Nick Nelson

There's no breaking down this foundation. And that's not the worst thing, because it's a viable foundation in spite of how this latest season ended. The front office should be looking to add, not subtract. Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-Imagn Images In a piece published in the Minnesota Star Tribune over the weekend, veteran columnist Patrick Reusse takes a rather odd angle in sizing up the Twins and their offseason outlook. "Pressure will be on Twins to spend money," the headline states, "but they should rebuild instead." This immediately raises a question: What does a "rebuild" look like for the Twins? Traditionally the term refers to a strategy that involves tearing down a roster to the studs, clearing out expensive veteran contracts and starting fresh--typically with low payroll and low expectations (but high draft picks!) in the short term. We saw the Astros do it successfully. We saw the White Sox do it less successfully. Jury is still out on the Orioles, who are currently in the process of trying to parlay their many years of losing and amassing young talent into a championship run. So far, not so good. To many of us fans, the act of "rebuilding" as portrayed above is a BS approach meant to provide cover for ownership to not spend and front offices to not try. I don't doubt, sadly, that if they had the capability the Twins might try to go that route. But let's be very clear: They don't have that capability. Carlos Correa is locked into for another four years and $140 million, guaranteed. He'll make $37 million next year and there's no getting around that. Byron Buxton, likewise, has a four more guaranteed years on his contract, at $15 million annually. Both players have full no-trade clauses, and even if one or both were willing to waive theirs, the front office wouldn't be able to find a trade partner willing to take on their contracts at this point given their health situations. Those are the two players a traditionally rebuilding team would aim to unload in efforts to start fresh. It's not an option for Minnesota. And Reusse knows that; he's not suggesting trading Correa or Buxton. Instead he references the decision Terry Ryan made more than a decade ago to sign Ricky Nolasco as an unhelpful, reactionary, overpriced free agent on a losing team. In fact, Reusse's summarizing conclusion literally amounts to: "No Nolascos." Which ... what?! I mean, yes, obviously. Don't sign Ricky Nolasco, literally or figuratively: He proved to be an ineffective malcontent, but also, throwing big money at unspectacular starting pitchers aging into their 30s is a losing proposition. Those aren't the kinds of moves Derek Falvey has ever made. It's part of the reason he replaced TR. There's no need to warn him against it. If we pull back from that specific example, we can perceive Reusse's mandate to be: Don't spend any more money on this roster. That's an argument that falls flat with me. I don't think anyone is realistically expecting payroll to jump back to the $160 million range where it was in 2023, but I also don't think local columnists need to be using their platform to urge ownership to not add at all, or even to cut further. It's nonsensical. As we just discussed, Correa and Buxton are going to be here next year, making a combined $50 million. They're still in their physical primes, and both just showed us that they can still play at an elite, game-changing level when healthy. The Twins invested all of this money into them with the idea of building a winning team around them. And that's the thing: They have plenty of components in place already to do so. Reusse spent much of his column talking about all the young talent the Twins have ushered in, or will soon, as a rationale for following his suggested approach. Hand it over to the young guys. This isn't a misguided notion, and the Nolasco example makes some sense through that lens: The Twins would've been better off just giving innings to their own young starters or experimenting with cheap reclamation signings versus running out a sub-mediocre Nolasco to eat innings on 90-loss teams. But that was a failure of decision-making, not investment. Thirteen million dollars can get you Ricky Nolasco or it can get you Nelson Cruz. If we want to take Reusse's "rebuilding" suggestion to a practical conclusion, the biggest move they could actually make would be trading Pablo López, whose salary will escalate to $21 million over the next three years. Unlike Correa or Buxton, he actually has surplus value and could bring in a haul. But is that actually a move Reusse, or anyone, would endorse? If we're talking about rebuilds, that's what we're talking about, so let's keep that term in the proper context. The foundation that's in place for the Twins is fairly immovable, so the question is whether they're going to build around it and maximize their chances of success, or further sabotage the champion vision that they've already invested so heavily in. View full article

Facing another major payroll crunch in the offseason and needing to infuse the 2025 roster with whatever offensive upside they can, it won't be all that easy for the Twins to move on from Alex Kirilloff, even if there are plenty of sound arguments for doing so. Image courtesy of Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images Let's begin by acknowledging the obvious: There are plenty of reasons for the Twins to want be ready to part ways with Alex Kirilloff. Turning 27 this offseason, he's never come close to playing a full major-league season, and this past one was his worst. Trying to rebound from a third consecutive offseason surgery, Kirilloff was brought along slowly in spring training, but he was on the Opening Day roster and played plenty in the early going. In the first half of April, he actually played well, slashing .291/.344/.546 through 17 games as one of the lone positive contributors on offense. He was batting third or fourth in the lineup almost daily. That's the player we've been wanting to see. From there it was all downhill. Kirilloff slashed .154/.231/.298 in the next 40 games, looking progressively less capable at the plate up until the front office decided to option him to Triple-A in mid-June. Only at that point did the first baseman reveal he'd been dealing with a back injury, compelling the Twins to reverse their option and instead place him on the injured list, where he'd remain for the rest of the year. The team was not happy, that much was clear. And why would they be? You're not going to hold it against a guy for getting hurt--with Kirilloff's history, empathy would be the most valid inclination--but failing to disclose this fact while your play and the team suffers for it ... That's going to erode some goodwill. "The communication on that, if that was something that was worsening and he was unable to play, does need to be better and something he needs to be able to bring up and say,” manager Rocco Baldelli said at the time. “He had the opportunity to do it. Hopefully, we can do that better next time.” The $1.8 million question is: Will there a be a next time? Or will the Twins take the opportunity this offseason to sever ties with the last top draft pick of the Terry Ryan regime? It would be simple enough to do so; Kirilloff is eligible for arbitration, so the front office will face a decision to actively tender him a contract or not. MLB Trade Rumors just released their projected arbitration salaries for 2025, and they've got Kirilloff pegged at $1.8 million, an understandably modest raise over his $1.35 million salary in 2024. He's no longer a minimum-salary player, but Kirilloff isn't far off. And as rough as his latest campaign was from a variety of perspectives, I think the Twins will find it extremely difficult to discard his ability and potential at that price tag. Consider this: The Twins signed a 38-year-old Carlos Santana for $5.25 million this year. He was far beyond what most people expected, and still finished with a 109 OPS+ that was in the range of average. Kirilloff has a career OPS+ of 99, despite all the tribulations he's experienced since reaching the majors. In 2023 he set a career high with 88 games played and posted a 116 OPS+, which is better than any mark Santana has posted in the past five years. Ask yourself, realistically, would you rather bring back a 39-year-old Santana over a 27-year-old Kirilloff at about three times the cost? Especially when you know how else that money could be used, in terms of adding a badly-needed reliever or bench piece? Recency bias might say yes, but the 2025 season will be a different story. In terms of pure hitting ability, I don't think there's any argument to be made that Santana at 39 is better than Kirilloff at 27. Santana is better defensively, without question, but that only goes so far at first base. Kirilloff has been through a lot. Opportunities to watch him play his game uninhibited have been few and far between over the past few seasons. But it's important not to lose sight of his talent. This is the same guy whose standout bat once earned him a ranking as a top-10 prospect in baseball, and persuaded the Twins to call him up directly from the alternate site for a postseason debut in 2020. We've seen flashes of his special contact/power combination at times, including on occasion this past season. I wouldn't say my confidence level in Kirilloff is super high at this moment, and that's probably true of the Twins as well, but it behooves them to give him another chance, given their circumstances. You're not going to be able to find a first baseman with his offensive upside on the open market and the Twins are going to need upside in the lineup where they can get it. The caveat here, I guess, is that they might be convinced the injuries are too much for Kirilloff to overcome. He underwent multiple wrist surgeries before last year hurting his shoulder and requiring surgery on that. Now he's got this back issue which seems very serious; he was down for almost three months before attempting a comeback in early September, experiencing a "flare-up" of the back soreness and being shut down for the rest of the season. Maybe the Twins just think Kirilloff's body is no longer up to the task. If so, that'd be a reasonable motivator to move on and pocket the nearly $2 million he'd earn. But they'd be better be very sure of it if that's the case, because Kirilloff finally finding his stride elsewhere next year while the Twins search for production at first base or DH would be a bitter pill to swallow. Let's hope sour grapes don't lead to a bad decision. View full article

