jmlease1

Personally, I think that Brooks Lee is going to lock down 3B for the next several year at least, but happy to have Amick developing. Looks like he had a solid start and it'll be interesting to see how fast he's pushed and how well he does this season. You can never have too much talent.

I can't think of an article more designed to bring the "I hate Falvey/Rocco" people on this board out in force this year. not seeing a roster spot for Amed Rosario on this team: he's not really a 1B, has limited experience in the OF and can't play CF. he's only a fit if Castro gets traded. Maybe that happens, maybe not but until it does Amed Rosario ain't gonna be a Twin.

Because Paddack had a rookie season where he made 26 starts, threw 140 innings and had an ERA+ of 126. Maybe he'll never get back to that because of all the injuries, but you've seen flashes with the twins that make it easy to talk yourself into it. And the floor is pretty good on Paddack: even if he's never back to where he was, he can still eat up innings as a 5th starter or shift to the bullpen. At $7.5M, that's not crazy money at all and the upside is pretty good. Since the self-imposed payroll limits of the Pohlads make money so tight this season and I think the upside for Festa is high...I'd take the risk and move on from Paddack, especially with Matthews, Raya, lewis, Adams, Morris, etc waiting in the wings. If I'm a team in need of a cheap starter to take the 5th slot, I'd probably be interested in taking a flyer on Paddack for the role on a 1 year deal for $7.5M. If I'm the A's, had bad starters last season and need to spend more or get cut out of revenue sharing...this might be a bargain!

It does, because a) a reasonably healthy Correa isn't a 3 bWAR player; he's a 5+ one, and b) the increasing value of WAR isn't really linear. The value of that all-star level player (and despite the nice honor, being a good guy, and having a fine 1st half...Castro didn't play at an all-star level) really makes a bigger difference than just 1.5 bWAR because it's so much harder to find those players. It's especially important in the playoffs. (The only reason the team's biggest concern is operating income is because ownership has made it so. they pocketed the big profits during the cheap payroll years and refuse to take losses. They'd rather use the twins for cash to prop up other parts of their business empire than the other way around. That's basically inarguable at this point, and so the argument about operating revenue is kind of a non-starter for fans, as it should be) Considering how desperately the Rays needed another offensive producer and got little other than defense at SS...yeah, I'd say Carlos Correa would have been worth $33M to them. Would they have paid it? no, because their ownership is cheaper than the Pohlads. but they would have ended up a lot closer to playoff spot. The A's? they still would have been bad, because their starting pitching was remarkably dreadful, but Correa would have made a difference there too. Again, their ownership is somehow significantly worst than the Pohlads so they never would have paid it, but...Correa was, is, and will be a difference maker.

I don't hate on moves like this. You're buying a lottery ticket, and if there are some significant bullpen injuries (or ineffectiveness), he might make an impact. Smart teams look for these opportunities to supplement their upper minors and the cost is pretty low; the biggest issue is if the Twins don't have a spot for him when the opt-out hits, he'll leave and then some people will be Big Mad if he does anything for anyone else. Oh, well. My only issue is when it shakes out that all you've been able to do to improve your team is buy half a dozen or so of these lottery tickets and then you need one of them to pay out rather than looking at them as a bonus and/or extra insurance.

Well, I can't think of any better way for the Twins to wave the white flag of surrender and guarantee even worse attendance than to trade Correa. Highly doubt the Twins would be taking on anywhere near the same cost in contracts in return, and I would expect Vazquez and Paddack to go in salary dumps shortly thereafter, with ownership pocketing the savings in one last cash grab as they sell the team, should this occur. I hope this isn't serious, and it's just the "well, we'll always listen, I guess" sort of move because losing our SS while this team is still competitive, without a clear replacement in place (I like Lee a lot, but I'd much rather have him at 3B) and knowing that our ownership will not spend would be a disaster. Hope Correa tells them "I'm not interested in going anywhere this year" and ends this.

And yet, Buxton and Correa were both substantially more impactful players last season, even playing fewer games. Teams will prefer Correa and Buxton, because they consistently add value beyond batting average. Arraez also grounded into 18 double plays last season, more than double Buxton and Correa combined. Maybe Arraez started hitting for himself rather than the team, chasing that batting title? Look, I like Arraez. seems like a good dude, and he's super fun to watch. But while the floor is high with him because of his outstanding contact skills, the ceiling is lower because of his lack of speed or defense, limits on his power, struggles vs LHP (career .681 OPS vs LHP), and increasing disinterest in taking walks to supplement his OBP. If I were a playoff team, i'd want to find a role for him, because his contact skills play up more in close games...but it would be tough to find a full-time role for him if he has another season like last year, batting title or no.

