Nick Nelson

Sounds like it was indeed the ankle causing SF concern:

A new article in The Athletic offers behind-the-scenes insight on Carlos Correa's free agent pivot from the Giants to Mets. For those wondering, it sounds like did Scott Boras re-engage the Twins to try and coax them back into the market. Minnesota balked, and that was it. Let's dig into the details. Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports In a tremendously reported new article for The Athletic, Andy McCullough and Ken Rosenthal bring us a revealing account of the latest stunning twist in Carlos Correa's bizarre free agency saga. On Tuesday, about one week after agreeing to terms with Correa on a $350 million, we learned the Giants were postponing an introductory press conference for the signature signing, over concerns surfaced in his physical. Suddenly, the deal appeared to be in doubt. Sure enough, it completely fell through, and by the time we awoke this morning Correa had already agreed to a lesser deal with the Mets: 12 years, $315 million. It all happened so quickly, we wondered if the Twins – reportedly one of the two finalists for CC before Steve Cohen entered the fray – ever even had the chance to jump back in. It turns out, they did. And they decided against it. Per The Athletic, as Boras revived discussions with Cohen and the Mets, he "also contacted the Twins." "The presence of the Mets gave Boras leverage," according to the reporting. "If Minnesota wanted Correa, Boras conveyed, the team needed to improve its earlier offer – even though Correa appeared compromised with the Giants. The Twins would not have advanced the conversation without investigating the potential issues caused by Correa’s physical. The team did not intend to increase its bid beyond 10 years and $285 million. So Boras stuck with the man in Hawaii (Cohen)." So there you have it. I'm not sure anyone can hold the Twins front office at fault in this situation, given that they merely appear to have been doing their due diligence. Why increase your offer after some mysterious issue was flagged and torpedoed an historic deal? That's not to say they intended to increase their offer even if the medicals checked out – sure sounds like they had reached their definitive max. But at the very least they were within their rights to take a beat and figure out what's going on. Alas, that wasn't to be, because – for whatever reason – Boras is in a sudden rush to get this thing done. And that is strange to me. He's typically an agent known for exercising extreme patience in order to get his clients the best deal possible. Now he's giving up $35 million from the first agreed-upon contract to settle for a lesser deal with New York, because – in Boras' own words – the Giants wanted to conduct more investigation on the second-largest contract in major-league history. "They advised us they still had questions," he said. "They still wanted to talk to other people, other doctors, go through it." Sounds like the Twins sang a similar tune, and that was also a deal-breaker. Based on the information currently out there, it's easy to hold the Giants accountable as incompetent and noncommittal fools in this situation. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that, "It sounds as if there was a very old Correa injury - pre MLB - that was raised as a potential issue. It has not cropped up again. None of Correa’s other physical issues have required medical intervention or ongoing treatment." Slusser adds: "If this was a true medical concern, it sounds a little tenuous - and if it was a matter of cold feet, that’s usually ownership. Not the front office." Doesn't sound so good for the Giants. But then, the information being relayed to Slusser is pretty clearly coming from Boras – notably, she was quick to tweet initially that Correa's medial issue did NOT involve his back, at a time when no other details were emerging – and the team has thus far been silent. One report from Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area indicates that the Giants were concerned about a previous ankle injury that required surgery and insertion of a metal plate, as I speculated yesterday while recalling that the injury had been stirred up during a stolen base attempt with the Twins this past season. Clearly, the Giants were ready to sign Correa. They certainly had the money after missing out on Aaron Judge. An agreement was in place. The press conference was scheduled and ready to go. Something spooked them. And given the circumstances, Minnesota's front office wasn't going to blindly dive back in, to the extent they were ever interested in hanging with New York. So as of now, Correa is lined up to play alongside Francisco Lindor, at third base for the Mets. Given all that's happened, it's hard to take for granted that's what will play out. But either way it now seems clearer than ever it's time for the Twins to move on. View full article