The Minnesota Twins may have simply been ahead of the pack when it comes to shaving down payroll and adapting to the new economic landscape of Major League Baseball. What does that mean going forward? Image courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images The Twins cut their payroll by $30 million last offseason, with the uncertainty surrounding their TV deal known to be a major factor in this decision. Fans were rightfully angry, and over the weekend, ownership figurehead Joe Pohlad found himself (poorly) fielding questions about this decision and its impact on the team's outcome this season. I'm not here to defend the payroll slashing, nor the stated reasoning behind it: that a professional baseball team must necessarily be operated as a traditional business, with bottom lines treated as the top priority. But what I will say is that the Pohlads are not alone in their agenda. The reason their payroll cut last offseason was so conspicuous and widely noticed was, first and foremost, because of the horrible timing, coming off a breakthrough season and playoff run. But it's also because the Twins were first in line for something that the rest of the league is soon to experience: the realities of a bursting TV revenue bubble, with massive implications on the economics of baseball. I believe the Twins were the canaries in the coal mine. On Wednesday, Evan Drellich of The Athletic reported that Diamond Sports Group intends to scrap its agreements with all but one MLB team (Atlanta) next year. That means that 11 teams broadcasting with the Bally Sports affiliation, including nine that were under contract, would need to find a new home or renegotiate with the hated media conglomerate. Drellich later corrected his report to clarify that only two teams were formally dropped, but it sounds like Diamond is positioning itself to sever ties more broadly. Local TV revenue has long been Major League Baseball's sweet, sweet honey hole. That's because teams have been able to cash in on cable packages featuring (and charging for) their broadcasts, even from subscribers who don't watch or care about the games. The proliferation of streaming models and evolution of viewing behaviors have turned this convention on its head. The arrival of this disruptive moment is causing a lot of extraordinary things to happen. Twins ownership and their ill-advised payroll slash is one example. Another would be Bally Sports going dark out of nowhere on Comcast in the middle of last season, cutting off cable viewers for months. Zooming out, we have this prolonged and contentious legal battle playing out between Diamond and Major League Baseball, with no end in sight. Look, there are definitely some bad actors here, but everyone involved is at the mercy of forces beyond their control. The paradigm has shifted. The money no longer adds up or works in the same way it once did. It's just not going to be possible for (most) baseball teams to rake in revenue like they did for the past few decades, via an inflated and unsustainable model. Over the past couple of months, I've had conversations with some people who've been around the game for a long time, and these conversations have solidified a belief that's been stewing in my brain: MLB is headed for a reckoning. The league will figure out a broadcasting system that gives fans access to the games, and it'll still be plenty profitable, but the days of teams earning like they were accustomed to will soon be over--at least outside of mega-markets like New York. When that comes to pass, you better believe we're going to see a lot of "right-sizing" from owners across the land, who are equally frugal to the Pohlads--if not more so. Keep in mind that even with their severe reductions, the Twins still ranked 19th among MLB teams in payroll, outspending all but one AL Central team. The Twins claim they have no intentions of further cutting payroll, which is not the most uplifting news given the slashing that already took place. But if the rest of the league's spending is about to drop collectively around them, Minnesota's $130-million payroll may put them in a better relative position. And if the salaries that free agents are able to command decline precipitously (which I fear is going to be the case), the Twins front office may have a better chance to acquire impact talent with their extremely limited spending flexibility. To put it crudely: everyone else's loss can be their gain. Players and agents are going to be angry. Teams are going to get ripped off. It's going to be ugly, and frustrating. But it's been a long time coming. The bubble is on the verge of popping for the business of baseball, and Twins fans have already gotten a taste. View full article

Like I said, I lumped the whole front office under Falvey. But FWIW I think he has more influence on personnel moves than Levine. At the very least, he has final say.

The Minnesota Twins announced on Tuesday that David Popkins will not return as hitting coach in 2025. Here are a few names worth watching as they begin the process of finding his replacement. Image courtesy of Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports The Twins hired David Popkins as hitting coach after the 2021 season. At the time, he was as a 31-year-old with no experience coaching above Single-A. It's possible, and maybe even likely, that whomever the team hires as his replacement will be similarly obscure to most fans, so in a way it feels pointless to speculate about his potential successor. But then again, we've got a long offseason ahead of us. And the decision on how to move forward with this role is worthy of some discussion, given that it's very possibly the most significant leadership change we'll see made by the Twins as a result of the embarrassing collapse that took place over the past six weeks of the Twins season. The offense played a leading role in this collapse, and so Popkins takes the fall (along with assistant hitting coach Derek Shomon). For a third time in five years, the Twins are on the hunt for a new hitting coach--hopefully one who will oversee a more self-actualizing and less slump-prone offensive unit in the years ahead. Sizing up the current coaching landscape, here are a few names worth thinking about as the front office starts its search. Hensley Meulens The Curaçao native has been around the game for a long time, with a diverse track record that includes time spent playing the major leagues, Nippon Professional Baseball the KBO League. He's nearly landed manager jobs multiple times over the years, including interviewing for the Twins job that eventually went to Rocco Baldelli. In his most recent stops, Meulens served as assistant hitting coach for the Yankees in 2022 before graduating to the head hitting coach job in Colorado, which he's held for the past two years. The Rockies haven't been good offensively during that span, but it's hard to say whether that has anything to do with Meulens. Coming to Minnesota would be a lateral move, role-wise, but he might welcome the chance to join a team with contention aspirations, plus some interesting young hitting talent. If the Twins are looking to swing the opposite direction of the inexperienced young Popkins, the 57-year-old Meulens would make a lot of sense. Johnny Washington Named by FanGraphs as an up-and-comer in a recent piece highlighting potential managerial candidates, Washington just wrapped up his first year as hitting coach for the Los Angeles Angels. Previously he was assistant hitting coach for the Cubs, and before that, a hitting coach for the KBO League's Hanwha Eagles. Clearly multiple teams like what they're seeing in the way he works with hitters. "Some of [the Cubs'] best hitters over the past couple of years have credited Washington with helping to improve their games," wrote Sam Blum in an article for The Athletic last December after the Halos hired Washington. As with Meulens, coming to the Twins would represent a lateral move for Washington, but a chance to escape from a cellar-dwelling organization and perhaps make his name with some visible successes. One thing that seems clear is that any incoming hitting coach will have a chance to look really good if a few of Minnesota's talented young hitters can rebound. One interesting thing to note about Washington is that he was originally hired as a coach by the Dodgers, and in 2014 was a coach for the same Great Lakes Loons team that Popkins was hired from by the Twins. Dillon Lawson Lawson was hitting coach for the Yankees up until they let him go midway through last season, as their offense struggled to get going in the first half. At the time, I wrote about the parallels between Lawson and Popkins: both hired by their respective teams around the same time, young, with no experience playing or coaching in the major leagues. Both were also students of analytics, espousing similar philosophies. If the Twins feel that they were on the right track fundamentally with the Popkins hire, but maybe he was just wasn't exactly the right guy, then Lawson could be someone of interest as an alternative of the same ilk. He's currently a hitting coordinator in the Red Sox system and might jump at the opportunity to step back into a top big-league job. Nelson Cruz After retiring last offseason, Cruz was named in May as a consultant to MLB in a new role as Special Advisor for Baseball Operations. I hope he's enjoying the gig. But if he wants to get back into the game at the ground level, he'd be an interesting fit as hitting coach for the Twins, for whom he was a cherished fixture and leader from 2019 through half of 2021. He obviously lacks formal coaching experience, so freshly removed from his playing days, but Cruz has the advantage of a peer-like presence, able to connect with players in unique ways. He famously had a mentor-like vibe during his seasons with the Twins. Notably, Cruz was well known for the way he maintained and managed his body, enabling him to keep producing at an elite level into his 40s. For a lineup that roundly ran out of gas and broke down late in the 2024 season, it's easy to see how that particular quality might be appealing. Let's here your thoughts and ideas! Do any of these names appeal to you? Is there anyone else out there you'd like to see the Twins pursue in their search for a new hitting coach? View full article

