-
Posts
8,262 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
56
Content Type
Profiles
News
Minnesota Twins Videos
2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking
2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks
Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits
Guides & Resources
2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks
The Minnesota Twins Players Project
2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks
2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker
2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker
Forums
Blogs
Events
Store
Downloads
Gallery
Everything posted by Nick Nelson
-
At the start of the offseason, the Minnesota Twins lost six players to free agency. Four were position players, all of whom played relatively large roles in 2024: Max Kepler, Carlos Santana, Manuel Margot, Kyle Farmer. The two pitchers were Caleb Thielbar, an aging lefty reliever who threw 47 innings, and Anthony DeSclafani, who never threw a pitch. Since then, essentially every additive move the Twins have made has been pitching-focused. The team surprisingly tendered contracts to both Michael Tonkin and Justin Topa, more or less assuring them spots in the Opening Day bullpen if healthy. Then they added right-handers Marco Raya and Travis Adams to the 40-man roster ahead of the Rule 5 eligibility deadline. Most recently, in the aforementioned Rule 5 draft, the Twins selected Eiberson Castellano from the Phillies, their first time taking a player in seven years. Castellano is an intriguing right-handed pitcher on the verge of MLB readiness, and Minnesota is hoping it stumbled upon a steal. Of course, the stipulation is that in order to keep Castellano, he needs to remain on the active roster for the Twins all year. There's no guarantee Castellano will make the team, but the Twins wouldn't have drafted him if they didn't see it as reasonably likely. So if you pencil him into an eight-man bullpen alongside Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Cole Sands, Brock Stewart, Jorge Alcala, Topa and Tonkin, you've got a unit that is already full-up. Minnesota's 40-man roster currently features 22 pitchers and only 16 hitters. Without making any additions, they can already boast a contending rotation and relief corps deep enough that guys like David Festa, Louie Varland and Zebby Matthews are currently on the outside looking in. I will note that all 13 presently projected members of the 2025 staff are right-handed. Meanwhile, you've got an offensive unit that is full of blatant holes. Coming off a second half where their lineup completely bottomed out, the Twins lost one of their most promising hitters (Alex Kirilloff), one of their most dependable hitters (Santana) and one of their most tenured hitters (Kepler). They currently have major questions to address all over the field, if not in the starting roles then certainly with the positional depth. The front office, as we know, has negative money to address these question marks. They're clearly trying to shop Christian Vazquez to free up his $10 million salary, but that would only exacerbate their position-player shortage. How are they going to find ways to replace their losses, much less bring in any kind of help? Trading out of their quality pitching depth to acquire impact bats seems like the clear path forward. And I'm talking about something more significant than moving Chris Paddack, who is not likely to bring back a substantial return and also wouldn't clear enough room for much in the way of additions. The Twins might need to get even bolder. Would they consider something like, say, trading Joe Ryan or Bailey Ober for a quality young hitter, then transitioning Jax to a starting role? Or trying to maximize Duran's value three years away from free agency? I'm just spitballing here. But I'd have to figure these kinds of concepts are very much on the table, if not being actively pursued. It's a scary thought but also a somewhat exciting one. Good pitching is always in demand, and that's one of the few things the Twins have in their favor with their positioning this offseason.
-
The Twins have a lopsided balance of arms and bats on their roster. One way or another, it's going to need to work itself out. Image courtesy of Matt Krohn and Jeffrey Becker–Imagn Images At the start of the offseason, the Minnesota Twins lost six players to free agency. Four were position players, all of whom played relatively large roles in 2024: Max Kepler, Carlos Santana, Manuel Margot, Kyle Farmer. The two pitchers were Caleb Thielbar, an aging lefty reliever who threw 47 innings, and Anthony DeSclafani, who never threw a pitch. Since then, essentially every additive move the Twins have made has been pitching-focused. The team surprisingly tendered contracts to both Michael Tonkin and Justin Topa, more or less assuring them spots in the Opening Day bullpen if healthy. Then they added right-handers Marco Raya and Travis Adams to the 40-man roster ahead of the Rule 5 eligibility deadline. Most recently, in the aforementioned Rule 5 draft, the Twins selected Eiberson Castellano from the Phillies, their first time taking a player in seven years. Castellano is an intriguing right-handed pitcher on the verge of MLB readiness, and Minnesota is hoping it stumbled upon a steal. Of course, the stipulation is that in order to keep Castellano, he needs to remain on the active roster for the Twins all year. There's no guarantee Castellano will make the team, but the Twins wouldn't have drafted him if they didn't see it as reasonably likely. So if you pencil him into an eight-man bullpen alongside Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Cole Sands, Brock Stewart, Jorge Alcala, Topa and Tonkin, you've got a unit that is already full-up. Minnesota's 40-man roster currently features 22 pitchers and only 16 hitters. Without making any additions, they can already boast a contending rotation and relief corps deep enough that guys like David Festa, Louie Varland and Zebby Matthews are currently on the outside looking in. I will note that all 13 presently projected members of the 2025 staff are right-handed. Meanwhile, you've got an offensive unit that is full of blatant holes. Coming off a second half where their lineup completely bottomed out, the Twins lost one of their most promising hitters (Alex Kirilloff), one of their most dependable hitters (Santana) and one of their most tenured hitters (Kepler). They currently have major questions to address all over the field, if not in the starting roles then certainly with the positional depth. The front office, as we know, has negative money to address these question marks. They're clearly trying to shop Christian Vazquez to free up his $10 million salary, but that would only exacerbate their position-player shortage. How are they going to find ways to replace their losses, much less bring in any kind of help? Trading out of their quality pitching depth to acquire impact bats seems like the clear path forward. And I'm talking about something more significant than moving Chris Paddack, who is not likely to bring back a substantial return and also wouldn't clear enough room for much in the way of additions. The Twins might need to get even bolder. Would they consider something like, say, trading Joe Ryan or Bailey Ober for a quality young hitter, then transitioning Jax to a starting role? Or trying to maximize Duran's value three years away from free agency? I'm just spitballing here. But I'd have to figure these kinds of concepts are very much on the table, if not being actively pursued. It's a scary thought but also a somewhat exciting one. Good pitching is always in demand, and that's one of the few things the Twins have in their favor with their positioning this offseason. View full article
-
The Twins have been quiet so far this offseason, as expected. But other significant moves are taking place around the league, and the pace figures to pick up with the Winter Meetings getting underway this week. From the perspective of the Twins and what they're trying to accomplish this winter, what can we learn from some of the early developments and trends we've seen play out? Image courtesy of Mike De Sisti and Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images (Willy Adames and Clay Holmes) We have a pretty clear idea of what Derek Falvey, Jeremy Zoll and the Minnesota Twins front office are trying to accomplish right now. Since any potential additions are essentially contingent on clearing salary from the books and creating some spending flexibility, the Twins are looking to make a trade. Maybe more than one. While they haven't yet taken part in any significant move outside of the procedural types, there's been a fair amount of hot stove action elsewhere around the league. Let's review some of the more noteworthy moves and unpack the potential implications for the Twins in their efforts. (Moves and details courtesy of ESPN's very helpful offseason tracker.) San Francisco Giants sign SS Willy Adames for 7 years, $182M The relevance of this signing to the Twins depends on how legitimate you find the notion of a Carlos Correa trade. Adames was the big prize in the free agent shortstop market and now he's off the board. Other clubs looking to make a splash at the position will need to look elsewhere, and Correa could be an attractive target if he's willing to waive his no-trade clause. Correa is one year older than Adames and his remaining contract (four years, $128 million) looks quite reasonable relative to what San Francisco gave Adames, depending on your confidence in his health outlook. In particular, I've got my eyes on the Yankees. Last week MLB.com's ace reporter Mark Feinsand wrote that the Yanks were viewing Adames as a "backup plan" in the event they were unable to re-sign the highly coveted Juan Soto, who reached agreement with the cross-town Mets on a 15-year, $760 million deal on Sunday night. What's the Yankees' Plan B now? One month ago I wrote about speculation from NY media that the Yankees or Mets might consider reaching out to Minnesota about the availability of Correa. Personally I would not be in favor of trading Correa but it's unfortunately an option the Twins have to at least consider given their payroll circumstances. For what it's worth, Falvey has conspicuously failed to rule out the possibility when asked about it. New York Mets sign RP Clay Holmes with intentions of converting him to a starter This is a trend that is seemingly gaining traction across the league: taking an established relief pitcher and converting him to a starter, well into his career. The Padres did it successfully with Seth Lugo in 2023, setting Lugo up to land a sizable contract with Kansas City, where he's now the No. 1 starter. Elsewhere we've seen the Cardinals do it with Jordan Hicks, the Braves with Reynaldo Lopez, and the Rays with old friend Zack Littell, as a few examples. It's easy to see the appeal of this arrangement from the pitcher's perspective. Lugo was never getting the contract he got from Kansas City (three years, $45 million with an opt-out) as a relief pitcher. Same goes for Holmes and this similar deal he just got from the Mets: three years, $38 million with an opt-out. Which brings us to the subject of Griffin Jax. While not an offseason transactional move, per se, the idea of converting Jax back into a starter has definitely been a talking point. Seeing this approach increasingly utilized across the league lends further credence to the concept. At the same time, it does bear mentioning that none of the names we mentioned – Holmes, Lugo, etc. – had a case for being one of the two or three best relief pitchers in all of baseball, as Jax does. Athletics sign Luis Severino for 3 years, $67 million; Angels sign Yusei Kikuchi for 3 years, $63 million These contracts are notable because they are both nearly identical to the remaining commitment in Pablo López's deal with the Twins (three years, $65 million). Would you rather have López – younger than both players at 28, and a proven Game 1 playoff starterr – at that price? I know I would. Would you give up quality talent in order to make it happen? Therein lies the question. Much like trading Correa, this is not a course of action I'd be on board with. The goal is to win a championship, right? You don't give up an All-Star shortstop or No. 1 starter when making that push. However, it cannot be ignored that trading Correa or López is perhaps the only method of clearing out substantial salary that would enable impactful additions elsewhere. And the early offseason landscape suggests that the Twins could get back real value in return if they did choose to follow this disruptive path. Free agent catchers Danny Jansen and Travis d’Arnaud land with Rays and Angels The far less disruptive and dramatic scenario for closing the gap on Minnesota's spending cap would be trading Christian Vázquez and his remaining contract (one year, $10 million). But of course, it takes two to tango and finding a taker for an expensive no-hit backup catcher is different from shopping a star. Unfortunately, two teams that could've been interested in taking on Vázquez's salary, or some portion of it, have found their solutions at catcher. Jansen signed with Tampa for one year and $8.5 million, while d'Arnaud's deal with the Angels is for two years and $12 million. Elsewhere, Austin Hedges re-signed with the Guardians for one year and $4 million. The Twins probably weren't going to make a trade with their top division rivals, but the Rays and Angels fulfilling their clear needs behind the plate will make the endeavor of trading Vázquez all the more challenging. Read more: Twins Trade Candidate Breakdown: Christian Vázquez Cubs sign SP Matthew Boyd for 2 years, $29 million I mention this signing because it's one of the most surprising "He got HOW much?" moments of this offseason thus far. Boyd has always had an interesting level of upside as a lefty with good stuff, but he's never come particularly close to unlocking it and has struggled perpetually to stay on the mound. He hasn't thrown even 80 innings in a season since 2019. In light of this contract, it's much easier to envision the Twins finding a taker for Chris Paddack (one year, $7.5 million) and maybe even getting a little bit back in return. Read more: Twins Trade Candidate Breakdown: Chris Paddack Royals re-sign SP Michael Wacha, trade with Reds for 2B Jonathan India and OF Joey Wiemer The message is here is that the Royals aren't going anywhere. Following a breakthrough 2024 season, Kansas City is continuing to push, already signing Wacha for three years and $51 million following his strong campaign, and sending pitcher Brady Singer to Cincinnati in a move that bolsters their offense. It feels like standing pat is almost the best thing we can hope for this offseason as Twins fans. Will that be enough if the Royals – not to mention the Tigers and even the Guardians, who re-signed starter Shane Bieber – continue to invest and improve? View full article
