jmlease1

Keirsey has speed and defense, but it's fair to be concerned about whether or not he can hit at the MLB level. He certainly had a fine year in Saint Paul, but it is a hitters environment. The biggest issue for him to claim a roster spot is he's LH and the Twins are in need of players who will thump LHP, and that's not Keirsey. He doesn't have extreme splits or anything, but he's notably better against RHP than LHP and that's likely to be more significant at the MLB level. All that said...I'd rather the Twins take a flier on Keirsey being able to fill as the backup CF than sign another Margot. Keirsey has nothing left to prove at AAA, that seems clear. Larnach, Buxton, and Wallner are the clear starters right now. Right now, there's probably 2 roster spots available for hitters: one will almost certainly be a 1B/DH or COF/1B. The other will likely need to be able to play some CF. I know they'd prefer a RH bat, but if they're not going to start Emma in MLB (I'd consider it depending on his health in spring training) then why not give Keirsey a shot? They'll still have options like Emma or Martin in AAA if he can't hit his weight, and it's not like we have money to throw around due to the self-imposed payroll limitations of the Pohlad Family.

I think if anyone offers Max a 2 year deal he should jump on it. I doubt anyone is signing him expecting him to play an inning of CF at this point, either. He should get an offer from someone; it's not like he can't play. But you're going to get a player who is inconsistent offensively, probably needs a platoon role, and will likely spend some time on the IL. He'd be a nice 4th OF...but I doubt he can adequately defend in CF at this point, so unless a team has another option for CF they're taking a risk there. Wish him luck. Ended up with a bit of a strange career, where he always looked like he was going to be a star (big, strong, fast) but only rarely produced like one. In 9 seasons with the Twins he was an above-average offensive player 3 times. A zero-time all-star, and it's hard to really argue that he was screwed over there. Never a bad player, and usually a capable starter. Frustrating power outages. Good contact skills. It will be interesting to see what the league thinks of him.

It's interesting that people are worried about Jax being upset and "pouting" or something, and not about Varland. Sure, Varland was bad last season as a starter, but he had shown much more success at MLB as a starter than Jax ever did. Varland is almost certainly being moved to the bullpen after being passed by Festa and Matthews and with others on the way, and the response from most Twins fans has been "good, he might be able to help in the bullpen". I'm sure he'd still prefer to start and isn't ready to give up on that, but around here we see more comments about how the Twins should have done this sooner, and I can't recall one single person being concerned about whether Varland will be happy about this. So, because the Twins moved Jax to the bullpen and he was great at it, we now should be deeply concerned about whether or not he'll be happy about staying there if he's interested in going back to something he had very poor success at? I'm not saying the Twins should ignore Jax, tell him to shut up and throw, etc. (and they're not stupid, and they'll talk to him like a person) But he doesn't get to decide this.

The only argument that works for making Jax a starter again is that over the last couple of years he's refined and improved his primary pitches (sweeper, 4-seamer, changeup, and sinker) enough that he's not the same pitcher he was as a starter. And it's true...but how much of his fastball improvement is based on his ability to throw it with max effort and never needing to pace himself any longer? The sweeper is unquestionably better, but can he throw it 40% of the time as a starter without making his elbow explode or making it so players can recognize it the 2nd-3rd time through? Is the changeup going to work when he has to throw to players who have seen it from the bench and at the plate in the same game? Is the sinker good enough to throw regularly throughout a game or is it effective only against 40-50% sweepers? Will he need to throw the curveball regularly and can he? He's been healthy and reliable as a reliever, but can he do that as a starter? I don't doubt that he will work hard and prepare properly, but it's a lot more innings that he'll need to throw to be an effective starter. If they have to protect him as a "5 and Fly" guy (or worse) because he can't get deep into games...what else are you doing to your bullpen? Bad enough that you're taking your best reliever out of the back end and making the end of games less certain, but what if he can't throw effectively long enough that the Twins need even more relief innings? Some fans will complain about Baldelli's "quick hook", but you'll complain a lot more if Jax gets blown up in the 5th-6th inning on the regular. There's very little track record to suggest that this will work. Sure, Johan Santana transitioned from the bullpen to a starter, but he was a) 25, and b) was still starting games for the Twins before he got a full-time spot in the rotation. Not a great comp. How did it work when the Twins moved Aguilera back to the rotation? (and Aguilera at least had some success as a starter in MLB) It's also important to remember that players are notoriously bad at being able to assess their own capacity and capability in this kind of way. They don't report minor injuries because they're convinced they'll be fine. How many pitchers per season ask to get pulled because they're gassed? (it's so rare that people write stories about it for days) Sometime players need to be protected from themselves. There's a lot of risk to moving Jax into the rotation. Expecting him to succeed and be better than SWR (which should be the bar, and it's not really all that high) would honestly make him a unicorn in MLB. Is that a smart bet, or is this all just a way to get the front office and coaching staff fired? It also exposes the bullpen, which should be a strength with Duran, Jax, Sands, Alcala, Topa, Stewart, Tonkin, and Varland as options. But pulling out one of the absolute best and most reliable pieces makes it tougher. Jax is also a military guy. The risk of him becoming discontented and a problem because the Twins decided not to make a move that is seriously risk-filled and probably detrimental to the team and possibly even the player is very low and is not even a marginally compelling argument.