Sure? But you're wrong about the Twins: they just aren't afraid of Ks, because an out is an out. They'd prefer more hits, but they also know it's a lot easier to actually score runs when you don't have to string together 3 singles to get 1 run and 5+ hits in an inning to put up a crooked number. If Arraez can play a consistent 2B and slug over .400, then teams would be clamoring for his services. If he took walks like he when he was a Twin in combination with those awesome batting averages (and can either slug over .400 consistently and/or play something other than DH) then his price tag is a lot more palatable. The lack of speed is a big limiter; how often is he going first to third on those creaky knees? Or scoring from second on a single to right? He's not stealing bases. But if he's a slap-hitting DH whose on-base % is only around .350 what are you getting for $10M? A very empty BA that's fun to watch, but doesn't actually score you many runs.

Mauer also had BB% of 11.8. Arraez is at 6.9%. Joe was on base a lot more: OBP over .400 6 times before the concussion. Arraez has never done it. Mauer also had a SLG% of .439 so there were a LOT of doubles in there. No one is saying Arraez isn't a useful player, but his ceiling is limited if he can't play effective defense, doesn't draw walks on top of his singles, and isn't hitting enough doubles (and triples) to supplement his SLG, especially since he isn't adding speed as a factor to his game (which also limits the number of doubles and triples he can hit). As he gets more expensive, that's a challenge.

Arraez is complicated. If his thumb is healed and he's able to show a little pop in his bat again, he'll give good value to a team as a hitter; he doesn't need to hit a pile of homers, but he also needs to be more than just singles. Because while all of the hits are great, he's not taking many walks to go along with them, so his OBP is reliant on him getting a massive amount of those singles. If his achy knees allow him to play 2B effectively, then his value ticks up a lot more. A no-power, no-walk 1B/DH is pretty tough to sustain, especially at $10M. Carlos Santana was significantly more impactful at 1B for the Twins in 2024 at half the price. You have to realistic about what you're going to get with Arraez: lots of singles, tons of contact. limited speed and defense. limited power. He's also a poor hitter against LHP, so really should get plenty of breaks there, if not a straight platoon. Add it up and you can see why he's moving around. His elite skills aren't the ones that are the most impactful over the course of a season. He will be more impactful in the playoffs, when playing for 1 run is more common and his ability to generate contact and hits is more valuable. Twins made the right call in trading him. We'll see if Miami got the kind of prospects that made it worth dealing him in their latest fire sale. But in an era of budget cuts it's easy to see why SD might try and move on.

that is my real fear with any of these signings with marginal veterans. He's probably not going to hit better than Miranda, but Miranda also shouldn't be running out into the OF. He looks like the sort of player you grab just before spring training starts for below market because he hasn't found a job yet. (aka, the Donovan Solano) I definitely don't want to run out and grab him in December. Might look better (and cheaper) in Feb

This is one of those ones where that's a lot of MFing Ifs. IF Canha can still play a solid corner OF...IF Canha's struggles last season were just injury related...IF Canha can stay healthy, IF Canha hasn't lost all of the pop in his bat... There are worse choices, but hard to get excited about him taking ABs away from someone like Miranda (if Jose is healthy). My biggest concern with any signing like this is if he flops, will the team be able to let him go, or will they keep throwing him out there to flail. While their persistence has worked sometimes (Carlos Santana after a terrible start, Max Kepler after an awful start where he looked lost), it's failed others (Margot, Farmer, Gallo...). The difficulty in knowing when a guy will recover from a bad start vs chasing that bad bet all season makes me nervous.

