Nick Nelson

This Twins season has offered more than its fair share of early frustration, and that has been felt throughout the fan base. The rancor might be even fiercer in the South Side of Chicago, where the White Sox are in a bad way in the face of much higher expectations. They're coming to Target Field for a weekend series. Something's gotta give in this key early showdown. Everyone reading this likely aware of the numerous issues plaguing the Twins. The offense has been a complete disaster so far, with three or fewer runs scored in nine of their 13 games amidst a historically cold start. The lineup just got done fumbling away a huge get-right opportunity, scoring four runs in three games against a sub par Kansas City pitching staff. The bullpen has already sprung some worrisome leaks, with Tyler Duffey's immense struggles intensified by a longing for Taylor Rogers. Byron Buxton has already had an injury scare. Alex Kirilloff's wrist immediately resurfaced as a big problem. Minnesota has yet to win a series and already finds itself in a 5-8 hole, which understandably is panicking a lot of fans more than it probably should given what we all went through last year. The Twins, and especially their much-hyped collection of bats, return home with much to prove this weekend. They'll be facing a team that is itself completely out of sorts and driving a deep sense of discontent among its followers. Coming into the season, the White Sox were clear favorites in the AL Central, and sported some of the highest odds for a World Series title. They looked the part while jumping out to a 6-2 start. But Chicago has since dropped four straight and just got swept out of Cleveland in a series where they were pretty thoroughly dismantled. Like the Twins, the White Sox are seeing their offense short-circuit. They've gone seven straight games without scoring more than three runs. Like the Twins, they've already had an injury scare with their superstar center fielder (Luis Robert exited Thursday's game with a groin strain, although it's said to be minor). Like Twins fans, Sox fans are ruing the impactful loss of a pitcher who they let get away. Carlos Rodon, who departed as a free agent without receiving so much as a qualifying offer from Chicago, is 2-0 with a 1.06 ERA and MLB-leading 15.4 K/9 rate through his first three starts. Meanwhile Dallas Keuchel's ERA sits at 16.50 after two turns. And if you think Twins fans have been cranky about the recent performance of their team, you should just see some of the frustration flowing by White Sox faithful. Below you can find a small sampling of the tweets that came across my feed on Thursday from Sox fans: There's no such thing as a "must-win series" in April and it's far too early for either team to be feeling a true sense of desperation. But these three games sure do feel like they carry an added level of weight, especially when you consider the stakes outside of all this chaos. For the Twins, or any other team, the path to a Central division title goes through the White Sox. This will be the first match-up between the two, and the last until July. Can the Twins kick the division favorite while they're down, at home, while reinvigorating a fed-up fan base? Or will the powerful White Sox unleash their pent-up angst on a team they thoroughly handled in 2021 while overtaking the division mantle? Like I said: one way or another, something's gotta give. Should be a fun weekend. Or else really, really not fun. View full article

The Twins had one of the best bullpens in baseball in 2019 and in 2020. In 2021 the front office handed him a closer that imploded, and then this year they traded his best reliever (by far) on the eve of Opening Day. Bullpen management has been a clear strength for Baldelli overall.

Tyler Duffey's season is off to an absolutely awful start. No matter how bad you think it is ... it's worse. After learning a stark lesson last year about how early high-leverage relief meltdowns can torpedo a season, how long will the Twins stick with their most tenured pitcher? To suggest that Duffey is solely responsible for the two losses he's been tagged with is not quite fair. In both cases he was working with an extremely thin late-game lead thanks to an offense that just can't seem to get going. Nevertheless, both on April 9th against Seattle and on Tuesday night against Kansas City, Duffey entered with a fresh inning and one-run lead. In both cases, those leads turned to deficits (and eventual losses) on his watch. As a result, Duffey enters play on Wednesday with the worst Win Probability Added (-0.88) among all major-league players. If this feels familiar, there's a reason. In 2021, Alex Colomé had the worst WPA in the majors by a wide margin for the month of April. We saw the effect his implosion had on the course of the Twins season. It's difficult not to feel a sense of déjà vu. Now, it also must be noted that we're dealing with incredible small sample sizes here. Duffey has made only three appearances this season. Making rash decisions on such a basis tends to be unwise. For example, Liam Hendriks also finds himself near the bottom of the WPA leaderboard – I doubt the White Sox are about to bump him into mop-up duty. But there is really no optimism to be drawn from Duffey's performance. He looks TERRIBLE. It seemed clear that he was on the road to regression last year as his peripherals all slid downward, but it was hard to envision such an extraordinary manifestation of this regression so rapidly. The main problem is that Duffey's fastball, which needs to be a reliable mainstay to set up his breaking ball, is an unusable pitch. He has thrown it 22 times so far and produced zero swings and misses. When putting the four-seamer in play, opponents are 4-for-6 with two doubles and a home run. The average exit velocity on this contact is a whopping 103 MPH. Good grief. Rocco Baldelli is short on alternatives at the back end of the bullpen presently, which casts a pall on the decision to trade Taylor Rogers on the eve of Opening Day. (Rogers, by the way, is 5-for-5 in save attempts with a 0.00 ERA for the Padres.) But using Duffey in big spots is simply not an option right now. He needs to be relegated to low leverage and unless things change quickly he's probably going to be on DFA watch. It's unfortunate to see from a well-liked player who's been with the organization for so long. But the Twins don't have the luxury of letting sentimentality affect their decision-making. Baldelli simply cannot stand idly by and let another season spin off the rails out of deference to a bad relief pitcher based on nothing more than stature and track record. He just can't. View full article

