Nick Nelson

On both the offensive and pitching sides, the Twins were either very good or very bad over the past seven days. There wasn't much in between. The end result was another .500 week that saw Cleveland briefly overtake first place while putting the longtime division leaders on notice. On Sunday night, however, that all took a backseat to some explosive news. Last Week's Game Results: Game 69 | CLE 6, MIN 5: Pagán Slips Up, Twins Blow Late Lead Game 70 | CLE 11, MIN 10: Bullpen Melts Down Again in Crusher Game 71 | MIN 1, CLE 0: Smeltzer and Gordon Stave Off Sweep Game 72 | COL 1, MIN 0: Lineup No Match for Márquez Game 73 | MIN 6, COL 0: Twins Get Payback in Shutout Win Game 74 | MIN 6, COL 3: Buxton Flirts with Cycle, Scores 3 Times Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 6/20 through Sun, 6/26 *** Record Last Week: 3-3 (Overall: 41-33) Run Differential Last Week: +7 (Overall: +32) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (2.0 GA) NEWS & NOTES The week ended with a piece of bombshell news, when we learned that Wes Johnson, Twins pitching coach since the 2019 season, will be leaving the team abruptly next week to join Louisiana State University in the same role. Minnesota's assistant pitching coach Pete Maki will step up to take over Johnson's vacant spot. This is a legitimately stunning turn of events, and one we'll surely learn a lot more about in the coming days. For now, I recommend reading John Bonnes' story above to get the details as we know them. Here we'll get aim to catch up on everything else. Just as it ended, the past week could've hardly started in a more deflating way. The Cleveland Guardians arrived in town for a much-anticipated battle atop the division, and the action at Target Field was as advertised – three one-run games full of fireworks, drama, and big swings. Unfortunately, the Twins bore the brunt of those swings in the first two games, with the bullpen twice blowing late leads as Cleveland stormed into sole possession of first place. Adding to the bad vibes was the revelation that Byron Buxton, who sat out the second game of this key series, had in fact been totally unavailable due to overwhelming soreness in his right knee. He remained sidelined for Thursday and Friday, but the Twins kept him active, insisting that consultations with multiple specialists led them to believe they're doing the right thing. It's hard to disagree after Buxton returned with a bang on Saturday and Sunday, legging out two triples among his four hits. He scored three times in a three-run victory to end the week. The turnaround in Buxton's situation – from grimly depressing to relatively encouraging – personified the course of Minnesota's week as a whole. After the crushing setbacks in those first two Cleveland games, the Twins won three of the next four and by the end of Sunday, they were back atop the division by two games. Before we dive into the good and bad more deeply, let's cover a few roster developments that took place over the past week, starting with a potentially significant one: Since hitting his last home run on June 10th, Trevor Larnach had gone 5-for-35 with zero extra-base hits over the next two weeks, with his potent hitting prowess going completely amiss. On Saturday, we got a clue as to why. Larnach was placed on the injured list with a core injury that had evidently been bothering him for some time. Doesn't sound like it'll be a short absence. He was replaced on the roster by Mark Contreras, who got a start and made a really nice defensive play, although he's still looking for his first major-league hit. On Sunday, Joe Smith landed on the IL with Jovani Moran swapping into the bullpen as his replacement. Given that Smith went through a bit of an acrobatic act in his last appearance, loading the bases with no outs in a one-run game before managing to escape unscathed, it seems fitting his injury was announced as upper trapezius tightness. Josh Winder's rehab assignment came to an end and he was optioned to Triple-A, though he's expected to come up and start a game in Tuesday's upcoming doubleheader. His return will be more than welcomed by this pitching staff. HIGHLIGHTS Alex Kirilloff's return has certainly been welcomed by the Twins offense. As hoped, the sweet-swinging lefty has looked like a totally different player this time around, after working to get straightened out in the minors. He didn't deliver a ton of hits last week, but made them count, driving in seven runs on five singles and two doubles. This lineup just has a different vibe with his bat in it. The continued emergence of Carlos Correa also serves to reinforce the legitimacy of the Twins offense. He had another excellent week, notching hits in every game on the way to a 9-for-25 week that included a double and a pair of homers. Correa has raised his OPS by nearly 100 points over the past month, shaking off a so-so start to deliver on the offensive promise that attracted the Twins to him. Oddly, his defensive numbers are way down, but Correa has clearly been a major asset and he's also back to playing everyday after easing back into action following his time on the COVID list. Ryan Jeffers had an excellent week as he revives his bat from the depths of a brutal slump. In four starts behind the plate, he went 5-for-12 with three doubles. Perhaps most impressively, he drew three walks against only three strikeouts, reversing a trend of nonexistent discipline that played a major role in his lack of production in May and the first half of June. We've been here before, and typically Jeffers' brief hot streaks been followed by extended droughts to more than offset them. If he can buck that pattern and keep making noise at the plate with any kind of consistency, it'll be a huge difference-maker for this offense. In the rotation, Devin Smeltzer and Chris Archer have been big difference-makers – unexpected and much-needed ones at that. Smeltzer played the role of stopper in Wednesday's finale against Cleveland, shutting down a lineup that had its way with Twins pitching for two days. A bounce-back showing from the bullpen, along with a solo homer from Nick Gordon, supported Smeltzer's six shutout innings en route to his fourth win of the season. Meanwhile, Archer's reclamation tour continued on Saturday with five innings of one-hit, shutout ball against Colorado. He struck out five and walked one in the tidy outing, lowering his ERA to 3.14. Through 14 starts, Archer has yet to pitch into the sixth inning, but he's been about as good as one could ask for with that caveat. In five June starts, he's posted a 1.57 ERA while holding opponents to a .169 batting average. This at a time where the rotation has largely been without its best two starters. Now, to be clear, the underlying metrics for Archer remain very ugly. The gap between his shiny ERA this month and his mediocre 4.03 FIP illustrate the degree to which he's outperforming expected outcomes. But ... you've got to think the approach being used with him is playing a big part. Statcast numbers aside, the 33-year-old is more than getting the job done, and most importantly, he's healthy after pitching fewer than 20 innings the past two years. "I'm super grateful how Rocco is handling this whole situation," Archer told reporters. "I couldn't be happier with how