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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    I'm happy to see the velocity staying up, and I've always liked his changeup. For me the key is going to be whether they've unlocked the slider/cutter as an impactful 3rd pitch, especially against righties. I think it's going to need to be more than a "show-me" pitch, so we'll see where this lands. The first start wasn't a disaster. I will be interested to see where he is at the end of the month, what the velocity and pitch mix looks like, and how deep he's able to get into games.
  2. jmlease1
    I get the idea of trying to take advantage of the opportunity to break open a game, seize the lead, etc, but I agree that the 4th inning is probably too early to make that kind of move, especially when you have such a small bench. It might be different if they were carrying 15 hitters, but that's not how we roll. I don't like the risk-reward on pulling a player like Julien, who is a superior hitter against RHP so early just to get the platoon advantage. I do think it's a little funny the face of the people complaining about Rocco "throwing away games" and "not trying to win" though, because this is the sort of playoff baseball move managers make when they absolutely need a win...
  3. jmlease1
    Good to see the bats break out and bunch up some runs. Kirilloff had a terrific game at the plate. He's always hit when he's been healthy; as soon as he got dinged up with the wrist or the shoulder his power fell off and his performance at the plate really fell off, but it was always an issue with injuries not ability. If he can stay healthy (and it's a big if with his history until he actually does it) he'll be a weapon at the plate. Nice to see Jeffers get off the schnide too. You could see the relief in him as he ran the bases, and hopefully this gets him settled in. His power production at the bottom of the lineup can be impactful. Bullpen did well again. Paddack is going to need to be less hittable and hand out fewer walks to be successful this season, but it's early. Bullpen picked him up, but 4 inning starts from Paddack and Varland won't work.
  4. jmlease1
    heh. I didn't mind the Santana signing, but I'm less thrilled the more clear it became that they planned on him being the every day 1B and not a platoon guy to deal with LHP. Think he's going to be overexposed and they'll justify his no-bat performances with florid praise about his defense. that said...Miranda does have a ways to go to be a competent 1B. If he does figure it out and stays healthy, then I'm excited for him to hop the light rail and go to Target Field.
  5. jmlease1
    Interesting player. Probably just organizational depth, but good organizations can find hidden gems this way. he hit well at AA and seems to be a solid enough defender in the corners. It'll be interesting to see how he hits this season: he did a nice job getting more power production last year while still making tons of contact and did a good job taking his walks as well. If he can repeat it, he's got a chance. If not...well, not that many guys even make it to AAA! I'm not going to start planning around him, but should be a fun player to keep an eye on. Nice to see a minor league Rule 5 advance in the system after selection.
  6. jmlease1
    Nice start for SWR. It'll be interesting to see where he's at by the end of April. Hopefully, he'll be able to keep the velocity up all month and reposition himself as being one of the first options if/when the Twins need reinforcements for the rotation. It's just one start, so I'm not going to get ahead of myself here, but happy to see the touted velocity increase from spring training carry over. Hopefully he's able to keep the walks manageable as well. Miranda is off to a good start as well, hopefully this means his shoulder is feeling good and he's fully recovered. He's absolutely important depth this season and could be an important role player in the future if he finds his stroke consistently. I'll be curious to see where he's at towards the end of the month as well. At some point he'll need to start taking some walks, right? lol.
  7. jmlease1
    It's still early, but the offense needs to get it going. Yes, losing Lewis hurts but they still should be able to do better than this. Hopefully they'll be able to get it going soon. I'm glad to see Alcala have a solid start to the season and showing good velocity. I'm a fan of his, think he can be a real contributor.
  8. jmlease1
    wouldn't surprise me a bit, but that's more about how awesome Jenkins is than anything else. Real chance Jenkins flies through A-ball this season and gets a cup of coffee or more at AA. He's soooooo talented and appears ready for anything Keaschall is still a really interesting prospect, though and had a very nice start. I could see him in AA by midseason if he keeps beating up on pitchers in Cedar Rapids..
  9. jmlease1
    I'm going to wait a bit before getting on the Duarte train. It's good to see him throwing well and he certainly has good stuff, but he's struggled to not hand out free passes at higher levels, and walked a guy in his first appearance as a Twin too. Of course outside of last season he's never had more than 20 appearances in a season in the minors/majors, so it's not like we're working with big numbers. He's an interesting addition and did fine in a low-leverage first outing. But I would count his season a success if he can replace some of those Pagan innings effectively, rather than look to him to be a late inning weapon.
  10. jmlease1
    Keaschall has 3 years of collegiate experience behind him already. Not really a surprise that he'd get pushed up faster than Winokur or Jenkins
  11. jmlease1
    Where is Cory Lewis starting the season? Didn't see him on either Cedar Rapid or Wichita rosters here. I hope it's Wichita; would love to have Lewis, Raya, and Ohl pitching there. Call it a hunch, but I don't think Walker Jenkins is going to be at Ft. Myers more than half a season.