From the players to the coaches to the front office to ownership, we're assigning letter grades to the performance of everyone who played a role in the 2024 Twins season. Today we wrap up the three-part series with a more subjective look at coaches and execs. Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports Because so many people, on and off the field, contributed to the rise and fall of these 2024 Twins, I wanted to expand the scope of this review beyond just players, grading out the performances of coaches and executives as well. Needless to say, much of this analysis is unscientific and in some cases mainly vibes-based. (For more objective, evidence-based grading of players, check out the hitters and pitchers installments.) Rocco Baldelli: D For the most part I felt criticism of Baldelli's decision-making was overblown, often coming in hindsight and misdirected from player failure. But it's hard to let a manager off the hook for getting bitten as many times as he did, while adhering too tightly to stubborn tendencies. Team morale also went into the tank under Baldelli's watch in September, for which he bears some blame. At the same time, he does get a measure of credit for overseeing a great deal of winning up until the bottom fell out. Derek Falvey: C- Falvey serves as figurehead for the front office as a whole in this exercise. I'm a little split on how to grade them. On the one hand, they built a team that was capable of being one of the best in the league, and was for a prolonged period. Falvey's pitching pipeline, in particular, paid off nicely with arrivals from David Festa and Zebby Matthews, who threw some decent innings at times. On the other hand, the front office's abject failures in the bullpen, both during the offseason and at the trade deadline, played a pivotal role in kneecapping the team. Given the ownership-imposed payroll constraints Falvey and front office had pressed upon them, I'll land at "below average." Pete Maki: D The pitching coach wasn't given much to work with in a season where the front office did nothing to offset their losses in the rotation or bullpen. The solid work from some young starting pitchers, as well as a relief breakthrough from Cole Sands, were among his accomplishments. But overall, Twins pitching was not good, and the offseason acquisitions – who Maki presumably had a role in picking – all flopped. The number of absolute blow-up meltdowns that took place from both starters and relievers doesn't reflect well on coaching or planning. Joe Pohlad: F Front man for the most maligned ownership group this side of Oakland. Show up or sell the team. David Popkins: D Much like with Maki, you don't have to look too hard to find positives within the work done by Minnesota's hitting instructor group, led by Popkins. This was one of the most potent offenses in the league for a good stretch of the season, ranking third in wRC+ from May through July. But the entire lineup felt into a collective, inescapable slump for the final six weeks and no one on the coaching staff could seem to do a thing to help any of them solve it. The Twins announced on Tuesday that Popkins won't return as hitting coach in 2025. Dave St. Peter: F As team president, St. Peter is the head man in charge of the Minnesota Twins brand, and their relationship with their customers. Hard to imagine how the brand could have been mangled worse over the course of the year, from tone-deaf messaging to a monumentally botched TV situation. View full article

From the players to the coaches to the front office to ownership, we're assigning letter grades to the performance of everyone who played a role in the 2024 Twins season. Today, we look at the pitchers. Image courtesy of Matt Krohn-Imagn Images Sixteen different pitchers threw at least 25 innings for the Twins this season. Here, I assign them all letter grades and review their seasons, in alphabetical order. (Yesterday I graded the hitters on the 2024 Twins.) Jorge Alcalá: C+ Alcalá was one of the best stories of the first half, rebounding from a lost year to post a 1.56 ERA through the All-Star break. But he, like the team, unraveled in the final two months, to the point where he was sent to Triple-A for a spell in September as the Twins grasped for life. Despite his helpful early contributions and a 3.24 overall ERA, it's hard to view Alcalá's season as a success. Jhoan Durán: B He wasn't quite the Durán we were used to, missing a few ticks from his (still elite) velocity and lapsing at a few inopportune moments – as illustrated by his nine losses. But the big righty was still very good. To the extent he struggled, it was mostly attributable to bad luck. He pitched well and even if 99-100 MPH is his new norm, there's no reason to think he can't remain a top-tier closer. David Festa: B Festa carved up Triple-A hitters in the first half before joining the Twins to deliver an impressive, and crucial, 64 ⅓ innings over 14 appearances as a rookie. His strikeout stuff very much played in the majors (10.8 K/9) and his command of the strike zone was surprisingly decent, given his rep for being a little wild. He's got the makings of a mid-rotation or even front-of-rotation starter if he can keep firing strikes at a decent clip. Kody Funderburk: F A tough season for Funderburk after he showed promise in 2023 as a rookie. He posted a 6.49 ERA in 34 ⅔ innings, struggling with control and contact. He missed almost the entire second half with an oblique injury, returning for one final meltdown outing in late September to punctuate a trying campaign. Jay Jackson: F The free agent signing could have hardly flopped worse, posting a 7.52 ERA with seven homers allowed in 26 innings. He was out of the organization by midseason. Griffin Jax: A Finally reaching his fully realized form, Jax was one of the best and most dominant relievers in the American League, blowing hitters away with his gravity-bending sweeper. The only thing keeping him from an A+ is that one of his few poor outings happened to be a devastating one – allowing the go-ahead home run against Cleveland to open a September road trip that effectively sunk the team's season. Pablo López: C+ For a midseason stretch, López looked like the ace we know he can be, but he had an ERA over five at the All-Star break and he totally bombed in his biggest start of the season at Fenway in September. The righty's expected stats paint a more favorable picture, but what happened on the field is what counts and López's final results were disappointingly ordinary. Zebby Matthews: C+ He posted a 6.69 ERA and 5.71 FIP in nine major-league starts. Those are obviously not good numbers. But we need to zoom out and look at Matthews' season as a whole: He started in Single-A, rocketed through the minors, and delivered some much-needed innings for the Twins late in the season. While his overall numbers in the majors were inflated by a few major clunkers, the 24-year-old allowed allowed two or fewer earned runs in six of eight starts, posting a very good 38-to-8 K/BB ratio. Bailey Ober: B In many ways, Ober took the big stride forward that many optimists (like myself) were envisioning before the season. He set a career high in innings and was, for long stretches, almost unhittable. But his propensity for getting absolutely crushed on occasion, and losing games single-handedly, ended up as a significant mark against him, leaving his overall numbers just barely above average. Steven Okert: F Another bullpen bust, Okert posted a 5.09 ERA, including 8.79 in his last 20 appearances before being designated for assignment in August. Chris Paddack: D There were a few flashes of excellence in his return from Tommy John surgery, but Paddack was largely mediocre as he once again dealt with arm issues that kept him under 90 innings pitched on the season. Joe Ryan: B Ryan pitched like a frontline starter and borderline All-Star for four months before going down with a season-ending injury in early August. He still gave up a few more homers than you'd like, but Ryan was mostly outstanding, tallying six times as many strikeouts as walks with a WHIP under one. Cole Sands: A In one of the season's most pleasant surprises, Sands excelled in a full-time bullpen role from front to back, earning his way into one of the club's highest-leverage roles and consistently getting the job done. Caleb Thielbar: D He missed the first two weeks with an injury, gave up three runs in his first appearance of the season, and never really recovered en route to a 5.32 ERA as part of a leaky bullpen. Thielbar posted his lowest strikeout rate in four years, allowing 50 hits and 24 walks in 47 innings. This might be the end of the line for him. Louie Varland: F There were glimmers of promise, especially during his late stint in the bullpen. Still, Varland finished with a 7.61 ERA and 12 home runs allowed in 50 innings, and he also had a 4.75 ERA in Triple-A. Tough to put much of a positive spin on those results. Simeon Woods Richardson: B When Anthony DiSclafano went down before the season began, and Paddack went down early, Woods Richardson provided a crucial depth charge, pitching very well for several months before running out of gas in September. View full article