everything is going." It's noteworthy that the Twins and Archer have a mutual option at $10 million for next season. These are rarely exercised, but in this case? Sure feels possible if things continue as they've gone. But now Archer will have to try and keep it rolling through a sudden change in pitching coach. LOWLIGHTS Nearly one month ago, on May 30th, I wrote that the Twins bullpen was teetering on the brink of disaster, citing the ominous contrast of a Win Probability Added ranking fourth-best in baseball and a Wins Above Replacement ranking second-worst. Since then, Minnesota's bullpen ranks 20th in WPA, with a negative overall impact. The chickens have come to roost. They were flying around everywhere on Tuesday and Wednesday night, with a pair of very winnable games slipping away in highly frustrating fashion. As painfully easy as it was to see this coming, it's all the more painful to recognize a shortage of clear solutions. Want to shout for dismissal of the offending parties? Simple enough. Confidently identifying better options. Much trickier. Emilio Pagán tops that list of offending parties. He came on in the eighth inning of Tuesday's game against Cleveland, just after Luis Arráez electrified the building with a go-ahead three-run homer. Pagán proceeded to put a runner on and then serve an absolute meatball to Franmil Reyes, who promptly erased a two-run deficit. The following day, Pagán seemingly was on track to rebound, striking out the side in a clean eighth. Rocco Baldelli tried to get another inning out of him, and that didn't go well. Pagán opened the following frame by giving up three straight hits, opening the floodgates on a four-run ninth that turned a three-run lead into a one-run loss. Pagán's fastball has actually been pretty effective, holding opponents to a .190 average, and his splitter has been downright excellent, with a 39.4% whiff rate. But for whatever reason he's turned to the cutter more often (29.3%) than the splitter (22.3%), and that cutter has been horrendous. Opponents are slugging .724 against it, with three homers including the above moonshot by Reyes. Also contributing to the bullpen's woes was Jharel Cotton, who gave up three runs as part of the late-game collapse on Wednesday, coughing up a pair of homers. Tyler Duffey pitched twice in relatively low-leverage situations (down a run on Friday, up three on Sunday) and while he didn't give up any runs he didn't look good, allowing two walks and three hits in three innings. He was bailed out by three double plays. As good as Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax have been – and they were both awesome last week, even if Jax was tagged with both losses against Cleveland – the Twins bullpen cannot sustain with them forced to shoulder so much of the load. You could tell Baldelli was making efforts to protect Jax a bit on Wednesday – he'd thrown 27 pitches the previous night, and 16 two days earlier – by sending Pagán out for another inning. Pagán's failure meant Jax ended up having to pitch again anyway, and the Twins lost anyway. Duran, who pitched 16 total innings last year due to elbow issues, was called upon three times last week, and asked to get more than three outs in two of those. These are important young arms. They need to be protected. Veterans like Pagán and Duffey aren't getting it done and the possible negative impacts go beyond tallies in the loss column. Of course, it would also help if any of the starting pitchers were providing length. Archer's aforementioned workload limitations, much like Buxton's frequent days off, are acceptable as the byproduct of a plan that is delivering its intended results. It's tougher to accept Sonny Gray failing to get an out in the fifth inning on Tuesday, or Joe Ryan losing the groove from his stellar start to the season. Ryan just hasn't looked the same since coming back from a lengthy stint on the COVID list, with 10 earned runs allowed in 15 ⅔ innings over three starts. The poised craftsman who efficiently carved up opposing lineups through mid-May hasn't been present of late as Ryan has labored and missed his spots. On Sunday he needed 102 pitches to get through five innings against Colorado, striking out just one. This rotation needs more from its top two arms. It probably also needs at least one other high-end arm added to that group if championship contention is a true aspiration. TRENDING STORYLINE As we've established, the Twins could really use some impact help in the bullpen. While they're short on potential answers, there are a couple of promising – albeit volatile – possibilities in the pipeline. First, you've got Jorge Alcalá, who is set to restart his rehab assignment next week after pausing due to elbow stiffness. If he can eventually come back throwing like he was in the final two months last year, when he posted a 0.96 ERA and 24-to-3 K/BB ratio over 18 ⅔ innings while throwing pure fire, Alcalá could be a transformative force. But the precarious situation with his arm makes it difficult to get hopes up. Meanwhile, pitching prospect Matt Canterino – himself dealing with elbow issues – is ready to start working back toward game action after a positive visit with a specialist, according to Darren Wolfson. For the most part, there aren't many true game-changing arms within range of the majors occupying the Twins system, unless you're especially optimistic about someone like Yennier Cano or Moran. Alcalá and Canterino are a different story. They have what it takes to dominate in the late innings. Although neither is close to entering the big-league bullpen fold at this moment, it's definitely a relief to hear both are again taking steps in the right direction after some scary hiccups. LOOKING AHEAD If the Twins are feeling sour about the way things went down at Target Field against the Guardians last week, they'll have a fast chance to settle the score as they travel of Cleveland for a five-game series against their (present) closest challenger in the division. These jam-packed stretches of the schedule, made necessary by the delayed start to the season, are challenging to endure – especially when you're traveling. The last time Minnesota experienced such a gauntlet, they dropped four of five in Detroit against the Tigers. Needless to say, a similar result in Cleveland would hurt. The follow-up series back home against Baltimore would ordinarily seem like a nice respite, but the Orioles have actually been playing pretty good ball of late. Eight games and a pitching coach transition (set to take place after the Cleveland series) lie ahead in the next seven days. Buckle up. MONDAY, 6/27: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Sonny Gray v. RHP Triston McKenzie TUESDAY, 6/28 (G1): TWINS @ GUARDIANS – LHP Devin Smeltzer v. RHP Zach Plesac TUESDAY, 6/28 (G2): TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Josh Winder v. TBD WEDNESDAY, 6/29: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Dylan Bundy v. RHP Cal Quantrill THURSDAY, 6/30: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Chris Archer v. RHP Shane Bieber FRIDAY, 7/1: ORIOLES @ TWINS – RHP Spenser Watkins v. RHP Joe Ryan SATURDAY, 7/2: ORIOLES @ TWINS – RHP Jordan Lyles v. RHP Sonny Gray SUNDAY, 7/3: ORIOLES @ TWINS – RHP Tyler Wells v. LHP Devin Smeltzer View full article