Are the Twins obsessed with power or are they simply trying to get the most value out of the players they're drafting/acquiring? Martin hit for power in college (SLG% over .600 in his last two seasons) but it's most evaporated after he became a pro. Should the Twins be trying to see if they can add power production to a player as he develops if he's shown the ability? Or just to max his ability, knowing that slap hitters with no power have to have exceptional contact rates and control of the strike zone to be more than backup at the MLB level? If Martin's SLG is lower than his OB%, he's probably in trouble, even if he's running the bases effectively. They tried tinkering with Martin's approach in AA, and when it wasn't working for him, they let him go back to his earlier approach. Jenkins absolutely has the swing and frame to add more power to his game, but if he's hitting the ball hard to all fields and producing like he did at Cedar Rapids, they're not going to substantially alter his swing. If he starts swinging over the ball and hitting 2 bouncers to 2B a lot, they're going to work with him to elevate his swing more and hit the ball into the air more to produce more hits and more xbh. There seem to be people who want to pigeon hole the Twins development staff into very narrow categories and make sweeping statements about what kind of hitters they "like" and "try to turn players into", but the reality is the Twins aren't drafting players trying to turn them into something entirely new, and they're not dogmatic about the players the acquire: they want talent, first and foremost. They'll draft college sluggers when they see an efficiency and available talent. They'll take high school kids when the talent is there. If the Twins are looking to develop power with their hitters, it's because it's a) one of the most useful skills in consistently producing offense, and b) it's also one of the skills that you've seen players develop over time as they mature physically.

He's got all the tools. He's showing out on the field at every level (I don't count a cup of coffee in AA; talk to me after he has 100+ PAs in AA before anyone declares that he can't handle AA) and everything is looking great. Twins have been aggressive in promoting him (he's moving faster than Max Clark, whom he will inevitably get comped to) but not overly so. He'll start the season in AA, and I won't be surprised at all to see him in AAA this season, especially if he stays healthy. I think he can be a special hitter and I'm not worried at all about his power production. Kid hasn't even turned 20 yet. Please stay healthy.

This is ridiculous. The Twins didn't ruin Rooker's reputation; he shrunk his own value down by not being able to lay off sliders outside the zone. Twins didn't think he was going to fix it and dealt him. they didn't run around the league telling teams "screw this guy, he's trash!" He got a chance at 26 and was bad. he was basically the same guy the next season and didn't show anything to prove that he was different at 27 (and KC in particular needed a RH OF/DH). Everything suggests that he figured something out in 2023 and changed as a hitter (he's still an awful defender and is basically a DH now) and used a hot start to latch on with Oakland and he's been able to sustain & improve at the plate. Good for him, but anyone who saw this coming is full of it.

He's a really impressive talent, and while the defense might not hold up in CF for long...he's certainly able to cover it effectively right now. The big key for him is going to be on his ability to make contact consistently enough, especially on off-speed pitches. His patience and good strike zone recognition will help him keep from chasing too many sliders outside the zone, but he's going to have to be able to handle the ones that stay inside it to live up to his potential as a hitter. the other question for him is health, as it is with so many Twins prospects. I'm not going to hold 7 games in AAA in September against him when he basically hadn't played since May because of the thumb injury (which as noted still required an off-season procedure). but even so, he still put up a .400 OBP. I suspect he'll handle AAA pitching just fine, especially with the electronic strike zone. I think if he were RH he might be on the opening day roster as a 4th OF who played as much as the starters (resting Buxton, platooning with Larnach & Wallner against LHP, resting Wallner/Larnach, etc). I'm not sure the Twins will be comfortable with 3 LH OF, so he might not come up until someone picks up a knock. They also might want to see him get some reps in against AAA pitchers since he missed so much time last season. I wouldn't complain too much if they go that way, but I'd also be fine with them being more aggressive with him and bringing him up early. What I don't want to see is anyone else being the next man up in the OF/DH slot in 2025 unless Emma just isn't healthy again. There's no one else this close and this talented with as much potential impact as a hitter in AAA (with all due respect to Payton Eeles). he a huge talent. He'll have to make some adjustments and not be too passive at the plate. He'll need to show he can make consistent hard contact on more than just fastballs. But he looks more than capable. very exciting player.