From the players to the coaches to the front office to ownership, we're assigning letter grades to the performance of everyone who played a role in the 2024 Twins season. Today, we start with the hitters. Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-Imagn Images Well, that was a baseball season. I'd say it was one to forget but sadly this epic disaster of a second half will not likely be leaving our memories any time soon. Now that all 162 games are in the books, it's time to reflect and evaluate the individual contributors. We'll start today with the hitters. Seventeen different players made at least 50 plate appearances for the Twins. Here I assign them all letter grades, in alphabetical order. Byron Buxton: B It got lost in the in the fact that he once again was sidelined by multiple injuries, but this was a big bounce-back year for Buxton. He reached 100 games played for just the second time in his career, and posted All-Star caliber production while on the field. Still, he did miss about two months of action, and showed some signs of diminishing athleticism at age 30. Willi Castro: B Castro made his first All-Star team and led Minnesota in games played, setting a new MLB standard for positional flexibility (and a franchise record for HBP!). His durability and versatility made him an indispensable asset for the manager. Those positives solidly outweighed his power outage in the second half, although that did hurt. Carlos Correa: B On a rate basis, Correa would be graded an A or even an A+. He was hugely impactful while on the field, hitting as well as he ever has while playing stellar defense. Unfortunately, another bout with plantar fasciitis cost him nearly the entire second half, and his absence played a big part in the team's downfall. Kyle Farmer: D For most of the season, Farmer was about as bad as a player could possibly be. But he surged enough toward the end to bring his numbers back into the range of respectability, and to his credit, he did it at a time where the rest of the offense was in hell. Still, on balance, a poor campaign. Ryan Jeffers: C Jeffers failed to back up his stellar 2023 season, experiencing a major offensive backslide after starting strong in April. He completely disappeared in September. Jeffers was still an average MLB hitter and launched 21 home runs; that does have quite a bit of value for a catcher. But his defense behind the plate was generally pretty rough. Edouard Julien: F It's tough to shine any kind of positive light on Julien's year. He struggled in the majors, went to Triple-A, failed to dominate minor-league pitching, and then got called back up only out of roster necessity. Julien was so uninspiring in his second stint that, by season's end, he was mostly sitting even against right-handed pitchers. Max Kepler: D A sad end to Kepler's lengthy Twins career. Battling a sore knee for much of the season, Kepler produced a career-worst 91 OPS+ while also showing decline defensively in right field, and he missed all of September. Alex Kirilloff: F He had a solid first couple of weeks, then went into a prolonged tailspin, and revealed only after being optioned to the minors that he'd been playing through injury – to the team's detriment. He didn't appear in a game after June 11th, batting .201 on the season. Trevor Larnach: B+ Larnach was one of the few unclouded bright spots of the 2024 Twins. Putting several years of underwhelming, injury-impacted performance behind him, Larnach played in 112 games and was usually in one of the lineup's money spots against righties while producing at a well above-average rate (115 OPS+). Brooks Lee: D Ranked as one of the best prospects in baseball, fresh off torching Triple-A, Lee arrived on the big-league scene with a splash, batting .458 in his first six games. From that point forward he batted .182 with a .500 OPS in 44 games, showing minimal ability to drive the ball despite a contact-heavy approach. Better days are ahead for the 23-year-old. Royce Lewis: C Through his first 40 games, Lewis slashed .279/.356/.664 with 15 home runs, looking the part of an elite slugger. In his last 42, he slashed .191/.236/.256 with one home run as the team nosedived. On balance, his production was still certainly better than average, but he again missed tons of time with injury and his defense regressed noticeably. Austin Martin: D+ Martin played more than expected, and probably more than he earned, but his ability to handle center field somewhat competently kept him on the roster for much of the season, and his speed was an asset on a team that had almost none. But Martin was a punchless hitter, and not particularly sharp at any of the defensive positions he played. Manuel Margot: F His modestly good numbers against left-handed starters were not enough to offset his general lack of production, his shoddy defense, and his almost inconceivable ineptitude as a pinch-hitter. One of the more annoying Twins players to watch in memory. Jose Miranda: D+ What a weird season for Miranda, whose hot hitting in June and July – including an MLB record-tying string of 12 straight at-bats with a hit – gave way to a .543 OPS with no homers in the second half, during which he may have never been healthy. He again looked poor defensively at third and first. Carlos Santana: B The veteran first baseman proved to be an excellent addition in the context of his modest price tag, delivering a number of clutch hits while leading the team in home runs and providing defense worthy of a Gold Glove. A .748 OPS from a first baseman is ultimately nothing to write home about, but Santana was a quality contributor all-around. Christian Vázquez: D To his credit, Vázquez rated well defensively again, but rather than rebounding from a horrendous season at the plate in 2023, he was somehow even worse offensively, ranking among the worst hitters in the league. Even for a role with low offensive standards, Vázquez came up well short of expectations for a second straight season. Matt Wallner: B+ He stumbled badly out of the gates and spent most of the first half in Triple-A as a result, but after returning from the minors, Wallner was the team's most productive player for the remainder of the season, blasting 13 homers with a nearly .900 OPS in 75 games. View full article

The final week proved a fitting conclusion to a season that will forever be remembered as a travesty. Rather than make a last stand, the Twins laid down at home and accepted the inevitable before dejected crowds. Now we're all left to wonder where we go from here, following a fumbled opportunity for the ages. Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-Imagn Images Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 9/23 through Sun, 9/29 *** Record Last Week: 1-5 (Overall: 82-80) Run Differential Last Week: -16 (Overall: +7) AL Standing: 4th Place in AL Central (10.5 GB) Game 157 | MIA 4, MIN 1: Ober Flops, Lineup Bows to Lowly Marlins Game 158 | MIN 8, MIA 3: Offense Finds Life for First Time in Weeks Game 159 | MIA 8, MIN 6: Last Hopes Flicker Away in Hideous Loss Game 160 | BAL 7, MIN 2: Twins Eliminated from Playoff Contention Game 161 | BAL 9, MIN 2: Orioles Showcase Superiority in Rout Game 162 | BAL 6, MIN 2: Season Ends on Another Flat Note IF YOU'D RATHER LISTEN TO THE WEEK IN REVIEW THAN READ IT, YOU CAN NOW FIND IT IN PODCAST FORM. GET THE LATEST EPISODE HERE. ALSO AVAILABLE ON APPLE AND SPOTIFY. NEWS & NOTES There were a smattering of moves in the final week of the season, so let's run through them quickly before we dive into the game action: Matt Wallner (oblique), Trevor Larnach (hamstring) and José Miranda (back) all finished the season on the injured list. Replacing them on the roster for the final days: Austin Martin, DaShawn Keirsey Jr. and Michael Helman. Wallner suffered his injury on a check-swing in Tuesday's game; Larnach and Miranda have been fighting through physical issues for much of the season. Cole Irvin was swapped out for Jorge Alcalá, reversing the move that transpired earlier in the month when Alcalá was optioned to the minors to make room for the waiver claim. Supposedly acquired to provide "length" in the bullpen, Irvin averaged less than one inning pitched in his four appearances as a Twin, which included a devastating implosion in Boston that helped extinguish the team's hopes. Meanwhile, after being sent down, Alcalá threw 5 ⅔ scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts, one walk, and two hits allowed between Triple-A and the majors. Bizarre. Justin Topa was finally activated after missing nearly the entire season, just in time to pitch in a meaningless stretch of games at season's end. To his credit, he made three scoreless appearances. Topa remains under team control next year at age 34. Kody Funderburk returned from a long IL stint, made one brutal appearance against Baltimore (1 IP, 4 ER) and then got sent down to finish his season in the minors. Diego Castillo was recalled to replace him, then swapped out (from the active and 40-man rosters) for Randy Dobnak on the final day of the season. HIGHLIGHTS You've got to respect Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton for the efforts they made to come back and try to salvage this season. There's no doubt that playing without their two most valuable players for most of the second half played a major role in the team's collapse, but these hobbled stars tried their best to make good in the latter half of September. It just wasn't enough. Correa went 6-for-16 with two doubles and a home run last week, lifting his OPS to .960 in 11 games after coming off the injured list. Buxton went 7-for-18 with three doubles and a home run while surpassing the 100 games played threshold for just the second time in his career. Enthusiasm will understandably be tempered because they missed so much time, but Correa and Buxton both had good seasons overall and were well worth their