In their first full week of the 2022 season, the Twins experienced many ugly and unsettling moments. While it looks like they dodged disaster with a few key health scares, the glaring shortcomings of the lineup and bullpen continue to instill fright in fans. A familiar story. And as things stand, the Twins are back where they ended 2021: last place. Last Week's Game Results: Game 4 | MIN 4, SEA 0: Twins Split Series Behind Bundy Game 5 | LAD 7, MIN 2: Bullpen Collapses in Rainy Affair Game 6 | LAD 7, MIN 0: Kershaw Perfect as Dodgers Dominate Game 7 | MIN 8, BOS 4: Ryan Spoils Fenway Home Opener Game 8 | BOS 4, MIN 0: Bats Go Quiet Again in Boston Game 9 | BOS 8, MIN 1: Another Bullpen Meltdown Leads to Blowout Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 4/11 through Sun, 4/17 *** Record Last Week: 2-4 (Overall: 3-6) Run Differential Last Week: -15 (Overall: -11) Standing: 5th Place in AL Central (3.0 GB) NEWS & NOTES I tried knocking on wood last week when I mentioned that the Twins had entered the season with a relatively clean bill of health. We all knew it wouldn't work. Unsurprisingly, things took a quick turn on the injury front. On Tuesday, Jorge Alcalá was placed on IL with elbow inflammation – an ominous early sign for the right-hander, whose velocity had been noticeably down all spring from 2021. Griffin Jax joined the bullpen in his place. One day later, the Twins placed Alex Kirilloff on the shelf while revealing that his right wrist issues from last year are persisting, despite undergoing surgery nine months ago. Trevor Larnach, off to a brutal start in Triple-A following his second-half spiral last season, was the choice to replace Kirilloff on the roster. Also on Wednesday, the team designated reliever Jharel Cotton and added Dereck Rodriguez to the 40-man roster. It was a puzzling move to say the least; the Twins claimed Cotton very early in the offseason and essentially had him locked into their bullpen picture all along. He looked pretty good in his first two appearances, although he did struggle with control in the cold on Tuesday night. Exposing him to waivers so hastily, in order to add a fungible journeyman? It's weird. We'll see if Cotton makes it through and sticks around. Friday and Saturday brought the season's biggest scares on the injury front, although thankfully it appears that the Twins avoided seriously bad outcomes on either front. First, Byron Buxton hurt his knee while sliding awkwardly into second in the series opener in Boston. Optically it was horrifying. He slammed the ground in frustration and instantly removed himself from the game instantly. But in a rare showing of mercy from the injury gods, scans showed no structural damage and Buxton is only expected to return this week. Saturday's game saw Sonny Gray, the front office's biggest offseason addition to the rotation, pull himself in the second inning. It turned out he was bothered by a sore hamstring, and although Gray – unlike Buxton – didn't avoid the injured list (Cody Stashak was activated in his stead), there's optimism his stay there will be short. In the meantime, adapting the rotation to his absence will be easy, since the Twins can simply go back to a standard five-man setup. HIGHLIGHTS Early returns on Minnesota's buy-low free agency gambles in the rotation are quite good. As far as first impressions go, you can't do much better than Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer in their Twins debuts. Bundy shut down the Mariners on Monday night with five innings of one-hit ball, allowing just one hit and one walk. Although he could hardly be described as "dominant," generating six whiffs and two strikeouts against 18 hitters, the righty was efficient and effective. He threw 47 of 67 pitches for strikes, and easily could've given the Twins another inning or two with a full spring build-up. The next night, Archer delivered four shutout innings against an imposing Dodgers lineup – a performance made to look even more impressive by the way said lineup decimated the rest of the Twins pitching staff. Like Bundy, Archer's performance was more workmanlike than overpowering, as he registered five swinging strikes on 63 pitches. But his two biggest downfalls from the last two seasons – walks and home runs – were nowhere to be seen. Archer kept the ball in the yard and issued no free passes while flashing impressive velocity. If even one of these first glimpses is indicative of what's to come, that's a HUGE development for this year's rotation. Speaking of big developments for the rotation, Joe Ryan was absolutely dazzling in his second start of the season, silencing Boston's imposing lineup over six innings of one-run ball. Leaning heavily on his underrated slider, Ryan piled up seven strikeouts on 16 swings and misses. He walked no one and threw an exceptional 73% of his 82 pitches for strikes. A tremendously encouraging performance. Rounding out a strong week for the starting corps was Bailey Ober, who tossed six innings on Sunday with just two unearned runs allowed. Altogether, Twins starters have posted a 3.12 ERA with just 29 hits and 11 walks allowed in 40 ⅓ innings – and this while facing some pretty dang good opponents. LOWLIGHTS The bullpen has been a mixed bag so far, but the low points have been costly and alarming. The last thing you want is a relief unit that allows things to spiral out of control suddenly, and we saw it happen twice for this group in the last week alone. Both of these incidents involved Caleb Thielbar. On Tuesday, he and Jhon Romero combined for an eighth-inning meltdown that saw the Dodgers push across six runs on five hits and two walks. On Sunday, Thielbar was charged with four earned runs on four hits while recording just one out, ballooning his ERA to 23.63. That's a smidge lower than the 27.00 ERA that Stashak finds himself with, after coughing up two runs on three hits in two-thirds of an inning after replacing Thielbar. Stashak posted a 6.89 ERA in 15 ⅔ innings last year and after this disastrous 2022 debut, it's worth wondering if Cotton was the right guy to jettison. Wednesday was another tough day for the pen, with Rodriguez and Jax giving up a combined four runs in five innings following an inauspicious debut from Chris Paddack (4 IP, 3 ER). Meanwhile the bats flailed away against Clayton Kershaw, who was perfect through seven innings before departing. In general, this was an egregiously rough week for the offense, which got shut out twice in six games and has blown away the franchise record for fewest hits ever through nine games. Basically everyone is taking part in the struggles: Miguel Sanó went 2-for-20 last week. He did coax five walks while hitting his first home run, but Sanó's season is off to an abjectly awful start, especially when you account for the blatant sloppiness on defense at first base. Max Kepler went 4-for-24 and is batting .167 through nine games. He looks the same as always – extremely pull-heavy and easily subdued by defensive shifts. The lack of evolution is frustrating. Nonetheless, he batted cleanup on Sunday. Carlos Correa, the shining prize of Minnesota's offseason, has yet to find any rhythm at the plate. After going 2-for-20 last week, he's now batting .133 with a .512 OPS and 39% K-rate on the season. Too early to cast any judgment but he's off to a dreadful start for the new club. Gio Urshela went 3-for-16 with no extra-base hits and no walks. He's now got more GIDP (2) than XBH (1) this year. Ryan Jeffers and Gary Sanchez were a combined 5-for-31 (.161) with two walks and 16 strikeouts. By the way, Mitch Garver has a .382 OBP with the Rangers and is regularly batting third or fourth for them. Realistically, this team's success was always going to depend on a strong offense supporting a solid yet unspectacular pitching staff. The latter has mostly been doing its part, despite some hiccups from the bullpen, but the bats are not holding up their end. In five of Minnesota's six losses, they have essentially give the team no chance to win by scoring two runs or fewer. If this continues ... well, it's scary to think about. TRENDING STORYLINE Is the Justin Upton dream dead? It sure feels that way, now that the Twins have made a roster move to bring in Kyle Garlick while making no reported inroads with the free agent, who is available to sign anywhere. It's odd how few rumblings there have been since Upton cleared waivers last week. Is he just going to retire (or at least take the year off) and count the millions he'll make anyway? I could hardly blame him. One thing is for sure: with Kirilloff's status in limbo and the Minnesota offense falling on its face out of the gate, any kind of legitimate external boost would be welcome. LOOKING AHEAD After closing out another wraparound weekend series in Boston on Monday morning (ALERT: 10:10 AM CT start time), Minnesota will get a welcome respite from the challenging early slate with three games in Kansas City against the 3-5 Royals. Then the Twins return home for a crucial early-season series against the division-favorite White Sox. If the coming week goes well, it'll do a ton to alleviate the valid early concerns from fans who still feel sour after the disappointment of 2021. If it goes poorly? Hoo boy. MONDAY, 4/18: TWINS @ RED SOX – RHP Dylan Bundy v. LHP Rich Hill TUESDAY, 4/19: TWINS @ ROYALS – RHP Chris Archer v. LHP Daniel Lynch WEDNESDAY, 4/20: TWINS @ ROYALS – RHP Chris Paddack v. RHP Zack Greinke THURSDAY, 4/21: TWINS @ ROYALS – RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Brad Keller FRIDAY, 4/22: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Vince Velasquez v. RHP Bailey Ober SATURDAY, 4/23: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – LHP Dallas Keuchel v. RHP Dylan Bundy SUNDAY, 4/24: WHITE SOX @ TWINS – RHP Jimmy Lambert v. RHP Chris Archer View full article

Tuesday might get rained out. Highly doubtful on Wednesday.

