at once. It's only been a couple weeks since they sent him down, but Lewis has basically shown everything you could want to see in terms of readiness. He's continued to rake with an ultra-aggressive, free-swinging approach. He's made starts in left field, center, and at third, in addition to shortstop. He's flashed immediate proclivity at these new positions. Lewis is the kind of electric difference-maker that would have a real chance to offset the significant loss of a guy like Kepler, who's been one of Minnesota's most valuable players this year. And now the Twins can feel some confidence in moving Lewis around the field to keep him in the lineup everyday. The Case for Alex Kirilloff Unlike Lewis, there is no developmental reason to have Kirilloff in Triple-A, other than: he's not right, and they need him to get right. There are signs he has gotten right. Since being sent down to Triple-A in the middle of May, Kirilloff is hitting .364/.435/.509, so it's safe to say he's a step ahead of minor-league pitching. The question is whether he can translate that success to the majors, where he has a .398 OPS in 10 games this year, and some ugly underlying metrics. The power still hasn't really shown up for Kirilloff – 16 of his 20 hits since returning to the Saints have been singles, although he does have a couple of home runs, including a two-run blast on a good-looking swing Thursday. Kirilloff is a more straightforward one-for-one swap for Kepler than Lewis, given that he's a lefty-swinging corner outfielder. You could essentially plug Kirilloff right into Kep's role, while perhaps mixing in some days at first base and spelling Luis Arraez as DH. Who Will the Twins Choose? The final tidbit above makes me feel like Kirilloff has a good chance. It's easy, it's tidy. However, I tend to think Lewis might have the inside edge. Part of it is that the Twins need a real spark to get through this upcoming stretch if Kepler is sidelined. Lewis has been consistently tearing it up and impressing this year. Kirilloff, despite his very good numbers, is not quite slugging to a convincing extent at Triple-A. Lewis is just a better bet to make a bigger impact. The other thing, and maybe the bigger thing, is that the Twins are in a grind right now. They haven't had a day off in almost two weeks, and they're looking ahead to nine games in the next eight days, with a road doubleheader mixed in. Right now the Twins need bodies they can rely on. Rocco Baldelli probably would (and should) feel inclined to take it somewhat easy on Kirilloff, who is still feeling pain through his swing. Kirilloff certainly would not play both ends of a doubleheader for instance. Lewis, though? He's a spry and incredibly athletic 22-year-old who can play multiple key positions. He's shown no signs of hindrance from last year's knee injury – Lewis stole his 12th base in his 34th game at St. Paul on Saturday. Hopefully Kepler's MRI comes out clean and he's back in the lineup within a few days. If not, I think Lewis gets the call, though it wouldn't surprise me at all if Kirilloff is the choice. Do you see the Twins going with Lewis or Kirilloff as their next position player call-up? Or maybe another direction? We'd love to hear your thoughts in the comments! View full article

I feel seen ? Hey, the English language is always evolving or something, right?

That is exactly the idea behind this column, so it's great to hear! Thanks for saying so. As someone who follows the team ultra-closely and watches almost every game, I also find writing it each week gives me a level of perspective over the course of a long season. 6-7 game samples aren't all that meaningful, but much more so than 1-game samples.

I was thinking along these lines and wondering how much credit goes to the new hitting coach. Always hard to say from the outside, but it definitely seems like for the most part, hitters are harnessing their strengths and producing. Kepler, Garlick and Celestino have been among the most impressive, especially compared to their track records. Good early returns on Popkins.

