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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Of course, Buxton has a higher career OPS & OPS+, and despite playing 300 fewer games has a higher bWAR as well, as an even better defensive player at a more valuable and difficult position, since Kepler only played about 15% of his games at CF. Part of the reason Kepler's tenure with the Twins may end with a mild disappointment from many fans is in the end his best ability was his availability. Another part of the Kepler Reality is like many players his best years may have been 25-27, when he put up a 3.5, 4.0, and 1.0 (and if you project out that pandemic shortened year it lands around 3) bWAR, and his 30's could end up being a decline.
  2. jmlease1
    Kepler has been a good player for the Twins. For most of his career in MN he's been a quality starter and after 2019 there was belief that he could be a lot more. Instead, it was his peak, the year that combined his best offense with quality defense. he's slipped defensively as he's gotten older and seems streakier as a hitter. This year hasn't been good defensively and the offense pretty average, so he might end up a little below starting quality. I think part of what has always been at issue with Kepler is he looks great even when the results aren't the best. The swing looks sweet, he's smooth in the OF, and he looks like a big strong, fast powerful corner. If you could dream up a LH hitter from central casting, he might look just like Max. But the results have been more modest. Good, not great. better defense than offense at a position that usually needs offense. I think Kepler will get a 1-2 year deal from another team. he'd be a useful LH platoon bat on a team that can afford to throw $8M on a 4th OF who could step in and start for a while. A team might give him a starting opportunity thinking they can get him back to 2023. but I doubt it'll be with the Twins, not with Larnach & Wallner around and Rodriguez waiting in the wings, plus guys like Walker Jenkins coming up around the corner. they might offer him 1 year with a pay cut, but I doubt he'll take it.
  3. jmlease1
    Fair. and there are some other players on the roster with excellent success rates. But it does seem notable that he's already 6th on the team in steals and all of the guys ahead of him have 2-5 times as many games. I think it'd be a good add to his game if he's able to be a consistent threat on the basepaths.
  4. jmlease1
    deBarge has 11 steals in 14 games and has only been caught once. That's fun! New part of his game, or just something he wasn't allowed to show off as much in college? No complaints, I'm always happy to see aggressive baserunning paired with efficiency!
  5. jmlease1
    Nice to have a blowout win. The bats did a great job, especially Larnach, Julien, and Martin. The team wasn't drawing much for walks, but who needs them when you bang out 18 hits? Really happy to see Martin get a couple of doubles too. Wallner's HR was a no-doubter; he knew it as soon as the ball left his bat, lol. I love knuckleball pitchers, but when it doesn't knuckle it's going to get hit. A lot. A little surprised Henriquez didn't get sent out for a 2nd inning to mop it up, but with an off day today I suppose they didn't need to. he's a very frustrating pitcher with his inconsistency: he'll look great against one hitter ands then look garbage against the next. (or vice versa) probably a 4-A pitcher in the end? Bummer to have given away games in this series, but overall a successful road trip. lot of action coming through the end of the season: 3-way race for the division, good race for the wild card spots (I would not say no to Boston falling off the face of the earth though!). If the Twins can get a little healthier I think they're in good position.
  6. jmlease1
    Feels like they're going to let him finish the year in AA, and I think that's fine. The late start and injury set him back a bit, but if he finishes the season strong at AA he'll be nicely positioned to have a spring training invite and start 2025 in AAA. I mean, how much difference will it really make if he gets 2-3 starts in AAA at the end of the season? Sure do like the idea of next year's AAA rotation having Matthews, Morris, Lewis, and possibly Raya along with one from Festa/SWR/Varland. And it makes dealing Paddack and/or moving Varland to the bullpen more viable from the jump. (unless he falls apart in September, I'd be pretty happy starting next season with a rotation of Lopez, Ober, Ryan, Festa, and SWR in MLB with a bunch of legit prospects as call-ups if/when injuries and/or ineffectiveness strike.)
  7. jmlease1
    Julien had good ABs last night. Hopefully it's the start of a trend. He definitely looked like he had a plan and confidence up there. I think the second AB was the one where I thought, "that looks a LOT better from him". Took a pitch for a strike...but it was a really well-placed pitch, low and inside that would have been difficult to do anything with. Later in the AB, he gets a ball out over more the plate and put a good swing on it, had good hard contact...just happened to be too close to the CF. Much less passive, showed good zone recognition, and it was a good swing with hard contact, swinging with intent. We'll see how he goes. It's been a rough season for him at the plate, but he's better than this and I expect his talent to shine through. he's hit at every level (including last season in MLB), so this feels more like a bump that needed correction rather than a collapse or sign that he can't play at this level. He's definitely improved defensively, which is nice.