  12. jmlease1
    well, we might get to see more of the 2025 Twins OF alignment early: Wallner in RF, Buxton in CF, and Martin LF... guessing the knee swelled up after the game, hopefully if he goes on the IL it'll just be a 10-day stint
  13. jmlease1
    You're really harsh on a rookie playing in his first game in the field in one of the larger outfields in baseball. And MAT won a Gold Glove (and should have won another); are we really at the point where we're ready to call judgment on a rookie after one game if he's not up to a Gold Glove standard in CF? He's a quality fielder who unfortunately couldn't come up with the big play in his very first start. Holy cow. it's like the Twins went 0-3 in KC to start the season around here...
  14. jmlease1
    Well, it depends on how you look at it. If the expectation is that the rotation should always have the same level of depth that we had last season, where 2 younger guys with MLB experience, are waiting in AAA for no other reason than the team had better options ahead of them...then yeah: the rotation depth is thin and we might not have anyone capable of stepping in if Lopez or Ryan go down for an extended period. But isn't that the case for most teams? How many teams have two MLB-ready starters with a ceiling of being at least a #2-3 guy just hanging out in AAA? 2023's rotation depth was the aberration in that we had Ober and Varland ready to go in AAA. But it's also important to remember that behind them the rotation depth was arguably worse than what we have now. Sure, we're running Headrick back again as an option, but we've also got Festa in the mix, SWR seems better positioned than last season, and Dobnak looks like a much more reasonable option as well. And we certainly didn't have the depth in the bullpen last season to handle a loss like Duran last year. We're now in the world where we're taking some risk on in the rotation and expecting that some of our pitching prospects will step in if called upon. This year, it's Festa. Next year it might be Raya, Lewis, or Ohl. (Much as I wish it was Canterino, you simply can't make that bet) I feel like that's the kind of bet you make when your rotation is all under 30? I think who gets called up depends a little on timing, but the most likely choices are SWR and Headrick, unless it's already June and Festa's command and control look good. Dobnak is less likely to get grabbed for a spot-start because of the 40-man issue, but if he's pitching well and say Paddack goes to the IL, I could see him being added to the 40-man and given a chance if he's pitching well in Saint Paul. I still like SWR's talent and with Festa...either you believe in him as a prospect or you don't. If you do then he's a legit option. If you don't, then you're probably going to spend most of the season mad at the Twins, because you don't agree with their prospect investment or development...
  15. jmlease1
    But this Sunday's lineup certainly wasn't a "getaway day" lineup: the only real change was Martin starting in CF to let Buxton DH; Castro was an injury replacement. The only "starter" that didn't play was Kepler, who is dealing with a knee after the foulball off it. So it wasn't an inferior lineup. And I'm willing to bet people would have jumped on Rocco for leaving Buxton and Correa in the game down 10-0 ("how dare Rocco leave 2 players with major injury history in the game and risk injury when the game is already over! Fire the manager, he's terrible!"). He pulled Correa in the bottom of the 5th and Buxton in the top of the 6th. Seems fine...unless you've already made up your mind that Rocco is a bad manager. Then, he can't possibly win in this situation.
  16. jmlease1
    why? because he's not Buxton? He didn't come up with the incredible catches today, but I don't think that would have saved us. He's a good OF, but those catches against the wall weren't run of the mill.
  17. jmlease1
    Pretty bad game al the way around. Ober just didn't have it today, couldn't spot his pitches where he needed them and wasn't fooling anyone. But it's one game, let's not lose our minds over it. Which is more likely: Ober had a bad day, or the guy with a career 116 ERA+ can't pitch any longer at age 28? I'm disappointed at the offense; the Twins really flailed out there today and made a decent pitcher look like an ace. They're going to have to do better, but they really looked like they had already left for MN. It's annoying because KC isn't a very good team, but even a bad team like KC is going to win games
  18. jmlease1
    I think Dobnak will get another chance this season, just because they're going to need starts from 8-10 pitchers this year in MLB. But he's behind Festa, SWR, and probably Headrick at this point until he shows he can be less hittable and give up fewer free passes. I'll be watching his WHIP this season; if he's sitting up near 1.5, then he's not going to be a real option, even if he manages to somehow limit the runs. You simply can't allow that many baserunners, especially since Dobnak is never going to be a champion hunter of Ks. He did a nice job in his first outing, and I liked seeing him be effective piggybacking for another starter; it opens options for him to be a long man and not just a starter. Him not being on the 40-man will definitely keep him from being one of the early options to start, but depending on how injuries go, there's usually room to add someone to the 40-man during the season. If he doesn't get added back, it'll mean one of three things: 1) Twins didn't have enough significant injuries to really need him, 2) guys like Festa/SWR/Headrick got the job done and he wasn't needed, or 3) he didn't show enough in AAA to be considered an option. I don't think the 40-man issue will be a real barrier if he pitches well, but others will likely get a shot first.