Based on... ? A handful of good games at Triple-A? I assure you, the Twins are looking for a RH complement to Kirilloff and Kepler in the corner OF spots. Cave is not a roster fit at the moment.

The Twins opened their season with a pair of close losses that could've easily gone the other way. Then they busted out the power bats with a dazzling offensive display in Sunday's lopsided win. It was an altogether encouraging weekend that saw newcomers and stars shining brightly. Let's break down the action. Last Week's Game Recaps: Game 1 | SEA 2, MIN 1: Robbie Ray Silences Twins Bats in Opener Game 2 | SEA 4, MIN 3: Duffey's Blown Save Spoils Buxton Heroics Game 3 | MIN 10, SEA 4: Power Bats Detonate in Blowout Win Weekly Snapshot: Fri, 4/8 through Sun, 4/10 *** Record Last Week: 1-2 (Overall: 1-2) Run Differential Last Week: +4 (Overall: +4) Standing: T-2nd Place in AL Central (1.0 GB) NEWS & NOTES The Twins came into this 2022 season with a remarkably clean bill of health (knocks on wood). Randy Dobnak and Cody Stashak both opened on the injured list, but neither was a key part of the team's plans. For the most part everyone seems to be in good shape, including some pitchers who loomed as question marks coming in. Let's hope this trend continues. Early-season injury woes played a huge role in tanking the '21 season in April and May. HIGHLIGHTS The new guys are making strong first impressions. In Friday's season opener, Gio Urshela put the Twins on the board for the first time in 2022 with a solo homer off of Robbie Ray. On Saturday, pitching staff newcomers Sonny Gray, Joe Smith and Jharel Cotton combined to allow two runs over 6 ⅔ innings. Emilio Pagán added a scoreless frame with two strikeouts in his Twins debut on Sunday. Gary Sánchez came just a few feet short of introducing himself to fans with a walk-off home run on Friday, but he didn't miss two days later when he launched a first-inning grand slam to the third deck, opening up a huge early lead for the Twins. Minnesota's flashiest new addition, Carlos Correa, has already shown what he can do with the bat, launching a 458-foot moonshot as part of Sunday's homer barrage, and we've also seen his defensive prowess in action several times. He played a key role in the weekend's finest highlight in the field – a perfect relay throw to gun down the go-ahead run at home plate on Sunday afternoon. As impressive as all these acquisitions were, one thing is clear: It's Byron Buxton's world, and everyone else is just living in it. The newly locked up face of the franchise started his season with a brief quiet spell, going hitless in his first seven at-bats, and then rattled off three straight home runs. The first of them, a go-ahead two-run homer in the eighth inning on Saturday night, should've lifted the team to victory. It was another entry in a shocking and depressing saga of Twins teams spoiling signature Buxton moments, but watching him scream into the dugout after unloading on that pitch was awesome nonetheless. Buxton's two dingers on Sunday helped set the tone for a bomba breakout, with the Twins piling up five homers in a route of the Mariners. But the explosiveness this weekend wasn't limited to the plate. Jhoan Duran made his big-league debut on the mound in Friday's opener, and he lived up to the billing. The 24-year-old showed remarkable poise, allowing the first two batters he faced to reach base on singles before bearing down and striking out four straight, all swinging. He finished with two scoreless innings, keeping the deficit at one and giving the Twins a chance at a late comeback. If Duran can stay healthy he's going to be a pivotal weapon at the back of this bullpen, that's clear. LOWLIGHTS It didn't take long for the Twins to feel the loss of their best reliever. On Saturday, a dramatic late home run gave Minnesota a one-run lead going into the ninth. In a spot where he would've normally loved to go to his longtime bullpen stalwart Taylor Rogers, Rocco Baldelli turned instead to his next most-tenured reliever. It didn't go well. Making his season debut, Duffey quickly coughed up the lead, allowing two runs on three hits. He frankly looked terrible, inducing just one swinging strike on 18 pitches. The blown save felt very familiar to last year's Alex Colomé experience, not just in terms of results, but even stylistically: ugly pitches out over the plate in key spots. Duffey has a lost a ton of juice since his peak in 2019, when he was one of the league's most dominant relievers. Back then he averaged 94 MPH with his fastball; on Saturday, he maxed out at 93.5 and usually worked in the 91-92 range. His mid-80s knuckle curve didn't looked very sharp. So far this has all the makings of another step downward in Duffey's regression. If it continues, hopefully Baldelli takes notice and adjusts the bullpen hierarchy accordingly. Duffey should not be getting critical high-leverage looks merely because of his experience and tenure. There are much better arms in this pen right now. Offensively, it's hard to complain much about a weekend that saw the Twins tally 14 runs with nine homers in three games, but once again this lineup is looking a bit too dependent on the long ball for run-scoring. It'd be nice to see a bit more rally action from, and that'll require some of the laggards to get going. Those include Alex Kirilloff (0-for-11) and Miguel Sanó (0-for-10). TRENDING STORYLINE The Twins bench is in flux. The team chose to carry Gilberto Celestino as fourth outfielder out of camp, but this is clearly a temporary arrangement. There's little doubt the team is angling for free agent Justin Upton, who cleared waivers over the weekend after being released by the Angels in late spring. Upton is a far cry from the star commodity of his heyday, but he's a nice fit on this Twins roster as an experienced corner outfielder who can still mash left-handed pitching. Although he struggled overall last year with a .705 OPS, Upton did slash .22/.355/.483 against lefties and has an .852 career OPS against them. He would also add ANOTHER first overall draft pick to an organization that already has Correa, Tim Beckham and Royce Lewis on hand. The Twins certainly aren't alone in their interest in Upton, now that he's free from his big contract in LA. I suspect we'll find out one way or another by early this week. If the team is unable to land the veteran, they'll likely swap out Celestino for Kyle Garlick, which would require a 40-man move. LOOKING AHEAD A tough week lies ahead for the Twins, who will wrap up their four-game series against Seattle on Monday before welcoming the star-studded Los Angeles Dodgers to Target Field for a short midweek series. From there, it's a day off on Thursday followed by a trip to Fenway for four games against the Red Sox. Over the next three days, we'll get a look at the back half of Minnesota's rebuilt rotation, with new additions Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer and Chris Paddack starting in consecutive games. It'll be interesting to see where Rocco goes with the rotation after that. MONDAY, 4/11: MARINERS @ TWINS – RHP Chris Flexen v. RHP Dylan Bundy TUESDAY, 4/12: DODGERS @ TWINS – TBD v. RHP Chris Archer WEDNESDAY, 4/13: DODGERS @ TWINS – RHP Walker Buehler v. RHP Chris Paddack FRIDAY, 4/15: TWINS @ RED SOX – RHP Joe Ryan v. RHP Nick Pivetta SATURDAY, 4/16: TWINS @ RED SOX – RHP Sonny Gray v. RHP Tanner Houck SUNDAY, 4/17: TWINS @ RED SOX – RHP Bailey Ober v. RHP Michael Wacha View full article