Every step of the way, this Minnesota Twins front office has believed in Ryan Jeffers more than basically anyone outside of it. At times, their faith has been rewarded. But with Jeffers sinking into quicksand during his third major-league season, it's valid to question whether their extreme confidence is misplaced, and what that would mean for the franchise. Jeffers was widely considered a reach when the Twins selected him 59th overall in 2018 – the second draft overseen by Derek Falvey and Thad Levine. Per Puckett's Pond, Baseball America's big board had Jeffers ranked 295th among draft prospects and MLB.com's 200-player list didn't have him ranked. Although the North Carolina native had posted monster numbers during his collegiate career at UNC, he had a rep as a bat-first catcher without the receiving chops to stick behind the plate, negating his defensive premium. The Twins saw it differently. They overdrafted Jeffers to ensure he wouldn't escape their grasp. They moved him aggressively through the minors, even as he failed to post truly extraordinary numbers. In the COVID season, Minnesota called Jeffers up from the alternate site, despite his having played only 24 total games above Double-A to that point. To his credit, Jeffers seized the opportunity and made a great impression. While filling in the very big shoes of an injured Mitch Garver, the 23-year-old delivered a positive impact on both sides, posting a 119 OPS+ while flashing his vaunted framing skills on the big stage. Twins Daily named him Twins rookie of the year. The 2021 season was much more of a struggle for Jeffers. Pitchers began to exploit his lack of discipline at the plate. He batted .199 with a .270 OBP, and five times as many strikeouts as walks. Base runners increasingly exploited his inability to control the run game, stealing 46 bases on 59 attempts. Despite his sluggish sophomore campaign, the front office doubled down on Jeffers during the offseason, trading away two years of Mitch Garver and replacing him with Gary Sánchez in a walk year. The message was clear: Jeffers is our future behind the plate. Sure enough, the Twins ran Jeffers hard early on. He started every game in the opening series, catching the first two and playing DH in the third. In fact, Jeffers got three starts at designated hitter in the team's first dozen games, even with Minnesota carrying only two catchers. It's clear they expected Jeffers to hit. He hasn't. Jeffers opened the season in a brutal 4-for-27 skid, with zero extra-base hits. He then had a brief surge where he launched three home runs and four doubles in an eight-game span. Since then: 11-for-78 (.151) with one double, one home run, and 25 strikeouts in 26 games. Overall, Jeffers is slashing .174/.264/.303 – only six qualified big-leaguers have a worse OPS. He's consistently been an automatic out, cratering rallies and sapping an otherwise productive lineup. And what's more: Jeffers isn't exactly tearing it up on the defensive side to offset his hitting woes. He still rates well as a pitch framer, and it's clear he is stealing pitchers an extra strike here and there. (Although I'll note: notorious butcher backstop Gary Sánchez is also checking in above-average this year.) But Jeffers is being exposed for his throwing inadequacies like never before. For the season, Jeffers has successfully stopped only three of 28 aspiring base stealers. On Sunday, the Rays went borderline Matthew LeCroy on the bit, running at will as the Twins catcher helplessly cast tardy throws to second and third. Granted, Jeffers has often not gotten help from pitchers when it comes to stopping runners – Cole Sands on Sunday being a prime example – but it's a pretty clear weakness in his game. And again: it's not an unexpected one. His deficiencies in quickness and footwork have been noted in scouting reports over the years. They're part of why draft analysts doubted his future behind the plate. For Twins fans, it's now impossible not to doubt Jeffers' future behind the plate for the Twins. Framing skills aside, he's a 25-year-old with more than 500 plate appearances in the big leagues and a .655 OPS to show for it. The requisite signs of improvement aren't there. Jeffers looks lost and it's not inconceivable he could find himself ticketed for a Triple-A reset, should this trend persist. If Jeffers can't change course and resuscitate his wayward game, what does that mean for the future of the team at catcher? Garver is gone, as is Ben Rortvedt. The system is sparse on catching talent, which was noted in our preseason prospect rankings even before that depth was wiped out. This front office might be confident to the point some would describe as hubris, but they're not overly sentimental. At some point, they'll come to terms with the reality of Jeffers if it becomes undeniable. What happens then? In short, the Twins will either need to find a free agent (the upcoming market is ... not great) or a trade partner. OR ... they'll need to convince Gary Sánchez to stick around. It's not the most exciting proposition given his track record, and even in his resurgent rebound this year he's been pretty average. Still probably good enough to have some leverage in a weak catching market this offseason. So far, the team's unwavering faith in Jeffers has not paid off. But there's still time for him to prove them right. They could sure use it. View full article