With 41 games in the books, that Minnesota Twins are almost exactly 25% of the way through their 2022 schedule. Obviously, things have gone better than expected so far. Here are four thoughts on the first-place Twins as we take stock at this checkpoint. Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports With 41 games in the books, that Minnesota Twins are almost exactly 25% of the way through their 2022 schedule. Obviously, things have gone better than expected so far. Here are four thoughts on the first-place Twins as we take stock at this checkpoint. 1: People aren't fully buying into the team's success. The Twins are on pace to win 99 games, which would stack up as one of the best seasons in franchise history. But if this Twins Daily Twitter poll from Sunday night is any indication, most people aren't convinced that they'll be able to keep up with that pace. With 500 votes in, only 5% of respondents said the Twins will finish with 100 or more wins, and only 12% had them landing in the 95-to-99 range where they are currently projected. A vast majority (61%) expect the team to finish with 90-to-94 wins, and more voters envision the Twins winning fewer than 90 (22%) than 95 or more (17%). It's fair! Perspective matters. We are currently sizing up the Twins in the midst of a hot streak against blatantly poor competition. The only time we saw them face a great opponent this month, the Twins were swept and thoroughly dismantled by the Astros – albeit without two of their best players in Carlos Correa and Luis Arraez. Most people are gonna need to see the Twins win a few slugfests in their own weight class before anointing them a true upper-echelon contender. Nothing wrong with that. The team will have its chance in early June with a tour of top dogs in the AL East: Blue Jays, Yankees, Rays, successively. 2: The front office's bets are paying off (mostly). The Twins opted not to invest heavily in the free agent reliever market, signing only one player to a major-league contract: Joe Smith, on a cheap one-year $2.5 million deal. That move couldn't have worked out better so far, as Smith has yet to allow an earned run through 16 appearances. The bullpen as a whole has been far better than expected, in spite of the passive offseason approach. The team's belief in Jhoan Durán helped them feel comfortable trading Taylor Rogers for Chris Paddack (a bet that did NOT pay off, for this year anyway) on the eve of Opening Day. They've been rewarded. Griffin Jax has also been excellent in his transition to the pen. The front office's boldest gambit of the offseason was that wild mega-deal with the Yankees, which involved losing Mitch Garver and taking on Gary Sánchez and Gio Urshela in order to to dump Josh Donaldson's salary. (Thus setting up the Correa signing.) That one's looking pretty good too. Donaldson is hitting decently well as a frequent DH for the Yankees, but drawing headlines in New York for all the wrong reasons. The improvement in clubhouse culture for the Twins since his departure has been apparent even from the outside. Meanwhile, Sánchez is emerging as the slugging force that the Twins hoped Garver (slashing .207/.295/.370 for the Rangers so far) would be. 3: The Twins/White Sox rivalry we wanted last year has now arrived. The Royals and Tigers have already pretty much rendered themselves irrelevant, and it's hard to buy into the mediocre Guardians, despite the greatness of José Ramirez. Chicago has been scuffling a bit in the early going but garnered some momentum on Sunday with a doubleheader sweep over the Yankees. They're back above .500 and trailing the Twins in the Central by four games. There was a lot of hype surrounding the return of this classic rivalry last year, following a tight race in the shortened 2020 season, but the Twins never showed up for the fight. This year they're showing up, and I suspect the White Sox will too. Both teams have a lot of talent and a lot of character, so it should be fun. 4: The combination of standout rookies and established stars is really exciting. There's just a great vibe on this team. It's awesome to see Joe Ryan stepping up and leading the rotation, while Durán establishes himself as The Guy in the bullpen. Gilberto Celestino is blossoming before our eyes. We've already seen flashes from Royce Lewis; he and other top prospects are likely to factor in as the season goes on: Jordan Balazovic, Matt Canterino, Simeon Woods Richardson, José Miranda (maybe after a get-right stint in Triple-A). All in play. Meanwhile, the true leaders of this team are Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa, two bona fide superstars in their prime. Jorge Polanco and Luis Arraez are on the next tier. Max Kepler is having a resurgent season to reinsert himself into that conversation. We can maybe say the same about Gary Sánchez, who seems to be getting exactly what he needed out of this change of scenery. The intermingling of experienced mainstays who are performing well, and young up-and-comers who are often contributing immediately, along with a $35M free agent who somehow gives off no "mercenary" vibes ... it's really cool. This is a very likable group and it's adding all the more to the enjoyment of this (so far) surprisingly wonderful 2022 season. Here's hoping we feel the same way at the halfway point, and especially at the finish line. View full article

My opinion: nothing to worry about. I think it's a combination of factors: Pitchers aren't giving him much to hit (which he's adapting to – 8 walks in the past 10 games after drawing 2 in his first 17 games) Really bad luck. He has a .042 BABIP over this span, which is just ridiculous. The quality of contact is down a little but he's not striking out a ton or falling apart mechanically or anything. I think it's just a lil slump to offset this absurdly hot start.