Better late than never. The lockout and then weather led to multiple delays for Minnesota Twins Opening Day, but now it's finally here. Today at Target Field, Robbie Ray and the Mariners will kick off the 2022 season against (rookie!) Joe Ryan and your Minnesota Twins. Get yourself fully ready with the links and resources below, including analysis of today's pitching tilt, breakdowns of each position on the roster, top prospect profiles, and more. It's all ahead. Breaking Down the Opening Day Roster On Thursday, the Twins finalized their Opening Day roster, with a few surprises rounding out the fringes. The most noteworthy names on the official 28-man squad heading into the season are rookie Josh Winder (serving as a long man in relief), Gilberto Celestino serving as the fourth outfielder (very temporarily, I suspect), and newcomer Jhon Romero edging Griffin Jax for a final bullpen spot. Matthew Taylor wrote a great article posing one pivotal question for each player on the 28-man roster. Oh, and the shakeup we'll cover next also added a very surprising twist to the season-opening mix. Catch Up on the Last-Minute Trade Between Minnesota and San Diego You can never count this front office out. Just when it looked like they were going to roll into the regular season with a conspicuously thin starting rotation, the Twins pulled the trigger on a big trade on the morning of MLB Opening Day. In a last-minute stunner, the team traded its longtime closer and best reliever Taylor Rogers, along with Brent Rooker, to San Diego for starter Chris Paddack and reliever Emilio Pagán. Seth Stohs offered some immediate reaction when the move was announced on Thursday morning, and Ted Schwerzler followed up with analysis of the trade's impact. Joe Ryan vs. Robbie Ray: How Big is Seattle's Matchup Edge? It has the makings of a serious mismatch on paper: the reigning Cy Young winner going up against a rookie with five MLB starts under his belt. JD Cameron has you covered with a full breakdown of the Ryan vs. Ray tilt. As he notes, "Ray could not contrast more markedly with Ryan in experience, build, or arsenal." Elsewhere, Andrew Mahlke wrote about how the Twins are showing major confidence in Ryan by giving him the Opening Day nod. Theo Tollefson pointed out that Ryan is in rare air as a rookie. Our Official Season Preview Guide The Twins experienced a lot of change over the past offseason. Your best bet for getting fully up to speed is by grabbing a copy of Twins Daily 2022 Season Preview. Featuring contributions from JD, Lucas, Nash, Rena, David, Seth, and myself, this PDF breaks down each of the club's biggest offseason moves – the Correa signing, the Buxton extension, the Gray trade, and much more – while also highlighting rookies who are likely to debut and laying out 22 crucial things to know before the first pitch. The guide is free to all caretakers. Buy in for a minimum of one month at six bucks, and it's yours. Stick with us if you're so inclined. But make sure you grab the guide. Position by Position Roster Analysis Over the past few weeks, I've been running through in-depth breakdowns of every position on the team as the season gets underway – from catchers to relievers. The questions we seek to answer in these pieces: What's the outlook? How's the depth? What's the plan going forward? Read up on the 2022 Minnesota Twins roster: Position Analysis: Catcher Position Analysis: First Base Position Analysis: Second Base Position Analysis: Third Base Position Analysis: Shortstop Position Analysis: Left Field Position Analysis: Center Field Position Analysis: Right Field Position Analysis: Designated Hitter Position Analysis: Starting Pitcher Position Analysis: Relief Pitcher Get Acquainted with the Top Prospects We recently unveiled our Twins top prospects tracker. I highly recommend bookmarking it and checking back often. It'll be updated throughout the season as stocks rise and fall. If you're looking for a detailed analysis of the organization's best upcoming talent heading into this 2022 season, you can read my overview of the system or click through to profiles on each of the top 20 Twins prospects (spoiler alert: MANY of them are going to debut this year): 20. Steve Hajjar, LHP: Big 6-foot-5 southpaw drafted in the 2nd round last year, touted for his changeup. 19. Edouard Julien, INF: Versatile fielder drew 101 BB in 112 G last year at Single-A, good for a .434 OBP. 18. Spencer Steer, INF: Mashed 24 homers in a breakthrough power season, playing mostly 2B and 3B. 17. Blayne Enlow, RHP: Looked to be clicking last year before TJ surgery, which will cost him '22 season. 16. Emmanuel Rodríguez, OF: Extreme contact woes marred otherwise highly encouraging rookie-ball debut. 15. Louie Varland, RHP: Honored as the org's top minor-league pitcher in '21 thanks to dazzling A-ball performance. 14. Cole Sands, RHP: Polished righty has posted a 2.53 ERA, 10.3 K/9 in two seasons since joining Twins system. 13. Matt Wallner, OF: Huge raw power will play if he can shore up his plate discipline and whiffing tendency. 12. Gilberto Celestino, OF: Was overwhelmed during rushed MLB debut, but the skills are undeniable. 11. Noah Miller, SS: 38th pick in '21 draft out of HS swings from both sides with legit chance to stick at short. 10. Josh Winder, RHP: Absurdly dominant between AA/AAA last year, and is basically ready to go at 25. 9. Chase Petty, RHP: Team's top draft pick from last summer was a high-school phenom with 100-MPH heat. Traded to Reds for Sonny Gray. 8. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP: Mechanics and control hold back premium arsenal, but he's still young. 7. Jhoan Duran, RHP: Imposing flamethrower has makeup to dominate but must get past scary elbow issues. 6. Matt Canterino, RHP: His 1.13 ERA and 76 Ks in 48 IP since being drafted in 2019 say it all, good and bad. 5. Joe Ryan, RHP: Amazing numbers in minors were made to look legit during 5-start run with Twins. 4. Jordan Balazovic, RHP: Safest combination of ceiling, floor, and proven durability among arms in the system. 3. José Miranda, 2B/3B: Perennial breakthrough candidate broke through with minor-league season for the ages. 2. Royce Lewis, SS: Missed 2 straight years, but has the elite skills, athleticism, and drive to catch up fast. 1. Austin Martin, SS/OF: Headliner of 2022 deadline sell-off is a worthy top prize, with evident star qualities. Finally, a Word to Our Community I originally published this stream of thoughts on Twitter, but figured I would do so here as well, because you all are the people I was really addressing: It's almost Opening Day. An Opening Day some of us (legitimately) thought would never come. I'm feeling really excited and just gonna gush a little bit. In February we celebrated the 10th birthday of Twins Daily. It's been a wild and amazing ride. I feel both proud and humbled to have played a small role in it. John Bonnes, Parker Hagemen, Seth Stohs and Brock Beauchamp are the best partners and friends a guy could ask for. We've developed something so special that we're hoping to extend it into new markets. We joined forces with a Brewers site, Brewer Fanatic, with the goal of bringing our same model of community-based independent coverage to fans in Milwaukee. It's a movement! We also just launched a "Caretaker" program at TD which gives members a way to financially support our operation, mainly because they want to see it sustain and grow while supporting our creators. The response has been unbelievable. Seriously. Twins Daily is, and always has been, driven by the talented and dedicated people that contribute their time and energy to its cause. We have assembled so many that I can't even try to fit them all in a series of tweets. Y'all are amazing. You are the future. Baseball is ultimately a small part of life. Following it closely is a hobby and diversion. But it matters, a lot, to so many of us. That's become clearer than ever over the past few years as fans have repeatedly grappled with the prospect of losing their beloved summer pastime. Personally, this sport has connected me to John, and Seth, and Parker, and Brock. And basically everyone I know on through this community. I never would've guessed when I started a blogspot in 2005 that this obsessive side hustle would turn into something so integral to who I am. Our site's success instills in me a deep faith that this model can keep carrying fandom and online coverage forward. I'm stoked. The internet, for all its imperfections, is perfect for bringing together all sorts of random folks around a shared passion and pursuit. We're not competing with mainstream media or traditional journalism. We're adding to them. Twins fans have never had access to more awesome content and diverse perspectives. That was the entire goal of this endeavor from the start. THANK YOU. See you at the ballpark. View full article