It was a week of thrilling highs and gut-wrenching lows for the Minnesota Twins, who returned to Target Field against some very tough competition. They scored, and gave up, a whole bunch of runs, ultimately making a big statement about their viability as contenders in the American League. Let's sort it out. Last Week's Game Results: Game 56 | NYY 10, MIN 4: Duffey Clobbered, Yankees Roll Game 57 | MIN 8, NYY 1: Twins Offense Blows Up in Rout Game 58 | NYY 10, MIN 7: Pitchers Waste 5-Homer Night Game 59 | MIN 9, TB 4: Buxton and Twins Ambush Rays Game 60 | MIN 6, TB 5: Arraez Grand Slam Keys Victory Game 61 | TB 6, MIN 0: Lineups Cools Off, Can't Seal Sweep Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 6/6 through Sun, 6/12 *** Record Last Week: 3-3 (Overall: 35-27) Run Differential Last Week: -2 (Overall: +25) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (3.0 GA) NEWS & NOTES Let's get the unbelievably bad news out of the way first. A second MRI on Royce Lewis' knee, with his swelling reduced, revealed a partially torn ACL. This means he'll once again need to undergo reconstructive surgery on the same ligament they just repaired last year. He's expected to be sidelined for another 12 months. It's an excruciatingly crushing blow for one of the most likable players in the organization and one of the most talented prospects in the game. Somehow Lewis managed to maintain an optimistic and unflappable front in the face of this unthinkable setback to his career. Not only does the Lewis news eliminate a key potential difference-maker from the rest of this season's picture, but it also throws a big wrench into the team's future plans. With Carlos Correa expected to opt-out after this year, Lewis was lined up to take over as shortstop. Now, he could be out into June of 2022 and at that point he'll be coming back from two straight major knee surgeries. We'll cross that bride when we get there, I guess. In happier news, the Twins did get Correa back from COVID IL. He had an excellent week, launching two homers and a double among eight hits in four games. It sounds like he's still dealing with some fatigue, but showing zero signs. Correa's successful return meant Jermaine Palacios headed back to Triple-A after making a great impression with his glove. Chi Chi Gonzalez was added to the 40-man roster with Lewis going on the 60-day IL. He started Saturday and was okay. At week's end Gonzalez was DFA'ed to make room for reliever call-up Tyler Thornburg, who made a solid debut on Sunday. Cole Sands was recalled for starts against both New York and Tampa, struggling against both. He's likely to be optioned on Monday. Juan Minaya was swapped off the 40-man roster in favor of Jharel Cotton, who's earned a bigger shot. Kyle Garlick landed on the IL with a hamstring injury, though it sounds like he won't be out long. HIGHLIGHTS The Twins offense proved last week beyond a shadow of a doubt that it belongs in the conversation as one of the best in baseball. Day in and day out, they showed up and flat-out raked, despite facing some genuinely excellent pitching all week long. Going against three straight All Star-caliber starters for the Yankees, and then taking on a Rays staff full of quality arms, the bats never went quiet – at least until the final game of the homestand. All told, even with Sunday's shutout, the Twins piled up 34 runs on 61 hits and 12 homers in six games, including back-to-back-to-back bombs off Gerrit Cole and a walloping of the league's ERA leader (at the time), Nestor Cortes. The Twins currently find themselves third in the AL in runs scored and second in OPS. No one can say their bats are getting fat off weak competition. While Correa's physical return made a big impact, it was Byron Buxton's spiritual return that led the way in this offensive barrage. Buck simply hadn't been himself for the better part of a month, leading some schmo to suggest that an IL stint could be in order to help him heal up. But soon after, he flipped the switch and turned right back into the guy who terrorized pitchers in April. Buxton showed signs of awakening last weekend in Toronto, when he homered and doubled in Saturday's win. Then, he went 1-for-7 with five strikeouts in his next two games and you wondered if he was sinking right back into the funk. No sir. Buxton proceeded to collect six hits in 13 at-bats over the next three games, five of them home runs. Buxton is now hilariously on pace to hit roughly 45 home runs in 115 games this season. Luis Arraez continues to be one of the most consistent and effective offensive forces in baseball, and he's even begun sprinkling in some power. His long ball against Cole opened the triple-whammy on Thursday, and Arraez delivered a game-breaking grand slam against Tampa on Saturday. After wrapping an 8-for-22 week, Arraez is leading the world in batting average and on-base percentage – neither by a slim margin. Although his lack of defensive impact takes a major toll on his overall value from an analytical standpoint, I do think that if he keeps this up (especially the bursts of power), the narrative around Arraez could propel him into the MVP conversation, and it wouldn't be totally unwarranted. Other big performances in a statement week for the Twins offense: Jorge Polanco opened up with a four-hit performance against New York and finished 9-for-21 with a homer and pair of doubles. After an extended cold spell that dragged his OPS down into the mid-600s, Polanco seems to be back in the groove. José Miranda continues to come into his own at the plate. (In the field and bases, not so much.) He had three hits and three RBIs in Wednesday's lopsided win over the Yankees, and added another double as the #3 hitter on Saturday. (Though he got thrown out trying to stretch it to three. Like I said.) Trevor Larnach managed only four hits in 19 at-bats, but he did absolutely CLOBBER a home run off Cole: LOWLIGHTS As good as the hitting was for the Twins last week, the pitching was almost equally bad. That's gonna happen to some extent when you're throwing the likes of Sands and Gonzalez at very good offenses, but it wasn't just the temporary plugs contributing to these woes. Tyler Duffey bombed again on Tuesday night, turning a close deficit into a blowout by surrendering a back-breaking home run to Anthony Rizzo. He gave up another homer and double in garbage time on Sunday. Dylan Bundy – whose fastball velocity has now incredibly slipped below that of soft-tossing lefty Devin Smeltzer – coughed up four runs in four innings on Thursday, wasting a big early cushion before the bullpen combined to allow six runs in a painful loss that slipped away. This included an uncharacteristic implosion from Jhoan Duran, who was charged with two runs on four hits while recording only one out. Jovani Moran's control issues reared their head in the same outing, as he issued three walks in 1 ⅔ innings and threw just half of his 36 pitches for strikes. Joe Smith continued hurdling back to Earth with three runs allowed on four hits in his two innings. He's allowed at least one run in five of his past eight appearances after allowing zero in his first 16. Minaya punched his ticket off the 40-man roster with a laborious and ugly outing against New York. While both the starters and relievers have grown rather unreliable, it's easy to see a path to improvement in the rotation with its best two starters, Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan, both slated to return in the coming week. The bullpen, however, is a much more worrisome animal. Impact reinforcements are not close and the Twins have already burned through a whole bunch of their internal options. Jorge Alcalá had his rehab stint put on pause last week due to renewed elbow stiffness. Cody Stashak is out of the year due to labrum surgery. Matt Canterino – the highest-upside arm in the system currently – went on IL with a forearm issue that's been dubbed "minor." (We'll see. Canterino was limited to 23 innings last year by elbow problems.) The trade deadline is still a month and a half away, but you wonder if the front office may be compelled to spring into action early on this increasingly urgent need. TRENDING STORYLINE The Twins aren't exactly in dire need of offensive help at the moment, but it's still getting harder and harder to justify leaving Alex Kirilloff and his scorching hot bat in the minors. The 24-year-old has done everything he can at St. Paul to prove that his wrist is no longer impeding him. Saturday was just the latest example – Kirilloff launched a pair of home runs to boost his slash line at Triple-A to .350/.453/.607, including .405/.488/1.000 in the month of June. Power was the last remaining piece that we've been waiting on for Kirilloff, who's consistently displayed a strong plate approach ever since being sent down. His 1.000 slugging percentage this month is a pretty good indicator that we can check off that final box. At a glance it might seem tricky to find a fit for Kirilloff in a mostly-healthy Twins lineup, but in reality it won't be that hard. As great as Arraez has been offensively, his defense at first leaves much to be desired and this was evident on a few occasions last week. Plugging in Kirilloff at first and moving Arraez to DH as a regular setup against righties will improve the Twins defense – a recurring sore spot amid the pitching struggles last year – and make their lineup even more imposing. The question is how to make room for Kirilloff on the active roster. No one in the current picture looks like a clear candidate to go, unless the Twins decide to cut down to 13 pitchers (something they'll be forced to do in a week anyway). Keep in mind the team will also need to find a spot for Garlick soon. Nick Gordon came out of Saturday's game with a hamstring injury, and placing him on the IL might have helped alleviate the logjam, but he entered Sunday's game as a sub, negating that possibility. LOOKING AHEAD The schedule relents in the week to come, as the Twins hit the road to take on a pair of fourth-place teams. With Gray and Ryan expected to return in the "TBD" spots, Minnesota is poised for successful stretch if the bats can stay hot. Of note: The Twins are lined up to face three straight left-handers starting on Wednesday. Garlick is eligible to come off the injured list on Tuesday. MONDAY, 6/13: TWINS @ MARINERS – RHP Chris Archer v. RHP Chris Flexen TUESDAY, 6/14: TWINS @ MARINERS – TBD v. RHP Logan Gilbert WEDNESDAY, 6/15: TWINS @ MARINERS – TBD v. LHP Marco Gonzales FRIDAY, 6/17: TWINS @ DIAMONDBACKS – RHP Dylan Bundy v. LHP Madison Bumgarner SATURDAY, 6/18: TWINS @ DIAMONDBACKS – LHP Devin Smeltzer v. LHP Kyle Nelson SUNDAY, 6/19: TWINS @ DIAMONDBACKS – RHP Chris Archer v. RHP Merrill Kelly View full article