Thanks for the post Jason! Looking forward to reading more of your stuff. Just from going through your list of random thoughts I can tell we'll often be on the same page.

The Minnesota Twins extended their lead in the AL Central with a dominant week against sub-par competition as they continue to enjoy the softest section of their 2022 schedule. Their early success hasn't made the Twins immune from criticism and controversy, but it's all contributed to an extremely entertaining and compelling first quarter of the season. Image courtesy of Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports The Minnesota Twins extended their lead in the AL Central with a dominant week against sub-par competition as they continue to enjoy the softest section of their 2022 schedule. Their early success hasn't made the Twins immune from criticism and controversy, but it's all contributed to an extremely entertaining and compelling first quarter of the season. Last Week's Game Results: Game 36 | MIN 3, OAK 1: Lewis, Sanchez Lead Twins Game 37 | OAK 5: MIN 2: Royce Rolls but Winder Wilts in Loss Game 38 | MIN 14, OAK 4: Bats Bust Out in Series Clincher Game 39 | MIN 6, KC 4: Smeltzer Solid, Miranda Clutch Game 40 | MIN 9, KC 2: Late-Inning Rally Fuels Blowout Win Game 41 | MIN 7, KC 6: Twins Score 7 Unanswered in Massive Comeback Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 5/16 through Sun, 5/22 *** Record Last Week: 5-1 (Overall: 25-16) Run Differential Last Week: +19 (Overall: +31) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (4.5 GA) NEWS & NOTES Oh man, what a week. This first-place Twins are taking heat on multiple fronts, which I guess we can take as a positive. People care! My quick takes on both of the big talkers from last week: Royce Lewis demoted to make room for Carlos Correa. It stinks, I get it. Lewis is an electric young player who was coming off an outstanding game Tuesday night, so the timing could've hardly been worse. But the Twins called him up to fill in for Correa at shortstop, and they stuck with their plan. They want Lewis to play everyday and gain familiarity at some other positions in a lower-stakes environment. That's exactly what's happening – Lewis has already made starts at third base and left field in addition shortstop since going down. He'll be back soon enough. Chris Paddack undergoes Tommy John. The surgery was expected but became official on Wednesday. It's obviously a very unfortunate development, especially given the success Taylor Rogers is having in San Diego. The trade still has a chance to work out in Minnesota's favor – Emilio Pagán has been solid, and Paddack is under team control for the next two years. But without question, the Twins ended up downgrading their talent significantly in a contention year. We'll see how much it ends up hurting them. Kyle Garlick was activated from IL at the start of the week and Trevor Larnach at the end, backfilling some key outfield depth for the Twins. The rest of the week's moves mostly involved juggling the pitching staff. Here's a quick recap: IN: Dylan Bundy (activated from IL), Trevor Megill (added to 40-man and called up), Bailey Ober (activated from IL). OUT: Jharrel Cotton (DFA'ed, outrighted to St. Paul), Devin Smeltzer (optioned to St. Paul), Josh Winder (placed on IL with shoulder impingement), Cody Stashak (also placed on IL with shoulder impingement). Finally, Chris Vallimont was designated for assignment to create 40-man space (we'll learn soon if he gets claimed) and Danny Coulombe started a rehab stint at Wichita. HIGHLIGHTS It'll be awhile before the Twins have another opportunity to prove themselves against high-caliber competition, but one signature of good baseball teams is that they consistently take care of business against weaker opponents. Minnesota has been doing exactly that here in May, and it continued in a 5-1 week capped by a spectacular late-game comeback in Kansas City. Down 6-0 entering the eighth, the Twins scored seven unanswered in the last two innings to steal a victory and seal a sweep. Despite losing Paddack, the rotation kept up its surprisingly steady work, with effective returns to action for Bundy (3 IP, 0 ER on Tuesday) and Ober (5 IP, 1 ER on Sunday). Joe Ryan lowered his ERA to 2.38 on Saturday, tossing 5 ⅔ innings of one-run ball. He's allowed two or fewer runs in seven of his eight starts, and has a 5-2 record to show for it. On offense, the Twins were very happy to get back Garlick, who drove in two runs in Friday 6-4 victory and launched a crucial homer (against a righty!) in Sunday's comeback. Gilberto Celestino continues to enjoy a major breakthrough, and owns a seven-game hitting streak after going 7-for-16 last week. He's batting .422 in the month of May. Gary Sánchez has come on in a hurry after starting slow. He went 7-for-24 last week with four doubles, two home runs, and eight RBIs while starting all six games. This is the Sánchez who had gone missing in New York, and you hope the slugging rejuvenation is here to stay. The Twins are surely happy enough to no longer have to deal with Josh Donaldson and his antics, but Sánchez is proving to be a very valuable asset on his own, delivering the power Minnesota was originally hoping to get from Mitch Garver (who's slugging .370 in Texas). While many of us questioned it at the time, that series of moves is looking extra sweet right now. Perhaps no Twins hitter is more fun to watch at this moment than Luis Arraez. He is absolutely on top of his game and providing a constant spark to the lineup in his unlikely new role as primary first baseman. Arraez struck out once