According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Twins are on the verge of acquiring San Diego Padres starter Chris Paddack. The 26-year-old would bring a controllable arm with upside to the needy Minnesota rotation. Although Derek Falvey had suggested that the team was ready to roll with its existing group of starters, fans know better than to take such remarks at face value. On the eve of (postponed) Opening Day, the Twins look to be adding an intriguing asset in Paddack, who was a top prospect turned outstanding big-league starter not so long ago. Details are scant at this point, but Rosenthal reports that the Twins are "working to acquire" the right-hander, who was known to be available after the Padres traded for A's starter Sean Manaea (thought to be another Twins target) last weekend. That language does not suggest any finality, but Rosenthal is not the type to report something like this on a whim. It's likely a deal is about to materialize. Of note: Trevor Larnach was pulled from the St. Paul Saints lineup just ahead of game time tonight. Paddack was ranked by MLB.com as the 34th-best prospect in baseball ahead of 2019, and arrived in the majors that year with a bang, posting a 3.33 ERA and 2.4 fWAR over 26 starts (140 innings) for the Padres. He struggled a bit in the shortened 2020 season, posting a 4.73 ERA in 12 starts, and last year was rough – at least according to his 5.07 ERA. But his 3.78 FIP and 3.87 xFIP suggest a good amount of bad luck was at play. He kept the homers in check, kept his velocity steady (averaging 95 MPH with the fastball), and maintained his excellent control. With a few tweaks, the Twins could get Paddack back on track as a strong #2/3 type starter, and he's under team control for three more seasons. Don't be fooled by the numbers from last year – which new Minnesota bench coach Jayce Tingler saw play out first-hand as Padres manager. This would be a big get. View full article

The Twins have not shown a propensity to invest heavily in their bullpen. Instead, their preferred approach is to gather a wealth of interesting, flexible options and sort through them during the season. It can work, but as they learned last year, sometimes the learning experience can be very costly. Projected Bullpen: Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey, Caleb Thielbar, Jorge Alcalá, Jharel Cotton, Joe Smith, Jhoan Duran, Danny Coulombe Depth/Prospects: Griffin Jax, Jhon Romero, Jovani Moran, Juan Minaya, Cody Stashak, Jake Faria, Yennier Cano, Drew Strotman, Lewis Thorpe, Trevor Megill, Ronny Henriquez THE GOOD During the first three months of the 2021 season, Twins relievers ranked 26th in the majors in the fWAR, 27th in FIP, and 25th in WPA. During the last three months, they ranked 13th, 15th and 4th in those respective categories. You might not have noticed it, due to the team's total irrelevance after May or so, but the bullpen improved dramatically from the first to second half. It was night and day. And it's not the first time we've seen this pattern play out. Back in 2019, Twins relievers ranked 10th in the majors in fWAR and 12th in FIP over the first three months, then led all of baseball in both categories the rest of the way. The front office and coaching staff have shown they can make this work: creating depth, then sorting through it until you find the right mix you can trust. Meanwhile, when looking at how poorly this regime's biggest bullpen splashes have panned in Alex Colomé and Addison Reed, who both looked like relatively safe plays, it's easy to understand why they'd opt against pouring investments into established commodities. There's a lot to like here. Taylor Rogers has consistently been one of the league's most effective late-inning relievers since 2018, and his sterling performance this spring helps alleviate concerns around any lingering effects from last year's finger injury. Tyler Duffey and Caleb Thielbar have proven to be rock-solid setup men. Jorge Alcalá offered real signs of optimism with his 2.88 ERA and .195 BAA last year after the All-Star break, playing a huge role in the bullpen's second-half turnaround. Joe Smith and Jharel Cotton were nice veteran pickups for the middle innings. There are also a some wild cards in the mix adding another level of intrigue. Chief among them is Jhoan Duran, who has been dazzling people with his incredible stuff this spring. He appears to be healthy and throwing at his best while the Twins are transitioning him into a full-on relief role. It's a perfect storm. He looms as a monster difference-maker in this pen. I've written about Griffin Jax as a guy whose stock could skyrocket in a relief role, and like Duran, the team is poised to tap that potential in short order. Jovani Moran has flashed good stuff from the left side. And any of the club's various pitching prospects – many of whom were discussed in our SP analysis – have a chance to impact the bullpen, especially with the likelihood that Minnesota will be looking for length and multi-inning options. THE BAD Last year we learned about the downside of sorting out a bullpen during the season: those early lesson through failure can be extremely costly. By the time Colomé pulled it together and the Twins moved on from some laggards, the relief unit had already played a huge role in tanking their season. This is the nature of the bullpen: it is a fickle beast, and yet so dramatically influential to the outcome of a season. Great bullpens carry teams into the playoffs and beyond. Bad bullpens can put an otherwise decent squad out of the running by June. This year's unit for the Twins really feels like it could go either way. That's always somewhat true, given the volatility of relief pitching, but the variability feels especially high right now. Rogers was at his best before going down last year, but we need to see him keep on cooking. At 31, his age is becoming as much of a regression factor as his injury. Duffey's performance last year included a bunch of ominous signs – most notably a drop in velocity and a HUGE drop in whiff rate. Alcalá has had his moments but feels hard to trust given the inconsistency. And let's keep in mind, this represents their first line of defense. Once you get past these established contributors, you're looking at mostly unproven prospects and minor-league signings. I'm not going to wring my hands over the lack of spending at this position (where the sum total of salaries will barely surpass that of White Sox closer Liam Hendriks alone), because relief free agency becomes such a hazardous game of darts, as we've seen. If the Twins can identify the right guys, implement the right tweaks, and pull the right strings, they'll be in good shape. Unfortunately, last year was not a great confidence-builder in their ability to do so. At least not until too late. THE BOTTOM LINE Lots of talent. Lots of question marks. The Twins have shown in the past they can handle a bullpen – they methodically developed the league's best in 2019, and it carried over to 2020 where they tied Tampa for the AL lead in bullpen fWAR – but last year's unraveling dimmed their shine. It's a big "prove it" year for Wes Johnson, Pete Maki, and the entire Twins pitching braintrust. Was 2021 a blip or a breakdown? Catch Up on the Rest of Our 2022 Previews: Position Analysis: Catcher Position Analysis: First Base Position Analysis: Second Base Position Analysis: Third Base Position Analysis: Shortstop Position Analysis: Left Field Position Analysis: Center Field Position Analysis: Right Field Position Analysis: Designated Hitter Position Analysis: Starting Pitcher View full article