Yeah. That's definitely something I speculated. Honest question: did you actually read this article?

Buxton ranks 170 out of 178 MLB players in wOBA over the past month, after ranking 8th out of all MLB hitters in the first month, and he's been openly playing through physical issues, but we're gonna act like this is all some overreaction to a standard baseball slump, huh? Okay. It's clearly not a "minor injury" if it's still affecting him now and the team implies it'll take an entire offseason to fully heal. What a remark.

He's literally had one good offensive game in a month and I'm the one cherrypicking. Come on now.

I think you are overestimating the certainty of medical science. And also we're talking about degrees here. not absolutes Maybe it won't "resolve itself" but will it get better? How could it not?

What is this idea of him "coming around at the plate" based on? One good game on Friday night? Outside of that he's got five singles and one double in 30 at-bats since snapping the 0-fer streak, and zero multi-hit games in the past month.

How would we know until giving it a try? Playing regularly doesn't seem to be helping. It stands to reason that two weeks off of his legs, getting steady treatment, will be helpful to some extent. Only one way to find out how much.

The Twins and Byron Buxton had a strategy: They would keep the banged-up star away from yet another trip to the injured list by feeding him a steady regimen of rest. One can argue the merits of this plan up until now. But as a roster crunch ensues and his performance continues to suffer, this feels like the right time to give Buck a break. Last week, the Twins played games on all seven days and Buxton was out of the starting lineup for three of them. This included two days off in a three-day span (Monday and Wednesday), and Sunday ahead of an off day. Granted, there are mitigating circumstances to account for – he played both ends of a doubleheader on Tuesday, and the team was wrapping an exhausting stretch on Sunday – but they're clearly sticking to their plan of plentiful respites. The plan is working, to an extent: Buxton has avoided the injured list through two months. That's a big victory in and of itself. But he's also doing little to contribute right now, and hamstringing the roster by so frequently being a healthy(ish) scratch. Back in mid-May, when many were debating over the team's handling of Buxton and his frequency of rest days, I tweeted my point-of-view on the matter: If anything, the Twins weren't being cautious enough. When your most important player is wincing through knee and hip ailments, the safe bet is simply to place him on the shelf for a while to heal. Since the date of that tweet (May 16th), Buxton has slashed .155/.254/.241 with one home run and three RBIs. After producing a staggering 1.5 Wins Above Replacement in his first month's worth of games, his WAR over the past month sits at 0.0 – a dead-on replacement level player. Those words feel extremely weird to even type out in connection with Buxton. Slumps happen in baseball. That's the nature of the game. When you go on a tear like Buxton did to open the season, a corresponding downswing is to be expected. Moreover, his underlying metrics haven't taken a worrisome nosedive or anything. I'm not suggesting Buxton is unplayable right now or that there's a dire need to keep him out of the lineup. At the same time, it's impossible not to believe his physical state is negatively affecting his play. The sheer magnitude of his slump, along with the occasional grimace and gingerly step, make clear that he's hampered. When asked a couple weeks ago whether his knee injury was improving, Buxton offered a tepid "no comment." He also, unsurprisingly, expressed a desire to stay off the IL. Since then his numbers have improved a bit – highlighted by Friday night's game, which featured a double and a homer. But he still doesn't look right. He's still taking as much time off as ever. And the Twins are facing some tough roster decisions ahead. Max Kepler will be activated when the Twins return home to open a three-game series against the Yankees. It sounds like Carlos Correa will be activated soon after. Okay, easy enough to make room for those two guys – simply send down Mark Contreras and Jermaine Palacios, who were called up specifically to replace them. But what about making room for Alex Kirilloff? He has found his swing once again in Triple-A, where he's slashing a ridiculous .387/.477/.693 since being optioned in mid-May. Crucially, the power has resurfaced, with Kirilloff mashing four doubles and five home runs in his past eight games for the Saints to earn International League Player of the Week honors. There is simply no reason to leave him in the minors right now. But who gets ousted from the position-player ranks to enable such a move? Trevor Larnach, who was originally swapped in for Kirilloff, certainly isn't going anywhere – he's been one of the team's best players since getting called up. How about Gilberto Celestino? It would make sense logistically, but are you really gonna send down a kid who's batting .350 with an .816 OPS? Nick Gordon? He's been playing pretty regularly and pretty well, with a .265/.308/.490 slash line in his past 15 games, and sending him down would mean losing him on waivers since he's out of options. José Miranda? He would've been the obvious candidate a couple of weeks ago but he too has begun to find his stroke, with a .361/.378/.722 slash line dating back to May 20th. His right-handed power feels too important to lose at this moment. Now, maybe this takes care of itself for the time being, because Kyle Garlick suffered a hamstring pull on Saturday that could lead to him landing on the IL. But I do think that sort of distracts from the point, which is that it would make sense from multiple perspectives to shut Buxton down for a while, sort through the roster crunch, and then bring him back in a couple week. During that span, the crunch figures to work itself out. Maybe Celestino or Miranda start slumping, or Kirilloff's bat doesn't take in the big leagues. Most likely, someone else will get hurt. By the time Buxton comes back, he'll hopefully be healthier, requiring a bit less time off, and ready to get back to mashing. Buck won't like it, but he seems to be aligned with the Twins on this critical directive: doing whatever it takes to ensure he stays on the field throughout the second half and is able to be there for the team when it matters most. View full article