well, that's the rub, right? Are we making some moves to free up cash to sign a real OF or 1B option or not? Until we know what's going on there, Keirsey will have to sit in limbo. I think there's a fair amount of agreement around here that the desire for minor league depth isn't worth giving a roster spot to a reclamation project veteran and that's really what's a stake here: the roster spot. because there are only going to be 13 position players on the MLB roster and right now 10 are for sure spoken for, and maybe 11 (depends on what people think of Julien & Lee and whether either starts the season in AAA; I think there's pretty good odds of both being on the opening day roster, which leaves only 2 spots open. But there's a fair case that one might get pushed back down; I think there's zero chance that both do). Considering our Pohlad imposed payroll limitations, there's very little room to add veterans anyways; 1 seems likely, 2 seems to require a fairly significant trade, and 3 means something pretty substantial, IMHO. Of course the other issue Keirsey has to face is whether the Twins might prefer to go with Helman in this kind of slot and look at him as a RH utility guy with maybe less OF defense but more positional flexibility. Because it seems unlikely that they go with two unproven guys to fill bench roles. Regardless, I'd prefer to roll with Helman or Keirsey as the 13th man than throw extra cash at veteran reclamation project with a fairly high chance to flaming out and being a sunk cost that sits on the roster for months while they try to get their money back on him. There's enough depth at AAA (and with rising guys from AA) that we're unlikely to run out of OF this season. I'd rather assume risk on young players in the system than bringing in injured/marginal vets, because without more payroll space we're taking on risk somewhere. Give Keirsey or Helman a real shot.

Keirsey has speed and defense, but it's fair to be concerned about whether or not he can hit at the MLB level. He certainly had a fine year in Saint Paul, but it is a hitters environment. The biggest issue for him to claim a roster spot is he's LH and the Twins are in need of players who will thump LHP, and that's not Keirsey. He doesn't have extreme splits or anything, but he's notably better against RHP than LHP and that's likely to be more significant at the MLB level. All that said...I'd rather the Twins take a flier on Keirsey being able to fill as the backup CF than sign another Margot. Keirsey has nothing left to prove at AAA, that seems clear. Larnach, Buxton, and Wallner are the clear starters right now. Right now, there's probably 2 roster spots available for hitters: one will almost certainly be a 1B/DH or COF/1B. The other will likely need to be able to play some CF. I know they'd prefer a RH bat, but if they're not going to start Emma in MLB (I'd consider it depending on his health in spring training) then why not give Keirsey a shot? They'll still have options like Emma or Martin in AAA if he can't hit his weight, and it's not like we have money to throw around due to the self-imposed payroll limitations of the Pohlad Family.

I think if anyone offers Max a 2 year deal he should jump on it. I doubt anyone is signing him expecting him to play an inning of CF at this point, either. He should get an offer from someone; it's not like he can't play. But you're going to get a player who is inconsistent offensively, probably needs a platoon role, and will likely spend some time on the IL. He'd be a nice 4th OF...but I doubt he can adequately defend in CF at this point, so unless a team has another option for CF they're taking a risk there. Wish him luck. Ended up with a bit of a strange career, where he always looked like he was going to be a star (big, strong, fast) but only rarely produced like one. In 9 seasons with the Twins he was an above-average offensive player 3 times. A zero-time all-star, and it's hard to really argue that he was screwed over there. Never a bad player, and usually a capable starter. Frustrating power outages. Good contact skills. It will be interesting to see what the league thinks of him.

It's interesting that people are worried about Jax being upset and "pouting" or something, and not about Varland. Sure, Varland was bad last season as a starter, but he had shown much more success at MLB as a starter than Jax ever did. Varland is almost certainly being moved to the bullpen after being passed by Festa and Matthews and with others on the way, and the response from most Twins fans has been "good, he might be able to help in the bullpen". I'm sure he'd still prefer to start and isn't ready to give up on that, but around here we see more comments about how the Twins should have done this sooner, and I can't recall one single person being concerned about whether Varland will be happy about this. So, because the Twins moved Jax to the bullpen and he was great at it, we now should be deeply concerned about whether or not he'll be happy about staying there if he's interested in going back to something he had very poor success at? I'm not saying the Twins should ignore Jax, tell him to shut up and throw, etc. (and they're not stupid, and they'll talk to him like a person) But he doesn't get to decide this.