Last week, everyone came to believe the Carlos Correa free agent derby was over when it was reported that the star shortstop had agreed to a $350 million deal with the San Francisco Giants. On Tuesday, this was all thrown into doubt with Correa's introductory presser (and official signing) postponed over reported concerns in the shortstop's physical. Image courtesy of Nick Wosika, USA TODAY Sports A report from the Associated Press on Tuesday afternoon indicates that San Francisco's official signing of Carlos Correa, and the corresponding introductory press conference, have been postponed over "a medical concern arose during the All-Star shortstop’s physical." Few details are known at this point, but it's fair to say this is a significant development. Rarely do you see a prominent signing of this magnitude publicly stall out at this stage. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that whatever issue emerged in Correa's physical, it is not a back issue, ruling out one area of the body that has affected the shortstop in the past. The news of a medical issue being flagged is surprising to say the least given that nothing came up in last year's physical ahead of signing with the Twins, and Correa seemed to get through the 2022 season with a relatively clean bill of health. One wonders if the surgically repaired ankle that barked at him on at least one occasion this season could be involved. To be clear, this is pure speculation. But the only other known health issues experienced by Correa this past season were a bout with COVID and bone bruise in his thumb, neither of which would seem to pose any long-term risk. What happens from here? That's anybody's guess. Perhaps this will prove to be a meaningless blip and further clarity will lead to the original deal being honored. (That seems unlikely now that we've reached this point.) Maybe Correa and the Giants will reconfigure the deal in a way that both sides are comfortable with. Or, maybe, the door just opened for the Twins to re-enter the fray. It's not out of the question. Visit back soon for more analysis and added details as they trickle in. At the moment, we don't know much, but we do know this: Correa has NOT signed with the Giants, and it's suddenly not clear he will. View full article

Triple-A? Both have options. Gallo also has flexibility to move around which is what makes him preferable to Kepler. AK and Larnach need to show they can stay healthy for a sustained period of time before anything else really matters.

I doubt that's the plan. It's more an issue of, you can't really count on those guys or Kirilloff right now, so this gives you a short-term plug with some upside and allows you to be patient while seeing what shakes out.

It's mystifying to see Twins fans say this after watching the most rally-allergic offense ever last offseason. They struck out less than the average team but ranked second in the AL in GIDP. Contact isn't always good.

If Joey Gallo was a free agent last offseason, he would've gotten a $100 million contract pretty easily. Are people aware of this? I feel like there's a tremendous disconnect on this board with how good Gallo was before 2022.

lol what? He hit 38 home runs and won a Gold Glove in 2021.