Just make sure you bash SD and KC's front offices for making such a "colossal error" as well, I guess. Reality is probably more like he wasn't actually that good at the time, but made some adjustments and put in offseason work and it paid off when a team that had no hope of playoffs handed him a job and let him figure it out in real time at 28.

I think he likely would have gotten time at 3B, but because of the arm injury they weren't going to put him somewhere that was going test his arm when they knew he had an injury. He doesn't quite look like a "10th starter" super-utility guy who plays 6-7 spots and all of them well because he might not be rangy enough for CF and he's not looking like anything other than an emergency option at SS, but the bat might be good enough that he could drop in everywhere else (except catcher) and play good to plus defense while adding plenty of value. I could see him doing well in LF if they move him off the dirt. Pretty good for a 2nd round pick, and it was good to see him do well at AA. Looking forward to seeing how he does against LHP this year.

It's as if you're looking for any reason to discount successes that occurred for the Twins in the trade market and ensure that the leader of the Twins front office does not get credit for success. I think you seriously discount how "easy" it is to complete a trade regardless of who initiates the offer. I'll take your word that Cincy was heavily shopping Gray, but we still don't know (and will probably never know) who proposed Petty as an option. Same with Odorizzi/Palacios. For all we know, TB might have been calling about Luis Arraez or Brent Rooker and Falvey sold them on Palacios.

He's an exciting prospect and was terrific in what was his first full professional season. Sucks that he needed TJ and couldn't finish the AA season, but I think it was smart to time the surgery so he can hopefully play a full or close to full season in 2025. Deciding on a position for him is a little challenging: he has the tools to play 2B or CF, and I suspect he'd do fine at 3B depending on how his arm recovers from the surgery but he didn't get to play there in 2024 because of the injury. I'm sure he can slot in just fine in LF or 1B, but the Twins may not want to jump him down that far on the spectrum until they have a better feel for how his arm is. His power was down a little at AA, but it seems reasonable that the injury was starting to hold him back a little more. He seems to have a very good understanding of the strike zone for player his age and his approach at the plate is pretty advanced. If he can get better at punishing offspeed stuff he's going to be a pretty scary combination of power/speed/contact and that bat will play no matter where he lands. Twins have pushed him aggressively and he's responded to the challenge quite well. Hope he responds to surgery as well!

He looked like a AAAA player: good enough to wreck AAA pitchers, but not good enough to hit in MLB. He was chasing sliders and would get himself out, and added no value defensively. He repeated things in SD and KC: huge stats in AAA and couldn't even really get a look in MLB other than a cup of coffee, and both teams let him go. I mean, SD traded him for a terrible backup catcher and KC (who was going nowhere at the time) cut him. Good for him for getting things together in Oakland. Now, is it maybe easier to play for a team that has no expectations? Maybe. But he's also figured some things out in the last 2 years. But I'd push back on the idea that Rooker is a "Falvey Dream Pick". There seems to be some idea that the Twins under Falvey/Levine established some kind of hitter profile that they stick to like glue or something, and that it's significantly different from the rest of the league. Are there a lot of teams out there that don't want their hitters swinging hard?

That's an argument against having relievers in the Hall of Fame, not an argument against Billy Wagner, though. (WAR isn't a great metric for evaluating relievers, IMHO) I think the idea that relievers are a position and should be represented in the Hall is an interesting one, but already seems to be mostly done.

Most dominant left-handed reliever of all-time? As deadly at 36 as he was at 26? I can't hold the postseason against him too much: it's 11 innings over 7 playoff seasons. Rivera had 8 seasons where he threw more than 11 playoff innings. Too small of a sample to say for sure that "Wagner sucked in the postseason". He was a great great reliever, absolutely dominant year after year. And one of the things that we've seen in the last decade in MLB is that it's actually pretty hard to be a great reliever year in and year out. Wagner was great in basically every season but one, which is the one he got hurt and only pitched half the season.