all week and reached base in well over half of his 26 plate appearances, tallying nine hits and six walks. Since returning from a bout with COVID earlier in the month, Arraez is batting .382 with a 2-to-9 K/BB ratio and .545 on-base percentage in 10 games. LOWLIGHTS A pair of relief implosions were the biggest blemishes in a mostly outstanding week for Rocco Baldelli and the Twins. On Tuesday night, Winder was arguably hung out to dry in Oakland – pushed to throw 78 pitches in an extended relief outing behind Bundy. Winder managed to battle his way through three innings despite clearly not having his best command, but it all fell apart when he was sent back out for the seventh. The righty coughed up five earned runs in the inning, and finished the day with nine hits allowed and just one K. While I didn't love the decision to stick with the rookie so long, I sort of understood it, given that the Twins were a bit worn in the bullpen and they wanted to keep Winder stretched out as a starter. Still, it was clearly a questionable call, and it looks worse in hindsight, not just because of the results but because Winder went on the shelf days later with shoulder issues. He dealt with a similar injury late last year, so that's definitely worrisome, but hopefully the Twins are just getting out front of it. Yennier Canó impressed during a couple of outings in Oakland, allowing one run over three innings and notching his first big-league victory. But the bottom fell out on him in Kansas City with a disastrous appearance that saw him charged with five earned runs on four hits and two walks while recording just one out. He had no command and was offering up a ton of non-competitive pitches. Canó will be in danger of losing his bullpen spot quickly with Coulombe on the comeback trail and MLB clubs compelled to cut down to 13 pitchers in a week. Amidst all the roster juggling that took place last week, it was rather surprising to see José Miranda come out unscathed. He actually enjoyed one of his biggest moments as a big-leaguer on Saturday night, launching a key two-run double in the eighth inning of a close win, but overall he's been woefully unproductive. Miranda's slash line sits at .117/.159/.217 after a 2-for-16 week that saw him continue to flail away at everything while generating a ton of poor contact. If we accept that the Twins are trying to do right by Lewis' development in sending him to Triple-A to get defensive reps and gain comfort in a less pressurized setting, it's difficult to see the consistency in logic when they're leaving Miranda out there to get bullied by MLB pitchers. At the same time, one can also see the roster realities at play. The Twins are short on corner-infield depth, with Miguel Sanó and Alex Kirilloff out of the picture indefinitely. Arraez had never played first base before a few weeks ago and now he's their sole option with any real experience there besides Miranda. Sánchez has taken some practice reps at first but he's already playing everyday in his current role. Gio Urshela could probably slide over but then your depth at third base is sapped. With all that being said, the Twins can't continue to run Miranda out there much longer as he struggles to stay afloat, so they're gonna need to figure something out. TRENDING STORYLINE The answer to the above dilemma could be solved by one (or both) of two players currently in Triple-A with the Saints. Kirilloff is trying to rediscover his swing and offensive ability as he fights his way through lingering wrist pain in the wake of last year's surgery. He offered some reason for encouragement on Wednesday when he went 4-for-6 with a home run and double – his first two extra-base hits of the season – but the rest of the week saw him tap five singles in 16 at-bats, and he struck out three times on Sunday. It looks as though it's going to be awhile for Kirilloff. That may not be the case for Lewis, who is getting a crash course in defensive versatility as the Twins prepare to recall him to play alongside Correa in a utility role. Lewis has continued to rake since going down, batting .375 with a double and home run in four games. He has amazingly seen no in-game action defensively yet at his new positions, but at least he's getting a feel for the hot corner and outfield. One wonders how just much the Twins want to see him get acclimated before they're comfortable bringing him back. They have the luxury of a continuing soft patch in the schedule, which might give them leeway in making the sacrifices required to keep Lewis' bat in the minors. I wonder if the goal is to have him dialed and ready to step in for good around the start of June, when the competition starts getting a whole lot tougher and they'll want to bring everything they've got. LOOKING AHEAD Tough competition won't be a factor in the coming week, as the Twins return home for seven games against the Tigers and Royals, against whom they are a combined 7-2 this season. They would need to go at least 7-3 in the next 10 games – all against Detroit and Kansas City – in order to complete a 20-win May, which the Twins previously accomplished in 2019 and 2015. MONDAY, 5/23: TIGERS @TWINS – RHP Elvin Rodriguez v. RHP Chris Archer TUESDAY, 5/24: TIGERS @TWINS – RHP Beau Brieske v. RHP Sonny Gray WEDNESDAY, 5/25: TIGERS @TWINS – TBD v. RHP Dylan Bundy THURSDAY, 5/26: ROYALS @ TWINS – LHP Daniel Lynch v. RHP Joe Ryan FRIDAY, 5/27: ROYALS @ TWINS – RHP Brad Keller v. RHP Bailey Ober SATURDAY, 5/28: ROYALS @ TWINS – RHP Brady Singer v. RHP Chris Archer SUNDAY, 5/29: ROYALS @ TWINS – RHP Zack Greinke v. RHP Sonny Gray View full article