The Twins entered the offseason with an aggressive need for high-end pitching – one which they basically half-addressed with their trades and signings. For better or worse, the front office will lean hard this season on an internal pipeline it's spent half a decade developing. Projected Rotation: Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer Depth: Josh Winder, Chi-Chi Gonzalez, Cole Sands, Devin Smeltzer, Randy Dobnak Prospects: Jordan Balazovic, Matt Canterino, Simeon Woods Richardson, Louie Varland, Blayne Enlow THE GOOD There's a lot of talent in this pipeline. It started coming to fruition a year ago, when Bailey Ober emerged as the team's steadiest starter and Joe Ryan arrived late with an eye-opening first impression. The Twins will be looking for more of where that came from this year, with a bevy of their top prospects in the high minors and at an age (23-25) where players tend to enter the big-league ranks. Whether or not it was their plan from the start to rely heavily on this group, it clearly is now after the club mostly whiffed on impact rotation additions during the offseason. One notable exception is Sonny Gray, who was acquired from Cincinnati in exchange for Chase Petty and instantly becomes the team's most accomplished starter. Gray gives the Twins some serious juice and cred at the top of the rotation. The 32-year-old owns a career 3.61 ERA and is a two-time All-Star – most recently in 2019 when he posted a 2.87 ERA and was worth 4.5 fWAR for the Reds. Gray was a successful starter in his early seasons with Oakland, but reinvented himself as a strikeout pitcher in Cincy, posting the three highest K-rates of his career while raising his swinging strike rates from the mid-20% range to low-30%. He was lights-out in his official spring debut on Sunday. Despite his track record and rep, Gray won't be the club's Opening Day starter come Thursday at Target Field. Instead that honor goes to Ryan, who is still technically a rookie after making five starts in 2021. Per Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com, he becomes just the third player since 1961 – and first in 35 years – to draw an Opening Day nod within the first six starts of his career. This decision probably has much more to do with Gray's readiness than anything else, but Ryan's done enough to earn it on his end. He's been spectacular everywhere in the minors, with a 2.67 ERA and 13.0 K/9 in three seasons. He looked great for the Twins late last year, flirting with a no-hitter in his second MLB start. He's been excellent this spring, allowing no runs on three hits over five innings with a 5-to-1 K/BB ratio. Following Ryan and Gray in the rotation, presumably, will be Ober. The big right-hander established himself and solidified his roster spot with an outstanding rookie performance. The question, of course, is whether he can back it up, but on the surface there is little reason to think Ober can't sustain as a solid mid-rotation starter. At the back end, the Twins are hoping to catch lightning with a pair of buy-low veteran free agents. Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer are interesting in that both were once heralded young arms and have earned top-10 Cy Young finishes at various points. But both are pretty far removed from sustained success. Realistically, the Twins are hoping that Bundy rebounds to his pre-2021 baseline, which was roughly an average pitcher (98 ERA+) who was reliable from a durability standpoint, while Archer – who hasn't posted an above-average ERA since 2017 – finds some semblance of his previous form. Neither is a total longshot. Either of these guys could turn into assets. But really their function is to handle early innings while prospects in the minors get up to speed and make their cases. Josh Winder, Jordan Balazovic, Matt Canterino, and Cole Sands are all among the high-upside pitchers with a very real chance of making an impact for the Twins this season. It's an exciting time. THE BAD I read the words now and they haunt me. Like corrosive acid, they eat away at my very soul. "If the Twins have ever fielded a better and deeper rotation than the one they're set to line up this year, I can't remember it," I wrote when introducing last year's starting pitching analysis. "From top to bottom (and beyond) this unit looks stacked." If I meant it in terms of a Jenga stack ready to topple, I would've been on the right track. But I didn't. After breaking through as one of the best in the league in 2019 and 2020, the pitching staff totally fell apart last year, and the rotation was a prime culprit. Twins starters ranked 25th in fWAR and ERA, and 24th in FIP and WHIP. One of their rotation mainstays, Kenta Maeda, struggled before requiring Tommy John surgery (he MIGHT make it back late this year) and the other was traded away at the deadline. Losing José Berríos hurts. A whole lot. While perhaps not living up to the lofty title of "ace," he was a clear front-line starter – one of the league's most consistent and durable pitchers. He basically never missed a start with the Twins and combined quantity with quality. La MaKina, who would've been under contract with Minnesota this year, was the real deal and he will be greatly missed. Berríos was the Twins' Opening Day starter in 2019 and 2020. Maeda took that honor last year, earning it with a Cy Young runner-up performance in '20. Now both are out of the picture, and the shift to Ryan as Opening Day starter epitomizes the front office's strategy with the rotation: shifting from proven high-caliber veterans to risky unproven minor-leaguers who aren't all that highly regarded outside of the Twins braintrust. I'm not saying it can't work. But there's a good chance it won't, and if so, this will not reflect well at all on a front office that seemingly straddled the line of reloading and rebuilding, trading their 2021 first-rounder for Gray and throwing $35 million at Carlos Correa. What's the point of all this if your rotation won't give you a chance? The optimistic side of me can buy into the idea of a rotation the features Ryan, Gray, Ober, Bundy and Archer offering enough to support a strong lineup en route to a playoff berth. But as alluded before, it's the depth behind them that frightens me. Aaron Gleeman mentioned on a recent episode of Gleeman and the Geek that Twins teams have needed an average of 17 different starters per season. With so few stable assets in place, the Twins are going to be heavily reliant on their existing talent for reinforcements beyond a thin and questionable front line. It's a bold and high-stakes vote of self-confidence. THE BOTTOM LINE Last year, it seemed like the Twins had starting pitching depth. They didn't. This year, it seems like the Twins don't have starting pitching depth. Maybe they do. Really, it comes down to largely to health, which is in many ways uncontrollable and luck-driven. The front office has left itself little margin for error on this front by investing in reclamation projects and handing the team's destiny to a stable of unproven commodities. Injuries and ill-fated signings ravaged the club's depth in 2021 and left the Twins scrambling for answers. It was understandable as a one-year blip. Another season of dreadful pitching performance will not be nearly as tolerable, and would leave Derek Falvey and Thad Levine open to all the criticism they'll receive. Their defiantly minimalist approach to the offseason pitching market will only be excusable if their methodically developed pitching pipeline pays off, and fast. Catch Up on the Rest of Our 2022 Previews: Position Analysis: Catcher Position Analysis: First Base Position Analysis: Second Base Position Analysis: Third Base Position Analysis: Shortstop Position Analysis: Left Field Position Analysis: Center Field Position Analysis: Right Field Position Analysis: Designated Hitter View full article

Update: shortly after this was published the Twins placed Cody Stashak on IL. So swap him out on that roster projection. If we assume Jax, Duran and Winder are all in, it comes down to Coulombe or Romero.