- 53 replies
-
- christian vazquez
- chris paddack
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
We have a pretty clear idea of what Derek Falvey, Jeremy Zoll and the Minnesota Twins front office are trying to accomplish right now. Since any potential additions are essentially contingent on clearing salary from the books and creating some spending flexibility, the Twins are looking to make a trade. Maybe more than one. While they haven't yet taken part in any significant move outside of the procedural types, there's been a fair amount of hot stove action elsewhere around the league. Let's review some of the more noteworthy moves and unpack the potential implications for the Twins in their efforts. (Moves and details courtesy of ESPN's very helpful offseason tracker.) San Francisco Giants sign SS Willy Adames for 7 years, $182M The relevance of this signing to the Twins depends on how legitimate you find the notion of a Carlos Correa trade. Adames was the big prize in the free agent shortstop market and now he's off the board. Other clubs looking to make a splash at the position will need to look elsewhere, and Correa could be an attractive target if he's willing to waive his no-trade clause. Correa is one year older than Adames and his remaining contract (four years, $128 million) looks quite reasonable relative to what San Francisco gave Adames, depending on your confidence in his health outlook. In particular, I've got my eyes on the Yankees. Last week MLB.com's ace reporter Mark Feinsand wrote that the Yanks were viewing Adames as a "backup plan" in the event they were unable to re-sign the highly coveted Juan Soto, who reached agreement with the cross-town Mets on a 15-year, $760 million deal on Sunday night. What's the Yankees' Plan B now? One month ago I wrote about speculation from NY media that the Yankees or Mets might consider reaching out to Minnesota about the availability of Correa. Personally I would not be in favor of trading Correa but it's unfortunately an option the Twins have to at least consider given their payroll circumstances. For what it's worth, Falvey has conspicuously failed to rule out the possibility when asked about it. New York Mets sign RP Clay Holmes with intentions of converting him to a starter This is a trend that is seemingly gaining traction across the league: taking an established relief pitcher and converting him to a starter, well into his career. The Padres did it successfully with Seth Lugo in 2023, setting Lugo up to land a sizable contract with Kansas City, where he's now the No. 1 starter. Elsewhere we've seen the Cardinals do it with Jordan Hicks, the Braves with Reynaldo Lopez, and the Rays with old friend Zack Littell, as a few examples. It's easy to see the appeal of this arrangement from the pitcher's perspective. Lugo was never getting the contract he got from Kansas City (three years, $45 million with an opt-out) as a relief pitcher. Same goes for Holmes and this similar deal he just got from the Mets: three years, $38 million with an opt-out. Which brings us to the subject of Griffin Jax. While not an offseason transactional move, per se, the idea of converting Jax back into a starter has definitely been a talking point. Seeing this approach increasingly utilized across the league lends further credence to the concept. At the same time, it does bear mentioning that none of the names we mentioned – Holmes, Lugo, etc. – had a case for being one of the two or three best relief pitchers in all of baseball, as Jax does. Athletics sign Luis Severino for 3 years, $67 million; Angels sign Yusei Kikuchi for 3 years, $63 million These contracts are notable because they are both nearly identical to the remaining commitment in Pablo López's deal with the Twins (three years, $65 million). Would you rather have López – younger than both players at 28, and a proven Game 1 playoff starterr – at that price? I know I would. Would you give up quality talent in order to make it happen? Therein lies the question. Much like trading Correa, this is not a course of action I'd be on board with. The goal is to win a championship, right? You don't give up an All-Star shortstop or No. 1 starter when making that push. However, it cannot be ignored that trading Correa or López is perhaps the only method of clearing out substantial salary that would enable impactful additions elsewhere. And the early offseason landscape suggests that the Twins could get back real value in return if they did choose to follow this disruptive path. Free agent catchers Danny Jansen and Travis d’Arnaud land with Rays and Angels The far less disruptive and dramatic scenario for closing the gap on Minnesota's spending cap would be trading Christian Vázquez and his remaining contract (one year, $10 million). But of course, it takes two to tango and finding a taker for an expensive no-hit backup catcher is different from shopping a star. Unfortunately, two teams that could've been interested in taking on Vázquez's salary, or some portion of it, have found their solutions at catcher. Jansen signed with Tampa for one year and $8.5 million, while d'Arnaud's deal with the Angels is for two years and $12 million. Elsewhere, Austin Hedges re-signed with the Guardians for one year and $4 million. The Twins probably weren't going to make a trade with their top division rivals, but the Rays and Angels fulfilling their clear needs behind the plate will make the endeavor of trading Vázquez all the more challenging. Read more: Twins Trade Candidate Breakdown: Christian Vázquez Cubs sign SP Matthew Boyd for 2 years, $29 million I mention this signing because it's one of the most surprising "He got HOW much?" moments of this offseason thus far. Boyd has always had an interesting level of upside as a lefty with good stuff, but he's never come particularly close to unlocking it and has struggled perpetually to stay on the mound. He hasn't thrown even 80 innings in a season since 2019. In light of this contract, it's much easier to envision the Twins finding a taker for Chris Paddack (one year, $7.5 million) and maybe even getting a little bit back in return. Read more: Twins Trade Candidate Breakdown: Chris Paddack Royals re-sign SP Michael Wacha, trade with Reds for 2B Jonathan India and OF Joey Wiemer The message is here is that the Royals aren't going anywhere. Following a breakthrough 2024 season, Kansas City is continuing to push, already signing Wacha for three years and $51 million following his strong campaign, and sending pitcher Brady Singer to Cincinnati in a move that bolsters their offense. It feels like standing pat is almost the best thing we can hope for this offseason as Twins fans. Will that be enough if the Royals – not to mention the Tigers and even the Guardians, who re-signed starter Shane Bieber – continue to invest and improve?
- 53 comments
-
- christian vazquez
- chris paddack
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
This is a great point and I think the ultimate struggle the Twins are facing. They might like to make a move proactively and create some flexibility, but their trade partners are motivated to wait.
- 62 replies
-
- chris paddack
- christian vazquez
-
(and 1 more)
Tagged with:
-
In the past, this front office has shown a tendency to bide its time on the offseason trade front, almost always waiting until the later stages of the winter to strike. This year, that isn't really an option. Image courtesy of Jerome Miron-Imagn Images Let's think back to some of the notable trades in recent Twins offseasons. This past year, there was the deal with Los Angeles that brought Manuel Margot to Minnesota. It happened in late February. The Jorge Polanco trade took place at the end of January. In 2023 the Twins traded for both Pablo Lopez and Michael A. Taylor in the latter part of January. In 2022, the Sonny Gray and Josh Donaldson trades took place in mid-March (following a lockout interruption). The 2020 Kenta Maeda trade was in mid-February, as was the Jake Odorizzi acquisition way back in 2018. Outside of November trades that were driven by arbitration-raise contract situations (e.g. Gio Urshela and Kyle Farmer in 2022), you'll be hard-pressed to find any examples of Minnesota's front office under Derek Falvey completing deals before the home stretch of the offseason. This has been their M.O. more generally -- stay patient, let the market take shape, await your opportunities -- but especially so on the trade front. I believe this is the year we see that change. The team's perceived payroll restrictions are prohibitive, to the extent that the front office really can't do anything until they find a way to clear out some salary. As we examined in our latest offseason status update, the Twins are likely somewhere between $5 and $10 million over budget before making a single addition. It feels like the Twins are stuck in a holding pattern until they can find a way to offload some salary and get back above water. Whatever modest free agents they might have on their radar are liable to come off the board while Falvey and Jeremy Zoll sit and wait to find the right deal to materialize. The Twins are motivated sellers because any meaningful they action they want to take this offseason is essentially contingent on a stage-setting trade. Those trades could of course take many different shapes. The most obvious candidates to be moved in a pure salary dump are Christian Vazquez and Chris Paddack; they've been discussed plenty. The Twins could also pursue a more disruptive and high-scale avenue like trading Carlos Correa, or a more value-focused (albeit less financially-relieving) move like trading Willi Castro, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober or Jhoan Duran. Several options are on the table. But one way or another, something's gotta give. As much as patience has been a virtue for Falvey's front office in the past, it doesn't seem wise to let the entire offseason pass while frozen in place and incapable of acting in any substantial way. With all this in mind, I suspect we will see the Twins buck their trend of waiting until the late offseason to strike in trades. As the MLB Winter Meetings get underway next week in Dallas next Monday, the conversations could take on a bit more urgency than usual. If you want to get the full scoop on Minnesota's trade candidates, along with potential partners and possible returns, we went in-depth in our breakdown series. You can find those below: Chris Paddack Christian Vazquez Jhoan Duran Willi Castro Joe Ryan Bailey Ober Royce Lewis Ryan Jeffers Doris from HR 😂 View full article
- 62 replies
-
- chris paddack
- christian vazquez
-
(and 1 more)
Tagged with:
-
The Twins' Offseason Action Is Contingent on Making a Significant Trade
Nick Nelson posted an article in Twins
Let's think back to some of the notable trades in recent Twins offseasons. This past year, there was the deal with Los Angeles that brought Manuel Margot to Minnesota. It happened in late February. The Jorge Polanco trade took place at the end of January. In 2023 the Twins traded for both Pablo Lopez and Michael A. Taylor in the latter part of January. In 2022, the Sonny Gray and Josh Donaldson trades took place in mid-March (following a lockout interruption). The 2020 Kenta Maeda trade was in mid-February, as was the Jake Odorizzi acquisition way back in 2018. Outside of November trades that were driven by arbitration-raise contract situations (e.g. Gio Urshela and Kyle Farmer in 2022), you'll be hard-pressed to find any examples of Minnesota's front office under Derek Falvey completing deals before the home stretch of the offseason. This has been their M.O. more generally -- stay patient, let the market take shape, await your opportunities -- but especially so on the trade front. I believe this is the year we see that change. The team's perceived payroll restrictions are prohibitive, to the extent that the front office really can't do anything until they find a way to clear out some salary. As we examined in our latest offseason status update, the Twins are likely somewhere between $5 and $10 million over budget before making a single addition. It feels like the Twins are stuck in a holding pattern until they can find a way to offload some salary and get back above water. Whatever modest free agents they might have on their radar are liable to come off the board while Falvey and Jeremy Zoll sit and wait to find the right deal to materialize. The Twins are motivated sellers because any meaningful they action they want to take this offseason is essentially contingent on a stage-setting trade. Those trades could of course take many different shapes. The most obvious candidates to be moved in a pure salary dump are Christian Vazquez and Chris Paddack; they've been discussed plenty. The Twins could also pursue a more disruptive and high-scale avenue like trading Carlos Correa, or a more value-focused (albeit less financially-relieving) move like trading Willi Castro, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober or Jhoan Duran. Several options are on the table. But one way or another, something's gotta give. As much as patience has been a virtue for Falvey's front office in the past, it doesn't seem wise to let the entire offseason pass while frozen in place and incapable of acting in any substantial way. With all this in mind, I suspect we will see the Twins buck their trend of waiting until the late offseason to strike in trades. As the MLB Winter Meetings get underway next week in Dallas next Monday, the conversations could take on a bit more urgency than usual. If you want to get the full scoop on Minnesota's trade candidates, along with potential partners and possible returns, we went in-depth in our breakdown series. You can find those below: Chris Paddack Christian Vazquez Jhoan Duran Willi Castro Joe Ryan Bailey Ober Royce Lewis Ryan Jeffers Doris from HR 😂- 62 comments
-
- chris paddack
- christian vazquez
-
(and 1 more)
Tagged with:
-
Are the Minnesota Twins Willing to Believe in DaShawn Keirsey Jr.?