contracts when on the field. There's obviously reason for ongoing concern about the future health outlooks for both, but the fact that each player was able to make it back and produce at season's end feels like one of the few positives we can net from the wreckage of this wretched second half. LOWLIGHTS In the season's final week, the Twins looked like a team with no fight left to give. Boxed into a corner and essentially needing to win out to have a chance, they opened up on Tuesday by quickly digging a 4-0 hole against the lowly Marlins behind Bailey Ober, who – like Pablo López two days earlier – decided to lay an egg at the most inopportune of moments. Per usual, the offense was unable to mount any kind of comeback, stranding 10 base runners while going 1-for-9 in scoring position on the way to a dreary 4-1 loss that was never in doubt. Two days later, already on the brink of elimination, the Twins put forth perhaps their most pitiful performance of the entire season – a noteworthy accomplishment – falling 8-6 after 13 innings in a game full of little-league mistakes and extraordinary lapses in execution. Even play-by-play man Cory Provus couldn't mask his exasperation watching Carlos Santana get doubled off at second base after Ryan Jeffers popped up a bunt attempt in extra innings. With the season coming to a brutal end, it would have been nice to at least see a few players other than Correa and Buxton finish on positive notes. Unfortunately that wasn't the case. Wallner, Larnach, Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack and Brock Stewart all ended the year on the injured list. Those who remained look like the walking dead. Miranda was among those who finished on the IL, but went 0-for-3 in his one game last week before being shut down, concluding his season on an 0-for-20 slump. After returning from the injured list in late July, he slashed .212/.242/.301 with zero home runs. His .237 wOBA over this span was worse than all but two qualified MLB hitters. It's dubious whether Miranda was ever fully healthy after his back soreness sprouted up around the All-Star break, but regardless, his massive drop-off in the second half puts him back on the fringe of Minnesota's plans going forward. Neither of the team's catchers are likely to move on from the team's plans this offseason, but Jeffers and Christian Vázquez did little to inspire confidence going forward. Although Jeffers hit a meaningless home run – his first in more than a month – he went 3-for-16 otherwise during a week in which he once again looked rough defensively. Vázquez was 0-for-9 in his three starts, closing out his season with a .575 OPS. These two deserve props for their durability this season, but little else. Manuel Margot went 3-for-14 as Twins fans look forward to putting his terrible tenure behind them. Brooks Lee batted .178 with two walks in 75 September plate appearances. Edouard Julien, mostly relegated to the bench, went 0-for-4 on Sunday to lower his final average below the Mendoza line (.199). Willi Castro's second-half slide was punctuated by a 4-for-19 week. Poor showings up and down the lineup. But the banner story of this post-break offensive collapse for the Twins, and the one we'll need to reckon with most during the offseason, is the disappearance of Royce Lewis. The ascendant start to Lewis's career came to a crashing halt right around the time he proclaimed he "doesn't do the slump thing," seemingly throwing the baseball gods into a fury. Since the All-Star break he's been not just a bad hitter, but one of the worst regulars in all of baseball; among 111 players with 200-plus plate appearances in the second half, his .276 wOBA is ninth-worst. He's been a replacement-level player during this span, per FanGraphs. Rather than rallying to close the season, Lewis went out with a whimper, finishing 1-for-23 in the final week. He admitted during the second half that he was grinding physically, but he was healthy enough to play so that excuse falls somewhat flat. We're now left to wonder how much of his steep decline is attributable to durability and wear, and how much of it owes to opposing pitchers figuring out his game and stymying him. At his best Lewis has never been a truly disciplined hitter. Either way, Royce has a lot of work to do during the offseason, because if the Twins are going to turn things around and get back on track as a franchise following this staggering setback, they're going to need Lewis to be at least some approximation of the star player we saw in the first 100 games or so of his career. TRENDING STORYLINE As the Twins turn their attention toward the offseason, we'll see how the franchise works to address its current woeful state. The club announced on Sunday that both manager Rocco Baldelli and chief exec Derek Falvey will be back next year, which isn't necessarily surprising, nor a bad thing. It will be interesting to see what happens around and below those two on the organizational charts. What of general manager Thad Levine, whose job security was conspicuously not verified? Among coaches, David Popkins and his hitting staff would seem to be at risk after the Twins fell into an unending team-wide offensive funk that sunk their season. Could the team seek a new voice to accompany Baldelli as bench coach? More importantly, there are significant roster-building challenges ahead, presuming these "right-sized" payroll parameters are here to stay. Among the numerous escalating salaries on the books for 2025 is that of Pablo López, who will go from making $8 million this year to $22 million next year. That's a perfectly reasonable price for a prime-aged frontline starter like him, but Falvey and the front office will find it difficult to work around as they try to improve the roster with almost zero flexibility. (They're already butting up against the $130M payroll they ran this year in terms of current commitments for 2025.) With so many of their other top players either hobbled by injury or mired in regression. López is one of the few who actually boasts significant trade value. Hopefully those aren't the kinds of decisions and sacrifices this front office is forced to weigh. Hopefully the organization's leadership sees the light after witnessing the sparsely attended funeral that took place at their beautiful ballpark this past week. This Twins team still has plenty of potential, and there were no shortage of encouraging signs to be found within this tough season. But what we just watched over the past six weeks makes clear that some key changes and some meaningful investments are needed to prevent this from becoming their new norm. That wraps up another year of the Week in Review. We've been running these weekly recaps every Sunday night all season, and whether you've been following along all year or this is your first time, we thank you for reading or listening. As always, you're invited to let us know what you liked and what we could do better. We'll see you next spring. View full article

These kinds of comments are confusing to me because, like, no computer would advise using Cole Irvin in that situation. It was a statistically horrible move.

It was a week full of blown leads and blowout losses for the Minnesota Twins. Rather than rise to the occasion on this crucial road trip, they melted into a puddle under the bright lights at Progressive Field and Fenway. Now, the Twins find themselves on the outside of the playoff picture, looking in, needing a very favorable final week to prevent this catastrophic collapse from reaching fruition. Image courtesy of David Richard-Imagn Images Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 9/16 through Sun, 9/22 *** Record Last Week: 2-5 (Overall: 81-75) Run Differential Last Week: -11 (Overall: +23) AL Standing: 4th Place in AL Central (8.5 GB) WC Standing: 1.0 GB KC & DET Game 150 | CLE 4, MIN 3: Offense Can't Pad Lead, Jax Gives It Up Late Game 151 | MIN 4, CLE 1: Twins Fend Off Comeback in Stressful Victory Game 152 | CLE 5, MIN 4: Bats and Bullpen Waste Another Great Start Game 153 | CLE 3, MIN 2: Another Lifeless Performance, Loss in Extras Game 154 | MIN 4, BOS 2: Twins Outlast Red Sox in 12-Inning Marathon Game 155 | BOS 8, MIN 1: Casas Clubs Three Homers, Lineup Flatlines Game 156 | BOS 9, MIN 3: Soft Underbelly of Bullpen Sliced Open Again IF YOU'D RATHER LISTEN TO THE WEEK IN REVIEW THAN READ IT, YOU CAN NOW FIND IT IN PODCAST FORM. GET THE LATEST EPISODE HERE. ALSO AVAILABLE ON APPLE AND SPOTIFY. NEWS & NOTES In a surprising late-season move, the Twins optioned reliever Jorge Alcalá to the minor leagues on Tuesday, sending one of their most oft-used relievers to finish out his campaign away from the big-league club. The demotion made room on the active roster for left-hander Cole Irvin, who was claimed off waivers from Baltimore, with Randy Dobnak designated for assignment to open a spot on the 40-man. The Irvin pickup seemed logical enough, if underwhelming; the Twins simply need innings, and as someone who threw more than 100 this year for the Orioles, making 16 starts, Irvin can provide those. However, his usage during week one with the new team was at odds with the low-leverage billing Irvin seemed suited for. He made three appearances, all in close games, and didn't provide much length in any of them. Irvin is not eligible for the postseason roster, but that's all the same since his performance on Sunday did much to ensure the Twins won't be there. More on that later. The decision to send Alcalá down speaks volumes about the front office's eroded faith in the righty. Yes, he has pitched very poorly of late, but so have a number of Twins relievers, and Alcalá still has a 3.46 ERA overall this season, by virtue of his strong first half. Evidently, the team just gave up on him after watching him cough up eight home runs in 20 second-half appearances. After firing two scoreless innings in his final appearance with the Twins last Sunday, Alcalá joined the Saints and made two more appearances in the final week of their