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TwinsDr2021

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Everything posted by TwinsDr2021

  1. TwinsDr2021
    So if Pressly pitches close to the way he does in Houston, The Twins win 100 hundred plus games and offer him 20.4 million over 3 years (contract the Astros gave him) he says no? (because Houston or Texas might come calling?) , or are you saying the Twins wouldn't have offered him that? Both say more about the Twins and their organization than it does about Pressly.
  2. TwinsDr2021
    So you are saying the Astros got just over a year an half of an allstar for 3 years of two minor league performances? That is makes the Twins look worse as of today.
  3. TwinsDr2021
    I like to think of it as, what would you give up for Royce Lewis if he was on a different team. I know what I would have given for him as dropped quite a bit the last few years. Would you give up Garver for him now if say Lewis was a Marlin? Would you give up Ryan or any of the other top prospects? I don't if I know if I would consider him a headliner anymore in a deal? He has a lot prove this year IMO if he doesn't want to go the way Gordon went.
  4. TwinsDr2021
    hmm, Ok, we are going to pretend the Twins didn't trade a future two time all star pitcher (so far). and we are going to pretend Alcala in 2020 was so good the Twins put him position exactly once to save or hold a game and he blew it? or in 2021 he failed to hold or save 25% of his opportunities. But he was in the pen for two years. don't mind that he was replacement level at best, the Twins picked up Juan Minaya (just one example) off the scrap heap and he out performed Alcala last year as just one example. (On top of the 40 man rosters spots these two players have taken up) You can make all the assumptions you want, I will take what has actually happened and compare at this moment. If you want to argue that Twins couldn't have afforded the extension he signed or that he hasn't lived up to the extension, feel free, I mean it would be foolish but at least it would be an discussion on something that has actually happened. If you want to argue there is no way the Twins would have gotten Pressly to pitch as well as he has, well than that might explain Alcala issues so far. Trading veterans for prospects is always based on hope and promise, and almost always it takes a few years for the trade to pan out (unless you are trading a terrible player for prospects then the trade can work out well right away and even better in the future) and as of 1/21/22 the Twins have gotten little to nothing out of the trade, doesn't mean that this was a bad trade yet or the wrong move at the time, it just means if the Twins want to have it turn out for them they are going to have to start seeing some good results at the major league level.
  5. TwinsDr2021
    Well either I don't write well or you just refuse to understand. Where have I said it was a bad trade? I have said repeatedly at this point they have lost the trade, and I believe at some point the trade will look good, but it hasn't yet. And to continue down the investment path is pointless. Your comparison with Shields and Tatis makes less sense than anything else you have said. The Padres traded away an overpaid and not all that good starter, who went on to produces .1 WAR for the Sox over three years (-.1.9, .3, 1.7) so basically getting any return for a negative WAR pitcher that was paid over 30 million by the Sox is a win for the Padres. At the same time Shields was terrible Tatis moved up into the top 10 overall prospect rankings, but even if Tatis never turned out to be anything the Padres won this trade. But the Twins didn't trade away a terrible overpaid starting pitcher, they traded away a really good cheap relief pitcher that would go onto two all star games (at least) and help his team to two of the last three world series and signed a pretty good extension for both the player and team. In year 4 the Padres got 4.2 WAR from Tatis and like I said the Sox ended up with .1 WAR, so maybe you are making the Twins even look worse by such a comparison.
  6. TwinsDr2021
    This makes no sense, if Alcala was actually good in 2020 and really good in 2021, with the expectation of being at the top of the rotation in 2202, or Celestino came up last year and played above replacement level, you couldn't take what has actually happened into account? and you could only use forecasting on the next 4 years of the trade? That is complete BS, you and everybody else (including me) would be saying how great of trade this was Twins, and what a great job this FO did with that asset, but instead you and others want to run cover for the poor lowly twins because they haven't gotten a darn thing out of the asset yet. And your stock analogy also makes no sense, if you sold Microsoft stock while is was going up to buy a start up, and it took 5 years to return, yes year 4 would be bad. You could have held onto Microsoft longer and waited to sell and invest in the future amazon at a later date, you OC would be high doing it your way and your ROI would be lower.
  7. TwinsDr2021
    I am confused on how at this point and time you can say it is a no brainer good trade? The Twins have literally gotten next to nothing in the majors and the Houston got a two time all star. It sure looks like the Twins will start getting some real contribution from the trade this year and hopefully years beyond, but that hasn't happened. Can you believe it was a good trade and still say at this point the Twins lost the trade, absolutely. I thought at the time it was a the right move, I still think it was probably the right move but at this point I can also say the Twins have absolutely lost this trade. Until hope and promise turn out, that is all it is hope and promise.