Nick Nelson posted an article in Twins
In 2023, between Double-A and Triple-A, DaShawn Keirsey Jr. had a fantastic season. He slashed .294/.366/.455 with 15 homers, 41 extra-base hits and 39 steals in 130 games, all while playing (primarily) center field. At age 26, the former fourth-round draft pick had the makings of a late bloomer, capable of filling a valuable big-league role. As such, around this time a year ago, we were wondering if the Twins would add Keirsey to the 40-man roster and protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. They didn't, and from accounts that Aaron Gleeman has shared on the Gleeman and the Geek podcast, it doesn't sound like they seriously considered it. (Paraphrasing: After multiple inquiries about the team's likelihood of adding Keirsey, a Twins official replied to AG, "Boy, you really like DaShawn Keirsey, huh?") So then, we wondered if the Twins would regret exposing Keirsey to the Rule 5 draft. They didn't. He went undrafted and stayed in the organization, returning in 2024 to put together a season that was even more impressive than the last: In 111 games at Triple-A, he slashed .300/.368/.476 with 14 homers, 43 extra-base hits and 36 steals. His 133 hits set a St. Paul Saints franchise record—despite missing nearly a month with injury. The Twins continued to exhibit a lack of visible faith. They didn't call up Keirsey until their hand was essentially forced in September, when they finally placed a hobbled Max Kepler on the injured list. Then they sent Keirsey back down nine days later. Keirsey returned for the final weekend of the season, once Minnesota was knocked out of contention, but overall, he got only 14 plate appearances. During his brief time with the Twins, Keirsey went 2-for-13 but showed a few nice signs, including some defensive flashes and a home run. He clearly can handle center, and he offers standout speed, which is a rarity on this slogging Minnesota roster. His performance in Triple-A at least suggests some level of offensive ability. With Kepler and Manuel Margot departing this offseason, the Twins need a player like Keirsey, who could back up Byron Buxton in center and supplement their corner outfield depth. But are they willing to trust Keirsey to be that guy? That's not at all clear. The front office's reluctance to give Keirsey a chance this season and the lack of playing time he received when on the roster, seem like red flags. Why not feed him some at-bats at the tail end of the season to get a better look if you're considering him as part of your future plans? Keirsey got three at-bats the final weekend, in meaningless games. You don't find a ton of late-20s guys with virtually no MLB experience on 40-man rosters, and between Keirsey and Michael Helman, the Twins have a couple. There isn't much evidence the team has significant confidence in either, but at the same time, both have the ability to fill roles the team needs and both would make the minimum in 2025, which weighs heavily for the front office given its financial constraints. Keirsey strikes me as a pivotal figure this offseason. Will the Twins aim higher for the backup center-field role, dedicating some share of their limited resources to an external option like Michael A. Taylor or Margot? Or are they finally willing to give Keirsey a real shot? In the end, they might not have much of a choice. -
The Twins need major-league outfield depth—namely, a player who can back up Byron Buxton in center and handle the corners as needed. They already have a player on hand capable of fulfilling this role, at the league minimum salary. It's just not all that clear the team trusts him to do it. Should they? Image courtesy of Matt Krohn-Imagn Images In 2023, between Double-A and Triple-A, DaShawn Keirsey Jr. had a fantastic season. He slashed .294/.366/.455 with 15 homers, 41 extra-base hits and 39 steals in 130 games, all while playing (primarily) center field. At age 26, the former fourth-round draft pick had the makings of a late bloomer, capable of filling a valuable big-league role. As such, around this time a year ago, we were wondering if the Twins would add Keirsey to the 40-man roster and protect him from the Rule 5 Draft. They didn't, and from accounts that Aaron Gleeman has shared on the Gleeman and the Geek podcast, it doesn't sound like they seriously considered it. (Paraphrasing: After multiple inquiries about the team's likelihood of adding Keirsey, a Twins official replied to AG, "Boy, you really like DaShawn Keirsey, huh?") So then, we wondered if the Twins would regret exposing Keirsey to the Rule 5 draft. They didn't. He went undrafted and stayed in the organization, returning in 2024 to put together a season that was even more impressive than the last: In 111 games at Triple-A, he slashed .300/.368/.476 with 14 homers, 43 extra-base hits and 36 steals. His 133 hits set a St. Paul Saints franchise record—despite missing nearly a month with injury. The Twins continued to exhibit a lack of visible faith. They didn't call up Keirsey until their hand was essentially forced in September, when they finally placed a hobbled Max Kepler on the injured list. Then they sent Keirsey back down nine days later. Keirsey returned for the final weekend of the season, once Minnesota was knocked out of contention, but overall, he got only 14 plate appearances. During his brief time with the Twins, Keirsey went 2-for-13 but showed a few nice signs, including some defensive flashes and a home run. He clearly can handle center, and he offers standout speed, which is a rarity on this slogging Minnesota roster. His performance in Triple-A at least suggests some level of offensive ability. With Kepler and Manuel Margot departing this offseason, the Twins need a player like Keirsey, who could back up Byron Buxton in center and supplement their corner outfield depth. But are they willing to trust Keirsey to be that guy? That's not at all clear. The front office's reluctance to give Keirsey a chance this season and the lack of playing time he received when on the roster, seem like red flags. Why not feed him some at-bats at the tail end of the season to get a better look if you're considering him as part of your future plans? Keirsey got three at-bats the final weekend, in meaningless games. You don't find a ton of late-20s guys with virtually no MLB experience on 40-man rosters, and between Keirsey and Michael Helman, the Twins have a couple. There isn't much evidence the team has significant confidence in either, but at the same time, both have the ability to fill roles the team needs and both would make the minimum in 2025, which weighs heavily for the front office given its financial constraints. Keirsey strikes me as a pivotal figure this offseason. Will the Twins aim higher for the backup center-field role, dedicating some share of their limited resources to an external option like Michael A. Taylor or Margot? Or are they finally willing to give Keirsey a real shot? In the end, they might not have much of a choice. View full article
-
This may happen and I wouldn't hate it but one year ago the Twins basically rolled their eyes at the notion they would protect Keirsey from the Rule 5, and they didn't call him up this season until they had little choice in the matter, then gave him 14 plate appearances. I just don't get the sense they have much belief. He is cheap, though.
- 34 replies
-
- michael tonkin
- justin topa
-
(and 1 more)
Tagged with:
-
The fact that everyone (including myself) is so resigned to absolutely nothing happening this offseason makes me feel convinced something(s) big is going to happen. This front office has proven to be unpredictable in the past, and now we've got a newly elevated GM looking to make his name.
- 34 replies
-
- michael tonkin
- justin topa
-
(and 1 more)
Tagged with:
-
The projected 2025 roster has come into clearer focus over the first month of the offseason, but big questions remain. We should start to get some clarity soon with the marquee event of hot stove season quickly approaching. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, Matt Blewett-Imagn Images We knew coming into this offseason that Twins fans were in for a long, slow winter, with the front office's impetus to trim down payroll serving as the main storyline rather than any potential for big-splash additions. It's been expectedly quiet through the first month. That said, things are happening. With the deadlines to protect Rule 5-eligible prospects and tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players arriving over the past few weeks, the Twins were compelled to make several key decisions. We'll catch you up on those while also setting the stage for the upcoming Winter Meetings in Dallas, where trade conversations figure to heat up. Twins Tender Contracts to All Arbitration-Eligible Players When the arbitration deadline arrived on November 22nd, the Twins front office decided to tender contracts to all 11 eligible players, with the only exception being Alex Kirilloff who had already made the decision for them by retiring earlier in the month. The class of retained players, who will all receive guaranteed contracts (many of which still need to be specifically agreed upon), included a few mild surprises—namely, Justin Topa and Michael Tonkin. Neither will be expensive; Topa agreed at $1.225 million ($1 million in 2025 with a $2 million option and $225K buyout in 2026), Tonkin at $1 million for one year. But neither was a significant contributor for this season's team. I would basically view them as the equivalents to low-wattage free-agent signings from last year, like Jay Jackson and Josh Staumont, and in that vein, they are fine. Often, in cases like these, the agreement on a deal ahead of the tender deadline tells us the team was unwilling to tender them without getting cost certainty. With six of seven bullpen spots all but spoken for between Tonkin, Topa, Cole Sands, Jorge Alcalá, Brock Stewart, Griffin Jax, and Jhoan Durán, it's very unlikely the Twins will be active on the bullpen front this offseason. Which is fine, because they have the makings of an elite unit. Raya, Adams Added to 40-Man Roster Ahead of the deadline to add prospects to the 40-man roster in order to protect them from being exposed to the upcoming Rule 5 draft, Minnesota selected two players: Marco Raya and Travis Adams. Raya was a no-brainer. Adams was a bit more surprising, but hardly a shock. The former is a highly-rated 22-year-old pitching prospect whose combination of proven performance, upside and proximity to MLB would have made him irresistible to Rule 5 talent hunters. The latter is a 24-year-old right-hander who could hardly be considered a top prospect, but whose ability to fill an immediate functional depth role is viewed as valuable. Since his addition to the 40-man roster nudges Adams into the Twins' future plans, he's worth learning more about. I wrote of the former sixth-rounder's appealing traits, including his durability: Adams leads all Twins minor-leaguers in innings pitched over the past three seasons. With Raya and Adams aboard, the Twins' 40-man roster currently sits at 37. At the moment, it's slightly lopsided, with 21 pitchers and only 16 position players—and that's with two spots being occupied by Michael Helman and DaShawn Keirsey Jr. Personally, I'd be surprised if both were still rostered at the start of spring training. One thing coming into focus is the fact that a bigger restructuring of the position-player group than we expected is probably looming. Speas Signed to Minor-League Deal The only signings we've seen from the Twins front office over the first month of the offseason were of the minor-league variety, and many were just bringing back 40-man roster casualties like Yunior Severino, Scott Blewett and Daniel Duarte. However, one noteworthy outside pickup was righty reliever Alex Speas, who signed a minor-league contract with an invite to spring training. The story on Speas: big fastball, reaching triple digits, and big control problems. Last year he spent time with four different organizations, posting a 12.13 ERA with a 45-to-43 K/BB ratio in 29 ⅔ innings at Triple-A while also making one appearance in the majors. (None of those numbers is a typo. Unfortunately.) He's a project, and one that many different teams have been keen to take a shot at, with little success so far. Turning 27 in March, the former second-round draft pick will be worth keeping an eye on as an intriguing bullpen longshot. Trade Talks to Heat Up at Winter Meetings? From my view, the Twins have a pretty credible, contending-caliber roster in place. Sure, you'd like to add a couple more bats, but as I look over the roster layout below, it strikes me as a club that could plausibly win the division. The problem, as you can see over on the right side, is that they are about $4 million over their budget by my (inexact) calculations. I've seen other estimates that put them close to $10 million above the $130 million threshold that ownership appears to have set. That means the Twins are going to need to find a way to unload some salary to meet the payroll mandate they have in place, and even more if they want to add meaningfully from outside. There's been plenty of buzz around Christian Vázquez and Chris Paddack as clear candidates to be moved. Other, weightier names like Carlos Correa, Pablo López, and Jhoan Durán have also been thrown around as possibilities on the more disruptive end. It really feels like everything is on the table here in a fascinating first offseason for Jeremy Zoll in the GM chair, officially second in command to the organization's head honcho Derek Falvey. What are you expecting to see? View full article
- 34 replies
-
- michael tonkin
- justin topa
-
(and 1 more)
Tagged with:
-
Offseason Status Update: Counting Down to the Winter Meetings
Nick Nelson posted an article in Twins