Nathan had the bad luck of overlapping his relief career with Mariano. Nathan was an awesome reliever, one of the best in history, but he was always pitching in the shadow of Mariano, who was the best. And I say this as someone who despises the Yankees and their players with the white-hot intensity of a thousand suns going super nova. It's a bit like Tim Raines, who at least had the good fortune to not get the early boot off the BWAA ballot and gave people time to consider him properly and in Nathan's case after after the ballot had "cleared" a bit. Raines was one of the greatest leadoff men in history, but he played at the same time as the greatest: Rickey freakin' Henderson.. I'd vote for Nathan, who was dominant for a long time, overcoming injury and a late start as a reliever to be truly great. I'm a booster of Santana as well, because the peak was staggering. 5 straight years in the top 5 in Cy Young voting is insane, deserved both his wins and should have had a 3rd except voters didn't want to give him 3 straight and were still being fooled by "pitcher wins" as a meaningful statistic to show the value of a starter. The Koufax comparisons are fairly close in a lot of ways. Koufax has the postseason heroics to push him over and walked off on top, which added to the legend: Johan battled his way through one last season after the catastrophic injury and instead his last MLB time wasn't nearly as positive. Narratives matter in HoF voting. Johan also didn't have teams as strong and the opportunity to pitch in the WS. Hardly his fault the Mets teams weren't impressive and his Twins teams were pretty unlucky (what could have been if Liriano's elbow doesn't explode in 2006!). But when you look at their records at bRef you see a lot of the same things: lots and lots of "black type" in their primes as they led their leagues in every good pitching stat that mattered. I hope they'll both get good consideration, but I suspect they won't get through. It's not easy on these committees, and a lot of times you need a narrative (or former teammates and coaches as voters) to push you through. Both are worthy, but I think they'll be left out because the barrier is so high and there's little time or avenues to build a campaign and a narrative. Their cases would be stronger if they'd gotten to spend more time on the BWAA ballot, I think. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe the committee will see the injustice of them getting pushed off too quickly. I hope so, because they are deserving.

Adding a proven LHP who doesn't get beat up by any righty who can hold a bat is the biggest need for this bullpen, other than decent health. Heck, the Twins don't need to get lucky and have good to great health from the bullpen to have a strong group, just not have every coin flip go against them. Varland is for sure going to be in the bullpen. Will he start the season there? I suspect he will, and the team will risk Henriquez getting grabbed by someone else. But that's just a hunch. We'll see where Topa and Stewart are health-wise: if 100% healthy they're in the 'pen. If not, maybe we see Topa stashed in AAA for a few weeks to work his way back and Stewart on the IL. The basis is there for a strong bullpen, especially if they add a LHP. Funderburk is decent depth that way and Moran certainly has the talent (but may need some AAA time to get used to pitching again).

I liked the pick at the time and haven't changed my mind on it, but there's still all the usual risks associated with a high school pitcher. He's got plenty to work on but has absolutely flashed the talent that made him a high draft pick. I wouldn't have him quite this high (it's almost all projection right now, so to me he's more like a top ten guy rather than top 5) but I get the excitement and interest around his ability. He needs innings and reps IMHO. Hopefully he stays healthy and can throw 90-100 innings and improve his command. I think he'll start back in Ft. Myers, but will move up to Cedar Rapids by midseason at the latest. I'll be curious to see how he does against LH hitter this year; he got bashed around by them pretty good in 2024, so figuring out which offerings can help him against lefties will be part of his development process this season, I think. Should be an interesting year for Soto. He passed the "lemon test" I'd say; this season will tell us more about what his path looks like as a prospect.

I'll be curious to see what Topa signed for, but I'm not surprised they are bringing him back. Hopefully they've got a good feel for his medicals and he'll actually be able to really pitch for us in 2025. Talent and ceiling are there, but the health has to be a concern. Hopefully we got him under projections too. I probably wouldn't have tendered Tonkin at $1.5M, but I'm fine with bringing him back at $1M. That's barely above mininum salary, seems fine for a guy who can compete for a middle relief role. It's sad that we have to be so tight that 500K matters so much, but that's where we are with the ownership.

Headrick and Henriquez are already on the 40-man roster and were not subject to the Rule 5 Draft. They are pre-arb, so we could non-tender them a contract and waive them at no cost. If they sign a new contract for 2025 and we later waive them, we're still on the hook for their salaries if no one else picks them up. (I think)

I think we're a season too early for this article. 2026 it'll make more sense to me, especially if Walker Jenkins continues his rise and Emma has been knocking the cover off the ball in AAA and gotten some time in MLB in 2025. While I'm enthusiastic about Emma's ability and think he'll get plenty of opportunity in the Twins OF in 2025, handing him a starting job seems...aggressive. I like seeing prospects earn their way in to MLB opportunities by destroying their level, rather than being handed a job on scholarship. The lineup could use a little more RH thump, but 1B/DH seems to be the most logical place to do that...and even if the team cobbles together the payroll space to add that type of hitter and they play some corner OF, I don't know that it makes Larnach or Wallner redundant yet. Healthy, Larnach is a pretty solid outfielder, so if his turf toe (which always sounds dumb, but is a really painful injury that makes running challenging) is healed, he's quite capable of handling LF. Wallner is very well suited to RF with that cannon of an arm, and if we have Buxton patrolling CF it will help him for sure. Wallner has produced in the lineup. Aesthetically, he's going to infuriate a segment of Twins fans for as long as he's on the team, but the stats really don't lie: dude can hit, and can produce like you need a RF to produce. OPS+ of 149 is a serious number. That's better than any player on Cleveland last season. the reason to move either is if someone makes you a trade offer you can't refuse. not because they're redundant.