  8. jmlease1
    Jenkins seems to have settled in nicely at cedar rapids, it'll be interesting to see if his power stroke comes around more as we head to the end of the season. (I'm not worried, but it would be nice for him to rip a couple of dingers at High A before the end of the year) Curious as to where the Twins go with him next season: start back in Cedar Rapids with an early promotion, or just send him to Wichita from the jump? Props to Eeles for giving himself a chance. he's showing more pop in his bat than I think people were expecting and he's doing a fine job controlling the strike zone. but there are still going to be fair questions as to whether or not he can make the jump to MLB. He's done a great job in getting himself to AAA coming out of the Independent leagues, but if he didn't dominate at A-ball at 24, then he's not a prospect of any kind. Handling the jump up to AAA, skipping AA entirely, impresses me more. I think the AAA numbers are very good, but still a small enough sample that I'd pump the brakes on him a bit. but he sure looks worthy of a spring training invite next year (how does his bat hold up against MLB players?) and could be intriguing depth. Schobel has really heated up over the last month, and it's good to see. he'd been scrabbling this year in AA and I was wondering if he'd hit a wall. He needs to finish the season strong, but it's looking much better now. Not worried about Morris getting bit; it's going to happen. Looking forward to seeing how he responds. he's had a fantastic season regardless but let's see how he responds to a little adversity.
  9. jmlease1
    Gardy got some stick from people like me for doing things like batting his 2B 2nd in the lineup, seemingly regardless of who the player was, and refusing to admit that Jacque Jones couldn't hit LHP. But overall, Gardy got picked on a lot less: the blame for the losing seasons was usually dumped on the Pohlads for being cheap, or Joe Mauer for being hurt and/or talking too many walks.
  10. jmlease1
    I guess it's good that people care enough about every game to have a massive overreaction to losing one road game while still taking 3 out of 4 in a series? I like to remind myself on these days that some people despise everything about the way Rocco and Twins leadership manages a game and will jump on him immediately and excessively at every opportunity. Bullpen is getting ground down a bit right now; this happened to us earlier in the season when the Twins were on a good run because they were in every game, but also weren't blowing anyone out. It should be fine, but things are a bit trickier right now because it's hard to let off the gas when you're chasing the division while being chased in the WC. Good to see Lopez battle through on a day when he didn't have his best stuff and the other team was making him work. Too bad we couldn't hold it. Alcala has been really good lately, so seeing him implode like that was a surprise; he's had some bad outing this year but they were typically when we tried to have him go 2 innings rather than 1
  11. jmlease1
    Kirilloff is not in a good place, unfortunately. He's got to hit to be on the roster, and he hasn't been able to hit consistently in MLB and he certainly hasn't been able to stay healthy. I had a lot of hope for him going into the season especially after it looked like the wrist surgery had finally worked and he'd had a solid year (OPS+ of 117). But it's been another lost season for him and there's only so many of those you can have before the team is going to move on. He's still young enough that he could get himself back on track, but it's a lot of injuries to overcome. He had a really sweet swing. Shame he hasn't been able to put it together.
  12. jmlease1
    A really nice win putting them in position to sweep. Pretty great way to start a road trip. Bullpen has been doing great work lately and Henriquez giving 2 good innings made a real difference with the bullpen having some of their top guys unavailable. Like seeing Sands put in such an efficient inning to end the game especially after pitching the day before. Only 2 games back of Cleveland!
  13. jmlease1
    Right now there's plenty of room with the injuries. Before getting called back up Julien had gotten a hit in 12 out of 13 games while hitting 6 doubles, 2HRs and drawing 10 walks. He was looking a lot like the player from last season. But it kinda feels like you've made up your mind on him based on his style of play.
  14. jmlease1
    I think SWR should be #2 on this list right now. Matthews might pass him, but performance counts and SWR has put up an ERA+ of 110 in MLB over 107 IP and that matters. Maybe he doesn't have as much upside...but he's getting the job done and it's not that small of a sample size any longer. But really, this list should be longer and looked at where the next set are on the rankings as well: Morris, Lewis, Raya, Prielipp, Culpepper. Let's look at the full next 10 prospect-type pitchers in the pipeline and see how they're landing for everyone as future rotation options.
  15. jmlease1
    Yeah, I feel like we haven't talked much about Winokur this year (maybe in part because of how Keaschall has risen this season) but he's having a pretty solid season, especially considering it's his first full season of pro ball. He's got some things to work on, like making more consistent contact, but his walk rate is also pretty impressive for someone of his age and experience. That 18-5 steals/CS ratio works just fine too. Culpepper seems to have passed the Gleeman Lemon Test too. Nice to see the new pick off to a good start.
  16. jmlease1
    It was his first game back against a LHP. He's been looking good at the plate again in AAA, so maybe give him a few games before you throw him on the trash heap.