The Twins are signing Joey Gallo to a one-year, $11 million contract coming off the worst year of his career. That description might not even quite do it justice. Gallo, by his own admission, lived out his worst nightmare this past season. Now, he comes to Minnesota seeking redemption and a reset. Image courtesy of Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports Before we talk about Joey Gallo at his worst, let's talk about Joey Gallo at his best, which is the form he'll seek to recapture in a make-good contract with the Twins. From 2017 through 2021, Gallo slashed .208/.338/.485 with 110 home runs in 428 games. He was an All-Star twice and won two Gold Gloves. He was worth 3+ fWAR in three of four non-COVID seasons, and 2.8 in the other. For reference, here are the Twins players who have managed to put up 3+ fWAR in a season over the past two years: Byron Buxton (twice), Jorge Polanco, Carlos Correa, Luis Arraez, Josh Donaldson. Gallo was at his absolute best in 2021, despite a .199 batting average that will cause many old-schoolers to roll their eyes. He led the league in walks (and yes, strikeouts) while blasting 38 home runs for the Rangers and Yankees. Gallo is a three-true-outcomes guy, but when it's clicking – as it was pretty consistently for five seasons ahead of 2022 – he's perhaps the best there is in that mold. Which helps explain why he's been acquired over the past two seasons by a couple of the foremost championship contenders in Major League Baseball: the Yankees acquired him from the Rangers at the 2021 deadline, and the Dodgers acquired him from New York this past deadline. Of course, that brings us to the present situation. Gallo was straight-up horrible in 2022. There's simply no way around it. And it happened in the worst setting possible. Maybe you've heard: Yankees fans aren't too forgiving. When he was dealt away from the Yankees this year, a New York Post article reflected on "Gallo’s nightmare tenure in The Bronx," suggesting he would "go down as one of the biggest trade busts in Yankees history." The experience was none too pleasant for Gallo himself. "I don’t go out in the streets," Gallo said in an interview upon departing from New York. "I really don’t want to show my face too much around here." "I went through a lot of adversity and I really had to question myself a lot," he added. "My confidence suffered. I would say I hit rock bottom for the big leagues. So for me, I just was trying to remember to be a good teammate, play the game the right way, play the game hard and not do something stupid that I’d regret. I learned a lot about myself, I guess. Baseball is a tough game. But it definitely made me stronger because not many people have gone through what I’ve gone through." Unfortunately, things didn't improve much for Gallo in Los Angeles, where the expectations and pressure didn't exactly diminish. He slashed .162/.277/.393 in 44 games with the Dodgers, finishing the year with a miserable 0.6 fWAR and 0.2 bWAR, and with that, it was off to free agency for the first time. Needless to say, Gallo didn't find a very receptive market. And that's how he wound up on the Twins with a one-year, $11 million deal, looking to make good and rebuild his market. He likely would've made more than $100 million had he reached the open market last offseason, adding to the frustration he's no doubt feeling. A big payday remains possible for Gallo. He needs to earn it, and he knows that. So he chooses to head to the more easygoing, low-pressure environment of the Twin Cities in hopes of rebuilding his value. Sounds familiar, huh? We saw a similar narrative play out just a year ago when the Twins acquired Gary Sanchez from New York in the Josh Donaldson trade. In that case, going to Minnesota wasn't the player's choice, but the storylines about a return to prime form after escaping from the bright lights of the Bronx naturally took shape. Sanchez had his own public drama with Yankees fans and media. As we now know, the Sanchez's redemption story with the Twins didn't quite play out as he hoped – it was another sub par campaign that reaffirmed his fade from glory and now leaves him struggling to market himself in free agency. There's good reason to believe Gallo will be a different story: namely, his peak performance is not so dreadfully far in the rearview mirror. Whereas Sanchez came to the Twins with just one decent year in his past four, Gallo's been good-to-great every year BUT one. It's somewhat rare for a former standout player to re-emerge as a star after many consecutive years of below-average performance. It's fairly common for steadily productive players to rebound after one down year. As poorly as Gallo played in 2022, that's all it was at this point. Now he enters his age-29 season with huge personal stakes. Signing Gallo is hardly a worthwhile signature move of the offseason, but it does represent the first true effort by the front office to raise the 2023 team's ceiling, as opposed to filling holes and bolstering its floor. We need more of that going forward. View full article

