Nashvilletwin

Those were strong trades - love Ryan and Gray has produced. You are correct. But I’m not willing to take a hit or miss approach with an all star on a low priced contract and several years of control and lots of improvement ahead of him. Cruz and Berrios (unsignable and overrated) were one thing - Arraez is another in my book. If we move Arraez, it better be for more certainty than Ryan was at the time of his acquisition or Mahle who has not proven to date, and may or may not ever prove, his value.

Yep - I was wrong. Turner dropped today. Two of the others were pitchers and Abreu is a two year deal - so those weren’t really in my thinking. But Turner certainly was.

I’m sure we can find an oft injured, not likely to contribute much, and/or likely to deteriorate in performance upon acquisition starter or reliever for Arraez - the AL batting champ, our best situational hitter by a mile, better than average fielding first baseman, capable of playing multiple positions if needed, including 2B, 3B, corner OF and DH, and plays with a huge heart. No chance I trust this FO not to screw this up after the last several pitching trade disasters.

Great insights - if I may embellish. 1. The market for CC is probably pretty deep and the Twins are not necessarily the likeliest highest bidder (which, btw, is not necessarily the same thing as the preferred destination). So there is not much downside to Boras/CC if the Twins set a deadline, the deadline is rejected, and Twins are publicly out. 2. You are correct - nothing happens at the top of the market until Judge signs. Buyers and sellers are waiting to see what kind of ammo that gives to their arguments. 3. You are correct - even if the Twins are publicly out, nothing prevents them from jumping back in later. I’ve seen it a lot. But, generally speaking, that strategy causes the bidder to lose leverage (i.e. “What? You want back in? Now? We thought you were out. Well, we are way down the road with others - mentally and contactually. So, if you want back in, you are going to have to move fast and pay up”) in the process unless something extraordinary happens (i.e. it becomes known that the bidder and seller are really the only two left at the table). Unless, the Twins employ the strategy you recommended: make offers to multiple players at which you are fairly indifferent. Essentially FBI - first ball in. Then, you go back to your preferred choice with a final shot. 4. It’s actually a very complicated and dynamic situation - made more so by Boras representing both of the Twins most likely SS targets. Not that he cares, but the potential for conflicts of interest for Boras are very high. Btw, that might on the margin help the Twins. 5. Farmer was a great sign - provides a legitimate pivot strategy (i.e. temporary competitive rebuild while waiting for Lewis and Lee), but it really doesn’t impart that much leverage in the discussions until maybe the SS market gets near the end. 6. Oh, also, forget Rodon - DeGrom blew that possibility right out of the water,

Really it’s just a question of when, not if. And that’s no knock on Polanco - he’s a really good professional baseball player and absolutely one of my favourite Twins. But the facts are: a) He plays on a mid-market, budget-constrained team that will need cash to fill in the holes via FAs; b) The Twins top three prospects (Lewis, Lee and Julien) plus two top youngsters already on the club (Arraez and Miranda) are all infielders needing a place to play - and this traffic jam is compounded by signing Farmer and if we resign CC; and c) His performance - perhaps all or mostly all due to health - is clearly starting to diminish and it’s unclear if that slide can be turned around. Having said all that, Polanco clearly has chemistry with CC (which may help on the margin in resigning CC), he has been really good in the field and at the plate when healthy, the young guys still need seasoning/proving/healing, and he’s a true pro with veteran presence who’s not that expensive. Prediction: Polanco is not traded in the off-season. The Twins resign CC and give Polanco every chance to get back into form. However, if the Twins are not definitively in the hunt by the trade deadline (almost regardless of how Polanco is performing), the prospects are knocking hard at the door, or he’s not very good anymore, he gets moved in the summer. The chances of Polanco being with the Twins in ‘24 are slim. The sad truth is that the old young core we were hoping would lead us to a WS a couple of years ago - Sano, Kepler, Polanco, Berrios, and, even, Garver - are now, rightfully, having to give way to a new, deeper, and possibly/hopefully better young core. Kepler and Polanco are the last two and both, unless something extraordinary happens, will be gone before next season,

Wells was a much bigger loss than Baddoo.

At the moment, Gordon is our must trustworthy OF player. He got his chance, made the most of it, and has earned the right to plenty of innings - certainly over Celestino and others. Gordon can hit plenty decently for average and with some pop, plus he’s strong defensively with range, glove and arm. He’s also a catalyst with his energy and speed. There is also no reason to expect Gordon has plateaued - he still has plenty of room to improve if he stays focused, disciplined and committed to being the best pro he can be. At worst, he’s the fourth OF playing 4-5 times a week (3 of those in CF spelling BB). At best, he’s an everyday starter at a corner position and Center when BB is DHing, resting, or injured. He could be a real gem….

I’ll take 140 innings and a sub 4.00 ERA right now and be perfectly happy. There will be some days when he is superb and a few clunkers for sure. But that would be a great season from Mahle. Anything better than that is gravy; however, if pressed, I’d probably bet the under. Seriously, given the arm issues late last season, should we realistically expect any more than that through the course of an entire season? Hopefully that type of season will not qualify as the Twins 2023 “Ace” - Ryan, and both Gray and Maeda if healthy, should outperform that.