As resident "Rock Head" I feel it's my duty to point out that this was their bullpen setup coming in to last night's game (minus Cotton, who'd been DFA'ed): You're saving Duran for a lead (and maybe trying to avoid using him, two days after back-to-back). Cano's not an option. Everyone else has thrown multiple times in the last 3 days. They were going to be putting some arms at risk if that game went to extras. Meanwhile they're trying to keep Winder stretched out to start. Not trying to defend the move or say I would've done it, but I don't find it inexcusable or even all that inexplicable. There's something very funny to me about people losing their wits because the Twins went 5-1 against Oakland instead of 6-0. Sometimes you lose!

Well then you're missing the point of this one, because it is not that Baldelli never does wrong or that he's primarily responsible for any win. It's that there are thousands of negative takes out there about his mistakes or questionable calls gone wrong, and rarely an acknowledgement of what he might be doing right. I took an opportunity to congratulate him on a well-managed game and a successful season so far. It is genuinely astonishing to me how grumpy people -- Twins fans! -- are getting about it.

Actually we have evidence to answer that question. Berrios was one of the league leaders in IP when they traded him last year.

Look I'm not saying the award is all that meaningful, or that anyone's a lock for anything as of May 17th. But MOTY tends to go to the guy managing the team that beats expectations most, and right now the Twins are at the head of that discussion.

Yeah. Definitely not like he has won that award once and finished 5th another time in his 3-year managerial career. Very outlandish suggestion,