The Twins got their catcher, but that development was overshadowed days later when they missed out on their shortstop and top offseason target. The front office has a sizable cash reserve but few remaining paths to spend it. They've buoyed their floor but failed to raise their ceiling in any way. Where do we go from here? Image courtesy of Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports Carlos Correa Signs Mega-Deal with San Francisco Giants Sadly, the biggest headline of the Minnesota Twins offseason thus far has been their heartbreak: Correa, whom the team pursued with a level of intention and aggressiveness that far surpasses any free agent target in franchise history, opted for the San Francisco Giants. Thirteen years, $350 million. Whew. In the end, despite pushing themselves to (or past) their limit, the Twins ultimately fell vastly short of the big-market Giants, who made Correa the second highest-paid free agent in MLB history. It was a level the Twins were never going to realistically reach. Although they made an adamant effort and were, by all accounts, the runner-up for Correa, they came nowhere near matching the giant offer. Now the front office must regroup and figure out what's next. High-end options have dwindled and impact trade options are limited. On the bright side, they do have the luxury of aiming basically wherever they please in terms of making upgrades, because the Twins checked off their last essential need from the shopping the list earlier in the week by signing a new catcher. Twins Sign Christian Vazquez to Three-Year Deal The front office was able to confidently address its top non-Correa priority of the offseason: signing a catcher who can not only share time with Ryan Jeffers at catcher, but take over as the lead dog if needed. On Monday we learned that the Twins agreed to terms with Vazquez on a three-year deal worth $30 million. While it barely registers in comparison to the mammoth $285 million offer to Correa, Vazquez's new contract amazingly ranks as the third-largest signed by any free agent under this front office. While certainly not to be confused with a viable "big splash of the offseason," the Vazquez signing is a bold and assertive one from the front office. He's no star, but he's a respected, reliable, experienced backstop who offers tremendous stability at a position that had little, and adds credibility to Minnesota's position player unit. That's all well and good, but a downtrodden fan base needs more than a solid catcher who fills a need. The Twins need a signature move or two to salvage this wayward offseason. Unfortunately, one of the few remaining star-caliber assets on the market was snatched up on Thursday night. Yankees Reel in Carlos Rodon on Six-Year Contract It's unclear how hard they tried, but Minnesota's hopes of acquiring a frontline starter from free agency have officially gone kaput. The last ace-caliber arm is now off the board after Rodon agreed to a six-year, $162 million contract with the Yankees. I'll be honest: I'd want no part of that deal. As great as he's been over the past couple seasons, Rodon is an extremely volatile property and the idea of entering a six-year guaranteed pact with those kinds of AAVs makes me all kinda nervous. If they're gonna spend that kind of money on a starting pitcher it shouldn't be out of leveraged desperation. Still, it would've been a major statement move, and now there aren't many such opportunities for one. In fact, on the free agent market, there's only one. Twins Turn Their Attention to Dansby Swanson. Then What? The Twins have been connected via rumors to Swanson but I always suspected it to be a negotiating ploy to gain leverage in Correa talks. My skepticism mainly stems from the fact that he seems like the type of high-risk long-term investment this front office avidly avoids. However, from talking to a few trusted people, I do get the sense the Twins are legitimate in their pursuit, contradicting a Jon Heyman report that they "appear to be regrouping after losing out on Carlos Correa, so Swanson’s likely out." I can't say I'm at all confident they'll sign the former Braves shortstop, but I do believe they're going to give a real shot. They'll face stiff competition because they're not the only club that missed out on numerous top targets and has money left to burn. Should they miss out on Swanson, it'll be interesting to see if the Twins can find a way to spend their way back to the 2022 threshold. Or if they even care to do so. Roster and Payroll Projection: v3 The specific breakdown of Vazquez's $30 million deal haven't been revealed yet, to my knowledge. But assuming it's split evenly at $10 million/year, his addition pushes the projected 2023 payroll up above 100 mil by just a hair. Unless the Twins can pull a stunner and sign Swanson, or pull a rabbit out of their hat with a big trade, it's going be a dreary and bleak holiday for baseball fans in Minnesota, who've had to sit idly by while watching everyone else open up their awesome presents. New uniforms and Christian Vazquez ain't gonna cut it. The front office needs to step up and take action unless they want a large portion of their followers to simply check out. View full article

I don't think Crawford would cost much of anything in terms of prospects, which is part of the appeal. His remaining contract (1 yr/$16M) is probably about neutral value.

Also, if people are wary of paying a bunch of money for an all-glove, no-bat SS in his mid-30s for ONE SEASON ... I've got some bad news about Dansby Swanson...

If people don't think there's a chance Crawford accepts the trade, that's fine. Probably correct. But the idea he's not a legit upgrade over Farmer is puzzling to me. The Reds moved away from Farmer as their SS in August last year. The REDS! Here are their fWARs over the past 3 seasons: 2022 Farmer - 1.4 Crawford - 2.0 2021 Farmer - 1.9 Crawford - 6.4 2020 Farmer - 0.2 Crawford - 1.6 That's before you account for the off-the-field intangibles, which honestly is what I think would be the primary driver for the Twins pursuing a player like him. They're reeling from what they lost in that regard with Correa almost as much as the on-field impact. If there are other guys out there who could fill that void, I'm all ears.