We knew coming into this offseason that Twins fans were in for a long, slow winter, with the front office's impetus to trim down payroll serving as the main storyline rather than any potential for big-splash additions. It's been expectedly quiet through the first month. That said, things are happening. With the deadlines to protect Rule 5-eligible prospects and tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players arriving over the past few weeks, the Twins were compelled to make several key decisions. We'll catch you up on those while also setting the stage for the upcoming Winter Meetings in Dallas, where trade conversations figure to heat up. Twins Tender Contracts to All Arbitration-Eligible Players When the arbitration deadline arrived on November 22nd, the Twins front office decided to tender contracts to all 11 eligible players, with the only exception being Alex Kirilloff who had already made the decision for them by retiring earlier in the month. The class of retained players, who will all receive guaranteed contracts (many of which still need to be specifically agreed upon), included a few mild surprises—namely, Justin Topa and Michael Tonkin. Neither will be expensive; Topa agreed at $1.225 million ($1 million in 2025 with a $2 million option and $225K buyout in 2026), Tonkin at $1 million for one year. But neither was a significant contributor for this season's team. I would basically view them as the equivalents to low-wattage free-agent signings from last year, like Jay Jackson and Josh Staumont, and in that vein, they are fine. Often, in cases like these, the agreement on a deal ahead of the tender deadline tells us the team was unwilling to tender them without getting cost certainty. With six of seven bullpen spots all but spoken for between Tonkin, Topa, Cole Sands, Jorge Alcalá, Brock Stewart, Griffin Jax, and Jhoan Durán, it's very unlikely the Twins will be active on the bullpen front this offseason. Which is fine, because they have the makings of an elite unit. Raya, Adams Added to 40-Man Roster Ahead of the deadline to add prospects to the 40-man roster in order to protect them from being exposed to the upcoming Rule 5 draft, Minnesota selected two players: Marco Raya and Travis Adams. Raya was a no-brainer. Adams was a bit more surprising, but hardly a shock. The former is a highly-rated 22-year-old pitching prospect whose combination of proven performance, upside and proximity to MLB would have made him irresistible to Rule 5 talent hunters. The latter is a 24-year-old right-hander who could hardly be considered a top prospect, but whose ability to fill an immediate functional depth role is viewed as valuable. Since his addition to the 40-man roster nudges Adams into the Twins' future plans, he's worth learning more about. I wrote of the former sixth-rounder's appealing traits, including his durability: Adams leads all Twins minor-leaguers in innings pitched over the past three seasons. With Raya and Adams aboard, the Twins' 40-man roster currently sits at 37. At the moment, it's slightly lopsided, with 21 pitchers and only 16 position players—and that's with two spots being occupied by Michael Helman and DaShawn Keirsey Jr. Personally, I'd be surprised if both were still rostered at the start of spring training. One thing coming into focus is the fact that a bigger restructuring of the position-player group than we expected is probably looming. Speas Signed to Minor-League Deal The only signings we've seen from the Twins front office over the first month of the offseason were of the minor-league variety, and many were just bringing back 40-man roster casualties like Yunior Severino, Scott Blewett and Daniel Duarte. However, one noteworthy outside pickup was righty reliever Alex Speas, who signed a minor-league contract with an invite to spring training. The story on Speas: big fastball, reaching triple digits, and big control problems. Last year he spent time with four different organizations, posting a 12.13 ERA with a 45-to-43 K/BB ratio in 29 ⅔ innings at Triple-A while also making one appearance in the majors. (None of those numbers is a typo. Unfortunately.) He's a project, and one that many different teams have been keen to take a shot at, with little success so far. Turning 27 in March, the former second-round draft pick will be worth keeping an eye on as an intriguing bullpen longshot. Trade Talks to Heat Up at Winter Meetings? From my view, the Twins have a pretty credible, contending-caliber roster in place. Sure, you'd like to add a couple more bats, but as I look over the roster layout below, it strikes me as a club that could plausibly win the division. The problem, as you can see over on the right side, is that they are about $4 million over their budget by my (inexact) calculations. I've seen other estimates that put them close to $10 million above the $130 million threshold that ownership appears to have set. That means the Twins are going to need to find a way to unload some salary to meet the payroll mandate they have in place, and even more if they want to add meaningfully from outside. There's been plenty of buzz around Christian Vázquez and Chris Paddack as clear candidates to be moved. Other, weightier names like Carlos Correa, Pablo López, and Jhoan Durán have also been thrown around as possibilities on the more disruptive end. It really feels like everything is on the table here in a fascinating first offseason for Jeremy Zoll in the GM chair, officially second in command to the organization's head honcho Derek Falvey. What are you expecting to see?- 34 comments
-
- michael tonkin
- justin topa
-
(and 1 more)
Tagged with:
-
The Twins added right-handed pitching prospect Travis Adams to their 40-man roster on Tuesday, positioning him to play a role in their short-term plans. Here's what you should know about him. Image courtesy of William Parmeter The Minnesota Twins added two prospects to their 40-man roster ahead of Tuesday's deadline to protect players from Rule 5 draft: Marco Raya and Travis Adams. In our article previewing this deadline, we had Raya at the top of the list in terms of likelihood, and Adams near the bottom. He's not considered one of the organization's best prospects (Adams is not in Twins Daily's top 20 or even MLB.com's top 30). As a mid-20s right-handed pitcher, his profile is robustly represented in the Twins system. The addition of Adams to the 40-man roster above several other candidates serves as a good reminder that this decision is not so much about who your best prospects are, or even where your greatest organizational depth needs lie. It's all about who you actually expect other teams to target when the Rule 5 rolls around on December 11th. Clearly there was a sense that Adams would be at real risk, despite a track record and rep that don't stand out at first blush. So let's take a closer look at what the Twins see in the righty, and what they feel other clubs might see. Travis Adams: Background and Development The Twins selected Adams in the sixth round of the 2021 MLB Draft as a college pitcher out of a Sacramento State. The first five players they drafted that year (Chase Petty, Noah Miller, Steve Hajjar, Cade Povich, Christian Encarnacion-Strand) have all been traded, leaving fifth-rounder Christian MacLeod and Adams the most highly-drafted remaining players from the class. "Adams fastball ranges from 90-95 mph and has touched 97 at its best," shared Baseball America in their draft report. "He goes right after hitters with his fastball and gets plenty of swings and misses on it ... Adams is a good athlete with a quick arm and still has some physical projection left to add strength and throw harder in the future." That last part – projectability to add bulk and velocity – has been a common trait for mid-round college arms drafted by the Twins, and we've seen it come to fruition time and time again, including with David Festa, a 13th-rounder from the same draft. But relative to Festa and many other arms in Minnesota's pitching pipeline, Adams has not posted especially impressive numbers as a pro: 4.54 ERA, 23% K-rate in 75 appearances (70 starts). What to Like About Travis Adams What Adams has been able to do is establish a strong baseline of durability, throwing 100 innings in his first season (2022), 110 innings last year, and 127 innings this year. Relative to many pitching prospects – including in the Twins system – there is little question about Adams's ability to hold up as a starter. He leads all Twins minor-leaguers in innings pitched since 2022. He also showed a lot of improvement this year after struggling mightily in 2023 as a 23-year-old at Double-A, improving from a 5.66 ERA to 3.67 in 2024 to earn a late-season promotion to Triple-A, where he made four appearances. Adams didn't post huge strikeout numbers over the course of the season but he threw strikes and got ground balls. From a repertoire standpoint, Adams is pretty conventional: four-seam fastball, changeup, slider, and curveball. In a spotlight interview with Twins Daily's Seth Stohs last year, Adams said his fastball “will sometimes cut, sometimes run, just kind of do its own thing from time to time.” Turning 25 in January, he's ready-made MLB pitching depth, and while he doesn't seem to boast an especially high ceiling, that can change. For one example, look no further than current rotation stalwart Bailey Ober. He was barely on anyone's radar when the Twins added him to their 40-man roster following the 2020 season. Look where he is now, four years later. I'm not saying Adams will follow the same path but this move makes him one to watch. View full article
-
Who Is Travis Adams? Meet Minnesota's New 40-Man Roster Addition
Nick Nelson posted an article in Twins
The Minnesota Twins added two prospects to their 40-man roster ahead of Tuesday's deadline to protect players from Rule 5 draft: Marco Raya and Travis Adams. In our article previewing this deadline, we had Raya at the top of the list in terms of likelihood, and Adams near the bottom. He's not considered one of the organization's best prospects (Adams is not in Twins Daily's top 20 or even MLB.com's top 30). As a mid-20s right-handed pitcher, his profile is robustly represented in the Twins system. The addition of Adams to the 40-man roster above several other candidates serves as a good reminder that this decision is not so much about who your best prospects are, or even where your greatest organizational depth needs lie. It's all about who you actually expect other teams to target when the Rule 5 rolls around on December 11th. Clearly there was a sense that Adams would be at real risk, despite a track record and rep that don't stand out at first blush. So let's take a closer look at what the Twins see in the righty, and what they feel other clubs might see. Travis Adams: Background and Development The Twins selected Adams in the sixth round of the 2021 MLB Draft as a college pitcher out of a Sacramento State. The first five players they drafted that year (Chase Petty, Noah Miller, Steve Hajjar, Cade Povich, Christian Encarnacion-Strand) have all been traded, leaving fifth-rounder Christian MacLeod and Adams the most highly-drafted remaining players from the class. "Adams fastball ranges from 90-95 mph and has touched 97 at its best," shared Baseball America in their draft report. "He goes right after hitters with his fastball and gets plenty of swings and misses on it ... Adams is a good athlete with a quick arm and still has some physical projection left to add strength and throw harder in the future." That last part – projectability to add bulk and velocity – has been a common trait for mid-round college arms drafted by the Twins, and we've seen it come to fruition time and time again, including with David Festa, a 13th-rounder from the same draft. But relative to Festa and many other arms in Minnesota's pitching pipeline, Adams has not posted especially impressive numbers as a pro: 4.54 ERA, 23% K-rate in 75 appearances (70 starts). What to Like About Travis Adams What Adams has been able to do is establish a strong baseline of durability, throwing 100 innings in his first season (2022), 110 innings last year, and 127 innings this year. Relative to many pitching prospects – including in the Twins system – there is little question about Adams's ability to hold up as a starter. He leads all Twins minor-leaguers in innings pitched since 2022. He also showed a lot of improvement this year after struggling mightily in 2023 as a 23-year-old at Double-A, improving from a 5.66 ERA to 3.67 in 2024 to earn a late-season promotion to Triple-A, where he made four appearances. Adams didn't post huge strikeout numbers over the course of the season but he threw strikes and got ground balls. From a repertoire standpoint, Adams is pretty conventional: four-seam fastball, changeup, slider, and curveball. In a spotlight interview with Twins Daily's Seth Stohs last year, Adams said his fastball “will sometimes cut, sometimes run, just kind of do its own thing from time to time.” Turning 25 in January, he's ready-made MLB pitching depth, and while he doesn't seem to boast an especially high ceiling, that can change. For one example, look no further than current rotation stalwart Bailey Ober. He was barely on anyone's radar when the Twins added him to their 40-man roster following the 2020 season. Look where he is now, four years later. I'm not saying Adams will follow the same path but this move makes him one to watch. -