they don't need the roster spots so badly that there's a real reason to non-tender Headrick or Henriquez. I mean, we weren't exactly short of space for the Rule 5. I honestly have no idea whether Tonkin can handle higher leverage roles at all, so my inclination is to non-tender him because a) I doubt he'll get more on the open market, so he'd still be an option to re-sign if you want, and b) it's really hard to know just how impactful he can be. He looks like just a guy, might be useful to pitch 1-2 innings of middle relief, but limited upside. he was pretty good for the Yankees, and they cut him. He was bad for the Mets and smoke & mirrors for the Twins (ERA was ok, but that WHIP?) but both are very small sample sizes. 2023 he was...ok. $1.5M shouldn't be an issue but on this team, with this payroll, and these owners...it is. Topa has one excellent season and a lot of injuries. But he was excellent in 2023, and looked good in the tiny sample we have for 2024. Higher ceiling, lower floor. I would tender him, but we'll know what the Twins (who know more than me) think of his health based on their decision. If they non-tender Topa it'll be because they think he has little to no chance of being health in 2025. If they keep him, their assessment of his medicals says he'll pitch.

The talent level is high, but I agree: we do need to see whether he's capable of pitching deeper in games and holding up the 2nd and 3rd time through a lineup consistently. What do his pitches look like after 75 of them, and can he get through one more inning at that point? I know he's had some injury concerns, and maybe we'll find that keeping his workload down in his development stages will pay out with better health now that he's closer to MLB (and eventually in the majors) but we need to see him throw in the 6th inning a lot more or he will look more like a reliever to me too. He is really talented though! I think Morris and Lewis are both more advanced as starting pitching options (and Festa and Matthews for sure), but Raya might get a shot before either because of his addition to the 40-man. I can live with that, because they're not all that far off. A starting pitching pipeline pecking order of Festa, Matthews, Raya, Adams, Morris, and Lewis is pretty good and opens up flexibility to move Paddack for salary relief if needed

here's the thing, though: as long as we don't move Jax back to the rotation (which I maintain would be a dreadful mistake) we don't need Stewart to be a savior. With Varland moving into the 'pen it should also reduce how much we're counting on him or Topa to be healthy and whatever we get out of them is whatever we get. Duran, Jax, Sands, Alcala are all pitchers capable of throwing in high leverage roles. Varland can be used like Sands was last season: lower leverage early, increasing leverage roles as he proves his capability. Stewart lands as a 5th guy at the back of the bullpen instead needing him to be the 2nd or 3rd. That's the advantage of Jax stepping up (and staying in the bullpen) and Sands and Alcala being healthy and impactful. If we can find a LHP that is acceptable against RH hitters, this bullpen should be quite good. Unfortunately, you simply can't run out a guy like Okert, who might be death to lefties, but makes all righties look like Mookie Betts, any longer. Moran will likely need some time to get back into a groove after the injury and surgery, Funderbruk isn't reliable enough yet, Thielbar looks cooked even if we wanted him back, and Prielipp needs more minor league innings. But if we can get that solid LHP to add to this bullpen, they're going to be in good shape even if Stewart or Topa aren't ready for Opening Day. No more Jacksons, no more Okerts. keep Jax in the 'pen where he can be great.

The more I think about it, the more sense it makes to have added him to the 40-man. Pitchers at AAA with any kind of upside are vulnerable, and even if Adams might not be able to make it as a starter (and he's further down on the pecking order of Twins starting pitching prospects) he's absolutely going to get a shot, and if it doesn't work for him starting in MLB he'll get a chance to relieve. Having been durable and effective in the minors already most teams could find a spot for him in the bullpen this season even if they're not ready to have him start for them. Other teams (rebuilding ones) would take a chance on him as the 5th guy, have him be a swingman, etc to see if they can get some value off the Twins draft and development. He's got value and probably would have been taken. Seems like a good idea to protect him, even if he's not as hot a prospect as Morris or Lewis. It'll be interesting to see how the Rule 5 Draft goes. Those 26-man slots are precious.