San Francisco needed a star and they got one, signing Carlos Correa to a $350 million deal earlier this week. He looks like a very nice fit in the Bay, with one notable catch: the Giants already have a beloved shortstop who's been their regular fixture at the position for a decade. As it happens, Crawford would be a near-perfect fit for the team Correa just departed. Image courtesy of John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports At the beginning of the offseason, I highlighted Brandon Crawford as one of the three most probable shortstop trade targets for the Twins. Now that Carlos Correa has been signed to supplant the longtime Giants shortstop, it feels like an idea worth revisiting. The plan for now, supposedly, is for Crawford to slide to third base and make room for Correa. For Giants fans and followers, it comes as no surprise that the 35-year-old is willing to move away from the only position he's ever known for the good of the team. Crawford is renowned as a top-notch clubhouse fixture and team player. He's also turning 36 in January, and entering his final season under contract, coming off an underwhelming season for the G-men. Crawford slashed .231/.308/.344 for an 85 OPS+ that ranks among the worst of any season in his career. Nearly all of his value came from fielding, but that value was considerable, with a 93rd percentile OAA contributing to his very respectable 2.0 fWAR. Crawford has always been a very good shortstop and has never known anything else. His 1,525 defensive starts in the majors have ALL come at short. He's won four Gold Gloves. The idea of him playing elsewhere seems zany in concept, and much more so when you account for the fact that his whole value as a player by this point derives from shortstop defense. In moving him to the hot corner, they're basically hoping that he'll adapt instantly and become a hugely valuable defender at a position he's never played – or they're hoping his bat rebounds, although he's generally been a pretty average hitter. Both feel like kind of a stretch? For the Giants, it feels weird to be relying on such a gambit in a season where they've invested so much in pushing hard for immediate contention. For all of his intangible qualities, the on-field reality of Crawford as third baseman on a bonafide contender has the potential to be disastrous, and he'll be making $16 million to boot. Given their druthers, San Francisco would surely love to unload Crawford on a team that needs a short-term veteran fix at shortstop and has many to burn. Hey! (Cue light bulb clicking.) Of course, there's a hitch in that plan. Accordant to Major League's Baseball's 10-and-5 rule, Crawford has the ability to veto any trade. He has spent his entire career in San Francisco and is basically an institution there. Even if the Twins would really like to have him, and the Giants would really like to move him, it all comes down to the player himself. People who follow the team tell me the idea of Crawford willingly leaving to go to Minnesota for one year at the end of his contract in his age 36 season feels outlandish. And as I type out the sentence, it sure does feel that way. But maybe the Twins could sell him on the idea of taking over as unquestioned leader for an upstart hungry squad? A new challenge to round out a commendable career? Or maybe Crawford feels like shortstop is his home more than San Fran? I'll admit, the whole thing feels like a stretch. But stretching my imagination is all I can do as I try to figure out how the Twins are going to burn their ample remaining funds, while trying to replace even a semblance of what they lost in Correa as clubhouse staple and steady presence at short, without making the gargantuan (IMO ill-advised) commitment it will require to get Dansby Swanson. View full article

Hi there. Welcome. Have a seat. As you can see, there are quite a few of us. This is a cope session. We're here to help you through this difficult time and find a way forward. Keep reading and we'll begin the journey together. Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports Late on Tuesday night, it was announced that Carlos Correa has agreed to a 13-year, $350 million contract with the San Francisco Giants. In our hearts, most of us expected this. Correa is a top-tier free agent who landed in Minnesota last year by pure happenstance, and whose ultimate new contract eclipsed the Twins' (historically unprecedented!) offer by roughly 80 mil. Let us work our way through the five stages of grief. DENIAL It can't be! Carlos said he loved it here! The Twins were hanging in there and Correa's market was seemingly shaping up in disappointing fashion. Perhaps this report is all part of some elaborate ploy from Boras to increase Minnesota's offer. Sorry, but nah. This looks pretty official. ANGER What a jerk. He said he liked it here but all he really wanted was the money. In any case, the Pohlads could have spent enough to make it happen if they really wanted to -- they're billionaires! Oh great, the Twins came in second place once again for a premier free agent. Hoist the freaking banner. BARGAINING You know what? Screw Correa. He's a cheater. He didn't really want to be here that much anyway; he and Scott Boras were only using the Twins as leverage to get the deal they wanted from San Francisco. Good riddance to 'em. Plenty of other fish in the sea! In fact, I'm actually GLAD the Twins didn't sign Correa to the contract they finally offered. Who needs to be committing that kind of money to a guy into his late 30s? Besides, if they want to make a big free agent splash, Carlos Rodon and Dansby Swanson are still out there! DEPRESSION Ugh. Do we really want Rodon or Swanson? Is there any feasible chance either of them signs here anyway? Correa was a unique situation: a player who the Twins had an opportunity to test-drive, a superstar who acclimated well to a smaller market, and someone the organization valued for traits well beyond his on-field ability. He was our guy. He's gone, and it's highly unlikely the Twins will sign either of the other remaining impact free agents. This offseason is doomed. From this vantage, it's hard to see the front office running out a significantly improved roster for 2023. I'm going to Arby's. ACCEPTANCE We knew from the start that realistically the Twins probably weren't going to sign Correa, or Swanson, or Rodon. They're going to need to move on and find other ways to improve. There is still a wave of mid-tier free agents on the market, as well as any number of trade opportunities. Right now the offseason outlook is rather bleak for the Twins, but they've had a tendency to rally late and surprise us in the past. All we can do is stay tuned and see where they go from here. Our community here at Twins Daily will be here to help you celebrate, or grieve, no matter what happens next. View full article