The 2025 season will mark the 10-year anniversary of Kansas City's last World Series title, which was memorably earned through the might of a legendary relief corps. The Royals ranked 22nd among MLB teams in starting pitcher ERA that year, and 11th in offensive wOBA. They had zero players hit 25 home runs or post an .850 OPS. In many respects it was a fairly ordinary team. But, that bullpen. Powered by Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera, Ryan Madson, Franklin Morales and closer Greg Holland, Kansas City's bullpen ranked second in MLB in ERA, third in fWAR. They took their game to the next level in the playoffs, leading the Royals past big-market titans in Houston, Toronto and New York on the way to a second championship in franchise history. Ten years ago, we witnessed the overwhelming impact of a consistently elite bullpen in the playoffs. And last year, within the same division, we saw it in the regular season. Cleveland ranked 24th in the majors in starting pitcher ERA. They ranked 17th among MLB teams in wOBA and 14th in runs scored. But their unbelievable, impenetrable bullpen, which led baseball in ERA and fWAR, turned game after game in their favor en route to a division title and ALCS berth. Hopefully the Twins will fare better in terms of offense and starting pitching than the 2015 Royals or 2024 Guardians. I'd argue they should be expected to do so as currently constructed. But it's clear that a truly transcendent bullpen could be the differentiator that flips Minnesota from middling contender to championship caliber in 2025. The path to a top-tier or even league-leading bullpen for the Minnesota Twins is not as improbable as one might believe. In fact, it's actually quite reasonable and straightforward. For starters, by some measures, the Twins bullpen already was top-tier in 2024. Their relievers ranked fifth in the majors in fWAR and FIP, behind only Cleveland among AL teams. I know that's small consolation considering they ranked 19th in ERA and were susceptible to devastating meltdowns, but there was a lot of bad luck, rotten timing and batted-ball noise involved. Also some bad pitching. I don't want to discount that. But consider this: In 2024 the Twins had five veterans -- Caleb Thielbar, Steven Okert, Jay Jackson, Trevor Richards -- combine to allow 86 earned runs in 146 ⅓ innings (5.29 ERA). Presumably none will be back next year. It's hard to imagine the replacements being worse. What the Twins are bringing back is an outstanding core. Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax are an elite combo at the back end. Cole Sands is coming off a breakout year, as is Jorge Alcala to a lesser extent. Kody Funderburk and Ronny Henriquez have both shown flashes of promise and will both remain in the mix. Jovani Moran will be recovered from Tommy John surgery next spring and looking to reassert himself. But there are two key additions, and a couple of prospect sleepers, I have my eye on who could really move the needle. First, Brock Stewart. If healthy and pitching up to his standard as a Twin (2.28 ERA, 12.3 K/9), he'll be their best reliever and will single-handedly lift the bullpen to another level. I know it's tough to believe in his health after another ruined season, but there seemed to be real optimism that the arthroscopic shoulder surgery he underwent in mid-August will finally resolve the issues that have been plaguing him. Stewart said at the time he was "kind of relieved to know that it's going to be fixed and I have a clean slate for next season.” Second, Louie Varland. Following a frustrating season that saw him shifting between roles and levels, my hope is that the Twins will simply commit to Varland as a reliever from the jump next season with the hopes of fully unlocking his potential. We saw it on display in late 2023 and at times in '24. I truly believe that he can be that guy, or something close, as a full-time reliever pitching at max effort, and he can do it over multiple innings, which is so valuable in today's game. Finally, more of a wild-card: Marco Raya. I listed him last week among four prospects who could have game-changing debuts in 2025, envisioning a multi-inning relief role that he'd be well suited for if he shows up at Triple-A throwing fire. Another pitcher I mentioned in that article was Connor Prielipp, who is more of a longshot after throwing just 30 innings the past two seasons, but is an arm the Twins will want to find a role for in the majors quickly if healthy. Envisioning a bullpen with Varland, Raya and Prielipp all filling length roles on top of the existing core of Duran, Jax, Sands, and Alcala, with Stewart returning to the fold ... well, that's a unit that could absolutely dominate. I'm not going to say they'd be capable of matching what Cleveland did last year because no one is -- including Cleveland next year -- but it's absolutely in that class of talent, functionality and depth. And that's before you add any acquisitions, which will admittedly be low-wattage in all likelihood. I hope the Twins make at least one impactful addition to the bullpen from the outside, ideally a left-handed reliever with some level of credibility, but when you look at this group of arms -- ranked on paper as the No. 1 bullpen in baseball at present, according to FanGraphs -- it's easy to get excited about what lies ahead on the relief front. This is a big part of the reason no one should be discounting the Minnesota Twins as contenders, regardless of what happens this winter.
- 47 comments
-
- jhoan duran
- griffin jax
-
(and 3 more)
Tagged with:
-
Even with minimal offseason moves, it's not as big of a leap as you might think. Seriously. Image courtesy of David Richard and Jerome Miron-Imagn Images The 2025 season will mark the 10-year anniversary of Kansas City's last World Series title, which was memorably earned through the might of a legendary relief corps. The Royals ranked 22nd among MLB teams in starting pitcher ERA that year, and 11th in offensive wOBA. They had zero players hit 25 home runs or post an .850 OPS. In many respects it was a fairly ordinary team. But, that bullpen. Powered by Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera, Ryan Madson, Franklin Morales and closer Greg Holland, Kansas City's bullpen ranked second in MLB in ERA, third in fWAR. They took their game to the next level in the playoffs, leading the Royals past big-market titans in Houston, Toronto and New York on the way to a second championship in franchise history. Ten years ago, we witnessed the overwhelming impact of a consistently elite bullpen in the playoffs. And last year, within the same division, we saw it in the regular season. Cleveland ranked 24th in the majors in starting pitcher ERA. They ranked 17th among MLB teams in wOBA and 14th in runs scored. But their unbelievable, impenetrable bullpen, which led baseball in ERA and fWAR, turned game after game in their favor en route to a division title and ALCS berth. Hopefully the Twins will fare better in terms of offense and starting pitching than the 2015 Royals or 2024 Guardians. I'd argue they should be expected to do so as currently constructed. But it's clear that a truly transcendent bullpen could be the differentiator that flips Minnesota from middling contender to championship caliber in 2025. The path to a top-tier or even league-leading bullpen for the Minnesota Twins is not as improbable as one might believe. In fact, it's actually quite reasonable and straightforward. For starters, by some measures, the Twins bullpen already was top-tier in 2024. Their relievers ranked fifth in the majors in fWAR and FIP, behind only Cleveland among AL teams. I know that's small consolation considering they ranked 19th in ERA and were susceptible to devastating meltdowns, but there was a lot of bad luck, rotten timing and batted-ball noise involved. Also some bad pitching. I don't want to discount that. But consider this: In 2024 the Twins had five veterans -- Caleb Thielbar, Steven Okert, Jay Jackson, Trevor Richards -- combine to allow 86 earned runs in 146 ⅓ innings (5.29 ERA). Presumably none will be back next year. It's hard to imagine the replacements being worse. What the Twins are bringing back is an outstanding core. Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax are an elite combo at the back end. Cole Sands is coming off a breakout year, as is Jorge Alcala to a lesser extent. Kody Funderburk and Ronny Henriquez have both shown flashes of promise and will both remain in the mix. Jovani Moran will be recovered from Tommy John surgery next spring and looking to reassert himself. But there are two key additions, and a couple of prospect sleepers, I have my eye on who could really move the needle. First, Brock Stewart. If healthy and pitching up to his standard as a Twin (2.28 ERA, 12.3 K/9), he'll be their best reliever and will single-handedly lift the bullpen to another level. I know it's tough to believe in his health after another ruined season, but there seemed to be real optimism that the arthroscopic shoulder surgery he underwent in mid-August will finally resolve the issues that have been plaguing him. Stewart said at the time he was "kind of relieved to know that it's going to be fixed and I have a clean slate for next season.” Second, Louie Varland. Following a frustrating season that saw him shifting between roles and levels, my hope is that the Twins will simply commit to Varland as a reliever from the jump next season with the hopes of fully unlocking his potential. We saw it on display in late 2023 and at times in '24. I truly believe that he can be that guy, or something close, as a full-time reliever pitching at max effort, and he can do it over multiple innings, which is so valuable in today's game. Finally, more of a wild-card: Marco Raya. I listed him last week among four prospects who could have game-changing debuts in 2025, envisioning a multi-inning relief role that he'd be well suited for if he shows up at Triple-A throwing fire. Another pitcher I mentioned in that article was Connor Prielipp, who is more of a longshot after throwing just 30 innings the past two seasons, but is an arm the Twins will want to find a role for in the majors quickly if healthy. Envisioning a bullpen with Varland, Raya and Prielipp all filling length roles on top of the existing core of Duran, Jax, Sands, and Alcala, with Stewart returning to the fold ... well, that's a unit that could absolutely dominate. I'm not going to say they'd be capable of matching what Cleveland did last year because no one is -- including Cleveland next year -- but it's absolutely in that class of talent, functionality and depth. And that's before you add any acquisitions, which will admittedly be low-wattage in all likelihood. I hope the Twins make at least one impactful addition to the bullpen from the outside, ideally a left-handed reliever with some level of credibility, but when you look at this group of arms -- ranked on paper as the No. 1 bullpen in baseball at present, according to FanGraphs -- it's easy to get excited about what lies ahead on the relief front. This is a big part of the reason no one should be discounting the Minnesota Twins as contenders, regardless of what happens this winter. View full article
- 47 replies
-
- jhoan duran
- griffin jax
-
(and 3 more)
Tagged with:
-
Tuesday marks the deadline for MLB teams to add prospects to their 40-man roster in order to protect those players from being poached in the Rule 5 Draft. The Twins have a few interesting decisions in front of them. Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge (photo of Marco Raya) By 5:00 PM CT on Tuesday, November 19th, MLB teams must file their "reserve lists," which is to say they must add eligible minor-league players to their 40-man rosters lest those players be exposed to the Rule 5 Draft when it takes place on December 11th. For front offices, this is always a balancing act. Certainly you want to avoid the risk of losing talented and promising players from the organization for nothing, but you also must be mindful of preserving 40-man flexibility in order to add impact talent. (For the Twins, that might be less of a concern this offseason.) Before we get started, it's worth pointing out that Minnesota's front office has a fair amount of roster space to play around with. Below you can find a current snapshot of their 40-man layout, which includes five open spaces plus a few others occupied by arbitration-eligible players who could be released by the non-tender deadline (Nov. 22). So the Twins can theoretically afford to be pretty liberal in handing out 40-man spots for players that they have any level of concern over losing. The flip side, though, is that rostering prospects puts their option clock into motion, so there is long-term risk in making this move with players who are still a distance from MLB readiness. Here are eight prospects in the Twins organization who have reached Rule 5 eligibility, and would have a reasonable shot at being selected next month, but are not yet on the 40-man roster. For each, I've assigned a percentage chance of being protected by Tuesday's deadline, along with a bit of reasoning why. Marco Raya, RHP Probability: 100% Why Protect Him: Raya is one of the best prospects in the Twins organization, ranked 10th by Twins Daily, and he's certainly one of the system's highest-caliber arms. Propelled by a standout slider, he owns a 3.75 ERA in 225 minor-league innings despite being pushed aggressively from a competitive standpoint. Raya finished this year at Triple-A as a 22-year-old, and has the potential to massively impact next year's team. He would definitely be taken, so the Twins will definitely protect him. Ricardo Olivar, OF/C Probability: 90% Why Protect Him: His interesting defensive profile is a big draw for the underrated Olivar, who once again split time between catcher and left field in 2024 while climbing to Double-A. Olivar's useful glove(s) would make him fairly easy to stash on a major-league bench even if you don't believe his intriguing bat – disciplined, but a bit low on power so far – is ready for prime-time. Given their future question marks at the catcher position and their perpetual need for right-handed hitters, I can't see the Twins letting Olivar get away. Kala’i Rosario, OF Probability: 60% Why Protect Him: Another potentially high-quality right-handed bat. He's got a big swing with a lot of raw power and a lot of whiff. Coming off a breakthrough season at Cedar Rapids in 2023, Rosario took a step backward and missed time with injury in 2024. But he held his own as a 21-year-old at Double-A, slashing .235/.321/.405 with 19 doubles