  17. jmlease1
    Minor league deal, with no promises or promotion? Sure. I'd be perfectly happy to have him stashed in saint Paul as injury insurance. but I have no interest in signing any starters that we can't be confident of them raising the ceiling on the rotation. Unless their better than Ober, Ryan, or Lopez...no thanks. And DeSclafani isn't better than any of those guys, healthy or not. Yes, injuries will happen. Yes, the 2025 Twins will have to run out somewhere between 7-10 starters. But I'd much rather have SWR, or Festa, or Matthews as the 5th guy in the rotation than DeSclafani, who is 34 now, and has been neither good nor healthy since 2021. It's a poor use of limited resources, because roster spots are just as precious as dollars. Absent a trade, our rotation to start 2025 is going to be Lopez, Ober, Ryan, Paddack, and one of Festa/SWR/Matthews/Varland. how does that get better with DeSclafani in the mix? If he's rehabbing in AAA...maybe. Otherwise, no.
  18. jmlease1
    A good win. I was impressed with Ober's ability to battle through 6 when he wasn't at his best and had wobbled through the early innings. He kept it together and didn't let things get out of hand and we squeezed out just enough runs to get over. While the offense wasn't exactly sharp, they did do well in getting runners on base and taking walks. 6 in a game is good work, and getting the go-ahead through against Yates is impressive: he's been really really good this season. But walks will haunt you... Congrats to Kyle Farmer, who has been very sharp since coming back off the IL. It's been a rough season for him, but sure would be nice if he stays hot down the stretch and punishes LHP.
  19. jmlease1
    I just think you overrate the competitive advantage for Gagne's hitting when the AL had Cal Ripken, Alan Trammel, Tony Fernandez, and Julio Franco all playing SS, you know? Sure, it's a real advantage over the Angel Salazar's of the world, but not much of one against an Alfredo Griffin-type in '87.
  20. jmlease1
    Greg Gagne's career OPS+ was 83. He never had a season where he had an OPS+ over 100 (you know, average). Slightly more than half of his career bWAR was because of his defense. While he accumulated some decent value on offense for the time, it's because so many SS in his era couldn't hit their weight and they were skinny dudes. He wasn't a particularly good hitter, didn't take many walks, and was a pretty bad baserunner (look at that caught stealing %! ugh.) And I say this as someone who liked Greg Gagne a lot. but competitive advantage is why you leave Royce at 3B to figure it out longer than this. If he can hit like this and provide solid defense it gives you more options to have a deeper and stronger offense.
  21. jmlease1
    Yates doesn't throw lefty, but he'd still be a great add. I'd be very interested in Eovaldi or Scherzer, especially considering our injury situations. Less interested in any of the other RH relievers or Heaney (who hasn't actually been that good). but I kind of doubt that the Rangers will actually waive a bunch of guys or even if they do that the twins will even get a shot on some of these guys because of waiver priority.
  22. jmlease1
    I tend to agree on Lewis, especially because he missed so much time this season. It's not an indictment on him to not get promoted mid-season, especially when he's only had 9 starts in AA. he looks like he's starting to get himself back on track and the most important thing for him this season is to finish the year strong and healthy. he'll be in AAA soon enough. His last few outings have been good and it looks like he's starting to bring the hits down, but 11 BBs in his last 20 1/3 innings says to me that he's still not all the way there yet.
  23. jmlease1
    Players learn a new position in MLB all the time, though. And LF or 1B would be completely new positions for Royce (not sure he's ever played either in the minors), so are you suggesting we pull him down in AAA to learn LF?!? Royce hasn't been great at 3B, but he's been about as good as Miranda was in his first MLB season there...and Miranda has improved substantially with his defense over time. Patience is in order.
  24. jmlease1
    Miranda has been good at 3B this season and the metrics reflect it. he's very much improved his play there from his first year in the majors. but he's also played 63 games there this season 2/3 of his total, which has to have helped. Consistent time at a position matters especially for guys who are relatively inexperienced there. remember: Miranda spent most of his time at 2B in the minors and it was his preferred position and he didn't move off it until 2022.
  25. jmlease1
    Way too early to be looking to move Lewis down the defensive spectrum, and I hate seeing any speculation about the OF related to him because that was SUCH a THING on this site. He's struggled defensively this season, but was quality there last year. Seems much more likely that his problems at 3B this season have more to do with injuries, lack of playing time, and small sample size than any kind of definitive statement that "Royce Can't Play 3B". Royce only has 200 innings at 3B this season. Even if he stays healthy the rest of the year he's probably only going to get another 250 innings there this year. Too soon to panic, too soon to make the call based on such a small sample. He's got the talent to play there and the drive to succeed. Patience is required. And please, no more conversations about moving him to the OF!
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