By almost any standard other than the Minnesota Twins and their current front office, the newly minted three-year contract for catcher Christian Vázquez would not be all that significant or noteworthy. As it happens, their reported commitment of $30 million ranks as the third-largest for a free agent in six years since this front office took over. Image courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports Derek Falvey and Thad Levine moved quickly after taking the reins in 2016, signing catcher Jason Castro to a three-year, $24.5 million contract as their first move. It would be the new regime's largest commitment to a free agent until 2020, when they made waves by signing third baseman Josh Donaldson for four years and $92 million. An audacious move coming off a breakthrough season. Donaldson's deal nearly doubled the franchise record-holder for biggest free agent contract: Ervin Santana for four years and $52 million, almost eight years ago to the day (12/14/14). Donaldson's two-year tenure with the Twins was unfulfilling, and the team was happy to move on when they unloaded his remaining contract to New York this past February. They used the newfound payroll space to make an even bigger splash: signing Carlos Correa to a three-year, $105 million stunner. He opted out of that deal a few weeks ago, as expected. Which brings us to this week, where the Twins have agreed to terms with Christian Vazquez on a three-year deal worth $30 million over three years. With that, we've covered all of the biggest free agent commitments ever from this front office: Vazquez (#3) nests behind Correa (#1) and Donaldson (#2) as the heftiest contract in six offseasons, and – along with Castro – the only deals spanning three or more years. There are a few ways to react to this. The first, of course is: wow, that really puts the Twins' aversion to free agent spending in context. Their biggest splurges under this regime have been two solid yet unspectacular catchers, and two superstar infielders, whose contracts more or less melded into one. (Twins basically turned the last $52 million owed to Donaldson into $35 million for Correa.) Castro is, thus far, the only one of these players who actually played out at least three years of his contract as a Twin. Vázquez will presumably join him, bridging us to the other reaction: the front office must REALLY like Christian Vázquez. Clearly they are deeply uncomfortable with long-term contracts, especially for aging players. If they wanted to, the Twins could have certainly bided their time to wait out the remaining trade market, or turned their attention to another free agent around the middle tier. They passed up the opportunity to pursue a (likely cheaper) true platoon partner for Ryan Jeffers, such as Omar Narváez or Tucker Barnhardt, in order to aggressively acquire Vázquez – who was reportedly their #1 free agent catching target from the start. What do they like so much about the 32-year-old to make such a (relatively) big leap? Vázquez has a number of appealing qualities, one of which is pitch-framing – particularly high in the zone) – as Lucas Seehafer laid out in detail. There's also his relatively neutral platoon split, his strong throwing arm, and his reputed clubhouse presence. Beyond that, the Twins' willingness to pay a real premium for the backstop comes down to two core things: safety and experience. SAFETY This is the biggest factor without question, in my mind. Coming into this offseason, the catcher position was a glaring hole on an otherwise structurally sound roster. Dan Hayes writes in The Athletic that the team was "desperate to find a catcher in free agency." Vázquez has had an up-and-down career, with occasional solid offensive bursts counterbalanced by long unproductive stretches ... but he's been serviceable at worst. Even when his bat is amiss, he remains a steady defensive player and durable mainstay. He might arguably lack the upside of a Zunino or Narváez, but he's got a higher and sturdier floor. And that's what this move does: complete the front office's floor-raising setup for whatever is next. EXPERIENCE The Astros acquired Vázquez from Boston at the deadline this year, valuing him as a seasoned vet who could contribute during the stretch and into the playoffs. He played 41 games for Houston in August, September, and October, aiding their successful pursuit of a World Series championship. It was the second ring for Vázquez, who won another in Boston in 2018 and took part in a deep run with the Red Sox in 2021. For a Twins organization that was devoid of ANY meaningful big-league catching experience beyond Jeffers' 600 plate appearances ... it's easy to see why this track record would be very appealing. Now, the big remaining question is whether this front office is going to add another top contract to its modest historical ledger. Amazingly, Vázquez's $30 million contract has now entered their top three -- and the top six in franchise history, adding in Santana and Ricky Nolasco. If Vázquez remains on either of those lists by the time the offseason is over, it'll be hard to see how this winter would be viewed as a success. View full article