The beleaguered Minnesota Twins are coming back from an ugly and exhausting road trip that saw them hit plenty of bumps and barriers – some of their own creation. Where do things stand as they return home and try to get back to something resembling full strength? Last Week's Game Results: Game 48 | DET 7, MIN 5: Three Homers Not Enough Game 49 | MIN 8, DET 2: Smeltzer Shows Out Again Game 50 | DET 4, MIN 0: Listless Twins Limp to Defeat Game 51 | DET 5, MIN 0: Bats Have No Answers for Skubal Game 52 | DET 3, MIN 2: Pagan Surrenders Lead in 8th Inning Game 53 | MIN 9, TOR 3: Garlick, Miranda Power Explosive Night Game 54 | TOR 12, MIN 3: Berríos Blows Away Former Team Game 55 | MIN 8, TOR 6: Twins Win Rubber Match in Nail-biter Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 5/30 through Sun, 6/5 *** Record Last Week: 3-5 (Overall: 32-24) Run Differential Last Week: -7 (Overall: +27) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (4.5 GA) NEWS & NOTES The pandemic continues to make its ongoing presence felt in the major leagues. The Twins were hit hard by a wave of COVID-related absences over the past week, which left them shorthanded for an intense slate of games on the road. The week began with a crushing blow: Carlos Correa tested positive in the middle of Monday afternoon's game, almost exactly 24 hours after Royce Lewis crashed into the center field wall at Target Field. While the news on Lewis was relatively positive – a bone bruise that figures to cost him weeks rather than months or the entire season – he is still sidelined at exactly the time Minnesota could use him as everyday shortstop. Amazingly rotten timing. This rough series of events did create an opportunity for Jermaine Palacios, who's now up and starting everyday at shortstop. His glove is good enough to serve as a temporary plug even if there are no signs he'll hit at all. On Friday, when the Twins traveled to Canada for a weekend series against the Blue Jays, national health policies required that unvaccinated players stay in the United States. As it turns out, this meant Max Kepler, Caleb Thielbar, Emilio Pagán, and Trevor Megill were unable to join the team in Toronto. It was a disappointing development made all the more irksome by Kepler's importance to a struggling lineup, and the bullpen ranks already being thin to begin with. Meanwhile, Joe Ryan remained unavailable due to his COVID diagnosis. With Ryan remaining sidelined and Sonny Gray landing on IL due to a pectoral injury, Chi Chi Gonzalez came up to make a (poor) spot start on Friday. Gonzalez was replaced on the roster the next day by Gilberto Celestino, who is finally past his own coronavirus ordeal. He was back in the lineup on Sunday. It's hard to get a firm read on the Twins right now. They are missing so many players and dealing with so many ongoing things that prevent them operating at anything close to full strength. At the same time, they've been banged up to varying degrees all year and there's no reason to think it's gonna stop being an issue at any point. HIGHLIGHTS Many were clamoring for José Miranda to be optioned rather than Lewis when Correa returned from his IL stint in mid-May. It was an understandable sentiment, given how both were playing at the time. But the Twins stuck with Miranda, and he's taken full advantage while reminding us that a little patience is warranted with talented young rookies. Since Lewis was demoted on May 18th, Miranda has gone 13-for-36 with three home runs and four doubles. He launched a pair of bombs in the series-opening 9-3 victory at Toronto and has lifted his OPS into semi-respectable territory at .641 He's still swinging at absolutely everything, with a 22-to-3 K/BB ratio overall, and as long as that remains true it's going to be hard to sustain his production – or at the very least it'll make him very susceptible to woeful slumps like the one that opened his career. But at least we're seeing real signs of that special ability with the bat. Gio Urshela, another player who some called for casting aside in order to keep Lewis around, has also experienced an offensive awakening since around the time Royce was sent down. That continued last week as Urshela went 7-for-21 with a homer and three doubles. He suffered a scary-looking foot sprain on the base paths Friday night, but luckily it appears the third baseman dodged anything major, as he started again on Sunday Elsewhere, Kyle Garlick reaffirmed his immense value as a lefty-mashing weapon, crushing two home runs against Yusei Kikuchi on Friday night. Garlick has been a tremendous asset for the Twins thus far, so hopefully his (reportedly minor) hamstring tightness that surfaced on Friday won't amount to much. LOWLIGHTS The Detroit series was absolutely brutal on every level. For most of the five games, the shorthanded Twins could barely muster any kind of threat or visible urgency. The offense sleepwalked through inning after inning, tallying two total runs in the final three games while getting shut out twice. The pitchers were mostly sub-par despite facing one of the league's worst lineups. Triple-A starters Gonzalez and Cole Sands both looked very much out of their depth when called up out of necessity. Speaking of out of depth: The Twins have basically burned through their quality SP depth. It feels like Devin Smeltzer is kinda holding things together at this point, and that's not a great place to be even though he's been sensational. Getting healthy enough to push Dylan Bundy out of the rotation is a high priority, as it's grown very clear he doesn't have what it takes to pitch effectively in the majors anymore. I wrote here on Monday about how the overperforming bullpen was an alarming point of vulnerability for the Twins, and sure enough the unit sprung big leaks over the course of the week, including Monday's game in which Joe Smith coughed up a late lead. In Thursday's finale at Detroit, Pagán turned a 2-1 lead into a 3-2 deficit and was tagged with a loss. Tyler Duffey turned in yet another absolute dud on Sunday, coughing up three runs while recording two outs. I do think the ravaged, regressing rotation and undermanned bullpen are big problems for the Twins, but it's hard to hold either entirely culpable when the offense so frequently fails to provide any support. It was the usual story for the bats: overly dependent on home runs, prone to disappearances. On Saturday the Twins faced their old friend José Berríos, who'd been going through a stunningly bad year, and he suddenly found every bit of peak dominance. He finished with 13 strikeouts and 19 swinging strikes against the listless Twins hitters, blowing away his previous highs in 10 starts this year (seven and 11). Ryan Jeffers has become easily the biggest liability in the lineup. He went hitless in four starts last week, finishing 0-for-16 with nine strikeouts and one walk. With a consistent lack of contact and results, his slash line has plummeted to .176/.269/.294 and at some point – if this dire drought continues – you wonder if it'll warrant a get-right trip to the minors. José Godoy could hardly be worse and Jeffers needs to regain some confidence, or at least some idea of what he's doing. Thank goodness for the re-emergence of Gary Sánchez. Jorge Polanco seems unable to find any rhythm at the plate. He was a big culprit in the run-production difficulties at Detroit, going 3-for-20 with one run scored and zero RBIs while starting all five games in the heart of the order. His OPS has plummeted by almost 100 points in the past three weeks, and at this point he's barely outproducing Nick Gordon, whose OPS is only seven points lower. Polanco was stellar in the first half of May but has since looked more like the guy who struggled to engage his base and drive the ball back in 2020, with a .269 slugging percentage in his past 20 games. This slump has conspicuously coincided with reports of ankle soreness. Something to keep an eye on. TRENDING STORYLINE The Twins just need to get key players back. It sounds like Ryan, Correa, Gray, and Jorge Alcalá are all close to varying degrees, and they can all be huge difference-makers for their respective units. The team could really use all of them right away, given what's on deck in the coming week (see below), but most of those guys seem to be looking at late-week reactivations at the earliest. At least Kepler and the rest of the restricted list players will be back in action as the homestand gets underway on Tuesday. In Kepler's case, the extra rest couldn't have hurt, as he'd been dealing with a leg issue. LOOKING AHEAD The Twins are returning home after their bumpy road trip, but things are hardly about to get easier. Yes, the big bad Yankees are coming to town for a three-game series at Target Field, which is just what the Twins and their fans needed coming off the unpleasant and drama-filled past week. Ready or not, here they come, and I'm sorry to say this version of the Bronx Bombers is an especially imposing one, with the league's best record and Aaron Judge on an ungodly tear. After that the second-place Rays come into Target Field, which isn't much of a respite. Still trying to get healthy and reeling from an ugly road trip, the Twins are looking ahead to another challenging week. They'll be more than happy to take that day off on Monday – their first in nearly three weeks. TUESDAY, 6/7: YANKEES @ TWINS – LHP Nestor Cortes v. RHP Bailey Ober WEDNESDAY, 6/8: YANKEES @ TWINS – RHP Jameson Taillon v. RHP Chris Archer THURSDAY, 6/9: YANKEES @ TWINS – RHP Gerrit Cole v. TBD FRIDAY, 6/10: RAYS @ TWINS – RHP Drew Rasmussen v. RHP Dylan Bundy SATURDAY, 6/11: RAYS @ TWINS – LHP Ryan Yarbrough v. LHP Devin Smeltzer SUNDAY, 6/12: RAYS @ TWINS – LHP Jeffrey Springs v. RHP Bailey Ober View full article

Basically, yes. WPA is a pure measure of situational outcomes, with a lot of detail missing -- you get tons of credit for protecting a 1-run lead in the 9th, even if you faced the bottom of the lineup and they all hit rockets to the warning track. Wins Above Replacement is all about expected outcomes -- it's influenced by Ks, BBs, and HRs, and less by batted-ball variance. It is, from my view, far more predictive than WPA and usually more predictive than mainstream stats like ERA. Which is not to say it's perfect. I probably wouldn't have written this article if the gap between these two metrics were not so utterly dramatic.

... Yes? Underlying performance indicators tend to be predictive. That's my whole point. I'm not feeding "negativity wolves" I'm addressing a very real and palpable concern about this team's outlook.

In terms of impact on winning ballgames, the Minnesota Twins' bullpen has been one of the best in the league this year, playing a key role in propelling the team to first place by a healthy margin through 48 games. But a deeper look reveals alarming signs. Monday's game against the Tigers offered ominous signs of potential things to come. Joe Smith, who allowed zero runs in his first 16 appearances of the season, has now allowed four runs in his past four. He couldn't dance his way out of a leadoff triple in the seventh at Detroit, letting two runs in on three hits and taking the loss. The regression he's experiencing may be a harbinger for the relief corps as a whole. According to Win Probability Added, which quantifies the percent change in a team's chances of winning from one event to the next, Minnesota's bullpen entered play Monday as the fourth-best in baseball, adding more than two victories to the ledger through clutch performances in tight situations. With the Twins possessing a 9-5 record in one-run games, that sounds about right. However, according to Wins Above Replacement, which seeks to paint a more process-driven picture of value, Twins relievers have been the second-WORST in all of baseball – dead last in the American League. FanGraphs pegs this group as sub-replacement level on whole. That is the case despite breakout star Jhoan Duran pitching incredibly well at the back end. In fact, his status as a crux point in this Twins bullpen might be the scariest thing of all. Without him around, the unit would look dramatically worse and less imposing. In order to avoid turning too often to guys like Tyler Duffey and Emilio Pagán, who are hard to trust, the Twins will need to lean hard on Duran. But we're talking about a guy who threw 16 total innings the past two years, and who dealt with a serious elbow strain for almost all of 2021. There's a huge risk in overusing him. From a big-picture perspective, they should probably err toward underusing him. Reinforcements will be needed as we get into the heart of the summer. Yennier Canó unfortunately did not make a strong impression during his first turn with the big-league club. Danny Coulombe will be out for a while after aggravating his hip injury. Jorge Alcala's return is not imminent. Right now, there's a lot of pressure on the likes of Juan Minaya, Jovani Moran, and Trevor Megill to establish themselves as viable options in leverage, which is not a great place for the Twins to be. (This is where I must obligatorily point out that – as Chris Paddack embarks on the long road back from Tommy John surgery – Taylor Rogers has a 1.17 ERA for the Padres and leads the world in saves, although he did cough up a game to Pittsburgh the other night by allowing three runs.) Minnesota's bullpen has outperformed expectations and underlying metrics like no other in the game. As the season progresses, that balancing act becomes trickier and trickier. So far Rocco Baldelli has mostly been putting relievers in a position to succeed and relievers have mostly been getting it done. How much longer will that sustain? Unless a few guys other than Duran can step up, I fear Monday's slip-up was only the beginning. View full article