  8. TwinsDr2021
    So are you saying they would or wouldn't have signed Pressly? I am confused, sorry.
  9. TwinsDr2021
    How is that a safer assumption? the Twins would have been coming off a 100 win season and he would have been the stud relief pitcher. and I assume you meant stats in your last sentence, and that makes zero sense, You don't win trades with hope and promise, you win them with results, and as of now the Twins have gotten little to none in the return of results, now I have said it over and over, the Twins still have a good chance of winning this trade, but as of today they haven't.
  10. TwinsDr2021
    If Alcala becomes the guy you hope he becomes and the Twins are winning at a high level, then the Twins overwhelming win this trade and the FO looks like geniuses. Now I believe there is zero chance he becomes a 100-120 inning pitcher, there is probably a decent chance he becomes a 50 - 80 inning solid or better relief pitcher. (I also don't believe the players union is going to allow pitchers in their prime to be long relief pitchers and giving up millions of dollars until they fail as starters)
  11. TwinsDr2021
    isn't it an assumption they wouldn't have signed him? Maybe they trade him at the deadline for even better prospects the next year, Isn't everything an assumption at this point, other than what has happened? What we know is that the Houston has been in 2 of the last three world series and they resigned Pressly (see stats in my previous post) and the two prospects they Twins got haven't done anything (minus 20 good innings in a lost season with zero pressure). At this point the Twins lost this trade and it isn't even close, but the Twins have control over the prospects for a few more years and there is time for the Twins not to look horrible and even look great on this trade. But for the first three plus years the have came out on the losing end.
  12. TwinsDr2021
    It is crazy to think how many players that are good enough to be major league players, but are stuck in High A or AA because of the philosophy that is how it has to go? The Tigers got 2.1 WAR from Baddoo, and the Twins would have gotten a high A player maybe a AA player, not because they are so loaded in the outfield but just because.
  13. TwinsDr2021
    What would TB do, they would trade him, so I am against extending him. ?
  14. TwinsDr2021
    History says Alcala likely won't be dominant, doesn't mean it won't happen. Also the last 20 innings or so he pitched when he was pretty much lights out more than half of those innings were against terrible, terrible teams, Det, KC, Cubs, Actually if you only look at his stats all year against terrible teams, he was pretty dominant the whole season, it was really how terrible he pitched against the CHW that end up making his numbers not look really good for the whole year. You are correct nobody knows that happens with the twins in 2019 with Pressly, maybe with him they win two more games and start at home, maybe without Pressley the Astros don't win 107 and the twins end up with home field though out. At this point IMO it isn't even close how the Twins did with this trade, they have gotten destroyed, that doesn't mean at the end of this the Twins can't or won't win this trade, but as of today it is not even close. The Twins have gotten 85.1 innings, 1 save, 11 holds, and 5 blow saves, and an embarrassing 23 games by Celestino. Houston has been in 2 of the last 3 world series, Pressly has been an all start twice. pitched 162 inning with 43 saves, 45 holds and 13 blown saves. To good thing for the Twins is they traded away a relief pitcher, so if Celestino ends up being a starting MLB outfielder for a few years, the Twins will more than likely win this trade based on WAR no problem.
  15. TwinsDr2021
    100% agree, without Arraez I don't see depth anywhere except maybe catcher. Since 2016 AK has played 340 games, At this point Laranch and Celestino shouldn't be counted on (Rooker?), and Miranda has never played a major league game. Lewis hasn't played in 2 years and had a .649 OPS in AA the last time he played, and Martin while having a decent enough first year certainly didn't scream skip AAA and start in the majors. To me the Twins offense depth is very similiar to their pitching depth, damn you hope most hold their own and succeed, but things could get real ugly real fast, because there really isn't anything in the pipeline after these prospects (close to being ready)
  16. TwinsDr2021
    How about Buxton, Sano, Rosario, or Buxton, Sano, Kepler, or Buxton Sano, Polanco. or Buxton, Sano, Hicks I feel like people might have forgotten the twins hitting prospects prior to this year.
  17. TwinsDr2021
    I personally believe SWR, Petty, Balazovic and maybe Steve Hajjar are too low. It usually seems that project able pitchers, that haven't proven they aren't what others hope bring the biggest returns. For example Lewis and SWR seemed like a great return at the time of the trade, but after a few months of play, it seems like a pretty good trade.
