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TwinsDr2021

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  1. TwinsDr2021
    Thank you for the research. What this tells me is that the Twins aren't doing it like everybody else, They are doing it similiar, kind of to other but not the same. I look at it just to get to league average (if you numbers are correct) That 65 innings would be all 5 starters going 1 extra inning in 13 of their starts. But more realist would be the top 3 going an extra inning in 17 starts and the bottom two going an extra in 7 starts. So just to get to the league average, Gray and Ryan this year (assuming 45 more innings (65 * 2/3) from their starters so far this year) would need to have gone an extra inning in 15 games each, and another 15 from all the other starters. Does this really seem like the Twins are doing what everybody else is doing? And remember that is just to get to the league average. On a side note people keep talking about the 3rd time though the lineup. I posted a week or so ago that the Twins Starting pitches average around 21/22 batters faced a game and the only outlier is Archer who was around 18. That means the Twins feel their starters can face the top 3 or 4 batters on a team 3 times but not the bottom of the lineup, that seems very unfair to the starters for example if the Starters were pitching against the Twins they would be facing Buxton, Arraez and Correa three times but no the likes of Urshela, Laranch, Sano, Gordon, Celestino, Sanchez and Jeffers just to name a few. When you dig into the numbers it kind of seem people are making up stuff to run cover for the Twins and what they are doing or if the numbers are pointed out they will say injuries, rookies, pitch limits, etc is the reason. In this post I am not saying what the Twins are doing is right or wrong, but saying NO not everybody is doing what the Twins are doing, yes certain teams treat certain pitchers the same or even multiple pitchers the same but not every pitcher.
  2. TwinsDr2021
    I think this FO has done a really good job of finding prospects that make the majors or look like a for sure thing to make the majors, which is great for using those players to fill needs on the major league roster. What they have lacked it seems is the future all star type talent. This FO inherited all stars and silver sluggers all over the diamond, what they didn't inherit besides Berrios and maybe Gibson was starting pitchers. Again for the most part this FO has used minor league players to supplement that with some good trades and thus have kept this pretty competitive the whole time they have been here. What I hoped was that by now the 17, 18 and 19 draft would have produced more or maybe higher quality by now (yes Jeffers, Larnach, Winder and others have shown some promise, I get the high school kids would be still pretty young, but the college kids are getting old fast),
  3. TwinsDr2021
    They got 2 years of Gray (with the first option to extend), Just over a year of Mahle (with the first option to extend), and over 2 years of Lopez (with the first option to extend). That is close to 6 years of big league play. Going by the odds it is not very likely they other teams get over 6 years total from those guys, going into next year two the three recently traded guys will be 22, 23 and 23, not old by any means but if they aren't in the big leagues in the next year or so, they odds of them being stars aren't that great either. Don't know this to be true, but guessing in most drafts a teams first 5 picks don't usually all make the big leagues, lets hope in this case the one that doesn't make it is the one the Twins kept. You can't make these kind of trades all the time or probably even often but it also shouldn't destroy the future either doing it a couple of times here and there.
  4. TwinsDr2021
    If you DFA Pagan he would be picked up in a second. (Duffey not so much), but I believe there are not too many teams that have somebody has good as Pagan as their 5th/6th best relief pitcher (Lopez, Duran, Jax, Fulmer, Theilbar). The guy has 55 K's in 37 innings, Now I wouldn't trust him in a late pressure situation but in the 5th and 6th, I would rather have him than most anybody else.
  5. TwinsDr2021
    IMO Duran is the prime example if you have a guy with a filthy arm he doesn't need to toil in the minors trying to become a starter for years, bring them up put them in the pen and work on the secondary stuff with the major league coaches. I will assume he could throw 100 the whole time in the minors and had a pretty good curve, but not the others pitches to succeed as a starter? If he proves he can develop that third and fourth pitch stretch him out and give him a chance as a starter later on. I agree with this article the pen looks real good, I hated pagen in the 8th and 9th but as a 5th, 6th or even 7th inning pitcher he is awesome, along with the rest, now Rocco just don't burn them out ?
  6. TwinsDr2021
    To give Rocco credit (Which I never do) maybe he is talking about stretching out differently then we/I am thinking. I think of stretching out as being able to pitch more pitches in a start and in Archer's case it isn't like he is pitching that many less pitches than the other starters, it is that it takes that many more pitches per batter to get an end result. His 77 pitches were almost exactly what Gray (79), Bundy(78), Ryan(82), and Sanchez (81) pitched in the last starts. So maybe what Rocco means by saying "working on stretching out", he means Archer figuring how to better maximize his pitches to have shorter at bats and thus being able to pitch longer in games. I guess I am feeling way more positive today then normal because of the trades yesterday.
  7. TwinsDr2021
    I really hope he doesn't believe that or he doesn't believe anybody that follows Twins believe that.