The only argument that works for making Jax a starter again is that over the last couple of years he's refined and improved his primary pitches (sweeper, 4-seamer, changeup, and sinker) enough that he's not the same pitcher he was as a starter. And it's true...but how much of his fastball improvement is based on his ability to throw it with max effort and never needing to pace himself any longer? The sweeper is unquestionably better, but can he throw it 40% of the time as a starter without making his elbow explode or making it so players can recognize it the 2nd-3rd time through? Is the changeup going to work when he has to throw to players who have seen it from the bench and at the plate in the same game? Is the sinker good enough to throw regularly throughout a game or is it effective only against 40-50% sweepers? Will he need to throw the curveball regularly and can he? He's been healthy and reliable as a reliever, but can he do that as a starter? I don't doubt that he will work hard and prepare properly, but it's a lot more innings that he'll need to throw to be an effective starter. If they have to protect him as a "5 and Fly" guy (or worse) because he can't get deep into games...what else are you doing to your bullpen? Bad enough that you're taking your best reliever out of the back end and making the end of games less certain, but what if he can't throw effectively long enough that the Twins need even more relief innings? Some fans will complain about Baldelli's "quick hook", but you'll complain a lot more if Jax gets blown up in the 5th-6th inning on the regular. There's very little track record to suggest that this will work. Sure, Johan Santana transitioned from the bullpen to a starter, but he was a) 25, and b) was still starting games for the Twins before he got a full-time spot in the rotation. Not a great comp. How did it work when the Twins moved Aguilera back to the rotation? (and Aguilera at least had some success as a starter in MLB) It's also important to remember that players are notoriously bad at being able to assess their own capacity and capability in this kind of way. They don't report minor injuries because they're convinced they'll be fine. How many pitchers per season ask to get pulled because they're gassed? (it's so rare that people write stories about it for days) Sometime players need to be protected from themselves. There's a lot of risk to moving Jax into the rotation. Expecting him to succeed and be better than SWR (which should be the bar, and it's not really all that high) would honestly make him a unicorn in MLB. Is that a smart bet, or is this all just a way to get the front office and coaching staff fired? It also exposes the bullpen, which should be a strength with Duran, Jax, Sands, Alcala, Topa, Stewart, Tonkin, and Varland as options. But pulling out one of the absolute best and most reliable pieces makes it tougher. Jax is also a military guy. The risk of him becoming discontented and a problem because the Twins decided not to make a move that is seriously risk-filled and probably detrimental to the team and possibly even the player is very low and is not even a marginally compelling argument.

Are the Twins obsessed with power or are they simply trying to get the most value out of the players they're drafting/acquiring? Martin hit for power in college (SLG% over .600 in his last two seasons) but it's most evaporated after he became a pro. Should the Twins be trying to see if they can add power production to a player as he develops if he's shown the ability? Or just to max his ability, knowing that slap hitters with no power have to have exceptional contact rates and control of the strike zone to be more than backup at the MLB level? If Martin's SLG is lower than his OB%, he's probably in trouble, even if he's running the bases effectively. They tried tinkering with Martin's approach in AA, and when it wasn't working for him, they let him go back to his earlier approach. Jenkins absolutely has the swing and frame to add more power to his game, but if he's hitting the ball hard to all fields and producing like he did at Cedar Rapids, they're not going to substantially alter his swing. If he starts swinging over the ball and hitting 2 bouncers to 2B a lot, they're going to work with him to elevate his swing more and hit the ball into the air more to produce more hits and more xbh. There seem to be people who want to pigeon hole the Twins development staff into very narrow categories and make sweeping statements about what kind of hitters they "like" and "try to turn players into", but the reality is the Twins aren't drafting players trying to turn them into something entirely new, and they're not dogmatic about the players the acquire: they want talent, first and foremost. They'll draft college sluggers when they see an efficiency and available talent. They'll take high school kids when the talent is there. If the Twins are looking to develop power with their hitters, it's because it's a) one of the most useful skills in consistently producing offense, and b) it's also one of the skills that you've seen players develop over time as they mature physically.

He's got all the tools. He's showing out on the field at every level (I don't count a cup of coffee in AA; talk to me after he has 100+ PAs in AA before anyone declares that he can't handle AA) and everything is looking great. Twins have been aggressive in promoting him (he's moving faster than Max Clark, whom he will inevitably get comped to) but not overly so. He'll start the season in AA, and I won't be surprised at all to see him in AAA this season, especially if he stays healthy. I think he can be a special hitter and I'm not worried at all about his power production. Kid hasn't even turned 20 yet. Please stay healthy.