and eight homers in 56 games. If left available for the Rule 5, I could see a team like Oakland snatching him and stashing him in an outfield corner or something, akin to Detroit poaching Akil Baddoo in 2021. Christian MacLeod, LHP Probability: 50% Why Protect Him: Simply put, the Twins really need left-handed pitchers. They currently have two on their 40-man roster, and they (Brent Headrick and Kody Funderburk) are fringe major-league talents. That's probably also true of MacLeod, but a little quantity wouldn't hurt. The former fifth-rounder from 2021 has rebounded from elbow surgery with a couple solid seasons, and he missed a lot of bats in Double-A this year despite upper-80s velocity. Southpaws who can get strikeouts are always in demand. I think whether or not they give MacLeod a spot on the 40-man roster will tell us much about the front office's ambitions (or lack thereof) to address this need externally. Rubel Cespedes, IF Probability: 35% Why Protect Him: Although Cespedes hasn't played above Single-A, he's a relatively polished player at age 24. His seemingly pedestrian numbers in the pitcher-friendly Midwest League (.282/.346/.431 in 463 PA) are stronger in context than they appear at first glance. He's a lefty hitter who can capably play third and second in addition to first. That's the kind of positional prospect depth Minnesota would like to keep around, but it might be a stretch to envision him getting selected. Will Holland, IF Probability: 20% Why Protect Him: Slick fielder who experienced a first-half offensive breakout in St. Paul, posting a .983 OPS before a broken leg ended his season in June. Those are really impressive numbers from a guy who can handle shortstop and center, but he was 26 playing in an inflated offensive environment. The previous year Holland put up a .606 OPS in Double-A. I wonder if the Twins are viewing him now similarly to how they viewed DaShawn Keirsey Jr. a year ago. (Incidentally, Keirsey went unprotected and unselected, but ended up getting some run for the Twins and is now on the 40-man roster.) Travis Adams, RHP Probability: 10% Why Protect Him: He’s worth mentioning as a fairly live arm that saw some success at Double-A (3.67 ERA in 108 IP) and reached Triple-A at 24, but I'm not sure Adams ranks highly enough in the pitching pipeline hierarchy to justify carving out a spot for. Noah Cardenas, C Probability: 10% Why Protect Him: The Twins need to have capable catchers handy. Cardenas hasn't shown he can hit (.173 AVG at Double-A last year), but he's a seasoned backstop with good defensive skills and he's 25. This is the kind of addition I could see the front office making if they planned to trade Christian Vázquez or Ryan Jeffers. What do you think? Did I miss any noteworthy names on this list? Are my odds too high or too low for any of these players? Let me know in the comments. View full article
- 44 replies
-
- marco raya
- ricardo olivar
-
(and 3 more)
Tagged with:
-
By 5:00 PM CT on Tuesday, November 19th, MLB teams must file their "reserve lists," which is to say they must add eligible minor-league players to their 40-man rosters lest those players be exposed to the Rule 5 Draft when it takes place on December 11th. For front offices, this is always a balancing act. Certainly you want to avoid the risk of losing talented and promising players from the organization for nothing, but you also must be mindful of preserving 40-man flexibility in order to add impact talent. (For the Twins, that might be less of a concern this offseason.) Before we get started, it's worth pointing out that Minnesota's front office has a fair amount of roster space to play around with. Below you can find a current snapshot of their 40-man layout, which includes five open spaces plus a few others occupied by arbitration-eligible players who could be released by the non-tender deadline (Nov. 22). So the Twins can theoretically afford to be pretty liberal in handing out 40-man spots for players that they have any level of concern over losing. The flip side, though, is that rostering prospects puts their option clock into motion, so there is long-term risk in making this move with players who are still a distance from MLB readiness. Here are eight prospects in the Twins organization who have reached Rule 5 eligibility, and would have a reasonable shot at being selected next month, but are not yet on the 40-man roster. For each, I've assigned a percentage chance of being protected by Tuesday's deadline, along with a bit of reasoning why. Marco Raya, RHP Probability: 100% Why Protect Him: Raya is one of the best prospects in the Twins organization, ranked 10th by Twins Daily, and he's certainly one of the system's highest-caliber arms. Propelled by a standout slider, he owns a 3.75 ERA in 225 minor-league innings despite being pushed aggressively from a competitive standpoint. Raya finished this year at Triple-A as a 22-year-old, and has the potential to massively impact next year's team. He would definitely be taken, so the Twins will definitely protect him. Ricardo Olivar, OF/C Probability: 90% Why Protect Him: His interesting defensive profile is a big draw for the underrated Olivar, who once again split time between catcher and left field in 2024 while climbing to Double-A. Olivar's useful glove(s) would make him fairly easy to stash on a major-league bench even if you don't believe his intriguing bat – disciplined, but a bit low on power so far – is ready for prime-time. Given their future question marks at the catcher position and their perpetual need for right-handed hitters, I can't see the Twins letting Olivar get away. Kala’i Rosario, OF Probability: 60% Why Protect Him: Another potentially high-quality right-handed bat. He's got a big swing with a lot of raw power and a lot of whiff. Coming off a breakthrough season at Cedar Rapids in 2023, Rosario took a step backward and missed time with injury in 2024. But he held his own as a 21-year-old at Double-A, slashing .235/.321/.405 with 19 doubles and eight homers in 56 games. If left available for the Rule 5, I could see a team like Oakland snatching him and stashing him in an outfield corner or something, akin to Detroit poaching Akil Baddoo in 2021. Christian MacLeod, LHP Probability: 50% Why Protect Him: Simply put, the Twins really need left-handed pitchers. They currently have two on their 40-man roster, and they (Brent Headrick and Kody Funderburk) are fringe major-league talents. That's probably also true of MacLeod, but a little quantity wouldn't hurt. The former fifth-rounder from 2021 has rebounded from elbow surgery with a couple solid seasons, and he missed a lot of bats in Double-A this year despite upper-80s velocity. Southpaws who can get strikeouts are always in demand. I think whether or not they give MacLeod a spot on the 40-man roster will tell us much about the front office's ambitions (or lack thereof) to address this need externally. Rubel Cespedes, IF Probability: 35% Why Protect Him: Although Cespedes hasn't played above Single-A, he's a relatively polished player at age 24. His seemingly pedestrian numbers in the pitcher-friendly Midwest League (.282/.346/.431 in 463 PA) are stronger in context than they appear at first glance. He's a lefty hitter who can capably play third and second in addition to first. That's the kind of positional prospect depth Minnesota would like to keep around, but it might be a stretch to envision him getting selected. Will Holland, IF Probability: 20% Why Protect Him: Slick fielder who experienced a first-half offensive breakout in St. Paul, posting a .983 OPS before a broken leg ended his season in June. Those are really impressive numbers from a guy who can handle shortstop and center, but he was 26 playing in an inflated offensive environment. The previous year Holland put up a .606 OPS in Double-A. I wonder if the Twins are viewing him now similarly to how they viewed DaShawn Keirsey Jr. a year ago. (Incidentally, Keirsey went unprotected and unselected, but ended up getting some run for the Twins and is now on the 40-man roster.) Travis Adams, RHP Probability: 10% Why Protect Him: He’s worth mentioning as a fairly live arm that saw some success at Double-A (3.67 ERA in 108 IP) and reached Triple-A at 24, but I'm not sure Adams ranks highly enough in the pitching pipeline hierarchy to justify carving out a spot for. Noah Cardenas, C Probability: 10% Why Protect Him: The Twins need to have capable catchers handy. Cardenas hasn't shown he can hit (.173 AVG at Double-A last year), but he's a seasoned backstop with good defensive skills and he's 25. This is the kind of addition I could see the front office making if they planned to trade Christian Vázquez or Ryan Jeffers. What do you think? Did I miss any noteworthy names on this list? Are my odds too high or too low for any of these players? Let me know in the comments.
- 44 comments
-
- marco raya
- ricardo olivar
-
(and 3 more)
Tagged with:
-
A new documentary series on Netflix covering one of the most riveting, fascinating rivalry moments in major-league history brings back to mind how involved -- tangentially, but repeatedly -- the Minnesota Twins were in the way this story unfolded. Image courtesy of Richard Burkhart/Savannah Morning News / USA TODAY NETWORK Last month Netflix released a three-episode documentary series titled The Comeback: 2004 Boston Red Sox. Featuring a litany of interviews with players, managers and media, The Comeback vividly retells the tale of the '04 Red Sox unthinkably surmounting a 3-0 deficit against the Yankees in the ALCS, along with all of the high drama that built up to Boston's climactic, curse-snapping triumph. I watched all three episodes last week and greatly enjoyed the show, which has received strong reviews and is well worth checking out. Reliving all of those events from 20 years ago, I was starkly reminded of how prominently the Minnesota Twins factored into the legendary course of events, albeit as side characters. It's not the first time they've played such a supporting role in famous baseball lore of that era. In Moneyball, which depicted the 2002 season, Minnesota essentially played foil for Oakland's little-engine-that-could narrative, ending the Athletics' lengthy in-season win streak and then eliminating the A's from the playoffs. How ironic. In The Comeback, Minnesota's role is far more subservient to the narrative; they did much to pave the way for this epic showdown, and Boston's ultimate victory. Let's turn back the clock and take a closer look. Read Twins Daily's retrospective on the 2004 season from Matthew Lenz as part of our "Twins in the 2000s" series. Big Papi Becomes a Postseason Icon David Ortiz was the biggest hero in Boston's improbable '04 postseason run, so naturally he is featured as an interviewee in the documentary. The painful circumstances of his winding up in Boston are discussed: Ortiz came up as a promising power hitter in Minnesota's system, and was coming off a 20-homer season when the Twins -- who never seemed to quite fully believe -- non-tendered him at age 26. In The Comeback, Ortiz speaks of his dejection and frustration with the experience, which helped fuel his rise to greatness. Needless to say, it is one of the most maligned missteps in the history of the Twins franchise. A colossal mistake by Terry Ryan and the front office, no doubt. But what tends to get overlooked is that Minnesota was far from alone in undervaluing Ortiz, who'd been hampered by a wrist injury. After his release from the Twins in 2002, he struggled to find a new landing spot. In the documentary, inner-circle Hall of Fame pitcher Pedro Martinez shares an anecdote about running into Ortiz at a restaurant down in the Dominican Republic that offseason, and immediately calling and lobbying Boston's front office to sign him. "We need to sign him," Martinez recalls telling the team's traveling secretary. "This guy is going to be special. Get Theo [Epstein] on the phone.” The Red Sox signed Ortiz for $1.25 million shortly thereafter and the rest is history. He emerged as a major slugging threat in 2003 and then solidified his stardom in 2004, with an All-Star 40-HR season and a playoff showing for the ages that saw him bat .373 with five home runs and 19 RBIs in 14 games. He was ALCS MVP, delivering some of the most devastating blows that iconic Yankees group after absorbed in October. For Minnesota sports fans, it was bittersweet watching Ortiz blossom on the big stage in Beantown. The feelings would be similar a few years later when Randy Moss was featuring on the 16-0 Patriots, and Kevin Garnett on the championship Celtics. Boston enjoyed the greatest collective pro sports run of my lifetime, and Minnesota served as a key pipeline to their success. I'm not sure if it makes me feel more proud or petty. The Cross-Dugout Doug Mientkiewicz Trade One reason the Twins soured on Ortiz around 2002 is because they became enamored with Mientkiewicz and what he brought to the table. The organization had initially tried bringing Ortiz along as a first baseman before giving up on that notion and relegating him mostly to designated hitter. Mientkiewicz came along in the late '90s as an elite defender at first, and with a disciplined plate approach and controlled swing at the plate. He had a few truly excellent seasons for the Twins. By the time that the trade deadline rolled around in 2004, though, Mientkiewicz had been made expendable to the Twins by the emergence of top prospect Justin Morneau, who was obliterating Triple-A and ready for the majors. The Red Sox, as covered in The Comeback, were lagging behind New York in the standings and viewed their defense as a clear limiting weakness. Boston was in Minnesota playing the Twins on the day of the deadline, July 31st. Hours before game time, both were teams were involved in a complex four-way trade that sent Mientkiewicz to the Red Sox, alongside fellow Gold Glover and future Twins trade deadline acquisition Orlando Cabrera. Mientkiewicz simply switched dugouts and uniforms, starting at first for Boston that very day. He didn't hit much the rest of the way but it's fair to say his glove made an impact for the Red Sox in their charmed run. He later infamously caught the final out of the World Series for Boston and then refused to give it up. Yankees Vanquish Twins in 2004 ALDS In another universe, it might've been the Twins facing off against the Red Sox in that fateful 2004 ALCS. The Yankees needed to get past Minnesota in order to secure a semifinals rematch against Boston. While there have been plenty of lopsided Twins/Yankees playoff series over the years, this wasn't one of them. It was a battle that could have easily gone the other way. Johan Santana, fresh off a breakthrough Cy Young season, got the ball in Game 1 and shut the Yankees down to put Minnesota up 1-0 in the series. Game 2 went into extra innings; Torii Hunter gave the Twins a 6-5 lead in the top of the 12th before a gassed Joe Nathan gave up the game in the bottom half. Minnesota was two outs away from bringing a 2-0 lead back to the Metrodome, with another Johan start in their pocket. Instead, they dropped three straight and sparked the longest postseason losing streak in American sports history. This series wasn't covered much in The Comeback, which focuses mostly on Boston, but there is some footage of Yankees players celebrating their ALDS victory in the bowels of the Metrodome and it hurt. Maybe one day the prolonged postseason curse we've lived through since then will be subject of its own documentary, with a happy ending that is yet to be written. Have you watched The Comeback? Did watching it, or reading this article, spark any memories of the 2004 Twins season? Feel free to reminisce in the comments. View full article