season, striking out four over two scoreless innings. His future with the team would seem to be in limbo, with the Twins holding a club option for 2025. The beleaguered Twins might get some reinforcements in the final week, for what it's worth. Max Kepler is expected to take live batting practice against Chris Paddack at Target Field on Monday, after which Kepler's readiness to return will be evaluated. He's been bothered by knee soreness all season. Meanwhile, Justin Topa is now rehabbing at Triple-A with an eye on getting activated into the Twins bullpen. It's possible that both he and Kepler could rejoin the team during this final upcoming home stand. If you're struggling to get enthused about that prospect I don't blame you, but both players are at least capable of high-quality play. The bullpen will take whatever help it can get at this point, but I honestly struggle to see how Kepler would fit in. HIGHLIGHTS Returning from the injured list and playing through pain for the final push, Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton are doing what they can to rejuvenate a putrid offensive unit. Correa, despite being unable to summon much power of any kind, is putting together good plate appearances and was one of the few to deliver in key spots last week. In his six starts, he notched six hits and drew six walks across 23 plate appearances. The shortstop drove in five, including all four Minnesota runs in Wednesday's 5-4 loss to Cleveland. Correa is up over 4.0 fWAR on the season, which is remarkable for a guy who has played about half the team's games. Buxton was less effective, finishing 6-for-26 with one double on the week, but he still represented an all-around improvement over what the Twins have been getting from center field in his absence. It's inspiring to see him battle through clear discomfort while tracking down balls in the outfield and hustling on the bases. Buxton even stole a bag. If he plays at least two more games in the final week, Buck will reach the 100 mark for the second time in his career. The pitching staff was going along decently until the wheels fell off during Sunday's doubleheader at Fenway. Unfortunately, one strong outing after another from the Twins rotation went to waste as the offense failed to make hay and the bullpen repeatedly broke down. Pablo López allowed two runs over 6 ⅓ innings on Monday. The Twins lost. Bailey Ober struck out 12 over seven innings of two-run ball on Wednesday. The Twins lost. Simeon Woods Richardson held the Guardians to one run in 4 ⅔ frames on Thursday. Another loss. In the nightcap on Sunday, Zebby Matthews exited after throwing 4 ⅔ scoreless innings, and wouldn't you know it: the Twins lost. I'm getting a little off track for what is supposed to be the positive section of the recap, I realize, but my point is: the rotation has been pretty dang good. That's something you can hang your hat on amidst all the ugliness that has enveloped this ball club. And all of these starters will be back next year, plus hopefully Joe Ryan. The bullpen, meanwhile, had some big highs and some big lows. Friday's game at Fenway should not get lost in all the garbage that surrounded it: probably the best all-around bullpen performance of the year for the Twins, and maybe the best pitching performance period. David Festa combined with the entire relief staff to navigate a 12-inning odyssey, keeping the team alive as the offense failed twice to score the runner from second in extras before finally breaking through in the 12th. Minnesota's pitchers totaled 20 strikeouts in the affair. LOWLIGHTS To be sure, the bullpen owns a fair amount of blame for the debacle in Cleveland, which saw the Twins blow late-game leads three times in four games. As good as he's been generally, Griffin Jax's outing on Monday – coughing up a leadoff double to Josh Naylor and then go-ahead two-run homer to Kyle Manzardo in the bottom of the eighth – was one of the season's most devastating. On Wednesday, Ronny Henriquez gave up three runs while recording just one out, after being asked to protect a two-run lead in the 10th. One day later, Caleb Thielbar wasted no time in letting the winning run score in yet another 10th-inning walk-off. But extraordinary asks are being made of these relievers. Why does Jax have so little margin for error, almost at all times? Why couldn't the Twins come up with any offense on Thursday, forcing the bullpen to walk a tightrope inning after inning before Thielbar finally gave up an unearned run? Why was Henriquez being asked to pitch in the situation he was on Wednesday at all?? Having said all that, what transpired in the final game of the week took 'pitchers being pushed beyond their means' to a whole new level. In the bottom of the fifth, just after the Twins had finally managed to scratch across a couple of runs for a 2-0 lead, Matthews gave up a two-out double to Boston's No. 9 hitter, Ceddanne Rafaela. With the rookie at 87 pitches and the lineup turning over for a second time, Rocco Baldelli decided to go to the bullpen, relatively fresh following a day off on Saturday and a blowout loss in the earlier game. Plus another day off on Monday. Pulling Matthews made sense, if utilizing the strength of a replenished bullpen was the plan. But the pitcher that Baldelli decided to call upon was Cole Irvin. In a game that the Twins absolutely had to have, with the season on the line, they turned to a scrap heap waiver pickup who'd been with the team for less than a week. And they got exactly what they should have expected. Facing the top of Boston's lineup, an overmatched Irvin quickly blew the lead before getting an out, then inexplicably went out to start the next inning, putting on two runners who also came around to score. By the time Minnesota's superior left-handed reliever, Thielbar, actually got into the game, the Twins were down six runs. In general, I find Baldelli's decision-making as manager defensible at least, if not strategically astute. And I empathize with the hand he's been dealt: a pitching staff running on fumes, stretched thin, pushing through an endless gauntlet of close contests. Still, this one was totally lost on me. What are we doing here. Then again, the baffling managerial decision and avalanche of runs allowed by Twins pitchers on Sunday didn't really end up mattering all that much, because true to form, the offense couldn't produce a lick. And that is where the primary blame squarely falls for this September spiral. When you score 21 runs over 68 innings, as the Twins did last week, you're going to struggle to win games. The presence of Buxton and Correa has done little to animate a lifeless lineup. The lack of output against Cleveland's high-end staff, and especially their super-elite bullpen, was understandable to a degree. Boston should've been a breath fresh air but instead the lineup continued to suffocate, even with Correa, Buxton and Lewis starting all three games. In the early end Sunday's doubleheader, the Twins ran out basically their A lineup against mediocre starter Nick Pivetta and scored one run, on an error. Pivetta cruised through five innings and then Minnesota got no-hit for the final four innings by one of the worst bullpens in baseball. For a long stretch of the season this was one of the most powerful and imposing offenses in the league, ranking third among MLB teams in slugging percentage during the first half. But the Twins were a far cry on this road trip, managing just one home run and nine total extra-base hits in seven games while stranding endless runners on base. Plenty of players contributed to this increasingly miserable drought in production. Royce Lewis remains one of the biggest second-half drags on the lineup, and he continued to be a non-factor last week with five singles and a double in 25 at-bats. He's driven in just two runs in his past 18 games. Carlos Santana, as clutch as he's been for most of the year, went silent in this key moment, managing just three singles and one walk in 30 plate appearances. Brooks Lee and José Miranda continue to be black holes at the plate, combining to go 0-for-19. Manuel Margot managed a pair of doubles but was otherwise 0-for-12, including a pair of hitless pinch-hit appearances that gave him the standalone all-time record. The Twins also got next to nothing from the catcher position, with Christian Vázquez and Ryan Jeffers going 4-for-31 with 11 strikeouts, turning in poor AB after poor AB. The unraveling of Jeffers, in particular, has been deflating given how much the team counts on his bat, especially against left-handers. He's batting .153 in September and hasn't homered in over a month. It's hard to comprehend what we're seeing, honestly. The front office, manager and ownership can all fairly be criticized for their roles in the pitching staff's shortcomings, but this offense was built for success, and enjoyed plenty of it. Then, they just ... totally died out. I don't take this ongoing mega-slump as a sign that the team doesn't care, or that the players are quitting, but clearly something is systematically wrong with this baseball team. The fire that fueled the Twins throughout most of the summer, when they excelled as one of the league's best teams, has been completely extinguished. Watching different players take turns flopping and failing on the field, over and over again, has been incredibly painful to watch. No one can seem to step up and lift this group – not even a hobbled Correa who's doing all he can. Unless they can manage to right the ship very quickly, in a major way, this will go down as one of the biggest collapses in recent MLB history. But the good news is this: there's still time for the 2024 Twins to avoid going down in history with this ignominious distinction. TRENDING STORYLINE It's a race to the finish line between three AL Central teams, with Seattle hanging on the fringe of this wild-card race and looking to leapfrog two of them. The surging Tigers have moved into a tie with the free-falling Royals, with both teams now