  19. jmlease1
    Nice work from Dobnak; if he can show success in a piggybacking role that will open up opportunities for him to either start or relieve in MLB. He's been something of the forgotten man with the finger injuries and getting dropped from the 40-man, but he could still be an impactful player. That said, I hope the low pitch counts and short innings for Festa are just an early season ramp up and not a common practice. Great to see Miranda start fast. Hope he settles in and mashes AAA pitching. I think if he stays healthy he will, but you never know exactly how guys respond to significant injuries and I think his shoulder woes weren't small time. It would be great for him to re-emerge as a solution for the future for the Twins as a 1B/DH option with a serious RH bat.
  20. jmlease1
    Thought Alcala looked pretty good, which was nice. If he's back and throwing well he can be a difference maker in the bullpen. If Buxton can move like that and stay on the field, I'm going to be one happy Twins fan. He's so fun to watch when he's right, and seeing him leg out doubles that would be singles for most people is awesome. Thought Ryan looked pretty good. A few nervy fly balls, but the revised slider looked pretty effective and the splitter was working too. Good to see the velocity on the fastball as well. KC made a bunch of great plays defensively at 3B and LF, had me wondering if they were going to steal it. nice to see the team rally late.
  21. jmlease1
    Some interesting players in AAA this year. Obviously the club will be stronger when Lee and Larnach get back, but there's several players I want to watch and see if they can answer questions. Rotation: can SWR maintain the better velocity he showed in spring training? How will Festa's command look, and can he keep the free passes reasonable? Can Dobnak stay healthy and restart his career? (I keep forgetting him; he's shown ability before, but he wasn't good last year) Lineup: Can Severino make enough contact to be a real threat? Can Martin stay healthy and hit consistently? Will Miranda's shoulder hold up and get him back as a hitter? Will Keirsey hit enough to be a real OF option? Can Larnach hit off-speed pitches or is he cooked? Will Lee's injury keep him from getting a call-up before midseason? Is Isola able to stick at catcher or is he going to have to hit his way up at another position? Should be a pretty good squad; lot of guys with real experience, but there are some prospects with good ceilings as well.
  22. jmlease1
    I think he nailed himself twice, in fact. the second one was the worse one, going right off the knee. The change seemed more precautionary than anything, but it looked painful going right off the knee like that.
  23. jmlease1
    Sucks that Royce got hurt. Ugh. Just hate everything about that, but if anyone can bounce back it's the ever-positive Royce Lewis. Pablo looked good, no complaints about 1 run over 7. He could have a monster year. I hope this isn't going to be another season where crap umpires expand the zone on Julien and call balls strikes on him as they continue to not give a young player credit for knowing the strike zone. Laz Diaz made some strike calls in the later innings that were maddening. I don't want to talk or think about umps like this, but effing hell. Correa looked great. Foot must be feeling good, hopefully he's got that behind him.
  24. jmlease1
    Duarte is probably the biggest surprise, but otherwise this is pretty chalk. There are some different names in the bullpen because of injuries, but going into the year, Funderburk always looked like the LHP replacement for Thielbar (or Okert once he was signed), Alcala was already battling with Staumont for a slot, and Sands has been in the "long man" role before. the bullpen injuries are a bummer; I was looking forward to seeing what Topa could do, and Duran isn't replaceable. But the depth we brought in and have within the the system should be able to hold things down overall. I'm still a big fan of Alcala if he's healthy and he sure looks like he is now. No surprises at all on the position side; kinda nice to not be battling injuries there. I'm mildly concerned about Santana being overexposed as an every day 1B, and I'd like Kirilloff to get consistent work there rather than just be a DH (I don't see him getting any real OF time unless Kepler or Wallner are injured or need a day off against a RHP, and even then we might see Castro out there). health and 2nd year regression are the biggest factors the lineup is facing IMHO; otherwise it's deep and talented with flexibility. The worst hitter by a mile is the backup catcher, who provides quality defense.
  25. jmlease1
    You might be recalling intensity rather than size? I'm sure there were people on the site who were very loud about how they shouldn't do this because Graterol could be the next great starter for the Twins. I'm not sure there were huge numbers of them who were convinced that he was the next Santana/Liriano. The same 6 people posting often on the topic can create a false sense of what the broader community is thinking. I mean, we still have people that pop up from time to time suggesting that Duran should be turned back into a starter, but I don't think they're representative of the community as a whole. I think there were people who still saw Graterol as a potential starter at the time of the trade, but it was increasingly a minority position. Because there was a lot of talk about this deal in terms of trading a reliever for a starter from the Twins perspective. There's also no question that the Dodgers acquired him with the intent that he be a reliever.
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