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TwinsDr2021

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Everything posted by TwinsDr2021

  1. TwinsDr2021
    So you are saying we can expect to the Twins to bring in another couple of Bundy/Archer types again next year?
  2. TwinsDr2021
    Well that is not a good sign going forward, my rough math says he is a pitcher with an ERA of ~4.25, That is OK with a guy consistently getting his team into the 6/7th innings, but not a guy averaging 5 innings. With Ober been similar, 2023 is looking OK, but 24 is looking not good.
  3. TwinsDr2021
    The answer is a simple NO, they don't have too many starters, they have a bunch of 4/5 innings pitchers, what the Twins do with all of them is anybody's guess as of now.
  4. TwinsDr2021
    I don't understand the handling of Ryan, He is not pitching well having given up at least 1 run in the first 4 innings and is brought out for the 5th. Pushing his batters faced past his average and runs up 110 pitches. Yet in his last game against a way worse team, he goes 5 gives up 1/3 of the amount of hits (3) and K's 9 guys and is pulled after 78 pitchers. WTF If he can or they will let him pitch 110 pitches, why the heck not do it when his is going well. Also I am starting to worry about Ryan since June his ERA is in the Bundy area.
  5. TwinsDr2021
    You are correct on Alcantara, But it isn't like there are no pitches getting their team into the 7th or even finishing the 7th. If you average 6 innings or more a start, you are pretty consistently getting your team to the 7th. Nola has started 22 games, 9 times he pitched in the 6th, 7 times in the 7th, 3 in the 8th 2 in the 9, and 1 below 5. Over half his starts he went 7+ to me that is pretty consistent. You can run though this exercise with at least 20 pitchers and find that in half or very close to half of all their starts they see the 7th inning, it drops down to about 1/4 of their starts they see the 8th. Yes, there are way more pitchers not ever getting to the 7th then there are, but to say it isn't happening just isn't a true.
  6. TwinsDr2021
    Simmons dWAR last year was 2.3 in 131 games, and this year in 34 with the Cubs .5, Correa's is .8 in 84 games. Just for comparison sake.
  7. TwinsDr2021
    Serious question why are people talking about Ober (he has/had an aponeurotic plate injury) as some savior to the Twins rotation, he hasn't averaged 5 innings a start since 2019 in A* and AA. Plus from rotowire as of 10 days ago hadn't thrown off a mound and today will begin bullpen progression in Fort Myers in hopes of a September return. Seriously even if he comes back in September the odds are they will use him in the same role (or maybe just a relief pitcher) he has been pitching the last two years, so the best we can hope for is some sort of piggy backing. As for Winder also from rotowire he is in Fort Myers beginning bullpen progression and will needs three plus weeks to get fully ramped back up and likely wouldn't rejoin the Twins until the roster expands. As for Maeda he was slated to start facing hits in August, does anybody know if that has started? But I would assume the earliest he could be up is a minimum three weeks after that. Dobnak threw live batting practice last week and no timetable for his return. (IMO I believe as fans we can hope one or more might help the Twins, but the odds of any of them really contributing to the Twins this year is probably not very good)
  8. TwinsDr2021
    I was commenting on this sentence - " I believe Lewis will produce better offensively than Correa is performing now." Not at all on the where the money could be spent, 100% it could be spent on pitching, I don't think the twins will spend that kind of money on pitching because if they stay anywhere near close to the philosophy they have it is wasting money, I believe they think they can find (develop, sign or trade for) the type of pitchers that go 5 innings (But more importantly can be good or better facing 21/22 guys a game) and no pitcher wanting a huge salary is or should settle for that limited amount of pitching, do we honestly believe Rodon would go from averaging almost 6 innings and 24 batters faced and 97 pitches a game to less? Now maybe the Twins will prove me wrong and take the leashes of of Gray and Mahle (They won't for Ryan because he will surpassing his career high in innings and fingers crossed will need him in the playoffs)to face more batters than the team average and would do the same for a Rodon type. I don't see it, I think they will continue to spend the "big" money on non-pitching because it seems safer in the long run and easier to offload if need be, then an expensive pitcher that is not good.
  9. TwinsDr2021
    ? not a bust, and if he had any say in getting pitching and keeping Miranda, he might be worth more than the Twins are paying him.
  10. TwinsDr2021
    If you mean the last month or so, you are probably correct that Lewis will produce better, but if you are talking about the year, that is putting a ton of weight on Lewis's shoulders. Correa is at 2.5 oWAR with 54 games left, he could easily get that above 3 and should be closer to 3.6. Considering Miranda is only at 1.3 oWAR that is a mighty big ask for Lewis. (possible, just a big ask - Hey Royce go out and be as good if not better than Carlos Correa). My expectations for Royce are not Carlos Correa type production, but I am also the type of person that would rather be surprised then let down. And Correa has already let me down this year by not be an all star.
  11. TwinsDr2021
    Isn't he also down a bit defensively? Offensively his isn't off that much from his last 4 years. (last year being the exception) Baseball reference has his dWAR at .8, last year it was 2.9, 2020 it was 1 (in 58 games), previous to that it was 1.4, 1.9, 1.6, 1.6 and as a rookie 1.1 in 99 games. I liked the signing and still do but that fact we have to point out his intangibles as a selling point to his signing is is not good. I am not sure how possible it is gain on those numbers in the last 54 games, but I sure hope he does. Because if he doesn't the big conversation over the winter is what to do with his 70 million left on his contract, and people will start the screaming like they did with Donaldson.
  12. TwinsDr2021
    I fully expected him to be an all start and put up all star numbers, didn't you? He is the 7th highest paid player in baseball (6th if you remove Bauer)
  13. TwinsDr2021
    When you pay somebody millions of dollars it plays into expectations. First I liked the signing and still do, I like Correa, but I feel offensively he has under performed, but to be honest if the Twins were paying half of what they are I still would feel he hasn't met my expectations, why? Because he is Carlos F'N Correa he should be all world no matter the pay check and I am still expecting that from him the rest of the year.
  14. TwinsDr2021
    Since 2015 (ESPN-WAR) Correa has 32.5, Bogaerts has 29,5, but since 2018 Correa has 16.1 and Bogaerts 19. Bogaerts is two years older. Maybe Correa gets a big offer next year, but I think he will take $35 from the Twins next year to prove again he deserves a bigger contract. But never under estimate Boras, he gets teams to do stupid stuff all the time.
  15. TwinsDr2021
    Poor is relative, is he playing like Sano, absolutely not. So he isn't playing poor, but he isn't playing to the standard of a guy making $35 million either. He is 51st in ESPN WAR for non-pitchers. After being #1 last year, in 19 and 20 he was 51st and 79th, and in 18 he was 156th. After being 41st, 16th and 11th his first three years, so maybe last year was the outlier and this year and the three previous to last year is the real Correa, I would rather have him than just about anybody but else at SS, but that $35 million will hang over his head. If he finishes around 4 WAR or less, I see his only real option as not opting out next year. I can't see anybody giving him the contract he wants with only 2 of the last 5 years with a WAR over 3 and one amazing one.
  16. TwinsDr2021
    Feel bad for Sands being put int this situation, if Archer isn't good Sands will be asked to go multiple innings regardless of the outcome, if he is terrible this could be his last chance, or course if he can go out and pitcher 3 or 4 innings with 1 or less runs, he might have found his spot on the team. Good Luck Cole.
  17. TwinsDr2021
    I believe you are correct. Maeda averaged 6 in 20, Berrios just over 5, Pineda a hair over 5 and everybody else below 4. In 19, they Berrios at almost 6 1/3, Pineda at 5 2/3, Gibson, Perez and Odo all just above 5. So the question is was Berrios, Maeda, Pineda the norm, or was all the rest of the pitchers? IMO they thought they had a future "Verlander" type in Berrios and then realized maybe they didn't, but if you go look though Maeda's 2020 game log it doesn't look that much different from game logs this year except he was way more efficient (1 8 inning game with 114 pitches, other than that only 4 games over 90 pitches, only 3 games facing 25 or more batters) Kind of the same with Pineda. So unless the Twins starters can become way more efficient with the amount of pitches per at bat and batters faced in a game, I don't see that the Twins philosophy has changed much if at all. Because even the beginning of last year Berrios was being moved to the low 20 batters faced and IMO is the reason he isn't a Twin anymore because he wasn't buying into that and said trade me and pitch me as much as possible to help with my value. Because the trade value is way less for a 5 inning pitcher than a 6 plus inning pitcher.
  18. TwinsDr2021
    Who Do The Twins Miss Most? There stars being stars and picking up the slack for the injured players, a little thinking outside the box from the FO/Manager on how to better get though games then relying on relief pitchers pitching innings 4/5 though the end of the game. Sure they miss what we all hoped AK would be, but hasn't been close to that yet. They miss Jeffers because while not an big upgrade from Sanchez he is better than the others. As for Ober, do they miss another starter that pitches 5 or less innings, I would say sure/maybe he is upgrade over Archer and Bundy if he actually averages more innings per start than he has so far.
  19. TwinsDr2021
    Well he did give up a run in the 6th so it would be justified if they took him out. ?, There is zero, nada, zip chance he would have those stats with the Twins. But lets look, after 5 he had faced 20 batters and 80, which is exactly what Ryan did the night before (20/78) and he was taken out. But they were losing 1 - 0 and he had only given up one hit and two walks, So I say Rocco would have brought him out for the 6th but for sure would have been taken out after the hit and maybe after the walk. I will say it does seem like Rocco tries to get his starters the win, there has been a few times were I was almost certain based on batters faced/pitch count that he would take the starter out after inning but bought them out the next to give them a chance for a win. (Not often but it has happened)
  20. TwinsDr2021
    The disagreement has nothing do to with last nights game IMO, if you walk 5 games in 5 innings you probably aren't coming going out for the 6th for most team. It is just another game asking your bullpen to come in for 4 innings, which isn't a problem in any "one" game, the problem comes from it happens every game with 4 of your starters and the 5 starter generally requires even another inning from a relief pitcher. And the main reason a relief pitcher is pitching in the 4,5,6 innings are because they are failed starters somewhere along the way and they aren't going to be perfect every single time out. IMO other teams have realized that you can't do that with every starter, you can do it with a couple and maybe a third you need to start a nontraditional starter. But you have to have a pitcher give you that extra inning occasionally just to limit the use of those guys in the middle innings. As for Archer he is tied for the team league in starts with 18, the team is 7 - 11 in his starts. Once Winder went 4 after him, Cano went 2 and 2.1, Jax went 2 twice, Minaya 2.1, Duran 2 and Moran 1.1. So in 8 of his 18 starts (which they knew were going to be short) they followed him up with a multiple inning pitcher.
  21. TwinsDr2021
    Is that really any different then claiming the Twins are doing what everybody in baseball are doing? Because I can name close to 20 others pitchers similar to him, but can't find another team doing what they Twins are doing with every one of their pitchers. Yes teams do exactly what the Twins do with pitches limit the amount of batters pitchers face, keep pitch count down. The Tigers have two guys one turned 24 this year (also a Rookie) and another that is 25, that average more batters faced and innings than any Twin. (Skubal and Brieske) and yes they aren't in the Verlander territory, but go though their game logs and notice when they don't go 5 plus innings generally the team loses.
  22. TwinsDr2021
    It will be interesting to see how the Twins pitch Mahle, on the year he averages over 5.5 innings, 97 pitches and facing 23 batters (all above any Twins average), But you only take his last 14 starts (not his first five, where he wasn't very good and was getting stretched out) those numbers jump to 5.85 innings, 103 pitches and facing 24+ batters. So I guess will see if the Twins philosophy changes when they get "better"/different pitchers. (I really, really hope he is good tonight so we can see)
  23. TwinsDr2021
    Looking at the team below the Twins, all seem to have 4 starting pitchers and use the 5 spot of a non traditional type starter. Which is very similar to the teams above them, it does look like at first glance the closer you get to average the less non traditional starts there are. I don't see that they twins have done that unless you count Sands and Chi Chi's starts (but both were basically just bad).
  24. TwinsDr2021
    Thanks for the laugh this morning Seth.
  25. TwinsDr2021
    The way I look at it is if you are going to use 4 relief pitchers (at minimum) every game, one is bound to be bad almost every night, so if three suck one night, the twins should be good for another game or two before another one blows up. Also I cant imagine why teams didn't think of limiting a starter to 5 innings and using 4 relief pitchers to end a game way before the last few years, it seems like a wonderful formula. </s>
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