The Twins are in the middle of a lengthy run of games with no breaks. They've been taking some hits. They remain in first place by a healthy margin. Now, the going's about to get rough. Last Week's Game Results: Game 42 | MIN 5, DET 4: Urshela Walks It Off Again Game 43 | MIN 2, DET 0: Gray Dominates in Shutout Victory Game 44 | DET 4, MIN 2: Offense Goes Cold, No Sweep Game 45 | KC 3, MIN 2: Bullpen and Bats Fall Short Game 46 | MIN 10, KC 7: Polanco, Correa Provide Power Game 46 | KC 7, MIN 3: Archer Hits a Wall Against Royals Game 47 | MIN 7, KC 3: Twins Split Behind Gray's Win Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 5/23 through Sun, 5/29 *** Record Last Week: 4-3 (Overall: 29-19) Run Differential Last Week: +3 (Overall: +34) Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (5.0 GA) NEWS & NOTES On Sunday, Royce Lewis was recalled from Triple-A, with José Miranda going down. Lewis started in center field. The first couple balls in play came his way, and he fielded them flawlessly. Then, he made a great play running into the wall and hurt his surgically repaired knee, which basically sounds like a worst case scenario. As of Sunday night, Lewis was diagnosed with a bone bruise. We'll learn more in the coming week, but he's going on the injured list. The Twins bullpen has seen a constant flow of churn, which is not exactly out of character for the Twins front office, but still exhausting to keep up with. The past week saw Danny Coulombe activated from the injured list and then placed back on it after aggravating a hip injury in his first appearance. Yennier Canó was optioned to Triple-A in the wake of another ugly outing Friday that left his ERA at 13.50. Juan Minaya and Jovani Moran, who both factored into the second-half bullpen mix last year, have been called up as reinforcements. Veteran reliever Hunter Wood was signed to a minor-league contract and will have a chance to make his case at St. Paul for another big-league shot. Coming back from elbow surgery, he has a 3.34 ERA in 91 ⅔ big-league innings. The Twins are digging deeper than ever into their reliever depth. With Coulombe, Cody Stashak, Josh Winder, and Jorge Alcala all sidelined, they need some guys to step up. In the rotation, Joe Ryan missed his scheduled start on Thursday due to COVID, so Devin Smeltzer was called up for another spot start. Smeltzer delivered once again with seven shutout innings. He'll get another turn in Tuesday's upcoming doubleheader. Elsewhere in the system, pitching prospect Chris Vallimont – designated for assignment the previous week – was claimed off waivers by Baltimore. Gilberto Celestino went on the COVID list two days after Ryan. Max Kepler left Saturday';s game with right quad tightness, although it looks like he'll avoid the IL HIGHLIGHTS The Twins are getting everything they could've possibly hoped for out of Sonny Gray thus far. He delivered his finest outing yet on Tuesday, striking out 10 Tigers over seven shutout innings to spearhead a 2-0 victory. He followed with six innings of one-run ball on Sunday against Kansas City, fanning four with no walks. He exited the game with pectoral soreness. Hopefully it's no big issue, because Gray is becoming exactly what the Twins need him to be: an ace. He's shutting down opposing lineups and going deep, with a clear level of confidence. Gray has been dominating. Of course, he's also been doing so against some pretty weak lineups, with a slate of opponents this month that has included Oakland (twice), Cleveland, Detroit, and Kansas City. We'll get a better idea of his potential playoff mettle when the schedule steepens in June. His next scheduled start is the opener of the Blue Jays series, against a high-powered offense on the road. Luis Arraez continues to key the lineup with remarkably consistent production. He ran his hitting streak to nine games last week, starting everyday and going 12-for-27 with four walks. His on-base percentage sits at .456 on the season, making him an ideal asset at the top of the order. Arraez has also looked surprisingly adept at first base – a position he has now firmly taken over for this team. It's an unexpectedly favorable scenario because it both addresses a key need on the field for the Twins, and also largely hides Arraez's defensive deficiencies. He's not a world-beater at first but he's completely fine there, and it's been huge for the team. Other standout performances from the past week included: Gio Urshela opening the week with a walk-off hit and ending it with a three-run blast on Sunday. He had a couple of three-hit games, and continued to make impressive plays at third base, providing a steady veteran presence at the hot corner. Trevor Larnach was a flat-out dominant force, going 9-for-16 with four homers and eight RBIs. He's a crucial cog in the offense right now. Dylan Bundy took care of business against Detroit on Wednesday, holding the Tigers to one run over 5 ⅔ innings. He struck out six and walked one. Since giving up nine earned runs in Baltimore on May 4th and going on the COVID list almost immediately after, Bundy has allowed just that one run over 8 ⅔ innings in two starts. Unfortunately, the Twins wasted his quality effort on Wednesday with a bullpen hiccup and lack of offensive support, just as they did with Smeltzer the following day. Carlos Correa finished 10-for-32 with two doubles and a homer. He doesn't appear hampered by the finger injury that sidelined him, and is starting to show flashes of his potential with an OPS steadily on the rise. It still feels like we're due for a true breakout hot streak from Correa, and it'd be really nice if that coincided with the upcoming run of tough opponents. LOWLIGHTS Byron Buxton went from red-hot to ice-old quicker than Minnesota temps in September. The center fielder saw his hitless streak stretch to 30 at-bats as he started the week 0-for-17 before legging out an infield single late in Friday's game then notching a couple hits over the weekend. The struggles lowered Buxton's average briefly below .200 and he now sits with a .205/.287/.512 slash line on then season – still well above average thanks to his ridiculous power-hitting display early on. In baseball it's pretty standard for cold streaks to counteract hot streaks in the endless dance toward equilibrium, and Buxton's slump seems like a somewhat extreme version of this. He isn't striking out a ton, nor producing terrible contact. Buxton's six-game hitless spell was driven by a high degree of bad luck and happenstance. Then again, he's also clearly playing through lingering discomfort and physical limitation while on the field. You can see it in his mannerisms as he pulls into second on a double, and you have to believe it's affecting his results. For now, the Twins seem intent to stick with their plan of giving him routine days off and avoiding the injured list. Minnesota's offense has been quite good, in relative terms, but like many around the league this year, they've been prone to lengthy periods of quietude. Buxton's slump is certainly a big ingredient in that, but Ryan Jeffers also taking a plunge (1-for-14 last week) has also factored. Various players throughout the lineup – even those who've generally been playing well – have been coming up short in a lot of key RISP spots lately. On multiple occasions the Twins loaded the bases with no outs in key moments, and came away empty. That, combined with some emerging warts in the bullpen, caused the Twins to lose some of the close games that were previously going their way. Tyler Duffey easily had the team's worst Win Probability Added of the week, as he single-handedly coughed up Thursday's contest by turning a 2-0 lead into a 3-2 deficit. The costly clunker was similar to Duffey's season debut, in that he came in with a clean frame and a lead, and ended up with an L. It bears noting that Duffey seemed to be righting the ship – between those two appearances, he had a 2.76 ERA with six holds and a save in 16 outings – but the right-hander is plainly bringing sub-par stuff. Even when he succeeds, it doesn't have sustainable underpinnings. His fastballs are 91-MPH cookies. Even the bread-and-butter breaking ball that fueled Duffey's emergence as a reliever isn't doing what it used to. TRENDING STORYLINE On Saturday night, with Max Kepler facing a potential IL stint following his exit with right leg tightness, I pondered whether Lewis or Alex Kirilloff would get the call to fill his roster spot. It turns out Kepler avoided the injured list, but Lewis was called up anyway, and he ended up on IL in a wild turn of events. So now... Kirilloff has got to be coming up. Right? LOOKING AHEAD The Twins are in the thick of it right now. They're amidst a stretch of 18 games in 17 days, including an upcoming scheduled doubleheader on Tuesday. This is going to be a hell of a week. Granted, the Twins open with five games against a Tigers team they have mostly handled. But they're on the road, and five games in four days presents many challenges no matter whom the opponent. Far from getting any respite after this sprint, the Twins head straight to Toronto for three games against a very good Blue Jays team. This opens a run of three straight series against the top three teams in the AL East. They did a solid job against an extended run against cushy competition, but now the Twins are going to see their mettle put to the test. We're scheduled to see an old friend next Saturday. MONDAY, 5/30: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Dylan Bundy v. RHP Beau Brieske TUESDAY, 5/31 (1): TWINS @ TIGERS – LHP Devin Smeltzer v. RHP Rony Garcia TUESDAY, 5/31 (2): TWINS @ TIGERS – TBD v. TBD WEDNESDAY, 6/1: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Bailey Ober v. LHP Tarik Skubal THURSDAY, 6/2: TWINS @ TIGERS – RHP Chris Archer v. RHP Alex Faedo FRIDAY, 6/3: TWINS @ BLUE JAYS – RHP Sonny Gray v. LHP Yusei Kikuchi SATURDAY, 6/4: TWINS @ BLUE JAYS – RHP Dylan Bundy v. RHP Jose Berríos SUNDAY, 6/5: TWINS @ BLUE JAYS – TBD v. RHP Kevin Gausman View full article