This is ridiculous. The Twins didn't ruin Rooker's reputation; he shrunk his own value down by not being able to lay off sliders outside the zone. Twins didn't think he was going to fix it and dealt him. they didn't run around the league telling teams "screw this guy, he's trash!" He got a chance at 26 and was bad. he was basically the same guy the next season and didn't show anything to prove that he was different at 27 (and KC in particular needed a RH OF/DH). Everything suggests that he figured something out in 2023 and changed as a hitter (he's still an awful defender and is basically a DH now) and used a hot start to latch on with Oakland and he's been able to sustain & improve at the plate. Good for him, but anyone who saw this coming is full of it.

He's a really impressive talent, and while the defense might not hold up in CF for long...he's certainly able to cover it effectively right now. The big key for him is going to be on his ability to make contact consistently enough, especially on off-speed pitches. His patience and good strike zone recognition will help him keep from chasing too many sliders outside the zone, but he's going to have to be able to handle the ones that stay inside it to live up to his potential as a hitter. the other question for him is health, as it is with so many Twins prospects. I'm not going to hold 7 games in AAA in September against him when he basically hadn't played since May because of the thumb injury (which as noted still required an off-season procedure). but even so, he still put up a .400 OBP. I suspect he'll handle AAA pitching just fine, especially with the electronic strike zone. I think if he were RH he might be on the opening day roster as a 4th OF who played as much as the starters (resting Buxton, platooning with Larnach & Wallner against LHP, resting Wallner/Larnach, etc). I'm not sure the Twins will be comfortable with 3 LH OF, so he might not come up until someone picks up a knock. They also might want to see him get some reps in against AAA pitchers since he missed so much time last season. I wouldn't complain too much if they go that way, but I'd also be fine with them being more aggressive with him and bringing him up early. What I don't want to see is anyone else being the next man up in the OF/DH slot in 2025 unless Emma just isn't healthy again. There's no one else this close and this talented with as much potential impact as a hitter in AAA (with all due respect to Payton Eeles). he a huge talent. He'll have to make some adjustments and not be too passive at the plate. He'll need to show he can make consistent hard contact on more than just fastballs. But he looks more than capable. very exciting player.

Just make sure you bash SD and KC's front offices for making such a "colossal error" as well, I guess. Reality is probably more like he wasn't actually that good at the time, but made some adjustments and put in offseason work and it paid off when a team that had no hope of playoffs handed him a job and let him figure it out in real time at 28.

I think he likely would have gotten time at 3B, but because of the arm injury they weren't going to put him somewhere that was going test his arm when they knew he had an injury. He doesn't quite look like a "10th starter" super-utility guy who plays 6-7 spots and all of them well because he might not be rangy enough for CF and he's not looking like anything other than an emergency option at SS, but the bat might be good enough that he could drop in everywhere else (except catcher) and play good to plus defense while adding plenty of value. I could see him doing well in LF if they move him off the dirt. Pretty good for a 2nd round pick, and it was good to see him do well at AA. Looking forward to seeing how he does against LHP this year.

It's as if you're looking for any reason to discount successes that occurred for the Twins in the trade market and ensure that the leader of the Twins front office does not get credit for success. I think you seriously discount how "easy" it is to complete a trade regardless of who initiates the offer. I'll take your word that Cincy was heavily shopping Gray, but we still don't know (and will probably never know) who proposed Petty as an option. Same with Odorizzi/Palacios. For all we know, TB might have been calling about Luis Arraez or Brent Rooker and Falvey sold them on Palacios.

He's an exciting prospect and was terrific in what was his first full professional season. Sucks that he needed TJ and couldn't finish the AA season, but I think it was smart to time the surgery so he can hopefully play a full or close to full season in 2025. Deciding on a position for him is a little challenging: he has the tools to play 2B or CF, and I suspect he'd do fine at 3B depending on how his arm recovers from the surgery but he didn't get to play there in 2024 because of the injury. I'm sure he can slot in just fine in LF or 1B, but the Twins may not want to jump him down that far on the spectrum until they have a better feel for how his arm is. His power was down a little at AA, but it seems reasonable that the injury was starting to hold him back a little more. He seems to have a very good understanding of the strike zone for player his age and his approach at the plate is pretty advanced. If he can get better at punishing offspeed stuff he's going to be a pretty scary combination of power/speed/contact and that bat will play no matter where he lands. Twins have pushed him aggressively and he's responded to the challenge quite well. Hope he responds to surgery as well!