  18. TwinsDr2021
    IMO, they are going to send him out to first base almost everyday until somebody forces there hand to replace him. Hopefully he does so well that nobody can do that, or AK, Graver, Miranda force their hand by hitting lights out. Trading him before the season with no back up plan is reckless and a disservice to the team and fans. And the back up plan can't be we think AK will stay healthy and hit.
  19. TwinsDr2021
    Why does it have to be all or nothing. Why can't it be a evaluation year while still trying to be competitive? The Twins offense of predictions put them squarely in the competitive mode, so to piss that away because your trying to evaluate pitching prospects is ridiculous. Solely relying on rookie starting pitchers is going to destroy the bullpen, basically ever start the Twins will have to be prepared for the bullpen to pitch 6 plus innings. If they bring in a couple of guys that most of the time will get you to the 5th even giving up 3,4,5 runs they save the pen from be ruined by June.
  20. TwinsDr2021
    Nobody has suggested signing him to be an ace, have they? his WAR since 2015 (at age 22) are 2.5, .4, 1.8, 3.0, 6.1, 1.9. So assuming he is going to be around 2 to 3 WAR isn't out of the question, He will be 29 on April 7th, so it isn't like he is old, signing a 29 year old pitcher with a decent track record to 15 million dollar a year until they are 33 isn't a crazy idea. I will say signing pitchers like this every year probably isn't a winning strategy, but signing a pitcher like this when you only hope is prospects and there is plenty of payroll isn't a terrible idea either. Unless of course you are willing to concede another year of not good baseball, and I really don't think the Twins want that and I am sure ticker buyers don't either.
  21. TwinsDr2021
    Those are the only two options? Bring back those 3 pitchers that were terrible for the Twins last year or start the season with three minor league pitchers Duran(16 innings at AAA), SWR (53.1 innings at AA) and Balazovic (97 innings at AA) Seems like you picked two of the worst ideas for the Twins next year possible. I would prefer they bring in Duffy and/or Cueto or Pineda to start the season and ease all the prospects up.
  22. TwinsDr2021
    Again I am going to point out what the original author wrote. "It’s a commonly held maxim that 40 fWAR gives you a pretty consistent opportunity for October baseball. It’s a pretty basic tenet of roster construction." I guess IMO the original premise was putting together roster that had an opportunity to play October baseball not a roster to win the world series. So the need to prove that is how other teams got to around 40 fWAR is kind of irrelevant in my mind, based on this article. So with a offense/defense at 24.8, my simple math that puts needing a pitching staff at just over 15. with the current roster is short about 4, getting two midtier starting pitchers gets you around 40. Will that guarantee anything, not at all, but it is one view of constructing a roster that probably will compete for the playoffs. As currently constructed based on this logic, either the offense or pitching staff is going to have to really exceed expectations, how often does that happen with a dozen or so pitchers with little or no experience? (I don't know) To be fair I get your points, just not sure how they fit with this premise.
  23. TwinsDr2021
    Isn't the claim mid-tier and not top FA's? This is taken directly from the article "The Twins’ biggest mistake this offseason was not tapping into the mid-tier starting pitching free agent market, to raise the floor or the rotation. "
  24. TwinsDr2021
    what does Simmons missing 7 games have to do with this? Isn't it the FO that allowed Happ to pitch 98 innings with an ERA of 6.77, Shoemaker to pitch 60 innings with a 8.06 ERA, Jax to pitch 82 innings with a 6.37 ERA, Dobnak to pitch 50 innings with a 7.64 ERA, didn't this FO bring in Colome and Roblies? Isn't it this FO that left with twins with Cave as the back up center fielder if and when Buxton was going to get hurt? Yes the Twins suffered injuries, but isn't it the front office job to have a plan in place for injuries? As for the injuries to basically all of the pitching prospects, I don't know but was that unique to the Twins or did it happen all over baseball? (IMO, but no data to back this up, I think it might have to do with the pitching philosophy of going all out every pitch for 3-5 innings, after missing 2020 season that might have had a negative effect on these young arms, most of which hadn't pitched a ton of innings prior to 2020, compared to what somebody like Berrios had pitched in the minors. 30.2, 103.2, 140, 166.1 (some where on the same path as him, but 2020 messed that up)
  25. TwinsDr2021
    IMO the biggest mistake was the FO not giving the fans an inkling of a plan. Leaving us to speculate on what is going on, the fans that aren't fans or are skeptical of this FO complaining (with facts, predictions, history. etc..) and the fans of this FO with explaining (with facts, predictions, rationale and hope, lots and lots of hope). So coming off a couple of playoffs, followed by a season from hell, we have no real idea what is going to happen in 2022, and that IMO is the biggest mistake.
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