Maybe I’m just a worrier. But I’m worried about all four aspects of the 2023 Twins - and, if we sign Correa, the position player lineup is the least of those worries. In order: 1. Starting staff - sorry, but we have two decent starters on whom we can reasonably rely (and one of them, Gray, should not be expected to be healthy throughout the season). Might be able to get through the year on depth, but a true inning eating #3 would be a huge hedge on Mahle, Maeda, and Ober. 2. Relief staff - Four or five fairly reliable one inning guys. Lopez is a big if. With a two times through the order starter strategy, our depth needs augmenting by at least two/three solid additions. 3. Coaching staff - Rocco has not proven he and his staff can develop young talent or keep the players on the field. In addition, his in game decision making needs to be a net 5 wins vs. a net 5 losses over the season (can’t back up that stat with data, but it feels like about that). 4. Sign Correa and a catcher - no worries then.

It’s an interesting bidding situation. On one hand you have four sellers. If there are five or more buyers willing to purchase any of the four (even not necessarily at the same price), and it appears there are, then it most likely will maximise the value of the last seller to wait until the end. From a buyer’s perspective, you may want to overpay slightly early in the process so as to avoid having to overpay if it appears you may get shut out in the musical chairs at the end (and particularly if you are marginally more budget conscious than the other bidders), It behooves the Twins to slightly over pay early in the process for their top target. For Boras, he very possibly may find himself in a conflicted situation in that the interests of each of his clients are not necessarily aligned - not that he cares, However, if one, on the margin, would prefer one buyer over the others, his best strategy as the agent for two sellers is to get one deal done early at a slight over pay with the seller with a preference and then build greater value as the sellers diminish for his second client.

Innings Pitched by Starter Projection - Most to Least Ryan (solid, healthy season upcoming) FA/Trade (we need an innings eater SP) Gray (solid season with one or two IL stints) Maeda (gets ramped up but he’s had his surgery) Ober (in and out as the #5) Mahle (oft injured - very sad) Winder (spot starter out of the pen) Varland (call up starter) SWR (call up starter) Paddack. (DNP)

I’m actually way more worried about Mahle than Maeda; Kenta has had his surgery. Sorry to be Debbie Downer, but in terms of innings pitched in 2023, there is a strong chance Maeda>Mahle. Winder, Varland and SWR need their chance this year. And they will get it. But none of those young guys is an every fifth day guy looking at 30+ starts. In fact, only Gray and Ryan out of our pencilled in starting five (with Mahle, Maeda and Ober) could be expected to play that role and Gray really doesn’t have the history. Therefore, 1. Maeda is absolutely a starter until a) the rotation proves it’s durability and/or b) Kenta doesn’t perform; and 2. the Twins absolutely need to add a durable, inning eating #2-4 SP.

Hope Mahle gets healthy and contributes - CES and Steer was a big price. Even if both of them were blocked and/or had a hole in their games, the return for those two needs to produce.

Couldn’t agree more. C’s ideal, B works, A is we are looking to 2024.

No doubt - not even close. Marshall was very good for a long, long time. I was only referring to the rationalisation for getting hit.

Great post.

A lockdown pen, given our “two times through the order” starter strategy and one dimensional, low run scoring offense is a must if we even remotely want to contend. I’ve got the under on Pagan being a key part of a lockdown pen. The argument for Pagan reminds me a bit of the old Mike Marshall days. He’d blow a save and his pedantic response was usually ‘Hey, he hit a quality pitch”. Yeah, a quality pitch that cost us the game. Pagan sounds like the new Mike Marshall except Pagan fortunately doesn’t get 90 appearances in a season.

Nothing is better than Gilligan’s Island reruns……

The “M” hates are horrible. Just flat out horrible. I’m just trying to imagine Pagan wearing one - what a nightmare that is. Buxton looks like a stud in the Twin Cities uni. I think that will be a best seller and a smart move by the club.

Just saw that the FO had Polanco modelling the new uniforms alongside Miranda, Buxton, Arraez, and Ryan. Polanco stays until the deadline.

Two down (Sano and Urshela) and one more (Kepler) and possible another (Polanco) to go. Cleaning house, redeploying cash, and making room for young players. Things are just starting…..

100% expected. Had them tendering all eight, so the trade of Urshela was the only mild surprise. Four of the tendered players were pitchers the Twins acquired in trades. For each, some of the “value” was the tender option so that each could be on the club through at least 2023. So the FO doubles down on their trades even though all four have been major disappointments to date. We shall see if any of them meaningfully contribute to the Twins. I’m pulling for each of them - but, to be honest, I’ve got the under on all four. Hope I’m wrong.

Good creative thoughts and ideas, Keep in mind, in four years $40MM now will only be worth about $25MM in “cost” to the Twins given inflation and revenue expansion. We could just keep it simple too - 8 years @ $40MM/yr with a player opt out after year 3. By then Lee, Lewis or Miller will be the new Correa and we will have won at least two WS anyway….

Love most of this. You could/should move Polanco as well. But there is no way I’m trading Brooks Lee. That kid has “it”. Lee falling to us might just end up like JJ falling to the Vikes.

Sometimes fate just hands you an unexpected treasure. There is no way Justin Jefferson should have fallen to the Vikings at #22 in the 2020 draft. Just like Lee shouldn’t have fallen to the Twins in last year’s draft. Maybe Lee is the Twins’ JJ……..just have a feeling about it,