Managers tend to soak up a lot of blame while their teams are struggling, and receive little credit when things are going well. It's the name of the game. Let's buck that norm. Rocco Baldelli is managing his ass off this year, and Monday night's win in Oakland was a perfect example. Image courtesy of Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports Managers tend to soak up a lot of blame while their teams are struggling, and receive little credit when things are going well. It's the name of the game. Let's buck that norm. Rocco Baldelli is managing his ass off this year, and Monday night's win in Oakland was a perfect example. Baldelli had the makings of a slam-dunk hire in 2019, when he became the youngest recipient of Manager of the Year in history, leading the Twins to a historic 101-win season. He followed with another division title in the COVID-shortened 2020 season. One would think such an impressive start to his managerial career would earn the guy a bit of leeway in the eyes of fans. Turns out, not so much. While experiencing his first rocky year at the helm, Rocco was routinely derided by a large portion of the fanbase and columnist hive in 2021's last-place debacle. Never mind he was supplied by the front office with Alex Colomé as his closer and the Happ-maker combo as his rotation reinforcements. Never mind dealing with a rotten hand injury-wise. Baldelli took major heat nonetheless. It's the name of the game. As this 2022 season got off to similarly ugly start, with a 4-8 record two weeks in, fans on Twitter were calling for Rocco's head and a certain desperate-for-attention local media outlet was hilariously attempting to manufacture a manager controversy. Since that 4-8 start, Baldelli's Twins are 17-7. They're winning tight games. They're playing far cleaner, crisper ball than opponents. And they're bouncing back from adversity. Tactically, Baldelli has been pressing the right buttons and his decision have paid off time and time again. Here are three examples from Monday's 3-1 victory: 1: Chris Archer pulled after four innings. It wasn't an obvious call by any means. Archer had allowed only one run on two hits over four innings. He was at just 62 pitches when Baldelli made the decision to pull him. The Twins were in the midst of a stretch with nine games in nine days. They could've tried to squeeze another inning or two. The skipper did not want to see Archer face Oakland's lineup for a third time and that was absolutely the right call. Yennier Canó came in and mowed down the next two frames, giving hitters a very different look from the starter. Griffin Jax followed with two scoreless frames, and then Tyler Duffey closed things out in a clean ninth. Another shutout showing from the relief corps. Minnesota's bullpen, despite losing one of the best relievers in baseball on the eve of Opening Day, has been phenomenal. Elite by any measure. Elite! Who would've expected this based on the personnel we saw forming this unit? Twins relief pitchers – from Canó to Jax to Joe Smith to Jhoan Duran to Emilio Pagán and beyond – are getting it done. Rocco is putting them in spots to succeed, as has been his trademark. His bullpen ranked third in the majors in WAR in 2019, and second in 2020. Baldelli quietly has an argument as the best bullpen manager in baseball. 2: Small ball pays off in the 5th inning. I'm not a big fan of small-ball tactics generally, and based on his tendencies I think it's safe to say Baldelli feels the same. (I mean, that 2019 team was basically a giant middle-finger to small ball as a concept.) But both of us could agree that it made sense to take such an approach in the fifth inning of a 1-1 game after Royce Lewis drew a leadoff walk. Nick Gordon, the #9 hitter who entered with a paltry .596 OPS, stepped in and got the bunt call. He executed, bringing up the team's best hitter with one out and a man in scoring position. Byron Buxton? Oh, you know he executed. Even if it hadn't worked out, bunting with Gordon there is a move that simply made sense. Baldelli has shown he'll go that route when it's warranted. You wonder if the dead-ball trend might compel this calculating manager to keep adjusting in that direction. 3: Buxton was on the field. There's been a whole bunch of grumbling lately about the team's "kid-gloves treatment" of Buxton. (Much of it, you'll be shocked to learn, coming from the aforementioned desperate-for-attention outlet.) Apparently it is now controversial to take a cautious approach in a 162-game season with your vitally important superstar who also happens to be banged up, and maybe the most injury-prone player in the league. Yes, Baldelli and the Twins have opened up about their intentions to manage Buxton's workload this year in hopes of keeping him off the injured list. Their plan has been successful so far, in every way. Buxton has avoided the IL – despite a few scares that continue to affect him – and the Twins are six games above .500, leading the division, even with him playing only two-thirds of the time. Winning the division and having Buxton healthy for the playoffs should be this team's utmost aspiration. It's a combination they haven't yet been able to achieve yet. Right now, Baldelli has the Twins on track to do both. And people are still complaining. SMH. Some of us appreciate you, Rocco, and see the things you're doing to help this team exceed expectations. Many won't. But that's the name of the game. View full article