  8. TwinsDr2021
    Can we all agree going forward that Archer should pitch only 4 inning no matter how good he is going and we won't complain if he is pulled after 4 even if he has a no hitter going?
  9. TwinsDr2021
    I will add if this trade comes back to haunt the Twins because Povich becomes a good/great starter and the Twins are short starters, it say more about this FO ability to develop starters than this trade.
  10. TwinsDr2021
    ?, with that being said I am good with the twins trading another prospect years out to put Robertson in the pen this year and if he is good sign him to a cheap deal next year.
  11. TwinsDr2021
    Dyson started one game in the majors in 2013 and pitched in 376 total games.
  12. TwinsDr2021
    I am guessing there is little to no chance is in the majors next year. He has a ERA of 5.38 in high A, he will be 23 when next season starts and is averaging less than 5 innings per start.
  13. TwinsDr2021
    To be honest I was never on the get a top end starter, mostly because I don't think the Twins would change their philosophy of around 21/22 batters faced on average a game. Maybe they could try for Rodon and abuse the crap out of him the rest of the year (think Brewers with CC) and let him walk, but I don't think they would do that either. I have been on the need relief pitchers and need them fast and would have been willing to overpay the last few weeks, still think they need relief pitchers but waiting until the last second wasn't the right play IMO because if they get another Dyson situation there is no fixing that, but if they got a guy a few weeks ago, well then they still have the deadline. As for the prospects, it is somewhat depressing they have no real top end type talent close, and I am guessing people are going to be saying that is because they graduated some many guys which I would agree with if those guys would have been top end talents unless I am wrong only Lewis and AK were considered top 50-100 guys, I mean Martin and SWR were but lets not go there.
  14. TwinsDr2021
    I would rather the Twins get into the playoffs then not, but I totally get what you are saying. The question I have for everybody is who are the prospects in the minors that are going to help this team be great and when realistically is great? could the Twins trade 5 guys in their stop 30 and still be OK or is that the end of building? For me next year looks quite a bit like this year, hope the starting pitchers stay healthy, hope the younger guys get better (Larnach, Miranda, Jeffers, AK), Lewis is healthy and wins a starting spot (somewhere), and maybe have a couple of pitching prospects step up. To me I see the 23 Twins in a similiar situation next year as they are this year, by this I mean in first or fighting for first with all three teams being a little better than this year. With that said I am not trading Lewis (unless it is for Othani or Soto) but anybody else could be traded for the right deal. There are plenty I would trade for a guy for 2 months, but most would require some team control.
  15. TwinsDr2021
    The only prospect I am offering for 2 months, is somebody that projects to be a 1B or DH type that is striking out a bunch in the minors, or maybe a utility type player, but no way and I offering an athlete for 2 months.
  16. TwinsDr2021
    Before today this team was 1 and 3 (now 1 and 4) and prior to that they were 3 and 3, with two of the wins against the Tigers and the 3 loses to the White Sox. That is is 4 - 7 in the last 11, but 2-7 against anybody not named the Tigers. So I can excuse people for their complaints when generally things haven't changed.
  17. TwinsDr2021
    Based on these stats, Gray shouldn't even be allowed to come out for the 5th, but if they do he should go 7?
  18. TwinsDr2021
    I agree with not wearing out your starters, look at what the Padres did last night they are so dumb, Musgrove pitched 6 innings and 96 pitches and faced 23 batters, that kind of crazy usage will end up with him getting hurt and not being able to pitch in the playoffs, and not be 100% for his next start. /s
  19. TwinsDr2021
    I do love reading the trade offers where the Twins get rid of junk for other teams stars. Why in the world would Boston want that package? What good is Urshela and Sano to them besides two guys required to be on their 40? Sure they could keep Kepler and Steer and cut Sano and not offer Urshela a contract next year, but then why take them in the first place. Also as of right now Martin, SWR, Enlow and Jordan B aren't getting you the top guys, maybe even if you offered them all up in the same trade. And probably nobody would want to take on that many guys required to be on the 40 this year and next.
  20. TwinsDr2021
    I think you missed my point/sarcasm on that one, There is little to no chance any of the teams would make one of those trades, (Maybe Boston would make the trade, maybe) But the rest of the trades are the Twins trading garbage or less than other teams would offer for those guys, so yes if you can basically steal other team's players for your garbage you make those trades. For example it doesn't matter if the Twins are in first or last if you can get a major league player for Cave, Archer and #30 prospect, make the trade, or if you can trade failed (at this time could he be valued any lower?) first round pick and Smith for Bard, they could trade him next week for way more than they paid do it in a heart beat. If the Marlins are willing to do that trade again you have to do it. If the Diamondbacks are going to give you a pitcher you have control over though 25 for those two prospect, again you do that.