-
Last month Netflix released a three-episode documentary series titled The Comeback: 2004 Boston Red Sox. Featuring a litany of interviews with players, managers and media, The Comeback vividly retells the tale of the '04 Red Sox unthinkably surmounting a 3-0 deficit against the Yankees in the ALCS, along with all of the high drama that built up to Boston's climactic, curse-snapping triumph. I watched all three episodes last week and greatly enjoyed the show, which has received strong reviews and is well worth checking out. Reliving all of those events from 20 years ago, I was starkly reminded of how prominently the Minnesota Twins factored into the legendary course of events, albeit as side characters. It's not the first time they've played such a supporting role in famous baseball lore of that era. In Moneyball, which depicted the 2002 season, Minnesota essentially played foil for Oakland's little-engine-that-could narrative, ending the Athletics' lengthy in-season win streak and then eliminating the A's from the playoffs. How ironic. In The Comeback, Minnesota's role is far more subservient to the narrative; they did much to pave the way for this epic showdown, and Boston's ultimate victory. Let's turn back the clock and take a closer look. Read Twins Daily's retrospective on the 2004 season from Matthew Lenz as part of our "Twins in the 2000s" series. Big Papi Becomes a Postseason Icon David Ortiz was the biggest hero in Boston's improbable '04 postseason run, so naturally he is featured as an interviewee in the documentary. The painful circumstances of his winding up in Boston are discussed: Ortiz came up as a promising power hitter in Minnesota's system, and was coming off a 20-homer season when the Twins -- who never seemed to quite fully believe -- non-tendered him at age 26. In The Comeback, Ortiz speaks of his dejection and frustration with the experience, which helped fuel his rise to greatness. Needless to say, it is one of the most maligned missteps in the history of the Twins franchise. A colossal mistake by Terry Ryan and the front office, no doubt. But what tends to get overlooked is that Minnesota was far from alone in undervaluing Ortiz, who'd been hampered by a wrist injury. After his release from the Twins in 2002, he struggled to find a new landing spot. In the documentary, inner-circle Hall of Fame pitcher Pedro Martinez shares an anecdote about running into Ortiz at a restaurant down in the Dominican Republic that offseason, and immediately calling and lobbying Boston's front office to sign him. "We need to sign him," Martinez recalls telling the team's traveling secretary. "This guy is going to be special. Get Theo [Epstein] on the phone.” The Red Sox signed Ortiz for $1.25 million shortly thereafter and the rest is history. He emerged as a major slugging threat in 2003 and then solidified his stardom in 2004, with an All-Star 40-HR season and a playoff showing for the ages that saw him bat .373 with five home runs and 19 RBIs in 14 games. He was ALCS MVP, delivering some of the most devastating blows that iconic Yankees group after absorbed in October. For Minnesota sports fans, it was bittersweet watching Ortiz blossom on the big stage in Beantown. The feelings would be similar a few years later when Randy Moss was featuring on the 16-0 Patriots, and Kevin Garnett on the championship Celtics. Boston enjoyed the greatest collective pro sports run of my lifetime, and Minnesota served as a key pipeline to their success. I'm not sure if it makes me feel more proud or petty. The Cross-Dugout Doug Mientkiewicz Trade One reason the Twins soured on Ortiz around 2002 is because they became enamored with Mientkiewicz and what he brought to the table. The organization had initially tried bringing Ortiz along as a first baseman before giving up on that notion and relegating him mostly to designated hitter. Mientkiewicz came along in the late '90s as an elite defender at first, and with a disciplined plate approach and controlled swing at the plate. He had a few truly excellent seasons for the Twins. By the time that the trade deadline rolled around in 2004, though, Mientkiewicz had been made expendable to the Twins by the emergence of top prospect Justin Morneau, who was obliterating Triple-A and ready for the majors. The Red Sox, as covered in The Comeback, were lagging behind New York in the standings and viewed their defense as a clear limiting weakness. Boston was in Minnesota playing the Twins on the day of the deadline, July 31st. Hours before game time, both were teams were involved in a complex four-way trade that sent Mientkiewicz to the Red Sox, alongside fellow Gold Glover and future Twins trade deadline acquisition Orlando Cabrera. Mientkiewicz simply switched dugouts and uniforms, starting at first for Boston that very day. He didn't hit much the rest of the way but it's fair to say his glove made an impact for the Red Sox in their charmed run. He later infamously caught the final out of the World Series for Boston and then refused to give it up. Yankees Vanquish Twins in 2004 ALDS In another universe, it might've been the Twins facing off against the Red Sox in that fateful 2004 ALCS. The Yankees needed to get past Minnesota in order to secure a semifinals rematch against Boston. While there have been plenty of lopsided Twins/Yankees playoff series over the years, this wasn't one of them. It was a battle that could have easily gone the other way. Johan Santana, fresh off a breakthrough Cy Young season, got the ball in Game 1 and shut the Yankees down to put Minnesota up 1-0 in the series. Game 2 went into extra innings; Torii Hunter gave the Twins a 6-5 lead in the top of the 12th before a gassed Joe Nathan gave up the game in the bottom half. Minnesota was two outs away from bringing a 2-0 lead back to the Metrodome, with another Johan start in their pocket. Instead, they dropped three straight and sparked the longest postseason losing streak in American sports history. This series wasn't covered much in The Comeback, which focuses mostly on Boston, but there is some footage of Yankees players celebrating their ALDS victory in the bowels of the Metrodome and it hurt. Maybe one day the prolonged postseason curse we've lived through since then will be subject of its own documentary, with a happy ending that is yet to be written. Have you watched The Comeback? Did watching it, or reading this article, spark any memories of the 2004 Twins season? Feel free to reminisce in the comments.
-
Limited in their ability to add externally this offseason, the Minnesota Twins will inevitably be pressed to rely on reinforcements from within to drive their improvement next year. Here's why that isn't such an unwelcoming proposition. Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge (Luke Keaschall) and Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints (Marco Raya) Generally speaking, it is unwise to expect prospects to arrive in the major leagues and be immediately effective. That goes without saying. We have seen plenty of highly touted talents flounder in their first exposure to the majors, with Brooks Lee serving as the latest example. Finding one's stride in the big leagues can take a while, and sometimes it never happens. But sometimes, it happens immediately, and the impact can be profound. In looking back at some of the most successful Twins seasons of the recent past, you can almost always find one rookie fresh out of the minors who took the league by storm and provided the team with a massive, game-changing jolt. Last year it was Edouard Julien. In 2019 it was Luis Arraez. Looking back a little further: Miguel Sano (2015), Danny Valencia (2010), Denard Span (2008) and Francisco Liriano (2006) all come to mind as rookies who dramatically changed the fortunes of their teams for the better. The 2025 Twins are going to need a spark like that, and maybe more than one. The good news is that, in addition to a hopeful sophomore turnaround from Lee, there are also a handful of prospects in the high minors who have yet to debut but could very well do so next year if healthy. Any one of these four players is absolutely capable of delivering an impact on the level of the names we just mentioned. Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF I wrote recently that Rodriguez is coming in hot following another season of phenomenal performance in the minors, which saw him finish in Triple-A rated as a top-30 prospect in baseball. He's one of the most intriguing, high-upside bats in any system, with a combination of patience and power that is rarely seen. He recently underwent surgery (a "cleanup procedure") to address the thumb injury that repeatedly sidelined him this past season, and should be a full go for spring training. "He’s such a unique profile,” Derek Falvey recently told Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune. “It’s almost impossible to look at that profile and say how it’s going to translate to the big leagues because no one else has it. He’s very, very unique and he’s so young, he’s still growing and still getting better ... I’m excited about next spring training because I’m looking forward to a healthy version with a little bit more experience.” A left-handed hitter, Rodriguez can play all three outfield spots, including center. As Falvey alludes, his extreme skill set makes it difficult to project his MLB performance confidently, even by the already volatile standard of any rookie debuting in the majors. But if it clicks quickly, Rodriguez could legitimately be the best hitter in the lineup, next year and for many that follow. Luke Keaschall, 2B Since being drafted in the second round in 2023, Keaschall has carved through the minors, ascending to Double-A this year while accumulating a .300/.419/.482 slash line through 133 games as a pro. Like Rodriguez, he ranks in the Top 100 on MLB Pipeline's global prospect list, checking in at No. 63. Like Rodriguez, he finished the year on the injured list. The Twins shut down Keaschall, who was playing through a known elbow ligament injury, in August to have him undergo Tommy John surgery, with an eye on a full recovery leading up to next spring. As long as he can get back to where he was at the plate, Keaschall will become an immediate factor in Minnesota's plans. His right-handed bat could be a critical addition for the Twins, who badly need to upgrade over what they received from the likes of Kyle Farmer and Manuel Margot this season. Marco Raya, RHP In some ways, Raya was brought along very slowly and cautiously. He didn't make an official appearance until the third year after he was drafted, and his workload has been carefully managed. But in other ways, the Twins have been very aggressive, pushing him through levels quickly to the point where he finished this year with a start at Triple-A. Even with the pitch-count reins loosened somewhat, Raya still threw only 98 innings in 25 starts. It's difficult to envision him stepping into a rotation role as a starter facing lineups multiple times, but I could definitely see him an as a weapon in a multi-inning bullpen role, which I've always wondered if the Twins were grooming him for. Raya will be added to the 40-man roster this offseason to avoid eligibility for the Rule 5 draft. Connor Prielipp, LHP Prielipp has lost so, so much time to injury. He was limited to just 28 innings at Alabama, causing him to fall from the top of the first round to the top of the second, where Minnesota selected him in 2022. And arm injuries have limited him to just 30 total innings in two years since being drafted. But few would question Prielipp is capable of if healthy. The hope is that his latest elbow surgery will prove to be a permanent fix for Prielipp's perpetual health woes. He sure looked healthy in his return to action this year, striking out 41 in 23 innings for a 45% K-rate across nine appearances, most of them at High-A Cedar Rapids. Prielipp turns 24 this offseason and has barely pitched professionally. The idea of developing him as a starter feels far-fetched at this point. However, if the Twins commit to him as a reliever, he's got the stuff to enter the big-league picture very quickly. And as it happens, left-handed relief help is one of the clearest and most urgent needs on the roster. View full article