one game ahead of Minnesota in the standings. The Mariners, meanwhile, are one game behind the Twins, two games behind Detroit and KC, needing something of a miracle in the final week to get in. The Twins have the advantage of a tiebreaker against all of these teams, so they need to merely finish with the same record or better than two of them. While Minnesota hosts the Marlins and Orioles in the final week of the season, the Royals are set to travel to Washington and Atlanta, and the Tigers host the Rays and White Sox. Passing up Kansas City might actually be the most realistic path at this point. But it's all moot if the Twins can't score some runs and win some games. It's going to be a stressful week of scoreboard-watching and tremendously consequential baseball with everything on the line. Giddy up? LOOKING AHEAD The lagging Twins offense has an opportunity to finish strong at home, with a fairly appealing slate of pitching match-ups on the docket in this decisive final week of the season. The Marlins have one of the league's worst pitching staffs and are scheduled to throw three unexceptional starters at Target Field. The Baltimore series will present more of a challenge, but as things stand the Twins are on track to avoid Corbin Burnes. TUESDAY, SEPT 24: MARLINS @ TWINS – LHP Ryan Weathers v. RHP Bailey Ober WEDNESDAY, SEPT 25: MARLINS @ TWINS – RHP Edward Cabrera v. RHP Simeon Woods Richardson THURSDAY, SEPT 26: MARLINS @ TWINS – RHP Valente Bellozo v. RHP David Festa FRIDAY, SEPT 27: ORIOLES @ TWINS – LHP Cade Povich v. RHP Pablo Lopez SATURDAY, SEPT 28: ORIOLES @ TWINS – RHP Albert Suarez v. RHP Zebby Matthews SUNDAY, SEPT 29: ORIOLES @ TWINS – RHP Dean Kremer v. RHP Bailey Ober View full article

Fresh off a 3-3 home stand, the Minnesota Twins are heading out on a seven-game road trip that figures to have massive implications for their fate. They'll have their work cut out for them as they try to hang on for their postseason lives. Buckle up and get ready with this primer. Image courtesy of Ken Blaze, Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images The Twins are in Cleveland this week for four games against the division-leading Guardians and then off to Boston for three against the Red Sox, who are 4 ½ games behind Minnesota in pursuit of the third and final wild-card spot. Neither of these series will carry the weight or magnitude we once thought they might. The Twins have fallen 6 ½ games behind the Guardians in the Central, so overcoming Cleveland for a division title is no longer really in play, even with a sweep. Meanwhile, Boston is almost hopelessly out of postseason contention, with FanGraphs giving them less than a 3% chance to get in. Still, these are going to be very, very important games for all parties involved. There are plenty of interesting stories and subplots to follow as we look ahead to some of the highest-leverage regular-season baseball you'll encounter. Here are some that I'll be keeping an eye on. The Battle for the Number One Seed The Guardians and Yankees are neck-and-neck for the top seed in the American League, with New York currently ahead by one game. That matters to those teams because with the #1 seed comes home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. It matters to the Twins because, as #6 seed, whoever finishes with the best record in the AL would fall on their side of the postseason bracket. They'd be next line if the Twins are able to get in and get past Houston. So it's a little ironic. The more the Twins beat Cleveland, the more they increase the likelihood of having go through Houston AND New York in order to reach the ALCS. The Best-Case Scenario While I'm basically treating it as a given that the Twins will be the sixth seed if they make the playoffs, there is a still a reasonable possibility of overtaking Kansas City for the second wild card. Having won seven of 13 head-to-head matchups this year, Minnesota holds the tiebreaker over the Royals, so they're effectively only two games behind KC in the standings. The difference between getting in as the second or third wild card is not terrible significant; you're going on the road for a best-of-three series either way, and I'm not sure Baltimore is all that preferable of an opponent versus Houston. But the reason I call it a best-case scenario is because, if the Twins can take three or even four against Cleveland, they'll push the Guards toward the second seed while potentially elevating toward the #5 seed themselves. That would mean the path to the ALCS goes through Baltimore and Cleveland, instead of Houston and New York. And if they were to face the Royals in the ALCS, Minnesota would get home-field advantage. The best layout you could ask for, at this juncture. Of course, in addition to the Twins getting it done in Cleveland, gaining ground requires that Kansas City lose it. As it happens, the Royals are hosting the Tigers over the next three days. So if the Twins are winning games in Cleveland and not gaining ground on Kansas City, they're creating it between themselves and Detroit. Boston's Last Gasp The Red Sox, as mentioned, are down but not out. They need to pass three teams to get into the postseason picture, but having three games lined up at home against the club atop that pecking order gives them some measure of control over their destiny. If Minnesota fares poorly against Guardians, and the Red Sox win or sweep their next series (three games at Tampa), it's possible Boston could be in position to surpass Minnesota with a sweep over the weekend. In doing so, they'd also secure a tiebreaker over the Twins, against whom the Red Sox are 1-2 so far this season. Needless to say, this version of things is pretty much the worst-case scenario for the Twins. Pablo Goes Twice In mapping out pitching probables for this road trip, the most encouraging news is that Pablo López is scheduled start twice: the first game of the Cleveland series, and the second game of the Boston series. The Twins will be able to maximize the impact of their ace in the most critical stretch of the season. And make no mistake, López has been pitching like an ace. Nine of his past 10 starts have been of the "quality" variety, During that span, which dates back to the All-Star break, he's 7-1 with a 1.93 ERA. He's pitched at least into the seventh inning in four straight turns, and lately has flashed some of the very best stuff of his career. López inspires a great of confidence right now and the Twins will have him on the mound for two of their seven games this week. Huge. Zebby's Big Test The other pitcher who is lined up to make two starts on this road trip inspires considerably less confidence, but that's not to say he isn't capable of coming through. Zebby Matthews is slated to get the nod on Tuesday and Sunday. The stakes will be extremely high and there's a level of urgency for Twins starters to pitch somewhat deep, thus lessening the bullpen's burden amid a stretch of 10 games with no break. It's a monumental ask of a 24-year-old who hadn't pitched above Single-A as of May. But Matthews has earned this opportunity through his stellar performance in the minors, and he's occasionally shown flashes during his six starts in the majors. The 27-to-5 K/BB ratio in 25 innings is undoubtedly impressive. The question is, can Matthews keep the ball in the park and hold his own after a time or two through the order? The Correa and Buxton Factors The Twins activated both Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa in recent days, giving both a bit of playing time in the weekend series against Cincinnati – likely with an eye toward being as ready as they can for this road trip. How much will they play? How effective will they be? The uncertainty surrounding the team's two best players makes it hard to know what to expect from the Twins, but their mere presence has game-changing potential. If Correa and Buxton are able to look relatively good while helping lift the Twins to some wins in Cleveland and Boston, it will not only help propel Minnesota to the playoffs, but will bode very well for their chances if they get there. Royce Returns to Progressive The slump being experienced by Royce Lewis, who has homered just once in the past month, has been a major factor in Minnesota's slide. It's been strange to watch the famed clutch performer wilt during the most critical stretch of the season, while admitting that he's drained and searching for a second wind. Maybe returning to the site of some memorable past success will serve Lewis will. He's only played three games at Progressive Field, but he's dominated in them, going 5-for-11 with one of last year's most unforgettable highlights: a grand slam off Lucas Giolito that effectively clinched the division for Minnesota. Battle of the Bullpens The top four most valuable relievers in the major leagues, according to FanGraphs and its Wins Above Replacement metric? Cade Smith, CLE (2.4) Mason Miller, OAK (2.4) Griffin Jax, MIN (2.3) Emmanuel Clase, CLE (2.1) Smith and Clase have been instrumental in Cleveland's success this year, and the same is true of Jax and the Twins. I'm eager to see these premier bullpen arms showcased here in the biggest moments of the season, in what promise to be close and competitive games. That tends to be the case when these two teams meet – all but one of their nine games this year have been decided by three runs or fewer. How are you feeling about this week's high-stakes road trip? Which storylines will you be watching most closely? Sound off in the comments! View full article

Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa made it back from the injured list, albeit in a diminished capacity. The Twins coronated their returns with two blowout losses against the Reds, but by going 3-3 on the week they mostly held their ground in the standings. The Twins remain a few games clear of missing the playoffs as they turn their attention to a potentially season-defining road trip. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 9/9 through Sun, 9/15 *** Record Last Week: 3-3 (Overall: 79-70) Run Differential Last Week: -4 (Overall: +34) AL Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (6.5 GB) Game 144 | LAA 6, MIN 2: Festa Falls Behind Early, Bats Can't Find Spark Game 145 | MIN 10, LAA 5: Offense Awakens as Dugout Sausage Returns Game 146 | MIN 6, LAA 4: Bullpen Takes Over, Holds Lead to Secure Win Game 147 | CIN 8, MIN 4: Grand Slam From Cincy Breaks Game Open Game 148 | CIN 11, MIN 1: Wheels Come Off in Deflating Blowout Loss Game 149 | MIN 9, CIN 2: Twins Come Alive, Avert Being Swept by Reds IF YOU'D RATHER LISTEN TO THE WEEK IN REVIEW THAN READ IT, YOU CAN NOW FIND IT IN PODCAST FORM. GET THE LATEST EPISODE HERE. ALSO AVAILABLE ON APPLE AND SPOTIFY. NEWS & NOTES With time running out on the season, and minor-league rehab assignments essentially out the window, the Twins activated three players directly from the injured list over the past week, throwing them into the fire as the team's season turns desperate. First up was Manuel Margot, who rejoined the roster on Wednesday after recovering from a minor groin injury, with Michael Helman going back to the minors. On Thursday, the Twins surprisingly activated Byron Buxton, swapping out Austin Martin to make room, and on Saturday they got back All-Star shortstop Carlos Correa, who bumped DaShawn Keirsey Jr. from the roster. Generally, the returns of Correa and Buxton would be viewed as huge news, and to an extent they are. But enthusiasm is tempered by the reality that these players are not fully healthy and are going to be limited, which has immediately become clear. Rocco Baldelli has been open about it, and his handling of these players already has been indicative. Buxton and Correa both started on Saturday, but were pulled in the fifth inning once it became a blowout, and neither played on Sunday. Buxton did make it through one full game, on Friday, and he hit a home run. We'll see what their availability is like over the next week with the Twins traveling and playing seven critical games in seven days. HIGHLIGHTS There have been some flashes of life from a lineup that's mostly struggled to remain above water here in September. Kyle Farmer is doing what he can, with a sudden late-season burst that has seen him launch five home runs in his past 26 games after hitting zero in the first 68. That includes a pair of bombs over the past week, during which Farmer also doubled twice and struck out only two times in 16 plate appearances. A few other players chipped in offensive highlights, including another majestic blast from Matt Wallner, who has become the featured piece in Baldelli's lineups, batting second on Friday and Saturday and then making his first career start in the leadoff spot on Sunday. Carlos Santana went 8-for-18 with two homers and six RBIs in another excellent week for the veteran. Trevor Larnach was an on-base machine with five walks and five hits in 18 plate appearances, crossing the plate seven times. In a generally rough week for the pitchers, Minnesota's two best arms shined when they had opportunities. Pablo López struck out 10 and walked one over six innings in Tuesday's win, allowing four unearned runs and lowering his ERA to 3.88 on the season – including 1.93 since the All-Star break. He's delivered nine quality starts in 10 second-half turns. Griffin Jax pitched only once all week, but it was a special moment. On September 11th, the same day his siblings piloted flyover jets and threw out the first pitch during pregame ceremonies, the Air Force captain showcased his rep as one of the best relievers in all of baseball, tossing two shutout innings and bridging a late lead to closer Jhoan Durán. It was Jax's first time completing two full frames since summer of 2022, as he lowered his ERA to 1.95. While the same can't be said about many of their teammates, López and Jax look primed and ready for a potential postseason run. Both will be called on heavily in the pivotal coming week to help get the team there. LOWLIGHTS Last week continued a trend of sudden and calamitous meltdowns from the pitching staff, which has shown a remarkable penchant for losing games within the span of a single inning. We saw it on Friday, when Jorge Alcalá relieved Bailey Ober and gave up a grand slam in a six-run seventh inning, and then again on Saturday, when Simeon Woods Richardson and Louie Varland combined to cough up nine runs in the fourth. All this against a Reds team with a 91 OPS+ that ranks 24th in the majors. The brutal outings from Alcalá and Varland are immensely concerning given how much the Twins are counting on those two specifically to add a dimension of quality depth to their bullpen beyond the top three. Since the All-Star break, Alcalá has a 6.75 ERA with eight homers allowed in 20 innings. (Although, to his credit, he did close out the week strong with two shutout frames to seal Sunday's win.) Varland now has an 8.57 ERA and 6.05 FIP with 11 homers allowed in 42 innings for the Twins this year. These aren't just unreliable options, they're bordering on unusable. Baldelli needs to be seriously weighing how much he trusts these two in key spots versus, say, journeyman Scott Blewett, who has actually looked pretty solid in a low-stakes role. While imploding pitchers have done plenty to lose games for the Twins, the offense has done little to help in its own right. Theoretically, getting Buxton and Correa back for the final push – joining a lineup that already features the likes of Royce Lewis, José Miranda and Brooks Lee – should be an ideal scenario that has everyone excited and licking their chops for the playoffs. But as discussed, Buxton and Correa will be limited, if they can stay on the field, and the young core they are augmenting has been different shades of terrible for quite a while now. Lewis did come through with a big two-run double (inches short of a grand slam) in Wednesday's win, and added two singles in Sunday's game. But he still is batting just .217 in September and has homered only once (barely) in the past month. Miranda went 1-for-12 with a single and no walks. He hasn't homered since July 5th and is slashing .230/.261/.326 in 41 games since coming off the injured list. Miranda's power has once again evaporated completely, casting renewed doubt on his future as a building block for this lineup. Lee enjoyed a nice game on Sunday, driving in five with two hits including a three-run triple that snuck down the first base line. But in his other five games he was 2-for-16, grounding into two double plays, and his OPS as a big-leaguer sits at .604 through 39 MLB games. Hopefully Sunday's game proves to be a spark of sorts, but for the most part Lee has looked pretty overmatched at the plate. Put it all together and you've got the recipe for a very low-performing offense that too often gives the team little chance of winning. Aside from a couple isolated outbursts like Tuesday and Sunday, this group just continually fails to get going and erupt. They've scored two runs or fewer in 11 of their past 22 games, and – not shockingly – they've gone 1-10 in those games. Minnesota has scored more than six runs only twice in this entire span. Over their past 25 games, dating back to August 19th, the Twins are 9-16. Among all major-league teams, only the Angels (7-18) and White Sox (5-20) have been worse. It takes a lot of contributing factors to play that badly, and plenty of culprits have had a hand in this developing collapse. The question now is whether they can stem the tide and change this dreadful course. TRENDING STORYLINE It's all on the line this coming week. Can the Twins survive this crucial road trip through Cleveland and Boston? Minnesota hasn't won a series on the road since they were in Texas a month ago. The good news, I suppose, is that the Guardians have cooled off in the second half compared to the first, and the Red Sox – despite being on the fringe of postseason contention – have been about as bad as the Twins lately. There are two weeks and 13 games remaining on the schedule. The Twins are effectively trying to run out the clock and make it to the finish line with their postseason position still intact. The math remains in their favor but the Tigers are making a hard charge with six wins in their past eight games, including an impressive series win against Baltimore over the weekend. Seattle has the same record as Detroit 2 ½ back of the Twins, and Boston has a chance to make a last gasp at Fenway next weekend. Holding tiebreakers over both the Tigers and Mariners, Minnesota is effectively at least three games clear of all these teams. With López, Jax, and some semblance of their offensive core in place, the Twins will have a shot if they can reach October. They just need to hang on and get there. It's gonna be a stressful ride from here on out. LOOKING AHEAD López is lined up to make starts in both of these keys series, which is great news for the Twins. Zebby Matthews is also scheduled to go twice, so we'll see if the rookie – owner of a 7.11 ERA through six MLB starts – can dig deep and come through under some extraordinary pressure. MONDAY, SEPT 16: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Pablo Lopez v. LHP Matthew Boyd TUESDAY, SEPT 17: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Zebby Matthews v. RHP Gavin Williams WEDNESDAY, SEPT 18: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Bailey Ober v. RHP Tanner Bibee THURSDAY, SEPT 19: TWINS @ GUARDIANS – RHP Simeon Woods Richardson v. LHP Joey Cantillo FRIDAY, SEPT 20: TWINS @ RED SOX – RHP David Festa v. RHP Brayan Bello SATURDAY, SEPT 21: TWINS @ RED SOX – RHP Pablo Lopez v. RHP Kutter Crawford SUNDAY, SEPT 22: TWINS @ RED SOX – RHP Zebby Matthews v. RHP Nick Pivetta View full article

Griffin Jax has been arguably the best reliever in the majors, definitely in the top five. I wouldn't view it as a slight to Duran. Baldelli's been using Jax in the highest-leverage situations for a long time now, in that game it just happened to map out in the ninth.