Given how things have played out, with the lockout causing a major overlap between Hot Stove season and spring training, it's only fitting that our last offseason status update comes just four days ahead of the season opener. Read on for a rundown of the front office's final (we think?) moves and a look ahead at the projected 2022 Twins roster and payroll. Around the time of our last check-in, anticipation was building for a big move to round out the rotation after the splashy addition of Carlos Correa. Such a bold showing of intention had to be followed by a similarly decisive pitching acquisition, right? It turns out, no. The Twins were evidently shut out in the trade market and so they pivoted to fill the last spot in their rotation with a fairly low-wattage signing. The bullpen received a bit more veteran depth with a couple of minor-league signings, but for the most part, it looks like this is the pitching staff Minnesota will roll with. Let's take a look at the last few players brought into this mix. Twins Make a Volatile Upside Play with Chris Archer Signing At one point, Chris Archer ranked among the best and most durable young pitchers in baseball. From 2013 through 2017 in Tampa, he almost never missed a start, piling up nearly 1,000 innings in 156 starts with a 3.60 ERA and 9.7 K/9 rate. Those days are now in the distant past. In four seasons since, the righty has thrown 287 innings with a 4.70 ERA, although the strikeout ability has remained (10.3 K/9). He didn't pitch in 2020 due to thoracic outlet surgery, and was limited to just six appearances last year in his reunion with the Rays. So, obviously a longshot. But that's why he was still available this late in the game, and why he came with such a low guaranteed price tag ($3.5M). Archer will be able to significantly increase his 2022 salary by reaching productivity thresholds, in a deal that is somewhat similar in structure to the one Rich Hill signed with Minnesota two years ago – a "pay-as-you-play" approach, as JD Cameron puts it. It's been a while since we've seen it materialize, but Archer's upside remains, and his debut in a Twins uniform on Friday offered some encouraging signs in terms of his velocity and stuff. Two More Veteran Relievers Join the Bullpen Picture A couple names you might recognize joined the Twins on minor-league deals last week: Jake Petricka and JC Ramirez. Both right-handers have thrown more than 200 innings in the majors and pitched most recently for the Angels. Neither pitcher has a significant recent track record in the majors – Ramirez hasn't appeared since 2019 and Petricka has thrown just 14 total innings since 2018. But the experience could give them a leg up on the depth chart, and Ramirez in particular is interesting because he could become a bridge-type guy capable of providing multiple innings. No More Trades for Pitching? The Twins kept on pushing for one of Oakland's two top starting pitchers known to be available. After the team signed Archer, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reported that "They also have spent the past 2 1/2 weeks attempting to pry either Frankie Montas or Sean Manaea away from Oakland without success. While the Twins have made it clear they’d like to complete a deal — and still have interest in one — the previously wheeling-and-dealing A’s haven’t recently engaged them." On Sunday, the A's finally pulled the trigger on one of these two starters – Manaea, who they were always much more motivated to deal due to his salary and expiring team control. Oakland sent the left-hander to San Diego for a fairly underwhelming return, suggesting there wasn't much of a market for him despite many teams still looking to add starters. It remains possible that the Twins could strike an 11th-hour deal for Montas or another starter. But in all likelihood, the current group is the one they're going to roll into the season with. So let's take a look at how that group shakes out. Twins 2022 Roster & Payroll Projection The team has made a bunch of cuts, narrowing down the final field of players in camp and leaving only a few decisions to be made on the bullpen and bench. Below you can find my stab at projecting the Opening Day roster. A few notes: I've got Brent Rooker filling the fourth outfield spot, if only because it's the most convenient and easy course of action. I actually have a sneaking suspicion that the Twins will choose to go with Kyle Garlick in that spot, possibly DFA-ing Rooker to make room on the 40-man roster. But we'll see. All major-league teams will have two extra roster spots for the month of April, to help offset the shortened spring ramp-up. I'm assuming the Twins will use both on pitchers and carry a 15-man staff (in fact I wouldn't be surprised if they go with 16). I've plugged in Griffin Jax and Josh Winder. I didn't account for those additional fractional salaries in the total payroll. They would increase it modestly. (At the league minimum, paying two extra players for one month equates to about $233K – a little less than Correa will earn for each game. I have the total payroll projected at $128M, which is roughly in line with last year's figure. It's worth noting that the payroll is fluid and can easily rise if Archer or Byron Buxton trigger portions of their ample incentives. Barring something unexpected, the "offseason" is complete and the Twins have assembled their forces for the 2022 campaign. We'll gain clarity on the final roster in the coming days, but it should resemble the above fairly closely. How are you feeling about the state of affairs as we await the impending start of the season? View full article