Flexen would not be the reason for giving up Kepler in that scenario. My thinking is that Seattle would be more willing to give up Miller (their second best pitching prospect) if they can move Flexen's $8M salary in the deal to offset Kepler's. It's about buying a better prospect since the Twins have no shortage of cash. I'd have low expectations for Flex but he's not without upside. Check out his 2021 numbers.

It's no secret that Max Kepler is on the trading block this winter, entering his final guaranteed season under team control while growing redundant on the Twins roster. In sizing up possible trade partners for Kepler, there is one team that stands out to me as a particularly intuitive fit: an AL West club with whom Minnesota may find itself competing for a playoff spot next year. Image courtesy of Brad Penner, USA Today The 2022 season was a characteristic one for Max Kepler: solid yet underwhelming. He was a fairly valuable overall player, posting 2.0 fWAR thanks primarily to his elite defense in right field. His offense, as usual, was suppressed by a debilitatingly low BABIP as opposing defenses suffocated him with the shift. There's encouraging news on that front, which could enhance Kepler's marketability. But more on that shortly. The bottom line is that, even if his luster has largely worn off in the eyes of Twins fans, Kepler IS a quality asset with appeal to many contending teams in need of a lefty corner outfield bat. There are several such clubs, and one of the best ways to identify them is by following who is pursuing (and missing out on) free agents that share the same profile. Among them: the Seattle Mariners. There are a few different reasons the Mariners stand out to me as a logical trade partner for the Twins and Kepler. The first is that their general manager is Jerry Dipoto, one of the most prolific wheelers and dealers on the GM circuit. Trade speculation is always valid when Jerry's involved. Seattle's specific situation also frames them as a practical landing spot for Kepler. The M's got horrible production from both outfield corners in 2022, and it was one of the biggest flaws on a 90-win team that made the playoffs but couldn't push deep. Mitch Haniger's injury-plagued year put right field in limbo for Seattle, while Jesse Winker was a defensive disaster and mediocre bat in left. Haniger's now gone, with Teoscar Hernandez acquired from Toronto to replace his powerful right-handed bat. It still seems as though Dipoto and Seattle are still seeking another lefty-hitting outfielder to complement Hernandez and Julio Rodriguez, as illustrated by their reported pursuit of Brandon Nimmo (who re-signed with the Mets) and Andrew Benintendi. The Mariners are looking for assurance and Kepler offers it. He's been worth two or more Wins Above Replacement in every full season of his career. Entering his age-30 season, he's a safe bet to at least be a solid fixture and a big upgrade over what the Mariners had last year. The new defensive shifting limitations, along with the outfielder's stellar Statcast measurables, could hint at legitimate upside. Kepler's contract situation – one more guaranteed season at $8.5 million with a 2024 team option at $10 million – is part of what I see as making him attractive to Seattle specifically. They have a pair of top prospects who happen to be lefty-swinging outfielders: Jarred Kelenic (23) and Taylor Trammell (25). Both have struggled to turn the corner in the majors, but its too early to give up on either. And by following this route, the Mariners wouldn't need to. The flexible control over Kepler's next two seasons enables Seattle to keep the door open for both, while gaining reliable veteran stability as they push to take the next step in the interim. From Minnesota's perspective, what makes Seattle an intriguing partner is their abundance of young pitching. In addition to veteran stalwarts Robbie Ray and Marco Gonzales, as well as deadline acquisition Luis Castillo, the Mariners had three different pitchers 27 and under in 2022 who made 25+ starts with an ERA of 3.73 or lower (George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Chris Flexen). Kirby or Gilbert would likely not be on the table unless Minnesota offered significantly more than Kepler. But Flexen seems attainable, if not one of Seattle's many relief arms or mid-tier prospects. What do you think? Which teams strike you as the best trade partners for Kepler, and what would a realistic return look like? View full article