- 25 replies
-
- emmanuel rodriguez
- luke keaschall
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
These 4 Twins Prospects Could Have Game-Changing MLB Debuts in 2025
Nick Nelson posted an article in Minor Leagues
Generally speaking, it is unwise to expect prospects to arrive in the major leagues and be immediately effective. That goes without saying. We have seen plenty of highly touted talents flounder in their first exposure to the majors, with Brooks Lee serving as the latest example. Finding one's stride in the big leagues can take a while, and sometimes it never happens. But sometimes, it happens immediately, and the impact can be profound. In looking back at some of the most successful Twins seasons of the recent past, you can almost always find one rookie fresh out of the minors who took the league by storm and provided the team with a massive, game-changing jolt. Last year it was Edouard Julien. In 2019 it was Luis Arraez. Looking back a little further: Miguel Sano (2015), Danny Valencia (2010), Denard Span (2008) and Francisco Liriano (2006) all come to mind as rookies who dramatically changed the fortunes of their teams for the better. The 2025 Twins are going to need a spark like that, and maybe more than one. The good news is that, in addition to a hopeful sophomore turnaround from Lee, there are also a handful of prospects in the high minors who have yet to debut but could very well do so next year if healthy. Any one of these four players is absolutely capable of delivering an impact on the level of the names we just mentioned. Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF I wrote recently that Rodriguez is coming in hot following another season of phenomenal performance in the minors, which saw him finish in Triple-A rated as a top-30 prospect in baseball. He's one of the most intriguing, high-upside bats in any system, with a combination of patience and power that is rarely seen. He recently underwent surgery (a "cleanup procedure") to address the thumb injury that repeatedly sidelined him this past season, and should be a full go for spring training. "He’s such a unique profile,” Derek Falvey recently told Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune. “It’s almost impossible to look at that profile and say how it’s going to translate to the big leagues because no one else has it. He’s very, very unique and he’s so young, he’s still growing and still getting better ... I’m excited about next spring training because I’m looking forward to a healthy version with a little bit more experience.” A left-handed hitter, Rodriguez can play all three outfield spots, including center. As Falvey alludes, his extreme skill set makes it difficult to project his MLB performance confidently, even by the already volatile standard of any rookie debuting in the majors. But if it clicks quickly, Rodriguez could legitimately be the best hitter in the lineup, next year and for many that follow. Luke Keaschall, 2B Since being drafted in the second round in 2023, Keaschall has carved through the minors, ascending to Double-A this year while accumulating a .300/.419/.482 slash line through 133 games as a pro. Like Rodriguez, he ranks in the Top 100 on MLB Pipeline's global prospect list, checking in at No. 63. Like Rodriguez, he finished the year on the injured list. The Twins shut down Keaschall, who was playing through a known elbow ligament injury, in August to have him undergo Tommy John surgery, with an eye on a full recovery leading up to next spring. As long as he can get back to where he was at the plate, Keaschall will become an immediate factor in Minnesota's plans. His right-handed bat could be a critical addition for the Twins, who badly need to upgrade over what they received from the likes of Kyle Farmer and Manuel Margot this season. Marco Raya, RHP In some ways, Raya was brought along very slowly and cautiously. He didn't make an official appearance until the third year after he was drafted, and his workload has been carefully managed. But in other ways, the Twins have been very aggressive, pushing him through levels quickly to the point where he finished this year with a start at Triple-A. Even with the pitch-count reins loosened somewhat, Raya still threw only 98 innings in 25 starts. It's difficult to envision him stepping into a rotation role as a starter facing lineups multiple times, but I could definitely see him an as a weapon in a multi-inning bullpen role, which I've always wondered if the Twins were grooming him for. Raya will be added to the 40-man roster this offseason to avoid eligibility for the Rule 5 draft. Connor Prielipp, LHP Prielipp has lost so, so much time to injury. He was limited to just 28 innings at Alabama, causing him to fall from the top of the first round to the top of the second, where Minnesota selected him in 2022. And arm injuries have limited him to just 30 total innings in two years since being drafted. But few would question Prielipp is capable of if healthy. The hope is that his latest elbow surgery will prove to be a permanent fix for Prielipp's perpetual health woes. He sure looked healthy in his return to action this year, striking out 41 in 23 innings for a 45% K-rate across nine appearances, most of them at High-A Cedar Rapids. Prielipp turns 24 this offseason and has barely pitched professionally. The idea of developing him as a starter feels far-fetched at this point. However, if the Twins commit to him as a reliever, he's got the stuff to enter the big-league picture very quickly. And as it happens, left-handed relief help is one of the clearest and most urgent needs on the roster.- 25 comments
-
- emmanuel rodriguez
- luke keaschall
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
The flip side of this is that they were in position to make the playoffs in 3 of those past 4 seasons before stunning (fluky?) collapses in the final stretch in two. That actually kind of does seem like an endorsement since, as mentioned, the "momentum" from that collapse doesn't carry forward. The quality of the team and its talent does though.
- 30 replies
-
- carlos correa
- royce lewis
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:
-
It's very easy to get caught up in the dejection of a terrible late-season collapse and an offseason that promises to be underwhelming. But Twins fans shouldn't lose sight of the quality pieces in place for this team. Minnesota will be a contender in 2025. Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports If you're feeling down about the Minnesota Twins, you're not alone. The latest season ended in bitter disappointment, and a long winter lies ahead filled with difficult decisions stemming from frustrating payroll constraints. It's difficult to envision the Twins getting a whole lot better on paper when they've already signaled no intent to raise payroll. Merely keeping together their existing talent will be a tall task. Vibes are not generally positive. Here on the site I've found myself covering a lot of downer topics recently, from the back concerns facing Brooks Lee and Jose Miranda to somber reflections on Alex Kirilloff's shortened career. It's time to pivot to a fresh perspective with a reminder that the Twins find themselves in a situation that is far from hopeless. In fact, there are a number of reasons to feel pretty good about the team's outlook, even if the offseason proves to be as unexciting as expected. A Contending Talent Baseline “We really had a tough run over the last six weeks and didn’t play as well as we could have and that’s on us,” Derek Falvey told Bobby Nightengale Jr. of the Star Tribune at the GM Meetings. “We’ve had to do some deep dives and a lot of deep introspection with frustration around that. But we feel like that core is still there from ‘23, even the core that held us up for a good chunk of last year. I’m confident that core from last year can get us back to where we need as related to next year.” Falvey's not just blowing hot air. According to projections from FanGraphs, based on players currently in organizations, the Twins are favored to top the AL Central next year with a .520 winning percentage. They have, by one measure, the fourth-best roster in the American League heading into the offseason. That might not be terribly meaningful, because it's likely that division rivals (especially Detroit and Kansas City) will be active in improving this offseason while the Twins mostly stand pat. But it is a more objective reminder that the Twins retain plenty of proven high-caliber talent. With minor changes, this is still the same core that won the division and advanced in the playoffs in 2023. The same group that boasted the best record in baseball over a four-month span in 2024. Yes, everyone slumped simultaneously down the stretch and it was brutal to watch, but there's little reason to think that will carry forward. Because: Year-to-Year Momentum Doesn't Exist in Baseball It's debatable whether team momentum exists within a baseball season. Many sabermetric types will say no; I find that hard to fully accept after watching this year's Twins team click on all cylinders during prolonged hot streaks and then collectively go in the tank as their season-ending struggles snowballed. But when you zoom out, there is just no reason to believe momentum exists on a year-to-year basis for MLB teams. Evidence in recent Minnesota Twins history certainly argues against it. In 2016, the Twins experienced an utterly disastrous season where everything went wrong -- a "total system failure." The next year they improved by 26 wins and reached the postseason. In 2018, the Twins finished below .500, a disappointing drop-off that got Paul Molitor dismissed as manager. In 2019 they went 101-61, winning the Central behind a 23-win improvement. In 2022, the Twins collapsed in similar fashion to what we just now witnessed. They went 11-22 in September/October to fumble away a division lead they held for most of the season. As bad of a finish as you could imagine. The next year, they rebounded to win the Central with ease and then took their first postseason series in almost 20 years. So yeah, the 2024 Twins ended on a sour note. Does it matter going forward? Not really. And I'd argue that same thing goes the other way for, say, Detroit's season-ending scorcher. Young Players Follow Volatile and Unpredictable Development Paths In looking back at some of the past examples we just covered, especially the turnaround from 2016 to 2017, one thing that stands out to me is how fluctuations in performance from developing young players influenced the highs and lows. Worth keeping in mind as we evaluate a 2025 Twins team whose fate will largely be dictated by impressive talents at similar stages. Among the reasons Minnesota flopped in 2016: Miguel Sanó and Eddie Rosario both took big steps backward following impressive rookie campaigns. Top pitching prospect José Berríos floundered in his MLB debut, posting an 8.02 ERA over 14 starts despite flashing impressive stuff at times. In 2017, Sanó and Rosario were both monsters at the plate, driving much of the team's offensive improvement, and Berríos instantly turned the corner to become a frontline starter. I think about these examples as I weigh the outlooks of hitters like Edouard Julien and Lee, or pitchers like David Festa and Zebby Matthews. They weren't necessarily good this year, but they are talented players. Oftentimes it turns on a dime for skilled guys in the 24-to-27 age range. The Stars Seem to Be Aligned The core nucleus of the Twins, and the reason they cannot be discounted as championship contenders, comprises these four players: Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis and Pablo López. Appraisals may vary on these four at the moment but from my view they remain clearly the best and highest-upside players on the team. They will also combine to account for more than half the payroll next year, so much hinges on them all delivering on their promise to some extent. We didn't get full, representative seasons from any of them in 2024. Correa lost half the year to injury. Buxton missed two months of games. Lewis experienced a staggering second-half slump from which he never emerged. López pitched to an average-ish ERA overall. But we absolutely saw the signs of greatness from all four, and each one seems potentially primed for big things in 2025. While you'd be hard-pressed to call Correa or Buxton free of health concerns, each one finished the year playing and producing. Buxton looked forward to a normal offseason free of his usual rehab regimen. Correa has a full three months to treat and resolve his plantar fasciitis, which he successfully overcame in the other foot last winter. When on the field in 2024, Buxton performed like an All-Star and Correa performed like an MVP. Lewis's deep slump in August and September was obviously alarming, but you can't talk about the .496 OPS in his last 41 games without talking about the 1.000 OPS in his first 41 games. Not to mention what he did the previous season and in October. While he might have been physically drained, Lewis ended the year healthy and something tells me he'll be determined to emphatically get back to where he was. As for López, he was not amazing but he was good -- phenomenal at times -- and (importantly) healthy all year long. Per fWAR, he's a top 10 pitcher in the major leagues over the past two seasons. He's an ace. I don't really harbor any substantial doubts or concerns about him. So you take those four, and then you factor in the surrounding talent, and it's really not difficult at all to foresee a very good or even downright dominant Twins team in 2025, springing merely from the foundation that they already have in place. With this in mind, and understanding their resource limitations, a few savvy moves on the fringes from the front office this winter could go a long way. View full article
- 30 replies
-
- carlos correa
- royce lewis
-
(and 2 more)
Tagged with:

