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TwinsDr2021

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Everything posted by TwinsDr2021

  1. TwinsDr2021
    Interesting, So Duran goes two and Gray 7, imagine if Gray only goes 5, how f'd the bullpen will be after that game?
  2. TwinsDr2021
    I am with @nicksaviking I see a big second half from Polanco. I also like AK to improve and really start his ascent to one the better players in the American League (fingers crossed). As for Ober I don't see it, I don't think he will even be allowed to be the Ober of old until mid to late August and that Ober is no star, just a 4-5 inning pitcher. I can't imagine he can, will have the time or be allowed to even put up Chris Archer's first half stats and I don't see anybody call Archer a Twins first half star.
  3. TwinsDr2021
    Maybe the solution to this problem is 8 starters that go 4 innings, Smelter/Gray Ryan/Bundy Archer/Winder Ober/Jax That caps all their innings at 160 if perfectly healthy and go 4 innings each time. Then you have 5 short guys to rotate though. Duran, Thielbar, Pagan, Smith Duffey for example, and if need be the bus system to St. Paul. Nobody would ever have to face a batter the super scary 3rd time, Seems to completely take injuries out of play by limiting pitches and innings, seems like the perfect solution plus you never have to spend big money on a starting pitcher because no starting pitcher worth anything would agree to that. So you have piles and piles of money to spend on offense/defensive. (I mean I hate everything about it, but....)
  4. TwinsDr2021
    When you go though the league leaders and All Star lineups, most of the players were guys that had at least made the major league debut during age 23 or before. Now there are some exceptions, catchers and relief pitchers tend to be a little bit older. But generally if a guy hasn't had a cup of coffee prior to age 24 he is way less likely to be an all star for example. There were 20 pitchers that pitched in the all star game, 10 made their major league debut at 23 or younger, which mean 10 were older, the oldest were 25(3) two were relief pitchers and one was Gonsolin. 7 were 24 3 were starters the other 4 relief pitchers. There were 42 batters in the all star game. 2 debuted at 19, 8 at 20, 9 at 21,8 7 at 22, 4 at 23, 5 at 24, Judge and Alfonso are the big guns, followed by France, Cron and 3 catchers. 2 at 25, (Espinal, why was he chosen over Polanco and Trevino a catcher. 3 at 26. (Cooper, McNeil and Cronenworth) Croneworth seems to be the outlier. So yes there are guys that become stars or better than just major league players, but it is the exception to the rule not the rule. That is why for me Martin has dropped out of the top 10 he turns 24 prior to next season and if he doesn't make his debut this year (which it certainly doesn't look like) the odds he becomes anything like Arraez and not Nick Gordon go way down To me I get sick of hearing about the Covid season as an excuse, and it seems mostly to be propping up the Twins prospects to be better than they are, and yest it pushed back most of the players a bit, but the real stars rose to the top. I mean Lewis has missed a season with injury and Covid and still debuted before his 23rd birthday (barely) Bobby Witt missed the Covid season and went from rookie ball to AA.
  5. TwinsDr2021
    Arg, I know he is 25 and a old 25 at that (26 in three months), and I know I am being inconsistent, but I thought he should have came up directly from AA last year and IMO has pitched so much better than the rest of the prospects and beside the end of the year doesn't seem been injury prone, so maybe it is by default I moved him up because the rest I have moved down and I didn't feel I could put teenagers and guys that haven't pitched in the minors above him.
  6. TwinsDr2021
    Besides Archer(17.63) the Twins are pretty consistent on how many batters they let their starters face on average. Bundy - 21.19 Ryan - 21.86 Gray - 21.17 Smelzter - 21.33 Ober - 20.29 Winder - 21.14 From my research only six times all year has a Pitcher faced more than 25 batters (3 - Bundy, 1 each from Gray, Smelzter, and Ober) in a game and only twice more than 27 (Both Bundy). What this tells me is while it seems wildly inconsistent on what Rocco is doing with the pitching staff from game to game, the plan seems to be to get a starting pitcher to end an inning right around the 18 batters faced mark even if that means pitching to a few guys a third time to accomplish that and in a rare few cases letting them pitch an extra inning if it is the bottom of the order. Also it tells me if you are a pitcher, you might as well go all out just about every pitch because it doesn't really matter how well you do or save yourself for late in the game, it isn't happening. IMO the Twins have ZERO plans on changing this plan, because from what I can tell this is exactly what is happening in the minors as well, so hoping we get some stud like Shane Bieber for example isn't going to happen, thus also the reason I don't see them signing a high priced free agent starter, why would the Twins sign a guy like Musgrave/Ray/Rondon/etc.. to a high price salary when you are going to limit their innings, and if you are one of those guys and you want to leave a mark on being one of the best pitchers in your generation why would sign here? Also IMO that is why the Happ/Shoemaker/Archer/Bundy's of the world are willing to sign here because that takes advantage of their skills. Just took a peak at Berrios and in 20 his average was around 22, and the start of 21 it was around 21-22 until mid may, but after than average around 26, speculation maybe that is when the two sides decided the Twins wasn't his future and the Twins realized they needed to pitch him more to showcase him? He only pitched less than 6 innings in 3 of his last 15 starts here. and then again instead of being on to something maybe I am just on something.
  7. TwinsDr2021
    That was going to be my question has Winder lost his status? If not he is my number 2, Lee 3, Rodriquez 4, then 5 would be Raya or Prielipp. I am more in the camp that the top prospects should be young or at least on the younger side. The Steer, Wallner, Canterino will all be 25 (probably) before they see their first major league action. My reasoning is older guys end up more like Gordon than lets say Arraez or Buxton. I also like what Steve Hajjar is doing (minus the innings per start) but 62 K's in 39 innings is impressive and should be moving up the lists fairly quickly.
  8. TwinsDr2021
    Well those people completely under estimate what the Twins have to trade, IMO to get a top SP (Cin/Oak) it will take two guys offer the major league roster (Ober and Larnach/AK/Mirana for example) or Lewis because the Twins just don't have the prospect capital to pull this off without offering four or five prospects. I am always for trading prospects for top guys, but this year the Twins just don't have that ability IMO. If the Twins top prospects were pitching like Romero, Gonzo, and Graterol did a few years back, I would say trade a SWR, Balazovic, Canterion, Henriquez, Varland, Sands and a Steer/Wallner for a top starting pitcher, but sadly this just isn't the case this year (it might take all those guys to get it done) Looking back at the last few trade deadlines, guys like Robertson and Bard, shouldn't cost all that much, but unless the Twins are willing to overpay it isn't going to happen until the last possible minute while those team push for all they can get.
  9. TwinsDr2021
    What I heard was drain the farm system for 2 1/2 years of Soto. ?
  10. TwinsDr2021
    I get that, but one would argue about 50-100 minor league players that weren't sold at their high or Low and never made it. I just can't say I am glad these players weren't sold because I have no idea what the Twins have gotten in return. Maybe the Twins could have gotten Zac Gallen in 19, or Greinke or Ray in 20 for some or all of them. Puk has blown 3 of 14 this year which is 22%, not great not terrible. True on Robertson in all 5 blown saves he has given up 1 run and hasn't given up a run in his 13 saves and has once this year given up more than 1 run and Puk also has only given up more than 1 run once this I will take that. (To compare Duran has given up more than 1 run 4 times)
  11. TwinsDr2021
    The trade simulator makes it not even close (AK - 24.3), Ober (15.2), Laureano (45.5) and Montas (27.1), not sure way it has Laureano so how, I would rather have AK than him. It looks like the trade simulator isn't a fan of the Twins in general. Polanco is the top guy at 39.4, Arraez 32, Ryan 32, Laranch 28, then Lewis, AK, Kepler, Miranda, Jeffers, Winder, Correa, Ober, Duran.
  12. TwinsDr2021
    What is going to make next year or any other year better than this year? Just about all of next years team is set. AK, Polanco, SS(Lewis or fill in till he is 100%), Miranda, Laranch, Buxton, Kepler, Jeffers (basically the same lineup minus Correa. The rotation is basically set Gray, Ryan, Ober, Winder, Maeda/Paddock/Dobnack, and dang near the bullpen as well. So even if by some miracle they sign a Musgrave isn't next years team basically the same, not good enough to compete? So at this time next year the same reasons for not doing anything will be happening? On top of maybe Detroit, Cleveland and the White Sox don't crap the bed at the beginning of the year and basically give the Twins the chance to run away with the division.
  13. TwinsDr2021
    Let me get this straight we are talking about the soon to be 27 year old pitcher that has blown 5 of his 17 save/hold opportunities in 87 innings and has done his best pitching against the worst teams in the league in September? He has done nothing to prove he is a back of the pen relief pitcher that was what this year was for. So for people to expect him to come back from a 1/2 year injury and do something he has never proven he can do to help the this team to the playoffs might be asking a bit much from him, don't you think?
  14. TwinsDr2021
    it is really just semantics, the FO should get all the credit in the world for getting Ryan (very shrewd trade one could argue having to give Strotman a 40 man spot diminishes it but still) , but does somebody that pitched all of 9 innings in the Twins minor league constitute being part of a minor league pipeline? Compared to the guys you mentioned who all ended up pitching over 100 minor league innings for Cleveland.
  15. TwinsDr2021
    IMO that trade package wouldn't be enough for even one of the pitchers.
  16. TwinsDr2021
    The problem with being sellers on somebody like Correa, means it has to be guaranteed major league players or guys a few years out, they can't take on anymore Strotman type players.
  17. TwinsDr2021
    Sorry, I misinterpreted the point. I thought it was that the pipeline HAD started to fill in the major league roster, and I was just pointing out when the got here. I was just saying Jax and Ober were last year and Winder, Duran and Moran and possibly Ryan were this year. that is a large amount of pitchers added the the major league roster, and hopefully that can continue, it is looking less likely they could get that kind of results next year, but not out of the question.
  18. TwinsDr2021
    This IMO is the be best, most logical, spot on Message I have seen!
  19. TwinsDr2021
    Jax started 14 games an pitched 82 innings (only 11. 1/3 less than Ober, 55 1/3 more than Ryan and Moran pitched 8 ) so one could say Ryan and Moran was this year and Jax was last year, but not sure it really changes the overall point.
  20. TwinsDr2021
    So you want the first place Twins to punt on this year for the hope of the future? Seems very similiar to what people said in 19 and 20, and then 21 happened. If you are so convinced this team can't compete do you hold the FO accountable for trading a former first round pick away and spending 35 million on Correa? Or if you are so convinced then Sonny Gray has to go right, why spend the money on him when you could get more prospects for him than just about anybody else on this team? Yes, I am way more satisfied helping this team (without trading all the prospects) and being in the playoffs then the hope they can make it in the future. Who is to stay Gray, Archer, Ryan, Winder and others can't hold down a team with limited innings and a have better relief pitchers including a few on the team now shut down the another team and have players like Buxton, Correa, Polanco, Arraez, AK score enough runs to win? If you and others believe that is not possible, how can it be possible next year, they aren't bringing in multiple aces next year, it will be the same exact starters next year, Gray, Ryan, Winder, Ober, etc.. it isn't like the Twins have the next Cole, Verlander, Bierber, fried, Mikolas pitching in AA or AAA or Correa is even coming back. You don't stand pat or piss away a year that after 94 games you are in first place on hope and prayers, unless of course your goal is piss off the fans or put your job in jeopardy, there is no guarantee that anybody on this team will be better next year then they are right now or healthier. (I sure hope all the young guys, which most aren't really all that young get better, but if I am putting money down on the Twins winning the division this year or next, I am going with this year)
  21. TwinsDr2021
    IMO, this is a ridiculous take. The Twins traded a first round pick for a starting pitcher and spent 35 million dollars on basically a one year deal and didn't think they compete this year? Being buyers doesn't mean trading away all your top prospects it means using fill holes with prospects. That is part of the FO job, figuring out how to deal with the future 40 man. Could the Twins be both, sure, but at the end of the deadline the Twins better have improved this years team somehow, if that means moving Ursheal, Bundy, Sano or others and to give new guys more playing time, that is great.
  22. TwinsDr2021
    absolutely not, you can't trade talents like that, they must be kept for when the Twins are truly competitive in a couple of year.
  23. TwinsDr2021
    "Realistically speaking, the first two names that come to mind when constructing a trade package are Spencer Steer and Matt Wallner. The former is following a path similar to that of Miranda last season and has done incredibly well at both Double and Triple-A." The difference I see with Steer/Wallner compared to Miranda is that Miranda is in the majors days before he turned 24, where Steer/Wallner will be 25 before they see their first major league action (unless they are called up this year). I agree with this article the Twins prospects list has taken a pretty big hit with the top minor league pitchers not stepping up this year. So maybe the twins best trade-able prospects are the young pitchers (the ones under 23).
  24. TwinsDr2021
    I doubt Pit would take that package for Bednar but if they would he should be flying back from LA to MIN.
  25. TwinsDr2021
    My question is which of the Twins prospects are other teams wanting? If I was another team I would be looking at Winder, Miranda, SWR, AK, Miller, Hajjar, and staying away from the Martin, Canterino, Steer, Wallners, Varland, Obers, and Laranch of the world, but that is just me.
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