Twins fans have grown spoiled at the DH position. Over the past three years, Nelson Cruz graced us with his excellence, setting an unreachable standard. The team won't be able to match his production, but if there's a silver lining to his absence, it's that the lack of a dedicated full-time starter at DH creates a lot of flexibility – and opportunity. Projected Starter: Gary Sánchez Likely Backup: Miguel Sanó Depth: Luis Arraez, Brent Rooker Prospects: Aaron Sabato, Christian Encarnacion-Strand THE GOOD A few weeks ago, I figured the team's plan was to have Mitch Garver split time between catcher and designated hitter, with Ryan Jeffers getting primary reps behind the plate and other players rotating through the DH spot when Garver caught or sat. That's the kind of flexibility you gain from losing a fixture in Nelson Cruz. The scenario I envisioned has since been flipped upside down by a flurry of disruptive moves, and as the sum result, Gary Sánchez will essentially be filling the same role I saw for Garver. He'll have the smaller end of a catching timeshare, with plenty of time at DH to maximize the impact of his powerful right-handed bat. Although Sánchez has been worse than Garver of late, his overall track record is much more impressive: Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2016, two-time All-Star, owner of an .804 career OPS and 138 home runs by age 29. We've got Sánchez pegged as the starter at DH because he seems lined up for the most time there early on, but things are fluid at this position by design. Rocco Baldelli can play match-ups and maximize his best bats by taking advantage of the open reins. Plenty of candidates will be vying for opportunities. Miguel Sanó should see a good amount of time at DH, since the Twins seem to (justifiably) much prefer Alex Kirilloff's defense at first base. Luis Arraez lacks a firm starting position, so DH is an easy way to get his bat into the lineup against righties. (I wouldn't be surprised to see him there on Opening Day, even against a lefty.) Those three alone should be able to account for a bulk of the ABs in April. From there, the Twins can keep an open mind. Brent Rooker, the former first-round pick with an .874 OPS in the minors, could be a factor. Aaron Sabato, a more recent first-rounder coming off a roller-coaster pro debut, may not be far behind if his emergence at Cedar Rapids was legit. Christian Encarnacion-Strand is very intriguing to me – the 2021 fourth-rounder mashed to a 1.022 OPS in pitcher-friendly Ft. Myers last summer after starring for Oklahoma State. Like Sabato, he's 22. Plenty of potential bats in the pipeline. But the real dark horse here is José Miranda. I don't have him listed among the prospects or depth at this position because he's got enough glove to not be considered a long-term DH candidate, but Miranda's bat may force the issue. If he's raking in St. Paul while the various timeshare partners aren't inspiring for the Twins, the reigning Minor League Player of the Year is a mere shuttle away. A nice little ace in the hole. THE BAD Most of Minnesota's future DH impact is entirely theoretical, representing a stark change from the very reliable and material impact of Cruz. Sánchez is a nice piece there if he's mashing like he did early in his career. But between 2020 and '21 he slashed .187/.291/.406. Yeesh. Arraez, for as much as we all love him, was not a great offensive player last year. His punchless .294 average and .357 OBP yielded a 105 OPS+, meaning he was 5% better than average. You need more from a designated hitter. With Garver gone, Sanó is probably the most dependable impact bat the Twins can use at DH. For all the grief he gets, he was second on the team in home runs and RBIs last year, and he's only posted a below-average OPS once in seven seasons. I think I lost everyone when I used "Sanó" and "dependable" in the same sentence so I'll just move onto the next paragraph. It would be awesome to see Rooker grab the job and take hold of it. This is his moment. He's 27 and the raw power is special. His defensive shortcomings suggest that any major-league future will be at DH. Unfortunately, the Twins basically gave him everyday playing time after trading Cruz last year and Rooker did little to impress, slashing .219/.317/.425 with a 57-to-14 K/BB rate in 183 plate appearances. He's got an uphill battle for anything resembling regular tread. He might not even make it to Opening Day on the 40-man roster. Miranda, as amazing as he looked in the high minors last year, remains a theoretical big-league asset in his own right. Sabato and Encarnacion-Strand even more so. THE BOTTOM LINE The Twins face an uncertain future at designated hitter after parting ways with one of the best to ever do it. Expect to see plenty of Sánchez, Sanó and Arraez early on, with an open-ended roadmap after that. Catch Up on the Rest of Our 2022 Previews: Position Analysis: Catcher Position Analysis: First Base Position Analysis: Second Base Position Analysis: Third Base Position Analysis: Shortstop Position Analysis: Left Field Position Analysis: Center Field Position Analysis: Right Field View full article

For five straight seasons, Max Kepler has been Minnesota's starting right fielder on Opening Day. It's the longest-running streak of stability at any position on the team. He's about to stretch it to six, but there's a growing sense Kepler's days with the Twins are numbered. What's next in right? Projected Starter: Max Kepler Likely Backup: Alex Kirilloff Depth: Trevor Larnach, Jake Cave Prospects: Matt Wallner, Kala'i Rosario THE GOOD It's the same story as usual with Max Kepler in right field: stellar defense and so-so offense. It's easy to focus on the latter, especially in the wake of a truly lackluster season at the plate, but the value of Kepler's glove should not be ignored. Statcast had him in the 95th percentile for Outs Above Average last year, ranking second among right fielders (behind only Manuel Margot) with eight. FanGraphs had him sixth at the position in Defensive Runs Saved, with nine. No matter the source or metric, Kepler is a top-tier defensive player in right, bringing a center fielder's range to the position along with a solid arm and good instincts. When both he and Buxton are in the outfield, it's extremely difficult for opposing hitters to land a fly ball anywhere in their expansive territory, which will certainly be appreciated by young fly-ball pitchers like Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober. At the plate, Kepler is not great – especially given the offense-oriented position he plays – but far from horrible. His 2021 season was frustrating because it harkened back to his unfulfilling pre-2019 norm, but not because it was abjectly terrible. Kepler's baseline is "slightly below average hitter" (he's posted an OPS+ between 95 and 98 in four of five full seasons), but that's also been his floor. Even at his worst, he'll contribute enough home runs and walks to be reasonably productive. At his best, Kepler is a legitimate star. He hit 36 home runs in 2019 while holding his own against left-hander pitchers. With a 4.5 fWAR he was our pick for team MVP. It'd be easier to gravitate toward the possibility of that upside returning if we'd ever seen it outside of one brilliant, juiced-ball-aided season. Alas, he's still only 29. THE BAD In his first four MLB seasons, Kepler's home run totals jumped from 17 to 19 to 20 to 36. It appeared he had turned a corner, especially when he opened up the very next one with homers in first two at-bats against Lucas Giolito. And yet, since that first game of 2020, Kepler has managed only 26 home runs with a .410 slugging percentage in 169 games. Among 29 right fielders with 600+ PA over this span, Kepler ranks 25th in wOBA and wRC+. He's a poor hitter at a position with a high offensive bar, and unfortunately Rocco Baldelli has magnified the negative impact by routinely having Kepler hit at key spots in the lineup, as well as by starting him against lefties. Over the past two seasons, the outfielder has slashed .148/.236/.235 against southpaws. He needs to be platooned. Unfortunately, the Twins don't have a natural fit to platoon with Kepler in right. Brent Rooker could theoretically fill that role, but Baldelli doesn't like using Rooker in the outfield and seems to prefer him in left when he does. Also, Rooker has hardly shown to be a lefty masher, with a .222/.325/.375 line in 83 plate appearances. Kyle Garlick was supposed to fill a role like this for the Twins last year, and it's very possible he could resurface quickly, although he's not currently on the 40-man roster. Otherwise, as you look through the right field depth, both short-term and long-term, you find a whole lot of lefty bats: Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Jake Cave, Mark Contreras, Matt Wallner, Willie Joe Garry. THE BOTTOM LINE The shortage of viable platoon-mates means the Twins are probably staying committed to Kepler as an everyday starter for the time being. As long as he keeps providing premium defense in right field, the team can live with his sub-par offensive production at the position. He's under contract for $6.5 million this year, and $8.5 million in 2023, with a $10 million team option for the following year. I'd be very surprised if he plays through the end of his contract in Minnesota. Catch Up on the Rest of Our 2022 Previews: Position Analysis: Catcher Position Analysis: First Base Position Analysis: Second Base Position Analysis: Third Base Position Analysis: Shortstop Position Analysis: Left Field Position Analysis: Center Field View full article