Max Kepler left Saturday's game with right quad tightness, and it sounds like there's a fair chance he'll land on the injured list. Should that happen, the player called up to replace him will almost certainly be either Alex Kirilloff or Royce Lewis. So let's try to answer two questions: who will it be, and who should it be? After coming out of Saturday's loss to Kansas City with leg tightness, Max Kepler's status going forward was in doubt. The right fielder was due for an MRI, with Rocco Baldelli saying "it could go either way" in terms of an IL stint. The thing is: even if the Twins think he could return in a few days, they might be inclined to place Kepler in IL anyway. They've already been bitten by shorthanded benches, in instances where Byron Buxton and Jorge Polanco were active yet unavailable as late-game subs. Now the Twins are in the middle of an absolute gauntlet of games and travel, with no breaks. Even if Kepler avoids the IL, Minnesota is surely going to need reinforcements soon enough, so the question is pertinent either way: which of their top two talents at Triple-A is next in line? The Case for Royce Lewis Many felt he should've never been sent down to begin with, having excelled during an 11-game stint with the Twins following a scorching hot start at Triple-A. But the Twins wanted to get him a little seasoning around the field so as to ensure Lewis – fresh off missing two full seasons – wasn't taking on too much at once. It's only been a couple weeks since they sent him down, but Lewis has basically shown everything you could want to see in terms of readiness. He's continued to rake with an ultra-aggressive, free-swinging approach. He's made starts in left field, center, and at third, in addition to shortstop. He's flashed immediate proclivity at these new positions. Lewis is the kind of electric difference-maker that would have a real chance to offset the significant loss of a guy like Kepler, who's been one of Minnesota's most valuable players this year. And now the Twins can feel some confidence in moving Lewis around the field to keep him in the lineup everyday. The Case for Alex Kirilloff Unlike Lewis, there is no developmental reason to have Kirilloff in Triple-A, other than: he's not right, and they need him to get right. There are signs he has gotten right. Since being sent down to Triple-A in the middle of May, Kirilloff is hitting .364/.435/.509, so it's safe to say he's a step ahead of minor-league pitching. The question is whether he can translate that success to the majors, where he has a .398 OPS in 10 games this year, and some ugly underlying metrics. The power still hasn't really shown up for Kirilloff – 16 of his 20 hits since returning to the Saints have been singles, although he does have a couple of home runs, including a two-run blast on a good-looking swing Thursday. Kirilloff is a more straightforward one-for-one swap for Kepler than Lewis, given that he's a lefty-swinging corner outfielder. You could essentially plug Kirilloff right into Kep's role, while perhaps mixing in some days at first base and spelling Luis Arraez as DH. Who Will the Twins Choose? The final tidbit above makes me feel like Kirilloff has a good chance. It's easy, it's tidy. However, I tend to think Lewis might have the inside edge. Part of it is that the Twins need a real spark to get through this upcoming stretch if Kepler is sidelined. Lewis has been consistently tearing it up and impressing this year. Kirilloff, despite his very good numbers, is not quite slugging to a convincing extent at Triple-A. Lewis is just a better bet to make a bigger impact. The other thing, and maybe the bigger thing, is that the Twins are in a grind right now. They haven't had a day off in almost two weeks, and they're looking ahead to nine games in the next eight days, with a road doubleheader mixed in. Right now the Twins need bodies they can rely on. Rocco Baldelli probably would (and should) feel inclined to take it somewhat easy on Kirilloff, who is still feeling pain through his swing. Kirilloff certainly would not play both ends of a doubleheader for instance. Lewis, though? He's a spry and incredibly athletic 22-year-old who can play multiple key positions. He's shown no signs of hindrance from last year's knee injury – Lewis stole his 12th base in his 34th game at St. Paul on Saturday. Hopefully Kepler's MRI comes out clean and he's back in the lineup within a few days. If not, I think Lewis gets the call, though it wouldn't surprise me at all if Kirilloff is the choice. Do you see the Twins going with Lewis or Kirilloff as their next position player call-up? Or maybe another direction? We'd love to hear your thoughts in the comments! View full article