  21. TwinsDr2021
    This started out with you answer Mike Sixel's following question - "How will next year be better? They likely have no SS.... And need to replace Bundy and Archer. They won't have a built in lead in the division. I'm genuinely curious why anyone thinks next year is likely to be better. ? ' And you laid out a scenario (which by the way I hope happens which I mentioned) where a lot things have to go right and you didn't answer the question on the built in lead. I pointed out all the things that have to go right including Cleveland and Chicago being as mediocre as they are this year and the Twins FO have to sign a top tier starting pitcher (which they haven't ever done). And your response is we could paint any scenario in a negative light, then use a multiple examples of things to the best of my knowledge didn't happen like signing Corbin, Clevinger and Rendon. Then also use some crazy example of what others thought of the Donaldson trade and how the Twins are going to spend $20 on pitching, which may or may not happen. So yes if all or maybe all of these things happen the Twins might be in a better position next year, but as I was pointing out that is truly based on faith and hope only. I will say some of things you said are very, very likely to happen, but what I know is as of July 28th 2002 the Twins are in first place, and I can't say with any certainty that July 28 2023 they will be.
  22. TwinsDr2021
    You are correct everybody has an option. I basically was going off the 63 million you said they would have to spend. Do you know the amount they spent this past offseason? Correa 35.1, Gray 10.7, Bundy 4, Archer 2.75 and Smith, which is a total of 55.05 and then they subtracted a bit from the Donaldson and Rogers trades, the difference between the money to spend next year which is only 8 less than your projected 63 and they didn't sign one top rotation guy, Plus they have to replace Sanchez, Urshela and Sano so unless those guys are replaced by prospects that will bring down your 63 to less or about the same as last year. IMO the Twins have a philosophy on starting pitchers and that is pretty consistently allowing their starters to pitch to 21 or 22 guys, you don't and can not pay the price of a top end starter and limit him to this and I don't see them changing that philosophy for one or two guys when they haven't done that for Gray or Ryan. IMO this front office will pay higher salaries for the offensive guys and let the pipeline, trades and Bundy's of the world fill out a rotation. Now I hope I am wrong and they go out and sign a stud starter and they let him pitch to the best of his abilities and not stick to their starting pitching philosophy, but I have little hope and faith that they do.
  23. TwinsDr2021
    If the Twins could pull this off it would be the miracle of all miracles and I would be all for it. They basically would 2 starters, 2 relief pitchers , a outfielder, a catcher and a utility guy for Kepler, Urbina and clear out a bunch of minor leagues players that most likely won't amount to a whole lot.
  24. TwinsDr2021
    So the same team minus Correa and a few other vets and the hope (fingers crossed) the Twins go out and do something they have never done before and are going to do it Twice (Sign a high end starting pitcher)? Free Agents next year, Price, Sale, Rodon, Syndergaard, Morton, Wainwright, Eovaldi, Kersahw, Greinke, Nola, Severino, Manaea, Gibson, Bassitt and Musgrove are the top guys available. I can assume we can count out Price, Morton, Wainwright, Greinke, Gibson and Kershaw from the list. That leaves Sale, Rodon, Syndergaard, Eovaldi, Nola, Severino, Manaea, Bassitt and Musgrove. Sale and Bassitt are both over 33, so probably can assume if they were to be brought in, it would be for a 1 or 2 contract, maybe 3, but do we really see the Twins pay 20 million a year for these two. Are Syndergaard, Eovaldi and Manaea top end pitchers? Down to Rodon, Nola, Severino and Musgrove. (and the Twins are going to outbid everybody for not just 1 of those guys but 2 of them?, sorry I don't see that happening) Then they are going to go out and get a bat for the bench because there is no room for a starter and two expensive relief pitchers. Man I wish I could live in a world where I would believe those things could happen. In my world they try to get Correa back (or sign Swanson to a deal similiar to what they did with Correa if he doesn't have the interest he wants), maybe get Wilson Contreras, bring in a relief pitcher like a Joe Smith and sign a starting pitcher like Jose Quintana or something like that. Also the team you envision is no more a contender then the team they have this year is.
  25. TwinsDr2021
    Urshela, Sanchez, Duffey, Smith Garlick, Bundy, Cotton, Archer, Cano and Sano are all on the 26 man roster. (Also you understand that removing Dobnak doesn't open up a spot correct? taking him off the 60 day DL takes a spot away but cutting him or whatever doesn't free up a spot) I am very confused how you take 10 guys off the major league roster and replace them with minor league prospects that need to be added to the 40 and since the 40 is full now some or all them will need to be added to the 26 man and how that wouldn't completely be considered another rebuilding year? Not sure you understand but for every guy that is removed from the 40 and is on the 26 will need to be replaced with another player capable of playing in the majors. For example Urshela is removed the Twins need a major league guy to replace him, ok in this cases it is Steer, Garlick can be replaced by Wallner but the talk is next year is going to be better and the solution is replacing major leagues not only with prospects but prospects that just now need to be added to the 40. To me this is complete crazy talk.
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