The Twins have scored than three runs only twice in their past 10 games. It's clear the lineup could use some more punch. Which makes it all the more frustrating and gutting that one of their best bats is essentially incapacitated, mired in an unofficial minor-league rehab assignment with no clear endgame. Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn, USA Today The Twins have scored than three runs only twice in their past 10 games. It's clear the lineup could use some more punch. Which makes it all the more frustrating and gutting that one of their best bats is essentially incapacitated, mired in an unofficial minor-league rehab assignment with no clear endgame. Alex Kirilloff's first stretch in the majors (not counting his postseason debut in 2020) was a great example of why you shouldn't put too much stock into results over a modest sampling of at-bats, at least without taking a deeper look. He started out his career in an 0-for-15 slump, but it was clear to anyone watching that Kirilloff was hardly overmatched. He wasn't striking out and when he connected he was driving the ball. We all knew the hits were going to come. And they did, in a hurry. The outfielder broke out with a nine-game hitting streak that included three doubles and four home runs. But during that stretch – on May 3rd, while sliding into second on one of those doubles – Kirilloff hurt his wrist. And since then nothing has really been the same. He kept playing for a couple more months but managed only 13 extra-base hits in 46 games the rest of the way before undergoing surgery in July. The hope was that this procedure would correct the wrist issue while also giving him plenty of time to rehab and be ready for this 2022 season. Unfortunately, it hasn't played out like that. At no point this year has Kirilloff really looked like himself. He opened the season in a 1-for-17 slump and unlike that opening drought from last year, this one carried no signs of being a mirage. He admitted his wrist was still causing him "a lot of pain" while swinging and went on the injured list, receiving a cortisone shot. Since returning, little has changed. Statcast, which measures the quality and characteristics of batted balls, paints an almost incomprehensibly grim picture of Kirilloff's performance. His highest exit velocity all year is 100.8 MPH, which puts him in the 9th percentile of MLB hitters for Max AV. Last year he topped that number 35 times. His average exit velocity is down to 85 MPH from 91 last year. He has recorded zero barrels all season, meaning he basically has not once truly squared a ball up. Kirilloff's launch angle is what really tells the story. It's at -14.1 degrees this year, which means he is basically hitting everything directly into the ground. The extreme nature of that figure cannot be overstated – there is not a single qualified MLB player with a negative launch angle this season, much less that deep in the red. Last year there was one player in the negative (Raimel Tapia of the Rockies at -4.4). It's unheard of. Kirilloff's swing is completely broken and that is especially hard to see from a player of his natural talent, who was showing glimpses of letting that talent shine. Kirilloff says he's never been able to swing pain-free since the surgery, and he now sounds like he's just trying to cope with this new reality. "There's still discomfort, and he thinks that his swing does feel different from how it did before the surgery," wrote Do-Hyoung Park for MLB.com. "He's just not able to pinpoint the exact ways in which it feels different. It might be physical. It might be mental. It's likely some combination of both." I wish I could feel confident he was going to head to Triple-A and figure things out in short order. But Kirilloff is just so far from where he needs to be, and the path to getting there is so unclear. Playing in a doubleheader for the Saints on Sunday, he notched four hits – all singles. The former standout slugger still has yet to collect his first extra-base hit through 69 plate appearances in the majors and minors. The Twins need his bat at its full potency. Kirilloff can be a pivotal difference-maker for this lineup, as without him they are severely lacking for left-handed power. They need this swing back: Is it still within him? The 24-year-old is going to try to find something that works over the coming weeks at St. Paul. If another month or so passes without the power starting to manifest, you have to wonder if they'll turn to Plan B: another surgery. Park mentioned in his article that a procedure could be done to create more space between bones where Kirilloff's cartilage has worn away, contributing to the discomfort. He added that this surgery is "more invasive and involves shortening his ulna altogether by breaking and cutting out a section of the bone." Sounds unpleasant and undesirable. But we're now basically sorting through bad scenarios to land on the least bad. And in the meantime, Kirilloff – who already lost a full year of his career to Tommy John surgery – is watching his prime playing days pass by while he wrestles with, in his words, "one long, continuous puzzle to try to figure out." View full article